Predicting diabetic nephropathy using a multifactorial genetic model

Aims

The tendency to develop diabetic nephropathy is, in part, genetically determined, however this genetic risk is largely undefined. In this proof-of-concept study, we tested the hypothesis that combined analysis of multiple genetic variants can improve prediction.

Methods

Based on previous reports, we selected 27 SNPs in 15 genes from metabolic pathways involved in the pathogenesis of diabetic nephropathy and genotyped them in 1274 Ashkenazi or Sephardic Jewish patients with Type 1 or Type 2 diabetes of >10 years duration. A logistic regression model was built using a backward selection algorithm and SNPs nominally associated with nephropathy in our population. The model was validated by using random “training” (75%) and “test” (25%) subgroups of the original population and by applying the model to an independent dataset of 848 Ashkenazi patients.

Results

The logistic model based on 5 SNPs in 5 genes (HSPG2, NOS3, ADIPOR2, AGER, and CCL5) and 5 conventional variables (age, sex, ethnicity, diabetes type and duration), and allowing for all possible two-way interactions, predicted nephropathy in our initial population (C-statistic = 0.672) better than a model based on conventional variables only (C = 0.569). In the independent replication dataset, although the C-statistic of the genetic model decreased (0.576), it remained highly associated with diabetic nephropathy (χ² = 17.79, p<0.0001). In the replication dataset, the model based on conventional variables only was not associated with nephropathy (χ² = 3.2673, p = 0.07).

Conclusion

In this proof-of-concept study, we developed and validated a genetic model in the Ashkenazi/Sephardic population predicting nephropathy more effectively than a similarly constructed non-genetic model. Further testing is required to determine if this modeling approach, using an optimally selected panel of genetic markers, can provide clinically useful prediction and if generic models can be developed for use across multiple ethnic groups or if population-specific models are required.     

Predicting enzyme class from protein structure using Bayesian classification

Predicting enzyme class from protein structure parameters is a challenging problem in protein analysis. We developed a method to predict enzyme class that combines the strengths of statistical and data-mining methods. This method has a strong mathematical foundation and is simple to implement, achieving an accuracy of 45%. A comparison with the methods found in the literature designed to predict enzyme class showed that our method outperforms the existing methods.     

Predicting the asymmetric response of a genetic switch to noise

We present a simple analytical tool which gives an approximate insight into the stationary behavior of nonlinear systems undergoing the influence of a weak and rapid noise from one dominating source, e.g. the kinetic equations describing a genetic switch with the concentration of one substrate fluctuating around a constant mean. The proposed method allows for predicting the asymmetric response of the genetic switch to noise, arising from the noise-induced shift of stationary states. The method has been tested on an example model of the lac operon regulatory network: a reduced Yildirim-Mackey model with fluctuating extracellular lactose concentration. We calculate analytically the shift of the system's stationary states in the presence of noise. The results of the analytical calculation are in excellent agreement with the results of numerical simulation of the noisy system. The simulation results suggest that the structure of the kinetics of the underlying biochemical reactions protects the bistability of the lactose utilization mechanism from environmental fluctuations. We show that, in the consequence of the noise-induced shift of stationary states, the presence of fluctuations stabilizes the behavior of the system in a selective way: Although the extrinsic noise facilitates, to some extent, switching off the lactose metabolism, the same noise prevents it from switching on.     

Inferring connectivity of genetic regulatory networks using information-theoretic criteria

Recently, the concept of mutual information has been proposed for inferring the structure of genetic regulatory networks from gene expression profiling. After analyzing the limitations of mutual information in inferring the gene-to-gene interactions, this paper introduces the concept of conditional mutual information and based on it proposes two novel algorithms to infer the connectivity structure of genetic regulatory networks. One of the proposed algorithms exhibits a better accuracy while the other algorithm excels in simplicity and flexibility. By exploiting the mutual information and conditional mutual information, a practical metric is also proposed to assess the likeliness of direct connectivity between genes. This novel metric resolves a common limitation associated with the current inference algorithms, namely the situations where the gene connectivity is established in terms of the dichotomy of being either connected or disconnected. Based on the data sets generated by synthetic networks, the performance of the proposed algorithms is compared favorably relative to existing state-of-the-art schemes. The proposed algorithms are also applied on realistic biological measurements, such as the cutaneous melanoma data set, and biological meaningful results are inferred.     

Predicting the response to simultaneous selection: genetic architecture and physiological constraints

A great deal is known about the evolutionary significance of body size and development time. They are determined by the nonlinear interaction of three physiological traits: two hormonal events and growth rate (GR). In this study we investigate how the genetic architecture of the underlying three physiological traits affects the simultaneous response to selection on the two life-history traits in the hawkmoth Manduca sexta. The genetic architecture suggests that when the two life-history traits are both selected in the same direction (to increase or decrease) the response to selection is primarily determined by the hormonal mechanism. When the life-history traits are selected in opposite directions (one to increase and one to decrease) the response to selection is primarily determined by factors that affect the GR. To determine how the physiological traits affect the response to selection of the life-history traits, we simulated the predicted response to 10 generations of selection. A total of 83% of our predictions were supported by the simulation. The main components of this physiological framework also exist in unicellular organisms, vertebrates, and plants and can thus provide a robust framework for understanding how underlying physiology can determine the simultaneous evolution of life-history traits.     

Predicting decisions in human social interactions using real-time fMRI and pattern classification

Negotiation and trade typically require a mutual interaction while simultaneously resting in uncertainty which decision the partner ultimately will make at the end of the process. Assessing already during the negotiation in which direction one's counterpart tends would provide a tremendous advantage. Recently, neuroimaging techniques combined with multivariate pattern classification of the acquired data have made it possible to discriminate subjective states of mind on the basis of their neuronal activation signature. However, to enable an online-assessment of the participant's mind state both approaches need to be extended to a real-time technique. By combining real-time functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) and online pattern classification techniques, we show that it is possible to predict human behavior during social interaction before the interacting partner communicates a specific decision. Average accuracy reached approximately 70% when we predicted online the decisions of volunteers playing the ultimatum game, a well-known paradigm in economic game theory. Our results demonstrate the successful online analysis of complex emotional and cognitive states using real-time fMRI, which will enable a major breakthrough for social fMRI by providing information about mental states of partners already during the mutual interaction. Interestingly, an additional whole brain classification across subjects confirmed the online results: anterior insula, ventral striatum, and lateral orbitofrontal cortex, known to act in emotional self-regulation and reward processing for adjustment of behavior, appeared to be strong determinants of later overt behavior in the ultimatum game. Using whole brain classification we were also able to discriminate between brain processes related to subjective emotional and motivational states and brain processes related to the evaluation of objective financial incentives.     

Predicting predation through prey ontogeny using size-dependent functional response models

The functional response is a critical link between consumer and resource dynamics, describing how a consumer's feeding rate varies with prey density. Functional response models often assume homogenous prey size and size-independent feeding rates. However, variation in prey size due to ontogeny and competition is ubiquitous, and predation rates are often size dependent. Thus, functional responses that ignore prey size may not effectively predict predation rates through ontogeny or in heterogeneous populations. Here, we use short-term response-surface experiments and statistical modeling to develop and test prey size-dependent functional responses for water bugs and dragonfly larvae feeding on red-eyed treefrog tadpoles. We then extend these models through simulations to predict mortality through time for growing prey. Both conventional and size-dependent functional response models predicted average overall mortality in short-term mixed-cohort experiments, but only the size-dependent models accurately captured how mortality was spread across sizes. As a result, simulations that extrapolated these results through prey ontogeny showed that differences in size-specific mortality are compounded as prey grow, causing predictions from conventional and size-dependent functional response models to diverge dramatically through time. Our results highlight the importance of incorporating prey size when modeling consumer-prey dynamics in size-structured, growing prey populations.     

Inferring gene regulatory networks with time delays using a genetic algorithm

Recently a state-space model with time delays for inferring gene regulatory networks was proposed. It was assumed that each regulation between two internal state variables had multiple time delays. This assumption caused underestimation of the model with many current gene expression datasets. In biological reality, one regulatory relationship may have just a single time delay, and not multiple time delays. This study employs Boolean variables to capture the existence of the time-delayed regulatory relationships in gene regulatory networks in terms of the state-space model. As the solution space of time delayed relationships is too large for an exhaustive search, a genetic algorithm (GA) is proposed to determine the optimal Boolean variables (the optimal time-delayed regulatory relationships). Coupled with the proposed GA, Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and probabilistic principle component analysis (PPCA) are employed to infer gene regulatory networks with time delays. Computational experiments are performed on two real gene expression datasets. The results show that the GA is effective at finding time-delayed regulatory relationships. Moreover, the inferred gene regulatory networks with time delays from the datasets improve the prediction accuracy and possess more of the expected properties of a real network, compared to a gene regulatory network without time delays.     

Adapting genetic regulatory models by genetic programming

In this paper, we focus on the task of adapting genetic regulatory models based on gene expression data from microarrays. Our approach aims at automatic revision of qualitative regulatory models to improve their fit to expression data. We describe a type of regulatory model designed for this purpose, a method for predicting the quality of such models, and a method for adapting the models by means of genetic programming. We also report experimental results highlighting the ability of the methods to infer models on a number of artificial data sets. In closing, we contrast our results with those of alternative methods, after which we give some suggestions for future work.     

A proposal for using the ensemble approach to understand genetic regulatory networks

Understanding the genetic regulatory network comprising genes, RNA, proteins and the network connections and dynamical control rules among them, is a major task of contemporary systems biology. I focus here on the use of the ensemble approach to find one or more well-defined ensembles of model networks whose statistical features match those of real cells and organisms. Such ensembles should help explain and predict features of real cells and organisms. More precisely, an ensemble of model networks is defined by constraints on the "wiring diagram" of regulatory interactions, and the "rules" governing the dynamical behavior of regulated components of the network. The ensemble consists of all networks consistent with those constraints. Here I discuss ensembles of random Boolean networks, scale free Boolean networks, "medusa" Boolean networks, continuous variable networks, and others. For each ensemble, M statistical features, such as the size distribution of avalanches in gene activity changes unleashed by transiently altering the activity of a single gene, the distribution in distances between gene activities on different cell types, and others, are measured. This creates an M-dimensional space, where each ensemble corresponds to a cluster of points or distributions. Using current and future experimental techniques, such as gene arrays, these M properties are to be measured for real cells and organisms, again yielding a cluster of points or distributions in the M-dimensional space. The procedure then finds ensembles close to those of real cells and organisms, and hill climbs to attempt to match the observed M features. Thus obtains one or more ensembles that should predict and explain many features of the regulatory networks in cells and organisms.     

Gene selection for classification of cancers using probabilistic model building genetic algorithm

Recently, DNA microarray-based gene expression profiles have been used to correlate the clinical behavior of cancers with the differential gene expression levels in cancerous and normal tissues. To this end, after selection of some predictive genes based on signal-to-noise (S2N) ratio, unsupervised learning like clustering and supervised learning like k-nearest neighbor (k NN) classifier are widely used. Instead of S2N ratio, adaptive searches like Probabilistic Model Building Genetic Algorithm (PMBGA) can be applied for selection of a smaller size gene subset that would classify patient samples more accurately. In this paper, we propose a new PMBGA-based method for identification of informative genes from microarray data. By applying our proposed method to classification of three microarray data sets of binary and multi-type tumors, we demonstrate that the gene subsets selected with our technique yield better classification accuracy.     

Predicting long-term response to selection

Lande's equation for predicting the response of trait means to a shift in optimal trait values is tested using a stochastic simulation model. The simulated population is finite, and each individual has a finite number of loci. Therefore, selection may cause allele frequencies and distributions to change over time. Since the equation assumes constant genetic parameters, the degree to which such allelic changes affect predictions can be examined. Predictions are based only on information available at generation zero of directional selection. The quality of the predictions depends on the nature of allelic distributions in the original population. If allelic effects are approximately normally distributed, as assumed in Lande's Gaussian approximation to the continuum-of-alleles model, the predictions are very accurate, despite small changes in the G matrix. If allelic effects have a leptokurtic distribution, as is likely in Turelli's 'house-of-cards' approximation, the equation underestimates the rate of response and correlated response, and overestimates the time required for the trait means to reach their equilibrium values. Models with biallelic loci have limits as to the amount of trait divergence possible, since only two allelic values are available at each of a finite set of loci. If the new optimal trait values lie within these limits, predictions are good, if not, singularity in the G matrix results in suboptimal equilibria, despite the presence of genetic variance for each individual trait.     

Transient dynamics of genetic regulatory networks

We present an approximation scheme for deriving reaction rate equations of genetic regulatory networks. This scheme predicts the timescales of transient dynamics of such networks more accurately than does standard quasi-steady state analysis by introducing prefactors to the ODEs that govern the dynamics of the protein concentrations. These prefactors render the ODE systems slower than their quasi-steady state approximation counterparts. We introduce the method by examining a positive feedback gene regulatory network, and show how the transient dynamics of this network are more accurately modeled when the prefactor is included. Next, we examine the repressilator, a genetic oscillator, and show that the period, amplitude, and bifurcation diagram defining the onset of the oscillations are better estimated by the prefactor method. Finally, we examine the consequences of the method to the dynamics of reduced models of the phage lambda switch, and show that the switching times between the two states is slowed by the presence of the prefactor that arises from protein multimerization and DNA binding.