Net biome production of the Amazon Basin in the 21st century

Global change includes multiple stressors to natural ecosystems ranging from direct climate and land‐use impacts to indirect degradation processes resulting from fire. Humid tropical forests are vulnerable to projected climate change and possible synergistic interactions with deforestation and fire, which may initiate a positive feedback to rising atmospheric CO₂. Here, we present results from a multifactorial impact analysis that combined an ensemble of climate change models with feedbacks from deforestation and accidental fires to quantify changes in Amazon Basin carbon cycling. Using the LPJmL Dynamic Global Vegetation Model, we modelled spatio‐temporal changes in net biome production (NBP); the difference between carbon fluxes from fire, deforestation, soil respiration and net primary production. By 2050, deforestation and fire (with no CO₂ increase or climate change) resulted in carbon losses of 7.4–20.3 Pg C with the range of uncertainty depending on socio‐economic storyline. During the same time period, interactions between climate and land use either compensated for carbon losses due to wetter climate and CO₂ fertilization or exacerbated carbon losses from drought‐induced forest mortality (?20.1 to +4.3 Pg C). By the end of the 21st century, depending on climate projection and the rate of deforestation (including its interaction with fire), carbon stocks either increased (+12.6 Pg C) or decreased (?40.6 Pg C). The synergistic effect of deforestation and fire with climate change contributed up to 26–36 Pg C of the overall decrease in carbon stocks. Agreement between climate projections (n=9), not accounting for deforestation and fire, in 2050 and 2098 was relatively low for the directional change in basin‐wide NBP (19–37%) and aboveground live biomass (13–24%). The largest uncertainty resulted from climate projections, followed by implementation of ecosystem dynamics and deforestation. Our analysis partitions the drivers of tropical ecosystem change and is relevant for guiding mitigation and adaptation policy related to global change.     

Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models

The possible responses of ecosystem processes to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate change are illustrated using six dynamic global vegetation models that explicitly represent the interactions of ecosystem carbon and water exchanges with vegetation dynamics. The models are driven by the IPCC IS92a scenario of rising CO₂ ( Wigley et al. 1991 ), and by climate changes resulting from effective CO₂ concentrations corresponding to IS92a, simulated by the coupled ocean atmosphere model HadCM2‐SUL. Simulations with changing CO₂ alone show a widely distributed terrestrial carbon sink of 1.4–3.8 Pg C y^?1 during the 1990s, rising to 3.7–8.6 Pg C y^?1 a century later. Simulations including climate change show a reduced sink both today (0.6–3.0 Pg C y^?1) and a century later (0.3–6.6 Pg C y^?1) as a result of the impacts of climate change on NEP of tropical and southern hemisphere ecosystems. In all models, the rate of increase of NEP begins to level off around 2030 as a consequence of the ‘diminishing return’ of physiological CO₂ effects at high CO₂ concentrations. Four out of the six models show a further, climate‐induced decline in NEP resulting from increased heterotrophic respiration and declining tropical NPP after 2050. Changes in vegetation structure influence the magnitude and spatial pattern of the carbon sink and, in combination with changing climate, also freshwater availability (runoff). It is shown that these changes, once set in motion, would continue to evolve for at least a century even if atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate could be instantaneously stabilized. The results should be considered illustrative in the sense that the choice of CO₂ concentration scenario was arbitrary and only one climate model scenario was used. However, the results serve to indicate a range of possible biospheric responses to CO₂ and climate change. They reveal major uncertainties about the response of NEP to climate change resulting, primarily, from differences in the way that modelled global NPP responds to a changing climate. The simulations illustrate, however, that the magnitude of possible biospheric influences on the carbon balance requires that this factor is taken into account for future scenarios of atmospheric CO₂ and climate change.     

Effects of livestock grazing on grassland carbon storage and release override impacts associated with global climate change

Predicting future carbon (C) dynamics in grassland ecosystems requires knowledge of how grazing and global climate change (e.g., warming, elevated CO₂, increased precipitation, drought, and N fertilization) interact to influence C storage and release. Here, we synthesized data from 223 grassland studies to quantify the individual and interactive effects of herbivores and climate change on ecosystem C pools and soil respiration (Rs). Our results showed that grazing overrode global climate change factors in regulating grassland C storage and release (i.e., Rs). Specifically, grazing significantly decreased aboveground plant C pool (APCP), belowground plant C pool (BPCP), soil C pool (SCP), and Rs by 19.1%, 6.4%, 3.1%, and 4.6%, respectively, while overall effects of all global climate change factors increased APCP, BPCP, and Rs by 6.5%, 15.3%, and 3.4% but had no significant effect on SCP. However, the combined effects of grazing with global climate change factors also significantly decreased APCP, SCP, and Rs by 4.0%, 4.7%, and 2.7%, respectively but had no effect on BPCP. Most of the interactions between grazing and global climate change factors on APCP, BPCP, SCP, and Rs were additive instead of synergistic or antagonistic. Our findings highlight the dominant effects of grazing on C storage and Rs when compared with the suite of global climate change factors. Therefore, incorporating the dominant effect of herbivore grazing into Earth System Models is necessary to accurately predict climate–grassland feedbacks in the Anthropocene.     

Net primary and ecosystem production and carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems and their responses to climate change

Evaluating the role of terrestrial ecosystems in the global carbon cycle requires a detailed understanding of carbon exchange between vegetation, soil, and the atmosphere. Global climatic change may modify the net carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems, causing feedbacks on atmospheric CO₂ and climate. We describe a model for investigating terrestrial carbon exchange and its response to climatic variation based on the processes of plant photosynthesis, carbon allocation, litter production, and soil organic carbon decomposition. The model is used to produce geographical patterns of net primary production (NPP), carbon stocks in vegetation and soils, and the seasonal variations in net ecosystem production (NEP) under both contemporary and future climates. For contemporary climate, the estimated global NPP is 57.0 Gt C y^–1, carbon stocks in vegetation and soils are 640 Gt C and 1358 Gt C, respectively, and NEP varies from –0.5 Gt C in October to 1.6 Gt C in July. For a doubled atmospheric CO₂ concentration and the corresponding climate, we predict that global NPP will rise to 69.6 Gt C y^–1, carbon stocks in vegetation and soils will increase by, respectively, 133 Gt C and 160 Gt C, and the seasonal amplitude of NEP will increase by 76%. A doubling of atmospheric CO₂ without climate change may enhance NPP by 25% and result in a substantial increase in carbon stocks in vegetation and soils. Climate change without CO₂ elevation will reduce the global NPP and soil carbon stocks, but leads to an increase in vegetation carbon because of a forest extension and NPP enhancement in the north. By combining the effects of CO₂ doubling, climate change, and the consequent redistribution of vegetation, we predict a strong enhancement in NPP and carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems. This study simulates the possible variation in the carbon exchange at equilibrium state. We anticipate to investigate the dynamic responses in the carbon exchange to atmospheric CO₂ elevation and climate change in the past and future.     

Enhanced CO2 uptake is marginally offset by altered fluxes of non-CO2 greenhouse gases in global forests and grasslands under N deposition

Despite the increasing impact of atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition on terrestrial greenhouse gas (GHG) budget, through driving both the net atmospheric CO₂ exchange and the emission or uptake of non-CO₂ GHGs (CH₄ and N₂O), few studies have assessed the climatic impact of forests and grasslands under N deposition globally based on different bottom-up approaches. Here, we quantify the effects of N deposition on biomass C increment, soil organic C (SOC), CH₄ and N₂O fluxes and, ultimately, the net ecosystem GHG balance of forests and grasslands using a global comprehensive dataset. We showed that N addition significantly increased plant C uptake (net primary production) in forests and grasslands, to a larger extent for the aboveground C (aboveground net primary production), whereas it only caused a small or insignificant enhancement of SOC pool in both upland systems. Nitrogen addition had no significant effect on soil heterotrophic respiration (R_H) in both forests and grasslands, while a significant N-induced increase in soil CO₂ fluxes (R_S, soil respiration) was observed in grasslands. Nitrogen addition significantly stimulated soil N₂O fluxes in forests (76%), to a larger extent in grasslands (87%), but showed a consistent trend to decrease soil uptake of CH₄, suggesting a declined sink capacity of forests and grasslands for atmospheric CH₄ under N enrichment. Overall, the net GHG balance estimated by the net ecosystem production-based method (forest, 1.28 Pg CO₂-eq year⁻¹ vs. grassland, 0.58 Pg CO₂-eq year⁻¹) was greater than those estimated using the SOC-based method (forest, 0.32 Pg CO₂-eq year⁻¹ vs. grassland, 0.18 Pg CO₂-eq year⁻¹) caused by N addition. Our findings revealed that the enhanced soil C sequestration by N addition in global forests and grasslands could be only marginally offset (1.5%–4.8%) by the combined effects of its stimulation of N₂O emissions together with the reduced soil uptake of CH₄.     

Projected changes in mineral soil carbon of European croplands and grasslands, 1990–2080

We present the most comprehensive pan‐European assessment of future changes in cropland and grassland soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks to date, using a dedicated process‐based SOC model and state‐of‐the‐art databases of soil, climate change, land‐use change and technology change. Soil carbon change was calculated using the Rothamsted carbon model on a European 10 × 10′ grid using climate data from four global climate models implementing four Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) emissions scenarios (SRES). Changes in net primary production (NPP) were calculated by the Lund–Potsdam–Jena model. Land‐use change scenarios, interpreted from the narratives of the IPCC SRES story lines, were used to project changes in cropland and grassland areas. Projections for 1990–2080 are presented for mineral soil only. Climate effects (soil temperature and moisture) will tend to speed decomposition and cause soil carbon stocks to decrease, whereas increases in carbon input because of increasing NPP will slow the loss. Technological improvement may further increase carbon inputs to the soil. Changes in cropland and grassland areas will further affect the total soil carbon stock of European croplands and grasslands. While climate change will be a key driver of change in soil carbon over the 21st Century, changes in technology and land‐use change are estimated to have very significant effects. When incorporating all factors, cropland and grassland soils show a small increase in soil carbon on a per area basis under future climate (1–7 t C ha^?1 for cropland and 3–6 t C ha^?1 for grassland), but when the greatly decreasing area of cropland and grassland are accounted for, total European cropland stocks decline in all scenarios, and grassland stocks decline in all but one scenario. Different trends are seen in different regions. For Europe (the EU25 plus Norway and Switzerland), the cropland SOC stock decreases from 11 Pg in 1990 by 4–6 Pg (39–54%) by 2080, and the grassland SOC stock increases from 6 Pg in 1990 to 1.5 Pg (25%) under the B1 scenario, but decreases to 1–3 Pg (20–44%) under the other scenarios. Uncertainty associated with the land‐use and technology scenarios remains unquantified, but worst‐case quantified uncertainties are 22.5% for croplands and 16% for grasslands, equivalent to potential errors of 2.5 and 1 Pg SOC, respectively. This is equivalent to 42–63% of the predicted SOC stock change for croplands and 33–100% of the predicted SOC stock change for grasslands. Implications for accounting for SOC changes under the Kyoto Protocol are discussed.     

Interannual variability in global soil respiration, 1980–94

We used a climate‐driven regression model to develop spatially resolved estimates of soil‐CO₂ emissions from the terrestrial land surface for each month from January 1980 to December 1994, to evaluate the effects of interannual variations in climate on global soil‐to‐atmosphere CO₂ fluxes. The mean annual global soil‐CO₂ flux over this 15‐y period was estimated to be 80.4 (range 79.3–81.8) Pg C. Monthly variations in global soil‐CO₂ emissions followed closely the mean temperature cycle of the Northern Hemisphere. Globally, soil‐CO₂ emissions reached their minima in February and peaked in July and August. Tropical and subtropical evergreen broad‐leaved forests contributed more soil‐derived CO₂ to the atmosphere than did any other vegetation type (～30% of the total) and exhibited a biannual cycle in their emissions. Soil‐CO₂ emissions in other biomes exhibited a single annual cycle that paralleled the seasonal temperature cycle. Interannual variability in estimated global soil‐CO₂ production is substantially less than is variability in net carbon uptake by plants (i.e., net primary productivity). Thus, soils appear to buffer atmospheric CO₂ concentrations against far more dramatic seasonal and interannual differences in plant growth. Within seasonally dry biomes (savannas, bushlands and deserts), interannual variability in soil‐CO₂ emissions correlated significantly with interannual differences in precipitation. At the global scale, however, annual soil‐CO₂ fluxes correlated with mean annual temperature, with a slope of 3.3 Pg C y^?1 per °C. Although the distribution of precipitation influences seasonal and spatial patterns of soil‐CO₂ emissions, global warming is likely to stimulate CO₂ emissions from soils.     

Modelling climate,CO2 and management impacts on soil carbon in semi-arid agroecosystems

In agroecosystems, there is likely to be a strong interaction between global change and management that will determine whether soil will be a source or sink for atmospheric C. We conducted a simulation study of changes in soil C as a function of climate and CO₂ change, for a suite of different management systems, at four locations representing a climate sequence in the central Great Plains of the US.Climate, CO₂ and management interactions were analyzed for three agroecosystems: a conventional winter wheat-summer fallow rotation, a wheat-corn-fallow rotation and continuous cropping with wheat. Model analyses included soil C responses to changes in the amount and distribution of precipitation and responses to changes in temperature, precipitation and CO₂ as projected by a general circulation model for a 2 × CO₂ scenario.Overall, differences between management systems at all the sites were greater than those induced by perturbations of climate and/or CO₂. Crop residue production was increased by CO₂ enrichment and by a changed climate. Where the frequency of summer fallowing was reduced (wheat-corn-fallow) or eliminated (continuous wheat), soil C increased under all conditions, particularly with increased (640 L L^–1) CO₂. For wheat-fallow management, the model predicted declines in soil C under both ambient conditions and with climate change alone. Increased CO₂ with wheat-fallow management yielded small gains in soil C at three of the sites and reduced losses at the fourth site.Our results illustrate the importance of considering the role of management in determining potential responses of agroecosystems to global change. Changes in climate will determine changes in management as farmers strive to maximize profitability. Therefore, changes in soil C may be a complex function of climate driving management and management driving soil C levels and not be a simple direct effect of either climate or management.     

Deep peat warming increases surface methane and carbon dioxide emissions in a black spruce‐dominated ombrotrophic bog

Boreal peatlands contain approximately 500 Pg carbon (C) in the soil, emit globally significant quantities of methane (CH₄), and are highly sensitive to climate change. Warming associated with global climate change is likely to increase the rate of the temperature‐sensitive processes that decompose stored organic carbon and release carbon dioxide (CO₂) and CH₄. Variation in the temperature sensitivity of CO₂ and CH₄ production and increased peat aerobicity due to enhanced growing‐season evapotranspiration may alter the nature of peatland trace gas emission. As CH₄ is a powerful greenhouse gas with 34 times the warming potential of CO₂, it is critical to understand how factors associated with global change will influence surface CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes. Here, we leverage the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (SPRUCE) climate change manipulation experiment to understand the impact of a 0–9°C gradient in deep belowground warming (“Deep Peat Heat”, DPH) on peat surface CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes. We find that DPH treatments increased both CO₂ and CH₄ emission. Methane production was more sensitive to warming than CO₂ production, decreasing the C‐CO₂:C‐CH₄ of the respired carbon. Methane production is dominated by hydrogenotrophic methanogenesis but deep peat warming increased the δ¹³C of CH₄ suggesting an increasing contribution of acetoclastic methanogenesis to total CH₄ production with warming. Although the total quantity of C emitted from the SPRUCE Bog as CH₄ is <2%, CH₄ represents >50% of seasonal C emissions in the highest‐warming treatments when adjusted for CO₂ equivalents on a 100‐year timescale. These results suggest that warming in boreal regions may increase CH₄ emissions from peatlands and result in a positive feedback to ongoing warming.     

Potential for biochar carbon sequestration from crop residues: A global spatially explicit assessment

Global warming necessitates urgent action to reduce carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions and remove CO₂ from the atmosphere. Biochar, a type of carbonized biomass which can be produced from crop residues (CRs), offers a promising solution for carbon dioxide removal (CDR) when it is used to sequester photosynthetically fixed carbon that would otherwise have been returned to atmospheric CO₂ through respiration or combustion. However, high-resolution spatially explicit maps of CR resources and their capacity for climate change mitigation through biochar production are currently lacking, with previous global studies relying on coarse (mostly country scale) aggregated statistics. By developing a comprehensive high spatial resolution global dataset of CR production, we show that, globally, CRs generate around 2.4 Pg C annually. If 100% of these residues were utilized, the maximum theoretical technical potential for biochar production from CRs amounts to 1.0 Pg C year⁻¹ (3.7 Pg CO₂e year⁻¹). The permanence of biochar differs across regions, with the fraction of initial carbon that remains after 100 years ranging from 60% in warm climates to nearly 100% in cryosols. Assuming that biochar is sequestered in soils close to point of production, approximately 0.72 Pg C year⁻¹ (2.6 Pg CO₂e year⁻¹) of the technical potential would remain sequestered after 100 years. However, when considering limitations on sustainable residue harvesting and competing livestock usage, the global biochar production potential decreases to 0.51 Pg C year⁻¹ (1.9 Pg CO₂e year⁻¹), with 0.36 Pg C year⁻¹ (1.3 Pg CO₂e year⁻¹) remaining sequestered after a century. Twelve countries have the technical potential to sequester over one fifth of their current emissions as biochar from CRs, with Bhutan (68%) and India (53%) having the largest ratios. The high-resolution maps of CR production and biochar sequestration potential provided here will provide valuable insights and support decision-making related to biochar production and investment in biochar production capacity.     

Evaluation of the terrestrial carbon cycle, future plant geography and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks using five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs)

This study tests the ability of five Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), forced with observed climatology and atmospheric CO₂, to model the contemporary global carbon cycle. The DGVMs are also coupled to a fast ‘climate analogue model’, based on the Hadley Centre General Circulation Model (GCM), and run into the future for four Special Report Emission Scenarios (SRES): A1FI, A2, B1, B2. Results show that all DGVMs are consistent with the contemporary global land carbon budget. Under the more extreme projections of future environmental change, the responses of the DGVMs diverge markedly. In particular, large uncertainties are associated with the response of tropical vegetation to drought and boreal ecosystems to elevated temperatures and changing soil moisture status. The DGVMs show more divergence in their response to regional changes in climate than to increases in atmospheric CO₂ content. All models simulate a release of land carbon in response to climate, when physiological effects of elevated atmospheric CO₂ on plant production are not considered, implying a positive terrestrial climate‐carbon cycle feedback. All DGVMs simulate a reduction in global net primary production (NPP) and a decrease in soil residence time in the tropics and extra‐tropics in response to future climate. When both counteracting effects of climate and atmospheric CO₂ on ecosystem function are considered, all the DGVMs simulate cumulative net land carbon uptake over the 21st century for the four SRES emission scenarios. However, for the most extreme A1FI emissions scenario, three out of five DGVMs simulate an annual net source of CO₂ from the land to the atmosphere in the final decades of the 21st century. For this scenario, cumulative land uptake differs by 494 Pg C among DGVMs over the 21st century. This uncertainty is equivalent to over 50 years of anthropogenic emissions at current levels.     

Terrestrial carbon sinks in China and around the world and their contribution to carbon neutrality

Enhancing the terrestrial ecosystem carbon sink (referred to as terrestrial C sink) is an important way to slow down the continuous increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentration and to achieve carbon neutrality target. To better understand the characteristics of terrestrial C sinks and their contribution to carbon neutrality, this review summarizes major progress in terrestrial C budget researches during the past decades, clarifies spatial patterns and drivers of terrestrial C sources and sinks in China and around the world, and examines the role of terrestrial C sinks in achieving carbon neutrality target. According to recent studies, the global terrestrial C sink has been increasing from a source of (?0.2±0.9) Pg C yr^?1 (1 Pg=10¹⁵ g) in the 1960s to a sink of (1.9±1.1) Pg C yr^?1 in the 2010s. By synthesizing the published data, we estimate terrestrial C sink of 0.20–0.25 Pg C yr^?1 in China during the past decades, and predict it to be 0.15–0.52 Pg C yr^?1 by 2060. The terrestrial C sinks are mainly located in the mid- and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, while tropical regions act as a weak C sink or source. The C balance differs much among ecosystem types: forest is the major C sink; shrubland, wetland and farmland soil act as C sinks; and whether the grassland functions as C sink or source remains unclear. Desert might be a C sink, but the magnitude and the associated mechanisms are still controversial. Elevated atmospheric CO₂ concentration, nitrogen deposition, climate change, and land cover change are the main drivers of terrestrial C sinks, while other factors such as fires and aerosols would also affect ecosystem C balance. The driving factors of terrestrial C sink differ among regions. Elevated CO₂ concentration and climate change are major drivers of the C sinks in North America and Europe, while afforestation and ecological restoration are additionally important forcing factors of terrestrial C sinks in China. For future studies, we recommend the necessity for intensive and long term ecosystem C monitoring over broad geographic scale to improve terrestrial biosphere models for accurately evaluating terrestrial C budget and its dynamics under various climate change and policy scenarios.

     

Precipitation‐drainage cycles lead to hot moments in soil carbon dioxide dynamics in a Neotropical wet forest

Soil CO₂ concentrations and emissions from tropical forests are modulated seasonally by precipitation. However, subseasonal responses to meteorological events (e.g., storms, drought) are less well known. Here, we present the effects of meteorological variability on short‐term (hours to months) dynamics of soil CO₂ concentrations and emissions in a Neotropical wet forest. We continuously monitored soil temperature, moisture, and CO₂ for a three‐year period (2015–2017), encompassing normal conditions, floods, a dry El Niño period, and a hurricane. We used a coupled model (Hydrus‐1D) for soil water propagation, heat transfer, and diffusive gas transport to explain observed soil moisture, soil temperature, and soil CO₂ concentration responses to meteorology, and we estimated soil CO₂ efflux with a gradient‐flux model. Then, we predicted changes in soil CO₂ concentrations and emissions under different warming climate change scenarios. Observed short‐term (hourly to daily) soil CO₂ concentration responded more to precipitation than to other meteorological variables (including lower pressure during the hurricane). Observed soil CO₂ failed to exhibit diel patterns (associated with diel temperature fluctuations in drier climates), except during the drier El Niño period. Climate change scenarios showed enhanced soil CO₂ due to warmer conditions, while precipitation played a critical role in moderating the balance between concentrations and emissions. The scenario with increased precipitation (based on a regional model projection) led to increases of +11% in soil CO₂ concentrations and +4% in soil CO₂ emissions. The scenario with decreased precipitation (based on global circulation model projections) resulted in increases of +4% in soil CO₂ concentrations and +18% in soil CO₂ emissions, and presented more prominent hot moments in soil CO₂ outgassing. These findings suggest that soil CO₂ will increase under warmer climate in tropical wet forests, and precipitation patterns will define the intensity of CO₂ outgassing hot moments.     

A global comparison of grassland biomass responses to CO2 and nitrogen enrichment

Grassland ecosystems cover vast areas of the Earth''s surface and provide many ecosystem services including carbon (C) storage, biodiversity preservation and the production of livestock forage. Predicting the future delivery of these services is difficult, because widespread changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentration, climate and nitrogen (N) inputs are expected. We compiled published data from global change driver manipulation experiments and combined these with climate data to assess grassland biomass responses to CO₂ and N enrichment across a range of climates. CO₂ and N enrichment generally increased aboveground biomass (AGB) but effects of CO₂ enrichment were weaker than those of N. The response to N was also dependent on the amount of N added and rainfall, with a greater response in high precipitation regions. No relationship between response to CO₂ and climate was detected within our dataset, thus suggesting that other site characteristics, e.g. soils and plant community composition, are more important regulators of grassland responses to CO₂. A statistical model of AGB response to N was used in conjunction with projected N deposition data to estimate changes to future biomass stocks. This highlighted several potential hotspots (e.g. in some regions of China and India) of grassland AGB gain. Possible benefits for C sequestration and forage production in these regions may be offset by declines in plant biodiversity caused by these biomass gains, thus necessitating careful management if ecosystem service delivery is to be maximized. An approach such as ours, in which meta-analysis is combined with global scale model outputs to make large-scale predictions, may complement the results of dynamic global vegetation models, thus allowing us to form better predictions of biosphere responses to environmental change.     

Terrestrial nitrogen–carbon cycle interactions at the global scale

Interactions between the terrestrial nitrogen (N) and carbon (C) cycles shape the response of ecosystems to global change. However, the global distribution of nitrogen availability and its importance in global biogeochemistry and biogeochemical interactions with the climate system remain uncertain. Based on projections of a terrestrial biosphere model scaling ecological understanding of nitrogen–carbon cycle interactions to global scales, anthropogenic nitrogen additions since 1860 are estimated to have enriched the terrestrial biosphere by 1.3 Pg N, supporting the sequestration of 11.2 Pg C. Over the same time period, CO₂ fertilization has increased terrestrial carbon storage by 134.0 Pg C, increasing the terrestrial nitrogen stock by 1.2 Pg N. In 2001–2010, terrestrial ecosystems sequestered an estimated total of 27 Tg N yr⁻¹ (1.9 Pg C yr⁻¹), of which 10 Tg N yr⁻¹ (0.2 Pg C yr⁻¹) are due to anthropogenic nitrogen deposition. Nitrogen availability already limits terrestrial carbon sequestration in the boreal and temperate zone, and will constrain future carbon sequestration in response to CO₂ fertilization (regionally by up to 70% compared with an estimate without considering nitrogen–carbon interactions). This reduced terrestrial carbon uptake will probably dominate the role of the terrestrial nitrogen cycle in the climate system, as it accelerates the accumulation of anthropogenic CO₂ in the atmosphere. However, increases of N₂O emissions owing to anthropogenic nitrogen and climate change (at a rate of approx. 0.5 Tg N yr⁻¹ per 1°C degree climate warming) will add an important long-term climate forcing.     

Warming Reduces Carbon Losses from Grassland Exposed to Elevated Atmospheric Carbon Dioxide

The flux of carbon dioxide (CO₂) between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere may ameliorate or exacerbate climate change, depending on the relative responses of ecosystem photosynthesis and respiration to warming temperatures, rising atmospheric CO₂, and altered precipitation. The combined effect of these global change factors is especially uncertain because of their potential for interactions and indirectly mediated conditions such as soil moisture. Here, we present observations of CO₂ fluxes from a multi-factor experiment in semi-arid grassland that suggests a potentially strong climate – carbon cycle feedback under combined elevated [CO₂] and warming. Elevated [CO₂] alone, and in combination with warming, enhanced ecosystem respiration to a greater extent than photosynthesis, resulting in net C loss over four years. The effect of warming was to reduce respiration especially during years of below-average precipitation, by partially offsetting the effect of elevated [CO₂] on soil moisture and C cycling. Carbon losses were explained partly by stimulated decomposition of soil organic matter with elevated [CO₂]. The climate – carbon cycle feedback observed in this semiarid grassland was mediated by soil water content, which was reduced by warming and increased by elevated [CO₂]. Ecosystem models should incorporate direct and indirect effects of climate change on soil water content in order to accurately predict terrestrial feedbacks and long-term storage of C in soil.     

Using soil sensing technology to examine interactions and controls between ectomycorrhizal growth and environmental factors on soil CO2 dynamics

Soils play a critical role in the global carbon cycle, yet the biophysical factors regulating soil CO₂ dynamics remain unclear. We combined high-frequency in situ observations of fine roots and ectomycorrhizal (EM) fungi with data from multiple soil sensor arrays to examine the biophysical interactions influencing soil CO₂ production for one year in a mixed conifer forest. Using structural equation modeling we constructed a hypothesized model to test for causal interactions among environmental factors, biotic factors, and soil CO₂ dynamics throughout the soil profile. According to our model, seasonal variation in CO₂ production was significantly influenced by EM rhizomorph production, soil temperature, and soil moisture. Fine root production, on the other hand, did not appear to significantly influence soil CO₂ production. The relationship between EM rhizomorph production and soil CO₂ production was also supported by a zero temporal lag between these two measurements in a cross-correlation analysis. In contrast, CO₂ production increased before fine root production suggesting that these two measurements were decoupled in time. Results from this study highlight the need to better understand differences in carbon allocation between plant roots and EM fungi to improve our predictions of soil carbon dynamics under global climate change.     

Climatic role of terrestrial ecosystem under elevated CO2: a bottom‐up greenhouse gases budget

The net balance of greenhouse gas (GHG) exchanges between terrestrial ecosystems and the atmosphere under elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) remains poorly understood. Here, we synthesise 1655 measurements from 169 published studies to assess GHGs budget of terrestrial ecosystems under elevated CO₂. We show that elevated CO₂ significantly stimulates plant C pool (NPP) by 20%, soil CO₂ fluxes by 24%, and methane (CH₄) fluxes by 34% from rice paddies and by 12% from natural wetlands, while it slightly decreases CH₄ uptake of upland soils by 3.8%. Elevated CO₂ causes insignificant increases in soil nitrous oxide (N₂O) fluxes (4.6%), soil organic C (4.3%) and N (3.6%) pools. The elevated CO₂‐induced increase in GHG emissions may decline with CO₂ enrichment levels. An elevated CO₂‐induced rise in soil CH₄ and N₂O emissions (2.76 Pg CO₂‐equivalent year^?1) could negate soil C enrichment (2.42 Pg CO₂ year^?1) or reduce mitigation potential of terrestrial net ecosystem production by as much as 69% (NEP, 3.99 Pg CO₂ year^?1) under elevated CO₂. Our analysis highlights that the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems to act as a sink to slow climate warming under elevated CO₂ might have been largely offset by its induced increases in soil GHGs source strength.     

Enhanced terrestrial carbon uptake in the Northern High Latitudes in the 21st century from the Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project model projections

The ongoing and projected warming in the northern high latitudes (NHL; poleward of 60 °N) may lead to dramatic changes in the terrestrial carbon cycle. On the one hand, warming and increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration stimulate vegetation productivity, taking up CO₂. On the other hand, warming accelerates the decomposition of soil organic matter (SOM), releasing carbon into the atmosphere. Here, the NHL terrestrial carbon storage is investigated based on 10 models from the Coupled Carbon Cycle Climate Model Intercomparison Project. Our analysis suggests that the NHL will be a carbon sink of 0.3 ± 0.3 Pg C yr^?1 by 2100. The cumulative land organic carbon storage is modeled to increase by 38 ± 20 Pg C over 1901 levels, of which 17 ± 8 Pg C comes from vegetation (43%) and 21 ± 16 Pg C from the soil (8%). Both CO₂ fertilization and warming enhance vegetation growth in the NHL. Although the intense warming there enhances SOM decomposition, soil organic carbon (SOC) storage continues to increase in the 21st century. This is because higher vegetation productivity leads to more turnover (litterfall) into the soil, a process that has received relatively little attention. However, the projected growth rate of SOC begins to level off after 2060 when SOM decomposition accelerates at high temperature and then catches up with the increasing input from vegetation turnover. Such competing mechanisms may lead to a switch of the NHL SOC pool from a sink to a source after 2100 under more intense warming, but large uncertainty exists due to our incomplete understanding of processes such as the strength of the CO₂ fertilization effect, permafrost, and the role of soil moisture. Unlike the CO₂ fertilization effect that enhances vegetation productivity across the world, global warming increases the productivity at high latitudes but tends to reduce it in the tropics and mid‐latitudes. These effects are further enhanced as a result of positive carbon cycle–climate feedbacks due to additional CO₂ and warming.     

Meta-analysis shows forest soil CO2 effluxes are dependent on the disturbance regime and biome type

Forest soil CO₂ efflux (FCO₂) is a crucial process in global carbon cycling; however, how FCO₂ responds to disturbance regimes in different forest biomes is poorly understood. We quantified the effects of disturbance regimes on FCO₂ across boreal, temperate, tropical and Mediterranean forests based on 1240 observations from 380 studies. Globally, climatic perturbations such as elevated CO₂ concentration, warming and increased precipitation increase FCO₂ by 13% to 25%. FCO₂ is increased by forest conversion to grassland and elevated carbon input by forest management practices but reduced by decreased carbon input, fire and acid rain. Disturbance also changes soil temperature and water content, which in turn affect the direction and magnitude of disturbance influences on FCO₂. FCO₂ is disturbance- and biome-type dependent and such effects should be incorporated into earth system models to improve the projection of the feedback between the terrestrial C cycle and climate change.