Prediction model of DnBP degradation based on BP neural network in AAO system

A laboratory-scale anaerobic-anoxic-oxic (AAO) system was established to investigate the fate of DnBP. A removal kinetic model including sorption and biodegradation was formulated, and kinetic parameters were evaluated with batch experiments under anaerobic, anoxic, oxic conditions. However, it is highly complex and is difficult to confirm the kinetic parameters using conventional mathematical modeling. To correlate the experimental data with available models or some modified empirical equations, an artificial neural network model based on multilayered partial recurrent back propagation (BP) algorithm was applied for the biodegradation of DnBP from the water quality characteristic parameters. Compared to the kinetic model, the performance of the network for modeling DnBP is found to be more impressive. The results showed that the biggest relative error of BP network prediction model was 9.95%, while the kinetic model was 14.52%, which illustrates BP model predicting effluent DnBP more accurately than kinetic model forecasting.     

Short-term fast forecasting based on family behavior pattern recognition for small-scale users load

Household electricity consumption has been rising gradually with the improvement of living standards. Making short-term load forecasting at the small-scale users plays an increasingly important role in the future power network planning and operation. To meet the efficiency of the dispatching system and the demand of human daily power consumption, an optimal forecasting model Attention-CNN-GRU of small-scale users load at various periods of the day based on family behavior pattern recognition is proposed in this study. The low-level data information (smart meter data) is used to build the high-level model (small-scale users load). Attention mechanism and convolutional neural networks (CNN) can further enhance the prediction accuracy of gated recurrent unit (GRU) and notably shorten its prediction time. The recognition of family behavior patterns can be achieved through the users’ smart meter data, and users are aggregated into K categories. The results of optimal K category prediction under the family behavior model are summarized as the final prediction outcome. This idea framework is tested on real users’ smart meter data, and its performance is comprehensively compared with different benchmarks. The results present strong compatibility in the small-scale users load forecasting model at various periods of the day and swift short-term prediction of users load compared to other prediction models. The time is shortened by 1/4 compared with the GRU/LSTM model. Furthermore, the accuracy is improved to 92.06% (MAPE is 7.94%).

     

基于MODIS时间序列反射率数据的雷竹林LAI反演

本文以雷竹林为研究对象,基于MODIS地表反射率数据构建了归一化植被指数(NDVI)、比值植被指数(SR)、Gitelson绿色植被指数(GI)、增强型植被指数(EVI)和土壤调整植被指数(SAVI)5种植被指数,并将其与MODIS 7个波段原始反射率数据作为遥感变量,采用逐步回归和相关分析两种方法进行变量筛选,结合LAI实测数据构建了逐步回归和BP神经网络两种模型,对雷竹林生态系统观测站点2014年1月-2017年3月LAI时间系列数据进行反演,并将反演结果与同时期MOD15A2 LAI产品进行对比分析.结果表明: SR为唯一入选逐步回归模型的变量;b₁、b₂、b₃和b₇以及5种植被指数与LAI之间的相关性均达到显著水平,可作为BP神经网络模型的输入变量.使用BP神经网络反演得到的LAI与实测LAI之间的相关性显著,R²为0.71,RMSE为0.34,RMSE_r为13.6%,其R²比逐步回归模型提高了10.9%,RMSE降低了5.6%,RMSE_r降低了12.3%,与MODIS LAI相比,其R²提高了54.5%,RMSE降低了79.3%,RMSE_r降低了79.1%.结合MODIS时间序列反射率和BP神经网络模型能够精确地反演雷竹林LAI,为实现基于遥感技术快速监测区域雷竹林LAI提供可行的方法.     

A comparison of models for the long-term prediction of Nilaparvata lugens in South China based on future climate in Indochina

The brown planthopper (BPH), Nilaparvata lugens (Stål) is a migratory rice pest that periodically erupts across China, and mainly come from Indochina Peninsula in spring. The climate change in Indochina Peninsula has caused obvious impacts on the immigration of BPH. To further understand the influence of climate change on BPH immigration, the light-trap data of BPH in southern China from 1980 to 2016 were collected, and the best performance data of each meteorological factor (temperature, humidity, precipitation and wind) in Indochina Peninsula by simulating eight Global Climate Models (GCMs) were chosen. The key predicting factors were screened out by identifying correlations between the number of BPH and the meteorological factors. The support vector machine (SVM), back propagation (BP) neural network, and stepwise regression were used to establish medium long-term prediction models of immigration amount of BPH, and their advantages and disadvantages were compared, and prediction of the occurrence of BPH in the future was carried out by using three models based on future climate data provided by GCMs (under RCP4.5 or RCP8.5 scenario). The results showed that: (1) BNU-CSM1–1 model was the best in temperature simulation; CESM1-CAM5 model was the best in humidity simulation; HadGEM2-AO model was the best in precipitation and meridional wind simulation; BCC-CSM1–1 model was the best in zonal wind simulation. (2) The accuracies of retrospective testing and forward forecasting of three models indicated the SVM model was more suitable for medium long-term predicting the occurrence of BPH than BP neural networkmodel and stepwise regression model. (3) The immigration of BPH in Guangxi, Jiangxi, Hunan and Hubei would be greater than other provinces in southern China in the next 7 years, and should be taken seriously.     

The Use of Quantile Regression to Forecast Higher Than Expected Respiratory Deaths in a Daily Time Series: A Study of New York City Data 1987-2000

Forecasting higher than expected numbers of health events provides potentially valuable insights in its own right, and may contribute to health services management and syndromic surveillance. This study investigates the use of quantile regression to predict higher than expected respiratory deaths.Data taken from 70,830 deaths occurring in New York were used. Temporal, weather and air quality measures were fitted using quantile regression at the 90th-percentile with half the data (in-sample). Four QR models were fitted: an unconditional model predicting the 90th-percentile of deaths (Model 1), a seasonal / temporal (Model 2), a seasonal, temporal plus lags of weather and air quality (Model 3), and a seasonal, temporal model with 7-day moving averages of weather and air quality. Models were cross-validated with the out of sample data. Performance was measured as proportionate reduction in weighted sum of absolute deviations by a conditional, over unconditional models; i.e., the coefficient of determination (R1).The coefficient of determination showed an improvement over the unconditional model between 0.16 and 0.19. The greatest improvement in predictive and forecasting accuracy of daily mortality was associated with the inclusion of seasonal and temporal predictors (Model 2). No gains were made in the predictive models with the addition of weather and air quality predictors (Models 3 and 4). However, forecasting models that included weather and air quality predictors performed slightly better than the seasonal and temporal model alone (i.e., Model 3 > Model 4 > Model 2)This study provided a new approach to predict higher than expected numbers of respiratory related-deaths. The approach, while promising, has limitations and should be treated at this stage as a proof of concept.     

基于模糊规则的人工神经网络模拟新疆杨蒸腾耗水

于2017年7—11月,应用热扩散探针(TDP)技术,结合同步测定的气象因子,对宁夏河东沙区新疆杨的耗水日变化特征及季节变化规律进行分析,提出了一种基于模糊规则的BP神经网络和Elman神经网络耗水模型,探究新疆杨蒸腾耗水规律并对其耗水量进行模拟。结果表明: 生长季内(7—10月)新疆杨平均液流密度为4.98 g·cm^-2·h^-1,影响蒸腾耗水的主要因素依次为太阳辐射、大气温度、饱和水汽压亏缺和相对湿度;受气象因子影响,新疆杨耗水具有明显的季节性变化规律,夏季(7—8月)单株耗水量为秋季(9—10月)的1.4倍;采用基于模糊规则的BP神经网络和Elman神经网络模型对新疆杨耗水进行模拟可以解释80%以上的变量,能够较准确地模拟新疆杨耗水情况,相对于BP神经网络,采用Elman神经网络对新疆杨耗水进行模拟,相对误差减少27.0%,均方根误差减少24.3%,纳什效率系数提高67.9%,决定系数达0.80以上。Elman神经网络的模拟效果优于BP神经网络,模型效率和拟合度更高,有效地提高了林木蒸腾耗水模拟精度,可作为河东沙区新疆杨林分蒸腾耗水估算的首选模型。     

Toxic gas dispersion prediction for point source emission using deep learning method

Abstract

Accurate and rapid toxic gas concentration prediction model plays an important role in emergency aid of sudden gas leak. However, it is difficult for existing dispersion model to achieve accuracy and efficiency requirements at the same time. Although some researchers have considered developing new forecasting models with traditional machine learning, such as back propagation (BP) neural network, support vector machine (SVM), the prediction results obtained from such models need to be improved still in terms of accuracy. Then new prediction models based on deep learning are proposed in this paper. Deep learning has obvious advantages over traditional machine learning in prediction and classification. Deep belief networks (DBNs) as well as convolution neural networks (CNNs) are used to build new dispersion models here. Both models are compared with Gaussian plume model, computation fluid dynamics (CFD) model and models based on traditional machine learning in terms of accuracy, prediction time, and computation time. The experimental results turn out that CNNs model performs better considering all evaluation indexes.     

A General and Robust Framework for Secondary Traits Analysis

Case–control designs are commonly employed in genetic association studies. In addition to the case–control status, data on secondary traits are often collected. Directly regressing secondary traits on genetic variants from a case–control sample often leads to biased estimation. Several statistical methods have been proposed to address this issue. The inverse probability weighting (IPW) approach and the semiparametric maximum-likelihood (SPML) approach are the most commonly used. A new weighted estimating equation (WEE) approach is proposed to provide unbiased estimation of genetic associations with secondary traits, by combining observed and counterfactual outcomes. Compared to the existing approaches, WEE is more robust against biased sampling and disease model misspecification. We conducted simulations to evaluate the performance of the WEE under various models and sampling schemes. The WEE demonstrated robustness in all scenarios investigated, had appropriate type I error, and was as powerful or more powerful than the IPW and SPML approaches. We applied the WEE to an asthma case–control study to estimate the associations between the thymic stromal lymphopoietin gene and two secondary traits: overweight status and serum IgE level. The WEE identified two SNPs associated with overweight in logistic regression, three SNPs associated with serum IgE levels in linear regression, and an additional four SNPs that were missed in linear regression to be associated with the 75th quantile of IgE in quantile regression. The WEE approach provides a general and robust secondary analysis framework, which complements the existing approaches and should serve as a valuable tool for identifying new associations with secondary traits.     

Semiparametric Transformation Models for Panel Count Data with Dependent Observation Process

This paper presents a class of semiparametric transformation models for regression analysis of panel count data when the observation times or process may differ from subject to subject and more importantly, may contain relevant information about the underlying recurrent event. The models are much more flexible than the existing ones and include many commonly used models as special cases. For estimation of regression parameters, some estimating equations are developed and the resulting estimators are shown to be consistent and asymptotically normal. An extensive simulation study was conducted and indicates that the proposed approach works well for practical situations. An illustrative example is provided.     

Semiparametric models for missing covariate and response data in regression models

We consider a class of semiparametric models for the covariate distribution and missing data mechanism for missing covariate and/or response data for general classes of regression models including generalized linear models and generalized linear mixed models. Ignorable and nonignorable missing covariate and/or response data are considered. The proposed semiparametric model can be viewed as a sensitivity analysis for model misspecification of the missing covariate distribution and/or missing data mechanism. The semiparametric model consists of a generalized additive model (GAM) for the covariate distribution and/or missing data mechanism. Penalized regression splines are used to express the GAMs as a generalized linear mixed effects model, in which the variance of the corresponding random effects provides an intuitive index for choosing between the semiparametric and parametric model. Maximum likelihood estimates are then obtained via the EM algorithm. Simulations are given to demonstrate the methodology, and a real data set from a melanoma cancer clinical trial is analyzed using the proposed methods.     

湿地翅碱蓬生物量遥感估算模型

以黄河三角洲HJ-1A CCD遥感数据和滨海湿地翅碱蓬生物量实测数据为数据源,通过对比分析参数回归模型（单变量线性和非线性回归模型,多元线性逐步回归模型）和人工神经网络模型（BP网络、RBF网络、GRNN网络）,构建黄河三角洲湿地翅碱蓬生长初期的生物量湿重遥感估算最优模型。研究表明：基于遥感信息变量能够建立生长初期翅碱蓬生物量湿重估算模型。尽管基于RDVI、MSAVI和PC2的3个变量的多元线性回归模型的拟合效果较优,但是以SAVI、MSAVI、RVI、DVI、RDVI和PC2等7个遥感信息变量构建的BP神经网络模型的精度更高,平均相对误差为12.73%,估算效果最优,能够满足较高精度的生物量湿重估算需求。翅碱蓬生长初期生物量湿重最优估算模型的建立,为滨海地区植被生物量监测、区域翅碱蓬生物量季节动态模拟以及黄河三角洲生态系统功能评价提供技术支持与基础。     

On computation of semiparametric maximum likelihood estimators with shape constraints

Large sample theory of semiparametric models based on maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) with shape constraint on the nonparametric component is well studied. Relatively less attention has been paid to the computational aspect of semiparametric MLE. The computation of semiparametric MLE based on existing approaches such as the expectation‐maximization (EM) algorithm can be computationally prohibitive when the missing rate is high. In this paper, we propose a computational framework for semiparametric MLE based on an inexact block coordinate ascent (BCA) algorithm. We show theoretically that the proposed algorithm converges. This computational framework can be applied to a wide range of data with different structures, such as panel count data, interval‐censored data, and degradation data, among others. Simulation studies demonstrate favorable performance compared with existing algorithms in terms of accuracy and speed. Two data sets are used to illustrate the proposed computational method. We further implement the proposed computational method in R package BCA1SG , available at CRAN.     

Comparison of Two Hybrid Models for Forecasting the Incidence of Hemorrhagic Fever with Renal Syndrome in Jiangsu Province,China

Background

Cases of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) are widely distributed in eastern Asia, especially in China, Russia, and Korea. It is proved to be a difficult task to eliminate HFRS completely because of the diverse animal reservoirs and effects of global warming. Reliable forecasting is useful for the prevention and control of HFRS.

Methods

Two hybrid models, one composed of nonlinear autoregressive neural network (NARNN) and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) the other composed of generalized regression neural network (GRNN) and ARIMA were constructed to predict the incidence of HFRS in the future one year. Performances of the two hybrid models were compared with ARIMA model.

Results

The ARIMA, ARIMA-NARNN ARIMA-GRNN model fitted and predicted the seasonal fluctuation well. Among the three models, the mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of ARIMA-NARNN hybrid model was the lowest both in modeling stage and forecasting stage. As for the ARIMA-GRNN hybrid model, the MSE, MAE and MAPE of modeling performance and the MSE and MAE of forecasting performance were less than the ARIMA model, but the MAPE of forecasting performance did not improve.

Conclusion

Developing and applying the ARIMA-NARNN hybrid model is an effective method to make us better understand the epidemic characteristics of HFRS and could be helpful to the prevention and control of HFRS.     

Estimation of rice neck blasts severity using spectral reflectance based on BP-neural network

Estimation of rice disease using spectral reflectance is important to non-destructive, rapid, and accurate monitoring of rice health. In this study, the rice reflectance data and disease index (DI) were determined experimentally and analyzed by single wave correlation, regression model and neural network model. The result showed that raw spectral reflectance and first derivative reflectance (FDR) difference of the rice necks under various disease severities is clear and obvious in the different spectral regions. There was also significantly negative or positive correlation between DI and raw spectral reflectance, FDR. The regression model was built with raw and first derivative spectral reflectance, which was correlated highly with the DI. However, due to rather complicated non-linear relations between spectral reflectance data and DI, the results of DI retrieved from the regression model was not so ideal. For this reason, an artificial neural network model (BP model) was constructed and applied in the retrieval of DI. For its superior ability for solving the non-linear problem, the BP model provided better accuracy in retrieval of DI compared with the results from the statistic model. Therefore, it was implied that the rice neck blasts could be predicted by remote sensing technology.     

Clustering-neural network models for freeway work zone capacity estimation

Two neural network models, called clustering-RBFNN and clustering-BPNN models, are created for estimating the work zone capacity in a freeway work zone as a function of seventeen different factors through judicious integration of the subtractive clustering approach with the radial basis function (RBF) and the backpropagation (BP) neural network models. The clustering-RBFNN model has the attractive characteristics of training stability, accuracy, and quick convergence. The results of validation indicate that the work zone capacity can be estimated by clustering-neural network models in general with an error of less than 10%, even with limited data available to train the models. The clustering-RBFNN model is used to study several main factors affecting work zone capacity. The results of such parametric studies can assist work zone engineers and highway agencies to create effective traffic management plans (TMP) for work zones quantitatively and objectively.     

神经网络提高肝细胞癌磁共振波谱诊断正确率

通过评价31磷磁共振波谱(31Phosphorus Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy,31P-MRS)来辨别三种诊断类型:肝细胞癌,正常肝和肝硬化。运用反向传输神经网络(BP)和径向基函数神经网络(RBF)分析31P-MRS数据,分别建立神经网络模型,进行肝细胞癌的诊断分类以期提高识别率。实验结果证明,应用神经网络模型后,31P-MR波谱对活体肝细胞癌的诊断正确率从89.47%提高到97.3%,且BP更优于RBF。     

Quantile regression estimates of animal population trends

Ecologists often estimate population trends of animals in time series of counts using linear regression to estimate parameters in a linear transformation of multiplicative growth models, where logarithms of rates of change in counts in time intervals are used as response variables. We present quantile regression estimates for the median (0.50) and interquartile (0.25, 0.75) relationships as an alternative to mean regression estimates for common density-dependent and density-independent population growth models. We demonstrate that the quantile regression estimates are more robust to outliers and require fewer distributional assumptions than conventional mean regression estimates and can provide information on heterogeneous rates of change ignored by mean regression. We provide quantile regression trend estimates for 2 populations of greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) in Wyoming, USA, and for the Crawford population of Gunnison sage-grouse (Centrocercus minimus) in southwestern Colorado, USA. Our selected Gompertz models of density dependence for both populations of greater sage-grouse had smaller negative estimates of density-dependence terms and less variation in corresponding predicted growth rates (λ) for quantile than mean regression models. In contrast, our selected Gompertz models of density dependence with piecewise linear effects of years for the Crawford population of Gunnison sage-grouse had predicted changes in λ across years from quantile regressions that varied more than those from mean regression because of heterogeneity in estimated λs that were both less and greater than mean estimates. Our results add to literature establishing that quantile regression provides better behaved estimates than mean regression when there are outlying growth rates, including those induced by adjustments for zeros in the time series of counts. The 0.25 and 0.75 quantiles bracketing the median provide robust estimates of population changes (λ) for the central 50% of time series data and provide a 50% prediction interval for a single new prediction without making parametric distributional assumptions or assuming homogeneous λs. Compared to mean estimates, our quantile regression trend estimates for greater sage-grouse indicated less variation in density-dependent λs by minimizing sensitivity to outlying values, and for Gunnison sage-grouse indicated greater variation in density-dependent λs associated with heterogeneity among quantiles.     

嗜热和常温蛋白模式识别的研究

采用主成分分析、偏最小二乘回归和BP神经网络三种方法对嗜热和常温蛋白进行模式识别。结果表明,三种方法对训练集拟合的平均正确率分别为92％、95％和98％,对测试集进行预测的平均正确率分别为60％、72.5％和72.5％,对嗜热蛋白预测正确率最高为75％,常温蛋白最高为85％。构建了数学模型并对其生物学意义进行了解释,建立了一种基于序列的识别嗜热和常温蛋白的新方法。     

毛竹林地上部分生物量遥感估算模型的可移植性

选择浙江省内临安、安吉、龙泉3个毛竹产区为研究区域,基于野外调查数据和Landsat 5 TM影像,分别建立3个区域的毛竹林生物量遥感估算模型,包括一元线性模型、一元非线性模型、逐步回归模型、多元线性模型和Erf-BP神经网络模型,并对3个区域的模型进行评价;最后,选择精度较好的模型进行移植并对其可移植性进行分析.结果表明:在3个区域,Eff-BP神经网络模型精度均最高,逐步回归模型和一元非线性模型次之.Erf-BP神经网络模型的可移植性最佳.模型类型和模型自变量对统计模型的可移植性有较大影响.