Post-Discharge Mortality in Children with Severe Malnutrition and Pneumonia in Bangladesh

Background

Post-discharge mortality among children with severe illness in resource-limited settings is under-recognized and there are limited data. We evaluated post-discharge mortality in a recently reported cohort of children with severe malnutrition and pneumonia, and identified characteristics associated with an increased risk of death.

Methods

Young children (<5 years of age) with severe malnutrition (WHO criteria) and radiographic pneumonia on admission to Dhaka Hospital of icddr,b over a 15-month period were managed according to standard protocols. Those discharged were followed-up and survival status at 12 weeks post-discharge was determined. Verbal autopsy was requested from families of those that died.

Results

Of 405 children hospitalized with severe malnutrition and pneumonia, 369 (median age, 10 months) were discharged alive with a follow-up plan. Of these, 32 (8.7%) died in the community within 3 months of discharge: median 22 (IQR 9–35) days from discharge to death. Most deaths were reportedly associated with acute onset of new respiratory or gastrointestinal symptoms. Those that died following discharge were significantly younger (median 6 [IQR 3,12] months) and more severely malnourished, on admission and on discharge, than those that survived. Bivariate analysis found that severe wasting on admission (OR 3.64, 95% CI 1.66–7.97) and age <12 months (OR 2.54, 95% CI 1.1–8.8) were significantly associated with post-discharge death. Of those that died in the community, none had attended a scheduled follow-up and care-seeking from a traditional healer was more common (p<0.001) compared to those who survived.

Conclusion and Significance

Post-discharge mortality was common in Bangladeshi children following inpatient care for severe malnutrition and pneumonia. The underlying contributing factors require a better understanding to inform the potential of interventions that could improve survival.     

Using Highly Detailed Administrative Data to Predict Pneumonia Mortality

Background

Mortality prediction models generally require clinical data or are derived from information coded at discharge, limiting adjustment for presenting severity of illness in observational studies using administrative data.

Objectives

To develop and validate a mortality prediction model using administrative data available in the first 2 hospital days.

Research Design

After dividing the dataset into derivation and validation sets, we created a hierarchical generalized linear mortality model that included patient demographics, comorbidities, medications, therapies, and diagnostic tests administered in the first 2 hospital days. We then applied the model to the validation set.

Subjects

Patients aged ≥18 years admitted with pneumonia between July 2007 and June 2010 to 347 hospitals in Premier, Inc.’s Perspective database.

Measures

In hospital mortality.

Results

The derivation cohort included 200,870 patients and the validation cohort had 50,037. Mortality was 7.2%. In the multivariable model, 3 demographic factors, 25 comorbidities, 41 medications, 7 diagnostic tests, and 9 treatments were associated with mortality. Factors that were most strongly associated with mortality included receipt of vasopressors, non-invasive ventilation, and bicarbonate. The model had a c-statistic of 0.85 in both cohorts. In the validation cohort, deciles of predicted risk ranged from 0.3% to 34.3% with observed risk over the same deciles from 0.1% to 33.7%.

Conclusions

A mortality model based on detailed administrative data available in the first 2 hospital days had good discrimination and calibration. The model compares favorably to clinically based prediction models and may be useful in observational studies when clinical data are not available.     

Long term outcome of severe anaemia in Malawian children

Background

Severe anaemia is a common, frequently fatal, condition in African children admitted to hospital, but its long term outcome is unknown. Early reports that survivors may be at risk of additional late morbidity and mortality may have significant implications for child survival in Africa. We assessed the short and long term outcome of severe anaemia in Malawian children and identified potential risk factors for death and further severe anaemia.

Methodology and Findings

For 18 months, we followed up children (6–60 months old) presenting to hospital with severe anaemia (haemoglobin ≤5g/dl) and their hospital and community controls with the aim to compare all cause mortality and severe anaemia recurrence rates between the groups, and to identify risk factors for these adverse outcomes. A total of 377 cases, 377 hospital controls and 380 community controls were recruited. Among cases, the in-hospital mortality was 6.4% and post-discharge all cause mortality was 12.6%, which was significantly greater than in hospital controls (2.9%) or community controls (1.4%) (Log rank test, p<0.001). The incidence of recurrence of severe anaemia among the cases was 0.102 per child-year (95% Confidence Interval 0.075–0.138), and was significantly higher than the 0.007 per child-year (95% CI 0.003–0.015) in the combined controls (p<0.0001). HIV was the most important risk factor both for post-discharge mortality (Hazard Ratio 10.5, 95% CI 4.0–27.2) and for recurrence of severe anaemia (HR 5.6, 95% CI 1.6–20.1).

Conclusions

Severe anaemia carries a high ‘hidden’ morbidity and mortality occurring in the months after initial diagnosis and treatment. Because severe anaemia is very common, this is likely to contribute importantly to overall under-five mortality. If not adequately addressed, severe anaemia may be an obstacle to achievement of the Millennium development goal No.4 on child survival. Strategies to diagnose and properly treat HIV infected children early most likely will reduce the high post-discharge mortality in severe anaemia.     

Prevention of the Recurrence of Anaemia in Gambian Children Following Discharge from Hospital

Background

In malaria endemic countries, children who have experienced an episode of severe anaemia are at increased risk of a recurrence of anaemia. There is a need to find ways of protecting these at risk children from malaria and chemoprevention offers a potential way of achieving this objective.

Methods

During the 2003 and 2004 malaria transmission seasons, 1200 Gambian children with moderate or severe anaemia (Hb concentration <7 g/dL) were randomised to receive either monthly sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) or placebo until the end of the malaria transmission season in which they were enrolled, in a double-blind trial. All study subjects were treated with oral iron for 28 days and morbidity was monitored through surveillance at health centres. The primary endpoint was the proportion of children with moderate or severe anaemia at the end of the transmission season. Secondary endpoints included the incidence of clinical episodes of malaria during the surveillance period, outpatient attendances, the prevalence of parasitaemia and splenomegaly, nutritional status at the end of the malaria transmission season and compliance with the treatment regimen.

Results

The proportions of children with a Hb concentration of <7 g/dL at the end of the malaria transmission season were similar in the two study groups, 14/464 (3.0%) in children who received at least one dose of SP and 16/471 (3.4%) in those who received placebo, prevalence ratio 0.89 (0.44,1.8) P = 0.742. The protective efficacy of SP against episodes of clinical malaria was 53% (95% CI 37%, 65%). Treatment with SP was safe and well tolerated; no serious adverse events related to SP administration were observed. Mortality following discharge from hospital was low among children who received SP or placebo (6 in the SP group and 9 in the placebo group respectively).

Conclusions

Intermittent treatment with SP did not reduce the proportion of previously anaemic children with moderate or severe anaemia at the end of the malaria season, although it prevented malaria. The combination of appropriate antimalarial treatment plus one month of iron supplementation and good access to healthcare during follow-up proved effective in restoring haemoglobin to an acceptable level in the Gambian setting.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00131716","term_id":"NCT00131716"}}NCT00131716     

Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus infection and hospitalization in high-risk patients in the year following detection

Background

Many studies have evaluated methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) infections during single hospitalizations and subsequent readmissions to the same institution. None have assessed the comprehensive burden of MRSA infection in the period after hospital discharge while accounting for healthcare utilization across institutions.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adult patients insured by Harvard Pilgrim Health Care who were newly-detected to harbor MRSA between January 1991 and December 2003 at a tertiary care medical center. We evaluated all MRSA-attributable infections associated with hospitalization in the year following new detection, regardless of hospital location. Data were collected on comorbidities, healthcare utilization, mortality and MRSA outcomes. Of 591 newly-detected MRSA carriers, 23% were colonized and 77% were infected upon detection. In the year following detection, 196 (33%) patients developed 317 discrete and unrelated MRSA infections. The most common infections were pneumonia (34%), soft tissue (27%), and primary bloodstream (18%) infections. Infections occurred a median of 56 days post-detection. Of all infections, 26% involved bacteremia, and 17% caused MRSA-attributable death. During the admission where MRSA was newly-detected, 14% (82/576) developed subsequent infection. Of those surviving to discharge, 24% (114/482) developed post-discharge infections in the year following detection. Half (99/185, 54%) of post-discharge infections caused readmission, and most (104/185, 55%) occurred over 90 days post-discharge.

Conclusions/Significance

In high-risk tertiary care patients, newly-detected MRSA carriage confers large risks of infection and substantial attributable mortality in the year following acquisition. Most infections occur post-discharge, and 18% of infections associated with readmission occurred in hospitals other than the one where MRSA was newly-detected. Despite gains in reducing MRSA infections during hospitalization, the risk of MRSA infection among critically and chronically ill carriers persists after discharge and warrants targeted prevention strategies.     

High Prevalence of Malaria Parasitemia and Anemia among Hospitalized Children in Rakai,Uganda

Background

There is a paucity of data on malaria among hospitalized children in malaria endemic areas. We determined the prevalence, presentation and treatment outcomes of malaria and anemia among children in two hospitals in Rakai, Uganda.

Methods

Children under five years hospitalized in Kalisizo hospital or Bikira health center in Rakai district, Uganda between May 2011 and May 2012 were enrolled and followed-up until discharge, death or referral. Data were collected on social-demographic characteristics, current and past illnesses and clinical signs and symptoms. Blood smears, hemoglobin (Hgb) levels and HIV testing were performed from finger/heel prick blood. The associations between malaria infection and other factors were estimated using log-binomial regression to estimate adjusted prevalence risk ratios (aPRR) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs), controlling for clustering at health facilities.

Results

2471 children were enrolled. The most common medical presentations were fever (96.2%), cough (61.7%), vomiting (44.2%), diarrhea (20.8%), and seizures (16.0%). The prevalence of malaria parasitemia was 54.6%. Children with malaria were more likely to present with a history of fever (aPRR 2.23; CI 1.18–4.24) and seizures (aPRR 1.12; CI 1.09–1.16). Confirmed malaria was significantly lower among girls than boys (aPRR 0.92; CI 0.91–0.93), HIV infected children (aPRR 0.60 CI 0.52–0.71), and children with diarrhea (aPRR 0.76; CI 0.65–0.90). The overall prevalence of anemia (Hgb<10 g/dl) was 56.3% and severe anemia (Hgb<6 g/dL) was 17.8%. Among children with severe anemia 76.8% had malaria parasitemia, of whom 93.1% received blood transfusion. Malaria associated mortality was 0.6%.

Conclusion

There was a high prevalence of malaria parasitemia and anemia among inpatient children under five years. Malaria prevention is a priority in this population.     

Predictive Validity of the Suicide Trigger Scale (STS-3) for Post-Discharge Suicide Attempt in High-Risk Psychiatric Inpatients

Background

The greatly increased risk of suicide after psychiatric hospitalization is a critical problem, yet we are unable to identify individuals who would attempt suicide upon discharge. The Suicide Trigger Scale v.3 (STS-3), was designed to measure the construct of an affective ‘suicide trigger state’ hypothesized to precede a suicide attempt (SA). This study aims to test the predictive validity of the STS-3 for post-discharge SA on a high-risk psychiatric-inpatient sample.

Methods

The STS-3, and a psychological test battery measuring suicidality, mood, impulsivity, trauma history, and attachment style were administered to 161 adult psychiatric patients hospitalized following suicidal ideation (SI) or SA. Receiver Operator Characteristic and logistic regression analyses were used to assess prediction of SA in the 6-month period following discharge from hospitalization.

Results

STS-3 scores for the patients who made post-discharge SA followed a bimodal distribution skewed to high and low scores, thus a distance from median transform was applied to the scores. The transformed score was a significant predictor of post-discharge SA (AUC 0.731), and a subset of six STS-3 scale items was identified that produced improved prediction of post-discharge SA (AUC 0.814). Scores on C-SSRS and BSS were not predictive. Patients with ultra-high (90^th percentile) STS-3 scores differed significantly from ultra-low (10^th percentile) scorers on measures of affective intensity, depression, impulsiveness, abuse history, and attachment security.

Conclusion

STS-3 transformed scores at admission to the psychiatric hospital predict suicide attempts following discharge among the high-risk group of suicidal inpatients. Patients with high transformed scores appear to comprise two clinically distinct groups; an impulsive, affectively intense, fearfully attached group with high raw STS-3 scores and a low-impulsivity, low affect and low trauma-reporting group with low raw STS-3 scores. These groups may correspond to low-plan and planned suicide attempts, respectively, but this remains to be established by future research.     

Data-Driven Decisions for Reducing Readmissions for Heart Failure: General Methodology and Case Study

Background

Several studies have focused on stratifying patients according to their level of readmission risk, fueled in part by incentive programs in the U.S. that link readmission rates to the annual payment update by Medicare. Patient-specific predictions about readmission have not seen widespread use because of their limited accuracy and questions about the efficacy of using measures of risk to guide clinical decisions. We construct a predictive model for readmissions for congestive heart failure (CHF) and study how its predictions can be used to perform patient-specific interventions. We assess the cost-effectiveness of a methodology that combines prediction and decision making to allocate interventions. The results highlight the importance of combining predictions with decision analysis.

Methods

We construct a statistical classifier from a retrospective database of 793 hospital visits for heart failure that predicts the likelihood that patients will be rehospitalized within 30 days of discharge. We introduce a decision analysis that uses the predictions to guide decisions about post-discharge interventions. We perform a cost-effectiveness analysis of 379 additional hospital visits that were not included in either the formulation of the classifiers or the decision analysis. We report the performance of the methodology and show the overall expected value of employing a real-time decision system.

Findings

For the cohort studied, readmissions are associated with a mean cost of $13,679 with a standard error of $1,214. Given a post-discharge plan that costs $1,300 and that reduces 30-day rehospitalizations by 35%, use of the proposed methods would provide an 18.2% reduction in rehospitalizations and save 3.8% of costs.

Conclusions

Classifiers learned automatically from patient data can be joined with decision analysis to guide the allocation of post-discharge support to CHF patients. Such analyses are especially valuable in the common situation where it is not economically feasible to provide programs to all patients.     

Derivation and validation of an index to predict early death or unplanned readmission after discharge from hospital to the community

Background

Readmissions to hospital are common, costly and often preventable. An easy-to-use index to quantify the risk of readmission or death after discharge from hospital would help clinicians identify patients who might benefit from more intensive post-discharge care. We sought to derive and validate an index to predict the risk of death or unplanned readmission within 30 days after discharge from hospital to the community.

Methods

In a prospective cohort study, 48 patient-level and admission-level variables were collected for 4812 medical and surgical patients who were discharged to the community from 11 hospitals in Ontario. We used a split-sample design to derive and validate an index to predict the risk of death or nonelective readmission within 30 days after discharge. This index was externally validated using administrative data in a random selection of 1 000 000 Ontarians discharged from hospital between 2004 and 2008.

Results

Of the 4812 participating patients, 385 (8.0%) died or were readmitted on an unplanned basis within 30 days after discharge. Variables independently associated with this outcome (from which we derived the nmemonic “LACE”) included length of stay (“L”); acuity of the admission (“A”); comorbidity of the patient (measured with the Charlson comorbidity index score) (“C”); and emergency department use (measured as the number of visits in the six months before admission) (“E”). Scores using the LACE index ranged from 0 (2.0% expected risk of death or urgent readmission within 30 days) to 19 (43.7% expected risk). The LACE index was discriminative (C statistic 0.684) and very accurate (Hosmer–Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic 14.1, p = 0.59) at predicting outcome risk.

Interpretation

The LACE index can be used to quantify risk of death or unplanned readmission within 30 days after discharge from hospital. This index can be used with both primary and administrative data. Further research is required to determine whether such quantification changes patient care or outcomes.Readmission to hospital and death are adverse patient outcomes that are serious, common and costly.^1,2 Several studies suggest that focused care after discharge can improve post-discharge outcomes.^3–7 Being able to accurately predict the risk of poor outcomes after hospital discharge would allow health care workers to focus post-discharge interventions on patients who are at highest risk of poor post-discharge outcomes. Further, policy-makers have expressed interest in either penalizing hospitals with relatively high rates of readmission or rewarding hospitals with relatively low expected rates.⁸ To implement this approach, a validated method of standardizing readmission rates is needed.⁹Two validated models for predicting risk of readmission after hospital discharge have been published.^10,11 However, these models are impractical to clinicians. Both require area-level information (e.g., neighbourhood socio-economic status and community-specific rates of admission) that is not readily available. Getting this information requires access to detailed tables, thereby making the model impractical. Second, both models are so complex that risk estimates cannot be attained from them without the aid of special software. Although these models have been used by health-system planners in the United Kingdom, we are unaware of any clinicians who use them when preparing patients for hospital discharge.Our primary objective was to derive and validate a clinically useful index to quantify the risk of early death or unplanned readmission among patients discharged from hospital to the community.     

Two Distinct Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease (COPD) Phenotypes Are Associated with High Risk of Mortality

Rationale

In COPD patients, mortality risk is influenced by age, severity of respiratory disease, and comorbidities. With an unbiased statistical approach we sought to identify clusters of COPD patients and to examine their mortality risk.

Methods

Stable COPD subjects (n = 527) were classified using hierarchical cluster analysis of clinical, functional and imaging data. The relevance of this classification was validated using prospective follow-up of mortality.

Results

The most relevant patient classification was that based on three clusters (phenotypes). Phenotype 1 included subjects at very low risk of mortality, who had mild respiratory disease and low rates of comorbidities. Phenotype 2 and 3 were at high risk of mortality. Phenotype 2 included younger subjects with severe airflow limitation, emphysema and hyperinflation, low body mass index, and low rates of cardiovascular comorbidities. Phenotype 3 included older subjects with less severe respiratory disease, but higher rates of obesity and cardiovascular comorbidities. Mortality was associated with the severity of airflow limitation in Phenotype 2 but not in Phenotype 3 subjects, and subjects in Phenotype 2 died at younger age.

Conclusions

We identified three COPD phenotypes, including two phenotypes with high risk of mortality. Subjects within these phenotypes may require different therapeutic interventions to improve their outcome.     

Is Health Aid Reaching the Poor? Analysis of Household Data from Aid Recipient Countries

Objective

To determine the extent to which the narrowing of child mortality across wealth gradients has been related to foreign aid to the health sector in low- and middle-income countries.

Methods

Mortality and wealth data on 989,901 under-5 children from 957,674 households in 49 aid recipient countries in Africa, Asia, South America, and the Caribbean between 1993 and 2012 were used in the analysis. Declines in under-5 mortality in the four poorest wealth quantiles were compared to the decline among the wealthiest at varying levels of health aid per capita using fixed effects multivariable regression models and controlling for maternal education, urbanization, and domestic spending on health among recipient countries.

Results

Each additional dollar in total health aid per capita was associated with 5.7 fewer deaths per 10,000 child-years among children in the poorest relative to the wealthiest households (p<0.001). This was also true when measured in percent declines (1.90% faster decline in under-5 mortality among the poorest compared with the wealthiest with each dollar in total health aid, p = 0.008). The association was stronger when using health aid specifically for malaria than total health aid, 12.60% faster decline among the poorest compared with the wealthiest with each dollar in malaria aid, p = 0.001.

Conclusions

Foreign aid to the health sector is preferentially related to reductions in under-5 mortality among the poorest compared with the wealthiest. Health aid addressing malaria, which imposes a disproportionate burden among the poor, may explain the observed effect.     

Risk factors for pre-treatment mortality among HIV-infected children in rural Zambia: a cohort study

Background

Many HIV-infected children in sub-Saharan Africa enter care at a late stage of disease. As preparation of the child and family for antiretroviral therapy (ART) can take several clinic visits, some children die prior to ART initiation. This study was undertaken to determine mortality rates and clinical predictors of mortality during the period prior to ART initiation.

Methods

A prospective cohort study of HIV-infected treatment-naïve children was conducted between September 2007 and September 2010 at the HIV clinic at Macha Hospital in rural Southern Province, Zambia. HIV-infected children younger than 16 years of age who were treatment-naïve at study enrollment were eligible for analysis. Mortality rates prior to ART initiation were calculated and risk factors for mortality were evaluated.

Results

351 children were included in the study, of whom 210 (59.8%) were eligible for ART at study enrollment. Among children ineligible for ART at enrollment, 6 children died (mortality rate: 0.33; 95% CI:0.15, 0.74). Among children eligible at enrollment, 21 children died before initiation of ART and their mortality rate (2.73 per 100 person-years; 95% CI:1.78, 4.18) was significantly higher than among children ineligible for ART (incidence rate ratio: 8.20; 95% CI:3.20, 24.83). In both groups, mortality was highest in the first three months of follow-up. Factors associated with mortality included younger age, anemia and lower weight-for-age z-score at study enrollment.

Conclusions

These results underscore the need to increase efforts to identify HIV-infected children at an earlier age and stage of disease progression so they can enroll in HIV care and treatment programs prior to becoming eligible for ART and these deaths can be prevented.     

Prognosis following Upper Gastrointestinal Bleeding

Background

Upper gastrointestinal (GI) bleeding is one of the most common, high risk emergency disorders in the western world. Almost nothing has been reported on longer term prognosis following upper GI bleeding. The aim of this study was to establish mortality up to three years following hospital admission with upper GI bleeding and its relationship with aetiology, co-morbidities and socio-demographic factors.

Methods

Systematic record linkage of hospital inpatient and mortality data for 14 212 people in Wales, UK, hospitalised with upper GI bleeding between 1999 and 2004 with three year follow-up to 2007. The main outcome measures were mortality rates, standardised mortality ratios (SMRs) and relative survival.

Results

Mortality at three years was 36.7% overall, based on 5215 fatalities. It was highest for upper GI malignancy (95% died within three years) and varices (52%). Compared with the general population, mortality was increased 27-fold during the first month after admission. It fell to 4.3 by month four, but remained significantly elevated during every month throughout the three years following admission.The most important independent prognostic predictors of mortality at three years were older age (mortality increased 53 fold for people aged 85 years and over compared with those under 40 years); oesophageal and gastric/duodenal malignancy (48 and 32 respectively) and gastric varices aetiologies (2.8) when compared with other bleeds; non-upper GI malignancy, liver disease and renal failure co-morbidities (15, 7.9 and 3.9); social deprivation (29% increase for quintile V vs I); incident bleeds as an inpatient (31% vs admitted with bleeding) and male patients (25% vs female).

Conclusion

Our study shows a high late as well as early mortality for upper GI bleeding, with very poor longer term prognosis following bleeding due to malignancies and varices. Aetiologies with the worst prognosis were often associated with high levels of social deprivation.     

Morbidity from malaria in children in the year after they had received intermittent preventive treatment of malaria: a randomised trial

Background

Interventions that reduce exposure to malaria infection may lead to delayed malaria morbidity and mortality. We investigated whether intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in children (IPTc) was associated with an increase in the incidence of malaria after cessation of the intervention.

Methods

An individually randomised, trial of IPTc, comparing three courses of sulphadoxine pyrimethamine (SP) plus amodiaquine (AQ) with placebos was implemented in children aged 3–59 months during the 2008 malaria transmission season in Burkina Faso. All children in the trial were given a long lasting insecticide treated net; 1509 children received SP+AQ and 1505 received placebos. Passive surveillance for malaria was maintained until the end of the subsequent malaria transmission season in 2009, and active surveillance for malaria infection, anaemia and malnutrition was conducted.

Results

On thousand, four hundred and sixteen children (93.8%) and 1399 children (93.0%) initially enrolled in the intervention and control arms of the trial respectively were followed during the 2009 malaria transmission season. During the period July 2009 to November 2009, incidence rates of clinical malaria were 3.84 (95%CI; 3.67–4.02) and 3.45 (95%CI; 3.29–3.62) episodes per child during the follow up period in children who had previously received IPT or placebos, indicating a small increase in risk for children in the former intervention arm (IRR = 1.12; 95%CI 1.04–1.20) (P = 0.003). Children who had received SP+AQ had a lower prevalence of malaria infection (adjusted PR: 0.88 95%CI: 0.79–0.98) (P = 0.04) but they had a higher parasite density (P = 0.001) if they were infected. There was no evidence that the risks of moderately severe anaemia (Hb<8 g/dL), wasting, stunting, or of being underweight in children differed between treatment arms.

Conclusion

IPT with SP+AQ was associated with a small increase in the incidence of clinical malaria in the subsequent malaria transmission season.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00738946","term_id":"NCT00738946"}}NCT00738946     

Are Long-Lasting Insecticidal Nets Effective for Preventing Childhood Deaths among Non-Net Users? A Community-Based Cohort Study in Western Kenya

Background

Increasing the distribution and use of insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) in Sub-Saharan Africa has made controlling malaria with ITNs more practical. We evaluated community effects induced by ITNs, specifically long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs), under ordinary conditions in an endemic malaria area of Western Kenya.

Methods

Using the database from Mbita Health and Demographic Surveillance System (HDSS), children younger than 5 years old were assessed over four survey periods. We analyzed the effect of bed net usage, LLIN density and population density of young people around a child on all-cause child mortality (ACCM) rates using Cox PH models.

Results

During the study, 14,554 children were followed and 250 deaths were recorded. The adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) for LLIN usage compared with no net usage were not significant among the models: 1.08 (95%CI 0.76–1.52), 1.19 (95%CI 0.69–2.08) and 0.92 (95%CI 0.42–2.02) for LLIN users, untreated net users, and any net users, respectively. A significant increasing linear trend in risk across LLIN density quartiles (HR = 1.25; 95%CI 1.03–1.51) and a decreasing linear trend in risk across young population density quartiles among non-net user children (HR = 0.77; 95%CI 0.63–0.94) were observed.

Conclusions

Although our data showed that current LLIN coverage level (about 35%) could induce a community effect to protect children sleeping without bed nets even in a malaria-endemic area, it appears that a better system is needed to monitor the current malaria situation globally in order to optimize malaria control programs with limited resources.     

Acute Respiratory Failure in Critically Ill Patients with Interstitial Lung Disease

Background

Patients with chronic known or unknown interstitial lung disease (ILD) may present with severe respiratory flares that require intensive management. Outcome data in these patients are scarce.

Patients and Methods

Clinical and radiological features were collected in 83 patients with ILD-associated acute respiratory failure (ARF). Determinants of hospital mortality and response to corticosteroid therapy were identified by logistic regression.

Results

Hospital and 1-year mortality rates were 41% and 54% respectively. Pulmonary hypertension, computed tomography (CT) fibrosis and acute kidney injury were independently associated with mortality (odds ratio (OR) 4.55; 95% confidence interval (95%CI) (1.20–17.33); OR, 7.68; (1.78–33.22) and OR 10.60; (2.25–49.97) respectively). Response to steroids was higher in patients with shorter time from hospital admission to corticosteroid therapy. Patients with fibrosis on CT had lower response to steroids (OR, 0.03; (0.005–0.21)). In mechanically ventilated patients, overdistension induced by high PEEP settings was associated with CT fibrosis and hospital mortality.

Conclusion

Mortality is high in ILD-associated ARF. CT and echocardiography are valuable prognostic tools. Prompt corticosteroid therapy may improve survival.     

Burden of Complicated Malaria in a Densely Forested Bastar Region of Chhattisgarh State (Central India)

Background

A prospective study on severe and complicated malaria was undertaken in the tribal dominated area of Bastar division, Chhattisgarh (CG), Central India, with an objective to understand the clinical epidemiology of complicated malaria in patients attending at a referral hospital.

Methods

Blood smears, collected from the general medicine and pediatric wards of a government tertiary health care facility located in Jagdalpur, CG, were microscopically examined for malaria parasite from July 2010 to December 2013. The Plasmodium falciparum positive malaria cases who met enrollment criteria and provided written informed consent were enrolled under different malaria categories following WHO guidelines. PCR was performed to reconfirm the presence of P.falciparum mono infection among enrolled cases. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis was done to identify different risk factors using STATA 11.0.

Results

A total of 40,924 cases were screened for malaria. The prevalence of malaria and P.falciparum associated complicated malaria (severe and cerebral both) in the hospital was 6% and 0.81%, respectively. P.falciparum malaria prevalence, severity and associated mortality in this region peaked at the age of>4–5 years and declined with increasing age. P.falciparum malaria was significantly more prevalent in children than adults (P<0.00001). Among adults, males had significantly more P.falciparum malaria than females (P<0.00001). Case fatality rate due to cerebral malaria and severe malaria was, respectively, 32% and 9% among PCR confirmed mono P.falciparum cases. Coma was the only independent predictor of mortality in multivariate regression analysis. Mortality was significantly associated with multi-organ complication score (P = 0.0003).

Conclusion

This study has revealed that the pattern of morbidity and mortality in this part of India is very different from earlier reported studies from India. We find that the peak morbidity and mortality in younger children regardless of seasonality. This suggests that this age group needs special care for control and clinical management.     

Risk for hospital readmission following bariatric surgery

Background and Objectives

Complications resulting in hospital readmission are important concerns for those considering bariatric surgery, yet present understanding of the risk for these events is limited to a small number of patient factors. We sought to identify demographic characteristics, concomitant morbidities, and perioperative factors associated with hospital readmission following bariatric surgery.

Methods

We report on a prospective observational study of 24,662 patients undergoing primary RYGB and 26,002 patients undergoing primary AGB at 249 and 317 Bariatric Surgery Centers of Excellence (BSCOE), respectively, in the United States from January 2007 to August 2009.Data were collected using standardized assessments of demographic factors and comorbidities, as well as longitudinal records of hospital readmissions, complications, and mortality.

Results

The readmission rate was 5.8% for RYGB and 1.2% for AGB patients 30 days after discharge. The greatest predictors for readmission following RYGB were prolonged length of stay (adjusted odds ratio [OR], 2.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.0–2.7), open surgery (OR, 1.8; CI, 1.4–2.2), and pseudotumor cerebri (OR, 1.6; CI, 1.1–2.4). Prolonged length of stay (OR, 2.3; CI, 1.6–3.3), history of deep venous thrombosis or pulmonary embolism (OR, 2.1; CI, 1.3–3.3), asthma (OR, 1.5; CI, 1.1–2.1), and obstructive sleep apnea (OR, 1.5; CI, 1.1–1.9) were associated with the greatest increases in readmission risk for AGB. The 30-day mortality rate was 0.14% for RYGB and 0.02% for AGB.

Conclusion

Readmission rates are low and mortality is very rare following bariatric surgery, but risk for both is significantly higher after RYGB. Predictors of readmission were disparate for the two procedures. Results do not support excluding patients with certain comorbidities since any reductions in overall readmission rates would be very small on the absolute risk scale. Future research should evaluate the efficacy of post-surgical managed care plans for patients at higher risk for readmission and adverse events.     

A Prospective Study of the Prevalence of Tuberculosis and Bacteraemia in Bangladeshi Children with Severe Malnutrition and Pneumonia Including an Evaluation of Xpert MTB/RIF Assay

Background

Severe malnutrition is a risk factor for pneumonia due to a wide range of pathogens but aetiological data are limited and the role of Mycobacterium tuberculosis is uncertain.

Methods

We prospectively investigated severely malnourished young children (<5 years) with radiological pneumonia admitted over a 15-month period. Investigations included blood culture, sputa for microscopy and mycobacterial culture. Xpert MTB/RIF assay was introduced during the study. Study children were followed for 12 weeks following their discharge from the hospital.

Results

405 eligible children were enrolled, with a median age of 10 months. Bacterial pathogens were isolated from blood culture in 18 (4.4%) children, of which 72% were Gram negatives. Tuberculosis was confirmed microbiologically in 7% (27/396) of children that provided sputum - 10 by culture, 21 by Xpert MTB/RIF assay, and 4 by both tests. The diagnostic yield from induced sputum was 6% compared to 3.5% from gastric aspirate. Sixty (16%) additional children had tuberculosis diagnosed clinically that was not microbiologically confirmed. Most confirmed tuberculosis cases did not have a positive contact history or positive tuberculin test. The sensitivity and specificity of Xpert MTB/RIF assay compared to culture was 67% (95% CI: 24–94) and 92% (95% CI: 87–95) respectively. Overall case-fatality rate was 17% and half of the deaths occurred in home following discharge from the hospital.

Conclusion and Significance

TB was common in severely malnourished Bangladeshi children with pneumonia. X-pert MTB/RIF assay provided higher case detection rate compared to sputum microscopy and culture. The high mortality among the study children underscores the need for further research aimed at improved case detection and management for better outcomes.     

Malaria morbidity in children in the year after they had received intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in Mali: a randomized control trial

Background

Intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in children (IPTc) is a promising strategy for malaria control. A study conducted in Mali in 2008 showed that administration of three courses of IPTc with sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) and amodiaquine (AQ) at monthly intervals reduced clinical malaria, severe malaria and malaria infection by >80% in children under 5 years of age. Here we report the results of a follow-on study undertaken to establish whether children who had received IPTc would be at increased risk of malaria during the subsequent malaria transmission season.

Methods

Morbidity from malaria and the prevalence of malaria parasitaemia and anaemia were measured in children who had previously received IPTc with SP and AQ using similar surveillance methods to those employed during the previous intervention period.

Results

1396 of 1508 children (93%) who had previously received IPTc and 1406 of 1508 children (93%) who had previously received placebos were followed up during the high malaria transmission season of the year following the intervention. Incidence rates of clinical malaria during the post-intervention transmission season (July –November 2009) were 1.87 (95% CI 1.76 –1.99) and 1.73 (95% CI; 1.62–1.85) episodes per child year in the previous intervention and placebo groups respectively; incidence rate ratio (IRR) 1.09 (95% CI 0.99 –1.21) (P = 0.08). The prevalence of malaria infection was similar in the two groups, 7.4% versus 7.5%, prevalence ratio (PR) of 0.99 (95% CI 0.73–1.33) (P = 0.95). At the end of post-intervention malaria transmission season, the prevalence of anaemia, defined as a haemoglobin concentration<11g/dL, was similar in the two groups (56.2% versus 55.6%; PR = 1.01 [95% CI 0.91 – 1.12]) (P = 0.84).

Conclusion

IPTc with SP+AQ was not associated with an increase in incidence of malaria episodes, prevalence of malaria infection or anaemia in the subsequent malaria transmission season.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00738946","term_id":"NCT00738946"}}NCT00738946