Cancer incidence in Nigeria: A report from population-based cancer registries

Introduction: Cancer has become a major source of morbidity and mortality globally. Despite the threat that cancer poses to public health in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), few countries in this region have data on cancer incidence. In this paper, we present estimates of cancer incidence in Nigeria based on data from 2 population-based cancer registries (PBCR) that are part of the Nigerian national cancer registry program. Materials and methods: We analyzed data from 2 population based cancer registries in Nigeria, the Ibadan Population Based Cancer Registry (IBCR) and the Abuja Population Based Cancer Registry (ABCR) covering a 2 year period 2009-2010. Data are reported by registry, gender and in age groups. We present data on the age specific incidence rates of all invasive cancers and report age standardized rates of the most common cancers stratified by gender in both registries. Results: The age standardized incidence rate for all invasive cancers from the IBCR was 66.4 per 100000 men and 130.6 per 100000 women. In ABCR it was 58.3 per 100000 for men and 138.6 per 100000 for women. A total of 3393 cancer cases were reported by the IBCR. Of these cases, 34% (1155) were seen among males and 66% (2238) in females. In Abuja over the same period, 1128 invasive cancers were reported. 33.6% (389) of these cases were in males and 66.4% (768) in females. Mean age of diagnosis of all cancers in men for Ibadan and Abuja were 51.1 and 49.9 years respectively. For women, mean age of diagnosis of all cancers in Ibadan and Abuja were 49.1 and 45.4 respectively. Breast and cervical cancer were the commonest cancers among women and prostate cancer the most common among men. Breast cancer age standardized incidence rate (ASR) at the IBCR was 52.0 per 100000 in IBCR and 64.6 per 100000 in ABCR. Cervical cancer ASR at the IBCR was 36.0 per 100000 and 30.3 per 100000 at the ABCR. The observed differences in incidence rates of breast, cervical and prostate cancer between Ibadan and Abuja, were not statistically significant. Conclusion: Cancer incidence data from two population based cancer registries in Nigeria suggests substantial increase in incidence of breast cancer in recent times. This paper highlights the need for high quality regional cancer registries in Nigeria and other SSA countries.     

Epidemiology of laryngeal cancer in Brazil: Historical data from 2000 to 2019

IntroductionTo determine the incidence, morbidity, and mortality rate of laryngeal cancer in two decades and its epidemiological, clinical, and histological characteristics by sex in Brazil.MethodsThis ecological study used three reliable sources of secondary data: population- and hospital-based cancer registries and the national mortality database. All data available from 2000 to 2019 were considered.ResultsThe incidence of male laryngeal cancer decreased from 9.20 to 4.95 per 100,000 from 2000 to 2018, while mortality slightly decreased from 3.37 to 3.30 per 100,000 from 2000 to 2019. In the same period, the female incidence decreased from 1.26 to 0.48 per 100,000; however, mortality slightly increased from 0.34 to 0.36 per 100,000. Of 221,566 individuals with head and neck cancer, 27 % presented laryngeal cancer. The median age was 61 years (54−69), and most individuals were male (86.6 %), smokers (66.2 %), diagnosed with locally advanced cancer (66.7 %), and squamous cell carcinoma as the main histological type (93.2 %). Male tended to be older (p < 0.001), white (p < 0.001), smokers (p < 0.001), and present late treatment initiation (p < 0.001) and early death (p < 0.001) compared with female.ConclusionThe male laryngeal cancer affected mainly at productive age but with a decreased incidence, probably due to a reduction in smoking habit. However, mortality did not change, which may be explained by the late diagnosis and lack of access to radiotherapy.     

The role of hospital-based cancer registries in low and middle income countries-The Nigerian Case Study

Background: The incidence of cancer continues to rise all over the world and current projections show that there will be 1.27 million new cases and almost 1 million deaths by 2030. In view of the rising incidence of cancer in sub-Saharan Africa, urgent steps are needed to guide appropriate policy, health sector investment and resource allocation. We posit that hospital based cancer registries (HBCR) are fundamental sources of information on the frequent cancer sites in limited resource regions where population level data is often unavailable. In regions where population based cancer registries are not in existence, HBCR are beneficial for policy and planning. Materials and methods: Nineteen of twenty-one cancer registries in Nigeria met the definition of HBCR, and from these registries, we requested data on cancer cases recorded from January 2009 to December 2010. 16 of the 19 registries (84%) responded. Data on year hospital was established; year cancer registry was established, no. of pathologists and types of oncology services available in each tertiary health facility were shown. Analysis of relative frequency of cancers in each HBCR, the basis of diagnosis recorded in the HBCR and the total number of cases recorded by gender was carried out. Results: The total number of cancers registered in these 11 hospital based cancer registries in 2009 and 2010 was 6484. The number of new cancer cases recorded annually in these hospital based cancer registries on average was 117 cases in males and I77 cases in females. Breast and cervical cancer were the most common cancers seen in women while prostate cancer was the commonest among men seen in these tertiary hospitals. Conclusion: Information provided by HBCR is beneficial and can be utilized for the improvement of cancer care delivery systems in low and middle income countries where there are no population based cancer registries.     

Cancer in Guam and Hawaii: A comparison of two U.S. Island populations

BackgroundCancer disparities within and across populations provide insight into the influence of lifestyle, environment, and genetic factors on cancer risk.MethodsGuam cancer incidence and mortality were compared to that of Hawaii using data from their respective population-based, central cancer registries.ResultsIn 2009–2013, overall cancer incidence was substantially lower in Guam than in Hawaii for both sexes while overall cancer mortality was higher for Guam males. Cervical cancer incidence and prostate cancer mortality were higher in Guam. Both incidence and mortality were higher among Guam men for cancers of the lung & bronchus, liver & intrahepatic bile duct, and nasopharynx; Chamorro men were disproportionately affected by these cancers. Filipinos and Whites in Guam had lower overall cancer incidence compared to Filipinos and Whites in Hawaii. Although breast cancer incidence was significantly lower in Guam compared to Hawaii, women in Guam presented at younger ages and with rarer disease histologies such as inflammatory carcinoma were more prevalent. Guam patients were also diagnosed at younger ages for cancers of bladder, pancreas, colon & rectum, liver & intrahepatic bile duct, lung & bronchus, stomach, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, and leukemia.ConclusionSmoking, infectious agents, and betel nut chewing appear to be important contributors to the burden of cancer in Guam. Earlier onset of cancer in Guam suggests earlier age of exposure to key risk factors and/or a more aggressive pathogenesis. Contrasting cancer patterns within Guam and between Guam and Hawaii underscore the potential influence of genes, lifestyle, and environmental factors on cancer development and progression.     

Methodological aspects of estimating rare cancer prevalence in Europe: The experience of the RARECARE project

This paper describes the usage and the performance evaluation of the completeness index method in the ‘Surveillance of Rare Cancers in Europe project’ (RARECARE) for estimating rare cancer prevalence in Europe. The 15-year prevalence at 1st January 2003 for 255 cancers is obtained from a pool of 22 RARECARE cancer registries (CRs). Incidence and survival models are applied to the RARECARE database to estimate the parameters from which the completeness indices are calculated. Complete prevalence is obtained adjusting the observed 15-year prevalence by the completeness index, to account for those cancer survivors diagnosed before the CR activity started. Main factors influencing the performance of the completeness index method for rare cancers are the same as for common cancers: age distribution of incidence and lethality of the cancer. For cancers occurring in the elderly, with low survival rates and consequently a restricted number of long-term survivors we obtained completeness indices higher than 0.9. Values lower than 0.7 correspond to those cancers with good prognosis and/or incidence more concentrated at the younger ages, indicating that 15 years of follow up are insufficient to detect all prevalent cases. Validation analysis shows that for a restricted subgroup of rare cancers with very low incidence and low survival, the completeness indices were not able to adequately correct the observed prevalence even considering a registration period of 20 years. On average, sensitivity analyses show a slight overestimation of complete prevalence for rare and common cancers whose increasing incidence is known in literature. RARECARE is the largest project on rare cancers conducted to date. Improving health care programs for cancer survivors is a public health priority and prevalence data which provides important information in this field should be regularly asked to Member States and included in the EU health statistics.     

The burden of cervical cancer in Vietnam: Synthesis of the evidence

There is currently no national cervical screening or HPV immunization program in Vietnam. This study aims to synthesize available data on the burden of disease and to project the burden of cervical cancer to 2049 if no major interventions are implemented. We reviewed published data sources on risk factors for HPV prevalence, high-grade lesions, cervical cancer incidence and mortality in Vietnam from 1990 to 2017. We then used the available data to project the number of new cervical cancer cases for the period 2013–2049. Data on cervical cancer incidence and mortality in Vietnam are limited; two Vietnamese cancer registries have been reported on by the International Agency for Research on Cancer, which cover urban populations representing ∼20% of the national population. The reported age-standardized cervical cancer incidence in Hanoi was 6.7 (1993–1997), compared to 28.8 and 14.1 per 100,000 women in Ho Chi Minh City (1995–1998 and 2009–2012, respectively). Cancer mortality data are not uniformly available from cancer registries or mortality surveys in Vietnam because cause of death has not been routinely ascertained. Based on available urban population registry data, estimated rates in the rural population, and forward projection of existing trends, we estimate that without any further intervention, the number of new cases will increase from 6930 (range 5671–8493) in 2012 to 8562 (range 5775–12,762) in 2049, giving a total of 379,617 (range 276,879–542,941) new cases over the period 2013–2049. These findings help underpin the case for the delivery of HPV vaccination and cervical screening in Vietnam, and support similar initiatives in other low- and middle-income countries.     

National cancer incidence is estimated using the incidence/mortality ratio in countries with local incidence data: Is this estimation correct?

BackgroundIn countries with local cancer registration, the national cancer incidence is usually estimated by multiplying the national mortality by the incidence/mortality (I/M) ratio from pooled registries. This study aims at validating this I/M estimation in France, by a comparison with estimation obtained using the ratio of incidence over hospital discharge (I/HD) or the ratio of incidence over health insurance data (long-duration diseases, I/LDD).MethodsThis comparison was performed for 22 cancer sites over the period 2004–2006. In France, a longitudinal I/M approach was developed relying on incidence and mortality trend analyses; here, the corresponding estimations of national incidence were extracted for 2004–2006. The I/HD and I/LDD estimations were performed using a common cross-sectional methodology.ResultsThe three estimations were found similar for most cancers. The relative differences in incidence rates (vs. I/M) were below 5% for numerous cancers and below 10% for all cancers but three. The highest differences were observed for thyroid cancer (up to +21% in women and +8% in men), skin melanoma (up to +13% in women and +8% in men), and Hodgkin disease in men (up to +15%). Differences were also observed in women aged over 60 for cervical cancer. Except for thyroid cancer, differences were mainly due to the smoothing performed in the I/M approach.ConclusionOur results support the validity of I/M approaches for national estimations, except for thyroid cancer. The longitudinal version of this approach has, furthermore, the advantage of providing smoothed estimations and trend analyses, including useful birth-cohort indicators, and should thus be preferred.     

Accuracy and completeness of the New Zealand Cancer Registry for staging of invasive breast cancer

PurposePopulation based cancer registries are an invaluable resource for monitoring incidence and mortality for many types of cancer. Research and healthcare decisions based on cancer registry data rely on the case completeness and accuracy of recorded data. This study was aimed at assessing completeness and accuracy of breast cancer staging data in the New Zealand Cancer Registry (NZCR) against a regional breast cancer register.MethodologyData from 2562 women diagnosed with invasive primary breast cancer between 1999 and 2011 included in the Waikato Breast Cancer Register (WBCR) were used to audit data held on the same individuals by the NZCR. WBCR data were treated as the benchmark.ResultsOf 2562 cancers, 315(12.3%) were unstaged in the NZCR. For cancers with a known stage in the NZCR, staging accuracy was 94.4%. Lower staging accuracies of 74% and 84% were noted for metastatic and locally invasive (involving skin or chest wall) cancers, respectively, compared with localized (97%) and lymph node positive (94%) cancers. Older age (>80 years), not undergoing therapeutic surgery and higher comorbidity score were significantly (p < 0.01) associated with unstaged cancer. The high proportion of unstaged cancer in the NZCR was noted to have led to an underestimation of the true incidence of metastatic breast cancer by 21%. Underestimation of metastatic cancer was greater for Māori (29.5%) than for NZ European (20.6%) women. Overall 5-year survival rate for unstaged cancer (NZCR) was 55.9%, which was worse than the 5-year survival rate for regional (77.3%), but better than metastatic (12.9%) disease.ConclusionsUnstaged cancer and accuracy of cancer staging in the NZCR are major sources of bias for the NZCR based research. Improving completeness and accuracy of staging data and increasing the rate of TNM cancer stage recording are identified as priorities for strengthening the usefulness of the NZCR.     

Twenty years of melanoma in Victoria,Queensland, and South Australia (1997 – 2016)

BackgroundGiven the high incidence of melanoma in Australia alongside high mortality with later stage disease, we investigated the populations and locations most at risk, to optimise public health activities in areas where intervention is most needed. This study examines trends and identifies significant prognostic factors and potential disparities in incidence, mortality and survival between population groups in Victoria, Queensland and South Australia.MethodsThe analysis includes data from the population-based cancer registries of the three states over a twenty-year period (1997–2016). Age-standardized and age-specific incidence rates were calculated, and long-term trends analysed using Joinpoint Regression. Five-year relative survival estimates for the study population were calculated using the cohort method and multivariable flexible parametric survival models were applied for each jurisdiction to calculate adjusted excess mortality hazard ratios for the key characteristics.ResultsThere were more males with melanoma than females in all the three states. Over 60% of the cases occurred in the 40–74 years age group. Most melanomas had a Breslow thickness less than or equal to 1.0 mm. For males, Victoria and Queensland had a statistically significant increasing trend whereas in South Australia there was a decreasing trend. For females, the incidence rate trend was stable in Victoria but significantly decreasing in South Australia. In Queensland there was an increasing and statistically significant trend from 2006 to 2016. Across all three states there was a reducing incidence rate in the youngest cohort, stabilizing incidence in the 40–59-year-old age group, and increasing in the oldest cohorts. Five-year relative survival decreased with increasing age and with Breslow thickness across all three jurisdictions. Males had between 43%− 46% excess mortality compared to females in all the three states. There was higher risk with increasing age and Breslow thickness, with the largest risk among the 75 + age group and those with a Breslow thickness of > 4 mm.ConclusionIt is the first time that data from these three registries has been analysed together in a uniform way, covering more than half of the Australian population. This study compares the epidemiology of melanoma across three states and provides a better understanding of trends and factors affecting outcome for Australians with melanoma. While there has been some improvement in aspects of incidence and mortality, this has not been evenly achieved across Australia.     

The completeness and timeliness of cancer registration and the implications for measuring cancer burden

BackgroundPopulation based cancer registration provides a critical role in disease surveillance in terms of incidence, survival, cancer cluster investigations and prevalence trends, and therefore high levels of completeness and timeliness are required. This study estimates completeness and variation between early and late registrations in the N. Ireland Cancer Registry (NICR) and assesses the implications for reporting cancer incidence and for registry-based research.MethodsTwo main approaches assessed completeness. For the period 2010–2012, incidence reported in the first year of data publication was compared to incidence reported in subsequent years until 2015. Demographic characteristics and survival of incident cases ascertained before the first publication year were compared to those ascertained in subsequent years. The flow method approach was used to estimate completeness annually after the incident year.ResultsOverall incidence for all cancers increased between the first year of data publication and subsequent years up to 2015, irrespective of year of diagnosis. Late registrations had poorer survival. The flow method approach estimated the completeness of case ascertainment of NICR data to be 96% complete at five years for all cancers combined.ConclusionThe estimated completeness levels for the NICR are comparable to other high quality cancer registries internationally. While data timeliness has little impact on incidence estimates, delays in registration may have implications for specific research studies into incidence and survival. This means that improvements in the timeliness of reporting should be a target for all registries but not at the expense of completeness.     

Reliability of recording uterine cancer in death certification in France and age-specific proportions of deaths from cervix and corpus uteri

French uterine cancer recordings in death certificates include 60% of "uterine cancer, Not Otherwise Specified (NOS)"; this hampers the estimation of mortalities from cervix and corpus uteri cancers. The aims of this work were to study the reliability of uterine cancer recordings in death certificates using a case matching with cancer registries and estimate age-specific proportions of deaths from cervix and corpus uteri cancers among all uterine cancer deaths by a statistical approach that uses incidence and survival data. Deaths from uterine cancer between 1989 and 2001 were extracted from the French National database of causes of death and case-to-case matched to women diagnosed with uterine cancer between 1989 and 1997 in 8 cancer registries. Registry data were considered as "gold-standard". Among the 1825 matched deaths, cancer registries recorded 830 cervix and 995 corpus uteri cancers. In death certificates, 5% and 40% of "true" cervix cancers were respectively coded "corpus" and "uterus, NOS" and 5% and 59% of "true" corpus cancers respectively coded "cervix" and "uterus, NOS". Miscoding cervix cancers was more frequent at advanced ages at death and in deaths at home or in small urban areas. Miscoding corpus cancers was more frequent in deaths at home or in small urban areas. From the statistical method, the estimated proportion of deaths from cervix cancer among all uterine cancer deaths was higher than 95% in women aged 30-40 years old but declined to 35% in women older than 70 years. The study clarifies the reason for poor encoding of uterus cancer mortality and refines the estimation of mortalities from cervix and corpus uteri cancers allowing future studies on the efficacy of cervical cancer screening.     

Staging practices and breast cancer stage among population-based registries in the MENA region

BackgroundAvailability of stage information by population-based cancer registries (PBCR) remains scarce for diverse reasons. Nevertheless, stage is critical cancer control information particularly for cancers amenable to early detection. In the framework of the Global Initiative for Cancer Registry Development (GICR), we present the status of stage data collection and dissemination among registries in the Middle East and Northern Africa (MENA) region as well as the stage distribution of breast cancer patients.MethodsA web-based survey exploring staging practices and breast cancer stage was developed and sent to 30 PBCR in 18 countries of the MENA region.ResultsAmong 23 respondent PBCR, 21 collected stage data, the majority (80%) for all cancers. Fourteen registries used a single classification (9 TNM and 5 SEER), 7 used both staging systems in parallel. Out of 12,888 breast cancer patients (seven registries) 27.7% had unknown TNM stage (11.1% in Oman, 46% in Annaba). When considering only cases with known stage, 65.3% were early cancers (TNM I+II), ranging from 57.9% in Oman to 83.3% in Batna (Algeria), and 9.9% were stage IV cancers. Among the nine registries providing SEER Summary stage for breast cancer cases, stage was unknown in 19% of the cases, (0 in Bahrain, 39% in Kuwait). Stage data were largely absent from the published registry reports.ConclusionDespite wide stage data collection by cancer registries, missing information and low dissemination clearly limit informing efforts on early detection. The use of two classification systems in parallel implies additional workload and might undermine completeness. The favourable results of early cancer (TNM I+II) in two thirds of breast cancer patients needs to be interpreted with caution and followed up in time. Although efforts to improve quality of stage data are needed, our findings are particularly relevant to the WHO Global Breast Cancer Initiative.     

Cancer incidence in Cotonou (Benin), 2014–2016: First results from the cancer Registry of Cotonou

Incidence data from the population cancer registry of Cotonou (Benin) for the three year period 2014–2016 are presented.1086 cancer cases were recorded, 608 cases (56.0%) in women (corresponding to an age standardized incidence rate (ASR) of 78.4 per 100,000) and 478 cases (44.0%) in men (ASR 91.8 per 100,000).Breast and cervical cancer accounted for 49.2% of all cancers in women. Breast cancer (ASR 22.6 per 100,000) was more common than cervical cancer (ASR 14.9 per 100,000) and the mean age of cases was lower. The incidence of prostate cancer (one quarter of all cancers in men), 30.5 per 100,000, was similar to that in other West African registries. Cancers of the liver and digestive tract were also relatively common in both sexes.These are the first data on cancer incidence in Benin, and will be invaluable for the development and evaluation of the National Cancer Control plan.     

National and regional breast cancer incidence and mortality trends in Mexico 2001–2011: Analysis of a population-based database

IntroductionBreast cancer is the most common malignancy in Mexican women since 2006. However, due to a lack of cancer registries, data is scarce. We sought to describe breast cancer trends in Mexico using population-based data from a national database and to analyze geographical and age-related differences in incidence and mortality rates.MethodsAll incident breast cancer cases reported to the National Epidemiological Surveillance System and all breast cancer deaths registered by the National Institute of Statistics and Geography in Mexico from 2001 to 2011 were included. Incidence and mortality rates were calculated for each age group and for 3 geographic regions of the country. Joinpoint regression analysis was performed to examine trends in BC incidence and mortality. We estimated annual percentage change (APC) using weighted least squares log-linear regression.ResultsWe found an increase in the reported national incidence, with an APC of 5.9% (95% CI 4.1–7.7, p < 0.05). Women aged 60–65 had the highest increase in incidence (APC 7.89%; 95% CI 5.5 −10.3, p < 0.05). Reported incidence rates were significantly increased in the Center and in the South of the country, while in the North they remained stable. Mortality rates also showed a significant increase, with an APC of 0.4% (95% CI 0.1–0.7, p < 0.05). Women 85 and older had the highest increase in mortality (APC 2.99%, 95% CI 1.9–4.1; p < 0.05).ConclusionsThe reporting of breast cancer cases in Mexico had a continuous increase, which could reflect population aging, increased availability of screening, an improvement in the number of clinical facilities and better reporting of cases. Although an improvement in the detection of cases is the most likely explanation for our findings, our results point towards an epidemiological transition in Mexico and should help in guiding national policy in developing countries.     

Similarities in the Age-Specific Incidence of Colon and Testicular Cancers

Colon cancers are thought to be an inevitable result of aging, while testicular cancers are thought to develop in only a small fraction of men, beginning in utero. These models of carcinogenesis are, in part, based upon age-specific incidence data. The specific incidence for colon cancer appears to monotonically increase with age, while that of testicular cancer increases to a maximum value at about 35 years of age, then declines to nearly zero by the age of 80. We hypothesized that the age-specific incidence for these two cancers is similar; the apparent difference is caused by a longer development time for colon cancer and the lack of age-specific incidence data for people over 84 years of age. Here we show that a single distribution can describe the age-specific incidence of both colon carcinoma and testicular cancer. Furthermore, this distribution predicts that the specific incidence of colon cancer should reach a maximum at about age 90 and then decrease. Data on the incidence of colon carcinoma for women aged 85–99, acquired from SEER and the US Census, is consistent with this prediction. We conclude that the age specific data for testicular cancers and colon cancers is similar, suggesting that the underlying process leading to the development of these two forms of cancer may be similar.     

Regional disparities in cancer survival in Iran: Insight from a National Surveillance of Cancer Survival in Iran (IRANCANSURV)

Background and objectivesWe aimed to investigate geographical disparity in cancer survival in 9 provincial population-based cancer registries in Iran from 2015 to 2016.Material and methodIn the current study, data from 90,862 adult patients (aged >15 years) diagnosed with cancer were retrieved from 9 population-based cancer registries across Iran. Five-year survival rates were estimated by applying relative survival approaches. We also applied the international cancer survival standard weights for age standardization. Finally, we calculated the excess hazard ratio (EHR) for each province adjusted for age, sex, and cancer sites to estimate the excess hazard ratio of mortality compared to the capital province (Tehran).ResultsThe largest gap in survival was observed in more curable cancer types, including melanoma (41.4%), ovary (32.3%), cervix (35.0%), prostate (26.7%), and rectum (21.4%), while the observed geographical disparity in lethal cancers such as lung, brain, stomach, and pancreas was less than 15%. Compared to Tehran, we found the highest excess hazard of death in Western Azerbaijan (EHR=1.60, 95% CI 1.51, 1.65), Kermanshah (EHR=1.52, 95% CI=1.44, 1.61), and Kerman (EHR=1.46, 95% CI=1.38, 1.53). The hazard ratio of death was almost identical in Isfahan (EHR=1.04, 95% CI=1.03, 1.06) and Tehran provinces.ConclusionProvinces with higher HDI had better survival rates. IRANCANSURV study showed regional disparities in cancer survival in Iran. Cancer patients in provinces with a higher Human Development Index (HDI) had a higher survival rate and lived longer compared to the patients in provinces with medium and low HDI regions.     

Bayesian area–age–period–cohort model with carcinogenesis age effects in estimating cancer mortality

Objective: Area–age–period–cohort (AAPC) model has been widely used in studying the spatial and temporal pattern of disease incidence and mortality rates. However, lack of biological plausibility and ease of interpretability on temporal components especially for age effects are generally the weakness of AAPC models. We develop a Bayesian AAPC model where carcinogenesis age effect is incorporated to explain age effects from the underlying disease process. An autoregressive prior structure and an arbitrary linear constraint are used to solve the nonidentifiability issues. Methods: Two multistage carcinogenesis models are employed to derive the hazard functions to substitute the age effects in the AAPC models. The Iowa county-wide lung cancer mortality data are used for the model fitting and Deviance Information Criteria (DIC) is used for model comparison. Results: Our study shows that conventional AAPC model (DIC = 19,231.30), AAPC model with Armitage–Doll age effect (DIC = 19,233.00) and with two-stage clonal expansion (TSCE) age effect (DIC = 19,234.70) achieved the similar DIC values which indicated consistent model fitting among three models. The spatial pattern shows that the high spatial effects are clustered in the south of Iowa and also in largely populated areas. The lung cancer mortality rate is continuously declining by birth cohorts while increasing by the calendar period until 2000–2004. The age effects show an increasing pattern over time which can be easily explained by Armitage–Doll carcinogenesis model since we assume a log-linear relationship between age and hazard function. Conclusions: Our finding suggests that the proposed Bayesian AAPC model can be used to replace the conventional AAPC model without affecting model performance while providing a more biological sound approach from the underlining disease process.     

Incidence and relative survival of pancreatic adenocarcinoma and pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms in Germany, 2009–2018. An in-depth analysis of two population-based cancer registries

BackgroundPancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms are categorized as neuroendocrine tumors and neuroendocrine carcinomas. Until now, cancer registry reporting of pancreatic cancers does not include a stratification by these two subgroups. We studied the incidence and survival of pancreatic cancer with a special focus on pancreatic neuroendocrine neoplasms.MethodsWe analyzed data from the population-based cancer registries of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) and Saarland (SL), Germany, of the years 2009–2018. We included primary malignant pancreatic tumors and report morphology-specific age-standardized (World Standard population) incidence rates for ages 0–79 years and age-standardized relative survival (period approach, ICSS standard). All analyses were restricted to non-death certificate only cases.ResultsWe analyzed 23,037 patients with a newly diagnosed primary pancreatic cancer. Among morphologically specified cancers, adenocarcinoma (92 %) and neuroendocrine neoplasms (7 %) were the most common morphologies. The age-standardized incidence rates of adenocarcinoma, neuroendocrine tumors and neuroendocrine carcinomas were 4.0–5.5 (in NRW and SL), 0.1–0.3, and 0.1–0.3 per 100,000 person-years, respectively. Neuroendocrine tumors had the highest age-standardized 5-year relative survival with 75.5 % (standard error, SE 2.3) in NRW and 90.6 % (SE 10.2) in SL followed by neuroendocrine carcinomas (NRW: 30.0 %, SE 3.1; SL: 32.3 %, SE 8.7) and adenocarcinomas (NRW: 11.3 %, SE 0.4; SL: 10.2 %, SE 1.5).DiscussionThe distinction between neuroendocrine tumors and neuroendocrine carcinomas by the WHO divides neuroendocrine neoplasms into two prognostically clearly distinct subgroups that should be separately analyzed in terms of survival. The first year after diagnosis of pancreatic cancer is the most critical year in terms of survival.     

Women cancers in India: Incidence,trends and their clinical extent from the National Cancer Registry Programme

BackgroundTo provide a comprehensive assessment of women cancer in India utilizing the systematically collected data on all cancers by the National Cancer Registry Programme (NCRP).MethodsThe study examined 10,2287 cancer cases among women cancers providing cancer burden for major anatomical sites. Aggregated data of 28 PBCRs and 58 HBCRs under NCRP for 2012–16 was analysed for incidence rates, trends, cumulative risk of developing cancer, stage at detection and treatments offered.ResultsStudy results have found region –wide variation of women cancers by indicating highest proportions in western followed by southern region of India. North-Eastern region had lowest proportion. It was observed that breast is highest ranking cancer in most registry areas of urban agglomerations of country while cancer cervix was leading site in registries of rural areas like Barshi (15.3) and Osmanabad &Beed (13.1). States of Mizoram (23.2) and Tripura (9.5) along with Pasighat, Cachar and Nagaland. Median age of occurrence for women for these anatomical sites ranged from 45 to 60 years of age. For cancer breast, cervix and ovary –most cases were detected with regional spread. These findings were different for cancer corpus uteri where registries have reported higher proportions (49.3 %) of localized stage at detection. Loco regional cancers had higher proportions of multimodality treatments.ConclusionStudy provides a foundation for assessing the status of women cancers in the country. Variations between geographies would guide appropriate support for action to strengthen efforts to improve cancer prevention and control in underserved areas of the country. This would facilitate advocacy for better investments and research on women cancers.     

Patterns and temporal trends in the incidence of childhood and adolescence cancer in Cyprus 1998–2017: A population-based study from the Cyprus Paediatric Oncology Registry

BackgroundDespite its rarity, cancer in children and adolescents (CAC) is a major health issue worldwide. The lack of appropriate cancer registries is an obstacle for defining its incidence and survival, and informing cancer control. As in Cyprus, CAC epidemiology has not previously been comprehensively examined, we determined incidence rates and temporal trends of cancer in the 0–19 age group during 1998–2017.MethodsWe established the population based Paediatric Oncology Registry of Cyprus (PORCY) for the period 1998–2017. World age standardised incidence rate per million children and adolescents per year (ASRW) were calculated and time trends were assessed using Joinpoint regression analysis. Comparisons were made with other countries using the International Incidence of Childhood Cancer, third volume.ResultsFor all cancers combined, for ages 0–19-years, ASRW was 203.54 (95% CI 189.49, 217.59) one of the highest rates globally. The most frequent CAC were leukaemias followed by lymphomas, specified epithelial neoplasms and central nervous system tumours, differing to what is described in most other countries. For all cancers, both combined and individual types, except thyroid carcinoma (where incidence was rising), no significant temporal variation was found.ConclusionsTo inform cancer control activities, we conducted the first ever population-based epidemiological study of childhood and adolescent cancer (0–19 years) in Cyprus. The striking findings indicate high overall incidence rates that are among the world’s highest, a higher frequency of lymphomas and thyroid cancer than brain tumours, and rising incidence for thyroid, but not for other, cancers. These novel findings, will help the formulation of hypotheses to provide explanation for the high rates for all CAC in Cyprus and may contribute to the global efforts for improving prevention of cancer in this age group.