Spatially-Correlated Risk in Nature Reserve Site Selection

Establishing nature reserves protects species from land cover conversion and the resulting loss of habitat. Even within a reserve, however, many factors such as fires and defoliating insects still threaten habitat and the survival of species. To address the risk to species survival after reserve establishment, reserve networks can be created that allow some redundancy of species coverage to maximize the expected number of species that survive in the presence of threats. In some regions, however, the threats to species within a reserve may be spatially correlated. As examples, fires, diseases, and pest infestations can spread from a starting point and threaten neighboring parcels’ habitats, in addition to damage caused at the initial location. This paper develops a reserve site selection optimization framework that compares the optimal reserve networks in cases where risks do and do not reflect spatial correlation. By exploring the impact of spatially-correlated risk on reserve networks on a stylized landscape and on an Oregon landscape, this analysis demonstrates an appropriate and feasible method for incorporating such post-reserve establishment risks in the reserve site selection literature as an additional tool to be further developed for future conservation planning.     

Nature reserve group planning for conservation of giant pandas in North Minshan, China

Formation of nature reserve groups (NRGs) is an important approach for optimising spatial patterns in nature reserves and for improving the efficiency of nature reserve networks. In this study, based on habitat evaluation and connectivity analysis, the approach and method for optimising spatial patterns and functional zoning of reserves were analysed using the case study of giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca) reserves in North Minshan. Results indicated that five panda nature reserves had been established, which formed a reserve group and covered 48.4% of panda habitat and three of five population components. Although the nature reserves were connected to each other, core zones were divided into seven isolated areas. These divisions can reduce the efficiency of protecting giant pandas in reserve systems. To optimise spatial patterns in nature reserves, one new reserve is proposed and it is recommended that core zones be expanded and merged into two areas, in accordance with the spatial distribution of the panda population. Three linkage areas are also proposed—for facilitating panda exchange and movement among different populations. The study is expected to provide a scientific basis for planning the development of nature reserves in this mountain range, to promote the establishment of nature reserve groups in other areas, and to optimise entire nature reserve systems in China.     

Connectivity, Probabilities and Persistence: Comparing Reserve Selection Strategies

Reserve selection methods are often based on information on species’ occurrence. This can be presence–absence data, or probabilities of occurrence estimated with species distribution models. However, the effect of the choice of distribution model on the outcome of a reserve selection method has been ignored. Here we test a range of species distribution models with three different reserve selection methods. The distribution models had different combinations of variables related to habitat quality and connectivity (which incorporates the effect of spatial habitat configuration on species occurrence). The reserve selection methods included (i) a minimum set approach without spatial considerations; (ii) a clustering reserve selection method; and (iii) a dynamic approach where probabilities of occurrence are re-evaluated according to the spatial pattern of selected sites. The sets of selected reserves were assessed by re-computing species probability of occurrence in reserves using the best probability model and assuming loss of non-selected habitat. The results show that particular choices of distribution model and selection method may lead to reserves that overestimate the achieved target; in other words, species may seem to be represented but the reserve network may actually not be able to support them in the long-term. Instead, the use of models that incorporated connectivity as a variable resulted in the selection of aggregated reserves with higher potential for species long-term persistence. As reserve design aims at the long-term protection of species, it is important to be aware of the uncertainties related to model and method choice and their implications.     

Designing connected nature reserve networks using a graph theory approach

Habitat fragmentation has been cited as one of the critical reasons for biodiversity loss. Establishing connected nature reserve networks is an effective way to reduce habit fragmentation. However, the resources devoted to nature reserves have always been scarce. Therefore it is important to allocate our scarce resources in an optimal way. The optimal design of a reserve network which is effective both ecologically and economically has become an important research topic in the reserve design literature. The problem of optimal selection of a subset from a larger group of potential habitat sites is solved using either heuristic or formal optimization methods. The heuristic methods, although flexible and computationally fast, can not guarantee the solution is optimal therefore may lead to scarce resources being used in an ineffective way. The formal optimization methods, on the other hand, guarantees the solution is optimal, but it has been argued that it would be difficult to model site selection process using optimization models, especially when spatial attributes of the reserve have to be taken into account. This paper presents a linear integer programming model for the design of a minimal connected reserve network using a graph theory approach. A connected tree is determined corresponding to a connected reserve. Computational performance of the model is tested using datasets randomly generated by the software GAMS. Results show that the model can solve a connected reserve design problem which includes 100 potential sites and 30 species in a reasonable period of time. As an empirical application, the model is applied to the protection of endangered and threatened bird species in the Cache River basin area in Illinois, US. Two connected reserve networks are determined for 13 bird species.     

Designing connected nature reserve networks using a graph theory approach

Habitat fragmentation has been cited as one of the critical reasons for biodiversity loss. Establishing connected nature reserve networks is an effective way to reduce habit fragmentation. However, the resources devoted to nature reserves have always been scarce. Therefore it is important to allocate our scarce resources in an optimal way. The optimal design of a reserve network which is effective both ecologically and economically has become an important research topic in the reserve design literature. The problem of optimal selection of a subset from a larger group of potential habitat sites is solved using either heuristic or formal optimization methods. The heuristic methods, although flexible and computationally fast, can not guarantee the solution is optimal therefore may lead to scarce resources being used in an ineffective way. The formal optimization methods, on the other hand, guarantees the solution is optimal, but it has been argued that it would be difficult to model site selection process using optimization models, especially when spatial attributes of the reserve have to be taken into account. This paper presents a linear integer programming model for the design of a minimal connected reserve network using a graph theory approach. A connected tree is determined corresponding to a connected reserve. Computational performance of the model is tested using datasets randomly generated by the software GAMS. Results show that the model can solve a connected reserve design problem which includes 100 potential sites and 30 species in a reasonable period of time. As an empirical application, the model is applied to the protection of endangered and threatened bird species in the Cache River basin area in Illinois, US. Two connected reserve networks are determined for 13 bird species.     

破碎景观建立保护区面积-数量模式界定

由于生境丧失日益严重,很难找到一片未被破坏的生境建立自然保护区,因而在设计保护区时,必须处理生境丧失带来的影响。在一个已经遭受过生境丧失的景观上,选取一片正方形的区域,并调整区域的面积以保证其中未被破坏生境的面积为一个固定常数,探讨将未被破坏的生境建设成大量小保护区还是少量大保护区。结果表明:(1)随机的生境丧失下,生境丧失比例越高,少量大保护区模式的优势越明显。(2)即使生境丧失比例恒定,被破坏生境的空间分布形式也有重要影响——被破坏生境的空间聚集程度越高,大量小保护区模式的优势越明显。(3)增加扩散率或降低扩散死亡率可导致从少量大保护区更有利于物种到大量小保护区更有利的转变,且被破坏生境的聚集程度越高,转变的程度越高。以上结论为自然保护区设计提供了理论依据。     

最优化设计连续的自然保护区

生境破碎是导致生物多样性损失的重要原因之一,避免生境破碎的一个有效方式是建立连续的自然保护区使物种可在保护区内自由移动。不加选择地把大片土地都转为保护区是实现连续的一个途径,但资源是有限的,应当以最优的方式分配。如何最优化设计生态上和经济上都有效的保护区成为生物保护领域一个重要议题。从一组备选地块中选择一部分组成自然保护区,这样的问题主要有两种解法:启发式方法和最优化方法。启发式方法虽然灵活且运算速度快但不能保证最优解因而可能导致稀缺资源的浪费,最优化方法保证得到的解是最优的但建模和运算存在困难。建立一个线性整数规划模型用于设计一个最小的连续保护区,用Dantzig剪切法消除循环确保形成一个连续的树,对应一个连续的保护区,检验了模型的计算效率。结果显示,模型可在合理时间内解决一个包含100个备选地块和30个物种的连续保护区设计问题,计算效率显著优于同类目的的其它方法。以美国伊利诺伊州Cache河流域11种濒危鸟类的保护区设计为例说明了该方法的应用,设计了两种情况下连续的保护区。讨论了模型的局限和数据问题。     

The value of information in reserve site selection

The reserve site selection problem is to select sites for the establishment of biological reserves with the goal to maximize the number of species contained in the reserves. When species distributions are known, this corresponds to the maximal coverage problem. In practice, knowledge of species distributions may be incomplete and only incidence probabilities are available. In this case, the goal is to maximize the expected number of species contained in the reserves. This is called the maximal expected coverage problem. This paper describes and illustrates a formal approach to assess the value of information, such as site surveys or species surveys, in this problem.     

Effects of marine reserve characteristics on the protection of fish populations: a meta-analysis

Meta-analyses of published data for 19 marine reserves reveal that marine protected areas enhance species richness consistently, but their effect on fish abundance is more variable. Overall, there was a slight (11%) but significant increase in fish species number inside marine reserves, with all reserves sharing a common effect. There was a substantial but non-significant increase in overall fish abundance inside marine reserves compared to adjacent, non-reserve areas. When only species that are the target of fisheries were considered, fish abundance was significantly higher (by 28%) within reserve boundaries. Marine reserves vary significantly in the extent and direction of their response. This variability in relative abundance was not attributable to differences in survey methodology among studies, nor correlated with reserve characteristics such as reserve area, years since protection, latitude nor species diversity. The effectiveness of marine reserves in enhancing fish abundance may be largely related to the intensity of exploitation outside reserve boundaries and to the composition of the fish community within boundaries. It is recommended that studies of marine reserve effectiveness should routinely report fishing intensity, effectiveness of enforcement and habitat characteristics.     

Reserve selection and persistence: complementing the existing Atlantic Forest reserve system

This study is an exercise to check the efficiency of the existing reserve system, and to show how systematic conservation planning—using information available and the complementarity concept—can improve the basis for decisions and minimize costs. We verified the performance, in number of cells and primate species representation, of the existing Atlantic Forest (Brazil) reserve network with a quarter-degree resolution grid, with 1,884 cells. We used occurrence data of 20 endemic primate species, and the maps of 237 existing reserves. Reserve networks were selected to represent primate species first considering no pre-existing reserves in Atlantic Forest, and then, considering the existing reserve system, taking into account the minimum area for viable population of the larger species (Northern muriqui Brachyteles hypoxanthus). Reserve selection was carried out using the complementarity concept implemented by a simulated annealing algorithm. Primate species representation (at least one occurrence in the network) could be achieved with 8% of the existing reserve system (nine cells in relation to the 120 in the existing reserve system). We found that today’s reserve system represents 89% of endemic primate species, excluding the species Coimbra Filho’s titi monkey (Callicebus coimbrai) and Marcgraf’s capuchin (Cebus flavius). The networks selected without considering existing reserves contained nine cells. The networks selected considering existing reserves (120 cells), had two new cells necessary to represent all the primates. This does not mean that a viable alternative is to start from zero (i.e., nonexistent reserves). Identifying critical supplementary areas using biodiversity information to fill the gaps and then starting “conservation in practice” in these areas should be priorities.     

Larval dispersal and movement patterns of coral reef fishes,and implications for marine reserve network design

Well‐designed and effectively managed networks of marine reserves can be effective tools for both fisheries management and biodiversity conservation. Connectivity, the demographic linking of local populations through the dispersal of individuals as larvae, juveniles or adults, is a key ecological factor to consider in marine reserve design, since it has important implications for the persistence of metapopulations and their recovery from disturbance. For marine reserves to protect biodiversity and enhance populations of species in fished areas, they must be able to sustain focal species (particularly fishery species) within their boundaries, and be spaced such that they can function as mutually replenishing networks whilst providing recruitment subsidies to fished areas. Thus the configuration (size, spacing and location) of individual reserves within a network should be informed by larval dispersal and movement patterns of the species for which protection is required. In the past, empirical data regarding larval dispersal and movement patterns of adults and juveniles of many tropical marine species have been unavailable or inaccessible to practitioners responsible for marine reserve design. Recent empirical studies using new technologies have also provided fresh insights into movement patterns of many species and redefined our understanding of connectivity among populations through larval dispersal. Our review of movement patterns of 34 families (210 species) of coral reef fishes demonstrates that movement patterns (home ranges, ontogenetic shifts and spawning migrations) vary among and within species, and are influenced by a range of factors (e.g. size, sex, behaviour, density, habitat characteristics, season, tide and time of day). Some species move <0.1–0.5 km (e.g. damselfishes, butterflyfishes and angelfishes), <0.5–3 km (e.g. most parrotfishes, goatfishes and surgeonfishes) or 3–10 km (e.g. large parrotfishes and wrasses), while others move tens to hundreds (e.g. some groupers, emperors, snappers and jacks) or thousands of kilometres (e.g. some sharks and tuna). Larval dispersal distances tend to be <5–15 km, and self‐recruitment is common. Synthesising this information allows us, for the first time, to provide species, specific advice on the size, spacing and location of marine reserves in tropical marine ecosystems to maximise benefits for conservation and fisheries management for a range of taxa. We recommend that: (i) marine reserves should be more than twice the size of the home range of focal species (in all directions), thus marine reserves of various sizes will be required depending on which species require protection, how far they move, and if other effective protection is in place outside reserves; (ii) reserve spacing should be <15 km, with smaller reserves spaced more closely; and (iii) marine reserves should include habitats that are critical to the life history of focal species (e.g. home ranges, nursery grounds, migration corridors and spawning aggregations), and be located to accommodate movement patterns among these. We also provide practical advice for practitioners on how to use this information to design, evaluate and monitor the effectiveness of marine reserve networks within broader ecological, socioeconomic and management contexts.     

Designing connected marine reserves in the face of global warming

Marine reserves are widely used to protect species important for conservation and fisheries and to help maintain ecological processes that sustain their populations, including recruitment and dispersal. Achieving these goals requires well‐connected networks of marine reserves that maximize larval connectivity, thus allowing exchanges between populations and recolonization after local disturbances. However, global warming can disrupt connectivity by shortening potential dispersal pathways through changes in larval physiology. These changes can compromise the performance of marine reserve networks, thus requiring adjusting their design to account for ocean warming. To date, empirical approaches to marine prioritization have not considered larval connectivity as affected by global warming. Here, we develop a framework for designing marine reserve networks that integrates graph theory and changes in larval connectivity due to potential reductions in planktonic larval duration (PLD) associated with ocean warming, given current socioeconomic constraints. Using the Gulf of California as case study, we assess the benefits and costs of adjusting networks to account for connectivity, with and without ocean warming. We compare reserve networks designed to achieve representation of species and ecosystems with networks designed to also maximize connectivity under current and future ocean‐warming scenarios. Our results indicate that current larval connectivity could be reduced significantly under ocean warming because of shortened PLDs. Given the potential changes in connectivity, we show that our graph‐theoretical approach based on centrality (eigenvector and distance‐weighted fragmentation) of habitat patches can help design better‐connected marine reserve networks for the future with equivalent costs. We found that maintaining dispersal connectivity incidentally through representation‐only reserve design is unlikely, particularly in regions with strong asymmetric patterns of dispersal connectivity. Our results support previous studies suggesting that, given potential reductions in PLD due to ocean warming, future marine reserve networks would require more and/or larger reserves in closer proximity to maintain larval connectivity.     

Marine reserve design theory for species with ontogenetic migration

Models for marine reserve design have been developed primarily with ‘reef fish’ life histories in mind: sedentary adults in patches connected by larval dispersal. However, many fished species undertake ontogenetic migrations, such as from nursery grounds to adult spawning habitats, and current theory does not fully address the range of reserve options posed by that situation. I modelled a generic species with ontogenetic migration to investigate the possible benefits of reserves under three alternative scenarios. First, the fishery targets adult habitat, and reserves can sustain yields under high exploitation, unless habitat patches are well connected. Second, the fishery targets the nursery, and reserves are highly effective, regardless of connectivity patterns. Third, the fishery targets both habitats, and reserves only succeed if paired on adjacent, well-connected nursery and adult patches. In all cases, reserves can buffer populations against overexploitation but would not enhance fishery yield beyond that achievable by management without reserves. These results summarize the general situations in which management using reserves could be useful for ontogenetically migrating species, and the type of connectivity data needed to inform reserve design.     

A synthesis of genetic connectivity in deep‐sea fauna and implications for marine reserve design

With anthropogenic impacts rapidly advancing into deeper waters, there is growing interest in establishing deep‐sea marine protected areas (MPAs) or reserves. Reserve design depends on estimates of connectivity and scales of dispersal for the taxa of interest. Deep‐sea taxa are hypothesized to disperse greater distances than shallow‐water taxa, which implies that reserves would need to be larger in size and networks could be more widely spaced; however, this paradigm has not been tested. We compiled population genetic studies of deep‐sea fauna and estimated dispersal distances for 51 studies using a method based on isolation‐by‐distance slopes. Estimates of dispersal distance ranged from 0.24 km to 2028 km with a geometric mean of 33.2 km and differed in relation to taxonomic and life‐history factors as well as several study parameters. Dispersal distances were generally greater for fishes than invertebrates with the Mollusca being the least dispersive sampled phylum. Species that are pelagic as adults were more dispersive than those with sessile or sedentary lifestyles. Benthic species from soft‐substrate habitats were generally less dispersive than species from hard substrate, demersal or pelagic habitats. As expected, species with pelagic and/or feeding (planktotrophic) larvae were more dispersive than other larval types. Many of these comparisons were confounded by taxonomic or other life‐history differences (e.g. fishes being more dispersive than invertebrates) making any simple interpretation difficult. Our results provide the first rough estimate of the range of dispersal distances in the deep sea and allow comparisons to shallow‐water assemblages. Overall, dispersal distances were greater for deeper taxa, although the differences were not large (0.3–0.6 orders of magnitude between means), and imbalanced sampling of shallow and deep taxa complicates any simple interpretation. Our analyses suggest the scales of dispersal and connectivity for reserve design in the deep sea might be comparable to or slightly larger than those in shallow water. Deep‐sea reserve design will need to consider the enormous variety of taxa, life histories, hydrodynamics, spatial configuration of habitats and patterns of species distributions. The many caveats of our analyses provide a strong impetus for substantial future efforts to assess connectivity of deep‐sea species from a variety of habitats, taxonomic groups and depth zones.     

A new method for conservation planning for the persistence of multiple species

Although the aim of conservation planning is the persistence of biodiversity, current methods trade-off ecological realism at a species level in favour of including multiple species and landscape features. For conservation planning to be relevant, the impact of landscape configuration on population processes and the viability of species needs to be considered. We present a novel method for selecting reserve systems that maximize persistence across multiple species, subject to a conservation budget. We use a spatially explicit metapopulation model to estimate extinction risk, a function of the ecology of the species and the amount, quality and configuration of habitat. We compare our new method with more traditional, area-based reserve selection methods, using a ten-species case study, and find that the expected loss of species is reduced 20-fold. Unlike previous methods, we avoid designating arbitrary weightings between reserve size and configuration; rather, our method is based on population processes and is grounded in ecological theory.     

Theory for designing nature reserves for single species

We examine the question of the optimal number of reserves that should be established to maximize the persistence of a species. We assume that the mean time to extinction of a single population increases as a power of the habitat area, that there is a certain amount of habitat to be reserved, and that the aim is to determine how this habitat is most efficiently divided. The optimal configuration depends on whether the management objective is to maximize the mean time to extinction or minimize the risk of extinction. When maximizing the mean time to extinction, the optimal number of independent reserves does not depend on the amount of available habitat for the reserve system. In contrast, the risk of extinction is minimized when individual reserves are equal to the optimal patch size, making the optimal number of reserves linearly proportional to the amount of available habitat. A model that includes dispersal and correlation in the incidence of extinction demonstrates the importance of considering the relative rate at which these two factors decrease with distance between reserves. A small number of reserves is optimal when the mean time to extinction increases rapidly with habitat area or when risks of extinction are high.     

Human demography and reserve size predict wildlife extinction in West Africa.

Species-area models have become the primary tool used to predict baseline extinction rates for species in isolated habitats, and have influenced conservation and land-use planning worldwide. In particular, these models have been used to predict extinction rates following the loss or fragmentation of natural habitats in the absence of direct human influence on species persistence. Thus, where direct human influences, such as hunting, put added pressure on species in remnant habitat patches, we should expect to observe extinction rates higher than those predicted by simple species-area models. Here, we show that extinction rates for 41 species of large mammals in six nature reserves in West Africa are 14-307 times higher than those predicted by models based on reserve size alone. Human population and reserve size accounted for 98% of the observed variation in extinction rates between reserves. Extinction occurred at higher rates than predicted by species-area models for carnivores, primates and ungulates, and at the highest rates overall near reserve borders. Our results indicate that, where the harvest of wildlife is common, conservation plans should focus on increasing the size of reserves and reducing the rate of hunting.     

Priority areas for anuran conservation using biogeographical data: a comparison of greedy, rarity, and simulated annealing algorithms to define reserve networks in cerrado.

Spatial patterns in biodiversity variation at a regional scale are rarely taken into account when a natural reserve is to be established, despite many available methods for determining them. In this paper, we used dimensions of occurrence of 105 species of Anura (Amphibia) in the cerrado region of central Brazil to create a regional system of potential areas that preserves all regional diversity, using three different algorithms to establish reserve networks: "greedy", rarity, and simulated annealing algorithms. These generated networks based on complementarity with 10, 12, and 8 regions, respectively, widely distributed in the biome, and encompassing various Brazilian states. Although the purpose of these algorithms is to find a small number of regions for which all species are represented at least once, the results showed that 67.6%, 76.2%, and 69.5% of the species were represented in two or more regions in the three networks. Simulated annealing produced the smallest network, but it left out three species (one endemic). On the other hand, while the greedy algorithm produce a smaller solution, the rarity-based algorithm ensured that more species were represented more than once, which can be advantageous because it takes into consideration the high levels of habitat loss in the cerrado. Although usually coarse, these macro-scale approaches can provide overall guidelines for conservation and are useful in determining the focus for more local and effective conservation efforts, which is especially important when dealing with a taxonomic group such as anurans, for which quick and drastic population declines have been reported throughout the world.     

Optimizing resiliency of reserve networks to climate change: multispecies conservation planning in the Pacific Northwest,USA

The effectiveness of a system of reserves may be compromised under climate change as species' habitat shifts to nonreserved areas, a problem that may be compounded when well‐studied vertebrate species are used as conservation umbrellas for other taxa. The Northwest Forest Plan was among the first efforts to integrate conservation of wide‐ranging focal species and localized endemics into regional conservation planning. We evaluated how effectively the plan's focal species, the Northern Spotted Owl, acts as an umbrella for localized species under current and projected future climates and how the regional system of reserves can be made more resilient to climate change. We used the program maxent to develop distribution models integrating climate data with vegetation variables for the owl and 130 localized species. We used the program zonation to identify a system of areas that efficiently captures habitat for both the owl and localized species and prioritizes refugial areas of climatic and topographic heterogeneity where current and future habitat for dispersal‐limited species is in proximity. We projected future species' distributions based on an ensemble of contrasting climate models, and incorporating uncertainty between alternate climate projections into the prioritization process. Reserve solutions based on the owl overlap areas of high localized‐species richness but poorly capture core areas of localized species' distribution. Congruence between priority areas across taxa increases when refugial areas are prioritized. Although core‐area selection strategies can potentially increase the conservation value and resilience of regional reserve systems, they accentuate contrasts in priority areas between species and over time and should be combined with a broadened taxonomic scope and increased attention to potential effects of climate change. Our results suggest that systems of fixed reserves designed for resilience can increase the likelihood of retaining the biological diversity of forest ecosystems under climate change.     

Incorporating spatial criteria in optimum reserve network selection

Considering the spatial location of sites that are to be selected for inclusion in a protected reserve network may be necessary to facilitate dispersal and long-term persistence of species in the selected sites. This paper presents an integer programming (IP) approach to the reserve network selection problem where spatial considerations based on intersite distances are taken into account when selecting reserve sites. The objective is to reduce the fragmentation of preserved sites and design a compact reserve network. Two IP formulations are developed which minimize the sum of pairwise distances and the maximum intersite distance between all sites in the reserve network, respectively, while representing all species under consideration. This approach is applied to a pond invertebrate dataset consisting of 131 sites containing 256 species in Oxfordshire, UK. The results show that significant reductions in reserve fragmentation can be achieved, compared with spatially unrestricted optimum reserve selection, at the expense of a small loss in reserve efficiency.