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1.

Background

Poisson regression modelling has been widely used to estimate the disease burden attributable to influenza, though not without concerns that some of the excess burden could be due to other causes. This study aims to provide annual estimates of the mortality and hospitalization burden attributable to both seasonal influenza and the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic influenza for Canada, and to discuss issues related to the reliability of these estimates.

Methods

Weekly time-series for all-cause mortality and regression models were used to estimate the number of deaths in Canada attributable to influenza from September 1992 to December 2009. To assess their robustness, the annual estimates derived from different parameterizations of the regression model for all-cause mortality were compared. In addition, the association between the annual estimates for mortality and hospitalization by age group, underlying cause of death or primary reason for admission and discharge status is discussed.

Results

The crude influenza-attributed mortality rate based on all-cause mortality and averaged over 17 influenza seasons prior to the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic was 11.3 (95%CI, 10.5 - 12.1) deaths per 100 000 population per year, or an average of 3,500 (95%CI, 3,200 - 3,700) deaths per year attributable to seasonal influenza. The estimated annual rates ranged from undetectable at the ecological level to more than 6000 deaths per year over the three A/Sydney seasons. In comparison, we attributed an estimated 740 deaths (95%CI, 350–1500) to A(H1N1)pdm09. Annual estimates from different model parameterizations were strongly correlated, as were estimates for mortality and morbidity; the higher A(H1N1)pdm09 burden in younger age groups was the most notable exception.

Interpretation

With the exception of some of the Serfling models, differences in the ecological estimates of the disease burden attributable to influenza were small in comparison to the variation in disease burden from one season to another.  相似文献   

2.

Introduction

Tropical regions have been shown to exhibit different influenza seasonal patterns compared to their temperate counterparts. However, there is little information about the burden of annual tropical influenza epidemics across time, and the relationship between tropical influenza epidemics compared with other regions.

Methods

Data on monthly national mortality and population was obtained from 1947 to 2003 in Singapore. To determine excess mortality for each month, we used a moving average analysis for each month from 1950 to 2000. From 1972, influenza viral surveillance data was available. Before 1972, information was obtained from serial annual government reports, peer-reviewed journal articles and press articles.

Results

The influenza pandemics of 1957 and 1968 resulted in substantial mortality. In addition, there were 20 other time points with significant excess mortality. Of the 12 periods with significant excess mortality post-1972, only one point (1988) did not correspond to a recorded influenza activity. For the 8 periods with significant excess mortality periods before 1972 excluding the pandemic years, 2 years (1951 and 1953) had newspaper reports of increased pneumonia deaths. Excess mortality could be observed in almost all periods with recorded influenza outbreaks but did not always exceed the 95% confidence limits of the baseline mortality rate.

Conclusion

Influenza epidemics were the likely cause of most excess mortality periods in post-war tropical Singapore, although not every epidemic resulted in high mortality. It is therefore important to have good influenza surveillance systems in place to detect influenza activity.  相似文献   

3.
4.

Background

There is limited data on the epidemiology of influenza and few published estimates of influenza vaccine effectiveness (VE) from Africa. In April 2009, a new influenza virus strain infecting humans was identified and rapidly spread globally. We compared the characteristics of patients ill with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus to those ill with seasonal influenza and estimated influenza vaccine effectiveness during five influenza seasons (2005–2009) in South Africa.

Methods

Epidemiological data and throat and/or nasal swabs were collected from patients with influenza-like illness (ILI) at sentinel sites. Samples were tested for seasonal influenza viruses using culture, haemagglutination inhibition tests and/or polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and for influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 by real-time PCR. For the vaccine effectiveness (VE) analysis we considered patients testing positive for influenza A and/or B as cases and those testing negative for influenza as controls. Age-adjusted VE was calculated as 1-odds ratio for influenza in vaccinated and non-vaccinated individuals.

Results

From 2005 through 2009 we identified 3,717 influenza case-patients. The median age was significantly lower among patients infected with influenza A(H1N1)pdm09 virus than those with seasonal influenza, 17 and 27 years respectively (p<0.001). The vaccine coverage during the influenza season ranged from 3.4% in 2009 to 5.1% in 2006 and was higher in the ≥50 years (range 6.9% in 2008 to 13.2% in 2006) than in the <50 years age group (range 2.2% in 2007 to 3.7% in 2006). The age-adjusted VE estimates for seasonal influenza were 48.6% (4.9%, 73.2%); −14.2% (−9.7%, 34.8%); 12.0% (−70.4%, 55.4%); 67.4% (12.4%, 90.3%) and 29.6% (−21.5%, 60.1%) from 2005 to 2009 respectively. For the A(H1N1)pdm09 season, the efficacy of seasonal vaccine was −6.4% (−93.5%, 43.3%).

Conclusion

Influenza vaccine demonstrated a significant protective effect in two of the five years evaluated. Low vaccine coverage may have reduced power to estimate vaccine effectiveness.  相似文献   

5.

Background

Little information exists regarding the burden of HIV among tuberculosis patients in India, and no population-based surveys have been previously reported. A community-based HIV prevalence survey was conducted among tuberculosis patients treated by the national tuberculosis control programme to evaluate the HIV prevalence among tuberculosis patients in India.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Fifteen districts (total population: 40.2 million) across 8 states were stratified by HIV prevalence in antenatal clinic HIV surveillance sites and randomly selected. From December 2006 to May 2007, remnant serum was collected from patients'' clinical specimens taken after 2 months of anti-tuberculosis treatment and subjected to anonymous, unlinked HIV testing. Specimens were obtained and successfully tested for 5,995 (73%) of 8,217 tuberculosis patients eligible for the survey. HIV prevalence ranged widely among the 15 surveyed districts, from 1% in Koch Bihar, West Bengal, to 13.8% in Guntur, Andhra Pradesh. HIV infection was 1.3 times more likely among male TB patients than among female patients. Relative to smear-positive tuberculosis, HIV infection was 1.4 times more likely among smear-negative patients and 1.3 times more likely among extrapulmonary patients. In 4 higher-HIV prevalence districts, which had been previously surveyed in 2005–2006, no significant change in HIV prevalence was detected.

Conclusions

The burden of HIV among tuberculosis patients varies widely in India. Programme efforts to implement comprehensive TB-HIV services should be targeted to areas with the highest HIV burden. Surveillance through routine reporting or special surveys is necessary to detect areas requiring intensification of TB-HIV collaborative activities.  相似文献   

6.
We construct an anthropometric measure of living standards for White South Africans covering 55 years using five different military sources. Accounting for different selection across the forces, we find that prior to industrialisation, White South African males were amongst the tallest in the world. Rural living standards declined in response to natural disasters in the 1880s and 90s with those with the lowest living standards moving off the land and into the cities. We find a slight improvement in living standards after 1900 across all regions and occupations. During industrialisation, White males in South Africa continued to exhibit the highest living standards in the world as represented by their stature. Convergence to other nations in the early twentieth century shows, however, that while there may have been no industrialisation penalty, industrialisation did not lift living standards the way it did elsewhere.  相似文献   

7.

Background

In South Africa in 2010, about 340,000 children under the age of 15 were infected with HIV. We describe the increase in the treatment of South African pediatric HIV-infected patients assisted by the President’s Emergency Plan for AIDS Relief (PEPFAR) from 2004 to 2010.

Methods

We reviewed routine program data from PEPFAR-funded implementing partners among persons receiving antiretroviral treatment age 15 years old and less. Data quality was assessed during the reporting period by program officials through routine analysis of trends and logic checks. Based on UNAIDS estimated mortality rates of untreated HIV-infected children, we calculated the number of deaths averted and life-years gained in children under five receiving PEPFAR-assisted antiretroviral treatment.

Results

From October 2004 through September 2010, the number of children newly initiated on antiretroviral treatment in PEPFAR-assisted programs increased from 154 to 2,641 per month resulting in an increase from 2,412 children on antiretroviral treatment in September 2005 to 79,416 children in September 2010. Of those children who initiated antiretroviral treatment before September 2009, 0–4 year olds were 1.4 (95% CI: 1.3–1.5) times as likely to transfer out of the program or die as 5–14 year olds; males were 1.3 (95% CI: 1.0–1.7) times as likely to stop treatment as females. Approximately 27,548 years of life were added to children under-five years old from PEPFAR-assisted antiretroviral treatment.

Conclusions

Pediatric antiretroviral treatment in South Africa has increased substantially. However, additional case-finding and a further acceleration in the implementation of pediatric care and treatment services is required to meet the current treatment need.  相似文献   

8.
9.

Importance and Objective

Prior influenza infection is a risk factor for invasive meningococcal disease. Quantifying the fraction of meningococcal disease attributable to influenza could improve understanding of viral-bacterial interaction and indicate additional health benefits to influenza immunization.

Design, Setting and Participants

A time series analysis of the association of influenza and meningococcal disease using hospitalizations in 9 states from 1989–2009 included in the State Inpatient Databases from the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality and the proportion of positive influenza tests by subtype reported to the Centers for Disease Control. The model accounts for the autocorrelation of meningococcal disease and influenza between weeks, temporal trends, co-circulating respiratory syncytial virus, and seasonality. The influenza-subtype-attributable fraction was estimated using the model coefficients. We analyzed the synchrony of seasonal peaks in hospitalizations for influenza, respiratory syncytial virus, and meningococcal disease.

Results and Conclusions

In 19 of 20 seasons, influenza peaked≤2 weeks before meningococcal disease, and peaks were highly correlated in time (ρ = 0.95; P <.001). H3N2 and H1N1 peaks were highly synchronized with meningococcal disease while pandemic H1N1, B, and respiratory syncytial virus were not. Over 20 years, 12.8% (95% CI, 9.1–15.0) of meningococcal disease can be attributable to influenza in the preceding weeks with H3N2 accounting for 5.2% (95% CI, 3.0–6.5), H1N1 4.3% (95% CI, 2.6–5.6), B 3.0% (95% CI, 0.8–4.9) and pH1N1 0.2% (95% CI, 0–0.4). During the height of influenza season, weekly attributable fractions reach 59%. While vaccination against meningococcal disease is the most important prevention strategy, influenza vaccination could provide further protection, particularly in young children where the meningococcal disease vaccine is not recommended or protective against the most common serogroup.  相似文献   

10.
The Hantam-Tanqua-Roggeveld subregion is part of the Succulent Karoo hotspot of biodiversity which stretches along the southwestern side of South Africa and Namibia. Forty Whittaker plots were surveyed in the spring of 2005, in eight vegetation associations, to gather diversity data for the Hantam, Tanqua Karoo and Roggeveld areas. Seven plot sizes were used to construct species–area curves using three different models namely: the untransformed linear function, the power function and the exponential function. In general, the power and exponential functions produced a more significant fit to the data than the untransformed linear function. Linear regressions using environmental parameters indicated that altitude, mean annual precipitation and mean annual temperature were significant predictors of species richness at the 1, 10, 100 and 1000 m2 scales. To illustrate the variation in species–area curves and species richness across the landscape, a transect through the study area is discussed. The transect stretches eastwards from the Tanqua Karoo across the escarpment into the Roggeveld and crosses five different vegetation associations. Differences between associations were found in species richness in the 1000 m2 plots. Each association also produced species–area curves with their own characteristics. Slope values for the samples within an association did not differ significantly, although the intercept value often did. Comparisons between associations along the transect revealed significant differences in the slope value between the associations, except for the Dicerothamnus rhinocerotis Mountain Renosterveld which did not differ significantly from the associations bordering it on either side.  相似文献   

11.

Background

In Kenya, detailed data on the age-specific burden of influenza and RSV are essential to inform use of limited vaccination and treatment resources.

Methods

We analyzed surveillance data from August 2009 to July 2012 for hospitalized severe acute respiratory illness (SARI) and outpatient influenza-like illness (ILI) at two health facilities in western Kenya to estimate the burden of influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV). Incidence rates were estimated by dividing the number of cases with laboratory-confirmed virus infections by the mid-year population. Rates were adjusted for healthcare-seeking behavior, and to account for patients who met the SARI/ILI case definitions but were not tested.

Results

The average annual incidence of influenza-associated SARI hospitalization per 1,000 persons was 2.7 (95% CI 1.8–3.9) among children <5 years and 0.3 (95% CI 0.2–0.4) among persons ≥5 years; for RSV-associated SARI hospitalization, it was 5.2 (95% CI 4.0–6.8) among children <5 years and 0.1 (95% CI 0.0–0.2) among persons ≥5 years. The incidence of influenza-associated medically-attended ILI per 1,000 was 24.0 (95% CI 16.6–34.7) among children <5 years and 3.8 (95% CI 2.6–5.7) among persons ≥5 years. The incidence of RSV-associated medically-attended ILI was 24.6 (95% CI 17.0–35.4) among children <5 years and 0.8 (95% CI 0.3–1.9) among persons ≥5 years.

Conclusions

Influenza and RSV both exact an important burden in children. This highlights the possible value of influenza vaccines, and future RSV vaccines, for Kenyan children.  相似文献   

12.
13.

Background

Since 1995, measles vaccination at nine and 18 months has been routine in South Africa; however, coverage seldom reached >95%. We describe the epidemiology of laboratory-confirmed measles case-patients and assess the impact of the nationwide mass vaccination campaign during the 2009 to 2011 measles outbreak in South Africa.

Methods

Serum specimens collected from patients with suspected-measles were tested for measles-specific IgM antibodies using an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay and genotypes of a subset were determined. To estimate the impact of the nationwide mass vaccination campaign, we compared incidence in the seven months pre- (1 September 2009–11 April 2010) and seven months post-vaccination campaign (24 May 2010–31 December 2010) periods in seven provinces of South Africa.

Results

A total of 18,431 laboratory-confirmed measles case-patients were reported from all nine provinces of South Africa (cumulative incidence 37 per 100,000 population). The highest cumulative incidence per 100,000 population was in children aged <1 year (603), distributed as follows: <6 months (302/100,000), 6 to 8 months (1083/100,000) and 9 to 11 months (724/100,000). Forty eight percent of case-patients were ≥5 years (cumulative incidence 54/100,000). Cumulative incidence decreased with increasing age to 2/100,000 in persons ≥40 years. A single strain of measles virus (genotype B3) circulated throughout the outbreak. Prior to the vaccination campaign, cumulative incidence in the targeted vs. non-targeted age group was 5.9-fold higher, decreasing to 1.7 fold following the campaign (P<0.001) and an estimated 1,380 laboratory-confirmed measles case-patients were prevented.

Conclusion

We observed a reduction in measles incidence following the nationwide mass vaccination campaign even though it was conducted approximately one year after the outbreak started. A booster dose at school entry may be of value given the high incidence in persons >5 years.  相似文献   

14.
The life cycles of many marine and freshwater prawn species are closely associated with estuarine habitat. Here, the prawn community of the Mfolozi–Msunduzi estuarine system is described and the system's potential as an alternative nursery for prawns during prolonged closure of the adjacent St Lucia estuarine system is examined. Sampling was conducted at five localities in summer and winter in 2007–2012. The Mfolozi–Msunduzi Estuary is a river-dominated system with mouth condition, sediment grain size and turbidity being the most important factors affecting the structure of its prawn community. Twelve prawn species were recorded, including five marine penaeid and five freshwater palaemonid species. The prawn community was numerically dominated by freshwater Macrobrachium equidens and two penaeids, Fenneropenaeus indicus and Metapenaeus monoceros. Significant differences were recorded between summer and winter samples, with freshwater species dominating the catch in summer, while penaeid species were dominant in winter. The marked seasonal change in the prawn community was related to strong river flows during summer creating low-salinity conditions, unsuitable for penaeid postlarval development, throughout most of the system. Compared to St Lucia, the Mfolozi–Msunduzi Estuary can be regarded as a poor alternative nursery area for penaeids during the summer peak postlarval recruitment period.  相似文献   

15.

Background

In patients with HIV and tuberculosis (TB) in resource-constrained settings, smear-negative disease has been associated with higher mortality than smear-positive disease. Higher reported mortality may be due to misdiagnosis, diagnostic delays, or because smear-negative disease indicates more advanced immune suppression.

Methods

We analyzed culture-confirmed, pulmonary TB among patients with TB and HIV in the United States from 1993–2008 to calculate prevalence ratios (PRs) for smear-negative disease by demographic and clinical characteristics. Allowing two years for treatment outcome to be reported, we determined hazard ratios (HRs) for survival by smear status, adjusted for significant covariates on patients before 2006.

Results

Among 16,710 cases with sputum smear results, 6,739 (39%) were sputum smear-negative and 9,971 (58%) were sputum smear-positive. The prevalence of smear-negative disease was lower in male patients (PR: 0.89, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.86–0.93) and in those who were homeless (PR: 0.92, CI: 0.87–0.97) or used alcohol excessively (PR: 0.91, CI: 0.87–0.95), and higher in persons diagnosed while incarcerated (PR: 1.20, CI: 1.13–1.27). Patients with smear-negative disease had better survival compared to patients with smear-positive disease, both before (HR: 0.82, CI: 0.75–0.90) and after (HR: 0.81, CI: 0.71–0.92) the introduction of combination anti-retroviral therapy.

Conclusions

In the United States, smear-negative pulmonary TB in patients with HIV was not associated with higher mortality, in contrast to what has been documented in high TB burden settings. Smear-negative TB can be routinely and definitively diagnosed in the United States, whereas high-burden countries often rely solely on AFB-smear microscopy. This difference could contribute to diagnostic and treatment delays in high-burden countries, possibly resulting in higher mortality.  相似文献   

16.
People with sickle cell disease (SCD) suffer from numerous acute complications that can result in multiple hospitalizations and emergency department (ED) and outpatient care visits. Priapism, a prolonged unwanted erection of the penis not due to sexual stimulation, is a serious complication among males with SCD. Variations in estimates of prevalence make it difficult to accurately assess the burden of this complication of SCD. We analyzed data from the Nationwide Emergency Department Sample (NEDS), a product of the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project, for the years 2006 through 2010 to measure the numbers of ED visits and to examine patterns of subsequent hospitalizations associated with priapism among male patients with SCD. We find that among ED visits associated with males with SCD, those prompted by priapism are more likely to result in hospitalization than are those associated with pain.  相似文献   

17.
Traditional modes of investigating influenza nosocomial transmission have entailed a combination of confirmatory molecular diagnostic testing and epidemiological investigation. Common hospital-acquired infections like influenza require a discerning ability to distinguish between viral isolates to accurately identify patient transmission chains. We assessed whether influenza hemagglutinin sequence phylogenies can be used to enrich epidemiological data when investigating the extent of nosocomial transmission over a four-month period within a paediatric Hospital in Cape Town South Africa. Possible transmission chains/channels were initially determined through basic patient admission data combined with Maximum likelihood and time-scaled Bayesian phylogenetic analyses. These analyses suggested that most instances of potential hospital-acquired infections resulted from multiple introductions of Influenza A into the hospital, which included instances where virus hemagglutinin sequences were identical between different patients. Furthermore, a general inability to establish epidemiological transmission linkage of patients/viral isolates implied that identified isolates could have originated from asymptomatic hospital patients, visitors or hospital staff. In contrast, a traditional epidemiological investigation that used no viral phylogenetic analyses, based on patient co-admission into specific wards during a particular time-frame, suggested that multiple hospital acquired infection instances may have stemmed from a limited number of identifiable index viral isolates/patients. This traditional epidemiological analysis by itself could incorrectly suggest linkage between unrelated cases, underestimate the number of unique infections and may overlook the possible diffuse nature of hospital transmission, which was suggested by sequencing data to be caused by multiple unique introductions of influenza A isolates into individual hospital wards. We have demonstrated a functional role for viral sequence data in nosocomial transmission investigation through its ability to enrich traditional, non-molecular observational epidemiological investigation by teasing out possible transmission pathways and working toward more accurately enumerating the number of possible transmission events.  相似文献   

18.

Setting

National Tuberculosis Program, Department of Public Health, Ministry of Health, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA).

Objective

To summarize data on the incidence of tuberculosis and associated risk factors for cases reported during 2010–2011.

Design

Retrospective analysis of routinely collected data through an established national disease notification system of the Ministry of Health in KSA.

Results

The estimated incidence of all forms of tuberculosis fell from 15.8/100000 (95% CI: 15.3/100,000–16.3/100,000) in 2010 to 13.8/100,000 (95% CI: 13.4/100,000–14.2/100,000) in 2011. Saudis experienced a decrease from 11.8/100,000 (95% CI: 11.3/100,000 to 12.3/100,000) in 2010 to 9.9/100,000 (95% CI: 9.5/100,000–10.4/100,000) in 2011 while the incidence in non-Saudis declined from 24.7/100,000 (95% CI: 23.6/100,000 to 25.7/100,000) in 2010 to 22.5/100,000 (95% CI: 21.5/100,000 to 23.4/100,000) in 2011. The proportion of Extra Pulmonary TB (EPTB) which increased minimally from 30% in 2010 to 32% in 2011 was higher than global figures and strongly associated with age, sex, nationality and occupation.

Conclusion

The current estimated incidence of about 14/100,000 in 2011 is less than half its estimated value of 44/100000 in 1990. Without prejudice to any under-reporting, the KSA appeared to be on the course for TB elimination by 2050 having reached the first milestone set by WHO. The proportion of EPTB remains higher than global figure and age, sex, nationality and occupation were significant independent predictors of EPTB.  相似文献   

19.
The Caucasus, at the border of Europe and Asia, is important for migration and over-wintering of wild waterbirds. Three flyways, the Central Asian, East Africa-West Asia, and Mediterranean/Black Sea flyways, converge in the Caucasus region. Thus, the Caucasus region might act as a migratory bridge for influenza virus transmission when birds aggregate in high concentrations in the post-breeding, migrating and overwintering periods. Since August 2009, we have established a surveillance network for influenza viruses in wild birds, using five sample areas geographically spread throughout suitable habitats in both eastern and western Georgia. We took paired tracheal and cloacal swabs and fresh feces samples. We collected 8343 swabs from 76 species belonging to 17 families in 11 orders of birds, of which 84 were real-time RT-PCR positive for avian influenza virus (AIV). No highly pathogenic AIV (HPAIV) H5 or H7 viruses were detected. The overall AIV prevalence was 1.6%. We observed peak prevalence in large gulls during the autumn migration (5.3–9.8%), but peak prevalence in Black-headed Gulls in spring (4.2–13%). In ducks, we observed increased AIV prevalence during the autumn post-moult aggregations and migration stop-over period (6.3%) but at lower levels to those observed in other more northerly post-moult areas in Eurasia. We observed another prevalence peak in the overwintering period (0.14–5.9%). Serological and virological monitoring of a breeding colony of Armenian Gulls showed that adult birds were seropositive on arrival at the breeding colony, but juveniles remained serologically and virologically negative for AIV throughout their time on the breeding grounds, in contrast to gull AIV data from other geographic regions. We show that close phylogenetic relatives of viruses isolated in Georgia are sourced from a wide geographic area throughout Western and Central Eurasia, and from areas that are represented by multiple different flyways, likely linking different host sub-populations.  相似文献   

20.
BackgroundCancers of unknown primary (CUPs) are tumors found after metastasizing from unidentified primary sites; these tumors generally have unknown treatment strategies, expected treatment results, and prognosis. We assessed the epidemiological characteristics of CUPs in Korea.MethodsWe extracted records for 1999 through 2017 from the Korea Central Cancer Registry using the International Statistical Classification of Diseases and Related Health Problems (10th revision) codes for CUP as defined by the International Agency for Research on Cancer. Age-standardized rates and relative survival rates were calculated.ResultsThe CUPs constituted 2.1 % of the total number of cancer registrations in 1999, declining to 0.7 % in 2017. The incidence rate decreased for both sexes (5.35 to 2.20 for men, 3.15 to 1.77 for women). Patients aged 80 years and older had the highest incidence rate at 40.2, and 86.3 % of CUPs occurred in those 50 years of age or older. The cases of retroperitoneum and peritoneum sites increased over time. Cases diagnosed by microscopic methods and death certification only were 62.3 % and 7.9 %, respectively. The malignant neoplasm of the retroperitoneum and peritoneum and unknown primary site had the highest and lowest survival rates, respectively. The 5-year relative survival rate increased over time from 14.2 % (1999–2002) to 27.3 % (2013–2017).ConclusionsOur analysis of data from the Korea Central Cancer Registry found decreasing rates of CUP, although with consistent disparities by patient age and sex. Advancements in diagnostic technology may be decreasing the number of CUP diagnoses. Expanding the amount of information recorded in the registry may further improve diagnostic accuracy.  相似文献   

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