Stochastic disease dynamics of a hospital infection model

A stochastic model for hospital infection incorporating both direct transmission and indirect transmission via free-living bacteria in the environment is investigated. We examine the long term behavior of the model by calculating a stationary distribution and normal approximation of the distribution. The quasi-stationary distribution of the model is studied to investigate the models’ behavior before extinction and the time to extinction. Numerical results show agreement between the calculated distributions and results of event-driven simulations. Hand hygiene of volunteers is more effective in terms of reducing the mean (or standard deviation) of the stationary distribution of colonized patients and the expected time to extinction compared to hand hygiene of health care workers (HCWs), on the basis of our parameter values. However, the indirect (or direct) transmission rate can lead to either increase or decrease in the standard deviation of the stationary distribution, but the impact of the indirect transmission is much greater than that of the direct transmission. The findings suggest that isolation of new admitted colonized patients is most effective in reducing both the mean and standard deviation of the stationary distribution and measures related to indirect transmission are secondary in their effects compared to other interventions.     

Optimal Pattern of Replication and Transmission for Parasites with Two Stages in Their Life Cycle

This paper describes how a parasite with distinct stages for replication within its host and for transmission among hosts should schedule the production of the two stages so that it achieves maximal transmission. A mathematical model of the within-host dynamics of a parasite and of its interactions with the immune response predicts that the optimal pattern of investment depends largely on the relationships between the growth rate of the parasite, the rate of increase of immunity against the parasite, and parasite-induced mortality of the host. We consider first a parasite with a constant, time-independent level of investment in transmission. If such a parasite grows rapidly and can therefore reach a density that kills the host before it is cleared by the immune response, it can achieve maximal transmission by producing transmission stages, and thus reducing its effective growth rate, to the extent that its peak density is just below the lethal density. This leads to the prediction that investment in transmission should be positively correlated with growth rate. In contrast, if the parasite grows more slowly and is cleared by the immune system before it can reach lethal density, the level of investment should be negatively correlated with growth rate. If a parasite can vary its investment into transmission during the course of infection, it should delay investment into transmission until it reaches lethal density or until shortly before it is cleared by the host′s immune system. If a parasite grows slowly in comparison with immunity, the optimal pattern of investment is a bang-bang pattern: the investment switches from total production of the replication stage to total production of the transmission stage shortly before the parasite is cleared by the immune response. If a parasite grows much more rapidly than immunity, the parasite initially replicates up to lethal density without producing any transmission stages, then produces transmission stages at the rate that reduces its effective growth rate to zero and thus allows it to be maintained at lethal density, and finally switches to complete investment into transmission stages shortly before it is cleared by the immune system     

Isolation of Toxoplasma gondii from the Feces of a Helminth Free Cat

SYNOPSIS. Toxoplasma gondii was isolated from the feces of one of 2 cats infected orally with the Beverley strain of T. gondii.
Toxoplasma gondii infects many species of warm blooded animals including man but its mode of transmission is not fully known. Congenital infection and cannibalism are the 2 accepted modes of transmission. Besides, nematode eggs have been suggested as another effective way of to transmission by Hutchison whose work has been reviewed in detail (5).     

The range of control of the afferent system of the flexor reflex]

The control processes caused by the action of electric inhibition of the nerve fibres and depolarized and hyperpolarized influences in the neurones structures of the spinal cord are discussed. Three typical bands of the amplitude control of motor apparatus in the multineuronic reflex ring are distinguished. The transmission of the action potentials in the battle control bands is carried out by the double way modulation. The first band is characterized by the most effective control with amplitude of the signal control in the limit of three thresholds. In the third band the transmission of information is possible in the inversion regime with unsteady polarity of the reflex movement. The second band unfits for the transmission of control commands.     

Wildlife disease elimination and density dependence

Disease control by managers is a crucial response to emerging wildlife epidemics, yet the means of control may be limited by the method of disease transmission. In particular, it is widely held that population reduction, while effective for controlling diseases that are subject to density-dependent (DD) transmission, is ineffective for controlling diseases that are subject to frequency-dependent (FD) transmission. We investigate control for horizontally transmitted diseases with FD transmission where the control is via culling or harvest that is non-selective with respect to infection and the population can compensate through DD recruitment or survival. Using a mathematical model, we show that culling or harvesting can eradicate the disease, even when transmission dynamics are FD. Eradication can be achieved under FD transmission when DD birth or recruitment induces compensatory growth of new, healthy individuals, which has the net effect of reducing disease prevalence by dilution. We also show that if harvest is used simultaneously with vaccination, and there is high enough transmission coefficient, application of both controls may be less efficient than vaccination alone. We illustrate the effects of these control approaches on disease prevalence for chronic wasting disease in deer where the disease is transmitted directly among deer and through the environment.     

Transmission of Leishmania metacyclic promastigotes by phlebotomine sand flies

A thorough understanding of the transmission mechanism of any infectious agent is crucial to implementing an effective intervention strategy. Here, our current understanding of the mechanisms that Leishmania parasites use to ensure their transmission from sand fly vectors by bite is reviewed. The most important mechanism is the creation of a "blocked fly" resulting from the secretion of promastigote secretory gel (PSG) by the parasites in the anterior midgut. This forces the sand fly to regurgitate PSG before it can bloodfeed, thereby depositing both PSG and infective metacyclic promastigotes in the skin of a mammalian host. Other possible factors in transmission are considered: damage to the stomodeal valve; occurrence of parasites in the salivary glands; and excretion of parasites from the anus of infected sand flies. Differences in the transmission mechanisms employed by parasites in the three subgenera, Leishmania, Viannia and Sauroleishmania are also addressed.     

Analysis of rabies in China: transmission dynamics and control

Human rabies is one of the major public-health problems in China. The number of human rabies cases has increased dramatically in the last 15 years, partially due to the poor understanding of the transmission dynamics of rabies and the lack of effective control measures of the disease. In this article, in order to explore effective control and prevention measures we propose a deterministic model to study the transmission dynamics of rabies in China. The model consists of susceptible, exposed, infectious, and recovered subpopulations of both dogs and humans and describes the spread of rabies among dogs and from infectious dogs to humans. The model simulations agree with the human rabies data reported by the Chinese Ministry of Health. We estimate that the basic reproduction number for the rabies transmission in China and predict that the number of the human rabies is decreasing but may reach another peak around 2030. We also perform some sensitivity analysis of in terms of the model parameters and compare the effects of culling and immunization of dogs. Our study demonstrates that (i) reducing dog birth rate and increasing dog immunization coverage rate are the most effective methods for controlling rabies in China; and (ii) large scale culling of susceptible dogs can be replaced by immunization of them.     

Livestock Protection Dogs for Deterring Deer From Cattle and Feed

Abstract: Disease transmission between wildlife and livestock is a worldwide issue. Society needs better methods to prevent interspecies transmission to reduce disease risks. Producers have successfully used livestock protection dogs (LPDs) for thousands of years to reduce predation. We theorized that LPDs raised and bonded with cattle could be used to also reduce risk of bovine tuberculosis (Myobacterium bovis; TB) transmission between white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) and cattle by minimizing contact between the 2 species and use of cattle feed by deer. We evaluated 4 LPDs over 5 months, utilizing 2 data collection methods (direct observation and motion-activated video) on deer farms that supported higher densities than wild populations. Dogs were highly effective in preventing deer from using concentrated cattle feed (hay bales), likely the greatest risk factor of TB transmission on farms. Dogs also prevented deer from approaching cattle in core areas of pastures (near hay bales) and were very effective throughout pastures. Our research supports the theory that LPDs, specifically trained to remain with cattle, may be a practical tool to minimize potential for livestock to contract TB from infected deer in small-scale cattle operations. Where disease is present in deer, it may be possible to reduce the potential for disease transmission by employing LPDs.     

Importance of factors determining the effective lifetime of a mass, long-lasting, insecticidal net distribution: a sensitivity analysis

Background

Long-lasting insecticidal nets (LLINs) reduce malaria transmission by protecting individuals from infectious bites, and by reducing mosquito survival. In recent years, millions of LLINs have been distributed across sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Over time, LLINs decay physically and chemically and are destroyed, making repeated interventions necessary to prevent a resurgence of malaria. Because its effects on transmission are important (more so than the effects of individual protection), estimates of the lifetime of mass distribution rounds should be based on the effective length of epidemiological protection.

Methods

Simulation models, parameterised using available field data, were used to analyse how the distribution's effective lifetime depends on the transmission setting and on LLIN characteristics. Factors considered were the pre-intervention transmission level, initial coverage, net attrition, and both physical and chemical decay. An ensemble of 14 stochastic individual-based model variants for malaria in humans was used, combined with a deterministic model for malaria in mosquitoes.

Results

The effective lifetime was most sensitive to the pre-intervention transmission level, with a lifetime of almost 10 years at an entomological inoculation rate of two infectious bites per adult per annum (ibpapa), but of little more than 2 years at 256 ibpapa. The LLIN attrition rate and the insecticide decay rate were the next most important parameters. The lifetime was surprisingly insensitive to physical decay parameters, but this could change as physical integrity gains importance with the emergence and spread of pyrethroid resistance.

Conclusions

The strong dependency of the effective lifetime on the pre-intervention transmission level indicated that the required distribution frequency may vary more with the local entomological situation than with LLIN quality or the characteristics of the distribution system. This highlights the need for malaria monitoring both before and during intervention programmes, particularly since there are likely to be strong variations between years and over short distances. The majority of SSA's population falls into exposure categories where the lifetime is relatively long, but because exposure estimates are highly uncertain, it is necessary to consider subsequent interventions before the end of the expected effective lifetime based on an imprecise transmission measure.     

The dynamics of HIV-1 adaptation in early infection

Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) undergoes a severe population bottleneck during sexual transmission and yet adapts extremely rapidly to the earliest immune responses. The bottleneck has been inferred to typically consist of a single genome, and typically eight amino acid mutations in viral proteins spread to fixation by the end of the early chronic phase of infection in response to selection by CD8(+) T cells. Stochastic simulation was used to examine the effects of the transmission bottleneck and of potential interference among spreading immune-escape mutations on the adaptive dynamics of the virus in early infection. If major viral population genetic parameters are assigned realistic values that permit rapid adaptive evolution, then a bottleneck of a single genome is not inconsistent with the observed pattern of adaptive fixations. One requirement is strong selection by CD8(+) T cells that decreases over time. Such selection may reduce effective population sizes at linked loci through genetic hitchhiking. However, this effect is predicted to be minor in early infection because the transmission bottleneck reduces the effective population size to such an extent that the resulting strong selection and weak mutation cause beneficial mutations to fix sequentially and thus avoid interference.     

Biometrical genetic analysis of luteovirus transmission in the aphid Schizaphis graminum

The aphid Schizaphis graminum is an important vector of the viruses that cause barley yellow dwarf disease. We studied the genetic architecture of virus transmission by crossing a vector and a non-vector genotype of S. graminum. F1 and F2 hybrids were generated, and a modified line-cross biometrical analysis was performed on transmission phenotype of two of the viruses that cause barley yellow dwarf: Cereal yellow dwarf virus (CYDV)-RPV and Barley yellow dwarf virus (BYDV)-SGV. Our aims were to (1) determine to what extent differences in transmission ability between vectors and non-vectors is due to net additive or non-additive gene action, (2) estimate the number of loci that determine transmission ability and (3) examine the nature of genetic correlations between transmission of CYDV-RPV and BYDV-SGV. Only additive effects contributed significantly to divergence in transmission of both CYDV-RPV and BYDV-SGV. For each luteovirus, Castle-Wright's estimator for the number of effective factors segregating for transmission phenotype was less than one. Transmission of CYDV-RPV and BYDV-SGV was significantly correlated in the F2 generation, suggesting that there is a partial genetic overlap for transmission of these luteoviruses. Yet, 63% of the F2 genotypes transmitted CYDV-RPV and BYDV-SGV at significantly different rates. Our data suggest that in S. graminum, the transmission efficiency of both CYDV-RPV and BYDV-SGV is regulated by a major gene or set of tightly linked genes, and the transmission efficiency of each virus is influenced by a unique set of minor genes.     

Modeling and Analyzing the Transmission Dynamics of HBV Epidemic in Xinjiang,China

Hepatitis B is an infectious disease caused by the hepatitis B virus (HBV) which affects livers. In this paper, we formulate a hepatitis B model to study the transmission dynamics of hepatitis B in Xinjiang, China. The epidemic model involves an exponential birth rate and vertical transmission. For a better understanding of HBV transmission dynamics, we analyze the dynamic behavior of the model. The modified reproductive number σ is obtained. When σ < 1, the disease-free equilibrium is locally asymptotically stable, when σ > 1, the disease-free equilibrium is unstable and the disease is uniformly persistent. In the simulation, parameters are chosen to fit public data in Xinjiang. The simulation indicates that the cumulated HBV infection number in Xinjiang will attain about 600,000 cases unless there are stronger or more effective control measures by the end of 2017. Sensitive analysis results show that enhancing the vaccination rate for newborns in Xinjiang is very effective to stop the transmission of HBV. Hence, we recommend that all infants in Xinjiang receive the hepatitis B vaccine as soon as possible after birth.     

Mathematical models of Neospora caninum infection in dairy cattle: transmission and options for control

The transmission and control of Neospora caninum infection in dairy cattle was examined using deterministic and stochastic models. Parameter estimates were derived from recent studies conducted in the UK and from the published literature. Three routes of transmission were considered: maternal vertical transmission with a high probability (0.95), horizontal transmission from infected cattle within the herd, and horizontal transmission from an independent external source. Putative infection via pooled colostrum was used as an example of within-herd horizontal transmission, and the recent finding that the dog is a definitive host of N. caninum supported the inclusion of an external independent source of infection. The predicted amount of horizontal transmission required to maintain infection at levels commonly observed in field studies in the UK and elsewhere, was consistent with that observed in studies of post-natal seroconversion (0.85-9.0 per 100 cow-years). A stochastic version of the model was used to simulate the spread of infection in herds of 100 cattle, with a mean infection prevalence similar to that observed in UK studies (around 20%). The distributions of infected and uninfected cattle corresponded closely to Normal distributions, with S.D.s of 6.3 and 7.0, respectively. Control measures were considered by altering birth, death and horizontal transmission parameters. A policy of annual culling of infected cattle very rapidly reduced the prevalence of infection, and was shown to be the most effective method of control in the short term. Not breeding replacements from infected cattle was also effective in the short term, particularly in herds with a higher turnover of cattle. However, the long-term effectiveness of these measures depended on the amount and source of horizontal infection. If the level of within-herd transmission was above a critical threshold, then a combination of reducing within-herd, and blocking external sources of transmission was required to permanently eliminate infection.     

A chromosome-specific estimate of transmission of heterozygosity by 2n gametes in potato

Polyploid plants are formed when numerically unreduced (2n) gametes participate in fertilization. Based on cytological and genetic analyses, modes of 2n gamete formation have been determined for a number of plant species. Gametes formed by a first-division restitution (FDR) mechanism contain nonsister chromatids near the centromere, whereas those formed by second-division restitution (SDR) contain sister chromatids. These mechanisms differ in the proportion of heterozygous loci they transmit intact to offspring. This paper estimates the transmission of heterozygosity on an individual chromosome basis through pachytene analysis of chromosomes of haploids (2n = 2x = 24) of Solanum tuberosum Andigena Group (2n = 4x = 48), a South American cultivated potato. Transmission of heterozygosity by FDR and SDR 2n gametes was calculated for 6 different cytogenetic assumptions. FDR was more than twice as effective as SDR in transmission of heterozygosity under all 6 scenarios. Rates of transmission of heterozygosity were similar in each situation. Transmission of heterozygosity by FDR was also compared with transmission of heterozygosity by tetrasomic inheritance and found to be approximately 50% more effective.     

Cell-to-Cell Transmission Can Overcome Multiple Donor and Target Cell Barriers Imposed on Cell-Free HIV

Virus transmission can occur either by a cell-free mode through the extracellular space or by cell-to-cell transmission involving direct cell-to-cell contact. The factors that determine whether a virus spreads by either pathway are poorly understood. Here, we assessed the relative contribution of cell-free and cell-to-cell transmission to the spreading of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). We demonstrate that HIV can spread by a cell-free pathway if all the steps of the viral replication cycle are efficiently supported in highly permissive cells. However, when the cell-free path was systematically hindered at various steps, HIV transmission became contact-dependent. Cell-to-cell transmission overcame barriers introduced in the donor cell at the level of gene expression and surface retention by the restriction factor tetherin. Moreover, neutralizing antibodies that efficiently inhibit cell-free HIV were less effective against cell-to-cell transmitted virus. HIV cell-to-cell transmission also efficiently infected target T cells that were relatively poorly susceptible to cell-free HIV. Importantly, we demonstrate that the donor and target cell types influence critically the extent by which cell-to-cell transmission can overcome each barrier. Mechanistically, cell-to-cell transmission promoted HIV spread to more cells and infected target cells with a higher proviral content than observed for cell-free virus. Our data demonstrate that the frequently observed contact-dependent spread of HIV is the result of specific features in donor and target cell types, thus offering an explanation for conflicting reports on the extent of cell-to-cell transmission of HIV.     

Eradication of Taenia solium cysticercosis: A role for vaccination of pigs

Taenia solium is the causative agent of neurocysticercosis, a disease responsible for substantial human morbidity and mortality. It is a zoonotic parasite, involving pigs as intermediate hosts. The parasite’s full life cycle is restricted to poor people in developing countries. Attempts to date to control transmission of the parasite have been relatively poorly effective and not sustainable. Over the past decade research has been undertaken to develop practical vaccines for use in pigs to prevent transmission of T. solium. The most effective of these vaccines in controlled experimental trials has been the TSOL18 vaccine. More recently, TSOL18 has been proven to be highly effective against naturally acquired infection with T. solium in pigs. Application of TSOL18 together with a single treatment of pigs with oxfendazole achieved the complete elimination of transmission of the parasite by pigs involved in the field trial. This strategy may provide a relatively low cost and sustainable control tool which could assist towards the goal of achieving eradication of the parasite. An assessment is made of the potential value of various control measures that are available for T. solium, and two options are suggested as potential parasite control programs.     

Evaluation of the effectiveness of fluralaner against adult stages of Rhodnius prolixus in dogs

Triatomines are vectors of American Trypanosomiasis also known as Chagas´ disease where several reservoirs including dogs are involved in the transmission cycle of the causal agent (Trypanosoma cruzi). Considering that the prevalence of American trypanosomiasis in dogs is higher than in humans and that dogs in addition are susceptible of this disease, and are involved in peridomestic transmission to humans, the search for new alternatives for vector control of the triatomines responsible for transmission in dogs is required. Over the 20 weeks the study lasted, 600 individual female, adult of Rhodnius prolixus were offered to the 15 dogs treated with a single oral dose of Fluralaner (Bravecto®, MSD). Feeding pattern of triatomines was not affected by the treatment during the whole study. The fluralaner-induced mortality of R. prolixus had a significant effect until week 12 at which time 100% mortality was observed. Mortality decreased to 67.5% at week 16 to practically nil 0.8% on week 20. Fluralaner achieved 100% mortality of triatomines between 12- and 48-h post-feeding. It was demonstrated that a single oral dose of fluralaner in dogs is highly effective in producing mortality in adult R. prolixus for the time guaranteed by the manufacturer for other blood-sucking insects, with a considerable effective residual effect for up to 16 weeks. Due to this high efficacy, fluralaner could be considered in strategies to control the transmission vectors of Chagas disease in dogs and in turn decrease the peri-domestic transmission cycle, particularly in hyperendemic areas.     

Suppression of inflammatory and neuropathic pain symptoms in mice lacking the N-type Ca2+ channel

The importance of voltage-dependent Ca2+ channels (VDCCs) in pain transmission has been noticed gradually, as several VDCC blockers have been shown to be effective in inhibiting this process. In particular, the N-type VDCC has attracted attention, because inhibitors of this channel are effective in various aspects of pain-related phenomena. To understand the genuine contribution of the N-type VDCC to the pain transmission system, we generated mice deficient in this channel by gene targeting. We report here that mice lacking N-type VDCCs show suppressed responses to a painful stimulus that induces inflammation and show markedly reduced symptoms of neuropathic pain, which is caused by nerve injury and is known to be difficult to treat by currently available therapeutic methods. This finding clearly demonstrates that the N-type VDCC is essential for development of neuropathic pain and, therefore, controlling the activity of this channel can be of great importance for the management of neuropathic pain.     

Host–parasite coevolution: genetic variation in a virus population and the interaction with a host gene

Host–parasite coevolution is considered to be an important factor in maintaining genetic variation in resistance to pathogens. Drosophila melanogaster is naturally infected by the sigma virus, a vertically transmitted and host‐specific pathogen. In fly populations, there is a large amount of genetic variation in the transmission rate from parent to offspring, much of which is caused by major‐effect resistance polymorphisms. We have found that there are similarly high levels of genetic variation in the rate of paternal transmission among 95 different isolates of the virus as in the host. However, when we examined a transmission‐blocking gene in the host, we found that it was effective across virus isolates. Therefore, the high levels of genetic variation observed in this system do not appear to be maintained because of coevolution resulting from interactions between this host gene and parasite genes.