Stochastic stable population growth in integral projection models: theory and application

Stochastic matrix projection models are widely used to model age- or stage-structured populations with vital rates that fluctuate randomly over time. Practical applications of these models rest on qualitative properties such as the existence of a long term population growth rate, asymptotic log-normality of total population size, and weak ergodicity of population structure. We show here that these properties are shared by a general stochastic integral projection model, by using results in (Eveson in D. Phil. Thesis, University of Sussex, 1991, Eveson in Proc. Lond. Math. Soc. 70, 411-440, 1993) to extend the approach in (Lange and Holmes in J. Appl. Prob. 18, 325-344, 1981). Integral projection models allow individuals to be cross-classified by multiple attributes, either discrete or continuous, and allow the classification to change during the life cycle. These features are present in plant populations with size and age as important predictors of individual fate, populations with a persistent bank of dormant seeds or eggs, and animal species with complex life cycles. We also present a case-study based on a 6-year field study of the Illyrian thistle, Onopordum illyricum, to demonstrate how easily a stochastic integral model can be parameterized from field data and then applied using familiar matrix software and methods. Thistle demography is affected by multiple traits (size, age and a latent "quality" variable), which would be difficult to accommodate in a classical matrix model. We use the model to explore the evolution of size- and age-dependent flowering using an evolutionarily stable strategy (ESS) approach. We find close agreement between the observed flowering behavior and the predicted ESS from the stochastic model, whereas the ESS predicted from a deterministic version of the model is very different from observed flowering behavior. These results strongly suggest that the flowering strategy in O. illyricum is an adaptation to random between-year variation in vital rates.     

Markov models of territory occupancy: implications for the management and conservation of competing species

Markov chains have been frequently used in community ecology to model successional changes, but little attention has been paid to its application in population ecology as a tool to explore the outcomes of species interactions. Markov models can be regarded as “null models” that provide predicted values under a no-change scenario against which the consequences of changes in variables of interest can be assessed. Here we explore Markov chains’ potential to project population trends of competing species and derive sensible management strategies. To do that we use six years of field data on territory occupancy and turn-over of two competing top predators in a Mediterranean landscape: the golden and Bonelli’s eagles. The results suggest that long-term coexistence of both species in the study area is likely, with the main limitation for their coexistence being the difficulties Bonelli’s eagles have in colonising new territories that become available. To avoid future declines in the population of Bonelli’s eagle, it is important to take into account that the positive effects of conservation strategies focused on encouraging colonization (e.g. decreasing disperser mortality) are likely to be larger than those focused on avoiding territory abandonment (e.g. decreasing adult mortality). Markov chains are likely to be useful to evaluate the relative merit of alternative management options in other territorial species when patterns of territory occupancy are the only reliable data available, as often happens with large predators.     

Habitat models for a riparian carabid beetle: their validity and applicability in the evaluation of river bank management

In order to assess the management success of river rehabilitation measurements it is necessary to have representative target species and objective statistical methods. In this study we, tested the validity of habitat suitability models for the riparian carabid beetle Bembidion velox in the evaluation of river bank management along the River Elbe, Germany. On the basis of seven independent data sets from different sites and years we have proven the robustness of logistic regression models with respect to their explanatory and predictive power and their applicability in the field. All models had robust explanatory power and described a strong association of B. velox with semi-terrestrial sandy open soil habitats. Transfers of model results for adult beetles to their larvae and vice versa were highly significant with “sand content” and “stem distance” as the main habitat factors for both life stages. To broaden the local explanatory power towards general predictions we performed model cross-validation in space and time. Spatial transfers produced models with excellent discrimination properties, measured by Area Under Curve (AUC) values of Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) plots, independent of sampling designs and trapping methodology. However, the applicability of habitat models for B. velox is defined by the validity period, as the availability of suitable habitats for this species is highly temporally variable and dependent on water level. Model transfers between species also demonstrated that the chosen target species is representative for carabids with similar distribution patterns, as the single species model had high predictive power for the occurrence of a multi-species carabid group.     

Inhibition of apoptosis, activation of NKT cell and upregulation of CD40 and CD40L mediated by M. leprae antigen(s) combined with Murabutide and Trat peptide in leprosy patients

Protective immunity against intracellular pathogen Mycobacterium leprae is dependent on the activation of T cells. Repeated stimulation of T cells by M. leprae antigens MLCwA (M. leprae total cell wall antigen) and ManLAM (mannose-capped lipoarabinomannan), may lead to apoptosis in leprosy patients. In the present study, inhibition of the Fas-induced apoptosis of peripheral blood mononuclear cells of leprosy patients was investigated using above M. leprae antigen(s), in combination with immunomodulators murabutide (MB) and a Trat peptide in particulate form (liposome). Incubation of the cells with antigen containing the two immunomodulators in particulate form (liposomes) led to decrease in percentage of propidium iodide positive cells and T cells expressing Fas–FasL as well as decreased caspase-8/-3 activities in lepromatous patients, thereby inhibiting apoptosis, while converse was true upon stimulation with soluble antigen. Concurrently, there was an upregulation of antiapoptotic protein Bcl-x_L in lepromatous patients, leading to the inhibition of apoptosis. It was also observed that same formulation upregulated the expression of CD40 on B cells and monocytes-macrophages and CD40L on T cells of lepromatous leprosy patients. The same liposomal formulation significantly increased the expression of CD1b and CD1d on monocytes-macrophages as well as percentage of NKT cells secreting IFN-γ in lepromatous leprosy patients. Thus, the liposomal formulation of antigen with the immunomodulators in vitro promoted the activation of CD40:CD40L pathways and NKT cell function involved in providing cell-mediated immunity to these patients. The same formulation also caused reversal of T cell anergy by inhibiting apoptosis through decreased expression of death receptors (Fas–FasL) and caspase activities (3 and 8) and increased expression of antiapoptotic protein Bcl-x_L in these patients.