Use of Surveillance Data on HIV Diagnoses with HIV-Related Symptoms to Estimate the Number of People Living with Undiagnosed HIV in Need of Antiretroviral Therapy

Background

It is important to have methods available to estimate the number of people who have undiagnosed HIV and are in need of antiretroviral therapy (ART).

Methods

The method uses the concept that a predictable level of occurrence of AIDS or other HIV-related clinical symptoms which lead to presentation for care, and hence diagnosis of HIV, arises in undiagnosed people with a given CD4 count. The method requires surveillance data on numbers of new HIV diagnoses with HIV-related symptoms, and the CD4 count at diagnosis. The CD4 count-specific rate at which HIV-related symptoms develop are estimated from cohort data. 95% confidence intervals can be constructed using a simple simulation method.

Results

For example, if there were 13 HIV diagnoses with HIV-related symptoms made in one year with CD4 count at diagnosis between 150–199 cells/mm³, then since the CD4 count-specific rate of HIV-related symptoms is estimated as 0.216 per person-year, the estimated number of person years lived in people with undiagnosed HIV with CD4 count 150–199 cells/mm3 is 13/0.216 = 60 (95% confidence interval: 29–100), which is considered an estimate of the number of people living with undiagnosed HIV in this CD4 count stratum.

Conclusions

The method is straightforward to implement within a short period once a surveillance system of all new HIV diagnoses, collecting data on HIV-related symptoms at diagnosis, is in place and is most suitable for estimating the number of undiagnosed people with CD4 count <200 cells/mm3 due to the low rate of developing HIV-related symptoms at higher CD4 counts. A potential source of bias is under-diagnosis and under-reporting of diagnoses with HIV-related symptoms. Although this method has limitations as with all approaches, it is important for prompting increased efforts to identify undiagnosed people, particularly those with low CD4 count, and for informing levels of unmet need for ART.     

Measuring the Impact of Antiretroviral Therapy Roll-Out on Population Level Fertility in Three African Countries

Background

UNAIDS official estimates of national HIV prevalence are based on trends observed in antenatal clinic surveillance, after adjustment for the reduced fertility of HIV positive women. Uptake of ART may impact on the fertility of HIV positive women, implying a need to re-estimate the adjustment factors used in these calculations. We analyse the effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART) provision on population-level fertility in Southern and East Africa, comparing trends in HIV infected women against the secular trends observed in uninfected women.

Methods

We used fertility data from four community-based demographic and HIV surveillance sites: Kisesa (Tanzania), Masaka and Rakai (Uganda) and uMkhanyakude (South Africa). All births to women aged 15–44 years old were included in the analysis, classified by mother’s age and HIV status at time of birth, and ART availability in the community. Calendar time period of data availability relative to ART Introduction varied across the sites, from 5 years prior to ART roll-out, to 9 years after. Calendar time was classified according to ART availability, grouped into pre ART, ART introduction (available in at least one health facility serving study site) and ART available (available in all designated health facilities serving study site). We used Poisson regression to calculate age adjusted fertility rate ratios over time by HIV status, and investigated the interaction between ART period and HIV status to ascertain whether trends over time were different for HIV positive and negative women.

Results

Age-adjusted fertility rates declined significantly over time for HIV negative women in all four studies. However HIV positives either had no change in fertility (Masaka, Rakai) or experienced a significant increase over the same period (Kisesa, uMkhanyakude). HIV positive fertility was significantly lower than negative in both the pre ART period (age adjusted fertility rate ratio (FRR) range 0.51 95%CI 0.42–0.61 to 0.73 95%CI 0.64–0.83) and when ART was widely available (FRR range 0.57 95%CI 0.52–0.62 to 0.83 95%CI 0.78–0.87), but the difference has narrowed. The interaction terms describing the difference in trends between HIV positives and negatives are generally significant.

Conclusions

Differences in fertility between HIV positive and HIV negative women are narrowing over time as ART becomes more widely available in these communities. Routine adjustment of ANC data for estimating national HIV prevalence will need to allow for the impact of treatment.     

Prognostic Value of the Fibrosis-4 Index in Human Immunodeficiency Virus Type-1 Infected Patients Initiating Antiretroviral Therapy with or without Hepatitis C Virus

Objective

To evaluate the Fibrosis (FIB)-4 index as a predictor of major liver-related events (LRE) and liver-related death (LRD) in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) type-1 patients initiating combination antiretroviral therapy (cART).

Design

Retrospective analysis of a prospective cohort study.

Setting

Italian HIV care centers participating to the ICONA Foundation cohort.

Participants

Treatment-naive patients enrolled in ICONA were selected who: initiated cART, had hepatitis C virus (HCV) serology results, were HBsAg negative, had an available FIB-4 index at cART start and during follow up.

Methods

Cox regression models were used to determine the association of FIB4 with the risk of major LRE (gastrointestinal bleeding, ascites, hepatic encephalopathy, hepato-renal syndrome or hepatocellular carcinoma) or LRD.

Results

Three-thousand four-hundred seventy-five patients were enrolled: 73.3% were males, 27.2% HCV seropositive. At baseline (time of cART initiation) their median age was 39 years, had a median CD4+ T cell count of 260 cells/uL, and median HIV RNA 4.9 log copies/mL, 65.9% had a FIB-4 <1.45, 26.4% 1.45–3.25 and 7.7% >3.25. Over a follow up of 18,662 person-years, 41 events were observed: 25 major LRE and 16 LRD (incidence rate, IR, 2.2 per 1,000 PYFU [95% confidence interval, CI 1.6–3.0]). IR was higher in HCV seropositives as compared to negatives (5.9 vs 0.5 per 1,000 PYFU). Higher baseline FIB-4 category as compared to <1.45 (FIB-4 1.45–3.25: HR 3.55, 95% CI 1.09–11.58; FIB-4>3.25: HR 4.25, 1.21–14.92) and time-updated FIB-4 (FIB-4 1.45–3.25: HR 3.40, 1.02–11.40; FIB-4>3.25: HR 21.24, 6.75–66.84) were independently predictive of major LRE/LRD, after adjusting for HIV- and HCV-related variables, alcohol consumption and type of cART.

Conclusions

The FIB-4 index at cART initiation, and its modification over time are risk factors for major LRE or LRD, independently of infection with HCV and could be used to monitor patients on cART.     

A Decline in New HIV Infections in South Africa: Estimating HIV Incidence from Three National HIV Surveys in 2002, 2005 and 2008

Background

Three national HIV household surveys were conducted in South Africa, in 2002, 2005 and 2008. A novelty of the 2008 survey was the addition of serological testing to ascertain antiretroviral treatment (ART) use.

Methods and Principal Findings

We used a validated mathematical method to estimate the rate of new HIV infections (HIV incidence) in South Africa using nationally representative HIV prevalence data collected in 2002, 2005 and 2008. The observed HIV prevalence levels in 2008 were adjusted for the effect of antiretroviral treatment on survival. The estimated “excess” HIV prevalence due to ART in 2008 was highest among women 25 years and older and among men 30 years and older. In the period 2002–2005, the HIV incidence rate among men and women aged 15–49 years was estimated to be 2.0 new infections each year per 100 susceptible individuals (/100pyar) (uncertainty range: 1.2–3.0/100pyar). The highest incidence rate was among 15–24 year-old women, at 5.5/100pyar (4.5–6.5). In the period 2005–2008, incidence among men and women aged 15–49 was estimated to be 1.3/100 (0.6–2.5/100pyar), although the change from 2002–2005 was not statistically significant. However, the incidence rate among young women aged 15–24 declined by 60% in the same period, to 2.2/100pyar, and this change was statistically significant. There is evidence from the surveys of significant increases in condom use and awareness of HIV status, especially among youth.

Conclusions

Our analysis demonstrates how serial measures of HIV prevalence obtained in population-based surveys can be used to estimate national HIV incidence rates. We also show the need to determine the impact of ART on observed HIV prevalence levels. The estimation of HIV incidence and ART exposure is crucial to disentangle the concurrent impact of prevention and treatment programs on HIV prevalence.     

Mortality amongst Patients with Influenza-Associated Severe Acute Respiratory Illness,South Africa, 2009-2013

Introduction

Data on the burden and risk groups for influenza-associated mortality from Africa are limited. We aimed to estimate the incidence and risk-factors for in-hospital influenza-associated severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) deaths.

Methods

Hospitalised patients with SARI were enrolled prospectively in four provinces of South Africa from 2009–2013. Using polymerase chain reaction, respiratory samples were tested for ten respiratory viruses and blood for pneumococcal DNA. The incidence of influenza-associated SARI deaths was estimated at one urban hospital with a defined catchment population.

Results

We enrolled 1376 patients with influenza-associated SARI and 3% (41 of 1358 with available outcome data) died. In patients with available HIV-status, the case-fatality proportion (CFP) was higher in HIV-infected (5%, 22/419) than HIV-uninfected individuals (2%, 13/620; p = 0.006). CFPs varied by age group, and generally increased with increasing age amongst individuals >5 years (p<0.001). On multivariable analysis, factors associated with death were age-group 45–64 years (odds ratio (OR) 4.0, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.01–16.3) and ≥65 years (OR 6.5, 95%CI 1.2–34.3) compared to 1–4 year age-group who had the lowest CFP, HIV-infection (OR 2.9, 95%CI 1.1–7.8), underlying medical conditions other than HIV (OR 2.9, 95%CI 1.2–7.3) and pneumococcal co-infection (OR 4.1, 95%CI 1.5–11.2). The estimated incidence of influenza-associated SARI deaths per 100,000 population was highest in children <1 year (20.1, 95%CI 12.1–31.3) and adults aged 45–64 years (10.4, 95%CI 8.4–12.9). Adjusting for age, the rate of death was 20-fold (95%CI 15.0–27.8) higher in HIV-infected individuals than HIV-uninfected individuals.

Conclusion

Influenza causes substantial mortality in urban South Africa, particularly in infants aged <1 year and HIV-infected individuals. More widespread access to antiretroviral treatment and influenza vaccination may reduce this burden.     

Incidence of HIV and the Prevalence of HIV,Hepatitis B and Syphilis among Youths in Maputo,Mozambique: A Cohort Study

Background

Prevalence of HIV in Mozambique among individuals aged 15–49 years is 11.5%. The HIV prevalence is higher in women than in men across the country, peaking at ages 25–29 years and 35–39 years, respectively. In this study, we aimed at determining the prevalence and incidence of HIV, prevalence of Hepatitis B (HBV), and prevalence of syphilis in youths. We also characterized a cohort of youths for future participation in phase I/II HIV vaccine trials.

Methods

The study was conducted at a youth clinic in Maputo Central Hospital from August 2009 to October 2011. Youths of both genders aged 18–24 years (n = 1380) were screened for HIV using a sequential algorithm of two immunochromatographic assays, HBV using an enzyme linked immunosorbant test, and syphilis using a treponemal immunochromatographic strip test. The HIV seronegative participants (n = 1309) were followed-up for 12 months with quarterly study visits. The clinical and behavioral data were collected using structured questionnaires. The HIV seroconversions were confirmed by a molecular assay.

Results

The study population was female dominant (76.8%). All participants had a formal education, with 44.6% studying for technical or higher education degrees. The mean age at sexual debut was 16.6 years (SD: ±1.74), with 85.6% reporting more than one sexual partner in life. The screening showed the prevalence of HIV, HBV, and syphilis at 5.1% (95% CI: 3.97–6.31), 12.2% (95% CI 10.5%–14.0%), and 0.36% (95% CI 0.15%–0.84%), respectively. The HIV incidence rate was found to be 1.14/100 person years (95% CI: 0.67–1.92). Retention rates were stable throughout the study being 85.1% at the last visit.

Conclusion

Incidence of HIV in this cohort of youths in Maputo was relatively low. Also, the prevalence of HIV and syphilis was lower than the national values in this age group. However, the HBV prevalence was higher than in previous reports in the country.     

Retention in HIV Care and Predictors of Attrition from Care among HIV-Infected Adults Receiving Combination Anti-Retroviral Therapy in Addis Ababa

Background

Patient retention in chronic HIV care is a major challenge following the rapid expansion of combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) in Ethiopia.

Objective

To describe the proportion of patients who are retained in HIV care and characterize predictors of attrition among HIV-infected adults receiving cART in Addis Ababa.

Method

A retrospective analysis was conducted among 836 treatment naïve patients, who started cART between May 2009 and April 2012. Patients were randomly selected from ten health-care facilities, and their current status in HIV care was determined based on routinely available data in the medical records. Patients lost to follow-up (LTFU) were traced by telephone. Kaplan-Meier technique was used to estimate survival probabilities of retention and Cox proportional hazards regression was performed to identify the predictors of attrition.

Results

Based on individual patient data from the medical records, nearly 80% (95%CI: 76.7, 82.1) of the patients were retained in care in the first 3 and half years of antiretroviral therapy. After successfully tracing more than half of the LTFU patients, the updated one year retention in care estimate became 86% (95% CI: 83.41%, 88.17%). In the multivariate Cox regression analyses, severe immune deficiency at enrolment in care/or at cART initiation and ‘bed-ridden’ or ‘ambulatory’ functional status at the start of cART predicted attrition.

Conclusion

Retention in HIV care in Addis Ababa is comparable with or even better than previous findings from other resource-limited as well as EU/USA settings. However, measures to detect and enroll patients in HIV care as early as possible are still necessary.     

Advanced HIV Disease at Enrolment in HIV Care: Trends and Associated Factors over a Ten Year Period in Cambodia

Background

Early HIV diagnosis and enrolment in care is needed to achieve early antiretroviral treatment (ART) initiation. Studies on HIV disease stage at enrolment in care from Asian countries are limited. We evaluated trends in and factors associated with late HIV disease presentation over a ten-year period in the largest ART center in Cambodia.

Methods

We conducted a retrospective analysis of program data including all ARV-naïve adults (> 18 years old) enrolling into HIV care from March 2003-December 2013 in a non-governmental hospital in Phnom Penh, Cambodia. We calculated the proportion presenting with advanced stage HIV disease (WHO clinical stage IV or CD4 cell count <100 cells/μL) and the probability of ART initiation by six months after enrolment. Factors associated with late presentation were determined using multivariate logistic regression.

Results

From 2003–2013, a total of 5642 HIV-infected patients enrolled in HIV care. The proportion of late presenters decreased from 67% in 2003 to 44% in 2009 and 41% in 2013; a temporary increase to 52% occurred in 2011 coinciding with logistical/budgetary constraints at the national program level. Median CD4 counts increased from 32 cells/μL (IQR 11–127) in 2003 to 239 cells/μL (IQR 63–291) in 2013. Older age and male sex were associated with late presentation across the ten-year period. The probability of ART initiation by six months after enrolment increased from 22.6% in 2003–2006 to 79.9% in 2011–2013.

Conclusion

Although a gradual improvement was observed over time, a large proportion of patients still enroll late, particularly older or male patients. Interventions to achieve early HIV testing and efficient linkage to care are warranted.     

Prevalence of Hypertension in HIV/AIDS Patients on Highly Active Antiretroviral Therapy (HAART) Compared with HAART-Na?ve Patients at the Limbe Regional Hospital,Cameroon

Background

Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) has greatly reduced the morbidity and mortality of HIV/AIDS patients but has also been associated with increased metabolic complications and cardiovascular diseases. Data on the association between HAART and hypertension (HTN) in Africa are scarce.

Objectives

Primarily to compare the prevalence of HTN in HIV/AIDS patients on HAART and HAART-naïve patients in Limbe, Cameroon; and secondarily to assess other socio-demographic and clinical factors associated with HTN in this population.

Methods

A cross-sectional study was conducted at the Limbe Regional Hospital HIV treatment center between April and June 2013, involving 200 HIV/AIDS patients (100 on first-line HAART regimens for at least 12 months matched by age and sex to 100 HAART-naïve patients). HTN was defined as a systolic blood pressure (BP) ≥ 140 mmHg and/or diastolic BP ≥ 90 mmHg.

Results

The prevalence of HTN in patients on HAART was twice (38%; 95% CI: 28.5–48.3) that of the HAART-naïve patients (19%; 95% CI, 11.8–28.1), p = 0.003. In multivariate analyses adjusted for age, gender, smoking, family history of HTN, and BMI-defined overweight, HAART was associated with HTN, the adjusted odds ratio of the HAART-treated versus HAART-naïve group was 2.20 (95% CI: 1.07–4.52), p = 0.032. HTN was associated with older age and male gender, in the HAART group and with BMI-defined overweight in the HAART-naïve group.

Conclusion

The prevalence of hypertension in HIV/AIDS patients in Limbe stands out to be elevated, higher in patients on HAART compared to those not on treatment. Blood pressure and cardiovascular risk factors should be routinely monitored. Other factors such as diet, weight control and physical exercise should also be considered.     

Comparisons of Adherence to Antiretroviral Therapy in a High- Risk Population in China: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Background

Reports on antiretroviral therapy (ART) adherence are scare in China; we performed this meta-analysis to estimate ART adherence rates in different populations at high risk for HIV transmission in China.

Methods

We searched PubMed, Chinese Biomedical Literature Database (Chinese), China National Knowledge Infrastructure (Chinese), and Wanfang (Chinese) to identify studies published from January 1985 to May 2015. We used random-effects meta-analysis to calculate weighted mean estimates across studies and 95% CIs. Data were pooled with proportions transformed prior to pooling using the Freeman–Tukey double arcsine transformation and then back transformed to the original scale. We calculated the I² (and its 95% confidence intervals) and tau² to assess between-study heterogeneity.

Results

We identified 36 eligible articles, including 6885 HIV-positive individuals, reporting ART adherence. Pooled analysis produced an estimate of 77.61% (95% CI = 71.63–83.08) of patients with HIV with adequate adherence; however, high heterogeneity was observed between studies (I² = 96.60%, 95%CI = 96.00%-97.20%; tau² = 0.16). Three studies, which included 149 old HIV-infected patients, reported the highest ART adequate adherence rate (89.39%, 95% CI = 72.01–99.26) with high heterogeneity between the studies (I² = 86.20%, 95%CI = 60.00–95.20%; tau² = 0.13). While, only two studies, which included 143 heterosexual transmission group (HTG) patients, reported the lowest ART adequate adherence rate (51.55%, 95% CI = 41.33–61.71) with low heterogeneity between the studies (I² = 31.3%, tau² = 0.007). In the multivariable meta-regression model, high-risk populations was the main factor explaining heterogeneity (variance explained 28.14%).

Conclusions

ART adherence in some high-risk populations (e.g., heterosexual transmission group) is below the recommended levels for maintaining virologic suppression. It is crucial to develop comprehensive intervention strategies to promote ART adherence in high-risk populations and effectively prevent the spread of HIV/AIDS in China.     

Ongoing HIV Transmission and the HIV Care Continuum in North Carolina

Objective

HIV transmission is influenced by status awareness and receipt of care and treatment. We analyzed these attributes of named partners of persons with acute HIV infection (index AHI cases) to characterize the transmission landscape in North Carolina (NC).

Design

Secondary analysis of programmatic data.

Methods

We used data from the NC Screening and Tracing of Active Transmission Program (2002–2013) to determine HIV status (uninfected, AHI, or chronic HIV infection [CHI]), diagnosis status (new or previously-diagnosed), and care and treatment status (not in care, in care and not on treatment, in care and on treatment) of index AHI cases'' named partners. We developed an algorithm identifying the most likely transmission source among known HIV-infected partners to estimate the proportion of transmissions arising from contact with persons at different HIV continuum stages. We conducted a complementary analysis among a subset of index AHI cases and partners with phylogenetically-linked viruses.

Results

Overall, 358 index AHI cases named 932 partners, of which 218 were found to be HIV-infected (162 (74.3%) previously-diagnosed, 11 (5.0%) new AHI, 45 (20.6%) new CHI). Most transmission events appeared attributable to previously-diagnosed partners (77.4%, 95% confidence interval 69.4–85.3%). Among these previously-diagnosed partners, 23.2% (14.0–32.3%) were reported as in care and on treatment near the index AHI case diagnosis date. In the subset study of 33 phylogenetically-linked cases and partners, 60.6% of partners were previously diagnosed (43.9–77.3%).

Conclusions

A substantial proportion of HIV transmission in this setting appears attributable to contact with previously-diagnosed partners, reinforcing the need for improved engagement in care after diagnosis.     

Investigating Voluntary Medical Male Circumcision Program Efficiency Gains through Subpopulation Prioritization: Insights from Application to Zambia

Background

Countries in sub-Saharan Africa are scaling-up voluntary male medical circumcision (VMMC) as an HIV intervention. Emerging challenges in these programs call for increased focus on program efficiency (optimizing program impact while minimizing cost). A novel analytic approach was developed to determine how subpopulation prioritization can increase program efficiency using an illustrative application for Zambia.

Methods and Findings

A population-level mathematical model was constructed describing the heterosexual HIV epidemic and impact of VMMC programs (age-structured mathematical (ASM) model). The model stratified the population according to sex, circumcision status, age group, sexual-risk behavior, HIV status, and stage of infection. A three-level conceptual framework was also developed to determine maximum epidemic impact and program efficiency through subpopulation prioritization, based on age, geography, and risk profile. In the baseline scenario, achieving 80% VMMC coverage by 2017 among males 15–49 year old, 12 VMMCs were needed per HIV infection averted (effectiveness). The cost per infection averted (cost-effectiveness) was USD $1,089 and 306,000 infections were averted. Through age-group prioritization, effectiveness ranged from 11 (20–24 age-group) to 36 (45–49 age-group); cost-effectiveness ranged from $888 (20–24 age-group) to $3,300 (45–49 age-group). Circumcising 10–14, 15–19, or 20–24 year old achieved the largest incidence rate reduction; prioritizing 15–24, 15–29, or 15–34 year old achieved the greatest program efficiency. Through geographic prioritization, effectiveness ranged from 9–12. Prioritizing Lusaka achieved the highest effectiveness. Through risk-group prioritization, prioritizing the highest risk group achieved the highest effectiveness, with only one VMMC needed per infection averted; the lowest risk group required 80 times more VMMCs.

Conclusion

Epidemic impact and efficiency of VMMC programs can be improved by prioritizing young males (sexually active or just before sexual debut), geographic areas with higher HIV prevalence than the national, and high sexual-risk groups.     

Risk Factors for Death from Visceral Leishmaniasis in an Urban Area of Brazil

Background

Over the last three decades, the epidemiological profile of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) has changed with epidemics occurring in large urban centers of Brazil, an increase in HIV/AIDS co-infection, and a significant increase in mortality. The objective of this study was to identify the risk factors associated with death among adult patients with VL from an urban endemic area of Brazil.

Methodology

A prospective cohort study included 134 adult patients with VL admitted to the University Hospital of the Federal University of Mato Grosso do Sul between August 2011 and August 2013.

Principal Findings

Patients ranged from 18 to 93 years old, with a mean age of 43.6 (±15.7%). Of these patients, 36.6% were co-infected with HIV/AIDS, and the mortality rate was 21.6%. In a multivariate analysis, the risk factors associated with death were secondary bacterial infection (42.86, 5.05–363.85), relapse (12.17, 2.06–71.99), edema (7.74, 1.33–45.05) and HIV/AIDS co-infection (7.33, 1.22–43.98).

Conclusions/Significance

VL has a high mortality rate in adults from endemic urban areas, especially when coinciding with high rates of HIV/AIDS co-infection.     

Partner Notification for Reduction of HIV-1 Transmission and Related Costs among Men Who Have Sex with Men: A Mathematical Modeling Study

Background

Earlier antiretroviral treatment initiation prevents new HIV infections. A key problem in HIV prevention and care is the high number of patients diagnosed late, as these undiagnosed patients can continue forward HIV transmission. We modeled the impact on the Dutch men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM) HIV epidemic and cost-effectiveness of an existing partner notification process for earlier identification of HIV-infected individuals to reduce HIV transmission.

Methods

Reduction in new infections and cost-effectiveness ratios were obtained for the use of partner notification to identify 5% of all new diagnoses (Scenario 1) and 20% of all new diagnoses (Scenario 2), versus no partner notification. Costs and quality adjusted life years (QALYs) were assigned to each disease state and calculated over 5 year increments for a 20 year period.

Results

Partner notification is predicted to avert 18–69 infections (interquartile range [IQR] 13–24; 51–93) over the course of 5 years countrywide to 221–830 (IQR 140–299; 530–1,127) over 20 years for Scenario 1 and 2 respectively. Partner notification was considered cost-effective in the short term, with increasing cost-effectiveness over time: from €41,476 -€41, 736 (IQR €40,529-€42,147; €40,791-€42,397) to €5,773 -€5,887 (€5,134-€7,196; €5,411-€6,552) per QALY gained over a 5 and 20 year period, respectively. The full monetary benefits of partner notification by preventing new HIV infections become more apparent over time.

Conclusions

Partner notification will not lead to the end of the HIV epidemic, but will prevent new infections and be increasingly cost-effectiveness over time.     

Determinants of Desire for Children among HIV-Positive Women in the Afar Region,Ethiopia: Case Control Study

Introduction

The desire for a child in Ethiopian society is normal. Among HIV positive women, due to the risk of MTCT, it is imperative to understand factors influencing women’s desire for children. This study aimed at assessing factors associated with desire for children among HIV-positive women in two selected hospitals of Afar Regional State, Ethiopia.

Methods

A facility based case-control study was conducted among 157 cases (with a desire) and 157 controls of HIV positive individuals registered in the selected health facilities. The participants were selected by random sampling technique. Data were collected using face-to-face interview and was analyzed using logistic regression.

Result

Factors found to be independently associated with desire for children were age categories of 20–24 years (OR = 6.22, 1.29–10.87) and 25–29 years (OR = 14.6, 3.05–21.60), being married (OR = 5.51, 2.19–13.54), Afar ethnicity (OR 6.93, 1.19–12.14), having HIV-positive children (OR 0.23, 0.09–0.63), duration on ART more than one year (3.51, 1.68–9.05), CD4 count greater than 350 (OR 4.83, 1.51–7.27) and discussion of reproductive health issues with health providers (OR 0.31, 0.12–0.51).

Conclusion

Women who were young, married, Afar, those who received ART more than one year, and had CD4 count >350 were more likely to have a desire for children.

Recommendation

Health care workers at ART clinic should openly discuss about the reproductive options for the women living with HIV/AIDS.     

Albuminuria Is Associated with Traditional Cardiovascular Risk Factors and Viral Load in HIV-Infected Patients in Rural South Africa

Context

As life expectancy improves among Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV) patients, renal and cardiovascular diseases are increasingly prevalent in this population. Renal and cardiovascular disease are mutual risk factors and are characterized by albuminuria. Understanding the interactions between HIV, cardiovascular risk factors and renal disease is the first step in tackling this new therapeutic frontier in HIV.

Methods

In a rural primary health care centre, 903 HIV-infected adult patients were randomly selected and data on HIV-infection and cardiovascular risk factors were collected. Glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) was estimated. Albuminuria was defined as an Albumin-Creatinine-Ratio above 30 mg/g. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to analyse albuminuria and demographic, clinical and HIV-associated variables.

Results

The study population consisted of 903 HIV-infected patients, with a median age of 40 years (Inter-Quartile Range (IQR) 34–48 years), and included 625 (69%) women. The median duration since HIV diagnosis was 26 months (IQR 12–58 months) and 787 (87%) received antiretroviral therapy. Thirty-six (4%) of the subjects were shown to have diabetes and 205 (23%) hypertension. In the cohort, 21% had albuminuria and 2% an eGFR <60 mL/min/1.73m². Albuminuria was associated with hypertension (adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 1.59; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.05–2.41; p<0.05), total cholesterol (aOR 1.31; 95% CI 1.11–1.54; p<0.05), eGFR (aOR 0.98; 95% CI 0.97–0.99; p<0.001) and detectable viral load (aOR 2.74; 95% CI 1.56–4.79; p<0.001). Hypertension was undertreated: 78% were not receiving treatment, while another 11% were inadequately treated. No patients were receiving lipid-lowering medication.

Conclusion

Glomerular filtration rate was well conserved, while albuminuria was common amongst HIV-infected patients in rural South Africa. Both cardiovascular and HIV-specific variables were associated with albuminuria. Improved cardiovascular risk prevention as well as adequate virus suppression might be the key to escape the vicious circle of renal failure and cardiovascular disease and improve the long-term prognosis of HIV-infected patients.     

Relationship between Body Mass Index and Mortality in HIV-Infected HAART Users in the Women's Interagency HIV Study

Background

Early HIV studies suggested protective associations of overweight against mortality, yet data are lacking for the era of potent highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). We evaluated associations of pre-HAART initiation body mass index (BMI) with mortality among HAART-using women.

Methods

Prospective study of time to death after HAART initiation among continuous HAART users in the Women’s Interagency HIV Study. Unadjusted Kaplan–Meier and adjusted proportional hazards survival models assessed time to AIDS and non-AIDS death by last measured pre-HAART BMI.

Results

Of 1428 continuous HAART users 39 (2.7%) were underweight, 521 (36.5%) normal weight, 441 (30.9%) overweight, and 427 (29.9%) obese at time of HAART initiation. A total of 322 deaths occurred during median follow-up of 10.4 years (IQR 5.9–14.6). Censoring at non-AIDS death, the highest rate of AIDS death was observed among underweight women (p = 0.0003 for all 4 categories). In multivariate models, women underweight prior to HAART died from AIDS more than twice as rapidly vs. normal weight women (aHR 2.04, 95% CI 1.03, 4.04); but being overweight or obese (vs. normal weight) was not independently associated with AIDS death. Cumulative incidence of non-AIDS death was similar across all pre-HAART BMI categories.

Conclusions

Among continuous HAART-using women, being overweight prior to initiation was not associated with lower risk of AIDS or non-AIDS death. Being underweight prior to HAART was associated with over double the rate of AIDS death in adjusted analyses. Although overweight and obesity may be associated with many adverse health conditions, neither was predictive of mortality among the HAART-using women.     

Sex Differences in HIV Prevalence Persist over Time: Evidence from 18 Countries in Sub-Saharan Africa

Objective

The aim of this study was to examine changes over time in the female: male HIV prevalence ratio in 18 countries in Sub-Saharan Africa, overall and when stratified by area of residence, educational attainment and marital status.

Methodology

We used data from the Demographic and Health Surveys, which are nationally representative household surveys. By using data from 18 countries with at least two survey rounds with HIV testing, and dividing the countries into three regions (Western/Central, Eastern and Southern) we were able to examine cross-country and regional changes in the female: male HIV prevalence ratio over time. Logistic regression was used to estimate female: male HIV prevalence ratios in urban versus rural areas and for different categories of education and marital status. To assess changes over time, we compared the confidence intervals of the prevalence ratios.

Results

The female: male HIV prevalence ratio was above one in all countries in at least one survey round for both ages 15–24 years and 25–49 years. In 13 out of 18 countries the prevalence ratio was higher for the younger age group compared to the age group 25–49 years (3 significant) and this difference in prevalence ratios between the age groups did not change over time. Overall, there was a higher frequency of increasing than decreasing prevalence ratios. The gender disparity was greater among those who were married/living together than among the never-married, and over time, the ratio was more stable among the married/living together. The study found no clear differential changes by education.

Conclusion

Women continue to carry the greater burden of HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa and there is no clear pattern of change in the gap between men and women as the direction and magnitude of change in the prevalence ratios varied greatly.