Which cropland greenhouse gas mitigation options give the greatest benefits in different world regions? Climate and soil‐specific predictions from integrated empirical models

Major sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural crop production are nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions resulting from the application of mineral and organic fertilizer, and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from soil carbon losses. Consequently, choice of fertilizer type, optimizing fertilizer application rates and timing, reducing microbial denitrification and improving soil carbon management are focus areas for mitigation. We have integrated separate models derived from global data on fertilizer‐induced soil N₂O emissions, soil nitrification inhibitors, and the effects of tillage and soil inputs of soil C stocks into a single model to determine optimal mitigation options as a function of soil type, climate, and fertilization rates. After Monte Carlo sampling of input variables, we aggregated the outputs according to climate, soil and fertilizer factors to consider the benefits of several possible emissions mitigation strategies, and identified the most beneficial option for each factor class on a per‐hectare basis. The optimal mitigation for each soil‐climate‐region was then mapped to propose geographically specific optimal GHG mitigation strategies for crops with varying N requirements. The use of empirical models reduces the requirements for validation (as they are calibrated on globally or continentally observed phenomena). However, as they are relatively simple in structure, they may not be applicable for accurate site‐specific prediction of GHG emissions. The value of this modelling approach is for initial screening and ranking of potential agricultural mitigation options and to explore the potential impact of regional agricultural GHG abatement policies. Given the clear association between management practice and crop productivity, it is essential to incorporate characterization of the yield effect on a given crop before recommending any mitigation practice.     

Carbon emission and sequestration by agricultural land use: a model study for Europe

A model was developed to calculate carbon fluxes from agricultural soils. The model includes the effects of crop (species, yield and rotation), climate (temperature, rainfall and evapotranspiration) and soil (carbon content and water retention capacity) on the carbon budget of agricultural land. The changes in quality of crop residues and organic material as a result of changes in CO₂ concentration and changed management were not considered in this model. The model was parameterized for several arable crops and grassland. Data from agricultural, meteorological, soil, and land use databases were input to the model, and the model was used to evaluate the effects of different carbon dioxide mitigation measures on soil organic carbon in agricultural areas in Europe. Average carbon fluxes under the business as usual scenario in the 2008–2012 commitment period were estimated at 0.52 tC ha^?1 y^?1 in grassland and ?0.84 tC ha^?1 y^?1 in arable land. Conversion of arable land to grassland yielded a flux of 1.44 tC ha^?1 y^?1. Farm management related activities aiming at carbon sequestration ranged from 0.15 tC ha^?1 y^?1 for the incorporating of straw to 1.50 tC ha^?1 y^?1 for the application of farmyard manure. Reduced tillage yields a positive flux of 0.25 tC ha^?1 y^?1. The indirect effect associated with climate was an order of magnitude lower. A temperature rise of 1 °C resulted in a ?0.05 tC ha^?1 y^?1 change whereas the rising CO₂ concentrations gave a 0.01 tC ha^?1 y^?1 change. Estimates are rendered on a 0.5 × 0.5° grid for the commitment period 2008–2012. The study reveals considerable regional differences in the effectiveness of carbon dioxide abatement measures, resulting from the interaction between crop, soil and climate. Besides, there are substantial differences between the spatial patterns of carbon fluxes that result from different measures.     

稻田秸秆还田:土壤固碳与甲烷增排

基于我国农田土壤有机质长期定位试验和稻田甲烷排放试验成果,将全国稻田划分为单季区和双季区.根据土壤有机质试验数据,分析了秸秆还田在我国两个稻田区的单季稻田、水旱轮作稻田和双季稻田的固碳潜力.同时根据我国稻田甲烷排放试验数据,采用取平均排放系数的方法,估算了我国稻田在无秸秆还田情况下的甲烷排放总量;结合IPCC推荐的方法和参数,估算了我国稻田秸秆还田后甲烷排放总量及增排甲烷的全球增温潜势.结果表明:在中国稻田推广秸秆还田的固碳潜力为10.48TgC.a-1,对减缓全球变暖的贡献为38.43TgCO2-eqv.a-1;但秸秆还田后稻田甲烷排放将从无秸秆还田的5.796Tg.a-1增加到9.114Tg.a-1;秸秆还田引起甲烷增排3.318Tg.a-1,其全球增温潜势达82.95TgCO2-eqv.a-1,为土壤固碳减排潜力的2.158倍.可见,推广秸秆还田后,中国稻田增排甲烷的温室效应会大幅抵消土壤固碳的减排效益,是一项重要的温室气体泄漏.     

Management options for reducing CO2 emissions from agricultural soils

Crop-based agriculture occupies 1.7 billion hectares, globally, with a soil C stock of about 170 Pg. Of the past anthropogenic CO² additions to the atmosphere, about 50 Pg C came from the loss of soil organic matter (SOM) in cultivated soils. Improved management practices, however, can rebuild C stocks in agricultural soils and help mitigate CO² emissions.Increasing soil C stocks requires increasing C inputs and/or reducing soil heterotrophic respiration. Management options that contribute to reduced soil respiration include reduced tillage practices (especially no-till) and increased cropping intensity. Physical disturbance associated with intensive soil tillage increases the turnover of soil aggregates and accelerates the decomposition of aggregate-associated SOM. No-till increases aggregate stability and promotes the formation of recalcitrant SOM fractions within stabilized micro- and macroaggregate structures. Experiments using¹³ C natural abundance show up to a two-fold increase in mean residence time of SOM under no-till vs intensive tillage. Greater cropping intensity, i.e., by reducing the frequency of bare fallow in crop rotations and increasing the use of perennial vegetation, can increase water and nutrient use efficiency by plants, thereby increasing C inputs to soil and reducing organic matter decomposition rates.Management and policies to sequester C in soils need to consider that: soils have a finite capacity to store C, gains in soil C can be reversed if proper management is not maintained, and fossil fuel inputs for different management practices need to be factored into a total agricultural CO² balance.     

Uncertainty in estimating land use and management impacts on soil organic carbon storage for US agricultural lands between 1982 and 1997

Uncertainty was quantified for an inventory estimating change in soil organic carbon (SOC) storage resulting from modifications in land use and management across US agricultural lands between 1982 and 1997. This inventory was conducted using a modified version of a carbon (C) accounting method developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Probability density functions (PDFs) were derived for each input to the IPCC model, including reference SOC stocks, land use/management activity data, and management factors. Change in C storage was estimated using a Monte‐Carlo approach with 50 000 iterations, by randomly selecting values from the PDFs after accounting for dependencies in the model inputs. Over the inventory period, mineral soils had a net gain of 10.8 Tg C yr^?1, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 6.5 to 15.3 Tg C yr^?1. Most of this gain was due to setting‐aside lands in the Conservation Reserve Program. In contrast, managed organic soils lost 9.4 Tg C yr^?1, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from 6.4 to 13.3 Tg C yr^?1. Combining these gains and losses in SOC, US agricultural soils accrued 1.3 Tg C yr^?1 due to land use and management change, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from a loss of 4.4 Tg C yr^?1 to a gain of 6.9 Tg C yr^?1. Most of the uncertainty was attributed to management factors for tillage, land use change between cultivated and uncultivated conditions, and C loss rates from managed organic soils. Based on the uncertainty, we are not able to conclude with 95% confidence that change in US agricultural land use and management between 1982 and 1997 created a net C sink for atmospheric CO₂.     

An estimate of greenhouse gas (N2O and CO2) mitigation potential under various scenarios of nitrogen use efficiency in Chinese croplands

It is well recognized that improving nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) can directly reduce nitrous oxide (N₂O) emission in cropland and indirectly reduce carbon dioxide (CO₂) release from nitrogen (N) production, while such a reduction has not been well quantified in China. We estimated the greenhouse gas (GHG; N₂O and CO₂) mitigation potential (MP) from Chinese cropland and its regional distribution by quantifying NUE and determining the amount of over‐applied synthetic N under various scenarios of NUE. We estimated that synthetic NUE in the late 1990s was 31±11% (mean±SD) for rice, 33±13% for wheat, and 31±11% for maize cultivation. Improving NUE to 50% could cut 6.6 Tg of synthetic N use per year, accounting for 41% of the total used. As a result of this reduction, the direct N₂O emission from croplands together with CO₂ emission from the industrial production and transport of synthetic N could be reduced by 39%, equivalent to 60 Tg CO₂ yr^?1. The MP was probably underestimated because organic N supply was not taken into account when estimating NUE. It was concluded that improving N management can greatly reduce GHG (N₂O and CO₂) emissions in Chinese croplands, and mitigation in the Jiangsu, Henan, Shandong, Sichuan, Hubei, Anhui, and Hebei provinces should be given priority.     

Marshland conversion to cropland in northeast China from 1950 to 2000 reduced the greenhouse effect

It has been well recognized that converting wetlands to cropland results in loss of soil organic carbon (SOC), while less attention was paid to concomitant changes in methane (CH₄) and nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions. Using datasets from the literature and field measurements, we investigated loss of SOC and emissions of CH₄ and N₂O due to marshland conversion in northeast China. Analysis of the documented crop cultivation area indicated that 2.91 Mha of marshland were converted to cropland over the period 1950–2000. Marshland conversion resulted in SOC loss of ～240 Tg and introduced ～1.4 Tg CH₄ and ～138 Gg N₂O emissions in the cropland, while CH₄ emissions reduced greatly in the marshland, cumulatively ～28 Tg over the 50 years. Taking into account the loss of SOC and emissions of CH₄ and N₂O, the global warming potential (GWP) at a 20‐year time horizon was estimated to be ～180 Tg CO₂_eq. yr^?1 in the 1950s and ～120 Tg CO₂_eq. yr^?1 in the 1990s, with a ～33% reduction. When calculated at 100‐year time horizon, the GWP was ～73 Tg CO₂ _eq. yr^?1 in the 1950s and ～58 Tg CO₂_eq. yr^?1 in the 1990s, with a ～21% reduction. It was concluded that marshland conversion to cropland in northeast China reduced the greenhouse effect as far as GWP is concerned. This reduction was attributed to a substantial decrease in CH₄ emissions from the marshland. An extended inference is that the declining growth rate of atmospheric CH₄ since the 1980s might be related to global loss of wetlands, but this connection needs to be confirmed.     

Meeting Europe's climate change commitments: quantitative estimates of the potential for carbon mitigation by agriculture

Under the Kyoto Protocol, the European Union is committed to a reduction in CO₂ emissions to 92% of baseline (1990) levels during the first commitment period (2008–2012). The Kyoto Protocol allows carbon emissions to be offset by demonstrable removal of carbon from the atmosphere. Thus, land‐use/land‐management change and forestry activities that are shown to reduce atmospheric CO₂ levels can be included in the Kyoto targets. These activities include afforestation, reforestation and deforestation (article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol) and the improved management of agricultural soils (article 3.4). In this paper, we estimate the carbon mitigation potential of various agricultural land‐management strategies and examine the consequences of European policy options on carbon mitigation potential, by examining combinations of changes in agricultural land‐use/land‐management. We show that no single land‐management change in isolation can mitigate all of the carbon needed to meet Europe's climate change commitments, but integrated combinations of land‐management strategies show considerable potential for carbon mitigation. Three of the combined scenarios, one of which is an optimal realistic scenario, are by themselves able to meet Europe's emission limitation or reduction commitments. Through combined land‐management scenarios, we show that the most important resource for carbon mitigation in agriculture is the surplus arable land. We conclude that in order to fully exploit the potential of arable land for carbon mitigation, policies will need to be implemented to allow surplus arable land to be put into alternative long‐term land‐use. Of all options examined, bioenergy crops show the greatest potential for carbon mitigation. Bioenergy crop production also shows an indefinite mitigation potential compared to other options where the mitigation potential is finite. We suggest that in order to exploit fully the bioenergy option, the infrastructure for bioenergy production needs to be significantly enhanced before the beginning of the first Kyoto commitment period in 2008. It is not expected that Europe will attempt to meet its climate change commitments solely through changes in agricultural land‐use. A reduction in CO₂‐carbon emissions will be key to meeting Europe's Kyoto targets, and forestry activities (Kyoto Article 3.3) will play a major role. In this study, however, we demonstrate the considerable potential of changes in agricultural land‐use and ‐management (Kyoto Article 3.4) for carbon mitigation and highlight the policies needed to promote these agricultural activities. As all sources of carbon mitigation will be important in meeting Europe's climate change commitments, agricultural carbon mitigation options should be taken very seriously.     

桓台县冬小麦和夏玉米秸秆长期还田的生态效益分析

山东省桓台县作为江北第一个\"吨粮县\",1980年以来农业集约化得到了快速发展。随着燃料需求的减少以及畜牧养殖与作物生产的分离,作物秸秆处理已日益成为当地农民和技术人员面临的巨大挑战。该地区冬小麦和夏玉米秸秆从1980年开始,还田比例逐步增加,到2010年两季秸秆接近全部还田。我们查阅年鉴数据,结合长期定位试验,收集相关数据计算和分析桓台地区1980—2014年期间的作物和秸秆产量、秸秆养分含量、土壤养分及有机碳状况、温室气体排放和氮淋溶等,并对秸秆还田的农田生态效应进行系统评估。研究发现,到2014年,两季秸秆还田对N、P、K养分的贡献率(即还田秸秆养分量与还田秸秆和肥料养分总量的比值)分别为19.3%、15.8%和59.8%。随着秸秆还田量的增加,土壤有机碳(SOC,0—20 cm)含量从(7.8±1.6)g/kg(1980年)增加到(11.0±2.3)g/kg(2014年),土壤碱解氮、速效磷和速效钾分别提高了134.0%、138.5%和62.2%。秸秆还田可以降低农田氮素损失,2010年代全县县域内减少温室气体排放量为24528 Mg CO₂-eq a     

土地利用对崇明岛围垦区土壤有机碳库和土壤呼吸的影响

土地利用方式是影响农业土壤碳固持和温室气体减排的关键因子之一,而准确地评价土地利用变化的影响往往因土壤本底的不均一和土地利用历史多变而复杂化。为此,在崇明东滩湿地围垦区选取了本底均匀、利用历史简单的几种土地利用类型(水-旱轮作农田、人工林、鱼塘撂荒地),研究其土壤有机碳库和土壤呼吸的变化及其与土壤环境间的关系,以期评价其各自的固碳和温室气体减排潜力。农田土壤的表层(20cm)有机碳和微生物生物量碳含量最高,分别为12.62g/kg和225.34mg/kg,包括苗圃栾树林、水杉林带以及桔园在内的人工林地次之,鱼塘撂荒地最低;但撂荒地深层土壤(40—100cm)的有机碳含量高于其它类型,反映了围垦前湿地土壤有机碳累积的残留影响。土壤呼吸强度的顺序则为鱼塘撂荒地农田桔园苗圃栾树林水杉林带。农耕地在前作小麦收割种植水稻后,土壤CO2通量显著下降,不及旱作时的10%。除农田和撂荒地以外,土壤表层5 cm深处温度可以很好地解释土壤呼吸速率的变化,但在高温高湿季节呼吸速率较为离散。研究表明:在有机质含量较低的土壤中,水-旱轮作可增加土壤有机碳的储量;受人类活动干扰较小的林地土壤,有机碳含量反而有可能低于农田土壤。在中国南方湿润亚热带地区,水旱轮作可较好地协调农业土壤的碳固持和释放过程的矛盾,可能具有相当大的农业减排潜力。