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1.
Raphael Rehms;Nicole Ellenbach;Eva Rehfuess;Jacob Burns;Ulrich Mansmann;Sabine Hoffmann; 《Biometrical journal. Biometrische Zeitschrift》2024,66(1):2200341
Infectious disease models can serve as critical tools to predict the development of cases and associated healthcare demand and to determine the set of nonpharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) that is most effective in slowing the spread of an infectious agent. Current approaches to estimate NPI effects typically focus on relatively short time periods and either on the number of reported cases, deaths, intensive care occupancy, or hospital occupancy as a single indicator of disease transmission. In this work, we propose a Bayesian hierarchical model that integrates multiple outcomes and complementary sources of information in the estimation of the true and unknown number of infections while accounting for time-varying underreporting and weekday-specific delays in reported cases and deaths, allowing us to estimate the number of infections on a daily basis rather than having to smooth the data. To address dynamic changes occurring over long periods of time, we account for the spread of new variants, seasonality, and time-varying differences in host susceptibility. We implement a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm to conduct Bayesian inference and illustrate the proposed approach with data on COVID-19 from 20 European countries. The approach shows good performance on simulated data and produces posterior predictions that show a good fit to reported cases, deaths, hospital, and intensive care occupancy. 相似文献
2.
Summary. We propose a method for analyzing data which consist of curves on multiple individuals, i.e., longitudinal or functional data. We use a Bayesian model where curves are expressed as linear combinations of B-splines with random coefficients. The curves are estimated as posterior means obtained via Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods, which automatically select the local level of smoothing. The method is applicable to situations where curves are sampled sparsely and/or at irregular time points. We construct posterior credible intervals for the mean curve and for the individual curves. This methodology provides unified, efficient, and flexible means for smoothing functional data. 相似文献
3.
Eref DEM&#x;R 《Turkish Journal of Biology》2021,45(4):559
The world urgently needs effective antiviral approaches against emerging viruses, as shown by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, which has become an exponentially growing health crisis. Scientists from diverse backgrounds have directed their efforts towards identifying key features of SARS-CoV-2 and clinical manifestations of COVID-19 infection. Reports of more transmissible variants of SARS-CoV-2 also raise concerns over the possibility of an explosive trajectory of the pandemic, so scientific attention should focus on developing new weapons to help win the fight against coronaviruses that may undergo further mutations in the future. Drosophila melanogaster offers a powerful and potential in vivo model that can significantly increase the efficiency of drug screening for viral and bacterial infections. Thanks to its genes with functional human homologs, Drosophila could play a significant role in such gene-editing studies geared towards designing vaccines and antiviral drugs for COVID-19. It can also help rectify current drawbacks of CRISPR-based therapeutics like off-target effects and delivery issues, representing another momentous step forward in healthcare. Here I present an overview of recent literature and the current state of knowledge, explaining how it can open up new avenues for Drosophila in our battle against infectious diseases. 相似文献
4.
BackgroundPrevious studies associate the disturbance of the Zinc (Zn) status with the severity of the disease and the inflammatory process in the critically ill patient. This decrease in Zn concentrations is an indicator of poor prognosis. Our aim was to evaluate Zn levels at admission and after four days, and to study if lower Zn levels at those days were related to a worse clinical outcome.Material and methodsObservational cohort study at a tertiary Hospital. Recruitment period: 09/04/2020–04/24/2021. Clinical information on hypertension, diabetes mellitus (DM), chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), or bronchial asthma was collected. Obesity was defined as BMI ≥ 30 Kg/m2. Blood extraction was performed at admission and after 4 days. Zn was measured by atomic absorption using a flame method. Worse clinical outcome was defined as death during admission, intensive critical care unit admission or receiving supplemental oxygen through noninvasive or invasive ventilator care.Results129 subjects were invited to participate but only 100 subjects completed the survey. According to ROC curve [AUC= 0.63 (95% CI 0.60–0.66)], Zn < 79 μg/dL showed the best performance to detect a worse outcome (Sn=0.85; Sp=0.36). Patients with Zn < 79 μg/dL were older (70 vs 61 y; p = 0.002) with no differences by sex. Most patients presented with fever, dysthermic symptoms and cough, without differences between groups. Pre-existing comorbid conditions did not differ significantly between groups. Less obese subjects were found in the Zn < 79 μg/dL group (21.4 vs 43.3%, p = 0.025). In the univariate analysis, Zn < 79 μg/dL at hospital admission was related to a worse outcome (p = 0.044), but after adjusting for age, C-reactive protein, and obesity there was no difference, but a tendency towards a worse prognosis [OR 2.20 (0.63–7.70), p = 0.215]. Zn levels increased in both groups after 4 days (66.6 vs 73.1 μg/dL at admission, and 72.2 vs 80.5 μg/dL at 4th day), with ns. difference (p = 0.214).ConclusionZn < 79 μg/dL at admission for a moderate to severe COVID-19 infection could be related to a worse outcome, although after adjustment for age, C-reactive protein levels and obesity, this Zn level threshold did not show statistically significant difference in the composite end point, but a tendency towards a worse prognosis. In addition, patients with the best clinical evolution showed higher serum Zn levels at 4th day after hospital admission than the patients with a worse prognosis. 相似文献
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In the U.S. in early 2020, heterogenous and incomplete county-scale data on COVID-19 hindered effective interventions in the pandemic. While numbers of deaths can be used to estimate actual number of infections after a time lag, counties with low death counts early on have considerable uncertainty about true numbers of cases in the future. Here we show that supplementing county-scale mortality statistics with socioeconomic data helps estimate true numbers of COVID-19 infections in low-data counties, and hence provide an early warning of future concern. We fit a LASSO negative binomial regression to select a parsimonious set of five predictive variables from thirty-one county-level covariates. Of these, population density, public transportation use, voting patterns and % African-American population are most predictive of higher COVID-19 death rates. To test the model, we show that counties identified as under-estimating COVID-19 on an early date (April 17) have relatively higher deaths later (July 1) in the pandemic. 相似文献
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Álvaro Briz-Redón Adina Iftimi Jorge Mateu Carolina Romero-García 《Biometrical journal. Biometrische Zeitschrift》2023,65(1):2100318
Understanding the evolution of an epidemic is essential to implement timely and efficient preventive measures. The availability of epidemiological data at a fine spatio-temporal scale is both novel and highly useful in this regard. Indeed, having geocoded data at the case level opens the door to analyze the spread of the disease on an individual basis, allowing the detection of specific outbreaks or, in general, of some interactions between cases that are not observable if aggregated data are used. Point processes are the natural tool to perform such analyses. We analyze a spatio-temporal point pattern of Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases detected in Valencia (Spain) during the first 11 months (February 2020 to January 2021) of the pandemic. In particular, we propose a mechanistic spatio-temporal model for the first-order intensity function of the point process. This model includes separate estimates of the overall temporal and spatial intensities of the model and a spatio-temporal interaction term. For the latter, while similar studies have considered different forms of this term solely based on the physical distances between the events, we have also incorporated mobility data to better capture the characteristics of human populations. The results suggest that there has only been a mild level of spatio-temporal interaction between cases in the study area, which to a large extent corresponds to people living in the same residential location. Extending our proposed model to larger areas could help us gain knowledge on the propagation of COVID-19 across cities with high mobility levels. 相似文献
7.
María V. Jimnez‐Franco Marc Kry Mario Len‐Ortega Francisco Robledano Miguel A. Esteve Jos F. Calvo 《Ecology and evolution》2019,9(2):825-835
New monitoring programs are often designed with some form of temporal replication to deal with imperfect detection by means of occupancy models. However, classical bird census data from earlier times often lack temporal replication, precluding detection‐corrected inferences about occupancy. Historical data have a key role in many ecological studies intended to document range shifts, and so need to be made comparable with present‐day data by accounting for detection probability. We analyze a classical bird census conducted in the region of Murcia (SE Spain) in 1991 and 1992 and propose a solution to estimating detection probability for such historical data when used in a community occupancy model: the spatial replication of subplots nested within larger plots allows estimation of detection probability. In our study, the basic sample units were 1‐km transects, which were considered spatial replicates in two aggregation schemes. We fit two Bayesian multispecies occupancy models, one for each aggregation scheme, and evaluated the linear and quadratic effect of forest cover and temperature, and a linear effect of precipitation on species occupancy probabilities. Using spatial rather than temporal replicates allowed us to obtain individual species occupancy probabilities and species richness accounting for imperfect detection. Species‐specific occupancy and community size decreased with increasing annual mean temperature. Both aggregation schemes yielded estimates of occupancy and detectability that were highly correlated for each species, so in the design of future surveys ecological reasons and cost‐effective sampling designs should be considered to select the most suitable aggregation scheme. In conclusion, the use of spatial replication may often allow historical survey data to be applied formally hierarchical occupancy models and be compared with modern‐day data of the species community to analyze global change process. 相似文献
8.
新型冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)传播速度快、感染范围广,其感染方式主要是聚集性感染,感染途径主要是呼吸道飞沫和接触传播。了解环境中,特别是COVID-19确诊病人生活环境中的病毒存在情况,是做好环境消毒,阻断新型冠状病毒(SARS-CoV-2)传播的重要步骤,对COVID-19防控具有重要意义。本研究旨在探讨COVID-19患者生活环境中SARS-CoV-2的存在情况,从SARS-CoV-2存在的空间部位、病毒核酸含量、消毒效果等方面对SARS-CoV-2的相关特点做出初步研究,为制定有效的SARS-CoV-2防控措施提供科学依据。本研究以COVID-19病例治疗前的3个家庭居住环境和治疗出院后隔离期间的2个宾馆居住环境中采集的样本为研究材料,采用RT-PCR方法检测样本中的SARS-CoV-2核酸并进行比较分析。结果显示,首次从3个家庭环境中采样48份,RTPCR检测SARS-CoV-2核酸阳性5份(10.42%),3个家庭的环境样本中均有阳性样本检出。首次采样48h后在家庭3进行第二次采样16份,SARS-CoV-2核酸检测阳性2份(12.5%),检测Ct值比首次升高。家庭3消毒后24h采集的16份样本SARS-CoV-2核酸检测均为阴性,并且两处宾馆环境采集的24份样本SARS-CoV-2核酸检测也均为阴性。本研究提示,COVID-19病例的生活环境中可以检出SARS-CoV-2,病毒存在区域、存在物品、病毒核酸含量均有差异;对外环境进行消毒可以达到消毒目的,能够起到阻断SARS-CoV-2传播的防控效果。 相似文献
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Cristiana Iosef Claudio M. Martin Marat Slessarev Carolina Gillio-Meina Gediminas Cepinskas Victor K. M. Han Douglas D. Fraser 《Journal of cellular and molecular medicine》2023,27(1):141-157
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) is a systemic inflammatory condition with high mortality that may benefit from personalized medicine and high-precision approaches. COVID-19 patient plasma was analysed with targeted proteomics of 1161 proteins. Patients were monitored from Days 1 to 10 of their intensive care unit (ICU) stay. Age- and gender-matched COVID-19-negative sepsis ICU patients and healthy subjects were examined as controls. Proteomic data were resolved using both cell-specific annotation and deep-analysis for functional enrichment. COVID-19 caused extensive remodelling of the plasma microenvironment associated with a relative immunosuppressive milieu between ICU Days 3–7, and characterized by extensive organ damage. COVID-19 resulted in (1) reduced antigen presentation and B/T-cell function, (2) increased repurposed neutrophils and M1-type macrophages, (3) relatively immature or disrupted endothelia and fibroblasts with a defined secretome, and (4) reactive myeloid lines. Extracellular matrix changes identified in COVID-19 plasma could represent impaired immune cell homing and programmed cell death. The major functional modules disrupted in COVID-19 were exaggerated in patients with fatal outcome. Taken together, these findings provide systems-level insight into the mechanisms of COVID-19 inflammation and identify potential prognostic biomarkers. Therapeutic strategies could be tailored to the immune response of severely ill patients. 相似文献
10.
Nesrein M. Hashem Sameh A. Abdelnour Ahmad R. Alhimaidi Ayman A. Swelum 《Saudi Journal of Biological Sciences》2021,28(3):1702-1712
COVID-19 virus is classified as a respiratory disease that can be mainly transmitted via respiratory droplets, however, there are recently published reports suggested its ability to transmit via sexual intercourse, assisted reproductive technology (ART) treatments, pregnancy, and nursing. Although SARS‐CoV‐2 mainly attacks respiratory systems, manifestations of multiple organs have been detected. A significant concern was raised about whether COVID‐19 may affect female and male reproductive functions. These findings imposed more restrictions on social relationships between individuals even if inside the family, adding more physiologic load. In this context, there is a crucial need to identify the biological and behavioral reproductive risk factors associated with COVID19 disease. Questions regarding the potential risks of sexual transmission during intercourse and/or application of ART, vertical transmission (throughout pregnancy, delivery, and breastfeeding), the health of pregnant and postpartum women, and fetal or postnatal health problems of neonates/children remain largely unanswered. The contribution of individuals to different social and economic activities depends on the maintenance of good quality life and health. The ongoing COVID-19 pandemic raised on the end of December 2019 has drastically affected different aspects of human wellbeing. The pandemic not only affected the health of individuals, but also negatively affected mental health and social interaction. This review illustrates: a) scientific findings related to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the reproductive process, considering gender, hormonal balance, gonad functions, pregnancy, and ART, b) the sociosexual dimension of COVID-19 disease and precautions that should be taken to avoid infection via sexual transmission or vertical transmission, which may alleviate the fear associated with continuing normal social relationships and economic activities. 相似文献
11.
Summary Time varying, individual covariates are problematic in experiments with marked animals because the covariate can typically only be observed when each animal is captured. We examine three methods to incorporate time varying, individual covariates of the survival probabilities into the analysis of data from mark‐recapture‐recovery experiments: deterministic imputation, a Bayesian imputation approach based on modeling the joint distribution of the covariate and the capture history, and a conditional approach considering only the events for which the associated covariate data are completely observed (the trinomial model). After describing the three methods, we compare results from their application to the analysis of the effect of body mass on the survival of Soay sheep (Ovis aries) on the Isle of Hirta, Scotland. Simulations based on these results are then used to make further comparisons. We conclude that both the trinomial model and Bayesian imputation method perform best in different situations. If the capture and recovery probabilities are all high, then the trinomial model produces precise, unbiased estimators that do not depend on any assumptions regarding the distribution of the covariate. In contrast, the Bayesian imputation method performs substantially better when capture and recovery probabilities are low, provided that the specified model of the covariate is a good approximation to the true data‐generating mechanism. 相似文献
12.
Antiphospholipid antibodies (aPLs), present in 1–5 % of healthy individuals, are associated with the risk of antiphospholipid syndrome (APS), which is the most common form of acquired thrombophilia. APLs may appear following infections or vaccinations and have been reported in patients with COronaVIrus Disease-2019 (COVID-19). However, their association with COVID-19 vaccination is unclear. Notably, a few cases of thrombocytopenia and thrombotic events resembling APS have been reported to develop in recipients of either adenoviral vector- or mRNA-based COVID-19 vaccines.The aim of this review is therefore to speculate on the plausible role of aPLs in the pathogenesis of these rare adverse events.Adenoviral vector-based vaccines can bind platelets and induce their destruction in the reticuloendothelial organs. Liposomal mRNA-based vaccines may instead favour activation of coagulation factors and confer a pro-thrombotic phenotype to endothelial cells and platelets. Furthermore, both formulations may trigger a type I interferon response associated with the generation of aPLs. In turn, aPLs may lead to aberrant activation of the immune response with participation of innate immune cells, cytokines and the complement cascade. NETosis, monocyte recruitment and cytokine release may further support endothelial dysfunction and promote platelet aggregation. These considerations suggest that aPLs may represent a risk factor for thrombotic events following COVID-19 vaccination, and deserve further investigations. 相似文献
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Shuai Yuan Peng Chen Huaping Li Chen Chen Feng Wang Dao Wen Wang 《Journal of cellular and molecular medicine》2021,25(2):1263-1273
To determine whether pre-hospitalization use of aspirin is associated with all-cause mortality in coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) patients with coronary artery disease (CAD). We recruited 183 adult patients with CAD diagnosed with COVID-19, including 52 taking low-dose aspirin (mean [SD] age, 69.7 [1.1] years; 59.6% men) and 131 without using aspirin (mean [SD] age, 71.8 [0.9] years; 51.9% men), who were admitted in the Tongji hospital in Wuhan, China from January 10, 2020 to March 30, 2020. There was no difference on in-hospital mortality between aspirin group and non-aspirin group (21.2% vs. 22.1%, P = .885). Similarly, for critically severe COVID-19 patients, the mortality in aspirin group was close to that in non-aspirin group (44% vs. 45.9%, P = .872). Moreover, the percentage of patients with CAD taking low-dose aspirin did not differ between those survivors and non-survivors (28.7% vs. 27.5%, P = .885). Meanwhile, the usage of aspirin was not correlated with all-cause mortality in multivariate analysis (OR = 0.944, 95% CI: 0.411-2.172, P = .893). Collectively, our study suggested that the pre-hospitalization use of low-dose aspirin was not associated with the clinical outcome of patients with CAD hospitalized with COVID-19 infections. 相似文献
15.
It is of recent interest in reproductive health research to investigate the validity of a marker event for the onset of menopausal transition and to estimate age at menopause using age at the marker event. We propose a varying-coefficient Cox model to investigate the association between age at a marker event, defined as a specific bleeding pattern change, and age at menopause, where both events are subject to censoring and their association varies with age at the marker event. Estimation proceeds using the regression spline method. The proposed method is applied to the Tremin Trust data to evaluate the association between age at onset of the 60-day menstrual cycle and age at menopause. The performance of the proposed method is evaluated using a simulation study. 相似文献
16.
Qiuxue Han Shen Wang Zhenshan Wang Cheng Zhang Xinyue Wang Na Feng Tiecheng Wang Yongkun Zhao Hang Chi Feihu Yan Xianzhu Xia 《中国病毒学》2023,38(5):787-800
The weakened protective efficacy of COVID-19 vaccines and antibodies caused by SARS-CoV-2 variants presents a global health emergency, which underscores the urgent need for universal therapeutic antibody intervention for clinical patients. Here, we screened three alpacas-derived nanobodies (Nbs) with neutralizing activity from twenty RBD-specific Nbs. The three Nbs were fused with the Fc domain of human IgG, namely aVHH-11-Fc, aVHH-13-Fc and aVHH-14-Fc, which could specifically bind RBD protein and competitively inhibit the binding of ACE2 receptor to RBD. They effectively neutralized SARS-CoV-2 pseudoviruses D614G, Alpha, Beta, Gamma, Delta, and Omicron sub-lineages BA.1, BA.2, BA.4, and BA.5 and authentic SARS-CoV-2 prototype, Delta, and Omicron BA.1, BA.2 strains. In mice-adapted COVID-19 severe model, intranasal administration of aVHH-11-Fc, aVHH-13-Fc and aVHH-14-Fc effectively protected mice from lethal challenges and reduced viral loads in both the upper and lower respiratory tracts. In the COVID-19 mild model, aVHH-13-Fc, which represents the optimal neutralizing activity among the above three Nbs, effectively protected hamsters from the challenge of SARS-CoV-2 prototype, Delta, Omicron BA.1 and BA.2 by significantly reducing viral replication and pathological alterations in the lungs. In structural modeling of aVHH-13 and RBD, aVHH-13 binds to the receptor-binding motif region of RBD and interacts with some highly conserved epitopes. Taken together, our study illustrated that alpaca-derived Nbs offered a therapeutic countermeasure against SARS-CoV-2, including those Delta and Omicron variants which have evolved into global pandemic strains. 相似文献
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《Cell reports》2023,42(4):112308
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19.
《Endocrine practice》2023,29(8):618-622
ObjectiveCase reports of postvaccine early-onset Graves’ hyperthyroidism (PVGD) after the administration of COVID-19 vaccination have emerged. Our aim was to investigate whether the incidence of Graves’ hyperthyroidism (GD) has increased after the introduction of COVID-19 vaccination.MethodsWe compared the incidence of new-onset GD at a single academic center during 2 periods: December 2017 to October 2019 and December 2020 to October 2022, ie, before and after the implementation of COVID-19 vaccinations. We defined PVGD as laboratory-confirmed hyperthyroidism and GD within 4 weeks after the vaccination or clear onset of symptoms of thyrotoxicosis within 4 weeks of vaccination with evidence of hyperthyroidism and GD within 3 months.ResultsDuring the prevaccination period, 803 patients carried diagnoses of GD, and of these, 131 were new. During the postvaccination period, 901 patients carried diagnoses of GD, and of these, 138 were new. There was no statistically significant difference in the incidence of GD (P = .52), age at onset, gender, or race between the 2 groups. Twenty-four of 138 newly diagnosed patients in the post–COVID-19 group met the criteria for PVGD. The median free T4 was higher, but this was not statistically significant (3.9 vs 2.5 ng/dL, P = .05). There were no differences in age, gender, race, antibody titers, or type of vaccination between PVGD and controls.ConclusionThere was no increase in new-onset GD after COVID-19 vaccination. Median free T4 was higher in patients with PVGD, but this was not statistically significant. 相似文献
20.
Aleksandra Klimczak 《World journal of stem cells》2020,12(9):1013-1022
The new coronavirus, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus-2 (SARS-CoV-2), which emerged in December 2019 in Wuhan, China, has reached worldwide pandemic proportions, causing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). The clinical manifestations of COVID-19 vary from an asymptomatic disease course to clinical symptoms of acute respiratory distress syndrome and severe pneumonia. The lungs are the primary organ affected by SARS-CoV-2, with a very slow turnover for renewal. SARS-CoV-2 enters the lungs via angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 receptors and induces an immune response with the accumulation of immunocompetent cells, causing a cytokine storm, which leads to target organ injury and subsequent dysfunction. To date, there is no effective antiviral therapy for COVID-19 patients, and therapeutic strategies are based on experience treating previously recognized coronaviruses. In search of new treatment modalities of COVID-19, cell-based therapy with mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) and/or their secretome, such as soluble bioactive factors and extracellular vesicles, is considered supportive therapy for critically ill patients. Multipotent MSCs are able to differentiate into different types of cells of mesenchymal origin, including alveolar epithelial cells, lung epithelial cells, and vascular endothelial cells, which are severely damaged in the course of COVID-19 disease. Moreover, MSCs secrete a variety of bioactive factors that can be applied for respiratory tract regeneration in COVID-19 patients thanks to their trophic, anti-inflammatory, immunomodulatory, anti-apoptotic, pro-regenerative, and proangiogenic properties. 相似文献