黑龙江省大兴安岭地区塔河县森林火险天气指标动态

基于大兴安岭地区塔河县1974-2008年森林火灾数据和同期气象数据,结合加拿大火险天气系统(CFFWIS),定量和定性分析了该区森林火险天气指标动态.结果表明:1974-2008年,研究区森林火灾年均发生次数呈增加趋势,2000-2008年森林火灾年均发生次数比1974-1999年增加了72.2%;可燃物湿度码、火行为指标和火灾控制难易度指标总体呈增加趋势,且这种增加趋势随着时间的推进更加明显.未来该区森林火灾发生概率将显著递增,可燃物将更加干燥,林火强度增强,控制火灾将更加困难,火险天气状况更加严峻.该区应重点加大森林火灾的防控,尤其是夏季火灾的防控;并应加大计划可燃物的烧除,减少可燃物载量,从可燃物这一源头上减少火灾发生概率和降低火灾强度.     

Information retrieval and knowledge discovery utilising a biomedical Semantic Web

Although various ontologies and knowledge sources have been developed in recent years to facilitate biomedical research, it is difficult to assimilate information from multiple knowledge sources. To enable researchers to easily gain understanding of a biomedical concept, a biomedical Semantic Web that seamlessly integrates knowledge from biomedical ontologies, publications and patents would be very helpful. In this paper, current research efforts in representing biomedical knowledge in Semantic Web languages are surveyed. Techniques are presented for information retrieval and knowledge discovery from the Semantic Web that extend traditional keyword search and database querying techniques. Finally, some of the challenges that have to be addressed to make the vision of a biomedical Semantic Web a reality are discussed.     

1957-2007年云南省森林火险变化

当前以变暖为主要特征的气候变化已对全球林火的发生产生重要影响.本文基于日气象数据(气温、降水量、空气相对湿度、风速),按照加拿大火险天气指数的计算方法,计算了云南省1957-2007年间每日的森林火险天气指数,分析了该省50年来森林火险的变化趋势.结果表明:云南省的火险期为上年11月至当年6月,持续期约8个月;林火数据(林火数量、过火面积和受害森林面积)与火险天气指数的相关性显著,半腐层湿度码(DMC)的火险期平均值和火险期严峻度(SSR)可作为不同火险期火险状况比较的良好指标.1957-2007年云南省森林火险状况呈现2种变化趋势:1)总体上周期性变化趋势明显,在周期性变化的同时呈上升趋势,表现为1991-2007年的火险状况比1961-1990年的火险状况略有升高;2)1991-2007年各火险期火险状况的波动性下降,火险状况异常严峻的火险期数量比1961-1990年减少.

Abstract：

Climate warming has already made great impact on forest fires. Based on the daily me-teorological data (temperature, precipitation, relative humidity, and wind speed), and by using the Canadian Fire Weather Index calculation formula, the daily forest fire weather indices (FWIs) of Yunnan Province in 1957-2007 were calculated, and through the statistical analysis of FWIs, the forest fire trends in this province over the past 50 years were studied. In the past 50 years, the forest fire season in Yunnan Province was from previous year November to current year June, lasting 8 months. Fire data (fire numbers, burned area, and burned forest area) had sig-nificant relationships with fire weather indices. The average daily duff moisture code (DMC) in whole fire season and the seasonal severity rating (SSR) were the good indices to evaluate the fire danger conditions among different fire seasons. The forest fire danger in Yunnan Province in 1957-2007 showed two change trends. One showed a clear cyclical change and a weak upward trend, i. e. , the fire danger conditions in 1991-2007 was slightly severer than that in 1961-1990 ; and the another was that the fluctuation of forest fire danger conditions among different fire seasons decreased in 1991-2007, and the number of abnormal severe fire seasons was less than that in 1961-1990.     

Fire and the relative roles of weather,climate and landscape characteristics in the Great Lakes‐St. Lawrence forest of Canada

Question: In deciduous‐dominated forest landscapes, what are the relative roles of fire weather, climate, human and biophysical landscape characteristics for explaining variation in large fire occurrence and area burned? Location: The Great Lakes‐St. Lawrence forest of Canada. Methods: We characterized the recent (1959–1999) regime of large (≥ 200 ha) fires in 26 deciduous‐dominated landscapes and analysed these data in an information‐theoretic framework to compare six hypotheses that related fire occurrence and area burned to fire weather severity, climate normals, population and road densities, and enduring landscape characteristics such as surficial deposits and large lakes. Results: 392 large fires burned 833 698 ha during the study period, annually burning on average 0.07%± 0.42% of forested area in each landscape. Fire activity was strongly seasonal, with most fires and area burned occurring in May and June. A combination of antecedent‐winter precipitation, fire season precipitation deficit/surplus and percent of landscape covered by well‐drained surficial deposits best explained fire occurrence and area burned. Fire occurrence varied only as a function of fire weather and climate variables, whereas area burned was also explained by percent cover of aspen and pine stands, human population density and two enduring characteristics: percent cover of large water bodies and glaciofluvial deposits. Conclusion: Understanding the relative role of these variables may help design adaptation strategies for forecasted increases in fire weather severity by allowing (1) prioritization of landscapes according to enduring characteristics and (2) management of their composition so that substantially increased fire activity would be necessary to transform landscape structure and composition.     

ENSO事件对中国森林火险天气的影响

ENSO事件影响中国的气候和森林火险天气,研究ENSO事件对中国各植被区火险天气的影响对于提高森林火险预报准确性有科学和实践意义。利用1951—2016年中国地面国际交换站气候资料的日值数据集(V3.0)数据计算每日的森林火险天气指数(FWI),根据MODIS过火区产品计算各植被区2001—2016年的森林过火面积,分别按事件情景(弱、中、强和超强厄尔尼诺事件以及弱、中和强拉尼娜事件)统计各植被区对应的火险期气温、降水、FWI和过火面积。结果表明: 1950—2016年,共发生19次厄尔尼诺事件和14次拉尼娜事件。受强或超强厄尔尼诺事件影响,西北地区春季火险期的日均最高气温明显升高,而中温带半干旱草原区春季火险期的日均最高气温在中厄尔尼诺年显著降低。厄尔尼诺年,南方和西南林区火险期的降水量一般会增加,中、低强度的拉尼娜事件会减少大部分区域的火险期降水量,但强拉尼娜事件导致大部分林区火险期的降水量增加。弱厄尔尼诺事件导致南方林区FWI降低;强或超强厄尔尼诺事件导致南方和西南林区的FWI有所降低,而北方林区的FWI有所升高。ENSO事件对各植被区FWI的影响存在显著的空间差异性。2001—2016年,当火险期的季节火险严重程度(SSR)显著变化时,暖温带湿润/半湿润地区落叶阔叶林区、中北亚热带湿润地区阔叶林区和热带南亚热带湿润地区阔叶林区的过火面积与SSR的变化一致,其他区域的过火面积受ENSO事件的影响不明显。     

Virtual Fire: A web-based GIS platform for forest fire control

Α web-based Geographic Information Systems (GIS) platform – named Virtual Fire – for forest fire control has been developed to easily, validly and promptly share and utilize information and tools among firefighting forces. This state-of-the-art system enables fire management professionals to take advantage of GIS capabilities without needing to locally install complex software components. Fire management professionals can locate fire service vehicles and other resources online and in real-time. Fire patrol aircrafts and vehicles may use tracking devices to send their coordinates directly to the platform. Cameras can augment these data by transmitting images of high-risk areas into the graphical interface of the system. Furthermore, the system provides the geographical representation of fire ignition probability and identifies high-risk areas at different local regions daily, based on a high performance computing (HPC) pilot application that runs on Windows HPC Server. Real-time data from remote automatic weather stations and weather maps based on a weather forecasting system provide vital weather data needed for fire prevention and early warning. By using these methods and a variety of fire management information and tools, the end-users are given the ability to design an operational plan to encompass the forest fire, choosing the best ways to put the fire out within the proper recourses and time.     

Climate change, human land use and future fires in the Amazon

There is increasing consensus that the global climate will continue to warm over the next century. The biodiversity-rich Amazon forest is a region of growing concern because many global climate model (GCM) scenarios of climate change forecast reduced precipitation and, in some cases, coupled vegetation models predict dieback of the forest. To date, fires have generally been spatially co-located with road networks and associated human land use because almost all fires in this region are anthropogenic in origin. Climate change, if severe enough, could alter this situation, potentially changing the fire regime to one of increased fire frequency and severity for vast portions of the Amazon forest. High moisture contents and dense canopies have historically made Amazonian forests extremely resistant to fire spread. Climate will affect the fire situation in the Amazon directly, through changes in temperature and precipitation, and indirectly, through climate-forced changes in vegetation composition and structure. The frequency of drought will be a prime determinant of both how often forest fires occur and how extensive they become. Fire risk management needs to take into account landscape configuration, land cover types and forest disturbance history as well as climate and weather. Maintaining large blocks of unsettled forest is critical for managing landscape level fire in the Amazon. The Amazon has resisted previous climate changes and should adapt to future climates as well if landscapes can be managed to maintain natural fire regimes in the majority of forest remnants.     

Climatic change and fire potential in South-Central British Columbia, Canada

The incidence and severity of forest fires are linked to the interaction between climate, fuel and topography. Increased warming and drying in the future is expected to have a significant impact on the risk of forest fire occurrence. An increase in fire risk is linked to the synchronous relationship between climate and fuel moisture conditions. A warmer, drier climate will lead to drier forest fuels that will in turn increase the chance of successful fire ignition and propagation. This interaction will increase the severity of fire weather, which, in turn, will increase the risk of extreme fire behaviour. A warmer climate will also extend fire season length, which will increase the likelihood of fires occurring over a greater proportion of the year. In this study of the North Okanagan area of British Columbia, Canada, the impacts of climate change of fire potential were evaluated using the Canadian Forest Fire Danger Rating System and multiple climate scenario analysis. Utilizing this approach, a 30% increase in fire season length was modelled to occur by 2070. In addition, statistically significant increases in fire severity and fire behaviour were also modelled. Fire weather severity was predicted to increase by 95% during the summer months by 2070 while fire behaviour was predicted to shift from surface fire‐intermittent crown fire regimes to a predominantly intermittent‐full crown fire regime by 2070 onwards. An increase in fire season length, fire weather severity and fire behaviour will increase the costs of fire suppression and the risk of property and resource loss while limiting human‐use within vulnerable forest landscapes. An increase in fire weather severity and fire behaviour over a greater proportion of the season will increase the risks faced by ecosystems and biodiversity to climatic change and increase the costs and difficulty of achieving sustainable forest management.     

Mining Rare Associations between Biological Ontologies

The constantly increasing volume and complexity of available biological data requires new methods for their management and analysis. An important challenge is the integration of information from different sources in order to discover possible hidden relations between already known data. In this paper we introduce a data mining approach which relates biological ontologies by mining cross and intra-ontology pairwise generalized association rules. Its advantage is sensitivity to rare associations, for these are important for biologists. We propose a new class of interestingness measures designed for hierarchically organized rules. These measures allow one to select the most important rules and to take into account rare cases. They favor rules with an actual interestingness value that exceeds the expected value. The latter is calculated taking into account the parent rule. We demonstrate this approach by applying it to the analysis of data from Gene Ontology and GPCR databases. Our objective is to discover interesting relations between two different ontologies or parts of a single ontology. The association rules that are thus discovered can provide the user with new knowledge about underlying biological processes or help improve annotation consistency. The obtained results show that produced rules represent meaningful and quite reliable associations.     

Bottom-Up Variables Govern Large-Fire Size in Portugal

Large fires and their impacts are a growing concern as changes in climate and land use proceed. The study of large-fire controls remains incipient in comparison with other components of the fire regime. Improved understanding of large-fire size drivers can disclose fire–landscape relationships and inform more sustainable and effective fire management. We used boosted regression tree modeling to identify the variables influent on large-fire size (100–23,219 ha, n = 609) in Portugal (1998–2008) and quantify their relative importance, globally and across the fire-size range. Potential explanatory variables included metrics pertaining to fire weather and antecedent rainfall, burned area composition, fuel connectivity, pyrodiversity (from fire recurrence patterns), topography, and land development. Large fires seldom occurred in the absence of severe fire weather. The fire-size model accounted for 70% of the deviance and included 12 independent variables, of which six absorbed 91% of the explanation. Bottom-up influences on fire size, essentially fuel-related, largely outweighed climate–weather influences, with respective importance of 85 and 15%. Fire size was essentially indifferent to land-cover composition, including forest type, and increased with high fuel connectivity and low pyrodiversity. Relevant synergies between variables were found, either positive or negative, for example, high pyrodiversity buffered the effects of extreme weather on fire size. The relative role of fire-size drivers did not vary substantially with fire size, but fires larger than 500 ha were increasingly controlled by fuel-related variables. The extent of an individual large fire is mainly a function of factors that land-use planning and forest and fuel management can tackle.     

Impacts of climate change on fire activity and fire management in the circumboreal forest

Forest fires are a significant and natural element of the circumboreal forest. Fire activity is strongly linked to weather, and increased fire activity due to climate change is anticipated or arguably has already occurred. Recent studies suggest a doubling of area burned along with a 50% increase in fire occurrence in parts of the circumboreal by the end of this century. Fire management agencies' ability to cope with these increases in fire activity is limited, as these organizations operate with a narrow margin between success and failure; a disproportionate number of fires may escape initial attack under a warmer climate, resulting in an increase in area burned that will be much greater than the corresponding increase in fire weather severity. There may be only a decade or two before increased fire activity means fire management agencies cannot maintain their current levels of effectiveness.     

A review of the relationships between drought and forest fire in the United States

The historical and presettlement relationships between drought and wildfire are well documented in North America, with forest fire occurrence and area clearly increasing in response to drought. There is also evidence that drought interacts with other controls (forest productivity, topography, fire weather, management activities) to affect fire intensity, severity, extent, and frequency. Fire regime characteristics arise across many individual fires at a variety of spatial and temporal scales, so both weather and climate – including short‐ and long‐term droughts – are important and influence several, but not all, aspects of fire regimes. We review relationships between drought and fire regimes in United States forests, fire‐related drought metrics and expected changes in fire risk, and implications for fire management under climate change. Collectively, this points to a conceptual model of fire on real landscapes: fire regimes, and how they change through time, are products of fuels and how other factors affect their availability (abundance, arrangement, continuity) and flammability (moisture, chemical composition). Climate, management, and land use all affect availability, flammability, and probability of ignition differently in different parts of North America. From a fire ecology perspective, the concept of drought varies with scale, application, scientific or management objective, and ecosystem.     

Fire regimes in north-eastern Cambodian monsoonal forests, with a 9300-year sediment charcoal record

Aim To provide insights concerning changes in fire regime in north‐eastern Cambodia over the course of the Holocene, and discuss implications of these long‐term data for fire management in the present day. Location Southern Ratanakiri Province, north‐eastern Cambodia. The lake sites sampled here are embedded in a mosaic of mostly open, strongly deciduous dipterocarp forest, with patches of riparian, semi‐evergreen and evergreen forests. Methods Background information on the environmental and cultural setting comes from informal and semi‐structured interviews of local villagers to determine present‐day burning patterns and customs. Primary data come from analysis of changes in charcoal concentration within sediments from small, closed basin lakes. Charcoal data are compared with changes in pollen and sediment physical characteristics, and to present‐day local customs, to infer or speculate on changes in human use of fire. Results Interviews with local people reveal two general types of human‐induced fires, one type for swidden cultivation in denser forests, the other type for clearance of ground layer vegetation in more open forests. A 9300‐year sediment record of microscopic charcoal deposition shows strongest fire activity ending by 8000 years ago, and the remainder of the early Holocene reflecting a strong summer monsoon and low fire activity. Beginning c. 5500 years ago, forest disturbance and fire activity increased. A subtle change in the record at c. 3500 years ago and more marked change at c. 2500 years ago suggest that fire frequency, and maybe human control over fire, became more important during that period and continuing up to the present. Main conclusions With this type of empirical data from only one site, it is impossible to make accurate conclusions about long‐term human impacts from burning. However, this record does show that present‐day charcoal input from fire activity is among the lowest for the last 9300 years. Considered together with other changes in the record and with present‐day customs, there is a suggestion that anthropogenic fire is an adaptation to the monsoonal environment, and may be conservative of forest cover in open forest formations. This long‐term perspective on the role of indigenous land‐use customs in landscape evolution should be considered in forest management and biological conservation, as it differs significantly from the traditional rationale for policies of fire suppression in tropical forests.     

基于负二项和零膨胀负二项回归模型的大兴安岭地区雷击火与气象因素的关系

雷击火的发生与气象因子之间存在着密切的关系。该文选用符合大兴安岭地区林火发生数据结构的负二项(negative binomial,NB)和零膨胀负二项(zero-inflated negative binomial,ZINB)两种模型对大兴安岭林区1980–2005年间雷击火的发生与气象因素间的关系进行建模分析,并与以往研究中所使用的最小二乘(OLS)回归方法相对比。使用SAS和R-Project统计软件进行模型拟合运算,计算得出模型各参数。结果表明,NB和ZINB模型对数据拟合较好,模型内各气象因子显著性水平较高,对雷击火发生次数均具有较好的预测能力。运用AIC和Vuong等检验方法,进一步比较了NB和ZINB模型对数据的拟合水平以及模型预测水平,结果表明ZINB模型无论在数据拟合还是模型预测上都要优于NB模型。提出了大兴安岭地区林火发生与气象因子关系的最优模型。     

不同区域森林火灾对生态因子的响应及其概率模型

火灾是影响森林生态系统过程的重要干扰之一,其对森林生态系统内各生态因子的响应各不相同.由于植被状况及生态环境的不同,森林火灾的时空分布特征在中国不同植被气候类型内表现不同,根据植被气候类型分类系统,将中国主要森林火灾地区划分为4个区域:东北(冷温带松林)、华北(落叶阔叶林)、东南(常绿阔叶林)和西南(热带雨林),应用遥感监测数据和地面环境数据,以时空变量、生态因子(植被生长变化指数、湿度等)为可选自变量,应用半参数化Logistic回归模型,就森林火险对不同生态影响因子的响应规律进行了分析,建立了基于生态因子的着火概率模型和大火蔓延概率模型,通过模拟及实际数据散点图、火险概率图,评估了模型应用价值.结果表明,土壤湿度及植被含水量在落叶阔叶林、常绿阔叶林、热带雨林地区对着火概率影响显著.在4个植被气候区内,土壤及凋落物湿度对大火蔓延的作用较小.在冷温带松林、落叶阔叶林、常绿阔叶林地区,植被生长的年内变化对火灾发生的影响显著,在常绿阔叶林地区,年内植被生长变化对大火蔓延的作用较小.森林火险概率与各生态因子的相关关系主要呈现出非线性.不同植被气候区内,火险概率受不同生态因子组合的影响,这与不同区域的植被状况及生态环境不同有关.在不同植被气候类型,应用时空变量、生态因子建立半参数化logistic回归模型,进行着火概率和大火蔓延概率的模拟具有可行性和实际应用能力.为进一步分析森林生态系统与火灾之间的动态关系、展开生态系统火灾干扰研究提供了理论基础.     

Modelling the Meteorological Forest Fire Niche in Heterogeneous Pyrologic Conditions

Fire regimes are strongly related to weather conditions that directly and indirectly influence fire ignition and propagation. Identifying the most important meteorological fire drivers is thus fundamental for daily fire risk forecasting. In this context, several fire weather indices have been developed focussing mainly on fire-related local weather conditions and fuel characteristics. The specificity of the conditions for which fire danger indices are developed makes its direct transfer and applicability problematic in different areas or with other fuel types. In this paper we used the low-to-intermediate fire-prone region of Canton Ticino as a case study to develop a new daily fire danger index by implementing a niche modelling approach (Maxent). In order to identify the most suitable weather conditions for fires, different combinations of input variables were tested (meteorological variables, existing fire danger indices or a combination of both). Our findings demonstrate that such combinations of input variables increase the predictive power of the resulting index and surprisingly even using meteorological variables only allows similar or better performances than using the complex Canadian Fire Weather Index (FWI). Furthermore, the niche modelling approach based on Maxent resulted in slightly improved model performance and in a reduced number of selected variables with respect to the classical logistic approach. Factors influencing final model robustness were the number of fire events considered and the specificity of the meteorological conditions leading to fire ignition.     

呼中林区火烧点格局分析及影响因素

林火是森林生态系统景观格局、动态和生态过程的重要自然驱动力,理解林火发生空间格局与影响因素对于林火安全管理具有重要的作用。采用点格局分析方法,以黑龙江大兴安岭呼中林区1990-2005年火烧数据为研究案例,分析了火烧点空间格局及其影响因素。结果表明,火烧点在空间上的分布是不均匀的,呈现聚集分布,存在一些火烧高发区和低发区。呼中林区火烧概率是0.004-0.012次/(km² · a),平均火烧概率为0.0077次/(km² · a)。人类活动因子、地形因子和植被因子对林火的发生均具有重要作用。应用空间点格局分析方法表明,距离居民点和道路的距离、高程、坡度和林型是影响林火发生的显著因子。因此在进行森林防火管理时,仅仅通过控制人类活动对于降低林火火险的效果是有限的,地形和林型也是林火防控时重点要考虑的因素。     

Optimization of Landscape Services under Uncoordinated Management by Multiple Landowners

Landscapes are often patchworks of private properties, where composition and configuration patterns result from cumulative effects of the actions of multiple landowners. Securing the delivery of services in such multi-ownership landscapes is challenging, because it is difficult to assure tight compliance to spatially explicit management rules at the level of individual properties, which may hinder the conservation of critical landscape features. To deal with these constraints, a multi-objective simulation-optimization procedure was developed to select non-spatial management regimes that best meet landscape-level objectives, while accounting for uncoordinated and uncertain response of individual landowners to management rules. Optimization approximates the non-dominated Pareto frontier, combining a multi-objective genetic algorithm and a simulator that forecasts trends in landscape pattern as a function of management rules implemented annually by individual landowners. The procedure was demonstrated with a case study for the optimum scheduling of fuel treatments in cork oak forest landscapes, involving six objectives related to reducing management costs (1), reducing fire risk (3), and protecting biodiversity associated with mid- and late-successional understories (2). There was a trade-off between cost, fire risk and biodiversity objectives, that could be minimized by selecting management regimes involving ca. 60% of landowners clearing the understory at short intervals (around 5 years), and the remaining managing at long intervals (ca. 75 years) or not managing. The optimal management regimes produces a mosaic landscape dominated by stands with herbaceous and low shrub understories, but also with a satisfactory representation of old understories, that was favorable in terms of both fire risk and biodiversity. The simulation-optimization procedure presented can be extended to incorporate a wide range of landscape dynamic processes, management rules and quantifiable objectives. It may thus be adapted to other socio-ecological systems, particularly where specific patterns of landscape heterogeneity are to be maintained despite imperfect management by multiple landowners.     

The relative importance of intrinsic and extrinsic factors in the decline of obligate seeder forests

Forests that regenerate exclusively from seed following high‐severity fire are particularly vulnerable to local extinction if fire frequency leaves insufficient time for regenerating plants to reach sexual maturity. We evaluate the relative importance of extrinsic (such as fire weather and climate cycles) and intrinsic (such as proneness to fire due to stand age and structural development) factors in driving the decline of obligate seeder forests. We illustrate this using obligate seeding alpine ash (Eucalyptus delegatensis) forests in the montane regions of Victoria, Australia, that were burnt by megafires in 2003 (142,256 ha) or 2007 (79,902 ha), including some twice‐burnt areas (11,599 ha). Geospatial analyses showed only a small effect of stand age on the remote sensing estimates of crown defoliation, but a substantial effect of forest fire weather, as measured by forest fire danger index (FFDI). Analysis of meteorological data over the last century showed that 5‐year increases in FFDI precede cycle major fires in the E. delegatensis forests. Such strong extrinsic climate/weather driving of high‐severity fires is consistent with the ‘interval squeeze model’ that postulates the vulnerability of obligate seeder forests to landscape‐scale demographic collapse in response to worsening fire weather under climate change.     

Wildfire risk for main vegetation units in a biodiversity hotspot: modeling approach in New Caledonia,South Pacific

Wildfire has been recognized as one of the most ubiquitous disturbance agents to impact on natural environments. In this study, our main objective was to propose a modeling approach to investigate the potential impact of wildfire on biodiversity. The method is illustrated with an application example in New Caledonia where conservation and sustainable biodiversity management represent an important challenge. Firstly, a biodiversity loss index, including the diversity and the vulnerability indexes, was calculated for every vegetation unit in New Caledonia and mapped according to its distribution over the New Caledonian mainland. Then, based on spatially explicit fire behavior simulations (using the FLAMMAP software) and fire ignition probabilities, two original fire risk assessment approaches were proposed: a one‐off event model and a multi‐event burn probability model. The spatial distribution of fire risk across New Caledonia was similar for both indices with very small localized spots having high risk. The patterns relating to highest risk are all located around the remaining sclerophyll forest fragments and are representing 0.012% of the mainland surface. A small part of maquis and areas adjacent to dense humid forest on ultramafic substrates should also be monitored. Vegetation interfaces between secondary and primary units displayed high risk and should represent priority zones for fire effects mitigation. Low fire ignition probability in anthropogenic‐free areas decreases drastically the risk. A one‐off event associated risk allowed localizing of the most likely ignition areas with potential for extensive damage. Emergency actions could aim limiting specific fire spread known to have high impact or consist of on targeting high risk areas to limit one‐off fire ignitions. Spatially explicit information on burning probability is necessary for setting strategic fire and fuel management planning. Both risk indices provide clues to preserve New Caledonia hot spot of biodiversity facing wildfires.