Meeting Europe's climate change commitments: quantitative estimates of the potential for carbon mitigation by agriculture

Under the Kyoto Protocol, the European Union is committed to a reduction in CO₂ emissions to 92% of baseline (1990) levels during the first commitment period (2008–2012). The Kyoto Protocol allows carbon emissions to be offset by demonstrable removal of carbon from the atmosphere. Thus, land‐use/land‐management change and forestry activities that are shown to reduce atmospheric CO₂ levels can be included in the Kyoto targets. These activities include afforestation, reforestation and deforestation (article 3.3 of the Kyoto Protocol) and the improved management of agricultural soils (article 3.4). In this paper, we estimate the carbon mitigation potential of various agricultural land‐management strategies and examine the consequences of European policy options on carbon mitigation potential, by examining combinations of changes in agricultural land‐use/land‐management. We show that no single land‐management change in isolation can mitigate all of the carbon needed to meet Europe's climate change commitments, but integrated combinations of land‐management strategies show considerable potential for carbon mitigation. Three of the combined scenarios, one of which is an optimal realistic scenario, are by themselves able to meet Europe's emission limitation or reduction commitments. Through combined land‐management scenarios, we show that the most important resource for carbon mitigation in agriculture is the surplus arable land. We conclude that in order to fully exploit the potential of arable land for carbon mitigation, policies will need to be implemented to allow surplus arable land to be put into alternative long‐term land‐use. Of all options examined, bioenergy crops show the greatest potential for carbon mitigation. Bioenergy crop production also shows an indefinite mitigation potential compared to other options where the mitigation potential is finite. We suggest that in order to exploit fully the bioenergy option, the infrastructure for bioenergy production needs to be significantly enhanced before the beginning of the first Kyoto commitment period in 2008. It is not expected that Europe will attempt to meet its climate change commitments solely through changes in agricultural land‐use. A reduction in CO₂‐carbon emissions will be key to meeting Europe's Kyoto targets, and forestry activities (Kyoto Article 3.3) will play a major role. In this study, however, we demonstrate the considerable potential of changes in agricultural land‐use and ‐management (Kyoto Article 3.4) for carbon mitigation and highlight the policies needed to promote these agricultural activities. As all sources of carbon mitigation will be important in meeting Europe's climate change commitments, agricultural carbon mitigation options should be taken very seriously.     

森林伐后碳减排核算方法演进与展望

森林生态系统的碳汇功能对我国完成“双碳目标”具有独特意义,其中森林伐后碳减排,包括木质林产品全生命周期内的碳储和替代减排,是增强林业中长期碳减排能力的重要路径。当前我国森林伐后碳减排研究尚落后于欧美等发达国家,不利于我国林业国家碳库模型的构建以及更好地指导固碳增汇的森林管理策略。系统回顾了近30余年国内外学术界关于森林伐后碳减排方法学的演进动态,总结了碳循环和碳减排模型的核心参数,为推进我国森林伐后碳减排研究提供理论基础。学术界近30余年涉及方法模型的主要成果如下：(1)建立并完善了立足于木材采伐国的生产法和简单分解法,以及立足于终端木质林产品消费国的储量变化法和大气流动法两类方法框架;(2)形成了体系化的碳储计算模型,并在包括发达国家和主要发展中国家取得了大量实测数据和参数积累;(3)初步完成了替代减排分析模型和基于情景设定的分析框架,并在以欧美国家为主体的部分地区进行了应用。在梳理历史文献的基础上,本研究认为当前存在的方法缺陷包括：第一,既有依靠实测调研获取数据的成本过高,限制了研究国家的深度和广度,尤其导致广大发展中国家研究较为薄弱;第二,当前方法框架在追踪木质林产品贸易流方面较...     

Livestock greenhouse gas emissions and mitigation potential in Europe

The livestock sector contributes considerably to global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG). Here, for the year 2007 we examined GHG emissions in the EU27 livestock sector and estimated GHG emissions from production and consumption of livestock products; including imports, exports and wastage. We also reviewed available mitigation options and estimated their potential. The focus of this review is on the beef and dairy sector since these contribute 60% of all livestock production emissions. Particular attention is paid to the role of land use and land use change (LULUC) and carbon sequestration in grasslands. GHG emissions of all livestock products amount to between 630 and 863 Mt CO₂e, or 12–17% of total EU27 GHG emissions in 2007. The highest emissions aside from production, originate from LULUC, followed by emissions from wasted food. The total GHG mitigation potential from the livestock sector in Europe is between 101 and 377 Mt CO₂e equivalent to between 12 and 61% of total EU27 livestock sector emissions in 2007. A reduction in food waste and consumption of livestock products linked with reduced production, are the most effective mitigation options, and if encouraged, would also deliver environmental and human health benefits. Production of beef and dairy on grassland, as opposed to intensive grain fed production, can be associated with a reduction in GHG emissions depending on actual LULUC emissions. This could be promoted on rough grazing land where appropriate.     

An estimate of greenhouse gas (N2O and CO2) mitigation potential under various scenarios of nitrogen use efficiency in Chinese croplands

It is well recognized that improving nitrogen use efficiency (NUE) can directly reduce nitrous oxide (N₂O) emission in cropland and indirectly reduce carbon dioxide (CO₂) release from nitrogen (N) production, while such a reduction has not been well quantified in China. We estimated the greenhouse gas (GHG; N₂O and CO₂) mitigation potential (MP) from Chinese cropland and its regional distribution by quantifying NUE and determining the amount of over‐applied synthetic N under various scenarios of NUE. We estimated that synthetic NUE in the late 1990s was 31±11% (mean±SD) for rice, 33±13% for wheat, and 31±11% for maize cultivation. Improving NUE to 50% could cut 6.6 Tg of synthetic N use per year, accounting for 41% of the total used. As a result of this reduction, the direct N₂O emission from croplands together with CO₂ emission from the industrial production and transport of synthetic N could be reduced by 39%, equivalent to 60 Tg CO₂ yr^?1. The MP was probably underestimated because organic N supply was not taken into account when estimating NUE. It was concluded that improving N management can greatly reduce GHG (N₂O and CO₂) emissions in Chinese croplands, and mitigation in the Jiangsu, Henan, Shandong, Sichuan, Hubei, Anhui, and Hebei provinces should be given priority.     

Greenhouse gas mitigation potential in crop production with biochar soil amendment—a carbon footprint assessment for cross‐site field experiments from China

Biochar soil amendment (BSA) had been advocated as a promising approach to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in agriculture. However, the net GHG mitigation potential of BSA remained unquantified with regard to the manufacturing process and field application. Carbon footprint (CF) was employed to assess the mitigating potential of BSA by estimating all the direct and indirect GHG emissions in the full life cycles of crop production including production and field application of biochar. Data were obtained from 7 sites (4 sites for paddy rice production and 3 sites for maize production) under a single BSA at 20 t/ha^?1 across mainland China. Considering soil organic carbon (SOC) sequestration and GHG emission reduction from syngas recycling, BSA reduced the CFs by 20.37–41.29 t carbon dioxide equivalent ha^?1 (CO₂‐eq ha^?1) and 28.58–39.49 t CO₂‐eq ha^?1 for paddy rice and maize production, respectively, compared to no biochar application. Without considering SOC sequestration and syngas recycling, the net CF change by BSA was in a range of ?25.06 to 9.82 t CO₂‐eq ha^?1 and ?20.07 to 5.95 t CO₂‐eq ha^?1 for paddy rice and maize production, respectively, over no biochar application. As the largest contributors among the others, syngas recycling in the process of biochar manufacture contributed by 47% to total CF reductions under BSA for rice cultivation while SOC sequestration contributed by 57% for maize cultivation. There was a large variability of the CF reductions across the studied sites whether in paddy rice or maize production, due likely to the difference in GHG emission reductions and SOC increments under BSA across the sites. This study emphasized that SOC sequestration should be taken into account the CF calculation of BSA. Improved biochar manufacturing technique could achieve a remarkable carbon sink by recycling the biogas for traditional fossil‐fuel replacement.     

Large climate mitigation potential from adding trees to agricultural lands

While improved management of agricultural landscapes is promoted as a promising natural climate solution, available estimates of the mitigation potential are based on coarse assessments of both agricultural extent and aboveground carbon density. Here we combine 30 meter resolution global maps of aboveground woody carbon, tree cover, and cropland extent, as well as a 1 km resolution map of global pasture land, to estimate the current and potential carbon storage of trees in nonforested portions of agricultural lands. We find that global croplands currently store 3.07 Pg of carbon (C) in aboveground woody biomass (i.e., trees) and pasture lands account for an additional 3.86 Pg C across a combined 3.76 billion ha. We then estimate the climate mitigation potential of multiple scenarios of integration and avoided loss of trees in crop and pasture lands based on region‐specific biomass distributions. We evaluate our findings in the context of nationally determined contributions and find that the majority of potential carbon storage from integration and avoided loss of trees in crop and pasture lands is in countries that do not identify agroforestry as a climate mitigation technique.     

Carbon sequestration potential in European croplands has been overestimated

Yearly, per‐area carbon sequestration rates are used to estimate mitigation potentials by comparing types and areas of land management in 1990 and 2000 and projected to 2010, for the European Union (EU)‐15 and for four country‐level case studies for which data are available: UK, Sweden, Belgium and Finland. Because cropland area is decreasing in these countries (except for Belgium), and in most European countries there are no incentives in place to encourage soil carbon sequestration, carbon sequestration between 1990 and 2000 was small or negative in the EU‐15 and all case study countries. Belgium has a slightly higher estimate for carbon sequestration than the other countries examined. This is at odds with previous reports of decreasing soil organic carbon stocks in Flanders. For all countries except Belgium, carbon sequestration is predicted to be negligible or negative by 2010, based on extrapolated trends, and is small even in Belgium. The only trend in agriculture that may be enhancing carbon stocks on croplands at present is organic farming, and the magnitude of this effect is highly uncertain. Previous studies have focused on the potential for carbon sequestration and have shown quite significant potential. This study, which examines the sequestration likely to occur by 2010, suggests that the potential will not be realized. Without incentives for carbon sequestration in the future, cropland carbon sequestration under Article 3.4 of the Kyoto Protocol will not be an option in EU‐15.     

Woody biochar's greenhouse gas mitigation potential across fertilized and unfertilized agricultural soils and soil moisture regimes

Biochar has been widely researched as an important technology for climate smart agriculture, yet work is still necessary to identify the magnitude of potential greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation and mechanisms involved. This study measured slow‐pyrolysis wood‐derived biochar's impact on GHG efflux, mineral N dynamics, and soil organic C in a series of two incubations across fertilized and unfertilized agricultural soils and soil moisture regimes. This research explored the magnitude of biochar's full GHG mitigation potential and drivers of such impacts. Results of this incubation indicate slow‐pyrolysis wood‐derived biochar has potential to provide annual emission reductions of 0.58–1.72 Mg CO₂‐eq ha^?1 at a 25 Mg ha^?1 biochar application rate. The greatest GHG mitigation potential was from C sequestration and nitrous oxide (N₂O) reduction in mineral N fertilized soils, with minimal impacts on N₂O emissions in unfertilized soils, carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, and methane (CH₄) uptake. Analysis of mineral N dynamics in the bulk soil and on biochar isolates indicated that neither biochar impacts on net mineralization and nitrification nor retention of ammonium () on biochar isolates could explain biochar's N₂O reduction. Instead, biochar amendments exhibited consistent N₂O emission reductions relative to the N₂O emission in the control soil regardless of soil type and fertilization. Results across a soil moisture gradient suggest that woody biochar may aerate soils shifting redox conditions and subsequent N₂O production. Understanding the magnitude of biochar's GHG reduction potential and the mechanisms driving these effects can help inform biochar modeling efforts, explain field results and identify agricultural applications that maximize biochar's full GHG mitigation potential.     

森林经营与管理下的温室气体排放、碳泄漏和净固碳量研究进展

森林在减缓全球气候变化和大气CO₂浓度升高上具有重要作用.森林经营与管理下的新造林和森林保护具有显著的固碳功能,其中,新造林和森林保护的固碳速率分别为0.04～7.52、0.33～5.20 t C·hm^-2·a^-1.同时,营造林过程中物资的生产和运输导致边界内产生温室气体排放;营造林导致的活动转移、市场效应和生态环境变化导致边界外产生碳泄漏.本文综述了国内外森林经营与管理活动边界内温室气体排放源的界定、计量方法、温室气体排放量与排放速率;边界外碳泄漏的类型、计量方法与碳泄漏量;净固碳量以及温室气体排放和碳泄漏对固碳的抵消强度.边界内温室气体排放对固碳的抵消强度为0.01%～19.3%,进一步考虑碳泄漏时可增至95%.若仅考虑森林经营与管理在边界内直接产生的温室气体排放与可测量的活动转移碳泄漏,森林经营与管理具有较好的净固碳效益,且相比于农田固碳措施在温室气体净减排方面具有更好的应用前景.随着我国各项重大生态工程新一期的开展和对工程固碳效益的关注,为增加重大生态工程对温室气体的净减排量,有必要在工程开展前进行合理规划、在工程开展过程中加强控制和监测以减少工程实施导致的边界内温室气体排放和边界外碳泄漏.     

农田土壤固碳措施的温室气体泄漏和净减排潜力

农田土壤固碳措施作为京都议定书认可的大气CO2减排途径受到了广泛关注.研究表明,农田土壤固碳措施在主要农业国家和全球都具有很大的固碳潜力.但是,实施农田土壤固碳措施有可能影响农业中化石燃料消耗和其他农业投入的CO2排放和非CO2温室气体排放.这些土壤碳库以外的温室气体排放变化可能抵消部分甚至全部土壤固碳效果,构成了农田土壤固碳措施的温室气体泄漏.因此,将土壤固碳和温室气体泄漏综合计算的净减排潜力成为了判定土壤固碳措施可行性的首要标准.综述总结了目前较受重视的一些农田措施(包括施用化学氮肥、免耕和保护性耕作、灌溉、秸秆还田、施用禽畜粪便以及污灌)的土壤固碳潜力,温室气体泄漏和净减排潜力研究成果.结果表明,温室气体泄漏可抵消以上措施土壤固碳效益的-241%～660%.建议在今后的研究中,应该关注土壤碳饱和、气候变化及土地利用变化对农田固碳措施温室气体泄漏和净减排潜力的评估结果的影响.     

Decoupling of greenhouse gas emissions from global agricultural production: 1970–2050

Since 1970 global agricultural production has more than doubled; contributing ~1/4 of total anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) burden in 2010. Food production must increase to feed our growing demands, but to address climate change, GHG emissions must decrease. Using an identity approach, we estimate and analyse past trends in GHG emission intensities from global agricultural production and land‐use change and project potential future emissions. The novel Kaya–Porter identity framework deconstructs the entity of emissions from a mix of multiple sources of GHGs into attributable elements allowing not only a combined analysis of the total level of all emissions jointly with emissions per unit area and emissions per unit product. It also allows us to examine how a change in emissions from a given source contributes to the change in total emissions over time. We show that agricultural production and GHGs have been steadily decoupled over recent decades. Emissions peaked in 1991 at ~12 Pg CO₂‐eq. yr^?1 and have not exceeded this since. Since 1970 GHG emissions per unit product have declined by 39% and 44% for crop‐ and livestock‐production, respectively. Except for the energy‐use component of farming, emissions from all sources have increased less than agricultural production. Our projected business‐as‐usual range suggests that emissions may be further decoupled by 20–55% giving absolute agricultural emissions of 8.2–14.5 Pg CO₂‐eq. yr^?1 by 2050, significantly lower than many previous estimates that do not allow for decoupling. Beyond this, several additional costcompetitive mitigation measures could reduce emissions further. However, agricultural GHG emissions can only be reduced to a certain level and a simultaneous focus on other parts of the food‐system is necessary to increase food security whilst reducing emissions. The identity approach presented here could be used as a methodological framework for more holistic food systems analysis.     

Characterising the biophysical,economic and social impacts of soil carbon sequestration as a greenhouse gas removal technology

To limit warming to well below 2°C, most scenario projections rely on greenhouse gas removal technologies (GGRTs); one such GGRT uses soil carbon sequestration (SCS) in agricultural land. In addition to their role in mitigating climate change, SCS practices play a role in delivering agroecosystem resilience, climate change adaptability and food security. Environmental heterogeneity and differences in agricultural practices challenge the practical implementation of SCS, and our analysis addresses the associated knowledge gap. Previous assessments have focused on global potentials, but there is a need among policymakers to operationalise SCS. Here, we assess a range of practices already proposed to deliver SCS, and distil these into a subset of specific measures. We provide a multidisciplinary summary of the barriers and potential incentives towards practical implementation of these measures. First, we identify specific practices with potential for both a positive impact on SCS at farm level and an uptake rate compatible with global impact. These focus on: (a) optimising crop primary productivity (e.g. nutrient optimisation, pH management, irrigation); (b) reducing soil disturbance and managing soil physical properties (e.g. improved rotations, minimum till); (c) minimising deliberate removal of C or lateral transport via erosion processes (e.g. support measures, bare fallow reduction); (d) addition of C produced outside the system (e.g. organic manure amendments, biochar addition); (e) provision of additional C inputs within the cropping system (e.g. agroforestry, cover cropping). We then consider economic and non‐cost barriers and incentives for land managers implementing these measures, along with the potential externalised impacts of implementation. This offers a framework and reference point for holistic assessment of the impacts of SCS. Finally, we summarise and discuss the ability of extant scientific approaches to quantify the technical potential and externalities of SCS measures, and the barriers and incentives to their implementation in global agricultural systems.     

Which cropland greenhouse gas mitigation options give the greatest benefits in different world regions? Climate and soil‐specific predictions from integrated empirical models

Major sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from agricultural crop production are nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions resulting from the application of mineral and organic fertilizer, and carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions from soil carbon losses. Consequently, choice of fertilizer type, optimizing fertilizer application rates and timing, reducing microbial denitrification and improving soil carbon management are focus areas for mitigation. We have integrated separate models derived from global data on fertilizer‐induced soil N₂O emissions, soil nitrification inhibitors, and the effects of tillage and soil inputs of soil C stocks into a single model to determine optimal mitigation options as a function of soil type, climate, and fertilization rates. After Monte Carlo sampling of input variables, we aggregated the outputs according to climate, soil and fertilizer factors to consider the benefits of several possible emissions mitigation strategies, and identified the most beneficial option for each factor class on a per‐hectare basis. The optimal mitigation for each soil‐climate‐region was then mapped to propose geographically specific optimal GHG mitigation strategies for crops with varying N requirements. The use of empirical models reduces the requirements for validation (as they are calibrated on globally or continentally observed phenomena). However, as they are relatively simple in structure, they may not be applicable for accurate site‐specific prediction of GHG emissions. The value of this modelling approach is for initial screening and ranking of potential agricultural mitigation options and to explore the potential impact of regional agricultural GHG abatement policies. Given the clear association between management practice and crop productivity, it is essential to incorporate characterization of the yield effect on a given crop before recommending any mitigation practice.     

Large-scale deployment of grass in crop rotations as a multifunctional climate mitigation strategy

The agriculture sector can contribute to climate change mitigation by reducing its own greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, sequestering carbon in vegetation and soils, and providing biomass to substitute for fossil fuels and other GHG-intensive products. The sector also needs to address water, soil, and biodiversity impacts caused by historic and current practices. Emerging EU policies create incentives for cultivation of perennial plants that provide biomass along with environmental benefits. One such option, common in northern Europe, is to include grass in rotations with annual crops to provide biomass while remediating soil organic carbon (SOC) losses and other environmental impacts. Here, we apply a spatially explicit model on >81,000 sub-watersheds in EU27 + UK (Europe) to explore the effects of widespread deployment of such systems. Based on current accumulated SOC losses in individual sub-watersheds, the model identifies and quantifies suitable areas for increased grass cultivation and corresponding biomass- and protein supply, SOC sequestration, and reductions in nitrogen emissions to water as well as wind and water erosion. The model also provides information about possible flood mitigation. The results indicate a substantial climate mitigation potential, with combined annual GHG savings from soil-carbon sequestration and displacement of natural gas with biogas from grass-based biorefineries, equivalent to 13%–48% of current GHG emissions from agriculture in Europe. The environmental co-benefits are also notable, in some cases exceeding the estimated mitigation needs. Yield increases for annual crops in modified rotations mitigate the displacement effect of increasing grass cultivation. If the grass is used as feedstock in lieu of annual crops, the displacement effect can even be negative, that is, a reduced need for annual crop production elsewhere. Incentivizing widespread deployment will require supportive policy measures as well as new uses of grass biomass, for example, as feedstock for green biorefineries producing protein concentrate, biofuels, and other bio-based products.     

中国天然林资源保护工程温室气体排放及净固碳能力

基于天然林资源保护工程(简称天保工程)一期(2000—2010年)营造林过程工程边界内碳排放和边界外碳泄漏的计算,分析了天保工程及各区域碳排放和碳泄漏年际变化及影响因素,对比了天保工程及各区域碳排放和碳泄漏的组成特征,研究了天保工程及各区域净固碳量的变化特征。结果表明:天保工程一期西北、中西部地区、南部地区、东北地区和天保工程的碳排放分别为0.89、1.47、0.09、2.45 Tg C;碳泄漏分别为3.17、3.11、6.50、12.78 Tg C。工程措施和碳排放强度的区域性差异导致各区域碳排放组成特征不同。造林及配套森林基础设施建设是西北、中西部地区和南部地区最大的工程措施碳排放;新造林及森林管护是东北地区最大的工程措施碳排放。相应地,各种物资消耗中,建材是西北、中西部地区和南部地区最大的物资碳排放;燃油是东北地区最大的物资碳排放。天保工程在工程边界内外引起的额外温室气体排放量达到15.23 Tg C,抵消了工程固碳效益的9.82%;在西北、中西部地区、南部地区和东北地区的抵消作用分别为10.08%、8.16%和11.24%。天保工程一期净固碳量为139.77 Tg C,年均净固碳量为12.71 Tg C/a。因此,碳排放和碳泄漏对天保工程固碳的抵消较小,工程一期在我国温室气体减排和减缓全球气候变暖上做出了巨大贡献。避免工程基础设施的盲目建设和对工程进行合理规划是减少温室气体排放的可能途径。     

Quantifying global greenhouse gas emissions from land‐use change for crop production

Many assessments of product carbon footprint (PCF) for agricultural products omit emissions arising from land‐use change (LUC). In this study, we developed a framework based on IPCC national greenhouse gas inventory methodologies to assess the impacts of LUC from crop production using oil palm, soybean and oilseed rape as examples. Using ecological zone, climate and soil types from the top 20 producing countries, calculated emissions for transitions from natural vegetation to cropland on mineral soils under typical management ranged from ?4.5 to 29.4 t CO₂‐eq ha^?1 yr^?1 over 20 years for oil palm and 1.2–47.5 t CO₂‐eq ha^?1 yr^?1 over 20 years for soybeans. Oilseed rape showed similar results to soybeans, but with lower maximum values because it is mainly grown in areas with lower C stocks. GHG emissions from other land‐use transitions were between 62% and 95% lower than those from natural vegetation for the arable crops, while conversions to oil palm were a sink for C. LUC emissions were considered on a national basis and also expressed per‐tonne‐of‐oil‐produced. Weighted global averages indicate that, depending on the land‐use transition, oil crop production on newly converted land contributes between ?3.1 and 7.0 t CO₂‐eq t oil production^?1 yr^?1 for palm oil, 11.9–50.6 t CO₂‐eq t oil production^?1 yr^?1 for soybean oil, and 7.7–31.4 t CO₂‐eq t oil production^?1 yr^?1 for rapeseed oil. Assumptions made about crop and LUC distribution within countries contributed up to 66% error around the global averages for natural vegetation conversions. Uncertainty around biomass and soil C stocks were also examined. Finer resolution data and information (particularly on land management and yield) could improve reliability of the estimates but the framework can be used in all global regions and represents an important step forward for including LUC emissions in PCFs.     

Simulating greenhouse gas mitigation potentials for Chinese Croplands using the DAYCENT ecosystem model

Understanding the potential for greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation in agricultural lands is a critical challenge for climate change policy. This study uses the DAYCENT ecosystem model to predict GHG mitigation potentials associated with soil management in Chinese cropland systems. Application of ecosystem models, such as DAYCENT, requires the evaluation of model performance with data sets from experiments relevant to the climate and management of the study region. DAYCENT was evaluated with data from 350 cropland experiments in China, including measurements of nitrous oxide emissions (N₂O), methane emissions (CH₄), and soil organic carbon (SOC) stock changes. In general, the model was reasonably accurate with R² values for model predictions vs. measurements ranging from 0.71 to 0.85. Modeling efficiency varied from 0.65 for SOC stock changes to 0.83 for crop yields. Mitigation potentials were estimated on a yield basis (Mg CO₂‐equivalent Mg^?1Yield). The results demonstrate that the largest decrease in GHG emissions in rainfed systems are associated with combined effect of reducing mineral N fertilization, organic matter amendments and reduced‐till coupled with straw return, estimated at 0.31 to 0.83 Mg CO₂‐equivalent Mg^?1Yield. A mitigation potential of 0.08 to 0.36 Mg CO₂‐equivalent Mg^?1Yield is possible by reducing N chemical fertilizer rates, along with intermittent flooding in paddy rice cropping systems.     

Greenhouse gas fluxes over managed grasslands in Central Europe

Central European grasslands are characterized by a wide range of different management practices in close geographical proximity. Site‐specific management strategies strongly affect the biosphere–atmosphere exchange of the three greenhouse gases (GHG) carbon dioxide (CO₂), nitrous oxide (N₂O), and methane (CH₄). The evaluation of environmental impacts at site level is challenging, because most in situ measurements focus on the quantification of CO₂ exchange, while long‐term N₂O and CH₄ flux measurements at ecosystem scale remain scarce. Here, we synthesized ecosystem CO₂, N₂O, and CH₄ fluxes from 14 managed grassland sites, quantified by eddy covariance or chamber techniques. We found that grasslands were on average a CO₂ sink (−1,783 to −91 g CO₂ m⁻² year⁻¹), but a N₂O source (18–638 g CO₂‐eq. m⁻² year⁻¹), and either a CH₄ sink or source (−9 to 488 g CO₂‐eq. m⁻² year⁻¹). The net GHG balance (NGB) of nine sites where measurements of all three GHGs were available was found between −2,761 and −58 g CO₂‐eq. m⁻² year⁻¹, with N₂O and CH₄ emissions offsetting concurrent CO₂ uptake by on average 21 ± 6% across sites. The only positive NGB was found for one site during a restoration year with ploughing. The predictive power of soil parameters for N₂O and CH₄ fluxes was generally low and varied considerably within years. However, after site‐specific data normalization, we identified environmental conditions that indicated enhanced GHG source/sink activity (“sweet spots”) and gave a good prediction of normalized overall fluxes across sites. The application of animal slurry to grasslands increased N₂O and CH₄ emissions. The N₂O‐N emission factor across sites was 1.8 ± 0.5%, but varied considerably at site level among the years (0.1%–8.6%). Although grassland management led to increased N₂O and CH₄ emissions, the CO₂ sink strength was generally the most dominant component of the annual GHG budget.     

Reducing greenhouse gas emissions and adapting agricultural management for climate change in developing countries: providing the basis for action

Agriculture in developing countries has attracted increasing attention in international negotiations within the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change for both adaptation to climate change and greenhouse gas mitigation. However, there is limited understanding about potential complementarity between management practices that promote adaptation and mitigation, and limited basis to account for greenhouse gas emission reductions in this sector. The good news is that the global research community could provide the support needed to address these issues through further research linking adaptation and mitigation. In addition, a small shift in strategy by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and ongoing assistance from agricultural organizations could produce a framework to move the research and development from concept to reality. In turn, significant progress is possible in the near term providing the basis for UNFCCC negotiations to move beyond discussion to action for the agricultural sector in developing countries.