Its all about connections: hubs and invasion in habitat networks

During the early stages of invasion, the interaction between the features of the invaded landscape, notably its spatial structure, and the internal dynamics of an introduced population has a crucial impact on establishment and spread. By approximating introduction areas as networks of patches linked by dispersal, we characterised their spatial structure with specific metrics and tested their impact on two essential steps of the invasion process: establishment and spread. By combining simulations with experimental introductions of Trichogramma chilonis (Hymenoptera: Trichogrammatidae) in artificial laboratory microcosms, we demonstrated that spread was hindered by clusters and accelerated by hubs but was also affected by small‐population mechanisms prevalent for invasions, such as Allee effects. Establishment was also affected by demographic mechanisms, in interaction with network metrics. These results highlight the importance of considering the demography of invaders as well as the structure of the invaded area to predict the outcome of invasions.     

The role of Allee effects in gypsy moth, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Lymantria dispar</Emphasis> (L.), invasions

Allee effects have been applied historically in efforts to understand the low-density population dynamics of rare and endangered species. Many biological invasions likewise experience the phenomenon of decreasing population growth rates at low population densities because most founding populations of introduced nonnative species occur at low densities. In range expansion of established species, the initial colonizers of habitat beyond the organism’s current range are usually at low density, and thus could be subject to Allee dynamics. There has been consistent empirical and theoretical evidence demonstrating, and in some cases quantifying, the role of Allee dynamics in the gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar (L.), invasion of North America. In this review, we examine the potential causes of the Allee effect in the gypsy moth and highlight the importance of mate-finding failure as a primary mechanism behind an Allee effect, while the degree to which generalist predators induce an Allee effect remains unclear. We then explore the role of Allee effects in the establishment and spread dynamics of the gypsy moth system, which conceptually could serve as a model system for understanding how Allee effects manifest themselves in the dynamics of biological invasions.     

French wasps in the New World: experimental biological control introductions reveal a demographic Allee effect

Many populations introduced into a novel environment fail to establish. One underlying process is the Allee effect, i.e., the difficulty of individuals to survive and reproduce when rare, and the consequently low or negative population growth. Although observations showing a positive relation between initial population size and establishment probability suggest that the Allee effect could be widespread in biological invasions, experimental tests are scarce. Here, we used a biological control program against Diuraphis noxia (Mordvilko) (Hemiptera: Aphididae) in the United States to manipulate initial population size of the introduced parasitoid Aphelinus asychis Walker (Hymenoptera: Aphelinidae) originating from France. For eight populations and three generations after introduction, we studied spatial distribution and spread, density, mate-finding, and population growth. Dispersal was lower in small populations during the first generation. Smaller initial population size nonetheless resulted in lower density during the three generations studied. The proportion of mated females and the population sex ratio were not affected by initial population size or population density. Net reproductive rate decreased with density within each generation, suggesting negative density-dependence. But for a given density, net reproductive rate was smaller in populations initiated with few individuals than in populations initiated with many individuals. Hence, our results demonstrate a demographic Allee effect. Mate-finding is excluded as an underlying mechanism, and other component Allee effects may have been overwhelmed by negative density-dependence in reproduction. Impact of generalist predators could provide one potential explanation for the relationship between initial population size and net reproductive rate. However, the continuing effect of initial population size on population growth suggests genetic processes may have been involved in the observed demographic Allee effect.     

Mate finding, dispersal, number released, and the success of biological control introductions

Abstract.

• 1 An analysis of published data and a mathematical model of the population dynamics of introduced parasitoids were used to explore the possibility that biological control introductions fail because an Allee effect drives small, introduced populations extinct. Such an Allee effect would arise because low densities, resulting from dispersal into a new environment, lead to failure to mate, which leads to a male-biased sex ratio, which, if extreme enough, could cause population extinction.
• 2 For chalcidoids, ichneumonoids and tachinids, the proportion of parasitoid populations that established when introduced for control of lepidopteran pests increased with the number of parasitoids per release, the total number released, and the number collected when each variable was analysed separately. For chalcidoids alone, establishment increased with the number of releases for this variable analysed separately. However, stepwise logistic regression of establishment on these variables included only the total number released for chalcidoids and the number per release for ichneumonoids and tachinids. This suggests that an Allee effect may limit the establishment of introduced parasitoids more than stochastic environmental variation or lack of genetic variation.
• 3 A reaction-diffusion model of parasitoid introductions was developed, which included mate finding, dispersal, reproduction and survival. Sensitivity analysis showed that the critical number of females needed to establish a population decreased hyperbolically as mate detection distance and net reproductive rate were increased, but the critical number increased linearly as mean-square displacement was increased. The critical number of females did not change when the gross distance traversed per generation was varied. This was because increased area searched by males compensated for increased displacement. Changing from virgin females producing all males (arrhenotoky) to virgin females producing no progeny increased the critical number of females by over 30%.
• 4 The analysis of past introductions and the sensitivity analysis of the reaction-diffusion model both suggested a threshold of about 1000 insects per release to ensure establishment of introduced parasitoids. The implications of our results for the design of biological control introductions are discussed. Limitations in retrospective analyses and current knowledge indicate the need for an experimental approach to introductions.

     

Demographic Stochasticity, Environmental Variability, and Windows of Invasion Risk for Bythotrephes Longimanus in North America

Biological invasions are a leading threat to freshwater biodiversity worldwide. A central unanswered question of invasion ecology is why some introduced populations establish while most fail. Answering this question will allow resource managers to increase the specificity and effectiveness of control efforts and policy. We studied the establishment of spiny water flea (Bythotrephes longimanus) in the United States and Canada by modeling introduction failure caused by demographic stochasticity, environmental variation, and seasonal environmental forcing. We compared predicted establishment rates with observed invasions of inland lakes in Ontario, Canada. Our findings suggest that environmental forcing can cause “windows” of invasion opportunity so that timing of introductions might be a greater determinant of population establishment than demographic stochasticity and random environmental variation. We expect this phenomenon to be exhibited by species representing a wide range of life histories. For spiny water flea in North America, a large window of invasion opportunity opens around the fourth week of May, persists through the summer, and closes with decreasing water temperatures in autumn. These results show how timing of introductions with respect to seasonally forced environmental drivers can be a key determinant of establishment success. By focusing on introductions during windows of invasion opportunity, resource managers can more effectively control invasion rates.     

Modeling the establishment of invasive species: habitat and biotic interactions influencing the establishment of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Bythotrephes longimanus</Emphasis>

Bythotrephes longimanus is an invasive pelagic crustacean, which first arrived in North America from Europe in early 1980s and can now be found throughout the Great Lakes and in many inland lakes and waterways. Determining the suitability of lakes to Bythotrephes establishment is an important step in quantifying its potential habitat range and environmental risk. Lake environmental conditions, planktivorous fishes, sport fishes and Bythotrephes occurrence data from 179 south-central Ontario lakes were used in this study to model lake characteristics suitable for its establishment. The performance of principal component analysis and different predictive models was used to determine the habitats that are suitable for the survival of Bythotrephes and the factors that may regulate its spread. Four modeling approaches were employed: linear discriminant analysis; multiple logistic regression; random forests; and, artificial neural networks. Ensemble prediction based on the four modeling approaches was also used as an indicator for predicting Bythotrephes occurrence. Bythotrephes appears to establish more readily in larger, deeper lakes with lower elevation, that have more sport fishes. Bythotrephes occurrence can be best predicted by artificial neural networks when including the measures of fish data, in addition to lake environmental data. Lake elevation, surface area and sport fish occurrence were ranked as the most important predictors of Bythotrephes invasion. The inclusion of biotic variables (occurrence or diversity of sport or planktivorous fishes) enhanced cross-validated models relative to analyses based on environmental data alone.     

Estimating Allee Dynamics before They Can Be Observed: Polar Bears as a Case Study

Allee effects are an important component in the population dynamics of numerous species. Accounting for these Allee effects in population viability analyses generally requires estimates of low-density population growth rates, but such data are unavailable for most species and particularly difficult to obtain for large mammals. Here, we present a mechanistic modeling framework that allows estimating the expected low-density growth rates under a mate-finding Allee effect before the Allee effect occurs or can be observed. The approach relies on representing the mechanisms causing the Allee effect in a process-based model, which can be parameterized and validated from data on the mechanisms rather than data on population growth. We illustrate the approach using polar bears (Ursus maritimus), and estimate their expected low-density growth by linking a mating dynamics model to a matrix projection model. The Allee threshold, defined as the population density below which growth becomes negative, is shown to depend on age-structure, sex ratio, and the life history parameters determining reproduction and survival. The Allee threshold is thus both density- and frequency-dependent. Sensitivity analyses of the Allee threshold show that different combinations of the parameters determining reproduction and survival can lead to differing Allee thresholds, even if these differing combinations imply the same stable-stage population growth rate. The approach further shows how mate-limitation can induce long transient dynamics, even in populations that eventually grow to carrying capacity. Applying the models to the overharvested low-density polar bear population of Viscount Melville Sound, Canada, shows that a mate-finding Allee effect is a plausible mechanism for slow recovery of this population. Our approach is generalizable to any mating system and life cycle, and could aid proactive management and conservation strategies, for example, by providing a priori estimates of minimum conservation targets for rare species or minimum eradication targets for pests and invasive species.     

Increased abundance of the non-indigenous zooplanktivore, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Bythotrephes longimanus</Emphasis>, is strongly correlated with greater spring prey availability in Canadian Shield lakes

The non-indigenous zooplanktivore, Bythotrephes longimanus, is a large Palaearctic cladoceran that is spreading rapidly in the Great Lakes watershed in North America. As a voracious predator, Bythotrephes can reduce herbivorous cladoceran abundance and diversity; however, the variables that affect its abundance are not well understood. To determine what bottom-up factors are associated with the abundance and seasonal dynamics of established Bythotrephes populations, two Bythotrephes datasets from lakes in south-central Ontario, Canada, were analysed using multiple regression and multivariate analyses: a multi-lake dataset of nine lakes sampled in 2003 and a multi-year dataset of one of these lakes, Harp Lake, sampled from 1994–1998 and 2001–2004. Bottom-up variables tested were Secchi disk depth, epilimnetic temperature, cladoceran (prey) density, total phosphorus, dissolved organic carbon and Chlorophyll a, as well as maximum depth for the multi-lake dataset. In both analyses and datasets, springtime abundance of herbivorous cladocerans was consistently found to be a significant factor associated with Bythotrephes (June–September) abundance; Bythotrephes annual abundance was significantly and positively associated with mean May and June prey abundance, along with mean Secchi disk depth for the multi-lake dataset, and groups of lakes or years with similar Bythotrephes seasonal abundance patterns were predicted by June prey abundance. Additionally, prey availability was the dominant contributor towards changes in weekly Bythotrephes birth rates calculated for two of the study lakes. Our study suggests that prey availability influences Bythotrephes abundance, which provides evidence that Bythotrephes establishment success is affected by the abundance of its prey.     

Models of lake invasibility by Bythotrephes longimanus, a non-indigenous zooplankton

We built a family of hierarchical risk models for the spread of invasions by the spiny waterflea (Bythotrephes longimanus) in lakes in Ontario, Canada. Knowledge of covariates determining lake invasibility and ability to predict risk of future invasions may help to develop management policy and slow the invasions in the future. The models are based on two component submodels. The first component was a stochastic gravity submodel for the propagule pressure between lakes via recreational boaters. The second component was a submodel for establishment risk, given that the invader has already been introduced to a lake. This component was a logistic regression model, incorporating up to 17 measured covariates that describe the physical and chemical condition of the lake. Variants of the risk model, each incorporating different subsets of the covariates, were calibrated using presence/absence data from a 300-lake survey conducted in 2005?C2006 by the Canadian Aquatic Invasive Species Network (CAISN). The predictive capacity of the best model was high, giving AUC values close to 0.94. Of the model covariates considered, the most important predictors of existing invasions were propagule pressure and lake pH, and, to lesser extents, phosphorus (P) and lake elevation. Our fitting of the propagule pressure submodel demonstrated a significant Allee effect for Bythotrephes. Our development of the establishment risk predictor showed that it is essential to account for temporal variability in lake physico-chemistry. We demonstrated that invasions of lake networks by the spiny waterflea follow highly predictable patterns which can be understood with a properly calibrated, hierarchical risk model.     

Sperm storage reduces the strength of the mate‐finding Allee effect

Mate searching is a key component of sexual reproduction that can have important implications for population viability, especially for the mate‐finding Allee effect. Interannual sperm storage by females may be an adaptation that potentially attenuates mate limitation, but the demographic consequences of this functional trait have not been studied. Our goal is to assess the effect of female sperm storage durability on the strength of the mate‐finding Allee effect and the viability of populations subject to low population density and habitat alteration. We used an individual‐based simulation model that incorporates realistic representations of the demographic and spatial processes of our model species, the spur‐thighed tortoise (Testudo graeca). This allowed for a detailed assessment of reproductive rates, population growth rates, and extinction probabilities. We also studied the relationship between the number of reproductive males and the reproductive rates for scenarios combining different levels of sperm storage durability, initial population density, and landscape alteration. Our results showed that simulated populations parameterized with the field‐observed demographic rates collapsed for short sperm storage durability, but were viable for a durability of one year or longer. In contrast, the simulated populations with a low initial density were only viable in human‐altered landscapes for sperm storage durability of 4 years. We find that sperm storage is an effective mechanism that can reduce the strength of the mate‐finding Allee effect and contribute to the persistence of low‐density populations. Our study highlights the key role of sperm storage in the dynamics of species with limited movement ability to facilitate reproduction in patchy landscapes or during population expansion. This study represents the first quantification of the effect of sperm storage durability on population dynamics in different landscapes and population scenarios.     

The highs and lows of dispersal: how connectivity and initial population size jointly shape establishment dynamics in discrete landscapes

Identifying the main factors driving introduced populations to establishment is a major challenge of invasion biology. Due to their small initial size, introduced populations are most vulnerable to extinction because of demographic stochasticity or Allee effects. While an increase in initial population size is known to increase establishment success, much remains to be understood regarding its interplay with connectivity in spatially structured environments. In order to better understand how demographic mechanisms interact at such spatial scale, we developed a stochastic model of population dynamics in discrete space to investigate the effect of connectivity and initial population size on establishment. The predictions derived from the model were then tested using experimental introductions of an insect parasitoid (Trichogramma chilonis) in spatially structured laboratory microcosms. Both theoretical and experimental results demonstrated that the connectivity of the introduction site had 1) a deleterious effect in the first generation when the introduced population was small and 2) a beneficial impact brought about by metapopulation effects in the subsequent generations. Interestingly, populations displayed a weakly pushed invasion pattern promoting early establishment, which was mainly underpinned by dispersal stochasticity and the discrete nature of the landscape. These results shed light on the critical influence of landscape connectivity on establishment dynamics.     

Evaluation of stochastic gravity model selection for use in estimating non-indigenous species dispersal and establishment

Predicting dispersal of nonindigenous species (NIS) is an essential component of risk analysis and management, as preventative measures are most readily applied at this stage of the invasion sequence. Gravity models provide one of the most useful techniques available to model dispersal of nonindigenous invasive species (NIS) across heterogeneous landscapes, as these models are able to capture transport patterns of recreational boaters who are dominant vectors responsible for aquatic NIS dispersal. Despite the widespread use of gravity models in forecasting biological invasions, different classes of gravity models have not been evaluated regarding their comparative ability to capture recreational transport patterns and subsequent use in predicting NIS establishment. Here we evaluate model selection between unconstrained, total-flow-constrained, production-constrained and doubly-constrained stochastic gravity models to assess dispersal of the spiny waterflea Bythotrephes between Ontario lakes. Differences between the models relate to the amount of data required and constraints under which calculations of source/destination interactions are made. For each class of gravity model, we then estimated the probability of a lake having established Bythotrephes populations by modeling the relationship between empirical presence/absence data and inbound recreational traffic (i.e. propagule pressure) via boosted regression. The unconstrained gravity model provided the best fit to observed traffic patterns of recreational boaters. However, when output from the gravity models was used to predict Bythotrephes establishment, the doubly-constrained gravity model provided the strongest relationship between inbound recreational traffic and observed Bythotrephes presence/absence, followed by the production-constrained model. Our results indicate production-constrained gravity models offer an acceptable balance between modeling recreational boater traffic and their utility to estimate establishment probabilities.     

Shifting invertebrate zooplanktivores: watershed-level replacement of the native <Emphasis Type="Italic">Leptodora</Emphasis> by the non-indigenous <Emphasis Type="Italic">Bythotrephes</Emphasis> in Canadian Shield lakes

The abundance of the native, pelagic macroinvertebrate predator, Leptodora kindtii, is negatively correlated with the abundance of a new invasive competitor, Bythotrephes longimanus, in a small number of Canadian Shield lakes. However, we do not yet know if Bythotrephes is replacing Leptodora on a regional scale. We determined the distribution of both species in 166 lakes in the District of Muskoka, south-central Ontario, Canada—the watershed with the longest history and largest prevalence of Bythotrephes invasions in North America. The frequency of occurrence of Leptodora was substantially reduced (twofold) in the presence of Bythotrephes. We argue that Bythotrephes is responsible for this dramatic reduction in the frequency of occurrence of Leptodora. Lakes in which both species co-occurred could not be distinguished from invaded lakes without Leptodora, suggesting a pattern of species replacement at a watershed level. We believe this is the first account of the widespread replacement of a native, pelagic macroinvertebrate predator by Bythotrephes in North America, and it does not bode well for Leptodora given the rapid, ongoing spread of Bythotrephes.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Bythotrephes</Emphasis> invasion elevates trophic position of zooplankton and fish: implications for contaminant biomagnification

We estimated the effects of Bythotrephes longimanus invasion on the trophic position (TP) of zooplankton communities and lake herring, Coregonus artedi. Temporal changes in lacustrine zooplankton communities following Bythotrephes invasion were contrasted with non-invaded reference lakes, and along with published information on zooplankton and herring diets, formed the basis of estimated changes in TP. The TP of zooplankton communities and lake herring increased significantly following the invasion of Bythotrephes, whereas TP in reference lakes decreased (zooplankton) or did not change significantly (lake herring) over a similar time frame. Elevated TP following Bythotrephes invasion was most prominent in lakes that also supported the glacial relict, Mysis diluvania, suggesting a possible synergistic interaction between these two species on zooplankton community composition. Our analysis indicated that elevated TPs of zooplankton communities and lake herring are not simply due to the presence of Bythotrephes, but rather reflect changes in the zooplankton community induced by Bythotrephes; namely, a major reduction in the proportion of herbivorous cladoceran biomass and a concomitant increase in the proportion of omnivorous and/or predatory copepod biomass in invaded lakes. We demonstrated that increases in TP of the magnitude reported here can lead to substantial increases in fish contaminant concentrations. In light of these results, we discuss potential mechanisms that may be responsible for the disconnect between empirical and theoretical evidence that mid-trophic level species invasions (e.g., Bythotrephes) elevate contaminant burdens of consumer species, and provide testable hypotheses to evaluate these mechanisms.     

The invasive predator <Emphasis Type="Italic">Bythotrephes</Emphasis> induces changes in the vertical distribution of native copepods in Lake Michigan

Invasive predators can have large negative effects on native prey populations. The susceptibility of native prey to invasive predators may depend on their ability to respond behaviorally to the presence of these non-native predators. In a field survey conducted in Lake Michigan over several years, we found that high densities of the invasive predatory cladoceran Bythotrephes were correlated with lower vertical distributions of some species and age classes of native copepods; moving from inhabiting primarily the epiliminion at low Bythotrephes density to primarily the hypolimnion at high Bythotrephes density. Five groups showed this pattern; diaptomid copepodites, adult cyclopoids, Diacyclops thomasi, and the adult diaptomids Leptodiaptomus ashlandi and L. minutus. In contrast, Bythotrephes density was not correlated with the vertical distribution of copepod nauplii and adult L. sicilis. Laboratory experiments suggest that the changes in the vertical distribution in the field at high Bythothrephes are due to an inducible, plastic response to predation threat from Bythotrephes signaled by water-borne cues. Species that were lower in the field at high Bythotrephes densities responded behaviorally to water-borne cues from Bythotrephes by moving to lower levels of experimental water columns. These species included D. thomasi and L. minutus, with L. ashlandi displaying a non-significant trend in the same direction. In contrast, L. sicilis, which was not correlated with Bythotrephes density in the field, was unaffected by the water-borne cues. Differences in vertical distribution shifts among these native copepod species and life-history stages are likely due to species-specific differences in spatial overlap with Bythotrephes and their relative ability to migrate large distances or employ alternative avoidance strategies. The varied responses exhibited among the copepod groups likely alter their interactions with each other, their resources and other predators, thus revealing the complex effects Bythotrephes can have on invaded communities.     

Food limitation impacts life history of the predatory cladoceran Bythotrephes longimanus, an invader to North America

North American invasions of the predatory cladoceran Bythotrephes longimanus have resulted in declines in native zooplankton abundance, species richness, and diversity. In the field, population maxima of Bythotrephes are positively correlated to those of their zooplankton prey. To test the hypothesis that increased prey availability enhances Bythotrephes fitness, we reared Bythotrephes in the laboratory on three mixed-species prey densities (equivalent to 15, 30, and 45 prey organisms day^?1; designated “low,” “medium,” and “high” food treatments, respectively) over 22 days at 21°C. Bythotrephes consumed the daily equivalent of 9, 14, and 22 prey organisms at the low, medium, and high food densities. Smaller, slower prey were most often selected. Indeed, with increasing prey density, Bythotrephes’ predation rates increased, resulting in significantly higher population growth rates, net reproductive rates, growth, and first brood clutch and offspring sizes; significantly faster generation times; and shorter maximum life spans. We propose that the positive relationship between Bythotrephes population maxima and prey seen in the field is largely due to increased predation rates by Bythotrephes when prey abundance is high and the fitness benefits that ensue. Our findings may be useful for Bythotrephes risk and impact assessments.     

Invasion dynamics of round goby (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Neogobius melanostomus</Emphasis>) in Hamilton Harbour,Lake Ontario

Most introduced non-native species fail to establish as a result of mortality or reproductive failure. An established population can increase the probability of survival and reproductive success of newly introduced individuals by reducing both Allee effects and demographic stochasticity. Previously, attention has been paid to the establishment phase of the invasion process and its probability modelled as a stochastic process, while the spread phase has received less attention. By analyzing data collected during the spread phase of an invasion of the round goby, Neogobius melanostomus, in Hamilton Harbour, Lake Ontario, we develop an analytical approach to backcalculate the time to establishment and to determine the time to habitat saturation. Our modelling shows that: (1) during the transition between arrival and establishment, propagule pressure in the form of new adults entering the area can be very low and still represent a significant probability of establishment; (2) much higher concentrations of juveniles would be needed to pose a significant risk of invasion; (3) the demographic contribution of propagule pressure during the spread phase is low and its total elimination will not halt population growth and spread; (4) a short elapsed time between arrival and establishment indicated that the transition between these two phases can be characterized as a deterministic process with high propagule pressure and low adult mortality rates; and, (5) very aggressive management actions would be needed to halt population growth after population establishment, suggesting that preventative measures are the most effective management options available to reduce risk of future invasions.     

Divergent density feedback control of migratory predator recovery following sex‐biased perturbations

Uncertainty in risks posed by emerging stressors such as synthetic hormones impedes conservation efforts for threatened vertebrate populations. Synthetic hormones often induce sex‐biased perturbations in exposed animals by disrupting gonad development and early life‐history stage transitions, potentially diminishing per capita reproductive output of depleted populations and, in turn, being manifest as Allee effects. We use a spatially explicit biophysical model to evaluate how sex‐biased perturbation in life‐history traits of individuals (maternal investment in egg production and male‐skewed sex allocation in offspring) modulates density feedback control of year‐class strength and recovery trajectories of a long‐lived, migratory fish—shovelnose sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus platorynchus)—under spatially and temporally dynamic synthetic androgen exposure and habitat conditions. Simulations show that reduced efficiency of maternal investment in gonad development prolonged maturation time, increased the probability of skipped spawning, and, in turn, shrunk spawner abundance, weakening year‐class strength. However, positive density feedback disappeared (no Allee effect) once the exposure ceased. By contrast, responses to the demographic perturbation manifested as strong positive density feedback; an abrupt shift in year‐class strength and spawner abundance followed after more than two decades owing to persistent negative population growth (a strong Allee effect), reaching an alternative state without any sign of recovery. When combined with the energetic perturbation, positive density feedback of the demographic perturbation was dampened as extended maturation time reduced the frequency of producing male‐biased offspring, allowing the population to maintain positive growth rate (a weak Allee effect) and gradually recover. The emergent patterns in long‐term population projections illustrate that sex‐biased perturbation in life‐history traits can interactively regulate the strength of density feedback in depleted populations such as Scaphirhynchus sturgeon to further diminish reproductive capacity and abundance, posing increasingly greater conservation challenges in chemically altered riverscapes.     

Establishment success of invasive ring‐necked and monk parakeets in Europe

Aim Invasive alien species are a growing threat to biodiversity, and identifying the mechanisms that enable these species to establish viable populations in their new environment is paramount for management of the problems they pose. Using an unusually large number of both failed and successful documented introductions of parakeets (Aves: Psittacidae) in Europe, we test two of the major hypotheses on the establishment success of invading species, namely the climate‐matching and the human‐activity hypothesis. Location European human population centres where ring‐necked parakeet (Psittacula krameri) and/or monk parakeet (Myiopsitta monachus) introductions have occurred. Methods Data on ring‐necked and monk parakeet introductions in Europe were gathered from various sources, including published books and articles, but also from unpublished reports and local grey literature. Information was verified with experts from the region under consideration. In order to test the climate‐matching hypothesis, we verified whether the climatic factors that determine the parakeets’ native ranges also explain establishment success in Europe. Parakeet occurrence data from the native ranges were analysed using the presence‐only modelling method Maxent , and correlations between parakeet establishment and climatic and anthropogenic variables in Europe were assessed using both stepwise logistic regression and the information‐theoretic model selection approach. Results The establishment success of ring‐necked and monk parakeets was found to be positively associated with human population density, and, both in the native and in the introduced regions, parakeet occurrence was negatively correlated with the number of frost days. Thus, parakeets are more likely to establish in warmer and human‐dominated areas. Main conclusions The large number of independent parakeet introductions in Europe allows us to test the often‐used climate‐matching and human‐activity hypotheses at the species level. We show that both hypotheses offer insight into the invasion process of monk and ring‐necked parakeets. Our results suggest that, in the future, parakeet establishment probability may increase even further because global warming is likely to cause a decrease in the number of frost days and because urbanization and human populations are still increasing.     

The Allee effect, stochastic dynamics and the eradication of alien species

Previous treatments of the population biology of eradication have assumed that eradication can only be achieved via 100% removal of the alien population. However, this assumption appears to be incorrect because stochastic dynamics and the Allee effect typically contribute to the extinction of very low‐density populations. We explore a model that incorporates Allee dynamics and stochasticity to observe how these two processes contribute to the extinction of isolated populations following eradication treatments of varying strength (percentage mortality). As a case study, we used historical data on the dynamics of isolated gypsy moth, Lymantria dispar, populations to fit parameters to this model. The parameterized model was then used in simulations that evaluated the efficacy of various eradication strategies. The results indicated that eradication of isolated gypsy moth populations could be easily achieved following a treatment of >80% mortality as long as populations were relatively low (indicated by <100 males captured in pheromone traps).