A perfect storm: the combined effects on population fluctuations of autocorrelated environmental noise, age structure, and density dependence

While it is widely appreciated that climate can affect the population dynamics of various species, a mechanistic understanding of how climate interacts with life-history traits to influence population fluctuations requires development. Here we build a general density-dependent age-structured model that accounts for differential responses in life-history traits to increasing population density. We show that as the temporal frequency of favorable environmental conditions increases, population fluctuations also increase provided that unfavorable environmental conditions still occur. As good years accumulate and the number of individuals in a population increases, successive life-history traits become vulnerable to density dependence once a return to unfavorable conditions prevails. The stronger this ratcheting of density dependence in life-history traits by autocorrelated climatic conditions, the larger the population fluctuations become. Highly fecund species, and those in which density dependence occurs in juvenile and adult vital rates at similar densities, are most sensitive to increases in the frequency of favorable conditions. Understanding the influence of global warming on temporal correlation in regional environmental conditions will be important in identifying those species liable to exhibit increased population fluctuations that could lead to their extinction.     

Plant population dynamics, pollinator foraging, and the selection of self-fertilization

Many flowering plants rely on pollinators, self-fertilization, or both for reproduction. We model the consequences of these features for plant population dynamics and mating system evolution. Our mating systems-based population dynamics model includes an Allee effect. This often leads to an extinction threshold, defined as a density below which population densities decrease. Reliance on generalist pollinators who primarily visit higher density plant species increases the extinction threshold, whereas autonomous modes of selfing decrease and can eliminate the threshold. Generalist pollinators visiting higher density plant species coupled with autonomous selfing may introduce an effect where populations decreasing in density below the extinction threshold may nonetheless persist through selfing. The extinction threshold and selfing at low density result in populations where individuals adopting a single reproductive strategy exhibit mating systems that depend on population density. The ecological and evolutionary analyses provide a mechanism where prior selfing evolves even though inbreeding depression is greater than one-half. Simultaneous consideration of ecological and evolutionary dynamics confirms unusual features (e.g., evolution into extinction or abrupt increases in population density) implicit in our separate consideration of ecological and evolutionary scenarios. Our analysis has consequences for understanding pollen limitation, reproductive assurance, and the evolution of mating systems.     

Models on butterfly protandry: Virgin females are at risk to die

Current models on protandry in butterflies assume that females are mated instantaneously upon eclosion. However, for most butterfly species this assumption is not realistic. In this paper a model is formulated in which the mating rate depends on both male and female density. Given the female presence curve, protandry is an evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) for males. The evolutionarily stable amount of protandry decreases with increasing death rate and decreasing encounter rate. Given the male presence curve, protandry also is an ESS for females. However, male and female ESS are not identical; moreover, in the present model a simultaneous ESS does not exist. Protandry critically depends on the assumption that females mate only once, whereas males are capable of multiple mating. If females too are capable of multiple mating, absence of protandry is the ESS for males as well as females. The model predicts that protandry depends on population density: protandry should be more pronounced in populations with high density than in populations with low density. Protandry also depends on sex ratio. It becomes more pronounced when the proportion of males among emerging adults increases.     

Explaining density-dependent regulation in earthworm populations using life-history analysis

At present there is little knowledge about how density regulates population growth rate and to what extent this is determined by life-history patterns. We compared density dependent population consequences in the Nicholsonian sense based on experimental observations and life-history modeling for the earthworms Lumbricus terrestris and Eisenia fetida . Both species differ in their life-histories, L. terrestris being a relatively long-lived species with slow reproduction and occurring at low densities compared to E. fetida which has a more opportunistic strategy with a high reproductive output. E. fetida is able to colonise new habitats rapidly and may occur at relatively high population densities. Density dependency of population growth rate was estimated by incorporating density dependent effects on reproduction and growth using a modified Euler equation. The results point out that E. fetida was not as strongly impacted by density as compared to L. terrestris . Population growth rate in E. fetida was hardly affected at low and moderate density, being reduced only at high level, this compares to L. terrestris where even relatively small density effects resulted in a strong negative effect on population growth rate. Our findings indicate that density-dependent regulation in earthworms can be quantified using life-history analysis. The outcomes are in agreement with empirical field observations for populations (i.e. L. terrestris occurs ar low density, E. fetida at high density). Consideration of the potential importance of Nicholsonian density dependence for field populations of these two species in light of their known biology however produces counterintuitive conclusions. In E. fetida , although density tolerant, rapid population growth may mean this species may be subject to density dependeny regulation. In L. terrestris , although density sensitive, complex behavioural ecology (surface activity, territoriality) may limit of feedback influence on population size.     

Weighing costs and benefits of mating in bushcrickets (Insecta: Orthoptera: Tettigoniidae), with an emphasis on nuptial gifts,protandry and mate density

ABSTRACT: Sexual selection is a major force driving evolution and is intertwined with ecological factors. Differential allocation of limited resources has a central role in the cost of reproduction. In this paper, I review the costs and benefits of mating in tettigoniids, focussing on nuptial gifts, their trade-off with male calling songs, protandry and how mate density influences mate choice. Tettigoniids have been widely used as model systems for studies of mating costs and benefits; they can provide useful general insights. The production and exchange of large nuptial gifts by males for mating is an important reproductive strategy in tettigoniids. As predicted by sexual selection theory spermatophylax size is condition dependent and is constrained by the need to invest in calling to attract mates also. Under some circumstances, females benefit directly from the nuptial gifts by an increase in reproductive output. However, compounds in the nuptial gift can also benefit the male by prolonging the period before the female remates. There is also a trade-off between adult male maturation and mating success. Where males mature before females (protandry) the level of protandry varies in the direction predicted by sperm competition theory; namely, early male maturation is correlated with a high level of first inseminations being reproductively successful. Lastly, mate density in bushcrickets is an important environmental factor influencing the behavioural decisions of individuals. Where mates are abundant, individuals are more choosey of mates; when they are scarce, individuals are less choosey. This review reinforces the view that tettigoniids provide excellent models to test and understand the economics of matings in both sexes.     

Mating structure and the cost of deleterious mutation: I. Postponing inbreeding

Mating structure governs the distribution of alleles in populations and thus the extent to which the phenotypes associated with the alleles are manifested. A mating system which initially achieves more genetic identity within individuals than between individuals enhances the probability that a finite population without reproductive excess will become extinct from a recessive lethal or semidominant lethal mutation; however, such a mating system decreases the number of deaths that will ensue if the population size is maintained by replacement of inviable progeny with individuals engendered from the entire mating pool. This is illustrated with Markov chain models for half-sib and double-first-cousin mating in populations of four individuals and by various techniques for analogous large populations. An appropriate choice of mating strategy can mitigate the effect of deleterious mutations, but the determination of which strategy is appropriate depends on how much reproductive excess is available and on the relative costs assigned to individual deaths and the extinction of a population.     

Flowering asynchrony and mating system effects on reproductive assurance and mutualism persistence in fragmented fig-fig wasp populations

? Premise of the study: Plants and animals may experience reproductive Allee effects in fragmented populations, and obligate pollination mutualisms may be especially sensitive to extinction risk via this density-dependent process. In this study we examine how a shift from within-crown reproductive synchrony to asynchrony influences reproductive assurance through contributions to selfing and outcrossing in small, spatially isolated populations of Ficus. ? Methods: The research focuses on the monoecious fig F. petiolaris and consists of phenological analyses and genetic assessments of selfing and outcrossing for populations located in Baja California's Sonoran Desert. ? Key results: Phenological censuses of eight populations revealed within-crown asynchrony in 44% of reproducing trees, with 16% having sufficient overlap of male and female flowering phases to permit selfing via the cycling of pollinating fig wasps within natal trees. In mating system analyses of two of these populations, however, multilocus outcrossing rates (t(m)) were indistinguishable from 1. This result, combined with low levels of inbreeding, indicates selfing to be absent or at best a minor contributor to reproductive assurance. ? Conclusions: The results indicate that the fitness benefits of within-crown asynchrony lie not with selfing, as commonly asserted, but with increased opportunities for outcross pollen transmission and receipt, changing our understanding of the mechanisms by which reproduction is facilitated and extinction risk minimized in naturally fragmented Ficus populations. Given the role of fig fruit as a keystone food resource in many tropical environments, trait variation leading to reproductive assurance in figs, such as within-crown asynchrony, has broader ecosystem-level implications.     

Variation in developmental time affects mating success and Allee effects

A fundamental question in biological conservation and invasion biology is why do some populations go extinct? Allee effects, notably those caused by mate location failure, are potentially key factors leading to the extinction of sparse populations. Several previous studies have focused on the inability of males and females to locate each other in space when populations are at low densities but here we investigate the effects of differences in the timing of male and female maturation on mating success. We develop a generalized model to clarify the role of protandry (the appearance of males before female emergence) and variability in adult maturation times. We show that temporal asynchrony can substantially reduce the probability of successful mating. We then apply this generalized model to estimate mating success in invading populations of the gypsy moth in North America in relation to local climate and its associated seasonality. Considerable geographic heterogeneity was observed in simulated mating success and this variability was not correlated with previous evaluations of bioclimatic requirements and habitat suitability. Furthermore, we found that the generalized model of temporal asynchrony provided reliable predictions and that detailed modeling of gypsy moth development was not necessary.     

Population demography of the endangered large blue butterfly <Emphasis Type="Italic">Maculinea arion</Emphasis> in Europe

Demographic parameters such as survival, sex ratio and abundance can profoundly affect the viability of populations and thus are of primary importance in species of conservation concern. Although numerous studies have been published on certain aspects of the ecology and evolution of the endangered Large Blue butterfly Maculinea arion, there is still a lack of detailed knowledge on its populations’ demography. Moreover, M. arion populates a variety of xerothermic habitats throughout its European range using various food plants and host ants, which leads to complications in its conservation. Our aim was to estimate demographic parameters of M. arion populations in different parts of its European range. Detailed mark-recapture sampling was conducted on populations in four different countries. We often found that daily apparent survival probability declined with increasing age of individuals, but there was no difference between male and female survival. In smaller populations, the sex ratio was rather female-biased. Our most interesting result was the lack of protandry in some populations that might be a consequence of selection against reproductive asynchrony in small populations or a polyandrous mating system. The perfect coincidence of male and female phenology can positively affect the effective population size, because the lack of reproductive asynchrony increases the chance of male–female encounters. Abundance of the studied populations ranged between 100 and 1,600 individuals, smaller populations were on the verge of extinction. Habitat of the threatened small populations was either overgrazed or abandoned, while habitat of larger, stable populations was lightly grazed.     

Reproductive asynchrony in natural butterfly populations and its consequences for female matelessness

1. Reproductive asynchrony, where individuals in a population are short-lived relative to the population-level reproductive period, has been identified recently as a theoretical mechanism of the Allee effect that could operate in diverse plant and insect species. The degree to which this effect impinges on the growth potential of natural populations is not yet well understood. 2. Building on previous models of reproductive timing, we develop a general framework that allows a detailed, quantitative examination of the reproductive potential lost to asynchrony in small natural populations. 3. Our framework includes a range of biologically plausible submodels that allow details of mating biology of different species to be incorporated into the basic reproductive timing model. 4. We tailor the parameter estimation methods of the full model (basic model plus mating biology submodels) to take full advantage of data from detailed field studies of two species of Parnassius butterflies whose mating status may be assessed easily in the field. 5. We demonstrate that for both species, a substantial portion of the female population (6.5-18.6%) is expected to die unmated. These analyses provide the first direct, quantitative evidence of female reproductive failure due to asynchrony in small natural populations, and suggest that reproductive asynchrony exerts a strong and largely unappreciated influence on the population dynamics of these butterflies and other species with similarly asynchronous reproductive phenology.     

Plastic reproductive allocation as a buffer against environmental stochasticity – linking life history and population dynamics to climate

Empirical work suggest that long‐lived organisms have adopted risk sensitive reproductive strategies where individuals trade the amount of resources spent on reproduction versus survival according to expected future environmental conditions. Earlier studies also suggest that climate affects population dynamics both directly by affecting population vital rates and indirectly through long‐term changes in individual life histories. Using a seasonal and state‐dependent individual‐based model we investigated how environmental variability affects the selection of reproductive strategies and their effect on population dynamics. We found that: (1) dynamic, i.e. plastic, reproductive strategies were optimal in a variable climate. (2) Females in poor and unpredictable climatic regimes allocated fewer available resources in reproduction and more in own somatic growth. This resulted in populations with low population densities, and a high average female age and body mass. (3) Strong negative density dependence on offspring body mass and survival, along with co‐variation between climatic severity and population density, resulted in no clear negative climatic effects on reproductive success and offspring body mass. (4) Time series analyses of population growth rates revealed that populations inhabiting benign environments showed the clearest response to climatic perturbations as high population density prohibited an effective buffering of adverse climatic effects as individuals were not able to gain sufficient body reserves during summer. Regularly occurring harsh winters ‘harvested’ populations, resulting in persistent low densities, and released them from negative density dependent effects, resulting in high rewards for a given resource allocation.     

Sex, sex-ratios, and the dynamics of pelagic copepod populations

I examine how the population biology of pelagic copepods depends on their mating biology using field data and a simple demographic model. Among calanoid copepods, two distinct patterns emerge. Firstly, copepods that lack seminal receptacle and require repeated mating to stay fertilized have near equal adult sex ratios in field populations. Winter population densities are orders of magnitude less than the critical population density required for population persistence, but populations survive winter seasons as resting eggs in the sediment. Population growth in these species is potentially high because they have on average a factor of 2 higher egg production rates than other pelagic copepods. Secondly, other copepods require only one mating to stay fertile, and populations of these species have strongly female-skewed adult sex-ratios in field populations. Resting eggs have not been described within this group. Winter population sizes are well predicted by the critical density required for population persistence which, in turn, is closely related to the body-size-dependent mate-search capacity. Thus, the different requirements for mating lead in the first case to a more opportunistic reproductive strategy that implies rapid colonization of the pelagic during productive seasons, and in the second case to a strategy that allows maintenance of a pelagic populations during unproductive seasons. Positive density dependent population growth during periods of low population density (‘Allee effect’) amplifies population density variation during winter into the subsequent summer, thus explaining why summer densities appear to depend more on winter densities than on current growth opportunities in pelagic copepods.     

Mating system structure and population density in a polygynous lizard, Sauromalus obesus (= ater)

Increases in population density often are associated with achange in mating system structure in numerous taxa. Typically,male interactions are minimal in extremely low density populations.As density increases, males exhibit territoriality but if densitybecomes too high, the energetic cost of defending a territorywill eventually outweigh the reproductive benefits associatedwith territoriality. Consequently, males in high density populationsmay abandon territoriality and adopt dominance polygyny, lekking behavior, or scramble competition. We investigated the relationshipbetween population density and mating system structure in threepopulations of the chuckwalla, Sauromalus obesus (= ater),near Phoenix, Arizona. Densities in the Phoenix Mountains (2.7chuckwallas/ha) were lower than any population previously studied.In the Santan Mountains (10.9 chuckwallas/ha), densities weresimilar to populations studied in the Mojave Desert, and inthe South Mountains (65 chuckwallas/ha), densities were the highest yet recorded. Male mating behavior was examined by determininghome range overlap and by making direct behavioral observations.Male home range size decreased with increasing population density.There was little overlap in home ranges among males in allthree populations, whereas home ranges of males and femalesconsistently overlapped, indicating that males were strictly territorial. This conclusion was supported by behavioral observationsof interactions among individuals in a natural setting. Thenumber of females wihin male territories was correlated withfood resources (plants) in all three populations. Female homerange size appeard to be related to food resources whereasmale home ranges appeared to be related to female distribution,population density, and geology. The retention of territoriality in spite of high population densities raises new questions aboutthe relationship between density and resource defense.     

Effect of resource gradient on age and size at maturity and their influence on early‐life fecundity in the predatory Asian lady beetle,Harmonia axyridis

Variation in food availability impacts the performance of insects in terms of their size and age to maturity and fecundity. Age at maturity determines how quickly individuals in a population can start to reproduce and how much they can reproduce. Results from studies on various insect species show that food availability influences the size and fecundity of adult females. It is predicted that under poor growth conditions, variation in size is low, but variation in age at maturity is considerable. This prediction was examined in a widely distributed lady beetle species, Harmonia axyridis (Pallas) (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae), a predator of aphids and coccids. Using a food gradient from low to high aphid prey density, performance of females that were reared on excess food was recorded for pre‐reproductive duration, size at reproductive maturity, number of aphids consumed, and fecundity in the first 10 days of their reproductive period. Results suggested that female H. axyridis that were reared on surplus food when kept at low prey density (poor growth condition) took, on average, three times longer to attain maturity and produced, on average, 14 times fewer eggs than females that were also reared on surplus food, but kept at high prey density (good growth condition). Females performed best at a prey density of 30 aphids per female per 150 cm². Results suggested that the current food availability significantly influenced the age and size of females at maturity and their fecundity. Age and size at maturity of female lady beetles showed non‐linear responses to prey density as well as the occurrence of a minimum size of females, below which H. axyridis females fail to mature. The steep slope recorded at lower prey densities suggests relatively high variation in age at maturity but low variation in size.     

Why do males emerge before females?

Summary In butterflies and many other insects there is a general tendency for males to emerge before females. This is known as protandry. In this paper we advance the hypothesis that protandry is a reproductive strategy of males, resulting from competition for mates, and should primarily occur in species maintaining female monogamy. Our hypothesis is corroborated by applying a mathematical treatment to a theoretical population with seven defined properties, all of which are argued to be reasonable assumptions for natural populations.     

Female mating success and risk of pre-reproductive death in a protandrous grasshopper

Numerous studies have assessed the adaptive value of protandry for males in several insect species, considering that male emergence is determined by female availability. However, the possible advantage of the time of emergence for females on their mating success in protandrous insect species has only been explored theoretically. By studying the grasshopper Sphenarium purpurascens we evaluated the hypothesis that late emergence could be adaptive for females. If female maturation occurs when the population density is higher and the sex ratio (males/females) is biased to males, their probability of mating increases. Thus, in this study we estimated (1) the opportunity for mating in females as a function of their sexual maturation time, population density, and sex ratio at the moment they reached sexual maturity. In addition, (2) an analysis incorporating female body size and the total number of female matings was performed. Both analyses support the occurrence of protandry in the studied population. Under the first approach, females with intermediate maturation time had a higher probability of being mated than earlier and late matured females. Thus, it suggests that stabilising selection is acting on female maturation time and this may affect selection on male maturation time. Furthermore, the proportion of mated females increased when the sex ratio was biased to males, and stabilising selection on maturation time was detected also. However, the number of matings of a female depended on her body size. Females with larger body size had more matings than smaller ones at the beginning of the reproductive season. Because selection acts differently on maturation time in males and females of S. purpurascens this result is consistent with a condition for the maintenance of protandry in the population. The present results are discussed in the light of the models for the evolution of protandry.     

The evolution of repeated mating under sexual conflict

In insects, repeated mating by females may have direct effects on female fecundity, fertility, and longevity. In addition, a female's remating rate affects her fitness through mortality costs of male harassment and ecological risks of mating such as predation. We analyse a model where these female fitness factors are put into their life-history context, and traded against each other, while accounting for limitations because of mate availability. We solve analytically for the condition when female multiple mating will evolve. We show that the probability that a female mates with a courting male decreases with increases in population density. The extent of conflict between the sexes thus automatically becomes larger at higher densities. However, because at higher densities females meet males at a higher rate, the resulting ESS female remating rate is independent of population density. The female remating probability is in conflict with male adaptations that increase male mating rate by persuading or forcing females to mate, and also in conflict with male adaptations for protecting the own sperm from being removed by future female mates. We show that the relative importance of these conflicts depends on population density.     

Accounting for wildlife life-history strategies when modeling stochastic density-dependent populations: A review

This article briefly reviews and provides discussion on the evidence for, and nature of, density-dependence patterns in r and K-selected species. In this review, I discuss how life-history strategies cause different nonlinear density-dependence patterns and I provide a simple modeling recommendation to incorporate nonlinear density dependence in population growth equations. Second, I discuss the importance of incorporation of environmental stochasticity and local extinction associated with nonlinear density dependence associated with life-history patterns through a novel modeling exercise. Last, I discuss the importance of considering how life-history nonlinear density dependence could affect optimal harvest yields. Though these topics are extensive, this review should spur wildlife biologists and managers to consider more inclusive population models that incorporate life-history strategies and stochasticity in their decision-making processes. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Seasonal plasticity in life history traits: growth and development in Polygonia c-album (Lepidoptera: Nymphalidae)

The potentially multivoltine comma butterfly, Polygonia c-album L., hibernates in the adult stage. The adult seasonal morph is demonstrated to be a good indicator of whether an individual has entered reproductive diapause or is developing directly to sexual maturation. This fact, and the assumption that a short development time is not equally important to all categories of individuals, was used to test predictions on variation in life-history traits among categories (morphs and sexes) and environments (temperature and photoperiod) at the level of individuals and to some extent families and populations (the univoltine Stockholm population and the partially bivoltine Oxford population). Individuals developing to adults in a short time were expected to be smaller and lighter as a result of a basic trade-off between the two traits. Development times varied in accordance with predictions, but in most cases this was due to plastic growth and development in both the larval and pupal stages rather than through variation in size or weight, i.e. size was a highly canalized trait. This suggests a relationship between plasticity and canalization and a strong potential for plasticity to shield life-history traits from selection. Individuals regulated development times also within developmental pathways, in response to photoperiods indicating the progression of the season. These and other results suggest that development times are not normally minimized in temperate butterflies unless this is enforced by direct development and protandry. There is thus scope for a high degree of adaptive plasticity in growth- and developmental rates which may devalue the basic trade-offs assumed by life-history theory and account for inconsistencies with its predictions.     

Synchronous dynamics and rates of extinction in spatially structured populations

We explore extinction rates using a spatially arranged set of subpopulations obeying Ricker dynamics. The population system is subjected to dispersal of individuals among the subpopulations as well as to local and global disturbances. We observe a tight positive correlation between global extinction rate and the level of synchrony in dynamics among thesubpopulations. Global disturbances and to a lesser extent, migration, are capable of synchronizing the temporal dynamics of the subpopulations over a rather wide span of the population growth rate r. Local noise decreases synchrony, as does increasing distance among the subpopulations. Synchrony also levels off with increasing r: in the chaotic region, subpopulations almost invariably behave asynchronously. We conclude that it is asynchrony that reduces the probability of global extinctions, not chaos as such: chaos is a special case only. The relationship between global extinction rate, synchronous dynamics and population growth rate is robust to changes in dispersal rates and ranges.