Stable adaptive algorithm for simultaneous estimation of time-varying parameters and state variables in aerobic bioprocesses

The application of modern model based control algorithms in the bioprocesses is hampered by the lack of accurate and cheap on-line sensors, capable of providing on-line measurements of the main process variables and parameters. In this paper, a new approach for estimation of immeasurable time-varying parameters and state variable is presented for a class of aerobic bioprocesses using only on-line measurements of the oxygen uptake rate. The approach consists in the design of a new parameter estimator of biomass growth rate and yield coefficient for oxygen consumption on the basis of the theory of adaptive estimation. The dynamical equation of the measurable reaction rate, oxygen uptake rate, is presented as a linear one with respect to the biomass growth rate and the yield coefficient for oxygen consumption. In this way, the structure of the proposed estimator becomes linear time-varying one. After some mathematical transformations, that structure is presented in a form, allowing to be derived the stability conditions using some theoretical results concerning the stability of adaptive observers. The estimates of the yield coefficient for oxygen consumption, the biomass concentration and specific growth rate are obtained then on the basis of the generated estimates using well known kinetic models of bioprocesses. With respect to previous similar approaches, the new estimation algorithm gives stable estimates not only of immeasurable state variable and reaction rates but likewise of an yield coefficient. The behavior of the proposed estimator is studied under inexact initial conditions, step changes of dilution rate and in the presence of measurement noise by simulations using a process model, which belongs to the investigated class of bioprocesses.     

An algorithmic approach to constructing the on-line estimation system for the specific growth rate

The objective of this article is to propose an algorithm for the on-line estimation of the specific growth rate in a batch or a fed-batch fermentation process. The algorithm shows the practical procedure for the estimation method utilizing the macroscopic balance and the extended Kalman filter. A number of studies of the on line estimation have been presented. However, there are few studies discussing about the selection of the observed variables and for the tuning of some parameters of the extended Kalman filter, such as covariance matrix and initial values of the state.The beginning of this article is devoted to explain the selection of the observed variable. This information is very important in terms of the practical know-how for using technique. It is discovered that the condition number is a practically useful and valid criterion for number is a practically useful and valid criterion for choosing the variable to be observed.Next, when the extended Kalman filter in applied to the online estimation of the specific growth rate, which is directly unmeasurable, criteria for judging the validity of the estimated value from the observed data are proposed. Based on the proposed criterial, the system equation of the specific growth rate is selected and initial value of the state variable and covariance matrix of the system noises are adjusted. From many experiments, it is certified that the specific growth rate in the batch or fed -batch fermentation can be estimated accurately by means of the algorithm proposed here. In these experiments, that is, when the cell concentration is measured directly, the extended Kalman filter using the convariance matrix with a constant element can estimate more accurately values of the specific growth rate than the adaptive extended Kalman filter does.     

Physiologically Motivated Monitoring of Fermentation Processes by Means of an Electronic Nose

An on‐line approach of non‐invasive monitoring of the physiological changes in fermentation processes is presented. In yeast batch and bacterial fed‐batch fermentations it is shown that metabolic state changes can be revealed using an electronic nose. The transient responses of the gas sensors to the changes in the composition of the volatiles emitted from the cell cultures during fermentation are used to retrieve a semi‐quantitative representation of the physiological state of the cultures. With the sensor responses of the electronic nose it is shown that physiological variables such as rates of growth, substrate uptake and product formation can be depicted. The non‐invasive method thus seems as a pertinent alternative to conventional bioreactor monitoring methods.     

A variational approach to parameter estimation in ordinary differential equations

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Ordinary differential equations are widely-used in the field of systems biology andchemical engineering to model chemical reaction networks. Numerous techniques havebeen developed to estimate parameters like rate constants, initial conditions or steady stateconcentrations from time-resolved data. In contrast to this countable set of parameters, theestimation of entire courses of network components corresponds to an innumerable set ofparameters. RESULTS: The approach presented in this work is able to deal with course estimation for extrinsicsystem inputs or intrinsic reactants, both not being constrained by the reaction networkitself. Our method is based on variational calculus which is carried out analytically toderive an augmented system of differential equations including the unconstrainedcomponents as ordinary state variables. Finally, conventional parameter estimation isapplied to the augmented system resulting in a combined estimation of courses andparameters. CONCLUSIONS: The combined estimation approach takes the uncertainty in input courses correctly intoaccount. This leads to precise parameter estimates and correct confidence intervals. Inparticular this implies that small motifs of large reaction networks can be analysedindependently of the rest. By the use of variational methods, elements from control theoryand statistics are combined allowing for future transfer of methods between the two fields.     

Online nonlinear sequential Bayesian estimation of a biological wastewater treatment process

Online estimation of unknown state variables is a key component in the accurate modelling of biological wastewater treatment processes due to a lack of reliable online measurement systems. The extended Kalman filter (EKF) algorithm has been widely applied for wastewater treatment processes. However, the series approximations in the EKF algorithm are not valid, because biological wastewater treatment processes are highly nonlinear with a time-varying characteristic. This work proposes an alternative online estimation approach using the sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods for recursive online state estimation of a biological sequencing batch reactor for wastewater treatment. SMC is an algorithm that makes it possible to recursively construct the posterior probability density of the state variables, with respect to all available measurements, through a random exploration of the states by entities called ‘particle’. In this work, the simplified and modified Activated Sludge Model No. 3 with nonlinear biological kinetic models is used as a process model and formulated in a dynamic state-space model applied to the SMC method. The performance of the SMC method for online state estimation applied to a biological sequencing batch reactor with online and offline measured data is encouraging. The results indicate that the SMC method could emerge as a powerful tool for solving online state and parameter estimation problems without any model linearization or restrictive assumptions pertaining to the type of nonlinear models for biological wastewater treatment processes.     

Estimating linear causality in the presence of latent variables

Learning causality from data is known as the causal discovery problem, and it is an important and relatively new field. In many applications, there often exist latent variables, if such latent variables are completely ignored, which can lead to the estimation results seriously biased. In this paper, a method of combining exploratory factor analysis and path analysis (EFA-PA) is proposed to infer the causality in the presence of latent variables. Our method expands latent variables as well as their linear causal relationships with observed variables, which enhances the accuracy of causal models. Such model can be thought of as the simplest possible causal models for continuous data. The EFA-PA is very similar to that of structural equation model, but the theoretical model established by the structural equation model needs to be modified in the process of data fitting until the ideal model is established.The model gained by EFA-PA not only avoids subjectivity but also reduces estimation complexity. It is found that the EFA-PA estimation model is superior to the other models. EFA-PA can provides a basis for the correct estimation of the causal relationship between the observed variables in the presence of latent variables. The experiment shows that EFA-PA is better than the structural equation model.     

Numerical discretization-based estimation methods for ordinary differential equation models via penalized spline smoothing with applications in biomedical research

Differential equations are extensively used for modeling dynamics of physical processes in many scientific fields such as engineering, physics, and biomedical sciences. Parameter estimation of differential equation models is a challenging problem because of high computational cost and high-dimensional parameter space. In this article, we propose a novel class of methods for estimating parameters in ordinary differential equation (ODE) models, which is motivated by HIV dynamics modeling. The new methods exploit the form of numerical discretization algorithms for an ODE solver to formulate estimating equations. First, a penalized-spline approach is employed to estimate the state variables and the estimated state variables are then plugged in a discretization formula of an ODE solver to obtain the ODE parameter estimates via a regression approach. We consider three different order of discretization methods, Euler's method, trapezoidal rule, and Runge-Kutta method. A higher-order numerical algorithm reduces numerical error in the approximation of the derivative, which produces a more accurate estimate, but its computational cost is higher. To balance the computational cost and estimation accuracy, we demonstrate, via simulation studies, that the trapezoidal discretization-based estimate is the best and is recommended for practical use. The asymptotic properties for the proposed numerical discretization-based estimators are established. Comparisons between the proposed methods and existing methods show a clear benefit of the proposed methods in regards to the trade-off between computational cost and estimation accuracy. We apply the proposed methods t an HIV study to further illustrate the usefulness of the proposed approaches.     

Nonlinear estimation of specific growth rate for aerobic fermentation processes

The specific growth rate of the biomass, a very important parameter of almost every fermentation process, cannot be measured directly or estimated from related variables, as the concentrations of biomass, substrates, or products, due to the lack of reliable and cheap sensors. In this article a stable adaptive estimator of the specific growth rate is designed for those aerobic processes where the measurement of the oxygen uptake rate is available on-line. This particular approach can be applied also for other reaction rates if the model of the process satisfies some very general assumptions, which make the dynamics of the measured reaction rate a nonlinear function only of two unknown parameters, the specific growth rate and its time derivative. With respect to a previous similar approach, the new estimator has one additional parameter and a different nonlinear structure. From the analysis of the dynamics of the estimation error, a tuning criterion is derived, by which the two different algorithms can be compared under similar conditions. Simulation results show a good performance of both estimators for various kind of processes and disturbances. (c) 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

Product formation kinetics in genetically modified <Emphasis Type="Italic">E. coli </Emphasis>bacteria: inclusion body formation

A data-driven model is presented that can serve two important purposes. First, the specific growth rate and the specific product formation rate are determined as a function of time and thus the dependency of the specific product formation rate from the specific biomass growth rate. The results appear in form of trained artificial neural networks from which concrete values can easily be computed. The second purpose is using these results for online estimation of current values for the most important state variables of the fermentation process. One only needs online data of the total carbon dioxide production rate (tCPR) produced and an initial value x of the biomass, i.e., the size of the inoculum, for model evaluation. Hence, given the inoculum size and online values of tCPR, the model can directly be employed as a softsensor for the actual value of the biomass, the product mass as well as the specific biomass growth rate and the specific product formation rate. In this paper the method is applied to fermentation experiments on the laboratory scale with an E. coli strain producing a recombinant protein that appears in form of inclusion bodies within the cells’ cytoplasm.     

An explicit expression for determining cometabolism kinetics using progress curve analysis

We present an explicit expression for describing the kinetics of cometabolic biotransformation of environmental pollutants. This expression is based on the Lambert W function and explicitly relates the substrate concentration, S, to time, t, the two experimentally measured variables. This explicit relationship simplifies kinetic parameter estimation as differential equation solution and iterative estimation of the substrate concentration are eliminated. The applicability of this new expression for nonlinear kinetic parameter estimation was first demonstrated using noise containing synthetic data where final estimates of the kinetic parameters were very close to their actual values. Subsequently 1.1.1-trichloroethane degradation data at initial concentrations of 750 and 375 μM were described using the explicit expression resulting in r and K(s) estimates of 0.26 μM/mg d and 28.08 μM and 0.30 μM/mg d and 28.70 μM, respectively, very similar to 0.276 μM/mg d and 31.2 μM, respectively, that were reported in the original study. The new explicit expression presented in this study simplifies estimation of cometabolic kinetic parameters and can be easily used across all computational platforms thereby providing an attractive alternative for progress curve analysis.     

Developing seed zones and transfer guidelines with multivariate regression trees

Managing seed movement is an important component of forest resource management to minimize maladaptation of planting stock in forest plantations. Here, we describe a new approach to analyze geographic patterns of adaptive and neutral genetic variation in forest trees and to link this genetic information to geographic variables for the delineation of seed zones and the development of seed transfer guidelines. We apply multivariate regression trees to partition genetic variation, using a set of environmental or geographic predictor variables as partitioning criteria in a series of dichotomous splits of the genetic dataset. The method can be applied to any type of genetic data (growth, adaptive, or marker traits) and can simultaneously evaluate multiple traits observed over several environments. The predictor variables can be categorical (e.g., ecosystem of seed source), continuous (e.g., geographic or climate variables), or a combination of both. Different sets of predictor variables can be used for different purposes: In two case studies for aspen and red alder, we show (1) how latitude, longitude, and elevation of seed sources in a provenance trial can be used to develop simple seed transfer guidelines; (2) how ecosystem classes and elevation as predictor variables can be used to delineate seed zones and breeding regions; and (3) how climate variables as predictors can reveal adaptation of genotypes to the environments in which they occur. Partitioning of genetic variation appears very robust regarding the choice of predictor variables, and we find that the method is a powerful aid for interpreting complex genetic datasets.     

On-line measurements of culture fluorescence: Method and application

Summary In this paper a new probe allowing the measurement of NAD(P)H-dependent culture fluorescence in a bioreactor is presented. This sterilizable probe can be inserted in every bioreactor using a standard fitting of 25 mm. Under well defined conditions high specificity and sensitivity as well as high stability are further advantages of this probe. Application examples are given to demonstrate the operation possibilities of this fluorescence probe. In batch growth the culture fluorescence can be used for on-line estimation of biomass concentration. Metabolic alterations due to substrate of oxygen deficiency can easily be detected by fluorometric measurements. In kinetic studies the fluorescence probe is of great use because of a very small time delay.     

Spatially balanced sampling through the pivotal method

A simple method to select a spatially balanced sample using equal or unequal inclusion probabilities is presented. For populations with spatial trends in the variables of interest, the estimation can be much improved by selecting samples that are well spread over the population. The method can be used for any number of dimensions and can hence also select spatially balanced samples in a space spanned by several auxiliary variables. Analysis and examples indicate that the suggested method achieves a high degree of spatial balance and is therefore efficient for populations with trends.     

The estimation of growth yield and maintenance parameters for photoautotrophic growth

Methods are presented for examining the consistency of experimental data for microbial growth where light energy is converted to chemical energy through photosynthesis. True growth yield and maintenance parameters are estimated for several sets of available experimental data. Methods of parameter estimation are presented which allow all of the measured variables to be used simultaneously for parameter estimation. The results show that a wide range of values have been found for the true growth yield and maintenance parameters. Values of the true growth yield range from 0.04 to values above those predicted by the Z-scheme model for photosynthesis.     

A new method for dealing with residual spatial autocorrelation in species distribution models

Species distribution modelling (SDM) is a widely used tool and has many applications in ecology and conservation biology. Spatial autocorrelation (SAC), a pattern in which observations are related to one another by their geographic distance, is common in georeferenced ecological data. SAC in the residuals of SDMs violates the ‘independent errors’ assumption required to justify the use of statistical models in modelling species’ distributions. The autologistic modelling approach accounts for SAC by including an additional term (the autocovariate) representing the similarity between the value of the response variable at a location and neighbouring locations. However, autologistic models have been found to introduce bias in the estimation of parameters describing the influence of explanatory variables on habitat occupancy. To address this problem we developed an extension to the autologistic approach by calculating the autocovariate on SAC in residuals (the RAC approach). Performance of the new approach was tested on simulated data with a known spatial structure and on strongly autocorrelated mangrove species’ distribution data collected in northern Australia. The RAC approach was implemented as generalized linear models (GLMs) and boosted regression tree (BRT) models. We found that the BRT models with only environmental explanatory variables can account for some SAC, but applying the standard autologistic or RAC approaches further reduced SAC in model residuals and substantially improved model predictive performance. The RAC approach showed stronger inferential performance than the standard autologistic approach, as parameter estimates were more accurate and statistically significant variables were accurately identified. The new RAC approach presented here has the potential to account for spatial autocorrelation while maintaining strong predictive and inferential performance, and can be implemented across a range of modelling approaches.     

A fast and reliable computational method for estimating population genetic parameters

The estimation of ancestral and current effective population sizes in expanding populations is a fundamental problem in population genetics. Recently it has become possible to scan entire genomes of several individuals within a population. These genomic data sets can be used to estimate basic population parameters such as the effective population size and population growth rate. Full-data-likelihood methods potentially offer a powerful statistical framework for inferring population genetic parameters. However, for large data sets, computationally intensive methods based upon full-likelihood estimates may encounter difficulties. First, the computational method may be prohibitively slow or difficult to implement for large data. Second, estimation bias may markedly affect the accuracy and reliability of parameter estimates, as suggested from past work on coalescent methods. To address these problems, a fast and computationally efficient least-squares method for estimating population parameters from genomic data is presented here. Instead of modeling genomic data using a full likelihood, this new approach uses an analogous function, in which the full data are replaced with a vector of summary statistics. Furthermore, these least-squares estimators may show significantly less estimation bias for growth rate and genetic diversity than a corresponding maximum-likelihood estimator for the same coalescent process. The least-squares statistics also scale up to genome-sized data sets with many nucleotides and loci. These results demonstrate that least-squares statistics will likely prove useful for nonlinear parameter estimation when the underlying population genomic processes have complex evolutionary dynamics involving interactions between mutation, selection, demography, and recombination.     

Structured modeling and state estimation in a fermentation process: Lipase production by Candida rugosa

A simple structured mathematical model coupled with a methodology of state and parameter estimation is developed for lipase production by Candida rugosa in batch fermentation. The model describes the system according to the following qualitative observations and hypothesis: Lipase production is induced by extracellular oleic acid present in the medium. The acid is transported into the cell where it is consumed, transformed, and stored. Lipase is excreted to the medium where it is distributed between the available oil-water interphase and aqueous phase. Cell growth is modulated by the intracellular substrate concentration. Model parameters have been determined and the whole model validated against experiments not used in their determination. The estimation problem consists in the estimation of three state variables (biomass, intra- and extracellular substrate) and two kinetic parameters by using only the on-line measurement provided by exhaust gas analysis. The presented estimation strategy divides the complex problem into three subproblems that can be solved by stable algorithms. The estimation of biomass (X) and the specific growth rate (mu), is achieved by a recursive prediction error algorithm using the on-line measurement of the carbon dioxide evolution rate. mu is then used to perform an estimation of intracellular substrate and the other kinetic parameter related to substrate transport (A) by an adaptive observer. Extracellular substrate is then evaluated by means of the estimated values of intracellular substrate and biomass through the material balance of the reactor. Simulation and experimental tests showed good performance of the developed estimator, which appears suitable to be used for process control and monitoring. (c) 1995 John Wiley & Sons, Inc.     

A new approach for estimating the efficiencies of the nucleotide substitution models

In this article, a new approach is presented for estimating the efficiencies of the nucleotide substitution models in a four-taxon case and then this approach is used to estimate the relative efficiencies of six substitution models under a wide variety of conditions. In this approach, efficiencies of the models are estimated by using a simple probability distribution theory. To assess the accuracy of the new approach, efficiencies of the models are also estimated by using the direct estimation method. Simulation results from the direct estimation method confirmed that the new approach is highly accurate. The success of the new approach opens a unique opportunity to develop analytical methods for estimating the relative efficiencies of the substitution models in a straightforward way.     

Parameter estimation of a monod-type model. Part II: Use of a neural network with associative memories

Summary On the basis of a previous study related with parameter identifiability and sensitivity analysis of a Monod-type model, a parameter estimation method based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) with Associative Memories (AMs) is presented. A combination of an iterative procedure and a convergence index given by AMs allows to confirm the nature of relations existing between state variables and parameters which were found in the first part of the study. The convergence criterion is particularly well adapted to showing various influences of state variables on parameter estimation of such a model.     

Sedimentation of generalized systems of interacting particles. II. Active enzyme centrifugation--theory and extensions of its validity range.

The first detailed application of a recently published very general approach to chemical equilibria during sedimentation is presented. As a consequence of the very extensive theoretical treatment, made possible by this approach, the active enzyme analytical centrifugation method can now be used under a far wider set of conditions than before, including the study of many interacting active molecule systems. It has also been shown that this method is as precise as the more conventional ones.