发展的生态观:弹性思维

弹性思维是国际恢复联盟特别推荐的资源管理新思维方式,是面对可持续发展而提出的新生态观,被许多学者评价为可持续发展管理的理论基础。国际恢复联盟项目主管Walker教授和Salt博士合编的《弹性思维》是这一理论的代表作。介绍弹性思维的思想基础和几个主要的观点,以及富有弹性的复合生态-社会系统的主要属性,并对其应用前景进行评述。     

社会-生态系统恢复力研究综述

目前国内外对脆弱性的论述很多,然而关于恢复力的研究却刚刚起步且困难重重。1973年Holling创造性地将恢复力引入到生态系统稳定性的研究中,并将其定义为系统吸收干扰并继续维持其功能、结构、反馈等不发生质变的能力。30多年来这一术语的概念和内涵在大量的案例研究中得到了丰富和完善,然而这些研究对恢复力的不同解释亦造成了大量的混淆,因此需要在统一的理论基础上,根据控制系统变化的属性来构建恢复力的概念并进行应用研究。在社会-生态系统框架下,分析了恢复力研究的基础理论——适应性循环及扰沌,对其概念及内涵做了进展综述,回顾了恢复力的应用案例,探讨了定量化问题,在此基础上对社会．生态系统恢复力的研究进行了展望,提出了面临的关键问题及今后的研究方向。     

An Exploratory Framework for the Empirical Measurement of Resilience

Deliberate progress towards the goal of long-term sustainability depends on understanding the dynamics of linked social and ecological systems. The concept of social-ecological resilience holds promise for interdisciplinary syntheses. Resilience is a multifaceted concept that as yet has not been directly operationalized, particularly in systems for which our ignorance is such that detailed, parameter-rich simulation models are difficult to develop. We present an exploratory framework as a step towards the operationalization of resilience for empirical studies. We equate resilience with the ability of a system to maintain its identity, where system identity is defined as a property of key components and relationships (networks) and their continuity through space and time. Innovation and memory are also fundamental to understanding identity and resilience. By parsing our systems into the elements that we subjectively consider essential to identity, we obtain a small set of specific focal variables that reflect changes in identity. By assessing the potential for changes in identity under specified drivers and perturbations, in combination with a scenario-based approach to considering alternative futures, we obtain a surrogate measure of the current resilience of our study system as the likelihood of a change in system identity under clearly specified conditions, assumptions, drivers and perturbations. Although the details of individual case studies differ, the concept of identity provides a level of generality that can be used to compare measure of resilience across cases. Our approach will also yield insights into the mechanisms of change and the potential consequences of different policy and management decisions, providing a level of decision support for each case study area.     

Biodiversity and land use change on the Causse Méjan, France

This paper argues that due to the co-evolution of biological and cultural diversity, a meaningful study of biodiversity must be positioned within complex social-ecological systems. A complex systems framework is proposed for conceptualising the study of social-ecological systems. A case study approach is adopted whereby changes in biodiversity on the Causse Méjan, France, are linked with changes in society, land use, agricultural practices and policies. We argue that ecological and social resilience is linked through the dependence on ecosystems of communities, and in turn by the influence of institutional structures, including market forces, on the use of natural resources. Within a non-equilibrium evolutionary perspective, we highlight the difficulty of choosing a landscape and biodiversity of reference and postulating that it is in equilibrium with a type of social organisation. We conclude by exploring an ‘adaptive management’ approach to the management of the biodiverse landscape studied.     

社会-生态系统恢复力的测量方法综述

恢复力和社会-生态系统研究的理论及实践近年来在西方较为流行,然而经过几十年发展,学术界仍旧没有对恢复力的概念达成一致,相应的测量方法更是多种多样。基于恢复力理论对系统相对稳定状态和边界的假设以及恢复力概念3个阶段的演变和理论的发展,总结了测量恢复力的5种方法,得出恢复力测量的3个发展现状或趋势:阈值和断裂点方法依旧是量化恢复力的基本方法;恢复力测量从关注时间转向空间,关注生态转向社会和社会-生态;复杂学和多学科融合的方法是未来发展的主要方向。     

A Systems Model Approach to Determining Resilience Surrogates for Case Studies

Resilience theory offers a framework for understanding the dynamics of complex systems. However, operationalizing resilience theory to develop and test empirical hypotheses can be difficult. We present a method in which simple systems models are used as a framework to identify resilience surrogates for case studies. The process of constructing a systems model for a particular case offers a path for identifying important variables related to system resilience, including the slowly-changing variables and thresholds that often are keys to understanding the resilience of a system. We develop a four-step process for identifying resilience surrogates through development of systems models. Because systems model development is often a difficult step, we summarize four basic existing systems models and give examples of how each may be used to identify resilience surrogates. The construction and analysis of simple systems models provides a useful basis for guiding and directing the selection of surrogate variables that will offer appropriate empirical measures of resilience.     

基于传统生态智慧的江南水网空间韧性机制及实践启示

传统江南水网空间是一种典型的社会—生态系统,人文社会系统和自然生态系统之间的良性互动对于其韧性构建有着重要的积极作用。基于柯林斯等人提出的压力—冲击动态（PPD）模型,以平江府为典型代表,研究传统江南水网空间如何通过生态系统服务的桥梁搭建水网物质空间与人类社区发展之间的联系,从而厘清社会—生态系统在此过程中如何培育、优化和提升江南水网空间韧性。在此基础上,创新性地从生态系统服务供需关系的角度提出社会—生态韧性构建的生态智慧,并倡导以恢复力、适应力与变革力韧性机制培育为导向的、江南地区构建现代社区实践的若干启示,旨在引导江南水网空间实现具有韧性的社会—生态系统转型发展。     

The interplay of top-down planning and adaptive self-organization in an African floodplain

Natural floodplains are complex social-ecological systems in which human livelihoods are tightly coupled with flooding dynamics. In this paper, we argue that hydraulic planning in such systems, including to mitigate extreme floods, must consider three key features of adaptive self-organizing systems in floodplains - connectivity, learning feedbacks, and rhythms - to support the resilience of floodplain communities to extreme floods. We illustrate this argument with a case study of the Logone Floodplain, Cameroon. Based on hydrological data, ethnographic research and a series of focus group interviews with floodplain villagers, we analyze the interplay of top-down planning and adaptive self-organization in response to two extreme floods in 2012 and 2015. We show that recent top-down strategies of hydraulic control in the floodplain have led to more hydraulic uncertainty for local populations, and curtailed the conditions for sustainable self-organization in the floodplain.     

Early Warning Signs in Social-Ecological Networks

A number of social-ecological systems exhibit complex behaviour associated with nonlinearities, bifurcations, and interaction with stochastic drivers. These systems are often prone to abrupt and unexpected instabilities and state shifts that emerge as a discontinuous response to gradual changes in environmental drivers. Predicting such behaviours is crucial to the prevention of or preparation for unwanted regime shifts. Recent research in ecology has investigated early warning signs that anticipate the divergence of univariate ecosystem dynamics from a stable attractor. To date, leading indicators of instability in systems with multiple interacting components have remained poorly investigated. This is a major limitation in the understanding of the dynamics of complex social-ecological networks. Here, we develop a theoretical framework to demonstrate that rising variance—measured, for example, by the maximum element of the covariance matrix of the network—is an effective leading indicator of network instability. We show that its reliability and robustness depend more on the sign of the interactions within the network than the network structure or noise intensity. Mutualistic, scale free and small world networks are less stable than their antagonistic or random counterparts but their instability is more reliably predicted by this leading indicator. These results provide new advances in multidimensional early warning analysis and offer a framework to evaluate the resilience of social-ecological networks.     

Balancing yield with resilience and conservation objectives in harvested predator–prey communities

The global overexploitation of fish stocks is endangering many marine food webs. Scientists and managers now call for an ecosystem‐based fisheries management, able to take into account the complexity of marine ecosystems and the multiple ecosystem services they provide. By contrast, many fishery management plans only focus on maximizing the productivity of harvested stocks. Such practices are suggested to affect other ecosystem services, altering the integrity and resilience of natural communities. Here we show that while yield‐maximizing policies can allow for coexistence and resilience in predator–prey communities, they are not optimal in a multi‐objective context. We find that although total prey and predator maximum yields are higher with a prey‐oriented harvest, focusing on the predator improves species coexistence. Also, moderate harvesting of the predator can enhance resilience. Furthermore, increasing maximum yields by changing catchabilities improves resilience in predator‐oriented systems, but reduces it in prey‐oriented systems. In a multi‐objective context, optimal harvesting strategies involve a general tradeoff between yield and resilience. Resilience‐maximizing strategies are however compatible with quite high yields, and should often be favored. Our results further suggest that balancing harvest between trophic levels is often best at maintaining simultaneously species coexistence, resilience and yield.     

韧性城市研究综述——基于城市复杂系统视角

在全球气候变化与持续城市化的背景下,增强城市韧性是提升城市应急管理能力,实现城市系统可持续发展的重要途径。明确城市韧性的内涵、核心要素及相互作用机理,开展城市系统韧性测度与城市系统模拟,对提升变化环境下城市系统恢复力与韧性水平,缓解变化环境对城市系统运行稳定性冲击压力具有重要意义。基于文献与资料分析,全面解析韧性城市核心概念与各国韧性城市建设、管理与研究实践。此外,研究从城市复杂系统视角探究变化环境对城市系统影响机制、测度方法与系统模拟路径。研究为韧性城市理论、方法与实证研究提供了参考,并为我国韧性城市建设实践提供决策依据与政策建议。     

Operationalizing resilience for adaptive coral reef management under global environmental change

Cumulative pressures from global climate and ocean change combined with multiple regional and local‐scale stressors pose fundamental challenges to coral reef managers worldwide. Understanding how cumulative stressors affect coral reef vulnerability is critical for successful reef conservation now and in the future. In this review, we present the case that strategically managing for increased ecological resilience (capacity for stress resistance and recovery) can reduce coral reef vulnerability (risk of net decline) up to a point. Specifically, we propose an operational framework for identifying effective management levers to enhance resilience and support management decisions that reduce reef vulnerability. Building on a system understanding of biological and ecological processes that drive resilience of coral reefs in different environmental and socio‐economic settings, we present an Adaptive Resilience‐Based management (ARBM) framework and suggest a set of guidelines for how and where resilience can be enhanced via management interventions. We argue that press‐type stressors (pollution, sedimentation, overfishing, ocean warming and acidification) are key threats to coral reef resilience by affecting processes underpinning resistance and recovery, while pulse‐type (acute) stressors (e.g. storms, bleaching events, crown‐of‐thorns starfish outbreaks) increase the demand for resilience. We apply the framework to a set of example problems for Caribbean and Indo‐Pacific reefs. A combined strategy of active risk reduction and resilience support is needed, informed by key management objectives, knowledge of reef ecosystem processes and consideration of environmental and social drivers. As climate change and ocean acidification erode the resilience and increase the vulnerability of coral reefs globally, successful adaptive management of coral reefs will become increasingly difficult. Given limited resources, on‐the‐ground solutions are likely to focus increasingly on actions that support resilience at finer spatial scales, and that are tightly linked to ecosystem goods and services.     

面向可持续发展目标的社会-生态系统研究进展——基于文献计量分析

作为探索可持续发展实现路径的关键工具,社会-生态系统理论研究框架的重要性日益凸显,但截至目前,对如何运用社会-生态系统理论研究框架解读各项可持续发展目标（SDGs）还缺乏比较清晰的认识。概述了社会-生态系统的主要研究框架,基于文献计量软件和可视化手段系统分析了面向SDGs的社会-生态系统研究的现状和特点。结果表明："SDG1-无贫困"、"SDG2-零饥饿"、"SDG8-体面工作和经济增长"、"SDG13-气候行动"和"SDG14-水下生物"是目前研究中关注的热点,涉及了多尺度的农林、淡水、海洋、城乡等典型系统,呈现出跨学科、数据多元化和方法集成化的显著特征;而有关"SDG4-优质教育"、"SDG5-性别平等"、"SDG7-经济适用的清洁能源"和"SDG10-减少不平等"等目标的研究相对较少;SDGs研究热点与国家发展阶段密切相关,基于社会-生态系统视角的多项目标关联关系的研究较少,该领域研究主要为可持续发展目标提供了"分析框架、达标评估、趋势预测和管理决策"的支撑服务作用。未来亟需加强以下四个方面的研究：（1）基于社会-生态系统视角的SDGs关联关系研究;（2）构建因地制宜的社会-生态系统研究框架;（3） SDGs导向的社会-生态系统动态反馈机制研究;（4）学科融合和数据平台建设。为探索适宜中国SGDs的实现路径提供科学参考。     

Living within dynamic social-ecological freshwater systems: System parameters and the role of ecological engineering

The objective of ecological engineering is to design sustainable ecosystems that integrate human communities and their natural environment for the benefit of both. In this paper, we illustrate how social-ecological modeling can be used as a tool to clarify this objective at a landscape scale for freshwater systems. Coupled social-ecological systems (SESs) are open, dynamic systems subject to both ecological and socioeconomic perturbations. Here we demonstrate the interactive effects of social and technological uncertainties on SES dynamics over time. Additionally, we integrate research on ecosystem stability, social-ecological modeling, and ecological engineering to offer guidance for research at the human-environment interface. Based on a case study of Lake Erie's Sandusky watershed, we use an integrated human-biophysical model to investigate the influence of two parameters on SES dynamics: (1) regional societal preferences that impact watershed management and (2) technological innovation that alters agricultural nutrient efficiency. Our results illustrate ways in which SES dynamics and optimum management strategies depend on societal preferences within the region, indicating a key area of uncertainty for future investigation. As guidance for SES restoration, our model results also illustrate the conditions under which technological change that increases nutrient efficiency on farms can and cannot create a win-win, or increase both human welfare and SES resistance to eutrophication simultaneously. Using these results, we elucidate the value of ecological engineering and offer guidance for assessments of ecological engineering projects using social-ecological modeling.     

Resilience in a two-population system: interactions between Allee effects and connectivity

Resilience in ecosystems and resistance to regime shifts has been a major focus in ecological research. How migration and general network dynamics affect the resilience of populations or induce regime shift cascades is a particularly challenging open question in theoretical ecology. We focus on regime shifts in populations with variable-strength Allee effects to demonstrate the effect of migration on resilience in two-population systems with critical transitions. The result is a mathematical model that justifies the assumption that resilience can be averaged across connected populations and suggests several management strategies to either avoid or induce regime shift cascades.     

Freshwater for resilience: a shift in thinking

Humanity shapes freshwater flows and biosphere dynamics from a local to a global scale. Successful management of target resources in the short term tends to alienate the social and economic development process from its ultimate dependence on the life-supporting environment. Freshwater becomes transformed into a resource for optimal management in development, neglecting the multiple functions of freshwater in dynamic landscapes and its fundamental role as the bloodstream of the biosphere. The current tension of these differences in worldview is exemplified through the recent development of modern aquaculture contrasted with examples of catchment-based stewardship of freshwater flows in dynamic landscapes. In particular, the social and institutional dimension of catchment management is highlighted and features of social-ecological systems for resilience building are presented. It is concluded that this broader view of freshwater provides the foundation for hydrosolidarity.     

Synergy between adaptive management and participatory modelling: The two processes as interconnected spirals

The management of social-ecological systems often presents a complex and wicked problem due to interactions between natural processes and varied, sometimes opposing, stakeholder goals. The adaptive management and participatory modelling processes are often used either to manage or in support of the management of social-ecological systems but are not always used in concert. We suggest that these processes are naturally complementary with overlapping components and between-process feedback. As such, we advocate that adaptive management should make use of participatory modelling for the management of social-ecological systems to increase stakeholder communication, confidence, and participation, streamline management strategy development, and improve management strategy application and durability. We present a translation of the typical adaptive management cycle concept to a spiral format, as well as a representation of adaptive management and participatory modelling proceeding together as interconnected spirals.     

三角洲适应性转型——基于景观的区域设计方法

针对气候变化和城市化对富饶的三角洲地区带来的洪涝风险、生态、社会—文化价值流失等威胁,提出将三角洲城市化进程视为一系列具有独立动态特征和速率变化的复杂社会—生态系统（子系统）,急需为保障该类型区域的可持续发展提供空间战略,以协助修复系统漏洞并增强应对自然和人工威胁的能力,以珠江三角洲为例,针对城市化进程中三角洲区域的适应性城市转型,提出基于景观的区域设计方法。通过对自然和城市景观要素转型性循环的各类动态变化进行评估,得到生态动力型区域设计战略,为城市化进程中的自然和社会—文化发展提供更多机遇。提出保障水安全和全纳性社会—生态设计的适应性转型视角。     

Capturing Ecosystem Services,Stakeholders' Preferences and Trade-Offs in Coastal Aquaculture Decisions: A Bayesian Belief Network Application

Aquaculture activities are embedded in complex social-ecological systems. However, aquaculture development decisions have tended to be driven by revenue generation, failing to account for interactions with the environment and the full value of the benefits derived from services provided by local ecosystems. Trade-offs resulting from changes in ecosystem services provision and associated impacts on livelihoods are also often overlooked. This paper proposes an innovative application of Bayesian belief networks - influence diagrams - as a decision support system for mediating trade-offs arising from the development of shrimp aquaculture in Thailand. Senior experts were consulted (n = 12) and primary farm data on the economics of shrimp farming (n = 20) were collected alongside secondary information on ecosystem services, in order to construct and populate the network. Trade-offs were quantitatively assessed through the generation of a probabilistic impact matrix. This matrix captures nonlinearity and uncertainty and describes the relative performance and impacts of shrimp farming management scenarios on local livelihoods. It also incorporates export revenues and provision and value of ecosystem services such as coastal protection and biodiversity. This research shows that Bayesian belief modeling can support complex decision-making on pathways for sustainable coastal aquaculture development and thus contributes to the debate on the role of aquaculture in social-ecological resilience and economic development.     

面向国家公园管理目标的综合灾害风险管理:一个概念模型

减小阻碍国家公园管理目标实现的灾害风险,实现管理有效性,是保证国家公园体制建设建立的重要途径。研究提出,面向国家公园多元管理目标,保障社会-生态系统稳定性和恢复力,国家公园灾害风险管理具有综合性。这种综合性体现在国家公园内致灾因子与承灾体的多样性、相对性与转化性,需要集成分别侧重社会与生态系统的传统自然灾害风险管理与生态风险管理,让灾害风险管理贯穿国家公园具体管理。为实现集成应对这种综合性,研究首先总结国内外多类型自然保护地灾害风险管理特点与经验,辨析国家公园灾害风险管理在国家公园管理职责和管理规划中的定位,从3个方面提出对我国国家公园灾害风险管理的启示：1）需要与国家公园宏观管理目标紧密相连;2）以维持社会-生态系统理想状态为目标;3）要具有管理空间、时间与运行的整体性。在此基础上提出一个面向国家公园管理目标的综合灾害风险管理框架,其主要特点是：1）具有"层级式"管理目标;2）以社会-生态系统服务为评价终点开展以理想状态为目标的风险管理;3）联结研究与管理、协调科学与价值观进行适应性管理。