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1.
Foote M  Raup DM 《Paleobiology》1996,22(2):121-140
The incompleteness of the fossil record hinders the inference of evolutionary rates and patterns. Here, we derive relationships among true taxonomic durations, preservation probability, and observed taxonomic ranges. We use these relationships to estimate original distributions of taxonomic durations, preservation probability, and completeness (proportion of taxa preserved), given only the observed ranges. No data on occurrences within the ranges of taxa are required. When preservation is random and the original distribution of durations is exponential, the inference of durations, preservability, and completeness is exact. However, reasonable approximations are possible given non-exponential duration distributions and temporal and taxonomic variation in preservability. Thus, the approaches we describe have great potential in studies of taphonomy, evolutionary rates and patterns, and genealogy. Analyses of Upper Cambrian-Lower Ordovician trilobite species, Paleozoic crinoid genera, Jurassic bivalve species, and Cenozoic mammal species yield the following results: (1) The preservation probability inferred from stratigraphic ranges alone agrees with that inferred from the analysis of stratigraphic gaps when data on the latter are available. (2) Whereas median durations based on simple tabulations of observed ranges are biased by stratigraphic resolution, our estimates of median duration, extinction rate, and completeness are not biased.(3) The shorter geologic ranges of mammalian species relative to those of bivalves cannot be attributed to a difference in preservation potential. However, we cannot rule out the contribution of taxonomic practice to this difference. (4) In the groups studied, completeness (proportion of species [trilobites, bivalves, mammals] or genera [crinoids] preserved) ranges from 60% to 90%. The higher estimates of completeness at smaller geographic scales support previous suggestions that the incompleteness of the fossil record reflects loss of fossiliferous rock more than failure of species to enter the fossil record in the first place.  相似文献   

2.
Abstract: The quality of the Triassic–Jurassic bivalve fossil record in northwest Europe has been measured using the Simple Completeness Metric (SCM). The SCM has been applied to the fossil record of total bivalve diversity and to the records of different ecological guilds. The Westbury and Lilstock Formations record high SCM values for most ecological groups. The ‘Pre‐Planorbis Beds’ of the lower Lias Group, however, witness a precipitous decline in the completeness of most guilds and emigration of taxa due to localized marine anoxia is a likely cause. Neither variation in lithofacies, shell mineralogy, sedimentary rock outcrop area, nor sequence architecture can convincingly explain the observed patterns of completeness. Our SCM data reveal that the Early Jurassic fossil record of infaunal suspension‐feeding bivalves is significantly poorer than that of epifaunal bivalves. Any differences in the apparent Rhaetian extinction rates between these two guilds should therefore be viewed with caution. Analyses of selectivity during the Late Triassic mass extinction based on studies of global databases appear robust in light of our SCM data. Nevertheless, future investigations of the Triassic–Jurassic benthic marine ecosystem undertaken at a finer‐resolution, may need to account for the poor quality of the Early Jurassic fossil records of certain ecological guilds, such as the infaunal suspension‐feeding taxa.  相似文献   

3.

Choice of method in phylogenetic analysis should involve some consideration of the quality or completeness of the available fossil record. If it is poor, cladistic methods are preferable; if it is good, stratophenetic methods may be valid. A concept of paleontological completeness, defined herein, is useful for judging the quality of a given fossil record. This paper considers eight possible measures of paleontological completeness, and evaluates their value as phylogenetically useful estimates of the quality of the fossil record. Of the eight measures, Sadler‐Schindel type analysis of stratigraphic completeness and analysis of geographic ranges appear to be the most useful and reliable. The remaining six are useful only as rough approximations of the quality of the record, or as supporting evidence for conclusions based on other methods. Use of these eight measures on the lower Tertiary molluscan record of the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coastal plains indicates that this record is approximately 30–50% complete. This is probably not complete enough to trust purely stratophenetic approaches to phylogenetic analysis, but is too complete to ignore the record in favor of a purely atemporal, cladistic approach. The concept of paleontological completeness may be useful in estimating the quality of this and other fossil records for non‐phylogenetic purposes, such as studies of evolutionary rates and diversity and extinction patterns.  相似文献   

4.
Evidence of the morphological evolution of metazoans has been preserved, in varying degrees of completeness, in the fossil record of the last 600 million years. Although extinction has been incessant at lower taxonomic levels, genomic comparisons among surviving members of higher taxa suggest that much of the developmental systems that pattern their bodyplans has been conserved from early in their history. Comparisons between the origin of morphological disparity in the record and patterns of genomic disparity among living taxa promise to be interesting. For example, Hox cluster composition varies among major taxa, and the fossil record suggests that many of the changes in Hox clusters may have been associated with late Neoproterozoic evolution among minute benthic vermiform clades, from which crown bilaterian phyla arose just before or during the Cambrian explosion. Study of genomic differences among crown classes and orders whosetiming and mode of origin can be inferred from morphological data inthefossil record should throw further light on the timing and mode of origin of genomic disparities.  相似文献   

5.
Aim To evaluate the influence of geographical distribution on the extinction risk of benthic marine invertebrates using data from the fossil record, both during times of background extinction and across a mass‐extinction episode. Total geographical range is contrasted with proxies of global abundance to assess the relationships between the two essential components of geographical distribution and extinction risk. Location A global occurrence data base of fossil benthic macro‐organisms from the Triassic and Jurassic periods was used for this study. Methods Geographical distributions and biodiversity dynamics were assessed for each genus (all taxa) or species (bivalves) based on a sample‐standardized data set and palaeogeographical reconstructions. Geographical ranges were measured by the maximum great circle distance of a taxon within a stratigraphic interval. Global abundance was assessed by the number of localities at which a taxon was recorded. Widespread and rare taxa were separated using median and percentile values of the frequency distributions of occurrences. Results The frequency distribution of geographical ranges is very similar to that for modern taxa. Although no significant correlation could be established between local abundance and geographical range, proxies of global abundance are strongly correlated with geographical range. Taxon longevities are correlated with both mean geographical range and mean global abundance, but range size appears to be more critical than abundance in determining extinction risk. These results are valid when geographical distribution is treated as a trait of taxa and when assessed for individual geological stages. Main conclusions Geographical distribution is a key predictor of extinction risk of Triassic and Jurassic benthic marine invertebrates. An important exception is in the end‐Triassic mass extinction, which equally affected geographically restricted and widespread genera, as well as common and rare genera. This suggests that global diversity crises may curtail the role of geographical distribution in determining extinction risk.  相似文献   

6.
Because phylogenies can be estimated without stratigraphic data and because estimated phylogenies also infer gaps in sampling, some workers have used phylogeny estimates as templates for evaluating sampling from the fossil record and for "correcting" historical diversity patterns. However, it is not known how sampling intensity (the probability of sampling taxa per unit time) and completeness (the proportion of taxa sampled) affect the accuracy of phylogenetic inferences, nor how phylogenetically inferred estimates of sampling and diversity respond to inaccurate estimates of phylogeny. Both issues are addressed with a series of simulations using simple models of character evolution, varying speciation patterns, and various rates of speciation, extinction, character change, and preservation. Parsimony estimates of simulated phylogenies become less accurate as sampling decreases, and inaccurate trees chronically underestimate sampling. Biotic factors such as rates of morphologic change and extinction both affect the accuracy of phylogenetic estimates and thus affect estimated gaps in sampling, indicating that differences in implied sampling need not reflect actual differences in sampling. Errors in inferred diversity are concentrated early in the history of a clade. This, coupled with failure to account for true extinction times (i.e., the Signor-Lipps effect), inflates relative diversity levels early in clade histories. Because factors other than differences in sampling predict differences in the numbers of gaps implied by phylogeny estimates, inferred phylogenies can be misleading templates for evaluating sampling or historical diversity patterns.  相似文献   

7.
An analysis of the final stratigraphic appearances of byrozoan species and genera, compiled in a world-wide bryozoan data base, revealed three discrete Late Ordovician extinctions. A Late Carddoc (Onnian) extinction was most pronounced on the plates of Baltica and Siberia. Endemic species and genera, confined to one plate and one lithotope were most affected and the extinction was coincident with increased migrations of bryozoan genera to Baltica and Siberia. The Late Caradoc extinction may be related to decreasing provinciality and competition between migrant and stenotopic taxa. Two major extinctions occurred in the Late Ashgill. The greatest of the two is recognized at the end of the Rawtheyan. and affected primarily taxa on the North American plate. The extinction at the end of the Hirnantian affected primarily Baltic taxa. The exact timing of the end-Rawtheyan extinction in North America cannot be established owing to incompleteness of the stratigraphic record. The Rawtheyan extinction occurred during a major glaciation centered in North Africa and a regression of epeiric seas. The large majority of North American survivors of the extinction are represented by Faunas preserved on Anticosti Island. which remained submerged during the regression. This evidence supports regression as a cause of the Rawtheyan extinctions in North America. The end-Hirnantian extinctions may be related to the ensuing transgression or to a wave of faunal migrations associated with the transgression. * Bryozoa, extinctions, Ordovician, Rawtheyan, Hirnantian, North America, Baltica .  相似文献   

8.
Rates of speciation in the fossil record   总被引:9,自引:0,他引:9  
Data from palaeontology and biodiversity suggest that the global biota should produce an average of three new species per year. However, the fossil record shows large variation around this mean. Rates of origination have declined through the Phanerozoic. This appears to have been largely a function of sorting among higher taxa (especially classes), which exhibit characteristic rates of speciation (and extinction) that differ among them by nearly an order of magnitude. Secular decline of origination rates is hardly constant, however; many positive deviations reflect accelerated speciation during rebounds from mass extinctions. There has also been general decline in rates of speciation within major taxa through their histories, although rates have tended to remain higher among members in tropical regions. Finally, pulses of speciation appear sometimes to be associated with climate change, although moderate oscillations of climate do not necessarily promote speciation despite forcing changes in species' geographical ranges.  相似文献   

9.
Perhaps the most pressing issue in predicting biotic responses to present and future global change is understanding how environmental factors shape the relationship between ecological traits and extinction risk. The fossil record provides millions of years of insight into how extinction selectivity (i.e., differential extinction risk) is shaped by interactions between ecological traits and environmental conditions. Numerous paleontological studies have examined trait‐based extinction selectivity; however, the extent to which these patterns are shaped by environmental conditions is poorly understood due to a lack of quantitative synthesis across studies. We conducted a meta‐analysis of published studies on fossil marine bivalves and gastropods that span 458 million years to uncover how global environmental and geochemical changes covary with trait‐based extinction selectivity. We focused on geographic range size and life habit (i.e., infaunal vs. epifaunal), two of the most important and commonly examined predictors of extinction selectivity. We used geochemical proxies related to global climate, as well as indicators of ocean acidification, to infer average global environmental conditions. Life‐habit selectivity is weakly dependent on environmental conditions, with infaunal species relatively buffered from extinction during warmer climate states. In contrast, the odds of taxa with broad geographic ranges surviving an extinction (>2500 km for genera, >500 km for species) are on average three times greater than narrow‐ranging taxa (estimate of odds ratio: 2.8, 95% confidence interval = 2.3–3.5), regardless of the prevailing global environmental conditions. The environmental independence of geographic range size extinction selectivity emphasizes the critical role of geographic range size in setting conservation priorities.  相似文献   

10.
The distribution of last occurrences of fossil taxa in a stratigraphic column are used to infer the pattern, timing and tempo of extinction from the fossil record. Clusters of last occurrences are commonly interpreted as an abrupt pulse of extinction. However, stratigraphic architecture alone can produce clusters of last occurrences that can be misinterpreted as an extinction pulse. These clusters will typically occur in strata that immediately underlie facies changes and sequence‐stratigraphic surfaces. It has been proposed that a basin‐wide analysis of the fossil record within a sequence‐stratigraphic framework can be used to distinguish between clusters of last occurrences caused solely by extinction pulses from those generated by sequence‐stratigraphic architecture. A basin‐wide approach makes it possible to observe lateral facies shifts in response to sea‐level change, mitigating the effects of stratigraphic architecture. Using computer simulations of plausible Late Ordovician mass‐extinction scenarios tuned to an inferred Late Ordovician sea‐level curve, we show that stratigraphically‐generated clusters of last occurrences are observed even in basin‐wide analyses of the simulated fossil records due to the basin‐wide loss of preferred facies for many taxa. Nonetheless, we demonstrate that by coarsening the stratigraphic resolution to the systems‐tract level and identifying facies preferences of simulated taxa, we can filter out taxa whose last occurrences coincide with the basin‐wide loss of their preferred facies. This enables consistent identification of the underlying extinction pattern for a wide variety of extinction scenarios. Applying this approach to empirical field data can help to constrain underlying extinction patterns from the fossil record.  相似文献   

11.
Bridging the gap between the fossil record and conservation biology has recently become of great interest. The enormous number of documented extinctions across different taxa can provide insights into the extinction risk of living species. However, few studies have explored this connection. We used generalised boosted modelling to analyse the impact of several traits that are assumed to influence extinction risk on the stratigraphic duration of amphibian species in the fossil record. We used this fossil‐calibrated model to predict the extinction risk for living species. We observed a high consensus between our predicted species durations and the current IUCN Red List status of living amphibian species. We also found that today's Data Deficient species are mainly predicted to experience short durations, hinting at their likely high threat status. Our study suggests that the fossil record can be a suitable tool for the evaluation of current taxa‐specific Red Listing status.  相似文献   

12.
Spatiotemporal changes in fossil specimen completeness can bias our understanding of a group's evolutionary history. The quality of the sauropodomorph fossil record was assessed a decade ago, but the number of valid species has since increased by 60%, and 17% of the taxa from that study have since undergone taxonomic revision. Here, we assess how 10 years of additional research has changed our outlook on the group's fossil record. We quantified the completeness of all 307 sauropodomorph species currently considered valid using the skeletal completeness metric, which calculates the proportion of a complete skeleton preserved for each taxon. Taxonomic and stratigraphic age revisions, rather than new species, are the drivers of the most significant differences between the current results and those of the previous assessment. No statistical differences appeared when we use our new dataset to generate temporal completeness curves based solely on taxa known in 2009 or 1999. We now observe a severe drop in mean completeness values across the Jurassic–Cretaceous boundary that never recovers to pre-Cretaceous levels. Explaining this pattern is difficult, as we find no convincing evidence that it is related to environmental preferences or body size changes. Instead, it might result from: (1) reduction of terrestrial fossil preservation space due to sea level rise; (2) ecological specificities and relatively high diagnosability of Cretaceous species; and/or (3) increased sampling of newly explored sites with many previously unknown taxa. Revisiting patterns in this manner allows us to test the longevity of conclusions made in previous quantitative studies.  相似文献   

13.
Although the recent historical period is usually treated as a temporal base-line for understanding patterns of mammal extinction, mammalian biodiversity loss has also taken place throughout the Late Quaternary. We explore the spatial, taxonomic and phylogenetic patterns of 241 mammal species extinctions known to have occurred during the Holocene up to the present day. To assess whether our understanding of mammalian threat processes has been affected by excluding these taxa, we incorporate extinct species data into analyses of the impact of body mass on extinction risk. We find that Holocene extinctions have been phylogenetically and spatially concentrated in specific taxa and geographical regions, which are often not congruent with those disproportionately at risk today. Large-bodied mammals have also been more extinction-prone in most geographical regions across the Holocene. Our data support the extinction filter hypothesis, whereby regional faunas from which susceptible species have already become extinct now appear less threatened; they may also suggest that different processes are responsible for driving past and present extinctions. We also find overall incompleteness and inter-regional biases in extinction data from the recent fossil record. Although direct use of fossil data in future projections of extinction risk is therefore not straightforward, insights into extinction processes from the Holocene record are still useful in understanding mammalian threat.  相似文献   

14.
Recent analyses have suggested that extinction and origination rates exhibit long-range correlations, implying that the fossil record may be controlled by self-organized criticality or other scale-free internal dynamics of the biosphere. Here we directly test for correlations in the fossil record by calculating the autocorrelation of extinction [corrected] and origination rates through time. Our results show that extinction rates are uncorrelated beyond the average duration of a stratigraphic interval. Thus, they lack the long-range correlations predicted by the self-organized criticality hypothesis. In contrast, origination rates show strong autocorrelations due to long-term trends. After detrending, origination rates generally show weak positive correlations at lags of 5-10 million years (Myr) and weak negative correlations at lags of 10-30 Myr, consistent with aperiodic oscillations around their long-term trends. We hypothesize that origination rates are more correlated than extinction rates because originations of new taxa create new ecological niches and new evolutionary pathways for reaching them, thus creating conditions that favour further diversification.  相似文献   

15.
Jean-Pierre Suc 《Geobios》1976,9(6):741-767
The present study illustrates clearly how pollen analysis may be applied to stratigraphy from a botanical point of view. Within a chronologically reliable frame (Middle Pliocene for the marine deposits on the basis of Foraminifera record; two subzones for continental deposits on the basis of Mammals record: Hautimagne for Terrats fauna, Sète for Serrat-d'en-Vacquer fauna), palynology provides a good stratigraphical boundary: the extinction of the Taxodiaceae. In a remblayage area, it is established that a continental level is not necessarily younger than a marine one unless they are superposed. Many profiles are replaced according to the «progradation of the pliocene gulf of Roussillon. The boundary between marine and continental deposits cuts through the chronological line of the Taxodiaceae extinction. The flora investigated (93 taxa) is the first known for the Pliocene of this area. The extinction of the Taxodiaceae in southern France has a climatic cause: the setting in of a mediterranean rhythm (dry summers). This extinction is much older than the one which took place in Italy (Tiberian boundary) and in the Netherlands (Reuverian-Pretiglian boundary).  相似文献   

16.
Bats are unique among mammals in their use of powered flight and their widespread capacity for laryngeal echolocation. Understanding how and when these and other abilities evolved could be improved by examining the bat fossil record. However, the fossil record of bats is commonly believed to be very poor. Quantitative analyses of this record have rarely been attempted, so it has been difficult to gauge just how depauperate the bat fossil record really is. A crucial step in analyzing the quality of the fossil record is to be able to accurately estimate completeness. Measures of completeness of the fossil record have important consequences for our understanding of evolutionary rates and patterns among bats. In this study, we applied previously developed statistical methods of analyzing completeness to the bat fossil record. The main utility of these methods over others used to study completeness is their independence from phylogeny. This phylogenetic-independence is desirable, given the recent state of flux in the higher-level phylogenetic relationships of bats. All known fossil bat genera were tabulated at the geologic stage or sub-epoch level. This binning strategy allowed an estimate of the extinction rate for each bat genus per bin. Extinction rate—together with per-genus estimates of preservation probability and original temporal distributions—was used to calculate completeness. At the genus level, the bat fossil record is estimated to be 12% complete. Within the order, Pteropodidae is missing most of its fossil history, while Rhinolophoidea and Vespertilionoidea are missing the least. These results suggest that 88% of bats that existed never left a fossil record, and that the fossil record of bats is indeed poor. Much of the taxonomic and evolutionary history of bats has yet to be uncovered.  相似文献   

17.
The problem of how accurately paraphyletic taxa versus monophyletic (i.e., holophyletic) groups (clades) capture underlying species patterns of diversity and extinction is explored with Monte Carlo simulations. Phylogenies are modeled as stochastic trees. Paraphyletic taxa are defined in an arbitrary manner by randomly choosing progenitors and clustering all descendants not belonging to other taxa. These taxa are then examined to determine which are clades, and the remaining paraphyletic groups are dissected to discover monophyletic subgroups. Comparisons of diversity patterns and extinction rates between modeled taxa and lineages indicate that paraphyletic groups can adequately capture lineage information under a variety of conditions of diversification and mass extinction. This suggests that these groups constitute more than mere "taxonomic noise" in this context. But, strictly monophyletic groups perform somewhat better, especially with regard to mass extinctions. However, when low levels of paleontologic sampling are simulated, the veracity of clades deteriorates, especially with respect to diversity, and modeled paraphyletic taxa often capture more information about underlying lineages. Thus, for studies of diversity and taxic evolution in the fossil record, traditional paleontologic genera and families need not be rejected in favor of cladistically-defined taxa.  相似文献   

18.
Methods in historical biogeography have revolutionized our ability to infer the evolution of ancestral geographical ranges from phylogenies of extant taxa, the rates of dispersals, and biotic connectivity among areas. However, extant taxa are likely to provide limited and potentially biased information about past biogeographic processes, due to extinction, asymmetrical dispersals and variable connectivity among areas. Fossil data hold considerable information about past distribution of lineages, but suffer from largely incomplete sampling. Here we present a new dispersal–extinction–sampling (DES) model, which estimates biogeographic parameters using fossil occurrences instead of phylogenetic trees. The model estimates dispersal and extinction rates while explicitly accounting for the incompleteness of the fossil record. Rates can vary between areas and through time, thus providing the opportunity to assess complex scenarios of biogeographic evolution. We implement the DES model in a Bayesian framework and demonstrate through simulations that it can accurately infer all the relevant parameters. We demonstrate the use of our model by analysing the Cenozoic fossil record of land plants and inferring dispersal and extinction rates across Eurasia and North America. Our results show that biogeographic range evolution is not a time-homogeneous process, as assumed in most phylogenetic analyses, but varies through time and between areas. In our empirical assessment, this is shown by the striking predominance of plant dispersals from Eurasia into North America during the Eocene climatic cooling, followed by a shift in the opposite direction, and finally, a balance in biotic interchange since the middle Miocene. We conclude by discussing the potential of fossil-based analyses to test biogeographic hypotheses and improve phylogenetic methods in historical biogeography.  相似文献   

19.
The tooth-billed pigeon Didunculus strigirostris lives on three islands in Western (Independent) Samoa. A larger, extinct species, Didunculus placopedetes , is described from bones recovered in late Quaternary cave deposits on 'Eua, Kingdom of Tonga. Also referred to D. placopedetes are bones from archaeological sites on the larger Tongan island of Tongatapu and the smaller, lower islands of Lifuka, Ha'ano, 'Uiha and Ha'afeva. As with so many other landbirds in Polynesia, the extinction of D. placopedetes occurred since the arrival of people and presumably was due to human impact. The peopling of Tonga is why the genus Didunculus is considered to be endemic to Samoa. The biogeographic implications of the new data on Didunculus are not unique; human activities have reduced or eliminated the natural range of nearly every genus and species group of Polynesian landbird. The reduced ranges of surviving taxa have created a situation (herein called 'pseudo-endemism') where a taxon that seems today to be endemic to a restricted area (often one or two islands) was much more widespread at first human arrival. As the prehistoric record of insular birds improves in the Pacific and elsewhere, the list of pseudo-endemic taxa will continue to grow.  相似文献   

20.
Pterosaurs, a Mesozoic group of flying archosaurs, have become a focal point for debates pertaining to the impact of sampling biases on our reading of the fossil record, as well as the utility of sampling proxies in palaeo‐diversity reconstructions. The completeness of the pterosaur fossil specimens themselves potentially provides additional information that is not captured in existing sampling proxies, and might shed new light on the group's evolutionary history. Here we assess the quality of the pterosaur fossil record via a character completeness metric based on the number of phylogenetic characters that can be scored for all known skeletons of 172 valid species, with averaged completeness values calculated for each geological stage. The fossil record of pterosaurs is observed to be strongly influenced by the occurrence and distribution of Lagerstätten. Peaks in completeness correlate with Lagerstätten deposits, and a recovered correlation between completeness and observed diversity is rendered non‐significant when Lagerstätten species are excluded. Intervals previously regarded as potential extinction events are shown to lack Lagerstätten and exhibit low completeness values: as such, the apparent low diversity in these intervals might be at least partly the result of poor fossil record quality. A positive correlation between temporal patterns in completeness of Cretaceous pterosaurs and birds further demonstrates the prominent role that Lagerstätten deposits have on the preservation of smaller bodied organisms, contrasting with a lack of correlation with the completeness of large‐bodied sauropodomorphs. However, we unexpectedly find a strong correlation between sauropodomorph and pterosaur completeness within the Triassic–Jurassic, but not the Cretaceous, potentially relating to a shared shift in environmental preference and thus preservation style through time. This study highlights the importance of understanding the relationship between various taphonomic controls when correcting for sampling bias, and provides additional evidence for the prominent role of sampling on observed patterns in pterosaur macroevolution.  相似文献   

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