Fixation probability in a two-locus model by the ancestral recombination-selection graph

We use the ancestral influence graph (AIG) for a two-locus, two-allele selection model in the limit of a large population size to obtain an analytic approximation for the probability of ultimate fixation of a single mutant allele A. We assume that this new mutant is introduced at a given locus into a finite population in which a previous mutant allele B is already segregating with a wild type at another linked locus. We deduce that the fixation probability increases as the recombination rate increases if allele A is either in positive epistatic interaction with B and allele B is beneficial or in no epistatic interaction with B and then allele A itself is beneficial. This holds at least as long as the recombination fraction and the selection intensity are small enough and the population size is large enough. In particular this confirms the Hill-Robertson effect, which predicts that recombination renders more likely the ultimate fixation of beneficial mutants at different loci in a population in the presence of random genetic drift even in the absence of epistasis. More importantly, we show that this is true from weak negative epistasis to positive epistasis, at least under weak selection. In the case of deleterious mutants, the fixation probability decreases as the recombination rate increases. This supports Muller's ratchet mechanism to explain the accumulation of deleterious mutants in a population lacking recombination.     

The Evolution of Recombination: Removing the Limits to Natural Selection

One of the oldest hypotheses for the advantage of recombination is that recombination allows beneficial mutations that arise in different individuals to be placed together on the same chromosome. Unless recombination occurs, one of the beneficial alleles is doomed to extinction, slowing the rate at which adaptive mutations are incorporated within a population. We model the effects of a modifier of recombination on the fixation probability of beneficial mutations when beneficial alleles are segregating at other loci. We find that modifier alleles that increase recombination do increase the fixation probability of beneficial mutants and subsequently hitchhike along as the mutants rise in frequency. The strength of selection favoring a modifier that increases recombination is proportional to λ(2)Sδr/r when linkage is tight and λ(2)S(3)δ r/N when linkage is loose, where λ is the beneficial mutation rate per genome per generation throughout a population of size N, S is the average mutant effect, r is the average recombination rate, and δr is the amount that recombination is modified. We conclude that selection for recombination will be substantial only if there is tight linkage within the genome or if many loci are subject to directional selection as during periods of rapid evolutionary change.     

Ancestral processes for non-neutral models of complex diseases

We consider non-neutral models for unlinked loci, where the fitness of a chromosome or individual is not multiplicative across loci. Such models are suitable for many complex diseases, where there are gene-interactions. We derive a genealogical process for such models, called the complex selection graph (CSG). This coalescent-type process is related to the ancestral selection graph, and is derived from the ancestral influence graph by considering the limit as the recombination rate between loci gets large. We analyse the CSG both theoretically and via simulation. The main results are that the gene-interactions do not produce linkage disequilibrium, but do produce dependencies in allele frequencies between loci. For small selection rates, the distributions of the genealogy and the allele frequencies at a single locus are well-approximated by their distributions under a single locus model, where the fitness of each allele is the average of the true fitnesses of that allele with respect to the distribution of alleles at other loci.     

Linkage Disequilibrium and Genetic Variances under Mutation-Selection Balance

I determine the contribution of linkage disequilibrium to genetic variances using results for two loci and for induced or marginal systems. The analysis allows epistasis and dominance, but assumes that mutation is weak relative to selection. The linkage disequilibrium component of genetic variance is shown to be unimportant for unlinked loci if the gametic mutation rate divided by the harmonic mean of the pairwise recombination rates is much less than one. For tightly linked loci, linkage disequilibrium is unimportant if the gametic mutation rate divided by the (induced) per locus selection is much less than one.     

Evolution of recombination due to random drift

In finite populations subject to selection, genetic drift generates negative linkage disequilibrium, on average, even if selection acts independently (i.e., multiplicatively) upon all loci. Negative disequilibrium reduces the variance in fitness and hence, by Fisher's (1930) fundamental theorem, slows the rate of increase in mean fitness. Modifiers that increase recombination eliminate the negative disequilibria that impede selection and consequently increase in frequency by "hitchhiking." Thus, stochastic fluctuations in linkage disequilibrium in finite populations favor the evolution of increased rates of recombination, even in the absence of epistatic interactions among loci and even when disequilibrium is initially absent. The method developed within this article allows us to quantify the strength of selection acting on a modifier allele that increases recombination in a finite population. The analysis indicates that stochastically generated linkage disequilibria do select for increased recombination, a result that is confirmed by Monte Carlo simulations. Selection for a modifier that increases recombination is highest when linkage among loci is tight, when beneficial alleles rise from low to high frequency, and when the population size is small.     

Sexual recombination under the joint effects of mutation,selection, and random sampling drift

The advantage or disadvantage of sexual reproduction or recombination for the accumulation of mutant genes in a population is studied under the joint effects of recurrent mutations, selection, and random sampling drift. To obtain the rate at which mutant genes are incorporated three different methods are used; numerical integration of Kolmogorov backward equations, simulation of stochastic difference equations, and Monte Carlo experiments. The first two methods are used in a two-locus system to obtain the fixation probability of double mutants and other related quantities under five different selection models. The third one is conducted for a multiple-locus system and the rate of accumulation of mutant genes per locus is studied. Comparison of the results between sexual and asexual populations shows that the effect of recombination depends on initial linkage disequilibrium, mutation rate v, selection intensity s, and population size N_e. The mode of selection is also an important factor and the large effect of recombination is observed when mutant genes are individually deleterious but collectively favorable. Under a given model of selection, the great advantage or disadvantage of recombination is achieved when a large extent of genetic polymorphism is produced not by mutation but by recombination. Extreme values of N_es and N_ev make the effect insignificant. The results of Monte Carlo experiments also reveal the presence of interaction between selection and sampling drift even when the loci segregate independently and selection is multiplicative. Although this interaction is usually small, there are cases in which one locus theory cannot be used freely. In those cases, the effect of recombination is prominent and one locus theory gives an overestimate of the rate.     

The evolution of recombination in a heterogeneous environment

Most models describing the evolution of recombination have focused on the case of a single population, implicitly assuming that all individuals are equally likely to mate and that spatial heterogeneity in selection is absent. In these models, the evolution of recombination is driven by linkage disequilibria generated either by epistatic selection or drift. Models based on epistatic selection show that recombination can be favored if epistasis is negative and weak compared to directional selection and if the recombination modifier locus is tightly linked to the selected loci. In this article, we examine the joint effects of spatial heterogeneity in selection and epistasis on the evolution of recombination. In a model with two patches, each subject to different selection regimes, we consider the cases of mutation-selection and migration-selection balance as well as the spread of beneficial alleles. We find that including spatial heterogeneity extends the range of epistasis over which recombination can be favored. Indeed, recombination can be favored without epistasis, with negative and even with positive epistasis depending on environmental circumstances. The selection pressure acting on recombination-modifier loci is often much stronger with spatial heterogeneity, and even loosely linked modifiers and free linkage may evolve. In each case, predicting whether recombination is favored requires knowledge of both the type of environmental heterogeneity and epistasis, as none of these factors alone is sufficient to predict the outcome.     

Hill–Robertson interference maintained by Red Queen dynamics favours the evolution of sex

Although it is well established theoretically that selective interference among mutations (Hill–Robertson interference) favours meiotic recombination, genomewide mean rates of mutation and strengths of selection appear too low to support this as the mechanism favouring recombination in nature. A possible solution to this discrepancy between theory and observation is that selection is at least intermittently very strong due to the antagonistic coevolution between a host and its parasites. The Red Queen theory posits that such coevolution generates fitness epistasis among loci, which generates negative linkage disequilibrium among beneficial mutations, which in turn favours recombination. This theory has received only limited support. However, Red Queen dynamics without epistasis may provide the ecological conditions that maintain strong and frequent selective interference in finite populations that indirectly selects for recombination. This hypothesis is developed here through the simulation of Red Queen dynamics. This approach required the development of a method to calculate the exact frequencies of multilocus haplotypes after recombination. Simulations show that recombination is favoured by the moderately weak selection of many loci involved in the interaction between a host and its parasites, which results in substitution rates that are compatible with empirical estimates. The model also reproduces the previously reported rapid increase in the rate of outcrossing in Caenorhabditis elegans coevolving with a bacterial pathogen.     

SELECTION FOR RECOMBINATION IN SMALL POPULATIONS

Abstract The reasons that sex and recombination are so widespread remain elusive. One popular hypothesis is that sex and recombination promote adaptation to a changing environment. The strongest evidence that increased recombination may evolve because recombination promotes adaptation comes from artificially selected populations. Recombination rates have been found to increase as a correlated response to selection on traits unrelated to recombination in several artificial selection experiments and in a comparison of domesticated and nondomesticated mammals. There are, however, several alternative explanations for the increase in recombination in such populations, including two different evolutionary explanations. The first is that the form of selection is epistatic, generating linkage disequilibria among selected loci, which can indirectly favor modifier alleles that increase recombination. The second is that random genetic drift in selected populations tends to generate disequilibria such that beneficial alleles are often found in different individuals; modifier alleles that increase recombination can bring together such favorable alleles and thus may be found in individuals with greater fitness. In this paper, we compare the evolutionary forces acting on recombination in finite populations subject to strong selection. To our surprise, we found that drift accounted for the majority of selection for increased recombination observed in simulations of small to moderately large populations, suggesting that, unless selected populations are large, epistasis plays a secondary role in the evolution of recombination.     

The dynamics of the rec-system in variable environments: haploid selection in a cyclical two-state environment

The dynamics of a 3-locus infinite population with non-overlapping generations and panmixia was studied. Loci are di-allelic: two loci affect fitness under cyclical symmetric haploid selection while the third one is a modifier of recombination (rec-modifier). Selection favors alternatively haplotypes AB and ab or Ab and aB. It has been proven that under alternating selection (when period of selection consists of two generations) a dominant suppressor of recombination is displaced and the allele for non-zero recombination becomes fixed within the population. For populations with inversion heterozygosity within the selective system (i.e. with zero recombination in heterozygote for rec-modifier and non-zero for homozygotes) fixation of one of the alleles (depending on the initial point) at the rec-modifier locus is predicted. For other values of recombination parameters, the behavior of the system was studied numerically. A full bifurcation picture of parameters was obtained. Many of the results related to the case of a two-generation period hold also in the case of longer period lengths.     

Meiosis and the evolution of recombination at low mutation rates

The classical understanding of recombination is that in large asexual populations with multiplicative fitness, linkage disequilibrium is negligible, and thus there is no selective agent driving an allele for recombination. This has led researchers to recognize the importance of synergistic epistatic selection in generating negative linkage disequilibrium that thereby renders an advantage to recombination. Yet data on such selection is equivocal, and various works have shown that synergistic epistasis per se, when left unquantified in its magnitude or operation, is not sufficient to drive the evolution of recombination. Here we show that neither it, nor any mechanism generating negative linkage disequilibrium among fitness-related loci, is necessary. We demonstrate that a neutral gene for recombination can increase in frequency in a large population under a low mutation rate and strict multiplicative fitness. We work in a parameter range where individuals have, on average, less than one mutation each, yet recombination can still evolve. We demonstrate this in two ways: first, by examining the consequences of recombination correlated with misrepaired DNA damage and, second, by increasing the probability of recombination with declining fitness. Interestingly, the allele spreads without repairing even a single DNA mutation.     

Effect of varying epistasis on the evolution of recombination

Whether recombination decelerates or accelerates a population's response to selection depends, at least in part, on how fitness-determining loci interact. Realistically, all genomes likely contain fitness interactions both with positive and with negative epistasis. Therefore, it is crucial to determine the conditions under which the potential beneficial effects of recombination with negative epistasis prevail over the detrimental effects of recombination with positive epistasis. Here, we examine the simultaneous effects of diverse epistatic interactions with different strengths and signs in a simplified model system with independent pairs of interacting loci and selection acting only on the haploid phase. We find that the average form of epistasis does not predict the average amount of linkage disequilibrium generated or the impact on a recombination modifier when compared to results using the entire distribution of epistatic effects and associated single-mutant effects. Moreover, we show that epistatic interactions of a given strength can produce very different effects, having the greatest impact when selection is weak. In summary, we observe that the evolution of recombination at mutation-selection balance might be driven by a small number of interactions with weak selection rather than by the average epistasis of all interactions. We illustrate this effect with an analysis of published data of Saccharomyces cerevisiae. Thus to draw conclusions on the evolution of recombination from experimental data, it is necessary to consider the distribution of epistatic interactions together with the associated selection coefficients.     

Integrating genealogy and epidemiology: the ancestral infection and selection graph as a model for reconstructing host virus histories

We model the genealogies of coupled haploid host-virus populations. Hosts reproduce and replace other hosts as in the Moran model. The virus can be transmitted between individuals of the same and succeeding generations. The epidemic model allows a selective advantage for susceptible over infected hosts. The coupled host-virus ancestry of a sample of hosts is embedded in a branching and coalescing structure that we call the Ancestral Infection and Selection Graph, a direct analogue to the Ancestral Selection Graph of Krone and Neuhauser [1997. Theoret. Population Biol. 51, 210-237]. We prove this and discuss various special cases. We show that the inter-host viral genealogy is a scaled coalescent. Using simulations, we compare the viral genealogy under this model to earlier published models and investigate the estimatability of the selection and infectious contact rates. We use simulations to compare the persistence of the disease with the time to the ultimate ancestor.     

The evolutionary advantage of fitness‐dependent recombination in diploids: A deterministic mutation–selection balance model

Recombination's omnipresence in nature is one of the most intriguing problems in evolutionary biology. The question of why recombination exhibits certain general features is no less interesting than that of why it exists at all. One such feature is recombination's fitness dependence (FD). The so far developed population genetics models have focused on the evolution of FD recombination mainly in haploids, although the empirical evidence for this phenomenon comes mostly from diploids. Using numerical analysis of modifier models for infinite panmictic populations, we show here that FD recombination can be evolutionarily advantageous in diploids subjected to purifying selection. We ascribe this advantage to the differential rate of disruption of lower‐ versus higher‐fitness genotypes, which can be manifested in selected systems with at least three loci. We also show that if the modifier is linked to such selected system, it can additionally benefit from modifying this linkage in a fitness‐dependent manner. The revealed evolutionary advantage of FD recombination appeared robust to crossover interference within the selected system, either positive or negative. Remarkably, FD recombination was often favored in situations where any constant nonzero recombination was evolutionarily disfavored, implying a relaxation of the rather strict constraints on major parameters (e.g., selection intensity and epistasis) required for the evolutionary advantage of nonzero recombination formulated by classical models.     

The Hill-Robertson effect and the evolution of recombination

In finite populations, genetic drift generates interference between selected loci, causing advantageous alleles to be found more often on different chromosomes than on the same chromosome, which reduces the rate of adaptation. This "Hill-Robertson effect" generates indirect selection to increase recombination rates. We present a new method to quantify the strength of this selection. Our model represents a new beneficial allele (A) entering a population as a single copy, while another beneficial allele (B) is sweeping at another locus. A third locus affects the recombination rate between selected loci. Using a branching process model, we calculate the probability distribution of the number of copies of A on the different genetic backgrounds, after it is established but while it is still rare. Then, we use a deterministic model to express the change in frequency of the recombination modifier, due to hitchhiking, as A goes to fixation. We show that this method can give good estimates of selection for recombination. Moreover, it shows that recombination is selected through two different effects: it increases the fixation probability of new alleles, and it accelerates selective sweeps. The relative importance of these two effects depends on the relative times of occurrence of the beneficial alleles.     

Linkage Disequilibrium in Subdivided Populations

The linkage disequilibrium in a subdivided populaton is shown to be equal to the sum of the average linkage disequilibrium for all subpopulations and the covariance between gene frequencies of the loci concerned. Thus, in a subdivided population the linkage disequilibrium may not be 0 even if the linkage disequilibrium in each subpopulation is 0. If a population is divided into two subpopulations between which migration occurs, the asymptotic rate of approach to linkage equilibrium is equal to either r or 2(m(1) + m(2)) - (m(1) + m(2))(2), whichever is smaller, where r is the recombination value and m(1) and m(2) are the proportions of immigrants in subpopulations 1 and 2, respectively. Thus, if migration rate is high compared with recombination value, the change of linkage disequilibrium in subdivided populations is similar to that of a single random mating population. On the other hand, if migration rate is low, the approach to lnkage equilibrium may be retarded in subdivided populations. If isolated populations begin to exchange genes by migration, linkage disequilibrium may increase temporarily even for neutral loci. If overdominant selection operates and the equilibrium gene frequencies are different in the two subpopulations, a permanent linkage disequilibrium may be produced without epistasis in each subpopulation.     

Mutation modification with multiplicative fertility selection

Two diallelic loci in an infinite panmictic population of diploid individuals are modelled. The A/a locus is subject to unidirectional mutation and either multiplicative fertility selection or, equivalently, sex-asymmetric viability selection. The M/m locus acts as a selectively neutral modifier of the mutation rate at A/a. The loci recombine at rate R. If the M/m locus is initially monomorphic, and the A/a locus has reached equilibrium, the fate of a new modifier allele is found to depend not just on its relative effect on mutation but also upon the linkage, R. Each initial equilibrium may be characterized by a critical value of the recombination rate, R*. If 0 less than R* less than 0.5, a sufficiently small "down" modifier of the mutation rate will invade the population when R less than R* whereas a sufficiently small "up" modifier will succeed when R greater than R*. If R* less than 0 or R* greater than 0.5, only mutation reduction may occur. Numerical analysis of 56,000 sample equilibria indicates that mutation rates may be increased, but only when the selection regime is such that the A/a locus would remain polymorphic in the absence of mutation.     

Intratetrad mating and the evolution of linkage relationships

Mating among the immediate products of meiosis (intratetrad mating) is a common feature of many organisms with parthenogenesis or with mating-type determination in the haploid phase. Using a three-locus deterministic model we show that intratetrad mating, unlike other systems of mating, allows sheltering of deleterious recessive alleles even if there is only partial linkage between a mating locus and a load locus. Moreover, modifiers that reduce recombination between the load and mating-type locus will spread to fixation, even when there is no linkage disequilibrium between these loci in the population as a whole. This seeming contradiction to classical expectation is because partial linkage generates linkage disequilibrium among segregating loci within a tetrad, which then acts as the "mating unit."     

QUANTITATIVE GENETIC VARIANCE MAINTAINED BY FLUCTUATING SELECTION WITH OVERLAPPING GENERATIONS: VARIANCE COMPONENTS AND COVARIANCES

The quantitative genetic variance-covariance that can be maintained in a random environment is studied, assuming overlapping generations and Gaussian stabilizing selection with a fluctuating optimum. The phenotype of an individual is assumed to be determined by additive contributions from each locus on paternal and maternal gametes (i.e., no epistasis and no dominance). Recurrent mutation is ignored, but linkage between loci is arbitrary. The genotype distribution in the evolutionarily stable population is generically discrete: only a finite number of polymorphic alleles with distinctly different effects are maintained, even though we allow a continuum of alleles with arbitrary phenotypic contributions to invade. Fluctuating selection maintains nonzero genetic variance in the evolutionarily stable population if the environmental heterogeneity is larger than a certain threshold. Explicit asymptotic expressions for the standing variance-covariance components are derived for the population near the threshold, or for large generational overlap, as a function of environmental variability and genetic parameters (i.e., number of loci, recombination rate, etc.), using the fact that the genotype distribution is discrete. Above the threshold, the population maintains considerable genetic variance in the form of positive linkage disequilibrium and positive gamete covariance (Hardy-Weinberg disequilibrium) as well as allelic variance. The relative proportion of these disequilibrium variances in the total genetic variance increases with the environmental variability.