Do asynchronies in extinction debt affect the structure of trophic networks? A case study of antagonistic butterfly larvae–plant networks

Habitat loss and fragmentation affect species richness in fragmented habitats and can lead to immediate or time‐delayed species extinctions. Asynchronies in extinction and extinction debt between interacting species may have severe effects on ecological networks. However, these effects remain largely unknown. We evaluated the effects of habitat patch and landscape changes on antagonistic butterfly larvae–plant trophic networks in Mediterranean grasslands in which previous studies had shown the existence of extinction debt in plants but not in butterflies. We sampled current species richness of habitat‐specialist and generalist butterflies and vascular plants in 26 grasslands. We assessed the direct effects of historical and current patch and landscape characteristics on species richness and on butterfly larvae–plant trophic network metrics and robustness. Although positive species‐ and interactions–area relationships were found in all networks, structure and robustness was only affected by patch and landscape changes in networks involving the subset of butterfly specialists. Larger patches had more species (butterflies and host plants) and interactions but also more compartments, which decreased network connectance but increased network stability. Moreover, most likely due to the rescue effect, patch connectivity increased host‐plant species (but not butterfly) richness and total links, and network robustness in specialist networks. On the other hand, patch area loss decreased robustness in specialist butterfly larvae–plant networks and made them more prone to collapse against host plant extinctions. Finally, in all butterfly larvae–plant networks we also detected a past patch and landscape effect on network asymmetry, which indicates that there were different extinction rates and extinction debts for butterflies and host plants. We conclude that asynchronies in extinction and extinction debt in butterfly–plant networks provoked by patch and landscape changes caused changes in species richness and network links in all networks, as well as changes in network structure and robustness in specialist networks.     

Patch quality and context, but not patch number, drive multi-scale colonization dynamics in experimental aquatic landscapes

Colonization and extinction are primary drivers of local population dynamics, community structure, and spatial patterns of biological diversity. Existing paradigms of island biogeography, metapopulation biology, and metacommunity ecology, as well as habitat management and conservation biology based on those paradigms, emphasize patch size, number, and isolation as primary characteristics influencing colonization and extinction. Habitat selection theory suggests that patch quality could rival size, number, and isolation in determining rates of colonization and resulting community structure. We used naturally colonized experimental landscapes to address four issues: (a) how do colonizing aquatic beetles respond to variation in patch number, (b) how do they respond to variation in patch quality, (c) does patch context affect colonization dynamics, and (d) at what spatial scales do beetles respond to habitat variation? Increasing patch number had no effect on per patch colonization rates, while patch quality and context were critical in determining colonization rates and resulting patterns of abundance and species richness at multiple spatial scales. We graphically illustrate how variation in immigration rates driven by perceived predation risk (habitat quality) can further modify dynamics of the equilibrium theory of island biogeography beyond predator-driven effects on extinction rates. Our data support the importance of patch quality and context as primary determinants of colonization rate, occupancy, abundance, and resulting patterns of species richness, and reinforce the idea that management of metapopulations for species preservation, and metacommunities for local and regional diversity, should incorporate habitat quality into the predictive equation.     

Nymphalid butterfly dispersal among forest fragments at Serra da Canastra National Park,Brazil

Organisms must possess good dispersal ability to persist in fragmented landscapes, as extinction in habitat patches is frequent and patches must be re-colonised to keep viable metapopulations. Thus, metapopulation maintenance is dependent on patch size and distance, although these affect species differently. In order to evaluate the ability of Nymphalid butterfly species to live in naturally fragmented small forest fragments we marked and released 3,415 butterflies in 16 of these areas separated in two networks at the Serra da Canastra National Park (PNSC), south-eastern Brazil. Subsequent recaptures in different forest fragments enabled us to assess the dispersal rates and distances for several Nymphalid species. Seventeen butterflies from 11 out of the 50 species captured were directly observed to disperse from 500 m to 870 m. Dispersal rates varied between 1 and 7% of the marked individuals and were directly correlated to the mean forewing length of each butterfly species population. The connectivity of the forest fragments through creeks appear to facilitate butterfly dispersal among fragments within micro-basins, as only one out of 50 dispersing individuals was observed to fly from one micro-basin to the other. Several species had viable populations in the small-fragment network. The distance between fragments is crucial as the coarser fragment network was unlikely to sustain viable populations of most of the species. The protection of large forest fragments located outside of the PNSC may be necessary to promote colonization of the smaller forest fragments inside the Park.     

Colonization–extinction dynamics of epixylic lichens along a decay gradient in a dynamic landscape

Metapopulation models are often used for understanding and predicting species dynamics in fragmented landscapes. Several models have been proposed depending on e.g. the relative importance of patch dynamics on the metapopulation dynamics. Dead wood is a dynamic substrate patch, and species that are confined to such patches have experienced a high degree of habitat loss in managed forests. Little is, however, known about how the population dynamics of epixylic species are affected by the fast dynamics of their substrate patches. We quantified the effect of local patch conditions and metapopulation processes on colonizations and extinctions of epixylic lichen species in a managed boreal forest landscape. This was done by twice surveying seven lichen metapopulations on 293 stumps in 30 stands of ages covering the duration of the dynamic patches (stumps). We also investigated the relative importance of local stochastic extinctions from stumps that remained available, and deterministic extinctions due to stump surface disappearance. We found importance of a decay gradient, surrounding metapopulation size, and local population sizes, in driving the colonization–extinction dynamics of epixylic lichens. The species were sorted along the stump decay gradient. Increasing surrounding metapopulation size was associated with increased colonization rates, and increasing local population size decreased lichen extinction rates. Finally, both local stochastic extinctions and deterministic extinctions due to patch disappearance occur, confirming that the long‐term persistence of epixylic lichens depends on colonization rates that compensate for stochastic population extinctions as well as deterministic extinctions.     

Habitat patch size alters the importance of dispersal for species diversity in an experimental freshwater community

Increased dispersal of individuals among discrete habitat patches should increase the average number of species present in each local habitat patch. However, experimental studies have found variable effects of dispersal on local species richness. Priority effects, predators, and habitat heterogeneity have been proposed as mechanisms that limit the effect of dispersal on species richness. However, the size of a habitat patch could affect how dispersal regulates the number of species able to persist. We investigated whether habitat size interacted with dispersal rate to affect the number of species present in local habitats. We hypothesized that increased dispersal rates would positively affect local species richness more in small habitats than in large habitats, because rare species would be protected from demographic extinction. To test the interaction between dispersal rate and habitat size, we factorially manipulated the size of experimental ponds and dispersal rates, using a model community of freshwater zooplankton. We found that high‐dispersal rates enhanced local species richness in small experimental ponds, but had no effect in large experimental ponds. Our results suggest that there is a trade‐off between patch connectivity (a mediator of dispersal rates) and patch size, providing context for understanding the variability observed in dispersal effects among natural communities, as well as for developing conservation and management plans in an increasingly fragmented world.     

Strengthened insectivory in a temperate fragmented forest

Habitat fragmentation modifies ecological patterns and processes through changes in species richness and abundance. In the coastal Maulino forest, central Chile, both species richness and abundance of insectivorous birds increases in forest fragments compared to continuous forest. Through a field experiment, we examined larvae predation in fragmented forests. Higher richness and abundance of birds foraging at forest fragments translated into more insect larvae preyed upon in forest fragments than in continuous forest. The assessed level of insectivory in forest fragments agrees with lower herbivory levels in forest fragments. This pattern strongly suggests the strengthening of food interactions web in forest fragments of coastal Maulino forest.Electronic Supplementary Material Supplementary material is available for this article at and is accessible for authorized users.     

Diversity of gall wasps (Hymenoptera: Cynipidae) associated with oak trees (Fagaceae: <Emphasis Type="Italic">Quercus</Emphasis>) in a fragmented landscape in Mexico

Habitat fragmentation reduces the available habitat area and increases both the distance between fragments and the amount of fragment edges. Therefore, there are more probabilities of plant population size reduction and species extinction. In the same way, biotic and abiotic changes associated with forest fragmentation can dramatically alter plant growth and phenological patterns. We conducted a 3-year study to analyze effects of habitat fragmentation and seasonal variation on host plant quality (quantity of leaves, diameter at breast height, tree height), gall abundance and species richness in a temperate oak forest. Our results show that host plant quality was significantly higher in isolated oaks and small fragments, increasing the abundance and species richness of oak gall wasp species in most fragmented habitats. Oak canopy cover is altered by forest fragmentation, there being higher production of leaves on trees that are more exposed to fragmentation, and can provide important resources for maintaining gall wasp species diversity in a fragmented landscape. We found higher gall wasp richness and abundance in autumn than in the spring, which matches with the higher quantity of leaves in this season.     

Vegetation dynamics following resource manipulations in herb-rich woodland

Changes in species richness, turnover, composition and above-ground biomass of herb-rich woodland were documented following fertilizer application and water addition over three growing seasons. Addition of fertilizer significantly reduced species richness relative to unmanipulated control and water addition plots after 3 years. This change coincided with significant increases in biomass, which were largely due to increased growth of exotic annual grasses. The reductions in richness observed in the fertilized plots were a consequence of both lower rates of local colonization and enhanced rates of local extinction of the resident species. Species loss was not random; native species were lost after nutrient addition whereas exotic species were not. Nutrient limitation was more important for species coexistence in these communities than was water availability.     

Colonization Credit in Restored Wet Heathlands

Although human‐driven landscape modification is generally characterized by habitat destruction and fragmentation, it may also result in the creation of new habitat patches, providing conditions conducive to spontaneous colonization. In this article, we propose the concept of “colonization credit” (i.e., the number of species yet to colonize a patch, following landscape changes) as a framework to evaluate the success of colonization, in terms of species richness, in new/restored habitats, taking into account the spatial structure of landscapes. The method mirrors similar approaches used to estimate extinction debt in the context of habitat fragmentation, that is, comparisons, between old and new habitat patches, of the relationships among spatial patch metrics and patch species richness. We applied our method to the case of spontaneous colonization of newly created habitat patches suitable for wet heathland plant communities in South Belgium. Colonization credit was estimated for the total species richness, the specialist species richness, and the species richness of three emergent groups (EGs) of specialist species, delineated on the basis of dispersal traits. No significant colonization credit was identified either in patches created 25–55 years ago or in those created within the past 25 years, with the exception of species from our first EG (mostly anemochorous species with long‐term persistent seed bank). However, the differential response of species in that first EG could not be explained through their characteristic life history traits. The results of this study are encouraging and suggest that deliberate, directed restoration activities could yield positive developments in a relatively short period of time.     

How Do Landscape Structure,Management and Habitat Quality Drive the Colonization of Habitat Patches by the Dryad Butterfly (Lepidoptera: Satyrinae) in Fragmented Grassland?

Most studies dealing with species distribution patterns on fragmented landscapes focus on the characteristics of habitat patches that influence local occurrence and abundance, but they tend to neglect the question of what drives colonization of previously unoccupied patches. In a study of the dryad butterfly, we combined classical approaches derived from metapopulation theory and landscape ecology to investigate the factors driving colonization from a recent refugium. In three consecutive transect surveys, we recorded the presence and numbers of imagos in 27 patches of xerothermic grassland and 26 patches of wet meadow. Among the predictors affecting the occurrence and abundance of the dryad, we considered environmental variables reflecting (i) habitat patch quality (e.g., goldenrod cover, shrub density, vegetation height); (ii) factors associated with habitat spatial structure (patch size, patch isolation and fragmentation); and (iii) features of patch surroundings (100-m buffers around patches) that potentially pose barriers or provide corridors. Patch colonization by the dryad was strongly limited by the distance from the species refugium in the region; there was a slight positive effect of shrub density in this respect. Butterfly abundance increased in smaller and more fragmented habitat patches; it was negatively impacted by invasive goldenrod cover, and positively influenced by the density of watercourses in patch surroundings. Nectar plant availability was positively related to species abundance in xerothermic grassland, while in wet meadow the effect was the reverse. We conclude that dryad colonization of our study area is very recent, since the most important factor limiting colonization was distance from the refugium, while the habitat quality of target patches had less relevance. In order to preserve the species, conservation managers should focus on enhancing the quality of large patches and should also direct their efforts on smaller and more fragmented ones, including those with relatively low resource availability, because such habitat fragments have an important role to play for specialist species.     

Host patch traits have scale-dependent effects on diversity in a stickleback parasite metacommunity

Many metacommunities are distributed across habitat patches that are themselves aggregated into groups. Perhaps the clearest example of this nested metacommunity structure comes from multi-species parasite assemblages, which occupy individual hosts that are aggregated into host populations. At both spatial scales, we expect parasite community diversity in a given patch (either individual host or population) to depend on patch characteristics that affect colonization rates and species sorting. But, are these patch effects consistent across spatial scales? Or, do different processes govern the distribution of parasite community diversity among individual hosts, versus among host patches? To answer these questions, we document the distribution of parasite richness among host individuals and among populations in a metapopulation of threespine stickleback Gasterosteus aculeatus. We find some host traits (host size, gape width) are associated with increased parasite richness at both spatial scales. Other patch characteristics affect parasite richness only among individuals (sex), or among populations (lake size, lake area, elevation and population mean heterozygosity). These results demonstrate that some rules governing parasite richness in this metacommunity are shared across scales, while others are scale-specific.     

Metapopulation dynamics of a beetle species confined to burned forest sites in a managed forest region

Despite increasing awareness of the theoretical importance of habitat dynamics on metapopulations, only a few empirical studies have been conducted. We aimed to increase our understanding of how patch size, dynamics and connectivity affect colonization–extinction dynamics and the occurrence patterns of a beetle (Stephanopachys linearis), which breeds only in burned trees, existing as dynamic habitat patches that have become rare in managed forest landscapes. We assessed species’ presence/absence twice in all known habitat patches (i.e. > 1 ha sites where forest fires had occurred during the previous 2–15 yr) in a 200 × 150 km region of central Sweden, dominated by managed boreal forest. Evaluated over six years, the colonization rate was 47% and the local extinction risk was 65%. Probability of colonization increased with patch size (number of suitable trees in a site) and connectivity to occupied patches within 30 km, and decreased with increasing time since fire. Local extinction risk decreased with habitat patch size but increased, unexpectedly, with connectivity. Occurrence increased with patch size and decreased with increasing time since fire. At a regional scale, S. linearis tracks the fire dynamics by colonising sites with burned trees and by becoming extinct at rates which make the species rare at sites where burnt trees are more than eight years old. In managed boreal forest landscapes, a large proportion of sites may be created by prescribed burning (in our study area: 82%), and consequently human decisions strongly affect the future amount of habitat for fire‐dependent species and its spatial distribution. Stephanopachys linearis uses burned sites more often if more trees are retained and, to some extent, if sites are concentrated in those parts of a region that already support high population densities of the species.     

Metapopulation extinction thresholds in rain forest remnants

Although habitat fragmentation is a major threat to global biodiversity, the demographic mechanisms underlying species loss from tropical forest remnants remain largely unexplored. In particular, no studies at the landscape scale have quantified fragmentation's impacts on colonization, extinction, and local population growth simultaneously. In central Amazonia, we conducted a multiyear demographic census of 292 populations of two leaf-inhabiting (i.e., epiphyllous) bryophyte species transplanted from continuous forest into a network of 10 study sites ranging from 1, 10, and 100 to > 10,000 ha in size. All populations experienced significantly positive local growth (lambda > 1) and a nearly constant per-generational extinction probability (15%). However, experimental leaf patches in reserves of > or = 100 ha experienced nearly double (48%) the colonization probability observed in small reserves (27%), suggesting that the proximate cause of epiphyll species loss in small fragments (< or = 10 ha) is reduced colonization. Nonetheless, populations of small fragments exhibit rates of colonization above patch extinction, positive local growth, and low temporal variation, which are features that should theoretically reduce the probability of extinction. This result suggests that for habitat-tracking metapopulations subject to frequent and stochastic turnover events, including epiphylls, colonization/extinction ratios must be maintained well above unity to ensure metapopulation persistence.     

Effects of fragmentation on vascular plant diversity in a Mediterranean forest archipelago

Abstract

We analysed the effects of patch size and isolation on vascular plants in Quercus cerris forest surrounding Rome (Italy). We randomly sampled 96 plots within 18 forest patches with homogeneous environmental variables; the patches ranged from 1.4 ha to 424.5 ha and were divided into four size classes. We performed the analyses at the patch level using linear regression. At the size class level, the analysis of species richness response to fragmentation (area effect) was performed with ANOVA, while the effect on community composition was analysed by means of PERMANOVA. We also investigated which species could be used as indicator species for each size class. Lastly, to evaluate the advantages of conserving several small patches as opposed to few large ones, we used a cumulative area approach ranking forest fragments. The correlation between species richness and patch area was positive, with a significant difference between the “large” and “small” size classes, while analysis on community composition showed that “large” versus “medium” and “large” versus “small” were significantly different. Nemoral species were recognised as indicators in the “large” class, and shrub and edge species in the “small” class. Our results indicate that 10 ha may be a suitable forest size threshold for planning and conservation.     

What saplings can tell us about forest expansion over natural grasslands

Questions: 1. Do the species composition, richness and diversity of sapling communities vary significantly in differently sized patches? 2. Do forest patches of different sizes differ in woody plant colonization patterns? Location: São Francisco de Paula, Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil, 29°28'S,50°13'W. Methods: Three woody vegetation types, differing in structural development (patch size) and recovering for 10 years from cattle and burning disturbances, were sampled on grassland. We analysed the composition and complexity of the woody sapling communities, through relative abundance, richness and diversity patterns. We also evaluated recruitment status (residents vs. colonizers) of species in communities occurring in different forest patch size classes. Results : 1. There is a compositional gradient in sapling communities strongly associated with forest patch area. 2. Richness and diversity are positively correlated to patch area, but only in poorly structured patches; large patches present richness and diversity values similar to small patches. 3. Resident to colonizer abundance ratio increases from nurse plants to large patches. The species number proportion between residents and colonizers is similar in small and large patches and did not differ between these patch types. 4. Large patches presented a high number of exclusive species, while nurse plants and small patches did not. Conclusions: Woody plant communities in Araucaria forest patches are associated with patch structure development. Richness and diversity patterns are linked to patch colonization patterns. Generalist species colonize the understorey of nurse plants and small patches; resident species cannot recruit many new individuals. In large patches, sapling recruitment by resident adults precludes the immigration of new species into the patches, limiting richness and diversity.     

Extinction-colonization dynamics and host-plant choice in butterfly metapopulations

Species living in highly fragmented landscapes often occur as metapopulations with frequent population turnover. Turnover rate is known to depend on ecological factors, such as population size and connectivity, but it may also be influenced by the phenotypic and genotypic composition of populations. The Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in Finland uses two host-plant species that vary in their relative abundances among distinct habitat patches (dry meadows) in a large network of approximately 1,700 patches. We found no effect of host species use on local extinction. In contrast, population establishment was strongly influenced by the match between the host species composition of an empty habitat patch and the relative host use by larvae in previous years in the habitat patches that were well connected to the target patch. This "colonization effect" could be due to spatially variable plant acceptability or resistance or to spatially variable insect oviposition preference or larval performance. We show that spatial variation in adult oviposition preference occurs at the relevant spatial scale and that the other possible causes of the colonization effect can be discounted. We conclude that the colonization effect is generated by host preference influencing the movement patterns of ovipositing females. Migrant females with dissimilar host preferences have different perceptions of relative patch quality, which influences their likelihood of colonizing patches with particular host composition.     

Understory bird communities in Amazonian rainforest fragments: species turnover through 25 years post-isolation in recovering landscapes

Inferences about species loss following habitat conversion are typically drawn from short-term surveys, which cannot reconstruct long-term temporal dynamics of extinction and colonization. A long-term view can be critical, however, to determine the stability of communities within fragments. Likewise, landscape dynamics must be considered, as second growth structure and overall forest cover contribute to processes in fragments. Here we examine bird communities in 11 Amazonian rainforest fragments of 1-100 ha, beginning before the fragments were isolated in the 1980s, and continuing through 2007. Using a method that accounts for imperfect detection, we estimated extinction and colonization based on standardized mist-net surveys within discreet time intervals (1-2 preisolation samples and 4-5 post-isolation samples). Between preisolation and 2007, all fragments lost species in an area-dependent fashion, with loss of as few as <10% of preisolation species from 100-ha fragments, but up to 70% in 1-ha fragments. Analysis of individual time intervals revealed that the 2007 result was not due to gradual species loss beginning at isolation; both extinction and colonization occurred in every time interval. In the last two samples, 2000 and 2007, extinction and colonization were approximately balanced. Further, 97 of 101 species netted before isolation were detected in at least one fragment in 2007. Although a small subset of species is extremely vulnerable to fragmentation, and predictably goes extinct in fragments, developing second growth in the matrix around fragments encourages recolonization in our landscapes. Species richness in these fragments now reflects local turnover, not long-term attrition of species. We expect that similar processes could be operating in other fragmented systems that show unexpectedly low extinction.     

Does variation in patch use among butterfly species contribute to nestedness at fine spatial scales?

A nested pattern occurs whenever the species observed in depauperate habitat patches are a subset of those found in more species‐rich patches. Ecologists have documented many instances of nestedness caused by population‐level processes such as colonization and extinction at biogeographic scales. However, few researchers have examined whether nestedness may exist at fine scales due to the ways in which individual organisms discriminate among potential habitat patches. In 1999, we experimentally fragmented an old‐field habitat into patches of varying size to test whether nestedness could exist on a fine spatial scale. Five treatments of differing patch size were replicated five times in a Latin square design by selectively mowing 15×15 m² plots within an old‐field (patch areas: 225, 180, 135, 90, and 45 m²). Specifically, we tested whether butterflies foraging within a network of patches differing in area conformed to a nested subset structure. We also classified species according to (1) their flight height while foraging (high or low), and (2) their adult habitat breadth (ubiquitous, general, or restricted) to determine whether nestedness could be explained by difference in species’ tendency to discriminate among patches differing in area.
We found significant evidence that a community of foraging Lepidoptera conformed to a nested subset structure based on the difference between the observed nestedness within the butterfly community and the nestedness obtained from randomly generated species presence/absence matrices. Poisson regression analyses demonstrated that high‐flying, habitat‐restricted species avoided the smallest patches (90 and 45 m²) in favor of larger remnants, whereas low‐flying, habitat generalists used all patch sizes. Thus, our study is one of the first to demonstrate that nestedness among species subsets can be observed at fine spatial scales (within a single 1.5 hectare field) and may be maintained by species behavioral differences: discriminating species (i.e. high‐flying, habitat restricted) avoided the smallest patches, and less discriminating species (i.e. low‐flying, ubiquitous) were distributed throughout the field without regard to patch size. Our results also suggest that nestedness should be viewed as yet another scalar pattern in ecology, generated by variation in patch use by individuals at fine‐scales as well as the more traditionally invoked processes of extinction and colonization of species at broad‐scales.     

Host selection and responses to forest fragmentation in acorn weevils: inferences from dynamic occupancy models

Prior studies on species‐specific responses to habitat alteration have demonstrated that niche breadth is positively associated with patch occupancy rates in landscapes fragmented by agriculture. However, these studies generally have focused on vertebrates and relied upon data collected at a single point in time, neglecting dynamic processes that could alter inferences. We studied the effects of host selection and forest fragmentation on population dynamics of acorn weevils Curculio, the primary insect seed predators of oaks in North America. Detection/non‐detection data were collected from 174 red and white oaks in 19 forested fragments from 2005–2008. We used dynamic multi‐season site‐occupancy models within a Bayesian framework to explore variation in patch (tree‐level) occupancy dynamics of three species of weevils that vary in their specialization, i.e. their relative selection of red and white oak as hosts: C. pardalis (white oak specialist), C. sulcatulus (generalist) and C. proboscideus (generalist). Contrary to expectations, the specialist exhibited greater estimated rates of occupancy than generalists. However, red oak trees occupied by the white oak specialist appeared to function as sink populations maintained by frequent colonization following local extinction. Specialists also exhibited greater relative variation in occupancy and relative abundance on their host trees among years. Generalists exhibited lower local extinction and colonization rates than the specialist. Occupancy and vital rates of weevils on a host tree increased with acorn production and were significantly influenced by neighborhood forest density. Our results suggest that across much of their range in the eastern United States acorn weevils exist in fragmented, temporally dynamic landscapes, with generalists occurring on a lower proportion of usable trees but buffered by access to more suitable patches and greater patch‐specific survival. More generally, our results demonstrate that estimates of specialization derived from occupancy data may be misleading in the absence of patch‐specific information on vital rates.     

Evidence for a possible extinction debt in Swiss wetland specialist plants

1. Habitat loss leading to smaller patch sizes and decreasing connectivity is a major threat to global biodiversity. While some species vanish immediately after a change in habitat conditions, others show delayed extinction, that is, an extinction debt. In case of an extinction debt, the current species richness is higher than expected under present habitat conditions.
2. We investigated wetlands of the canton of Zürich in the lowlands of Eastern Switzerland where a wetland loss of 90% over the last 150 years occurred. We related current species richness to current and past patch area and connectivity (in 1850, 1900, 1950, and 2000). We compared current with predicted species richness in wetlands with a substantial loss in patch area based on the species‐area relationship of wetlands without substantial loss in patch area and studied relationships between the richness of different species groups and current and historical area and connectivity of wetland patches.
3. We found evidence of a possible extinction debt for long‐lived wetland specialist vascular plants: in wetlands, which substantially lost patch area, current species richness of long‐lived specialist vascular plants was higher than would have been expected based on current patch area. Additionally and besides current wetland area, historical area also explained current species richness of these species in a substantial and significant way. No evidence for an extinction debt in bryophytes was found.
4. The possible unpaid extinction debt in the wetlands of the canton of Zürich is an appeal to nature conservation, which has the possibility to prevent likely future extinctions of species through specific conservation measures. In particular, a further reduction in wetlands must be prevented and restoration measures must be taken to increase the number of wetlands.