Can the assumption of a non‐random search improve our prediction of butterfly fluxes between resource patches?

Abstract. 1. Understanding dispersal patterns that enable small, spatially isolated populations to survive in fragmented landscapes has become an important issue in conservation biology and landscape management. However, for most of the species of interest it is not known whether dispersing individuals navigate or follow systematic search strategies, as opposed to moving randomly. 2. Recently it was shown that individuals of the butterfly species Maniola jurtina do not seek resources by means of random flight. If true, this may be problematic for existing metapopulation models, including those based on the evolution of dispersal rates in metapopulations. 3. The study tested to what extent the non‐random dispersal patterns described in the literature can explain M. jurtina fluxes in its natural habitat. 4. A model based on literature assumptions of M. jurtina movements is presented in the work reported here, and its predictions are compared with 2 years of capture–recapture data on its fluxes in two landscapes. 5. The model provides a good fit to the data and gives better predictions than the model based only on patch sizes and distances between patches. 6. Thus, if data are available about the actual landscape under consideration, the model should be preferred to simpler approaches; however, in general theoretical considerations the simple approach based on patch size and the degree of its isolation will retain its value.     

Dispersal mood revealed by shifts from routine to direct flights in the meadow brown butterfly Maniola jurtina

A comprehensive mechanistic approach to dispersal requires the translation of the whole mobility register of the target organism into movement rules that could subsequently be used to model its displacements. According to the optimality paradigm, this procedure implies a cost–benefit analysis of mobility patterns taking into account not only movements, but also their external context and the internal state of the moving individuals. Using this framework, we detected a ‘dispersal mood’ in some individuals of the meadow brown butterfly Maniola jurtina. These adopted a direct flight strategy, which was topologically different from the previously documented foray search strategy. Those individuals that used the direct flight strategy moved straighter as soon as they left the habitat and avoided heading back to their patch of origin, which is the best inter‐patch search strategy when dispersal risks and costs are high. The direct flight strategy was conditional to sex: females used it twice as much as males. We suggest that this sex bias was due to female investment in offspring, which is maximized by male avoidance and spatial bet hedging. Inter‐patch dispersal of gravid females is crucial for the persistence of M. jurtina populations in spatially and temporally unpredictable environments.     

Butterfly habitats, broad-scale biotope affiliations, and structural exploitation of vegetation at finer scales: the matrix revisited

Abstract. 1. Biotope and resources data are rarely attached to arthropod (butterfly) synoptic monitoring systems, and invariably not linked to behavioural exploitation of vegetation substrates. Yet, these data allow us to examine resource use within different biotopes and to distinguish more clearly between habitat and the matrix. 2. Comparative data on vegetation exploitation for different behaviours (search flight, direct flight, tactile inspections, perching, feeding, interactions, oviposition) were collected using transect sections over a range of biotopes from bare ground to mature woodland for two closely related satyrine butterflies, Maniola jurtina and Pyronia tithonus with overlapping flight times. Occupancy data were obtained on Pararge aegeria as a marker for the woodland end of the biotope spectrum. 3. There were clear distinctions in biotope occupancy between M. jurtina (grassland bias) and P. tithonus (shrub bias); significant differences in exploitation of vegetation substrates (except for nectar feeding) coincided with this bias in transect sections which comprise both grassland and shrubs. The exception (nectar feeding) is explained by the decline in shrub (Rubus fruticosus) nectar and increase in herb nectar during the later emergence of P. tithonus. 4. Direct flight increased in unsuitable biotopes for both species. However, resource‐exploiting behaviour (>70%) predominated even in biotopes that would be regarded as completely unsuitable for supporting the species and where less than 2% of individuals for each species were observed. 5. Simultaneous collection of biotope, resources, and behavioural data is needed for monitoring affinities of butterflies to vegetation structures and using butterflies as indicators of environmental changes. 6. Much of the landscape is shown to comprise valuable resources for butterflies, even when classified for metapopulation studies as empty matrix.     

Synchrony of butterfly populations across species' geographic ranges

Understanding the mechanisms by which global climate change and habitat loss impact upon biodiversity is essential in order to mitigate any negative impacts. One such impact may be changes to population synchrony (defined as correlated fluctuations in the density of separate populations). It is well established that synchrony depends on both dispersal ability and correlated environmental conditions, for example shared climate. However, what is not clear is whether differences in habitat or position within a species' range also mediate synchrony. Since synchronous metapopulations are thought to be more extinction‐prone, establishing the drivers of synchrony has clear conservation implications. Using three butterfly species (Maniola jurtina, Pyronia tithonus and Aphantopus hyperantus) we investigated the effects of habitat similarity and range position on population synchrony, after accounting for the effects of distance and climate. Range position was present in all minimum adequate models, though non‐significant using Mantel randomization tests in one case. We show that M. jurtina and P. tithonus synchrony is not consistent across species' ranges, with marginal populations showing more synchronous dynamics. Increased climatic constraints on marginal populations, leading to a narrower range of suitable microhabitats may be responsible for this, which is supported by the result that habitat similarity between sites was also positively correlated with population synchrony. As the landscape becomes increasingly homogeneous, overall population synchrony may be expected to rise. We conclude that habitat modification and climate change have the capacity to drive changes in population synchrony that could make species more vulnerable to extinction.     

Interrelations Among Habitat Use, Behavior, and Flight-Related Morphology in Two Cooccurring Satyrine Butterflies, Maniola jurtina and Pyronia tithonus

Mobility, activity patterns, habitat use, and some morphological traits of two often cooccurring satyrine butterflies of grasslands—the meadow brown (Maniola jurtina) and the hedge brown (Pyronia tithonus)—were studied by a mark-release-recapture method at two sites. Additionally, someflight-related morphological traits of a series of collected females of P. tithonus were compared between recently colonized and permanent populations. The more active, but less mobile P. tithonus got faster wing damage than did M. jurtina and had more, and more symmetrically spread eyespots onthe wings. For both species, the microdistribution was affected by shelter, long vegetation, and nectar, but this was more pronounced in P. tithonus. It is hypothesized that P. tithonus may traverse the same landscape at a slower rate than M. jurtina.     

Potential metapopulation structure and the effects of habitat quality on population size of the endangered False Ringlet butterfly

The False Ringlet (Coenonympha oedippus) is a European butterfly species, endangered due to the severe loss and fragmentation of its habitat. In Hungary, two remaining populations of the butterfly occur in lowland Purple Moorgrass meadows. We studied a metapopulation occupying twelve habitat patches in Central Hungary. Our aim was to reveal what measures of habitat quality affect population size and density of this metapopulation, estimate dispersal parameters and describe phenology of subpopulations. Local population sizes and dispersal parameters were estimated from an extensive mark–release–recapture dataset, while habitat quality was characterized by groundwater level, cover of grass tussocks, bush cover, height of vegetation and grass litter at each habitat patch. The estimated size of the metapopulation was more than 3,000 individuals. We estimated a low dispersal capacity, especially for females, indicating a very low probability of (re)colonization. Butterfly abundance and density in local populations increased with higher grass litter, lower groundwater level and larger area covered by tussocks. We suppose that these environmental factors affect butterfly abundance by determining the microclimatic conditions for both larvae and adult butterflies. Our results suggest that the long-term preservation of the studied metapopulation needs the maintenance of high quality habitat patches by appropriate mowing regime and water regulation. Management also should facilitate dispersal to strengthen metapopulation structure with creating stepping-stones or gradually increase habitat quality in present matrix.     

The evolution of an 'intelligent' dispersal strategy: biased, correlated random walks in patchy landscapes

Theoretical work exploring dispersal evolution focuses on the emigration rate of individuals and typically assumes that movement occurs either at random to any other patch or to one of the nearest‐neighbour patches. There is a lack of work exploring the process by which individuals move between patches, and how this process evolves. This is of concern because any organism that can exert control over dispersal direction can potentially evolve efficiencies in locating patches, and the process by which individuals find new patches will potentially have major effects on metapopulation dynamics and gene flow. Here, we take an initial step towards filling this knowledge gap. To do this we constructed a continuous space population model, in which individuals each carry heritable trait values that specify the characteristics of the biased correlated random walk they use to disperse from their natal patch. We explore how the evolution of the random walk depends upon the cost of dispersal, the density of patches in the landscape, and the emigration rate. The clearest result is that highly correlated walks always evolved (individuals tended to disperse in relatively straight lines from their natal patch), reflecting the efficiency of straight‐line movement. In our models, more costly dispersal resulted in walks with higher correlation between successive steps. However, the exact walk that evolved also depended upon the density of suitable habitat patches, with low density habitat evolving more biased walks (individuals which orient towards suitable habitat at quite large distances from that habitat). Thus, low density habitat will tend to develop individuals which disperse efficiently between adjacent habitat patches but which only rarely disperse to more distant patches; a result that has clear implications for metapopulation theory. Hence, an understanding of the movement behaviour of dispersing individuals is critical for robust long‐term predictions of population dynamics in fragmented landscapes.     

Spatial Heterogeneity in Habitat Quality and Cross-Scale Interactions in Metapopulations

Abstract Integration of habitat heterogeneity into spatially realistic metapopulation approaches reveals the potential for key cross-scale interactions. Broad-scale environmental gradients and land-use practices can create autocorrelation of habitat quality of suitable patches at intermediate spatial scales. Patch occupancy then depends not only on habitat quality at the patch scale but also on feedbacks from surrounding neighborhoods of autocorrelated patches. Metapopulation dynamics emerge from how demographic and dispersal processes interact with relevant habitat heterogeneity. We provide an empirical example from a metapopulation of round-tailed muskrats (Neofiber alleni) in which habitat quality of suitable patches was spatially autocorrelated most strongly within 1,000 m, which was within the expected dispersal range of the species. After controlling for factors typically considered in metapopulation studies—patch size, local patch quality, patch connectivity—we use a cross-variogram analysis to demonstrate that patch occupancy by muskrats was correlated with habitat quality across scales ≤1,171 m. We also discuss general consequences of spatial heterogeneity of habitat quality for metapopulations related to potential cross-scale interactions. We focus on spatially correlated extinctions and metapopulation persistence, hierarchical scaling of source–sink dynamics, and dispersal decisions by individuals in relation to information constraints.     

High-speed railways are not barriers to Pyronia tithonus butterfly movements

Linear infrastructures such as railways and roads can be barriers to the movements of individuals and, hence, may have strong impacts on populations. We tested the barrier effect of a high-speed railway for Pyronia tithonus, a butterfly species showing homing behaviour when displaced. We captured, marked and displaced 152?individuals in two different locations. One-third of the butterflies were released at a capture plot, one-third on the other side of the railway (in a similar habitat) and one-third on the same side but 100?m away from the capture plot. We obtained recapture rates of 40 and 23?% per location. Many (31?%) butterflies crossed the railway, showing homing behaviour. Thus, contrary to wide, busy roads, high-speed railways do not seem to be barriers for these butterflies. We suggest that in an intensive agrarian landscape, railway verges can play a substitution habitat role for grassland butterflies.     

Non-random dispersal in the butterfly Maniola jurtina: implications for metapopulation models

The dispersal patterns of animals are important in metapopulation ecology because they affect the dynamics and survival of populations. Theoretical models assume random dispersal but little is known in practice about the dispersal behaviour of individual animals or the strategy by which dispersers locate distant habitat patches. In the present study, we released individual meadow brown butterflies (Maniola jurtina) in a non-habitat and investigated their ability to return to a suitable habitat. The results provided three reasons for supposing that meadow brown butterflies do not seek habitat by means of random flight. First, when released within the range of their normal dispersal distances, the butterflies orientated towards suitable habitat at a higher rate than expected at random. Second, when released at larger distances from their habitat, they used a non-random, systematic, search strategy in which they flew in loops around the release point and returned periodically to it. Third, butterflies returned to a familiar habitat patch rather than a non-familiar one when given a choice. If dispersers actively orientate towards or search systematically for distant habitat, this may be problematic for existing metapopulation models, including models of the evolution of dispersal rates in metapopulations.     

Size and genetic composition of the colonizing propagules in a butterfly metapopulation

The amount and spatial distribution of genetic variation that is maintained in a metapopulation depends critically on the colonization process. Here, we use molecular markers to determine the number and genetic relatedness of individuals establishing new local populations in a large metapopulation of the Glanville fritillary butterfly Melitaea cinxia. The empirical results are compared with the predictions of a dispersal model based on a diffusion approximation of correlated random walk, which serves as a base‐line hypothesis about the rate and pattern of colonization. The results show that half of the new local populations consisted of a single larval group of full sibs and hence necessarily of the offspring of a single female. If the colonization involved two or more larval groups, these were usually oviposited by two different females that were unrelated to each other. The pattern of colonizations is thus intermediate between the propagule pool and the migrant pool models. These results elucidate the generation of genetic stochasticity, which may influence the dynamics of small populations. The dispersal model predicted well the pattern of habitat occupancy and the pattern of colonizations in relation to landscape structure, though which particular habitat patches became colonized was influenced also by measures of habitat quality not included in the model.     

Metapopulation dynamics in a changing climate: Increasing spatial synchrony in weather conditions drives metapopulation synchrony of a butterfly inhabiting a fragmented landscape

Habitat fragmentation and climate change are both prominent manifestations of global change, but there is little knowledge on the specific mechanisms of how climate change may modify the effects of habitat fragmentation, for example, by altering dynamics of spatially structured populations. The long‐term viability of metapopulations is dependent on independent dynamics of local populations, because it mitigates fluctuations in the size of the metapopulation as a whole. Metapopulation viability will be compromised if climate change increases spatial synchrony in weather conditions associated with population growth rates. We studied a recently reported increase in metapopulation synchrony of the Glanville fritillary butterfly (Melitaea cinxia) in the Finnish archipelago, to see if it could be explained by an increase in synchrony of weather conditions. For this, we used 23 years of butterfly survey data together with monthly weather records for the same period. We first examined the associations between population growth rates within different regions of the metapopulation and weather conditions during different life‐history stages of the butterfly. We then examined the association between the trends in the synchrony of the weather conditions and the synchrony of the butterfly metapopulation dynamics. We found that precipitation from spring to late summer are associated with the M. cinxia per capita growth rate, with early summer conditions being most important. We further found that the increase in metapopulation synchrony is paralleled by an increase in the synchrony of weather conditions. Alternative explanations for spatial synchrony, such as increased dispersal or trophic interactions with a specialist parasitoid, did not show paralleled trends and are not supported. The climate driven increase in M. cinxia metapopulation synchrony suggests that climate change can increase extinction risk of spatially structured populations living in fragmented landscapes by altering their dynamics.     

Persistence of species in a fragmented urban landscape: the importance of dispersal ability and habitat availability for grassland butterflies

Some species cope with, and survive in, urban areas better than others.From a conservation viewpoint it is important to understand why some species arerare or are excluded in the urban landscape, in order that we might take actionto conserve and restore species. Two ecological factors that might explain thedistribution and abundance of butterfly species in the urban landscape aredispersal ability and the availability of suitable habitat. The influence ofthese factors was assessed by examining the distribution and genetic structureof four grassland butterfly species in the West Midlands conurbation, UK. Thefour species differ in their distribution and abundance, mobility and habitatspecificity. No significant fit to the isolation-by-distance model was found forany of the study species at this spatial scale. MeanF _ST values revealed a non-significant level ofpopulation structuring for two species, Pieris napi (L.)and Maniola jurtina (L.), but moderate and significantpopulation differentiation for Pyronia tithonus (L.) andCoenonympha pamphilus (L.). Results suggest that thesespecies are limited more by the availability of suitable habitat than by theirability to move among habitat patches. Conservation strategies for thesegrassland species should initially focus on the creation and appropriatemanagement of suitable habitat. More sedentary species that have already beenexcluded from the conurbation may require a more complex strategy for theirsuccessful restoration.     

Effect of local weather on butterfly flight behaviour,movement, and colonization: significance for dispersal under climate change

Recent climate change is recognized as a main cause of shifts in geographical distributions of species. The impacts of climate change may be aggravated by habitat fragmentation, causing regional or large scale extinctions. However, we propose that climate change also may diminish the effects of fragmentation by enhancing flight behaviour and dispersal of ectothermic species like butterflies. We show that under weather conditions associated with anticipated climate change, behavioural components of dispersal of butterflies are enhanced, and colonization frequencies increase. In a field study, we recorded flight behaviour and mobility of four butterfly species: two habitat generalists (Coenonympha pamphilus; Maniola jurtina) and two specialists (Melitaea athalia; Plebejus argus), under different weather conditions. Flying bout duration generally increased with temperature and decreased with cloudiness. Proportion of time spent flying decreased with cloudiness. Net displacement generally increased with temperature. When butterflies fly longer, start flying more readily and fly over longer distances, we expect dispersal propensity to increase. Monitoring data showed that colonization frequencies moreover increased with temperature and radiation and decreased with cloudiness. Increased dispersal propensity at local scale might therefore lower the impact of habitat fragmentation on the distribution at a regional scale. Synergetic effects of climate change and habitat fragmentation on population dynamics and species distributions might therefore appear to be more complex than previously assumed.     

Metapopulation dynamics of the bog fritillary butterfly: experimental changes in habitat quality induced negative density‐dependent dispersal

Habitat quality and habitat geometry are two crucial factors driving metapopulation dynamics. However, their intricacy has prevented so far a reliable test of their relative impact on local population dynamics and persistence. Here we report on a long‐term study in which we manipulated habitat quality within a butterfly metapopulation, whereas habitat geometry was kept constant. The treatment consisted in lowering the quality of certain habitat patches while others were kept untreated, using the same spatial design over years. The effect of the treatment on metapopulation dynamics was assessed by comparing residence probability and dispersal rates within the same habitat network on 11 and 6 independent butterfly generations before and after treatment, respectively. Results showed that the experimental decrease in habitat quality generated significantly higher emigration rates from treated patches. This increase was associated with a significant decrease in dispersal rates out of untreated patches, and a significant higher residence probability in these patches. The direct relation between lower habitat quality and higher dispersal propensity in treated patches was expected. However, the lower dispersal from untreated patches after treatment was opposite to the expectation of positive density dependent dispersal generally observed in butterflies. Such negative density‐dependent dispersal would allow a rapid fine‐tuning of dispersal rates to changes in habitat quality, particularly when the spatial autocorrelation of the environmental is low. Accordingly, dispersal would promote an ideal free distribution of individuals in the landscape according to their fitness expectation.     

Ecological differentiation between the Sardinian endemic Maniola nurag and the pan-European M. jurtina

Recently refined evolutionary theories have highlighted that ecological interactions and environmental gradients can play a major role in speciation. This paper reports on a 3‐year field study, in which the ecology of two congeneric butterfly species was used to explore and compare the environmental factors determining their spatial distribution. These data are discussed in the context of possible speciation scenarios between the Sardinian populations of Maniola nurag and M. jurtina. M. nurag is endemic to the island of Sardinia, while M. jurtina is widespread over Europe. In Sardinia, the two species are locally sympatric. Mark–release–recapture experiments were combined with measures of environmental variables in 15 1‐ha plots, established in areas of potential habitat for the butterflies. Constrained linear models were parameterized from mark–recapture data to estimate both individual (survival and capture probabilities) and population (population size and recruitment) parameters. The two species had similar demography, movement patterns, life history, and behaviour. Population sizes developed in a parabolic fashion from beginning to end of the flight season. Differences included local population size, adult phenology, and habitat requirements. Long‐distance movements larger than 1.5 km were observed, suggesting a substantial amount of gene‐flow between populations of the endemic as well as the widespread species. Multivariate analyses revealed four main environmental gradients responsible for the abundance of the butterflies in an area. Both species responded similarly to environmental variables. However, each species’s abundance was correlated with a different environmental gradient determined by vegetation cover and structure. When sympatric, the two species responded to subtle differences in microhabitat structure. This might originally have induced their divergence. This study is an example of how empirical field data on population dynamics, dispersal, and habitat characteristics of two sympatric congeners can further our understanding of how species differentiate despite existing gene‐flow. © 2006 The Linnean Society of London, Biological Journal of the Linnean Society, 2006, 89 , 561–574.     

Dispersal, distribution, patch network and metapopulation dynamics of the dingy skipper butterfly (Erynnis tages)

Two general approaches have usually been taken towards understanding the distributions and dynamics of localised species in heterogeneous landscapes, namely habitat characterisation and metapopulation dynamics. We show how habitat and metapopulation dynamics interact to generate a highly localised distribution of a butterfly, despite the extremely widespread nature of the butterfly’s host plant. Egg placement, macro-habitat requirements and dispersal were studied for the butterfly Erynnis tages, in North Wales, where it shows a restricted distribution relative to that of its host plant, Lotus corniculatus. Females laid eggs disproportionately on large plants growing in hollows, with intermediate cover of bare ground and high cover of L. corniculatus. Ideal macro-habitat, studied at 100-m grid resolution, consisted of areas with high host plant densities, sheltered from wind, with light or no grazing or cutting. These specialised conditions are represented as localised patches in the landscape, and define the potential habitat network, within which metapopulation dynamics take place. Although there was a moderate (22%) level of exchange of individual E. tages among local populations, the total number of potential colonists in the whole system was low because source population sizes were small (≤200 individuals at peak in any site in 1997 and 1998). Four unoccupied but apparently suitable 500-m grid squares were colonised between 1997 and 1998, and isolated habitat was less likely to be occupied. Overall, our study suggests that long-term regional persistence of E. tages is very likely to depend on metapopulation processes within the restricted patch network, rather than on the long-term survival of local populations. Received: 25 May 1999 / Accepted: 9 August 1999     

Determinants of distribution and abundance in the clouded apollo butterfly: a landscape ecological approach

Recent studies on the determinants of distribution and abundance of animals at landscape level have emphasized the usefulness of the metapopulation approach, in which patch area and habitat connectivity have often proved to explain satisfactorily existing patch occupancy patterns. A different approach is needed to study the common situation in which suitable habitat is difficult to determine or does not occur in well‐defined habitat patches. We applied a landscape ecological approach to study the determinants of distribution and abundance of the threatened clouded apollo Parnassius mnemosyne butterfly within an area of 6 km² of agricultural landscape in south‐western Finland. The relative role of 24 environmental variables potentially affecting the distribution and abundance of the butterfly was studied using a spatial grid system with 2408 grid squares of 0.25 ha, of which 349 were occupied by the clouded apollo. Both the probability of butterfly presence and abundance in a 0.25 ha square increased with the presence of the larval host plant Corydalis solida the cover of semi‐natural grassland, the amount of solar radiation and spalial autocorrelation in butterfly occurrence. Additionally, butterfly abundance increased with overall mean patch size and decreased with maximum slope angle and wind speed. Two advantages of the employment of a spatial grid system included the avoidance of a subjective definition of suitable habitat patches and an evaluation of the relative significance of different components of habitat quality at the same time with habitat availability and connectivity. The large variation in habitat quality was influenced by the abundance of the larval host plant and adult nectar sources but also by climatological. topographical and structural factors. The application of a spatial grid system as used here has potential for a wide use in studies on landscape‐level distribution and abundance patterns in species with complex habitat requirements and habitat availability patterns.     

Effect of habitat fragmentation on dispersal in the butterfly Proclossiana eunomia

Comparison of dispersal rates of the bog fritillary butterfly between continuous and fragmented landscapes indicates that between patch dispersal is significantly lower in the fragmented landscape, while population densities are of the same order of magnitude. Analyses of the dynamics of the suitable habitat for the butterfly in the fragmented landscape reveal a severe, non linear increase in spatial isolation of patches over a time period of 30 years (i.e. 30 butterfly generations), but simulations of the butterfly metapopulation dynamics using a structured population model show that the lower dispersal rates in the fragmented landscape are far above the critical threshold leading to metapopulation extinction. These results indicate that changes in individual behaviour leading to the decrease of dispersal rates in the fragmented landscape were rapidly selected for when patch spatial isolation increased. The evidence of such an adaptive answer to habitat fragmentation suggests that dispersal mortality is a key factor for metapopulation persistence in fragmented landscapes. We emphasise that landscape spatial configuration and patch isolation have to be taken into account in the debate about large-scale conservation strategies.     

Biased correlated random walk and foray loop: which movement hypothesis drives a butterfly metapopulation?

Animals in fragmented landscapes have a major challenge to move between high-quality habitat patches through lower-quality matrix. Two current mechanistic hypotheses that describe the movement used by animals outside of their preferred patches (e.g., high-quality habitat or home range) are the biased, correlated random walk (BCRW) and the foray loop (FL). There is also a variant of FL with directed movement (FL_dm). While these have been most extensively tested on butterflies, they have never been tested simultaneously with data across a whole metapopulation and over multiple generations, two key scales for population dynamics. Using the pattern-oriented approach, we compare support for these competing hypotheses with a spatially explicit individual-based simulation model on an 11-year dataset that follows 12 patches of the federally endangered Fender’s blue butterfly (Plebejus icarioides fenderi) in Oregon’s Willamette Valley. BCRW and medium-scale FL and FL_dm scenarios predicted the annual total metapopulation size for ≥9 of 12 patches as well as patch extinctions. The key difference, however, was that the FL scenarios predicted patch colonizations and persistence poorly, failing to adequately capture movement dynamics; BCRW and one FL_dm scenario predicted the observed patch colonization and persistence with reasonable probabilities. This one FL_dm scenario, however, had larger prediction intervals. BCRW, the biologically simplest and thus most parsimonious movement hypothesis, performed consistently well across all nine different tests, resulting in the highest quality metapopulation predictions for butterfly conservation.