The epidemiology of BSE in cattle herds in Great Britain. I. Epidemiological processes,demography of cattle and approaches to control by culling.

This paper explores the key epidemiological processes and demographic factors that determined the pattern of transmission of the aetiological agent of bovine spongiform encephalopathy (BSE) in cattle herds in Great Britain (GB). The analyses presented utilize data from published and unpublished experimental studies and from the GB central database of confirmed BSE cases. We review the experimental and epidemiological evidence that has both confirmed indirect horizontal transmission via the consumption of infectious material as the major transmission route and provided information on the duration and variability of the dose-dependent incubation period of BSE in cattle. The epidemiological and genetic data pertaining to the possible existence of maternal transmission and/or genetically variable susceptibility to infection is discussed. The demography of British cattle is characterized and the impacts of key demographic features on the observed epidemic profile are discussed. In the main BSE case database, analyses reveal that BSE cases cluster significantly at both the holding and county scale. Furthermore, analysis of longitudinal patterns reveal substantial temporal within-holding correlation. Such clustering of cases suggests a highly heterogeneous infection process. The paper ends with a discussion of how analyses of spatio-temporal clustering inform the design of targeted culling programmes aimed at reducing future disease incidence. We show how the retrospective implementation of culling policies on the BSE case database allows the qualitative evaluation of policy performance, but that model predictions of future trends in case incidence are required to estimate the precise impact of any current or future programme.     

Polish Registry of Congenital Malformations - aims and organization of the registry monitoring 300 000 births a year

In 1997, the Polish Registry of Congenital Malformations (PRCM) was established, to fulfil epidemiological, prophylactic, socioeconomic and scientific functions. The PRCM is a population-based registry monitoring currently about 300 000 births a year in 13 provinces. Such a large area and population require a special organizational structure of the Registry. The PRCM Central Working Group and the computer database are located in the Department of Medical Genetics, University of Medical Sciences, Poznań. Here the data are collected, validated, encoded according to the ICD-10, and analysed. Provincial Working Groups are responsible for supervision of data collection in the given province. The PRCM staff has grown from about 250 members in 1997 to more than 400 members today. The PRCM collects information on structural defects diagnosed before the end of the second year of life. Minor anomalies are excluded from the registry. The main source of information is a registration form filled up by the physician diagnosing the anomaly. Since 2004 also electronic reporting has been possible. On 28 September 2005 there were 54 020 entries in the database concerning 33 729 children with at least one congenital malformation and 1261 control entries concerning children without malformations. The PRCM is also an important source of identification of families at genetic risk. Education of physicians and the community in the field of genetic counselling is also an important aim of the PRCM. Since 2001, the PRCM has been a member of the Eurocat. Detailed information on PRCM organization, electronic reporting, and results are available at the PRCM website (www.rejestrwad.pl).     

Using Random Forest to Improve the Downscaling of Global Livestock Census Data

Large scale, high-resolution global data on farm animal distributions are essential for spatially explicit assessments of the epidemiological, environmental and socio-economic impacts of the livestock sector. This has been the major motivation behind the development of the Gridded Livestock of the World (GLW) database, which has been extensively used since its first publication in 2007. The database relies on a downscaling methodology whereby census counts of animals in sub-national administrative units are redistributed at the level of grid cells as a function of a series of spatial covariates. The recent upgrade of GLW1 to GLW2 involved automating the processing, improvement of input data, and downscaling at a spatial resolution of 1 km per cell (5 km per cell in the earlier version). The underlying statistical methodology, however, remained unchanged. In this paper, we evaluate new methods to downscale census data with a higher accuracy and increased processing efficiency. Two main factors were evaluated, based on sample census datasets of cattle in Africa and chickens in Asia. First, we implemented and evaluated Random Forest models (RF) instead of stratified regressions. Second, we investigated whether models that predicted the number of animals per rural person (per capita) could provide better downscaled estimates than the previous approach that predicted absolute densities (animals per km²). RF models consistently provided better predictions than the stratified regressions for both continents and species. The benefit of per capita over absolute density models varied according to the species and continent. In addition, different technical options were evaluated to reduce the processing time while maintaining their predictive power. Future GLW runs (GLW 3.0) will apply the new RF methodology with optimized modelling options. The potential benefit of per capita models will need to be further investigated with a better distinction between rural and agricultural populations.     

DBCollHIV: a database system for collaborative HIV analysis in Brazil

We developed a database system for collaborative HIV analysis (DBCollHIV) in Brazil. The main purpose of our DBCollHIV project was to develop an HIV-integrated database system with analytical bioinformatics tools that would support the needs of Brazilian research groups for data storage and sequence analysis. Whenever authorized by the principal investigator, this system also allows the integration of data from different studies and/or the release of the data to the general public. The development of a database that combines sequences associated with clinical/epidemiological data is difficult without the active support of interdisciplinary investigators. A functional database that securely stores data and helps the investigator to manipulate their sequences before publication would be an attractive tool for investigators depositing their data and collaborating with other groups. DBCollHIV allows investigators to manipulate their own datasets, as well as integrating molecular and clinical HIV data, in an innovative fashion.     

p53 gene mutation: software and database.

A large number of different mutations in the p53 tumor suppressor gene have been identified in all types of cancer. As of October, 1997, this database (http:// perso.curie.fr/tsoussi ) contained >7500 mutations. Such a substantial increase since our previous reports should enable epidemiological analyses which were not previously possible. In order to analyse these new data, the UMD software has been improved. A new Web version of the UMD software enables online analysis of the database. The present report describes various improvements since the last release of the database.     

Prevalence of scoliosis in school-children from Mostar, Bosnia and Herzegovina

In the school-year 2002/2003 a prospective epidemiological study was performed with the aim of evaluating the prevalence and distribution of scoliosis in the population of schoolchildren from Mostar, Bosnia and Herzegovina. The general check-up of primary-school children covered a total of 2,517 children aged 7-14. The children in which at least one positive symptom of scoliosis was found were directed to undergo orthopedic examination and--if indicated--radiography. Incorrect posture was noted in 33.4% of children, and 11.8% of children were sent to orthopedic specialist examination. The prevalence of structural scoliosis amounted to 3.1%, with the spine curvature threshold being 10 degrees. In eight children (0.32%; 1 boy and 7 girls) a curvature of 20 degrees or more was diagnosed. The most common type of curvature was the thoracal (39%) and the thoraco-lumbar (39%) while 14 children had a double curvature (17.8%). A scoliosis was detected due to here performed check-up in 83.5% of children with scoliosis. No case of serious spine deformity (45 degree or more) was recorded, due to regular general check-ups taking place biannually in this population.     

p53 gene mutation: software and database.

A large number of different mutations in the tumor suppressor gene p53 gene have been identified in all types of cancer. As of September 1995, this database contains over 4200 mutations. This substantial increase since our previous report can enable epidemiological analyses which were not previously possible. In order to capture all these new data, the software permitting analysis has been improved. This report describes the various improvements since first release of the database.     

The Geographical Distribution and Burden of Trachoma in Africa

Background

There remains a lack of epidemiological data on the geographical distribution of trachoma to support global mapping and scale up of interventions for the elimination of trachoma. The Global Atlas of Trachoma (GAT) was launched in 2011 to address these needs and provide standardised, updated and accessible maps. This paper uses data included in the GAT to describe the geographical distribution and burden of trachoma in Africa.

Methods

Data assembly used structured searches of published and unpublished literature to identify cross-sectional epidemiological data on the burden of trachoma since 1980. Survey data were abstracted into a standardised database and mapped using geographical information systems (GIS) software. The characteristics of all surveys were summarized by country according to data source, time period, and survey methodology. Estimates of the current population at risk were calculated for each country and stratified by endemicity class.

Results

At the time of writing, 1342 records are included in the database representing surveys conducted between 1985 and 2012. These data were provided by direct contact with national control programmes and academic researchers (67%), peer-reviewed publications (17%) and unpublished reports or theses (16%). Prevalence data on active trachoma are available in 29 of the 33 countries in Africa classified as endemic for trachoma, and 1095 (20.6%) districts have representative data collected through population-based prevalence surveys. The highest prevalence of active trachoma and trichiasis remains in the Sahel area of West Africa and Savannah areas of East and Central Africa and an estimated 129.4 million people live in areas of Africa confirmed to be trachoma endemic.

Conclusion

The Global Atlas of Trachoma provides the most contemporary and comprehensive summary of the burden of trachoma within Africa. The GAT highlights where future mapping is required and provides an important planning tool for scale-up and surveillance of trachoma control.     

Inferences about the global scenario of human T-cell lymphotropic virus type 1 infection using data mining of viral sequences

Human T-cell lymphotropic virus type 1 (HTLV-1) is mainly associated with two diseases: tropical spastic paraparesis/HTLV-1-associated myelopathy (TSP/HAM) and adult T-cell leukaemia/lymphoma. This retrovirus infects five-10 million individuals throughout the world. Previously, we developed a database that annotates sequence data from GenBank and the present study aimed to describe the clinical, molecular and epidemiological scenarios of HTLV-1 infection through the stored sequences in this database. A total of 2,545 registered complete and partial sequences of HTLV-1 were collected and 1,967 (77.3%) of those sequences represented unique isolates. Among these isolates, 93% contained geographic origin information and only 39% were related to any clinical status. A total of 1,091 sequences contained information about the geographic origin and viral subtype and 93% of these sequences were identified as subtype “a”. Ethnicity data are very scarce. Regarding clinical status data, 29% of the sequences were generated from TSP/HAM and 67.8% from healthy carrier individuals. Although the data mining enabled some inferences about specific aspects of HTLV-1 infection to be made, due to the relative scarcity of data of available sequences, it was not possible to delineate a global scenario of HTLV-1 infection.     

Injury incidence and risk factors in youth soccer players: a systematic literature review. Part I: epidemiological analysis

The analysis of the epidemiological data and the risk factors underlying injuries is crucial to promote prevention strategies in young soccer players. The objective of the present study was to perform a systematic literature review on the epidemiological data, described in the first part, and injury risk factors, presented in the second part. After electronic database searching, articles in line with the inclusion criteria were selected for the systematic review. Epidemiological data were extracted and discussed in this first part of the review. Data were grouped as follows: injury incidence, injury severity, and re-injury, injury types, injury mechanisms, and anatomical location. The principal findings of this first part of the review are as follows: (1) injury incidence is higher in older players and during matches than during training; (2) sex and maturity status may increase risk of injury; (3) male soccer players are more prone to muscle strains and ligament sprains while female players suffer more ligament sprains; (4) most injuries are located in the ankle and thigh in young male soccer players, and in the ankle and knee in female players; (5) severe injuries are less frequent but the incidence increases in older players. Re-injuries represent only a small percentage. Although soccer is considered a safe sport, many injuries are recorded in young soccer players every year. Injury predisposition changes in relation to age, sex, and biological age. Coaches and physical trainers should be aware of individual differences in order to promote prevention strategies and personalised training.     

On the issue of transmissibility of Alzheimer disease

Results from recent experiments with rodents imply that Alzheimer disease might be inducible by seeding Aβ peptides into recipient animals. In respect to this new experimental data, public health aspects as well as epidemiological data have to be reevaluated. In this article, the available experimental and epidemiological data are reviewed.     

Epidemiological studies based on medical and administrative databases : a potential strength in France

Population-based epidemiological cohorts may include nowadays hundreds of thousands of subjects, followed-up during decades. France has a major potential strength: nationwide medical and social databases set up for administrative purposes. The main databases useful for epidemiology are the social security database which contains individual medical data from different sources, and the retirement fund database on employment and social benefits. These databases have several advantages: they cover the whole French population, with no lost to follow-up, data are often of good quality and it is possible to link them with individual surveys. However medical data are not always ascertained and an important methodological and practical work has to be done, and some legal and practical problems have to be solved for an optimal use.     

Can Global Variation of Nasopharynx Cancer Be Retrieved from the Combined Analyses of IARC Cancer Information (CIN) Databases?

Background

The international nasopharynx cancer (NPC) burdens are masked due to the lack of integrated studies that examine epidemiological data based on up-to-date international disease databases such as the Cancer Information (CIN) databases provided by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC).

Methods

By analyzing the most recently updated NPC epidemiological data available from IARC, we tried to retrieve the worldwide NPC burden and patterns from combined analysis with GLOBOCAN2008 and the Cancer Incidence in Five Continents (CI5) databases. We provide age-standardized rates (ASR) for NPC mortality in 20 highest cancer registries from GLOBOCAN2008 and the World Health Organization (WHO) mortality databases, respectively. However, NPC incidence data can not be retrieved since it is not individually listed in CI5 database. The trend of NPC mortality was investigated with Joinpoint analysis in the selected countries/regions with high ASR.

Results

GLOBOCAN 2008 revealed that the highest NPC incidence rates in 2008 were in registries from South-Eastern Asia, Micronesia and Southern Africa with Malaysia, Indonesia and Singapore ranking the top 3. WHO mortality database analysis revealed that China Hong Kong, Singapore and Malta ranks the top 3 regions with the highest 5-year mortality rates.

Conclusions

NPC mortality rate is about 2–3 times higher in male than that in female, and shows decrease tendency in those selected countries/regions during the analyzed periods. However, the integrated analyses of the current IARC CIN databases may not be suitable to retrieve epidemiological data of NPC. Much effort is required to improve the local cancer entry and regional death-reporting systems so as to aid similar studies.     

Epidemic predictions in an imperfect world: modelling disease spread with partial data

‘Big-data’ epidemic models are being increasingly used to influence government policy to help with control and eradication of infectious diseases. In the case of livestock, detailed movement records have been used to parametrize realistic transmission models. While livestock movement data are readily available in the UK and other countries in the EU, in many countries around the world, such detailed data are not available. By using a comprehensive database of the UK cattle trade network, we implement various sampling strategies to determine the quantity of network data required to give accurate epidemiological predictions. It is found that by targeting nodes with the highest number of movements, accurate predictions on the size and spatial spread of epidemics can be made. This work has implications for countries such as the USA, where access to data is limited, and developing countries that may lack the resources to collect a full dataset on livestock movements.     

A new phylodynamic model of Mycobacterium bovis transmission in a multi-host system uncovers the role of the unobserved reservoir

Multi-host pathogens are particularly difficult to control, especially when at least one of the hosts acts as a hidden reservoir. Deep sequencing of densely sampled pathogens has the potential to transform this understanding, but requires analytical approaches that jointly consider epidemiological and genetic data to best address this problem. While there has been considerable success in analyses of single species systems, the hidden reservoir problem is relatively under-studied. A well-known exemplar of this problem is bovine Tuberculosis, a disease found in British and Irish cattle caused by Mycobacterium bovis, where the Eurasian badger has long been believed to act as a reservoir but remains of poorly quantified importance except in very specific locations. As a result, the effort that should be directed at controlling disease in badgers is unclear. Here, we analyse densely collected epidemiological and genetic data from a cattle population but do not explicitly consider any data from badgers. We use a simulation modelling approach to show that, in our system, a model that exploits available cattle demographic and herd-to-herd movement data, but only considers the ability of a hidden reservoir to generate pathogen diversity, can be used to choose between different epidemiological scenarios. In our analysis, a model where the reservoir does not generate any diversity but contributes to new infections at a local farm scale are significantly preferred over models which generate diversity and/or spread disease at broader spatial scales. While we cannot directly attribute the role of the reservoir to badgers based on this analysis alone, the result supports the hypothesis that under current cattle control regimes, infected cattle alone cannot sustain M. bovis circulation. Given the observed close phylogenetic relationship for the bacteria taken from cattle and badgers sampled near to each other, the most parsimonious hypothesis is that the reservoir is the infected badger population. More broadly, our approach demonstrates that carefully constructed bespoke models can exploit the combination of genetic and epidemiological data to overcome issues of extreme data bias, and uncover important general characteristics of transmission in multi-host pathogen systems.     

An epidemiological analysis of equine welfare data from regulatory inspections by the official competent authorities

Determining welfare status in a population is the first step in efforts to improve welfare. The primary objective of this study was to explore a new epidemiological approach for analysis of data from official competent authorities that pertain to compliance with animal welfare legislation. We reviewed data already routinely collected as part of Swedish official animal welfare inspections for 2010–13, using a checklist containing 45 checkpoints (CPs). These covered animal-, resource- and management-based measures of equine welfare. The animal-based CPs were measures that directly related to the animal and included social contact, body condition, hoof condition and cleanliness. Non-compliance with one or more of the animal-based CPs was used as a binary outcome of poor equine welfare; 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated using the exact binomial distribution. Associations were determined using multivariable logistic regression, adjusting for clustering on premises. Resource- and management-based CPs (model inputs) were reduced by principal component analysis. Other input factors included premises characteristics (e.g. size, location) and inspection characteristics (e.g. type of inspection). There were 30 053 premises with horses from 21 counties registered by the Swedish Board of Agriculture. In total 13 321 inspections of premises were conducted at 28.4% (n=8532) of all registered premises. For random inspections, the premises-prevalence of poor equine welfare was 9.5% (95% CI 7.5, 11.9). Factors associated with poor equine welfare were non-compliance with requirements for supervision, care or feeding of horses, facility design, personnel, stable hygiene, pasture and exercise area maintenance, as well as the owner not being notified of the inspection, a previous complaint or deficiency, spring compared with autumn, and not operating as a professional equine business. Horses at premises compliant with stabling and shelter requirements had significantly better welfare if they also complied with documentation requirements. We present a novel approach for analysis of equine welfare data from regulatory inspections by the official competent authorities, and propose on-going analyses and benchmarking of trends in animal-based measures over time. We also suggest how such a database could be further improved to facilitate future epidemiological analyses of risk factors associated with poor equine welfare. The study has implications for other competent authorities and researchers collaborating in the area of animal welfare epidemiology.     

An integrated database on ticks and tick-borne zoonoses in the tropics and subtropics with special reference to developing and emerging countries

Tick-borne zoonoses (TBZ) are emerging diseases worldwide. A large amount of information (e.g. case reports, results of epidemiological surveillance, etc.) is dispersed through various reference sources (ISI and non-ISI journals, conference proceedings, technical reports, etc.). An integrated database-derived from the ICTTD-3 project ( http://www.icttd.nl )-was developed in order to gather TBZ records in the (sub-)tropics, collected both by the authors and collaborators worldwide. A dedicated website ( http://www.tickbornezoonoses.org ) was created to promote collaboration and circulate information. Data collected are made freely available to researchers for analysis by spatial methods, integrating mapped ecological factors for predicting TBZ risk. The authors present the assembly process of the TBZ database: the compilation of an updated list of TBZ relevant for (sub-)tropics, the database design and its structure, the method of bibliographic search, the assessment of spatial precision of geo-referenced records. At the time of writing, 725 records extracted from 337 publications related to 59 countries in the (sub-)tropics, have been entered in the database. TBZ distribution maps were also produced. Imported cases have been also accounted for. The most important datasets with geo-referenced records were those on Spotted Fever Group rickettsiosis in Latin-America and Crimean-Congo Haemorrhagic Fever in Africa. The authors stress the need for international collaboration in data collection to update and improve the database. Supervision of data entered remains always necessary. Means to foster collaboration are discussed. The paper is also intended to describe the challenges encountered to assemble spatial data from various sources and to help develop similar data collections.