基于土地利用变化情景的城市暴雨洪涝灾害风险评估——以深圳市茅洲河流域为例

近年来频发的暴雨洪涝成为威胁城市可持续发展的主要灾害类型,而土地利用变化改变了区域原有的景观结构和水文过程,是城市暴雨洪涝灾害风险加剧的重要诱因,定量探讨土地利用变化对暴雨洪涝灾害及其风险影响具有重要意义。以深圳市茅洲河流域为例,基于CLUE-S模型、SCS模型及等体积淹没算法等,对12种暴雨洪涝致灾-土地利用承灾情景下的城市暴雨洪涝灾害风险进行定量模拟。研究结果显示,相同土地利用空间格局下城市暴雨洪涝灾害随暴雨致灾危险性增加风险加剧显著;在同等致灾危险性水平下随建设用地面积增加,中等风险和高风险区面积均呈现较为明显的增加趋势,中、高风险区面积与建设用地面积的增加率表现出较高的协同变化特征;以50年遇危险性水平为例,随着建设用地面积由基期的15368.85hm~2增加至近期16076.07hm~2和远期16750.89hm~2,高风险区面积由254.07hm~2增加至276.48hm~2和286.2hm~2。由此可见,尽管暴雨强度的增加是城市暴雨洪涝灾害风险加剧的根本诱因,但是以建设用地面积增加为表征的土地利用变化对暴雨洪涝灾害风险的影响不容忽视。     

Biomass production in plantations: Land constraints increase dependency on irrigation water

Integrated assessment model scenarios project rising deployment of biomass‐using energy systems in climate change mitigation scenarios. But there is concern that bioenergy deployment will increase competition for land and water resources and obstruct objectives such as nature protection, the preservation of carbon‐rich ecosystems, and food security. To study the relative importance of water and land availability as biophysical constraints to bioenergy deployment at a global scale, we use a process‐detailed, spatially explicit biosphere model to simulate rain‐fed and irrigated biomass plantation supply along with the corresponding water consumption for different scenarios concerning availability of land and water resources. We find that global plantation supplies are mainly limited by land availability and only secondarily by freshwater availability. As a theoretical upper limit, if all suitable lands on Earth, besides land currently used in agriculture, were available for bioenergy plantations (“Food first” scenario), total plantation supply would be in the range 2,010–2,300 EJ/year depending on water availability and use. Excluding all currently protected areas reduces the supply by 60%. Excluding also areas where conversion to biomass plantations causes carbon emissions that might be considered unacceptably high will reduce the total plantation supply further. For example, excluding all areas where soil and vegetation carbon stocks exceed 150 tC/ha (“Carbon threshold savanna” scenario) reduces the supply to 170–290 EJ/year. With decreasing land availability, the amount of water available for irrigation becomes vitally important. In the least restrictive land availability scenario (“Food first”), up to 77% of global plantation biomass supply is obtained without additional irrigation. This share is reduced to 31% for the most restrictive “Carbon threshold savanna” scenario. The results highlight the critical—and geographically varying—importance of co‐managing land and water resources if substantial contributions of bioenergy are to be reached in mitigation portfolios.     

湖泊型流域洪涝灾害经济损失多情景模拟——以南四湖流域为例

洪涝灾害情景模拟与损失预估对湖泊型流域防洪减灾和可持续发展具有重要意义。以我国典型的湖泊型流域南四湖流域为例,利用CA-Markov模型预测2030年三种用地情景,采用P-III型概率曲线构建10、20、50、100 a四个重现期强降雨情景,得到12种组合情景;通过InVEST模型和等体积淹没法量化不同情景的径流和淹没深度;在各产业GDP空间预测的基础上计算12种情景的洪涝直接经济损失。结果表明:(1) CA-Markov模型在南四湖流域的土地利用模拟精度较高,三种用地情景的各地类变化显著;(2)用地变化对流域洪涝灾害的影响显著,其中城镇发展情景下洪涝灾害风险最大,而生态保护情景风险最低;(3)暴雨强度会明显增加各用地情景的经济损失,但增幅在50 a重现期后有所减缓;生态保护情景的经济损失最少,介于97.39-128.81亿元之间,与其他情景相比,该情景可在一定程度上减少洪灾损失。为此,在气候变化背景下湖泊型流域可持续发展应充分考虑土地利用变化对洪涝灾害风险的影响,合理扩张城镇建设用地,优化布局生态用地,充分发挥国土空间规划在防洪减灾方面的作用。     

Predicting the potential distribution of a riparian invasive plant: the effects of changing climate,flood regimes and land‐use patterns

Climate change is likely to affect plants in multiple ways, but predicting the consequences for habitat suitability requires a process‐based understanding of the interactions. This is at odds with existing approaches that are mostly phenomenological and largely restricted to predicting the effects of changing temperature and rainfall on species distributions at a coarse spatial scale. We examine the multiple effects of climate change, including predicting the effects of altered flood regimes and land‐use change, on the potential distribution of the invasive riparian species lippia (Phyla canescens) across a 26 000 km² catchment in eastern Australia. We determined habitat suitability for lippia by combining process‐understanding of experts and an eco‐physiological bioclimatic model within a Bayesian belief network. The bioclimatic model predicted substantial changes in habitat suitability by 2070 under both a wetter (Echam Mark 3) and drier (Hadley Centre Mark 2) climate change scenario, but only the more likely drier scenario reduced suitability in our test region. The area suitable for lippia was predicted to increase at least threefold with increased flooding under a wet climate scenario, although this would be partially negated by land‐use change to cultivation. The region would become unsuitable to lippia with reduced flooding under a drier scenario irrespective of land‐use changes, although existing populations would persist if grazing persisted. Independent field validation verified model structure and parameterization, and therefore the opinion of experts, but identified site‐scale deficiencies in the available environmental data layers. Model predictions suggest that adaptation options for managing lippia will be greatly reduced under a drying scenario, but identify potential restoration opportunities under either scenario. This work highlights the value of predictive models that incorporate process‐understanding at sufficiently fine spatial resolution to capture the important processes underpinning habitat suitability.     

Using Malmquist Indices to evaluate environmental impacts of alternative land development scenarios

The degree to which regions can produce desirable socioeconomic and environmental outcomes while consuming fewer resources and producing fewer undesirable outcomes can be viewed as measure of productivity. Economists have frequently used Malmquist Indices to evaluate intertemporal productivity changes of economic entities, such as firms and countries. We use Malmquist Indices to evaluate the predicted environmental performance of the rapidly growing Charlotte, NC, metropolitan area under alternative future land use scenarios. These scenarios project population, urban development, and environmental impacts from the base year 2000 to the year 2030 within the region's 184 watersheds. The first scenario is based on a continuation of current growth trends and patterns (“Business as Usual” or BAU). The second scenario uses compact “smart growth” development (“Compact Centers” or CC). We use data envelopment analysis (DEA) to estimate Malmquist Indices, which in this case, combine multiple variables into a single indicator that measures the relative impact of different development patterns on the consumption of natural resources. The results predict that the CC scenario maintains the region's current productivity, while the BAU scenario results in lower productivity. As watersheds in the study area are about the same size, weighting the results by area makes little difference. Watershed populations, however, vary greatly, and our results predict that watersheds with higher population densities also have higher Malmquist Index efficiencies. The model also predicts that low population watersheds will benefit more from the CC scenario. While the application of these analytical techniques in this case study is limited in scope, the results demonstrate that the Malmquist Index is a potentially powerful tool for interdisciplinary environmental impact analysis     

Potential trade‐offs of employing perennial biomass crops for the bioeconomy in the EU by 2050: Impacts on agricultural markets in the EU and the world

Perennial biomass crops (PBC) are considered a crucial feedstock for sustainable biomass supply to the bioeconomy that compete less with food production compared to traditional crops. However, large‐scale development of PBC as a means to reach greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation targets would require not only the production on land previously not used for agriculture, but also the use of land that is currently used for agricultural production. This study aims to evaluate agricultural market impacts with biomass demand for food, feed, and PBC in four bioeconomy scenarios (“Business as usual,” “Improved relevance of bioeconomy,” “Extensive transformation to a bioeconomy,” “Extensive transformation to a bioeconomy with diet change”) to achieve a 75% GHG reduction target in the emission trading sector of the EU until 2050. We simulated bioeconomy scenarios in the energy system model TIMES‐PanEU and the agricultural sector model ESIM and conducted a sensitivity analysis considering crop yields, PBC yields, and land use options of PBC. Our results show that all bioeconomy scenarios except the one with diet change lead to increasing food prices (the average food price index increases by about 11% in the EU and 2.5%–3.0% in world markets). A combination of the transformation to a bioeconomy combined with diet change toward less animal protein in the EU is the only scenario that results in only moderately increasing food prices within the EU (+3.0%) and even falling global food prices (–6.4%). In addition, crop yield improvement and cultivation of PBC on marginal land help to reduce increases in food prices, but higher land prices are inevitable because those measures have only small effects on sparing agricultural land for PBC. For a transition to a bioeconomy that acknowledges climate mitigation targets, counter‐measures for those substantial direct and indirect impacts on agricultural markets should be taken into account.     

Assessing the impacts of ecological governance on carbon storage in an urban coal mining subsidence area

Carbon storage, which is considered one of the important service functions of ecosystems, plays an irreplaceable role in maintaining the regional carbon balance and regulating the climate. Regional carbon storage is closely related to regional land use and land cover (LULC). With the development and expansion of coal resource-based cities, the construction areas of cities have started to overlap with underground coal resources. Coal mining leads to regional LULC changes, such as large-scale surface subsidence and subsidence waterlogging, and LULC has changed and consequently affected carbon storage in urban coal mining subsidence areas. This study analyses the change trend of carbon storage and clarifies the effect of ecological governance being implemented in the urban coal mining subsidence area. First, the LULC change map of the ecological governance scenario was obtained via remote sensing technology. Then, the natural evolution scenario from 2000 to 2021 was simulated using the hybrid cellular automata and Markov chain, also named the CA–Markov model. Finally, combined with the subsidence waterlogging in the urban subsidence area, the InVEST model was used to analyse the spatial–temporal variation characteristics of carbon storage. The analysis results showed that LULC and carbon storage in small-scale urban coal mining subsidence areas changed dramatically between 2000 and 2021 due to coal mining and ecological governance. The subsidence waterlogging area increased by 1033.83 ha, resulting in total carbon storage decreasing by 37,560.21 t. Subsidence waterlogging is the key influencing factor in the decrease in carbon storage. The forest area increased by 1270.83 ha, resulting in a total carbon storage increase of 216,531.04 t. Forest is the crucial increasing factor in carbon storage. The changes in carbon storage in the urban coal mining subsidence area can be classified as follows: obvious improvement area, basically unchanged area, and significantly degraded area. As opposed to the natural evolution scenario, the ecological governance scenario increased the coverage of the “obvious improvement area” by 818.46 ha in the urban coal mining subsidence area. Overall, this study illustrates that ecological governance can effectively improve carbon sequestration and is conducive to the healthy development of coal resource-based cities.     

The future distribution of river fish: The complex interplay of climate and land use changes,species dispersal and movement barriers

The future distribution of river fishes will be jointly affected by climate and land use changes forcing species to move in space. However, little is known whether fish species will be able to keep pace with predicted climate and land use‐driven habitat shifts, in particular in fragmented river networks. In this study, we coupled species distribution models (stepwise boosted regression trees) of 17 fish species with species‐specific models of their dispersal (fish dispersal model FIDIMO) in the European River Elbe catchment. We quantified (i) the extent and direction (up‐ vs. downstream) of predicted habitat shifts under coupled “moderate” and “severe” climate and land use change scenarios for 2050, and (ii) the dispersal abilities of fishes to track predicted habitat shifts while explicitly considering movement barriers (e.g., weirs, dams). Our results revealed median net losses of suitable habitats of 24 and 94 river kilometers per species for the moderate and severe future scenarios, respectively. Predicted habitat gains and losses and the direction of habitat shifts were highly variable among species. Habitat gains were negatively related to fish body size, i.e., suitable habitats were projected to expand for smaller‐bodied fishes and to contract for larger‐bodied fishes. Moreover, habitats of lowland fish species were predicted to shift downstream, whereas those of headwater species showed upstream shifts. The dispersal model indicated that suitable habitats are likely to shift faster than species might disperse. In particular, smaller‐bodied fish (<200 mm) seem most vulnerable and least able to track future environmental change as their habitat shifted most and they are typically weaker dispersers. Furthermore, fishes and particularly larger‐bodied species might substantially be restricted by movement barriers to respond to predicted climate and land use changes, while smaller‐bodied species are rather restricted by their specific dispersal ability.     

An economic analysis of reforestation with a native tree species: the case of Vietnamese farmers

The area of degraded forests in Vietnam is substantial, currently about 3.1 million ha of which about 1.7 million ha (55 %) were granted to individual farms for reforestation. However, the result of farmers’ reforestation efforts is limited. We aimed to examine the financial return, technical efficiency, and factors determining reforestation with a native tree species (Canarium album) by farms. Our results showed that reforestation with C. album is less financially profitable than that with an exotic tree species (Acacia mangium) as the alternative land use option. The subsidy from the government is found insufficient to compensate for the income losses of farmers participating in reforestation with the native tree species. Reforestation with C. album could be more successful if participating farmers were equipped to be more technically efficient. Finally, our findings clearly showed that the security of forest land property rights and the provision of forest extension services are among the determinants of participation in, and the subsequent success of reforestation with C. album.     

The impact of under and over-recording of cancer on death certificates in a competing risks analysis: A simulation study

Background: With linked register and cause of death data becoming more accessible than ever, competing risks methodology is being increasingly used as a way of obtaining “real world” probabilities of death broken down by specific causes. It is important, in terms of the validity of these studies, to have accurate cause of death information. However, it is well documented that cause of death information taken from death certificates is often lacking in accuracy and completeness. Methods: We assess through use of a simulation study the effect of under and over-recording of cancer on death certificates in a competing risks analysis consisting of three competing causes of death: cancer, heart disease and other causes. Using realistic levels of misclassification, we consider 24 scenarios and examine the bias in the cause-specific hazard ratios and the cumulative incidence function. Results: The bias in the cumulative incidence function was highest in the oldest age group reaching values as high as 2.6 percentage units for the “good” cancer prognosis scenario and 9.7 percentage units for the “poor” prognosis scenario. Conclusion: The bias resulting from the chosen levels of misclassification in this study accentuate concerns that unreliable cause of death information may be providing misleading results. The results of this simulation study convey an important message to applied epidemiological researchers.     

Effects of climate and land‐use change scenarios on fire probability during the 21st century in the Brazilian Amazon

The joint and relative effects of future land‐use and climate change on fire occurrence in the Amazon, as well its seasonal variation, are still poorly understood, despite its recognized importance. Using the maximum entropy method (MaxEnt), we combined regional land‐use projections and climatic data from the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble to investigate the monthly probability of fire occurrence in the mid (2041–2070) and late (2071–2100) 21st century in the Brazilian Amazon. We found striking spatial variation in the fire relative probability (FRP) change along the months, with October showing the highest overall change. Considering climate only, the area with FRP ≥ 0.3 (a threshold chosen based on the literature) in October increases 6.9% by 2071–2100 compared to the baseline period under the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and 27.7% under the RCP 8.5. The best‐case land‐use scenario (“Sustainability”) alone causes a 10.6% increase in the area with FRP ≥ 0.3, while the worse‐case land‐use scenario (“Fragmentation”) causes a 73.2% increase. The optimistic climate‐land‐use projection (Sustainability and RCP 4.5) causes a 21.3% increase in the area with FRP ≥ 0.3 in October by 2071–2100 compared to the baseline period. In contrast, the most pessimistic climate‐land‐use projection (Fragmentation and RCP 8.5) causes a widespread increase in FRP (113.5% increase in the area with FRP ≥ 0.3), and prolongs the fire season, displacing its peak. Combining the Sustainability land‐use and RCP 8.5 scenarios causes a 39.1% increase in the area with FRP ≥ 0.3. We conclude that avoiding the regress on land‐use governance in the Brazilian Amazon (i.e., decrease in the extension and level of conservation of the protected areas, reduced environmental laws enforcement, extensive road paving, and increased deforestation) would substantially mitigate the effects of climate change on fire probability, even under the most pessimistic RCP 8.5 scenario.     

基于CLUE-S模型的不同情景下区域土地利用布局优化

土地利用规划要求把土地资源最终配置在空间上,而现有文献更多是对土地利用结构的优化,很少对全局土地利用布局优化,鉴于此,为减轻土地利用规划的多目标冲突,同时为提高资源配置效率,释放空间效应,对不同情景下的土地利用布局优化进行研究。用非线性优化模型中的理想点法求取了不同情景下最优土地利用结构,用Logistic回归提取了不同用地的优化布局规则,以不同情景下的土地优化结构为数量约束,借助CLUE-S模型的全局配置能力对各情景下的用地布局作优化,并以扬州市为实例进行阐述。结果表明:(1)优先发展经济情景下,2025年扬州土地利用经济产值是10.4×10~7万元,优先保护生态情景下,目标年生态服务价值是9.7×10~5万元,保障公众福利情景下,公众福利大小是351271 hm~2;(2)经济增长目标对土地利用结构的情景变化最为敏感,而公众福利目标的敏感性最小;(3)与基期年比,发展经济与保育生态情景下的土地优化布局变化最大,前者主要是市区城镇工矿用地向东部及西北扩张,后者则是在西南丘陵及南部长江岸边配置了大量园地、林地。提出的不同情景下土地利用布局的优化方法可为土地利用规划及生态规划提供有力技术支持。     

黄河三角洲滨海湿地碳储量及其对未来多情景的响应

黄河三角洲作为我国暖温带最年轻、保存最完整的滨海湿地生态系统,在全球气候变化以及区域人类活动加剧的背景下,海平面上升和地面沉降加剧使得地区生态安全受到严重威胁。基于1991-2020年8期土地利用/覆被数据,使用生态系统服务和权衡的综合评估模型(InVEST)碳储量模块系统评估黄河三角洲过去30年的土地利用/覆被和碳储量时空变化特征,并进一步耦合海水淹没模型和斑块生成土地利用变化模拟软件(PLUS)预测生态保护、自然发展和经济发展三种情景下黄河三角洲2035和2050年土地利用/覆被和碳储量格局。结果表明:1991-2020年间,碳储量累计减少107.94万t,降幅为8.12%,自然湿地和非湿地碳储量分别减少386.66和18.56万t,人工湿地碳储量增加297.27万t。2035和2050年,黄河三角洲分别约有4.47%-11.58%和6.20%-17.42%的陆地会被海水淹没,导致未来黄河三角洲多情景模拟中碳储量均减少,到2035年生态保护、自然发展和经济发展情景下碳储量分别减少了42.38万t、76.68万t和119.50万t,到2050年三种情景碳储量分别减少了59.30万t、119.02万t和187.01万t,同时期生态保护情景下碳储量减少速率最小。黄河三角洲应坚持可持续发展,加强高碳储量土地利用/覆被类型的生态保护,通过回填开采区等方式减少地面沉降速率,并在可能被淹没的区域建设沿海堤坝以预防海水淹没,从而减少黄河三角洲的碳储量损失。研究指出了海水淹没会导致巨大的碳储量损失,可为黄河三角洲未来提高固碳增汇作用提供数据支撑和理论基础。     

绿色基础设施的洪水调节服务供需测度研究进展

绿色基础设施(green infrastructure, GI)可提供高效且可获取的洪水调节服务,其供需测度是提升服务水平的基础与前提,可为城市土地利用与绿色基础设施规划提供决策依据。以GI洪水调节服务供需为研究对象,梳理GI洪水调节服务供需的概念内涵、主体构成和尺度关系。回顾了GI洪水调节服务供需测度方法,包括土地利用测度法、生态系统测度法和洪水调蓄模型法等供应水平测度方法,以及风险评估法、洪水淹没模型法和经济损失法等需求水平测度方法。基于生态系统服务的供需关系,构建了GI洪水调节服务供需分析框架,通过供需数量均衡和空间匹配将供需关系分为四种情景,对应服务动态平衡、调整服务供需水平和服务流动机制3种调控手段。从服务测度重点、动态变化分析、供需阈值效能、服务流动机制等四个方面提出了未来研究方向,以期对绿色基础设施规划研究和生态系统服务管理与决策研究有所启示。     

An attack on two fronts: predicting how changes in land use and climate affect the distribution of stream macroinvertebrates

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The integration of crop rotation and tillage practices in the assessment of ecosystem services provision at the regional scale

The provision of ecosystem services at the landscape level can be significantly influenced by land management practices. Within an agriculturally dominated case study area in Saxony, Germany, a more detailed land use classification, which includes differentiated information on agricultural management practices, was utilized within the raster-based planning support tool GISCAME. “Management” refers to typical, regional crop rotations and soil tillage practices.The focus of this research was based on an indicator-based approach to assess ecosystem services and the development of land use change (LUC) and land management change (LMC) scenarios. The EuroMaps Land Cover data set was specifically developed for the case study and included remote sensing information for the general land use classification and terrestrial mapping information. Furthermore, statistical data on detailed regional agricultural land management were included. The raster-based planning support tool GISCAME was then used to simulate scenarios and visualize results. The LUC and LMC scenarios showed that the more detailed land use classification provided better output for the prioritization of planning alternatives. Further it enabled a refined assessment of the provisioning services (i) food and fodder provision, (ii) biomass provision, the regulation services, (iii) soil erosion protection, (iv) drought risk regulation, (v) flood regulation, (vi) returns from land-based production (i.e. the market value of biomass provision), and (vii) ecological integrity. The results of this study support the view that the application of improved management measures, such as conservation tillage, can significantly enhance the provision of ecosystem services (e.g. soil erosion protection and drought risk regulation) at the landscape level. The study also indicates that a combination of strategic LUC, such as afforestation and LMC, might be an effective way to enhance regulating services with acceptable trade-offs regarding provisioning services. Our approach presents a refined foundation for ecosystem services assessment, which is designed to better support regional planning and the provision of information to non-experts in the participatory processes. For transfer into other regions, standardized land use and land management classification will have to be defined.     

Renewable jet fuel supply scenarios in the European Union in 2021–2030 in the context of proposed biofuel policy and competing biomass demand

This study presents supply scenarios of nonfood renewable jet fuel (RJF) in the European Union (EU) toward 2030, based on the anticipated regulatory context, availability of biomass and conversion technologies, and competing biomass demand from other sectors (i.e., transport, heat, power, and chemicals). A cost optimization model was used to identify preconditions for increased RJF production and the associated emission reductions, costs, and impact on competing sectors. Model scenarios show nonfood RJF supply could increase from 1 PJ in 2021 to 165–261 PJ/year (3.8–6.1 million tonne (Mt)/year) by 2030, provided advanced biofuel technologies are developed and adequate (policy) incentives are present. This supply corresponds to 6%–9% of jet fuel consumption and 28%–41% of total nonfood biofuel consumption in the EU. These results are driven by proposed policy incentives and a relatively high fossil jet fuel price compared to other fossil fuels. RJF reduces aviation‐related combustion emission by 12–19 Mt/year CO₂‐eq by 2030, offsetting 53%–84% of projected emission growth of the sector in the EU relative to 2020. Increased RJF supply mainly affects nonfood biofuel use in road transport, which remained relatively constant during 2021–2030. The cost differential of RJF relative to fossil jet fuel declines from 40 €/GJ (1,740 €/t) in 2021 to 7–13 €/GJ (280–540 €/t) in 2030, because of the introduction of advanced biofuel technologies, technological learning, increased fossil jet fuel prices, and reduced feedstock costs. The cumulative additional costs of RJF equal €7.7–11 billion over 2021–2030 or €1.0–1.4 per departing passenger (intra‐EU) when allocated to the aviation sector. By 2030, 109–213 PJ/year (2.5–4.9 Mt/year) RJF is produced from lignocellulosic biomass using technologies which are currently not yet commercialized. Hence, (policy) mechanisms that expedite technology development are cardinal to the feasibility and affordability of increasing RJF production.     

Downscaling climate parameters in Fars province,using models of the fifth report and RCP scenarios

Climate change is responsible for many extreme weather events on the Earth, including sea level rising, drastic shifts in temperature and precipitation regimes, and changes in flood and drought frequency. In the present study, based on IPCC's latest report, outputs of three GCMs, the EC-EARTH, the HadGEM2-ES and the MIROC5 were downscaled by the LARS-WG model and under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Also, variations in precipitation, maximum and minimum temperatures for the time series 2021–2040, 2041–2060 and 2061–2080 have been projected and the precipitation extreme values in Gumbel distribution were evaluated. For this purpose, the climate records obtained from Shiraz, Lar and Abadeh synoptic stations in Fars province were used to establish the baseline period (1985–2010). The results of all the stations show that Changes in maximum and minimum temperatures under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios have increased. The increase in minimum temperature for the baseline period compared to the upcoming period 2021–2040 under the selected scenarios were 1.43 and 1.65C, respectively. The increase in precipitation for the baseline period compared to the upcoming period (2021–2040) under the two scenarios were up to 2.93 and 1.95, respectively. Furthermore, longer return periods are accompanied by higher amounts of probable maximum precipitation under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, where extreme precipitation is showing higher level of rise under the latter scenario.     

Physical and Economic Impacts of Sea-Level Rise and Low Probability Flooding Events on Coastal Communities

Conventionally flood mapping typically includes only a static water level (e.g. peak of a storm tide) in coastal flood inundation events. Additional factors become increasingly important when increased water-level thresholds are met during the combination of a storm tide and increased mean sea level. This research incorporates factors such as wave overtopping and river flow in a range of flood inundation scenarios of future sea-level projections for a UK case study of Fleetwood, northwest England. With increasing mean sea level it is shown that wave overtopping and river forcing have an important bearing on the cost of coastal flood events. The method presented converts inundation maps into monetary cost. This research demonstrates that under scenarios of joint extreme surge-wave-river events the cost of flooding can be increased by up to a factor of 8 compared with an increase in extent of up to a factor of 3 relative to “surge alone” event. This is due to different areas being exposed to different flood hazards and areas with common hazard where flood waters combine non-linearly. This shows that relying simply on flood extent and volume can under-predict the actual economic impact felt by a coastal community. Additionally, the scenario inundation depths have been presented as “brick course” maps, which represent a new way of interpreting flood maps. This is primarily aimed at stakeholders to increase levels of engagement within the coastal community.     

Managed flooding can augment the benefits of natural flooding for native wetland vegetation

Managed flooding is increasingly being used to maintain and restore the ecological values of floodplain wetlands. However, evidence for its effectiveness is sometimes inconsistent and water available for environmental purposes often limited. We experimentally inundated a floodplain wetland (or “billabong”) in late spring by pumping water from its adjacent creek, aiming to promote the native wetland flora and suppress terrestrial exotics. Vegetation was surveyed before (spring) and after (late summer) the managed flood in the experimental billabong and in three control billabongs. Floodplain water levels were continuously monitored. Wet conditions caused two of the control billabongs to also flood, but to a lesser extent than the experimental billabong. We therefore assessed vegetation changes relative to flooding duration. With increasing flooding duration, the cover of wetland vegetation (amphibious and aquatic species) increased and the cover of terrestrial and exotic vegetation decreased, with these effects largest in the deliberately flooded billabong. Flooding durations greater than 20 days generally resulted in increased cover of wetland plants and restricted the growth of terrestrial plants. Reinstatement of more appropriate flooding regimes can thus promote native wetland plants, while suppressing terrestrial exotic species. Our study also provides evidence for the use of modest water allocations to augment the benefits of natural flooding in the maintenance and restoration of native wetland plant communities.