Experimental test and life estimation of the OLED at normal working stress based on the luminance degradation model

In order to accurately acquire the life time information for the organic light emitting diode (OLED), an experiment based on the normal stress life test was carried out to gain the data for the luminance degradation tests. The luminance degradation model of OLED was established based on the Weibull function and the least square method. Combined with luminance degradation data, Weibull parameters were estimated, the qualitative and the quantitative relationship between the initial luminance and the OLED life was obtained, and the life estimation of the product was achieved. Numerical results show that the test scheme is feasible, the luminance degradation model proves to be reliable for the OLED life estimation, and the fitting accuracy is very high by comparison with the test data fluctuation. Moreover, the real life time of the OLED is measured, which can verify the validity of the assumptions used in accelerated life test methods and provide manufacturers and customers with significant guidelines. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Kinetic modeling of native Cassava starch thermo‐oxidative degradation using Weibull and Weibull‐derived models

A new approach in kinetic modeling of thermo‐oxidative degradation process of starch granules extracted from the Cassava roots was developed. Based on the thermoanalytical measurements, three reaction stages were detected. Using Weibull and Weibull‐derived (inverse) models, it was found that the first two reaction stages could be described with the change of apparent activation energy (E_a) on conversion fraction (α(T)) (using “Model‐free” analysis). It was found that first reaction stage, which involves dehydration and evaporation of lower molecular mass fractions, can be described with an inverse Weibull model. This model with its distribution of E_a values and derived distribution parameters includes the occurrence of three‐dimensional diffusion mechanism. The second reaction stage is very complex, and it was found to contain the system of simultaneous reactions (where depolymerization occurs), and can be described with standard Weibull model. Identified statistical model with its distribution of E_a values and derived distribution parameters includes the kinetic model that gives the variable reaction order values. Based on the established models, shelf‐life studies for first two stages were carried out. Shelf‐life testing has shown that optimal dehydration time is achieved by a programmed heating at medium heating rate, whereas optimal time of degradation is achieved at highest heating rate. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Biopolymers 101: 41–57, 2014.     

The influence of local environment on the aging and mortality ofAedes aegypti (L.): Case study in Fortaleza‐CE,Brazil

It is generally assumed that the daily probability of survival of mosquitoes is independent of age. To test this assumption we have conducted a three‐year experimental fieldwork study (2005–2007) at Fortaleza‐CE in Brazil, determining daily survival rates of the dengue vector Aedes aegypti (L.). Survival rates of adult Ae. aegypti may be age‐dependent and the statistical analysis is a sensitive approach for comparing patterns of mosquito survival. The mosquito survival data were better fit by a Weibull survival function than by the more traditionally used Gompertz or logistic survival functions. Gompertz, Weibull, or logistic survival functions often fit the survival, and the tails of the survival curves usually appear to fall between the values predicted by the three functions. We corroborate that the mortality of Ae. aegypti in semi‐natural conditions may no more be considered as a constant phenomenon during the life of adult mosquitoes but varies according to the age and environmental conditions under a tropical climate. This study estimates the variability in the survival rate of Ae. aegypti and environmental factors that are related to such variability. The statistical analysis shows that the fitting ability, concerning the hazard function, was in decreasing order: Seasonal Cox, the three‐parameter Gompertz, and the three‐parameter Weibull, that was similar to the three‐parameter logistic. The advantage of using the Cox model is that it is convenient for exploring the relationship between survival and several explanatory variables. The Cox model has the advantage of preserving the variable in its original quantitative form and of using a maximum of information. The survival analyses indicate that mosquito mortality is both age‐ and environment‐dependent.     

Two life prediction models for optoelectronic displays without conventional life tests

To precisely predict the life of optoelectronic displays over a short time, two life prediction models were established based on the three‐parameter Weibull right approximation method (TPWRAM). In Model I, the acceleration life under each stress was obtained using TPWRAM, the data points formed by acceleration life and acceleration stress were, respectively, fitted by three extrapolation functions and the optimal extrapolation function was determined by comparing the fitting determination coefficient and root‐mean‐square error. In Model II, after introducing an acceleration parameter, the luminance attenuation data under conventional stress were calculated directly by combining the ones obtained using TPWRAM under each acceleration stress. The luminance attenuation test data from the vacuum fluorescent display (VFD) were collected through four groups of constant‐stress accelerated degradation tests (ADT), and the two models were applied to the life prediction of VFD. The results indicated that the designed ADT scheme was feasible, Model I revealed the changing law of life with stress and simplified the process of life prediction, and Model II made it possible to obtain the luminance attenuation formula at conventional stress without conducting a conventional life test, overcoming the shortcomings of long time‐consuming traditional life tests. It was verified by comparing the life prediction values that the two models had very high precision, and both of these not only achieve the accurate estimation of optoelectronic product life without resorting to conventional life test, but also improved the method of life prediction and perfect its theoretical system.     

Climate change is the primary driver of white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) range expansion at the northern extent of its range; land use is secondary

Quantifying the relative influence of multiple mechanisms driving recent range expansion of non‐native species is essential for predicting future changes and for informing adaptation and management plans to protect native species. White‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) have been expanding their range into the North American boreal forest over the last half of the 20th century. This has already altered predator–prey dynamics in Alberta, Canada, where the distribution likely reaches the northern extent of its continuous range. Although current white‐tailed deer distribution is explained by both climate and human land use, the influence each factor had on the observed range expansion would depend on the spatial and temporal pattern of these changes. Our objective was to quantify the relative importance of land use and climate change as drivers of white‐tailed deer range expansion and to predict decadal changes in white‐tailed deer distribution in northern Alberta for the first half of the 21st century. An existing species distribution model was used to predict past decadal distributions of white‐tailed deer which were validated using independent data. The effects of climate and land use change were isolated by comparing predictions under theoretical “no‐change between decades” scenarios, for each factor, to predictions under observed climate and land use change. Climate changes led to more than 88%, by area, of the increases in probability of white‐tailed deer presence across all decades. The distribution is predicted to extend 100 km further north across the northeastern Alberta boreal forest as climate continues to change over the first half of the 21st century.     

Analytical Quantile Solution for the S‐distribution,Random Number Generation and Statistical Data Modeling

The selection of a specific statistical distribution as a model for describing the population behavior of a given variable is seldom a simple problem. One strategy consists in testing different distributions (normal, lognormal, Weibull, etc.), and selecting the one providing the best fit to the observed data and being the most parsimonious. Alternatively, one can make a choice based on theoretical arguments and simply fit the corresponding parameters to the observed data. In either case, different distributions can give similar results and provide almost equivalent models for a given data set. Model selection can be more complicated when the goal is to describe a trend in the distribution of a given variable. In those cases, changes in shape and skewness are difficult to represent by a single distributional form. As an alternative to the use of complicated families of distributions as models for data, the S‐distribution [Voit, E. O. (1992) Biom. J. 7 , 855–878] provides a highly flexible mathematical form in which the density is defined as a function of the cumulative. S‐distributions can accurately approximate many known continuous and unimodal distributions, preserving the well known limit relationships between them. Besides representing well‐known distributions, S‐distributions provide an infinity of new possibilities that do not correspond with known classical distributions. Although the utility and performance of this general form has been clearly proved in different applications, its definition as a differential equation is a potential drawback for some problems. In this paper we obtain an analytical solution for the quantile equation that highly simplifies the use of S‐distributions. We show the utility of this solution in different applications. After classifying the different qualitative behaviors of the S‐distribution in parameter space, we show how to obtain different S‐distributions that accomplish specific constraints. One of the most interesting cases is the possibility of obtaining distributions that acomplish P(X ≤ X_c) = 0. Then, we demonstrate that the quantile solution facilitates the use of S‐distributions in Monte‐Carlo experiments through the generation of random samples. Finally, we show how to fit an S‐distribution to actual data, so that the resulting distribution can be used as a statistical model for them.     

Relationship between Modelling Accuracy and Inflection Point Attributes of Several Equations while Modelling Stand Diameter Distributions

In this study, seven popular equations, including 3-parameter Weibull, 2-parameter Weibull, Gompertz, Logistic, Mitscherlich, Korf and R distribution, were used to model stand diameter distributions for exploring the relationship between the equations’ inflection point attributes and model accuracy. A database comprised of 146 diameter frequency distributions of Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata (Lamb.) Hook.) plantations was used to demonstrate model fitting and comparison. Results showed that the inflection points of the stand diameter cumulative percentage distribution ranged from 0.4 to 0.6, showing a 1/2 close rule. The equation’s inflection point attribute was strongly related to its model accuracy. Equation with an inflection point showed much higher accuracy than that without an inflection point. The larger the effective inflection point interval of the fitting curve of the equation was, and the closer the inflection point was to 0.5 for the equations with fixed inflection points, the higher the equation’s accuracy was. It could be found that the equation’s inflection point had close relationship with skewness of diameter distribution and stand age, stand density, which provided a scientific basis for model selection of a stand diameter distribution for Chinese fir plantations and other tree species.     

The effect of terrain and female density on survival of neonatal white‐tailed deer and mule deer fawns

Juvenile survival is a highly variable life‐history trait that is critical to population growth. Antipredator tactics, including an animal's use of its physical and social environment, are critical to juvenile survival. Here, we tested the hypothesis that habitat and social characteristics influence coyote (Canis latrans) predation on white‐tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and mule deer (O. hemionus) fawns in similar ways during the neonatal period. This would contrast to winter when the habitat and social characteristics that provide the most safety for each species differ. We monitored seven cohorts of white‐tailed deer and mule deer fawns at a grassland study site in Alberta, Canada. We used logistic regression and a model selection procedure to determine how habitat characteristics, climatic conditions, and female density influenced fawn survival during the first 8 weeks of life. Fawn survival improved after springs with productive vegetation (high integrated Normalized Difference Vegetation Index values). Fawns that used steeper terrain were more likely to survive. Fawns of both species had improved survival in years with higher densities of mule deer females, but not with higher densities of white‐tailed deer females, as predicted if they benefit from protection by mule deer. Our results suggest that topographical variation is a critical resource for neonates of many ungulate species, even species like white‐tailed deer that use more gentle terrain when older. Further, our results raise the possibility that neonatal white‐tailed fawns may benefit from associating with mule deer females, which may contribute to the expansion of white‐tailed deer into areas occupied by mule deer.     

Correlation Goodness‐of‐fit Test for the Logarithmically‐Decreasing Survival Distribution

In this paper, we use the correlation‐type goodness‐of‐fit test for the logarithmically‐decreasing survival distribution. This model was intoduced by Sultan , Balakrishnan and Childs (2001) as a special case of Type‐I truncated logistic distribution. The power of the test based on normal, Weibull and gamma distributions is also calculated. We also give application to real example.     

Modelling geographic patterns of population density of the white‐tailed deer in central Mexico by implementing ecological niche theory

Conservation and management of species require basic knowledge on their geographic distribution and abundance. Here, we propose a novel approach, based on the theory of the ecological niche, to model the spatial patterns of the white‐tailed deer Odocoileus virginianus population density in two regions of central Mexico (Balsas Basin and Tehuacán‐Cuicatlán Valley). We used an ecological niche model to generate binary geographic distribution maps of the white‐tailed deer in each region based on occurrence data and a set of environmental variables. Then, the centroid of the distributions was calculated in ecological space (niche centroid) and the multidimensional Euclidian ecological distance of each pixel to the niche centroid was estimated. Finally, for each region the distance to the niche centroid (DNC) was regressed against 14 independent occurrence points in each site containing white‐tailed deer density information to determine the function describing the DNC‐density relationship, which was used to generate maps describing the distribution of white‐tailed deer density. Our results indicated an inverse DNC‐density relationship in both regions (Balsas Basin: r² = 0.90 and Tehuacán‐Cuicatlán: r² = 0.76) that was validated via bootstrapping resulting in a predicting capacity of near 62% for Balsas Basin and 65% for Tehuacán‐Cuicatlán Valley. Our results suggest that the distance to the niche centroid method is a robust, science‐based correlative approach that resulted useful to predict the population density of the white‐tailed deer in a spatially explicit fashion. The proposed approach is suitable for predicting the distribution of density for white‐tailed deer for which occurrence data with accompanying density information exists, but relative abundance can also be estimated when no abundance data are available.     

Recalcitrant vulnerability curves: methods of analysis and the concept of fibre bridges for enhanced cavitation resistance

Vulnerability curves (VCs) generally can be fitted to the Weibull equation; however, a growing number of VCs appear to be recalcitrant, that is, deviate from a Weibull but seem to fit dual Weibull curves. We hypothesize that dual Weibull curves in Hippophae rhamnoides L. are due to different vessel diameter classes, inter‐vessel hydraulic connections or vessels versus fibre tracheids. We used dye staining techniques, hydraulic measurements and quantitative anatomy measurements to test these hypotheses. The fibres contribute 1.3% of the total stem conductivity, which eliminates the hypothesis that fibre tracheids account for the second Weibull curve. Nevertheless, the staining pattern of vessels and fibre tracheids suggested that fibres might function as a hydraulic bridge between adjacent vessels. We also argue that fibre bridges are safer than vessel‐to‐vessel pits and put forward the concept as a new paradigm. Hence, we tentatively propose that the first Weibull curve may be accounted by vessels connected to each other directly by pit fields, while the second Weibull curve is associated with vessels that are connected almost exclusively by fibre bridges. Further research is needed to test the concept of fibre bridge safety in species that have recalcitrant or normal Weibull curves.     

Exponentiated Exponential Family: An Alternative to Gamma and Weibull Distributions

In this article we study some properties of a new family of distributions, namely Exponentiated Exponential distribution, discussed in Gupta , Gupta , and Gupta (1998). The Exponentiated Exponential family has two parameters (scale and shape) similar to a Weibull or a gamma family. It is observed that many properties of this new family are quite similar to those of a Weibull or a gamma family, therefore this distribution can be used as a possible alternative to a Weibull or a gamma distribution. We present two real life data sets, where it is observed that in one data set exponentiated exponential distribution has a better fit compared to Weibull or gamma distribution and in the other data set Weibull has a better fit than exponentiated exponential or gamma distribution. Some numerical experiments are performed to see how the maximum likelihood estimators and their asymptotic results work for finite sample sizes.     

A note on the consistency of life tables for total populations with those for their subpopulations

Abstract

The life table for the total population, when constructed from the overall age‐specific mortality rates, becomes inconsistent with the life tables for its between‐heterogeneous subpopulations. The consistent life table for the total population can be derived from those for the subpopulations, when the latter are constructed with radixes proportional to the distribution of these subpopulations at birth. As an example, this consistency approach is used to reconstruct the total life table for the United States for 1984 from those for white males, white females, nonwhite males, and nonwhite females, and to compare it with the corresponding life table computed by the conventional method by the U.S. National Center for Health Statistics. The expectation of life at birth for the total population by the consistency approach is found to be 74.37, which is 0.38 year lower than the NCHS number of 74.75.     

Artificial light at night causes diapause inhibition and sex‐specific life history changes in a moth

Rapidly increasing levels of light pollution subject nocturnal organisms to major alterations of their habitat, the ecological consequences of which are largely unknown. Moths are well‐known to be attracted to light at night, but effects of light on other aspects of moth ecology, such as larval development and life‐history, remain unknown. Such effects may have important consequences for fitness and thus for moth population sizes. To study the effects of artificial night lighting on development and life‐history of moths, we experimentally subjected Mamestra brassicae (Noctuidae) caterpillars to low intensity green, white, red or no artificial light at night and determined their growth rate, maximum caterpillar mass, age at pupation, pupal mass and pupation duration. We found sex‐specific effects of artificial light on caterpillar life‐history, with male caterpillars subjected to green and white light reaching a lower maximum mass, pupating earlier and obtaining a lower pupal mass than male caterpillars under red light or in darkness. These effects can have major implications for fitness, but were absent in female caterpillars. Moreover, by the time that the first adult moth from the dark control treatment emerged from its pupa (after 110 days), about 85% of the moths that were under green light and 83% of the moths that were under white light had already emerged. These differences in pupation duration occurred in both sexes and were highly significant, and likely result from diapause inhibition by artificial night lighting. We conclude that low levels of nocturnal illumination can disrupt life‐histories in moths and inhibit the initiation of pupal diapause. This may result in reduced fitness and increased mortality. The application of red light, instead of white or green light, might be an appropriate measure to mitigate negative artificial light effects on moth life history.     

樟子松沙地人工林直径分布模拟

利用反 Weibull函数模拟了章古台沙地樟子松人工林的直径分布规律 .结果表明 ,反 Weibull分布函数模拟樟子松人工林的直径分布效果好 ,具有精度高、适应性强等特点 .分别建立了反 Weibull分布函数 3个参数与林分年龄及密度之间的关系方程以及直径分布与 3个参数的回归方程 ,这些方程可用来预估林分产量、出材量以及评价经营效果     

A Short Term Quality Control Tool for Biodegradable Microspheres

Accelerated in vitro release testing methodology has been developed as an indicator of product performance to be used as a discriminatory quality control (QC) technique for the release of clinical and commercial batches of biodegradable microspheres. While product performance of biodegradable microspheres can be verified by in vivo and/or in vitro experiments, such evaluation can be particularly challenging because of slow polymer degradation, resulting in extended study times, labor, and expense. Three batches of Leuprolide poly(lactic-co-glycolic acid) (PLGA) microspheres having varying morphology (process variants having different particle size and specific surface area) were manufactured by the solvent extraction/evaporation technique. Tests involving in vitro release, polymer degradation and hydration of the microspheres were performed on the three batches at 55°C. In vitro peptide release at 55°C was analyzed using a previously derived modification of the Weibull function termed the modified Weibull equation (MWE). Experimental observations and data analysis confirm excellent reproducibility studies within and between batches of the microsphere formulations demonstrating the predictability of the accelerated experiments at 55°C. The accelerated test method was also successfully able to distinguish the in vitro product performance between the three batches having varying morphology (process variants), indicating that it is a suitable QC tool to discriminate product or process variants in clinical or commercial batches of microspheres. Additionally, data analysis utilized the MWE to further quantify the differences obtained from the accelerated in vitro product performance test between process variants, thereby enhancing the discriminatory power of the accelerated methodology at 55°C.     

Temperature‐dependent phenology and growth potential of the Andean potato tuber moth,Symmetrischema tangolias (Gyen) (Lep., Gelechiidae)

The Andean potato tuber moth, Symmetrischema tangolias (Gyen) [Lepidoptera, Gelechiidae], is an economically important pest of potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) in the mid‐elevated Andean region and an invasive pest of partially global importance. Determination of the pest's population life table parameters is essential for understanding population development and growth under a variety of climates and as part of a pest risk analysis. The development, mortality and reproduction were studied in two pest populations (from Peru and Ecuador) in which cohorts of each life stage were exposed to different constant temperatures ranging from 10°C to 28°C. Using the Insect Life Cycle Modeling software, nonlinear equations were fitted to the data and an overall phenology model established to simulate life table parameters based on temperature. The temperature‐dependent development curve was statistically well described for eggs by Ratkowsky's model and for larvae and pupae by Taylor's model. Variability in development time among individuals independent of temperature was significantly described by a log‐logistic model. Temperature effects on immature mortality were described using different nonlinear models. Optimal temperature for survival was between 14° and 17°C. Temperature effects on adult senescence and oviposition time were described by simple exponential models; within‐group variability was described by a Weibull distribution function. Fecundity per female due to temperature followed a nonlinear model indicating maximum reproduction at ~17°C. The established model revealed good convergence with historical life tables established at fluctuating temperatures. The results confirm that S. tangolias is more adapted to cooler temperature than the common potato tuber moth, Phthorimaea operculella (Zeller). S. tangolias develops at temperatures within the range of 8–28.8°C with a maximum finite rate of population increase (=1.053) at 21°C. The established process‐based physiological model can be used globally to simulate life table parameters for S. tangolias based on temperature and should prove helpful for evaluating the potential establishment risk and in adjusting pest management programmes.     

Density effect, self-thinning and size distribution in Pinus densiflora Sieb. et Zucc. stands

The competition-density (C-D) effect for given times and self-thinning over time in even-aged, natural, pure stands of Pinus densiflora Sieb. et Zucc. were analyzed with the reciprocal equation of the C-D effect in self-thinning stands, and the equation describing the time-trajectory of mean stem volume and stand density. The C-D effect and self-thinning were consistently well explained by the two equations. Differences in mean stem volume and in stand density among the stands tended to merge with increasing stand age. The self-thinning line with a slope of approximately –3/2 was reached by the higher density stand prior to the medium and lower density stands. The skewness of tree height distribution showed positive values, which means that the distribution is more or less L-shaped, and in addition the skewness decreased with increasing mean tree height, which indicates that smaller trees died as the stands grew. This trend is consistent with the asymmetric (one-sided) competition hypothesis that self-thinning is driven by competition for light. The tree height distribution was analyzed using the Weibull distribution. The location parameter h _min of the Weibull distribution increased with increasing stand age, and the scale parameter a tended to increase slightly with increasing stand age. The range of the shape parameter b of the Weibull distribution corresponded to that of the skewness.     

Stand Diameter Distribution Modelling and Prediction Based on Richards Function

The objective of this study was to introduce application of the Richards equation on modelling and prediction of stand diameter distribution. The long-term repeated measurement data sets, consisted of 309 diameter frequency distributions from Chinese fir (Cunninghamia lanceolata) plantations in the southern China, were used. Also, 150 stands were used as fitting data, the other 159 stands were used for testing. Nonlinear regression method (NRM) or maximum likelihood estimates method (MLEM) were applied to estimate the parameters of models, and the parameter prediction method (PPM) and parameter recovery method (PRM) were used to predict the diameter distributions of unknown stands. Four main conclusions were obtained: (1) R distribution presented a more accurate simulation than three-parametric Weibull function; (2) the parameters p, q and r of R distribution proved to be its scale, location and shape parameters, and have a deep relationship with stand characteristics, which means the parameters of R distribution have good theoretical interpretation; (3) the ordinate of inflection point of R distribution has significant relativity with its skewness and kurtosis, and the fitted main distribution range for the cumulative diameter distribution of Chinese fir plantations was 0.4∼0.6; (4) the goodness-of-fit test showed diameter distributions of unknown stands can be well estimated by applying R distribution based on PRM or the combination of PPM and PRM under the condition that only quadratic mean DBH or plus stand age are known, and the non-rejection rates were near 80%, which are higher than the 72.33% non-rejection rate of three-parametric Weibull function based on the combination of PPM and PRM.     

Life prediction for a vacuum fluorescent display based on two improved models using the three‐parameter Weibull right approximation method

To obtain precise life information for vacuum fluorescent displays (VFDs), luminance degradation data for VFDs were collected from a group of normal life tests. Instead of exponential function, the three‐parameter Weibull right approximation method (TPWRAM) was applied to describe the luminance degradation path of optoelectronic products, and two improved models were established. One of these models calculated the average life by fitting average luminance degradation data, and the other model obtained VFD life by combining the approximation method with luminance degradation test data from each individual sample. The results indicated that the test design under normal working stress was appropriate, and the selection of censored test data was simple. The two models improved by TPWRAM both revealed the luminance decaying law for VFD, and the pseudo failure time was accurately extrapolated. It was further confirmed by comparing relative error that using the second model gave a more accurate prediction of VFD life. The improved models in this study can provide technical references for researchers and manufacturers in aspects of life prediction methodology for its development.