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1.
This study examined the effect of meteorological factors on the occurrence of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS) using a generalized additive model with penalized smoothing splines in Jiaonan, China, from 2006 to 2011. The dose–response relationship was first examined, and then the association between daily meteorological variables and HFRS occurrence was investigated according to the dose–response curves. There were two linear segments in the temperature–HFRS relationship curve. When daily temperature was lower than 17 °C, a positive association was found [with excessive risk (ER) for 1 °C increase on the current day being 2.56 %, 95 % confidence interval (CI): 0.36 % to 4.80 %]. An inverse association was found when daily temperature was higher than 17 °C [ER for 1 °C increase on the current day was ?12.82 % (95 % CI: ?17.51 % to ?7.85 %)]. Inverse associations were observed for relative humidity [ER for 1 % increase on lag day 4 was ?1.21 % (95 % CI: ?1.63 % to ?0.79 %)] and rainfall [ER for 1 mm increase on lag day 1 was ?2.20 % (95 % CI: ?3.56 % to ?0.82 %)]. Meteorological factors might be important predictor of HFRS epidemics in Jiaonan County.  相似文献   

2.
The Toronto–Windsor corridor of Southern Ontario, Canada, experiences hot and humid weather conditions in summer, thus exposing the population to heat stress and a greater risk of mortality. In the event of a climate change, heat-stress conditions may become more frequent and severe in Southern Ontario. To assess the impact of summer weather on health, we analyzed heat-related mortality in the elderly (older than 64 years) in the metropolitan areas of Windsor, London, Kitchener-Waterloo-Cambridge, Hamilton, and Toronto for a 17-year period. Demographic, socioeconomic, and housing factors were also evaluated to assess their effect on the potential of the population to adapt and their vulnerability to heat stress. Heat-stress days were defined as those with an apparent temperature (heat index) above 32°C. Mortality among the elderly was significantly higher on heat-stress days than on non-heat-stress days in all cities except Windsor. The strongest relationships occurred in Toronto and London, followed by Hamilton. Cities with the greatest heat-related mortality have relatively high levels of urbanization and high costs of living. Even without the warming induced by a climate change, (1) vulnerability is likely to increase as the population ages, and (2) ongoing urban development and sprawl are expected to intensify heat-stress conditions in Southern Ontario. Actions should be taken to reduce vulnerability to heat stress conditions, and to develop a comprehensive hot weather watch/warning system for the region. Received: 9 August 1999 / Revised: 9 March 2000 / Accepted: 1 May 2000  相似文献   

3.
The Phoenix Islands (Republic of Kiribati, 172–170°W and 2.5–5°S) experience intra- and inter-annual sea surface temperature variability of ≈2°C and have few local anthropogenic impacts. From July 2002, a thermal stress event occurred, which peaked at 21 Degree Heating Weeks (DHW) in January 2003 and persisted for 4 years. Such thermal stress was greater than any thermal event reported in the coral reef literature. Reef surveys were conducted in July 2000, June 2002, and May 2005, for six of the eight islands. Sampling was stratified by exposure (windward, leeward, and lagoon) and depth (5, 10, 15, and 25 m). The thermal stress event caused mass coral mortality, and coral cover declined by approximately 60% between 2002 and 2005. However, mortality varied among sites (12–100%) and among islands (42–79%) and varied in accordance with the presence of a lagoon, island size, and windward vs. leeward exposure. Leeward reefs experienced the highest and most consistent decline in coral cover. Island size and the presence of a lagoon showed positive correlations with coral mortality, most likely because of the longer water residence time enhancing heating. Windward reefs showed cooler conditions than leeward reefs. Recently dead corals were observed at depths >35 m on windward and >45 m on leeward reefs. Between-island variation in temperature had no effect on between-island variation in coral mortality. Mortality levels reported here were comparable to those reported for the most extreme thermal stress events of 9–10 DHW in other regions. These results highlight the high degree of acclimation and/or adaptation of the corals in the Phoenix Islands to their local temperature regime, and their consequent vulnerability to anomalous events. Moreover, the results suggest the need to adjust thermal stress calculations to reflect local temperature variation.  相似文献   

4.
Hunting regulations for grizzly bears (Ursus arctos) in much of Alaska since 1980 increasingly were designed to reduce bear abundance in the expectation such regulations would lead to increased harvests by hunters of moose (Alces alces) and caribou (Rangifer tarandus). Regulations were liberalized during 1980–2010 primarily in the area we termed the Liberal Grizzly Bear Hunting Area (hereafter Liberal Hunt Area) which encompassed 76.2% of Alaska. By 2010, these changes resulted in longer hunting seasons (100% of Liberal Hunt Area had seasons > 100 days, 99.7% > 200 days, and 67.8% > 300 days), more liberal bag limits (99.1% of the Liberal Hunt Area with a bag limit ≥ 1/yr and 10.1% with a bag limit ≥ 2/yr), and widespread waiver of resident tag fees (waived in 95.7% of the Liberal Hunt Area). During 1995–2010, there were 124 changes that made grizzly bear hunting regulations more liberal and two making them more conservative. The 4-year mean for grizzly bear kills by hunters increased 213% between 1976–1980 (387 grizzly bears) and 2005–2008 (823 grizzly bears). Since 2000, long-term research studies on grizzly populations in the Liberal Hunt Area have been terminated without replacement. Management of large predators by the State of Alaska is constrained by a 1994 state statute mandating “intensive management” in areas classified as important for human consumptive use of ungulates. Current grizzly bear management in the Liberal Hunt Area is inconsistent with the recommendations of the National Research Council's 1997 report on predator management in Alaska. Current attitudes, policies and absence of science-based management of grizzly bears in Alaska are increasingly similar to those that resulted in the near extirpation of grizzly bears south of Canada in the 19th and 20th centuries. If current trends continue, they increase risks to portions of the largest and most intact population of grizzly bears in North America. © 2011 The Wildlife Society.  相似文献   

5.
The temperature–mortality relationship follows a well-known J-V shaped pattern with mortality excesses recorded at cold and hot temperatures, and minimum at some optimal value, referred as Minimum Mortality Temperature (MMT). As the MMT, which is used to measure the population heat-tolerance, is higher for people living in warmer places, it has been argued that populations will adapt to temperature changes. We tested this notion by taking advantage of a huge migratory flow that occurred in Italy during the 1950s, when a large number of unemployed people moved from the southern to the industrializing north-western regions. We have analyzed mortality–temperature relationships in Milan residents, split by groups identified by area of birth. In order to obtain estimates of the temperature-related risks, log-linear models have been used to fit daily death count data as a function of different explanatory variables. Results suggest that mortality risks differ by birthplace, regardless of the place of residence, namely heat tolerance in adult life could be modulated by outdoor temperature experienced early in life. This indicates that no complete adaptation might occur with rising external environmental temperatures.  相似文献   

6.
Background: The causes of renal cell cancer (RCC) remain largely unexplained. While the incidence is generally higher in men than in women, little has been reported on ethnic differences. We examine trends in RCC incidence and mortality rates among Israeli Arab and Jewish populations and compared with the rates in other countries. Methods: Age-adjusted RCC incidence and mortality rates in Israel, during 1980–2004, were calculated by sex and population group, using the National Cancer Registry. They were compared with the United States based on the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results [SEER] program and the IARC database for international comparisons. Results: While RCC incidence rates in Israel are similar to the United States and the European average, the rates are significantly higher among Israeli Jews than Arabs. Men are affected more than women. Incidence rates over the last 24 years have increased among all men and Jewish women, but not among Arab women. Among men, the incidence rate ratio for Jews to Arabs declined from 3.96 in 1980–1982 to 2.34 in 2001–2004, whereas for women there was no change. The mortality rates were higher among Jews than Arab and among men than women. There were no significant change in the mortality rates and rate ratios. Conclusions: Our findings demonstrate marked ethnic differences in RCC in Israel. The lower incidence among Arabs stands in contrast to the higher prevalence of potential risk factors for RCC in this population group. Genetic factors, diet and other lifestyle factors could play protective roles.  相似文献   

7.
Schistosomiasis is an important public health problem, with high morbidity and mortality in endemic countries. We analysed the epidemiological characteristics and time trends of schistosomiasis-related mortality in Brazil. We performed a nationwide study based on official mortality data obtained from the Brazilian Mortality Information System. We included all deaths in Brazil between 2000 and 2011, in which schistosomiasis was mentioned on the death certificate as an underlying or associated cause of death (multiple causes of death). We calculated crude and age-adjusted mortality rates (per 100,000 inhabitants), and proportional mortality rates. Trends over time were assessed using joinpoint regression models. Over the 12-year study period, 12,491,280 deaths were recorded in Brazil. Schistosomiasis was mentioned in 8,756 deaths, including in 6,319 (72.2%) as an underlying cause and in 2,437 (27.8%) as an associated cause. The average annual age-adjusted mortality rate was 0.49 deaths/100,000 inhabitants (95% confidence interval: 0.46–0.52) and proportional mortality rate was 0.070% (95% confidence interval: 0.069–0.072). Males (0.53 deaths/100,000 inhabitants), those aged ⩾70 years (3.41 deaths/100,000 inhabitants), those of brown race/colour (0.44 deaths/100,000 inhabitants), and residents in the Northeast region of Brazil (1.19 deaths/100,000 inhabitants) had the highest schistosomiasis-related death rates. Age-adjusted mortality rates showed a significant decrease at a national level (Annual Percent Change: −2.8%; 95% confidence interval: −4.2 to −2.4) during the studied period. We observed decreasing mortality rates in the Northeast (Annual Percent Change: −2.5%; 95% confidence interval: −4.2 to −0.8), Southeast (Annual Percent Change: −2.2%; 95% confidence interval: −3.6 to −0.9), and Central-West (Annual Percent Change: −7.9%; 95% confidence interval: −11.3 to −4.3) regions, while the rates remained stable in the North and South regions. Despite the reduced mortality, schistosomiasis is still a neglected cause of death in Brazil, with considerable regional differences. Sustainable control measures should focus on increased coverage, and intensified and tailored control measures, to prevent the occurrence of severe forms of schistosomiasis and associated deaths.  相似文献   

8.
 This research investigates heat-related mortality during the 1980 and 1995 heat waves in St. Louis, Missouri. St. Louis has a long history of extreme summer weather, and heat-related mortality is a public health concern. Heat waves are defined as days with apparent temperatures exceeding 40.6°C (105°F). The study uses a multivariate analysis to investigate the relationship between mortality and heat wave intensity, duration, and timing within the summer season. The heat wave of 1980 was more severe and had higher associated mortality than that of 1995. To learn if changing population characteristics, in addition to weather conditions, contributed to this difference, changes in population vulnerability between 1980 and 1995 are evaluated under simulated heat wave conditions. The findings show that St. Louis remains at risk of heat wave mortality. In addition, there is evidence that vulnerability has increased despite increased air-conditioning penetration and public health interventions. Received: 12 August 1997 / Revised: 12 January 1998 / Accepted: 13 February 1998  相似文献   

9.
The mortality from measles was studied in an urban area of Guinea-Bissau one year before and five years after the introduction of a vaccination programme. The years after the introduction of immunisation saw a decline in mortality among unvaccinated children with measles. This decline occurred despite a lower age at infection and an increasing prevalence of malnourished children. State of nutrition (weight for age) did not affect the outcome of measles infection. The incidence of isolated cases, however, increased in the period after the introduction of measles vaccination. As mortality was lower among these cases, diminished clustering explained some of the reduction in mortality. Comparison between the urban district and a rural area inhabited by the same ethnic group showed a lower age at infection, less clustering of cases, and lower case fatality ratios in the urban area.Endemic transmission of measles in urban districts leads to less clustering of cases, which may help explain the usually lower case fatality ratios in these areas. As measles vaccination increases herd immunity and diminishes clustering of cases, it may reduce mortality even among unvaccinated children who contract the disease.  相似文献   

10.
The relation between cholesterol concentration and mortality was studied prospectively over 17 years in 630 New Zealand Maoris aged 25-74. The dead or alive state of each person was determined in 1981. The causes of death were divided into three categories: cancer, cardiovascular disease, and "other." Using univariate and both linear and non-linear multivariate methods of analysis for survivorship data, significant inverse relations with serum cholesterol were found for total mortality in women, for mortality from cancer in men and women, and for other causes of mortality in both men and women. The inverse and non-linear association with total mortality in women remained significant when deaths in the first five years of follow up were excluded. This suggests that the association was not explained by undetected illness causing low cholesterol concentrations at the time of initial examination.  相似文献   

11.
Flowering dates and the timing of late season frost are both driven by local ambient temperatures. However, under climatic warming observed over the past century, it remains uncertain how such impacts affect frost risk associated with plant phenophase shifts. Any increase in frost frequency or severity has the potential to damage flowers and their resultant yields and, in more extreme cases, the survival of the plant. An accurate assessment of the relationship between the timing of last frost events and phenological shifts associated with warmer climate is thus imperative. We investigate spring advances in citrus flowering dates (orange, tangerine, sweet lemon, sour lemon and sour orange) for Kerman and Shiraz, Iran from 1960 to 2010. These cities have experienced increases in both T max and T min, advances in peak flowering dates and changes in last frost dates over the study period. Based on daily instrumental climate records, the last frost dates for each year are compared with the peak flowering dates. For both cities, the rate of last frost advance lags behind the phenological advance, thus increasing frost risk. Increased frost risk will likely have considerable direct impacts on crop yields and on the associated capacity to adapt, given future climatic uncertainty.  相似文献   

12.
Kreuzer and coworkers recently reported no association between cumulative exposure to radiation and death from cardiovascular disease in a cohort of German uranium miners. Here, we report on the relationship between cumulative exposure to radon progeny and coronary heart disease among Newfoundland fluorspar miners. Previous analyses in this cohort found elevated death rates from coronary heart disease among those with higher cumulative radon exposure. However, this finding was based on a relatively small number of deaths and was not statistically significant. Since then, the follow-up of this cohort has been extended by 10 years until the end of 2001. Among the 2,070 miners in our study, 267 died from coronary heart disease. There was no trend evident between cumulative exposure to radon and the relative risk of death from coronary heart disease (P = 0.63). This finding was unchanged after adjusting for the lifetime smoking status that was available for approximately 54% of the cohort. Similarly, the cumulative radon exposure was found to be unrelated to deaths of the circulatory system, acute myocardial infarction, and cerebrovascular disease. These findings are consistent with those recently reported by Kreuzer and colleagues. We share their view that uncontrolled confounding for other coronary heart disease risk factors hinders the interpretation of the risk estimates.  相似文献   

13.
We tested the hypothesis that single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) within genes of the NF-κB pathway are associated with altered clinical outcome of septic shock patients. We genotyped 59 SNPs in the NF-κB pathway in a discovery cohort of septic shock patients (St. Paul's Hospital [SPH], N = 589), which identified the C allele of rs7222094 T/C within MAP3K14 (NF-κB inducing kinase; NIK) associated with increased 28-d mortality (uncorrected p = 0.00024, Bonferroni corrected p = 0.014). This result was replicated in a second cohort of septic shock patients (Vasopressin and Septic Shock Trial [VASST; N = 616]) in which the CC genotype of rs7222094 was associated with increased 28-d mortality (Cox regression: SPH cohort hazard ratio [HR], 1.35; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.12-1.64; p = 0.002 Caucasian only; and VASST cohort HR, 1.24; 95% CI, 1.00-1.52; p = 0.048 Caucasian only). Patients having the CC genotype of rs7222094 in SPH experienced more renal and hematological dysfunction (p = 0.003 and p = 0.011), while patients of the VASST cohort with the rs7222094 CC genotype showed the same trend toward more renal dysfunction. In lymphoblastoid cell lines, we found the rs7222094 genotype most strongly associated with mRNA expression of CXCL10, a chemokine regulated by NF-κB. Accordingly, we measured CXCL10 protein levels and found that the CC genotype of rs7222094 was associated with significantly lower levels than those of the TT genotype in lymphoblastoid cell lines (p < 0.05) and in septic shock patients (p = 0.017). This suggests that the CC genotype of NIK rs7222094 is associated with increased mortality and organ dysfunction in septic shock patients, perhaps due to altered regulation of NF-κB pathway genes, including CXCL10.  相似文献   

14.
Abstract

From information on mortality of Jews obtained from individual death certificates and population data from surveys of the Jewish population undertaken in 1963 and 1987, age‐specific death rates and life expectancy of the Jewish population of Rhode Island are compared with those of the total white population for 1963 and 1987 to assess changing differentials. The Jewish mortality experience continues to differ from that of the larger population even while both groups have experienced noticeable improvements. For males, the age standardized rates have widened in favor of Jews as have the life expectancies at birth and the percentage surviving to old age. By contrast, for females, the standardized death rate has widened considerably in favor of whites, while life expectancy has improved almost identically for both groups and therefore remained about equal, as it was in 1963. Reasons for these patterns are explored through attention to differences between Jews and the general white population in death rates at particular stages of the life cycle. Jews tend to be more advantaged at all but the most advanced ages, age groups in which proportionally more of the Jewish population and Jewish deaths are concentrated.  相似文献   

15.
The aim of this study was to investigate the effect of an organic cannabis extract on β-cell secretory function in an in vivo diet-induced obese rat model and determine the associated molecular changes within pancreatic tissue. Diet-induced obese Wistar rats and rats fed on standard pellets were subcutaneously injected with an organic cannabis extract or the vehicle over a 28-day period. The effect of diet and treatment was evaluated using the intraperitoneal glucose tolerance tests (IPGTTs) and qPCR analysis on rat pancreata harvested upon termination of the experiment. The cafeteria diet induced an average weight difference of 32g and an overall increase in body weight in the experimental groups occurred at a significantly slower rate than the control groups, irrespective of diet. Area under the curve for glucose (AUC(g)) in the obese group was significantly lower compared to the lean group (p<0.001), with cannabis treatment significantly reducing the AUC(g) in the lean group (p<0.05), and remained unchanged in the obese group, relative to the obese control group. qPCR analysis showed that the cafeteria diet induced down-regulation of the following genes in the obese control group, relative to lean controls: UCP2, c-MYC and FLIP. Cannabis treatment in the obese group resulted in up-regulation of CB1, GLUT2, UCP2 and PKB, relative to the obese control group, while c-MYC levels were down-regulated, relative to the lean control group. Treatment did not significantly change gene expression in the lean group. These results suggest that the cannabis extract protects pancreatic islets against the negative effects of obesity.  相似文献   

16.
Climate change and alien species have affected the vegetation of subantarctic islands. Long-term monitoring of vegetation change on the steep coastal slopes of subantarctic Macquarie Island has allowed responses of plant species to various disturbance regimes to be well documented, although, until recently, the confounding effect of feral herbivore disturbance obscured any responses that might be attributed to climate change. The uncoupling of climate change from variation in feral rabbit numbers allowed us to test whether any plant species were increasing or decreasing on the coastal slopes of the island between 1980 and 2009, independent of rabbit grazing pressure. We used analysis of variance to test for differences in species cover classes between four measurement times on each of 101 quadrats in each of 1980/1981, 1995, 2003 and 2009. We had 54 quadrats on landslips and 47 elsewhere. Approximately two-thirds of the species with significant temporal change exhibited changes that could be expected from variation in rabbit grazing pressure. However, approximately one-third of the species increased in cover irrespective of grazing pressure. On landslips, variation in the cover of these increaser species was largely related to time in a linear mixed model, whereas elsewhere altitude and time were both important. The increase in both atmospheric dryness and episodic soil water-logging that has been described for the island since 1980 may best explain the increaser species.  相似文献   

17.

Objectives

: We aim to estimate the prevalence of influenza-like illness (ILI) by occupation and to identify occupations associated with increased ILI prevalence.

Methods

Between September 2009 and August 2010, the Centers for Disease Control (CDC) included questions on ILI symptoms on the Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System (BRFSS). Washington State collects the occupation of all employed BRFSS respondents. ILI prevalence and prevalence ratios (PR) were calculated by occupational group.

Results

There were 8,758 adult, currently employed, non-military respondents to the Washington BRFSS during the study period. The ILI prevalence for all employed respondents was 6.8% (95% Confidence Interval (95% CI) = 6.1, 7.6). PRs indicated a lower prevalence of ILI in Technicians (PR = 0.4, 95% CI = 0.2, 0.9) and Truck Drivers (PR = 0.2, 95% CI = 0.1, 0.7) and higher prevalence in Janitors and Cleaners (PR = 2.5, 95% CI = 1.3, 4.7) and Secretaries (PR = 2.4, 95% CI = 1.1, 5.4).

Conclusions

Some occupations appear to have higher prevalence of ILI than others. These occupational differences may be explained, in part, by differing levels of social contact with the public or contact with contaminated surfaces at work, or by other occupational factors such as stress or access to health care resources.  相似文献   

18.
Objective: Area–age–period–cohort (AAPC) model has been widely used in studying the spatial and temporal pattern of disease incidence and mortality rates. However, lack of biological plausibility and ease of interpretability on temporal components especially for age effects are generally the weakness of AAPC models. We develop a Bayesian AAPC model where carcinogenesis age effect is incorporated to explain age effects from the underlying disease process. An autoregressive prior structure and an arbitrary linear constraint are used to solve the nonidentifiability issues. Methods: Two multistage carcinogenesis models are employed to derive the hazard functions to substitute the age effects in the AAPC models. The Iowa county-wide lung cancer mortality data are used for the model fitting and Deviance Information Criteria (DIC) is used for model comparison. Results: Our study shows that conventional AAPC model (DIC = 19,231.30), AAPC model with Armitage–Doll age effect (DIC = 19,233.00) and with two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) age effect (DIC = 19,234.70) achieved the similar DIC values which indicated consistent model fitting among three models. The spatial pattern shows that the high spatial effects are clustered in the south of Iowa and also in largely populated areas. The lung cancer mortality rate is continuously declining by birth cohorts while increasing by the calendar period until 2000–2004. The age effects show an increasing pattern over time which can be easily explained by Armitage–Doll carcinogenesis model since we assume a log-linear relationship between age and hazard function. Conclusions: Our finding suggests that the proposed Bayesian AAPC model can be used to replace the conventional AAPC model without affecting model performance while providing a more biological sound approach from the underlining disease process.  相似文献   

19.
In patients with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) abnormal myocardial blood flow (MBF) has been associated with coronary microvascular dysfunction. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that osteopontin (OPN) plasma levels could be associated with the activation of the renin–aldosterone system (RAS) in these patients and be involved in mediating myocardial and coronary damage. In 66 patients with idiopathic left ventricular dysfunction of variable severity the plasma levels of OPN were correlated with biomarkers of systemic metabolism, RAS activation, myocardial dysfunction and with clinical indexes of left ventricle (LV) function and perfusion obtained by 2D-echocardiography and PET. As compared to controls, patients showed a significant increase of inflammatory markers (OPN: 508 ± 30.8 ng/ml vs. 426.9 ± 16.4, p < 0.05 and interleukin (IL)-6: 1.71 ± 0.29 pg/ml vs. 0.38 ± 0.03 pg/ml, p < 0.001) and of indexes of cardiac damage. OPN levels were significantly correlated with the extent of microvascular dysfunction (MBF at rest: p = 0.01; during dipyridamole: p = 0.0003) and with plasma renin activity (PRA) (r = 0.26, p = 0.04). Both in patients with milder or more severe LV dysfunction lower MBF values were associated with higher OPN levels and PRA. These results suggest a interdependent role of RAS and vascular inflammation in cardiomyopathy.  相似文献   

20.
V. D. Savitsky  V. N. Kobzar 《Grana》2013,52(5):314-318
Aerobiological investigations of the last ten years in the former USSR emphasised, preferentially the following problems: content of pollen in the air, pollen transport, and impact of pollen on the health of the human. Pollen grains which cause various allergic diseases have been the main object of extensive aerobiological studies. Ado and his collaborators have made valuable contributions to Aerobiology in the former USSR (Ado 1978, 1980, 1989, 1990; Ado & Gubankova, 1979 a, b). Their investigations confirmed the existence of a correlation between the number of allergic patients and the concentration of pollen grains in the atmosphere, and some peculiarities of the allergic diseases prevalent in towns.

Later, aerobiology was elaborated by the investigations of Kobzar (1987), Kobzar & Kharitonova (1990), Kobzar et al. (1990, 1991), etc. The possibility of airborne pollen grains as indicators of environmental contamination and pollution levels was demonstrated. Various data show the periods during which pollen grains are present in atmosphere, their peaks and the levels of concentration which are able to cause allergies in the territory of the former USSR.  相似文献   

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