Quality improvement report: The “jaundice hotline” for the rapid assessment of patients with jaundice

ProblemPatients with jaundice require rapid diagnosis and treatment, yet such patients are often subject to delay.DesignAn open referral, rapid access jaundice clinic was established by reorganisation of existing services and without the need for significant extra resources.

Background and setting

A large general hospital in a largely rural and geographically isolated area.

Key measures for improvement

Waiting times for referral, consultation, diagnosis, and treatment, length of stay in hospital, and general practitioners'' and patients'' satisfaction with the service.

Strategies for change

Referrals were made through a 24 hour telephone answering machine and fax line. Initial assessment of patients was carried out by junior staff as part of their working week. Dedicated ultrasonography appointments were made available.

Effects of change

Of 107 patients seen in the first year of the service, 62 had biliary obstruction. The mean time between referral and consultation was 2.5 days. Patients who went on to endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography waited 5.7 days on average. The mean length of stay in hospital in the 69 patients who were admitted was 6.1 days, compared with 11.5 days in 1996, as shown by audit data. Nearly all the 36 general practices (95%) and the 30 consecutive patients (97%) that were surveyed rated the service as above average or excellent.

Lessons learnt

An open referral, rapid access service for patients with jaundice can shorten time to diagnosis and treatment and length of stay in hospital. These improvements can occur through the reorganisation of existing services and with minimal extra cost.     

Effect of smoke-free workplaces on smoking behaviour: systematic review

ObjectiveTo quantify the effects of smoke-free workplaces on smoking in employees and compare these effects to those achieved through tax increases.DesignSystematic review with a random effects meta-analysis.SettingWorkplaces in the United States, Australia, Canada, and Germany.ParticipantsEmployees in unrestricted and totally smoke-free workplaces.ResultsTotally smoke-free workplaces are associated with reductions in prevalence of smoking of 3.8% (95% confidence interval 2.8% to 4.7%) and 3.1 (2.4 to 3.8) fewer cigarettes smoked per day per continuing smoker. Combination of the effects of reduced prevalence and lower consumption per continuing smoker yields a mean reduction of 1.3 cigarettes per day per employee, which corresponds to a relative reduction of 29%. To achieve similar reductions the tax on a pack of cigarettes would have to increase from $0.76 to $3.05 (€0.78 to €3.14) in the United States and from £3.44 to £6.59 (€5.32 to €10.20) in the United Kingdom. If all workplaces became smoke-free, consumption per capita in the entire population would drop by 4.5% in the United States and 7.6% in the United Kingdom, costing the tobacco industry $1.7 billion and £310 million annually in lost sales. To achieve similar reductions tax per pack would have to increase to $1.11 and £4.26.ConclusionsSmoke-free workplaces not only protect non-smokers from the dangers of passive smoking, they also encourage smokers to quit or to reduce consumption.

What is already known on this topic

Smoke-free workplaces are associated with lower cigarette consumption per continuing smoker

What this study adds

Smoke-free workplaces reduce prevalence of smoking as well as consumptionThe combined effects of people stopping smoking and reducing consumption reduces total cigarette consumption by 29%To achieve similar results through taxation would require cigarette taxes per pack to increase from $0.76 to $3.05 in the United States and from £3.44 to £6.59 in the United Kingdom     

Quality improvement report: Safety and efficacy of nurse initiated thrombolysis in patients with acute myocardial infarction

ProblemDelay in starting thrombolytic treatment in patients arriving at hospital with chest pain who are diagnosed as having acute myocardial infarction.DesignAudit of “door to needle times” for patients presenting with chest pain and an electrocardiogram on admission that confirmed acute myocardial infarction. A one year period in each of three phases of development was studied.

Background and setting

The goal of the national service framework for coronary heart disease is that by April 2002, 75% of eligible patients should receive thrombolysis within 30 minutes of arriving at hospital. A district general hospital introduced a strategy to improve door to needle times. In phase 1 (1989-95), patients with suspected acute myocardial infarction, referred by general practitioners, were assessed in the coronary care unit; all other patients were seen first in the accident and emergency department. In phase 2 (1995-7), all patients with suspected acute myocardial infarction were transferred directly to a fast track area within the coronary care unit, where nurses assess patients and doctors started treatment.

Key measures for improvement

Median door to needle time in phase 1 of 45 minutes (range 5-300 minutes), with 38% of patients treated within 30 minutes. Median door to needle time in phase 2 of 40 minutes (range 5-180 minutes), with 47% treated within 30 minutes

Strategies for change

In phase 3 (1997-2001), all patients with suspected acute myocardial infarction were transferred directly to the fast track area and assessed by a “coronary care thrombolysis nurse.” If electrocardiography confirmed the diagnosis of acute myocardial infarction, the nurse could initiate thrombolytic therapy (subject to guidelines and exclusions determined by the consultant cardiologists).

Effects of change

Median door to needle time in phase 3 of 15 minutes (range 5-70 minutes), with 80% of patients treated within 30 minutes. Systematic clinical review showed no cases in which a nurse initiated inappropriate thrombolysis.

Lessons learnt

Thrombolysis started by nurses is safe and effective in patients with acute myocardial infarction. It may provide a way by which the national service framework''s targets for door to needle times can be achieved.     

Characterising the nationwide burden and predictors of unkept outpatient appointments in the National Health Service in England: A cohort study using a machine learning approach

BackgroundUnkept outpatient hospital appointments cost the National Health Service £1 billion each year. Given the associated costs and morbidity of unkept appointments, this is an issue requiring urgent attention. We aimed to determine rates of unkept outpatient clinic appointments across hospital trusts in the England. In addition, we aimed to examine the predictors of unkept outpatient clinic appointments across specialties at Imperial College Healthcare NHS Trust (ICHT). Our final aim was to train machine learning models to determine the effectiveness of a potential intervention in reducing unkept appointments.Methods and findingsUK Hospital Episode Statistics outpatient data from 2016 to 2018 were used for this study. Machine learning models were trained to determine predictors of unkept appointments and their relative importance. These models were gradient boosting machines. In 2017–2018 there were approximately 85 million outpatient appointments, with an unkept appointment rate of 5.7%. Within ICHT, there were almost 1 million appointments, with an unkept appointment rate of 11.2%. Hepatology had the highest rate of unkept appointments (17%), and medical oncology had the lowest (6%). The most important predictors of unkept appointments included the recency (25%) and frequency (13%) of previous unkept appointments and age at appointment (10%). A sensitivity of 0.287 was calculated overall for specialties with at least 10,000 appointments in 2016–2017 (after data cleaning). This suggests that 28.7% of patients who do miss their appointment would be successfully targeted if the top 10% least likely to attend received an intervention. As a result, an intervention targeting the top 10% of likely non-attenders, in the full population of patients, would be able to capture 28.7% of unkept appointments if successful. Study limitations include that some unkept appointments may have been missed from the analysis because recording of unkept appointments is not mandatory in England. Furthermore, results here are based on a single trust in England, hence may not be generalisable to other locations.ConclusionsUnkept appointments remain an ongoing concern for healthcare systems internationally. Using machine learning, we can identify those most likely to miss their appointment and implement more targeted interventions to reduce unkept appointment rates.

Sion Phillpott-Morgan and co-workers study occurrence and possible predictors of unkept outpatient appointments in the UK.     

A cognitive behavioural intervention to reduce sexually transmitted infections among gay men: randomised trial

ObjectiveTo determine the effectiveness of a brief cognitive behavioural intervention in reducing the incidence of sexually transmitted infections among gay men.DesignRandomised controlled trial with 12 months'' follow up.SettingSexual health clinic in London.Participants343 gay men with an acute sexually transmitted infection or who reported having had unprotected anal intercourse in the past year.Results72% (361/499) of men invited to enter the study did so. 90% (308/343) of participants returned at least one follow up questionnaire or re-attended the clinic and requested a check up for sexually transmitted infections during follow up. At baseline, 37% (63/172) of the intervention group and 30% (50/166) of the control group reported having had unprotected anal intercourse in the past month. At 12 months, the proportions were 27% (31/114) and 32% ( 39/124) respectively (P=0.56). However, 31% (38/123) of the intervention group and 21% (35/168) of controls had had at least one new infection diagnosed at the clinic (adjusted odds ratio 1.66, 95% confidence interval 1.00 to 2.74). Considering only men who requested a check up for sexually transmitted infections, the proportion diagnosed with a new infection was 58% (53/91) for men in the intervention group and 43% (35/81) for men in the control group (adjusted odds ratio 1.84, 0.99 to 3.40). Using a regional database that includes information from 23 sexual health clinics in London, we determined that few participants had attended other sexual health clinics.ConclusionsThis behavioural intervention was acceptable and feasible to deliver, but it did not reduce the risk of acquiring a new sexually transmitted infection among these gay men at high risk. Even carefully designed interventions should not be assumed to bring benefit. It is important to evaluate their effects in randomised trials with objective clinical end points.

What is already known on this topic

The need for effective HIV prevention strategies based on reducing sexual risk behaviour remains importantFew interventions to reduce sexual risk behaviour have been rigorously evaluated using randomised controlled trials

What this study adds

This is the first randomised controlled trial of an intervention addressing sexual behaviour in homosexual men that uses sexually transmitted infections and self reported behaviour as end pointsThe intervention was brief and feasible to use in a busy clinic, but it did not reduce the risk of participants acquiring new infectionsThe potential for behavioural interventions to do more harm than good needs to be taken seriously     

Referral for menstrual problems: cross sectional survey of symptoms,reasons for referral,and management

ObjectivesTo describe the menstrual experience of women referred for menstrual problems, in particular menorrhagia (excessive menstrual loss), and to assess associations with reasons for referral given by their general practitioners, the women''s understanding of the reasons for their attendance at the hospital clinics, and clinic outcome.DesignQuestionnaire survey, with partial review of case notes after 8 months.SettingThree hospital gynaecology clinics in Glasgow and Edinburgh.Participants952 women completed the questionnaire, and the first 665 were reviewed.ResultsOnly 38% (95% confidence interval 34% to 41%) of women reported excessive menstrual loss as a severe problem. However 60% (57-63%) gave it as reason for attending a clinic, and 76% (73-79%) of general practitioners gave it as reason for referral. Reason for referral was significantly biased towards bleeding (McNemar odds ratio 4.01, 3.0 to 5.3, P<0.001) and against pain (0.54, 0.4 to 0.7, P<0.001). Dysfunctional uterine bleeding was diagnosed in 37% (31-42%) of the 259 women who gave as reason for attendance something other than bleeding. Women who were economically disadvantaged differed in prevalence of the main diagnoses and were more likely to fail to reattend. Hysterectomy was associated with referral for bleeding (relative risk 4.9, 1.6 to 15.6, P<0.001) but not with the patient stating bleeding as the reason for clinic attendance.ConclusionsIntolerance of the volume of their bleeding is not a key feature among women attending clinics for bleeding problems. Broad menstrual complaint tends to be reframed as excessive bleeding at referral and during management. This may result in women receiving inappropriate care. Conceptualisation and assessment of menorrhagia requires reconsideration.

What is already known on this topic

Excessive menstrual loss (menorrhagia) is one of the commonest reasons for secondary referral of women, but there is no formalised clinical assessment in routine useManagement typically involves potent drugs or invasive surgery, with 60% of women having hysterectomy within 5 yearsMany women referred for menorrhagia have menstrual blood loss that is not excessive

What this study adds

Discordance exists between symptoms and both referral and diagnostic pathways, arising from a disproportionate focus on menstrual bleedingAmong women referred for menorrhagia, volume of bleeding is not a key symptomThis raises concerns about conceptualisation and assessment of menstrual complaint and the appropriateness of healthcare provision     

Career destinations seven years on among doctors who qualified in the United Kingdom in 1988: postal questionnaire survey

ObjectiveTo report the career choices and career destinations in 1995 of doctors who qualified in the United Kingdom in 1988.DesignPostal questionnaire.SettingUnited Kingdom.SubjectsAll doctors who qualified in the United Kingdom in 1988.ResultsOf the 3724 doctors who were sent questionnaires, eight had died and three declined to participate. Of the remaining 3713 doctors, 2885 (77.7%) replied. 16.9% (608/3593; 95% confidence interval 16.1% to 17.8%) of all 1988 qualifiers from medical schools in Great Britain were not working in the NHS in Great Britain in 1995 compared with 17.0% (624/3674; 16.1% to 17.9%) of the 1983 cohort in 1990. The proportion of doctors working in general practice was lower than in previous cohorts. The percentage of women in general practice (44.3% (528/1192)) substantially exceeded that of men (33.1% (443/1340)). 53% (276/522) of the women in general practice and 20% (98/490) of the women in hospital specialties worked part time.ConclusionsConcerns about recruitment difficulties in general practice are justified. Women are now entering general practice in greater numbers than men. There is no evidence of a greater exodus from the NHS from the 1988 qualifiers than from earlier cohorts.

Key messages

• This study reports the career progress to September 1995 of doctors who qualified in 1988
• Loss from the British NHS, at 16.9% (95% confidence interval, 16.1% to 17.8%), was no greater than among earlier qualifiers at the same time after qualification
• The proportion of doctors working in general practice (38%) was lower than in earlier cohorts studied
• In this generation of doctors, women in general practice now outnumber men
• Fifty three per cent of the women in general practice and 20% of the women in hospital specialties were working on a part time or flexible basis

     

Synergism between allergens and viruses and risk of hospital admission with asthma: case-control study

ObjectiveTo investigate the importance of sensitisation and exposure to allergens and viral infection in precipitating acute asthma in adults resulting in admission to hospital.DesignCase-control study.SettingLarge district general hospital.Participants60 patients aged 17-50 admitted to hospital over a year with acute asthma, matched with two controls: patients with stable asthma recruited from the outpatient department and patients admitted to hospital with non-respiratory conditions (inpatient controls).ResultsViruses were detected in 31 of 177 patients. The difference in the frequency of viruses detected between the groups was significant (admitted with asthma 26%, stable asthma 18%, inpatient controls 9%; P=0.04). A significantly higher proportion of patients admitted with asthma (66%) were sensitised and exposed to either mite, cat, or dog allergen than patients with stable asthma (37%) and inpatient controls (15%; P<0.001). Being sensitised and exposed to allergens was an independent associate of the group admitted to hospital (odds ratio 2.3, 95% confidence interval 1.0 to 5.4; P=0.05), whereas the combination of sensitisation, high exposure to one or more allergens, and viral detection considerably increased the risk of being admitted with asthma (8.4, 2.1 to 32.8; P=0.002).ConclusionsAllergens and viruses may act together to exacerbate asthma.

What is already known on this topic

Studies on segmental allergen challenge of the lung and experimental rhinovirus infection show synergistic effects between allergens and respiratory virus infectionNo studies have investigated an interaction between sensitisation, exposure to allergens, and virus infections in real life exacerbations of asthma

What this study adds

Allergens and viruses may act together to exacerbate asthma, indicating that domestic exposure to allergens acts synergistically with viruses in sensitised patients, increasing the risk of hospital admissionStrategies to reduce the impact of asthma exacerbations in adults should include interventions directed at both viruses and reducing exposure to allergens     

Injection with methylprednisolone proximal to the carpal tunnel: randomised double blind trial

ObjectiveTo assess the effect of a 40 mg methylprednisolone injection proximal to the carpal tunnel in patients with the carpal tunnel syndrome.DesignRandomised double blind placebo controlled trial. SettingOutpatient neurology clinic in a district general hospital.ParticipantsPatients with symptoms of the carpal tunnel syndrome for more than 3 months, confirmed by electrophysiological tests and aged over 18 years.InterventionInjection with 10 mg lignocaine (lidocaine) or 10 mg lignocaine and 40 mg methylprednisolone. Non-responders who had received lignocaine received 40 mg methylprednisolone and 10 mg lignocaine and were followed in an open study.ResultsAt 1 month 6 (20%) of 30 patients in the control group had improved compared with 23 (77%) of 30 patients the intervention group (difference 57% (95% confidence interval 36% to 77%)). After 1 year, 2 of 6 improved patients in the control group did not need a second treatment, compared with 15 of 23 improved patients in the intervention group (difference 43% (23% to 63%). Of the 28 non-responders in the control group, 24 (86%) improved after methylprednisolone. Of these 24 patients, 12 needed surgical treatment within one year.ConclusionA single injection with steroids close to the carpal tunnel may result in long term improvement and should be considered before surgical decompression.

Key messages

• Corticosteroid injections into the carpal tunnel may damage the nerve, and any treatment benefits may be of short duration
• A single injection with steroids proximal to the carpal tunnel improves 77% of patients with the carpal tunnel syndrome at one month after treatment
• This single injection is still effective at one year in half of the patients
• Injections proximal to the carpal tunnel have no side effects and are easier to carry out than injections into the carpal tunnel

     

Effect of Peer Health Workers on AIDS Care in Rakai,Uganda: A Cluster-Randomized Trial

Background

Human resource limitations are a challenge to the delivery of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low-resource settings. We conducted a cluster randomized trial to assess the effect of community-based peer health workers (PHW) on AIDS care of adults in Rakai, Uganda.

Methodology/Principal Findings

15 AIDS clinics were randomized 2∶1 to receive the PHW intervention (n = 10) or control (n = 5). PHW tasks included clinic and home-based provision of counseling, clinical, adherence to ART, and social support. Primary outcomes were adherence and cumulative risk of virologic failure (>400 copies/mL). Secondary outcomes were virologic failure at each 24 week time point up to 192 weeks of ART. Analysis was by intention to treat. From May 2006 to July 2008, 1336 patients were followed. 444 (33%) of these patients were already on ART at the start of the study. No significant differences were found in lack of adherence (<95% pill count adherence risk ratio [RR] 0.55, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.23–1.35; <100% adherence RR 1.10, 95% CI 0.94–1.30), cumulative risk of virologic failure (RR 0.81, 95% CI 0.61–1.08) or in shorter-term virologic outcomes (24 week virologic failure RR 0.93, 95% CI 0.65–1.32; 48 week, RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.47–1.48; 72 week, RR 0.81, 95% CI 0.44–1.49). However, virologic failure rates ≥96 weeks into ART were significantly decreased in the intervention arm compared to the control arm (96 week failure RR 0.50, 95% CI 0.31–0.81; 120 week, RR 0.59, 95% CI 0.22–1.60; 144 week, RR 0.39, 95% CI 0.16–0.95; 168 week, RR 0.30, 95% CI 0.097–0.92; 192 week, RR 0.067, 95% CI 0.0065–0.71).

Conclusions/Significance

A PHW intervention was associated with decreased virologic failure rates occurring 96 weeks and longer into ART, but did not affect cumulative risk of virologic failure, adherence measures, or shorter-term virologic outcomes. PHWs may be an effective intervention to sustain long-term ART in low-resource settings.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00675389","term_id":"NCT00675389"}}NCT00675389     

Male Perspectives on Incorporating Men into Antenatal HIV Counseling and Testing

Background

Male partner involvement in antenatal voluntary HIV counseling and testing (VCT) has been shown to increase uptake of interventions to reduce the risk of HIV transmission in resource-limited settings. We aimed to identify methods for increasing male involvement in antenatal VCT and determine male correlates of accepting couple counseling in these settings.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We invited women presenting to a Nairobi antenatal clinic to return with their male partners for individual or couples VCT. Male attitudes towards VCT and correlates of accompanying female partners to antenatal clinic and receiving couple counseling were determined. Of 1,993 women who invited their partner, 313 (16%) returned with their partners to ANC. Men attending antenatal clinic were married (>99%), employed (98%), and unlikely to report prior HIV testing (14%). Wanting an HIV test (87%) or health information (11%) were the most commonly cited reasons for attending. Most (95%) men who came to antenatal clinic accepted HIV testing and 39% elected to receive counseling as a couple. Men who received counseling with partners were younger, had fewer children, and were less knowledgeable about prevention of mother-to-child HIV transmission (PMTCT) than those who received counseling individually (p<0.05). Only 27% of men stated they would prefer HIV testing at a site other than the ANC. There was agreement between male and female reports for sociodemographic characteristics; however, men were more likely to report HIV preventive behaviors and health communication within the partnership than their partners (p<0.05).

Conclusions/Significance

Offering VCT services to men at antenatal clinic with options for couple and individual counseling is an important opportunity and acceptable strategy for increasing male involvement in PMTCT and promoting male HIV testing.     

Evaluation of a structured test and a parent led method for screening for speech and language problems: prospective population based study

ObjectiveTo evaluate two methods for identifying speech and language problems in preschool children.DesignProspective population based study.SettingInner London.ResultsReference assessments and usable scores were obtained for 458 (97%) of the 474 children screened. 98 (21%) children had severe language problems and 131 (29%) needed therapy. The sensitivity and specificity for the structured screening test were 66% (95% confidence interval 53% to 76%) and 89% (85% to 93%) respectively for severe language problems and 54% (43% to 65%) and 90% (85% to 93%) for those needing therapy. The sensitivity and specificity for referral by the parent led method were 56% (40% to 71%) and 85% (78% to 90%) for severe language problems and 58% (44% to 71%) and 90% (83% to 94%) for those needing speech and language therapy.ConclusionsBoth approaches failed to detect a substantial proportion of children with severe language problems and led to over-referral for diagnostic assessments. Screening is likely to be an ineffective approach to the management of speech and language problems in preschool children in this population.

What is already known on this topic

Moderate to severe language difficulties in young children are predictive of long term problems affecting learning, school achievement, and behaviourFormal screening tests are widely used, but relying on parents'' observations and health professionals'' clinical judgment may be more effective in identifying children needing therapy

What this study adds

A commonly used screening test and an approach based on parents'' observations and health visitors'' judgment fail to identify a substantial proportion of children with serious language problems and lead to the over-referral of children without serious difficulties     

Prevalence of left ventricular systolic dysfunction and heart failure in high risk patients: community based epidemiological study

ObjectivesTo determine the prevalence of left ventricular systolic dysfunction, and of heart failure due to different causes, in patients with risk factors for these conditions.DesignEpidemiological study, including detailed clinical assessment, electrocardiography, and echocardiography.Setting16 English general practices, representative for socioeconomic status and practice type.Participants1062 patients (66% response rate) with previous myocardial infarction, angina, hypertension, or diabetes.ResultsDefinite systolic dysfunction (ejection fraction <40%) was found in 54/244 (22.1%, 95% confidence interval 17.1% to 27.9%) patients with previous myocardial infarction, 26/321 (8.1%, 5.4% to 11.6%) with angina, 7/388 (1.8%, 0.7% to 3.7%) with hypertension, and 12/208 (5.8%, 3.0% to 9.9%) with diabetes. In each group, approximately half of these patients had symptoms of dyspnoea, and therefore had heart failure. Overall rates of heart failure, defined as symptoms of dyspnoea plus objective evidence of cardiac dysfunction (systolic dysfunction, atrial fibrillation, or clinically significant valve disease) were 16.0% (11.6% to 21.2%) in patients with previous myocardial infarction, 8.4% (5.6% to 12.0%) in those with angina, 2.8% (1.4% to 5.0%) in those with hypertension, and 7.7% (4.5% to 12.2%) in those with diabetes.ConclusionMany people with ischaemic heart disease or diabetes have systolic dysfunction or heart failure. The data support the need for trials of targeted echocardiographic screening, in view of the major benefits of modern treatment. In contrast, patients with uncomplicated hypertension have similar rates to the general population.

What is already known on this topic

The prognosis and symptoms of patients with left ventricular systolic dysfunction and heart failure can be greatly improved by modern treatmentsMany patients with heart failure do not have an assessment of left ventricular function, resulting in undertreatment of the condition

What this study adds

Patients with a history of ischaemic heart disease (especially those with previous myocardial infarction) or diabetes commonly have left ventricular systolic dysfunctionThese patients would be candidates for a targeted echocardiographic screening programmeIn contrast, the yield from screening patients with uncomplicated hypertension would be low     

Accuracy of Ottawa ankle rules to exclude fractures of the ankle and mid-foot: systematic review

ObjectiveTo summarise the evidence on accuracy of the Ottawa ankle rules, a decision aid for excluding fractures of the ankle and mid-foot.DesignSystematic review.Results32 studies met the inclusion criteria and 27 studies reporting on 15 581 patients were used for meta-analysis. The pooled negative likelihood ratios for the ankle and mid-foot were 0.08 (95% confidence interval 0.03 to 0.18) and 0.08 (0.03 to 0.20), respectively. The pooled negative likelihood ratio for both regions in children was 0.07 (0.03 to 0.18). Applying these ratios to a 15% prevalence of fracture gave a less than 1.4% probability of actual fracture in these subgroups.ConclusionEvidence supports the Ottawa ankle rules as an accurate instrument for excluding fractures of the ankle and mid-foot. The instrument has a sensitivity of almost 100% and a modest specificity, and its use should reduce the number of unnecessary radiographs by 30-40%.

What is already known on this topic

Although most patients with ankle sprains who present to emergency departments undergo radiography, less than 15% have a fractureThe Ottawa ankle rules is a clinical decision aid designed to avoid unnecessary radiography

What this paper adds

The Ottawa ankle rules is highly accurate at excluding ankle fractures after sprain injury     

Program Spending to Increase Adherence: South African Cervical Cancer Screening

Background

Adherence is crucial for public health program effectiveness, though the benefits of increasing adherence must ultimately be weighed against the associated costs. We sought to determine the relationship between investment in community health worker (CHW) home visits and increased attendance at cervical cancer screening appointments in Cape Town, South Africa.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We conducted an observational study of 5,258 CHW home visits made in 2003–4 as part of a community-based screening program. We estimated the functional relationship between spending on these visits and increased appointment attendance (adherence). Increased adherence was noted after each subsequent CHW visit. The costs of making the CHW visits was based on resource use including both personnel time and vehicle-related expenses valued in 2004 Rand. The CHW program cost R194,018, with 1,576 additional appointments attended. Adherence increased from 74% to 90%; 55% to 87%; 48% to 77%; and 56% to 80% for 6-, 12-, 24-, and 36-month appointments. Average per-woman costs increased by R14–R47. The majority of this increase occurred with the first 2 CHW visits (90%, 83%, 74%, and 77%; additional cost: R12–R26).

Conclusions/Significance

We found that study data can be used for program planning, identifying spending levels that achieve adherence targets given budgetary constraints. The results, derived from a single disease program, are retrospective, and should be prospectively replicated.     

Mortality of Patients Lost to Follow-Up in Antiretroviral Treatment Programmes in Resource-Limited Settings: Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

The retention of patients in antiretroviral therapy (ART) programmes is an important issue in resource-limited settings. Loss to follow up can be substantial, but it is unclear what the outcomes are in patients who are lost to programmes.

Methods and Findings

We searched the PubMed, EMBASE, Latin American and Caribbean Health Sciences Literature (LILACS), Indian Medlars Centre (IndMed) and African Index Medicus (AIM) databases and the abstracts of three conferences for studies that traced patients lost to follow up to ascertain their vital status. Main outcomes were the proportion of patients traced, the proportion found to be alive and the proportion that had died. Where available, we also examined the reasons why some patients could not be traced, why patients found to be alive did not return to the clinic, and the causes of death. We combined mortality data from several studies using random-effects meta-analysis. Seventeen studies were eligible. All were from sub-Saharan Africa, except one study from India, and none were conducted in children. A total of 6420 patients (range 44 to 1343 patients) were included. Patients were traced using telephone calls, home visits and through social networks. Overall the vital status of 4021 patients could be ascertained (63%, range across studies: 45% to 86%); 1602 patients had died. The combined mortality was 40% (95% confidence interval 33%–48%), with substantial heterogeneity between studies (P<0.0001). Mortality in African programmes ranged from 12% to 87% of patients lost to follow-up. Mortality was inversely associated with the rate of loss to follow up in the programme: it declined from around 60% to 20% as the percentage of patients lost to the programme increased from 5% to 50%. Among patients not found, telephone numbers and addresses were frequently incorrect or missing. Common reasons for not returning to the clinic were transfer to another programme, financial problems and improving or deteriorating health. Causes of death were available for 47 deaths: 29 (62%) died of an AIDS defining illness.

Conclusions

In ART programmes in resource-limited settings a substantial minority of adults lost to follow up cannot be traced, and among those traced 20% to 60% had died. Our findings have implications both for patient care and the monitoring and evaluation of programmes.     

Detection of Alzheimer's disease and dementia in the preclinical phase: population based cohort study

ObjectivesTo evaluate a simple three step procedure to identify people in the general population who are in the preclinical phase of Alzheimer''s disease and dementia.DesignThree year population based cohort study.SettingKungsholmen cohort, Stockholm, Sweden.Participants1435 people aged 75-95 years without dementia.AssessmentsSingle question asking about memory complaints, assessment by mini-mental state examination, and neuropsychological testing.ResultsNone of the three instruments was sufficiently predictive of Alzheimer''s disease and dementia when administered separately. After participants had been screened for memory complaints and global cognitive impairment, specific tests of word recall and verbal fluency had positive predictive values for dementia of 85-100% (95% confidence intervals range from 62% to 100%). However, only 18% of future dementia cases were identified in the preclinical phase by this three step procedure. Memory complaints were the most sensitive indicator of Alzheimer''s disease and dementia in the whole population, but only half the future dementia cases reported memory problems three years before diagnosis.ConclusionThis three step procedure, which simulates what might occur in clinical practice, has a high positive predictive value for dementia, although only a small number of future cases can be identified.

What is already known on this topic

Alzheimer''s disease is characterised by a preclinical phase, during which cognitive deficits are seen before diagnosisElderly people with subjective memory complaints and objective global cognitive impairment have a high risk of developing Alzheimer''s disease and dementia

What this study adds

This three step procedure (self report of memory complaints, test of global cognitive functioning, and then domain specific cognitive tests) has a positive predictivity of 85-100% for Alzheimer''s disease and dementia at three yearsHowever, only 18% of people in the preclinical phase can be identified using this procedureAbout half of the people in the preclinical phase of Alzheimer''s disease and dementia do not report problems with their memory three years before diagnosis     

Measuring later health status of high risk infants: randomised comparison of two simple methods of data collection

ObjectiveTo test two methods of providing low cost information on the later health status of survivors of neonatal intensive care.DesignCluster randomised comparison.SettingNine hospitals distributed across two UK health regions. Each hospital was randomised to use one of two methods of follow up.ParticipantsAll infants born ⩽32 weeks'' gestation during 1997 in the study hospitals.MethodFamilies were recruited at the time of discharge. In one method of follow up families were asked to complete a questionnaire about their child''s health at the age of 2 years (corrected for gestation). In the other method the children''s progress was followed by clerks in the local community child health department by using sources of routine information.Results236 infants were recruited to each method of follow up. Questionnaires were returned by 214 parents (91%; 95% confidence interval 84% to 97%) and 223 clerks (95%; 86% to 100%). Completed questionnaires were returned by 201 parents (85%; 76% to 94%) and 158 clerks (67%; 43% to 91%). Most parents found the forms easy to complete, but some had trouble understanding the concept of “corrected age” and hence when to return the form. Community clerks often had to rely on information that was out of date and difficult to interpret.ConclusionNeither questionnaires from parents nor routinely collected health data are adequate methods of providing complete follow up data on children who were born preterm and required neonatal intensive care, though both methods show potential.

What is already known on this topic

Outcome of neonatal intensive care should include later health status not just early mortalityAlthough these data are commonly sought, for various reasons no existing routine system currently delivers the information for ⩾95% of the population (95% representing the minimum acceptable standard)Running one-off studies to gain later follow up data is difficult and costly

What this study adds

Potentially these data could come from parents but to reach 95% ascertainment perhaps 5-10% of parents would require help and support to provide informationExisting data flows may be able to provide the required information if the timing of routine reviews and methods of data recording were harmonised across the United KingdomThe costs attached to introducing such a system seem to be low     

Effect of postal prompts to patients and general practitioners on the quality of primary care after a coronary event (POST): randomised controlled trial

ObjectivesTo determine whether postal prompts to patients who have survived an acute coronary event and to their general practitioners improve secondary prevention of coronary heart disease.DesignRandomised controlled trial.Setting52 general practices in east London, 44 of which had received facilitation of local guidelines for coronary heart disease.Participants328 patients admitted to hospital for myocardial infarction or unstable angina.InterventionsPostal prompts sent 2 weeks and 3 months after discharge from hospital. The prompts contained recommendations for lowering the risk of another coronary event, including changes to lifestyle, drug treatment, and making an appointment to discuss these issues with the general practitioner or practice nurse.ResultsPrescribing of β bockers (odds ratio 1.7, 95% confidence interval 0.8 to 3.0, P>0.05) and cholesterol lowering drugs (1.7, 0.8 to 3.4, P>0.05) did not differ between intervention and control groups. A higher proportion of patients in the intervention group (64%) than in the control group (38%) had their serum cholesterol concentrations measured (2.9, 1.5 to 5.5, P<0.001). Secondary outcomes were significantly improved for consultations for coronary heart disease, the recording of risk factors, and advice given. There were no significant differences in patients’ self reported changes to lifestyle or to the belief that it is possible to modify the risk of another coronary event.ConclusionsPostal prompts to patients who had had acute coronary events and to their general practitioners in a locality where guidelines for coronary heart disease had been disseminated did not improve prescribing of effective drugs for secondary prevention or self reported changes to lifestyle. The prompts did increase consultation rates related to coronary heart disease and the recording of risk factors in the practices. Effective secondary prevention of coronary heart disease requires more than postal prompts and the dissemination of guidelines.

Key messages

• Postal prompts to patients and their general practitioners about effective secondary prevention after a myocardial infarction did not improve the prescribing of cholesterol lowering drugs and β blockers
• The prompts did improve general practice recording of cardiovascular risk factors and lifestyle advice given to patients, but they made no difference to patients’ reports of changes to lifestyle
• Other methods are needed to improve the quality of secondary prevention of coronary heart disease in general practice