Escape from floral herbivory by early flowering in Arabidopsis halleri subsp. gemmifera

Natural selection on flowering phenology has been studied primarily in terms of plant–pollinator interactions and effects of abiotic conditions. Little is known, however, about geographic variation in other biotic factors such as herbivores and its consequence for differential selection on flowering phenology among populations. Here, we examine selection by floral herbivores on the flowering phenology of Arabidopsis halleri subsp. gemmifera using two adjacent populations with contrasting herbivory regimes. Intensive floral herbivory by the leaf beetle Phaedon brassicae occurs in one population, while the beetle is absent in another population. We tested the hypothesis that the two populations experience differential selection on flowering time that is attributable to the presence or absence of floral herbivory. A two-year field study showed that early flowering was favoured in the population under intensive floral herbivory, whereas selection for early flowering was not found in one year in the population where floral herbivory was absent. Selection for early flowering disappeared when the abundance of floral herbivores was artificially decreased in a field experiment. Thus, the heterogeneous distribution of P. brassicae was a major agent for differential selection on flowering time. However, flowering time did not differ between the two populations when plants were grown in the laboratory. The lack of genetic differentiation in flowering time may be explained by ongoing gene flow or recent invasion of P. brassicae. This study illustrates that the role of floral herbivory in shaping geographic variation in selection on flowering phenology may be more important than previously thought.     

Phenotypic selection on flowering phenology and pollination efficiency traits between Primula populations with different pollinator assemblages

Floral traits have largely been attributed to phenotypic selection in plant–pollinator interactions. However, the strength of this link has rarely been ascertained with real pollinators. We conducted pollinator observations and estimated selection through female fitness on flowering phenology and floral traits between two Primula secundiflora populations. We quantified pollinator‐mediated selection by subtracting estimates of selection gradients of plants receiving supplemental hand pollination from those of plants receiving open pollination. There was net directional selection for an earlier flowering start date at populations where the dominant pollinators were syrphid flies, and flowering phenology was also subjected to stabilized quadratic selection. However, a later flowering start date was significantly selected at populations where the dominant pollinators were legitimate (normal pollination through the corolla tube entrance) and illegitimate bumblebees (abnormal pollination through nectar robbing hole which located at the corolla tube), and flowering phenology was subjected to disruptive quadratic selection. Wider corolla tube entrance diameter was selected at both populations. Furthermore, the strength of net directional selection on flowering start date and corolla tube entrance diameter was stronger at the population where the dominant pollinators were syrphid flies. Pollinator‐mediated selection explained most of the between‐population variations in the net directional selection on flowering phenology and corolla tube entrance diameter. Our results suggested the important influence of pollinator‐mediated selection on floral evolution. Variations in pollinator assemblages not only resulted in variation in the direction of selection but also the strength of selection on floral traits.     

Biotic predictors with phenological information improve range estimates for migrating monarch butterflies in Mexico

Although long-standing theory suggests that biotic variables are only relevant at local scales for explaining the patterns of species' distributions, recent studies have demonstrated improvements to species distribution models (SDMs) by incorporating predictor variables informed by biotic interactions. However, some key methodological questions remain, such as which kinds of interactions are permitted to include in these models, how to incorporate the effects of multiple interacting species, and how to account for interactions that may have a temporal dependence. We addressed these questions in an effort to model the distribution of the monarch butterfly Danaus plexippus during its fall migration (September–November) through Mexico, a region with new monitoring data and uncertain range limits even for this well-studied insect. We estimated species richness of selected nectar plants (Asclepias spp.) and roosting trees (various highland species) for use as biotic variables in our models. To account for flowering phenology, we additionally estimated nectar plant richness of flowering species per month. We evaluated three types of models: climatic variables only (abiotic), plant richness estimates only (biotic) and combined (abiotic and biotic). We selected models with AICc and additionally determined if they performed better than random on spatially withheld data. We found that the combined models accounting for phenology performed best for all three months, and better than random for discriminatory ability but not omission rate. These combined models also produced the most ecologically realistic spatial patterns, but the modeled response for nectar plant richness matched ecological predictions for November only. These results represent the first model-based monarch distributional estimates for the Mexican migration route and should provide foundations for future conservation work. More generally, the study demonstrates the potential benefits of using SDM-derived richness estimates and phenological information for biotic factors affecting species distributions.     

A Range-Expanding Shrub Species Alters Plant Phenological Response to Experimental Warming

Shifts in plant species phenology (the timing of life-history events such as flowering) have been observed worldwide in concert with rising global temperatures. While most species display earlier phenology with warming, there is large variation among, and even within, species in phenological sensitivity to rising temperatures. Other indirect effects of climate change, such as shifting species composition and altered species interactions, may also be contributing to shifting plant phenology. Here, we describe how experimental warming and the presence of a range-expanding species, sagebrush (Artemisia rothrockii), interact to influence the flowering phenology (day of first and peak flowering) and production (number of flowers) of an alpine cushion plant, Trifolium andersonii, in California’s White Mountains. Both first flowering and peak flowering were strongly accelerated by warming, but not when sagebrush was present. Warming significantly increased flower production of T. andersonii, but less so in the presence of sagebrush. A shading treatment delayed phenology and lowered flower production, suggesting that shading may be the mechanism by which sagebrush presence delayed flowering of the understory species. This study demonstrates that species interactions can modify phenological responses to climate change, and suggests that indirect effects of rising temperatures arising from shifting species ranges and altered species interactions may even exceed the direct effects of rising temperatures on phenology.     

Ecological and evolutionary consequences of spatial and temporal variation in pre-dispersal seed predation

Pre-dispersal seed predation may have important effects on population dynamics and trait evolution in plants. In this review, we first present a conceptual framework of the strength of pre-dispersal seed predation and its variation in space and time. We consider the interaction between plants and their seed predators to be “strong” when it affects plant population dynamics or causes changes in plant trait–fitness relationships, and “weak” when it has no such effects, and propose ways of how to adequately assess these effects. Second, we review the ecological literature between 1991 and 2005 to evaluate documented effects of pre-dispersal seed predation on plants and draw five major conclusions. (1) Pre-dispersal seed predation rates are usually low but sometimes high, and show a considerable variation in space and time. (2) Direct evidence suggests that pre-dispersal seed predation can have a significant effect on recruitment and plant population growth rate. Accumulating evidence of seed-limited recruitment suggests that such effects are common. (3) Pre-dispersal seed predation affects selection on several plant traits, such as flowering phenology and flower number, which are usually interpreted mainly in the context of plant–pollinator interactions. (4) The patterns of variation in the interactions between plants and pre-dispersal seed predators suggest that geographic selection mosaics may be common. (5) Although there are numerous studies estimating seed predation, there are still rather few studies that have aimed at examining the interaction explicitly in terms of effects on plant population dynamics and trait selection. From these we know that seed predators can have important, and often variable, effects on plant population dynamics and trait evolution. However, it still remains to assess how important they are across study systems and relative to other aspects of the plant's biotic and abiotic environment.     

Flowering phenology and reproduction of a forest understorey plant species in response to the local environment

Temperate forest understorey plants are subjected to a strong seasonality in their optimal growing conditions. In winter and early spring, low temperatures are suboptimal for plant growth while light becomes limited later in spring season. We can thus expect that differences in plant phenology in relation to spatiotemporal environmental variation will lead to differences in reproductive output, and hence selection. We specifically studied whether early flowering, a paradoxical pattern that is observed in many plant species, is an adaptive strategy, and whether selection for early flowering was confounded with selection for flower duration or was attributable to environmental variables. We used Geum urbanum as a study species to investigate the effect of relevant environmental factors on the species’ flowering phenology and the consequences for plant reproductive output. We monitored the phenology of four to six plants in each of ten locations in a temperate deciduous forest (Belgium). We first quantified variation in flowering time within individuals and related this temporal variation to individual flower reproductive output. Then, we studied inter-individual variation here-in and linked this to reproduction at the plant level, hence studying the selection differential. We found that flowering within individual plants of Geum urbanum was spread over a long period from June to October. Reproductive output of individual flowers, measured as total seed mass per flower, declined during the season. We found no indication for selection for early flowering but rather for longer flower duration. Larger plants had an earlier flowering onset and a higher seed mass, which suggests that these factors covary and are condition dependent. None of the studied environmental variables could explain plant size, although soil pH and to a lesser extent light availability had a positive direct effect on seed mass per plant. Finally, we suggest that the high intra-individual variation in flowering time, which might be a risk spreading strategy of the plant in the presence of seed predation, limits the potential for selection on flowering phenology.

     

Meta-analysis of phenotypic selection on flowering phenology suggests that early flowering plants are favoured

Flowering times of plants are important life-history components and it has previously been hypothesized that flowering phenologies may be currently subject to natural selection or be selectively neutral. In this study we reviewed the evidence for phenotypic selection acting on flowering phenology using ordinary and phylogenetic meta-analysis. Phenotypic selection exists when a phenotypic trait co-varies with fitness; therefore, we looked for studies reporting an association between two components of flowering phenology (flowering time or flowering synchrony) with fitness. Data sets comprising 87 and 18 plant species were then used to assess the incidence and strength of phenotypic selection on flowering time and flowering synchrony, respectively. The influence of dependence on pollinators, the duration of the reproductive event, latitude and plant longevity as moderators of selection were also explored. Our results suggest that selection favours early flowering plants, but the strength of selection is influenced by latitude, with selection being stronger in temperate environments. However, there is no consistent pattern of selection on flowering synchrony. Our study demonstrates that phenotypic selection on flowering time is consistent and relatively strong, in contrast to previous hypotheses of selective neutrality, and has implications for the evolution of temperate floras under global climate change.     

POLLINATOR-MEDIATED SELECTION ON FLORAL DISPLAY AND FLOWERING TIME IN THE PERENNIAL HERB ARABIDOPSIS LYRATA

The evolution of floral display and flowering time in animal-pollinated plants is commonly attributed to pollinator-mediated selection. Yet, the causes of selection on flowering phenology and traits contributing to floral display have rarely been tested experimentally in natural populations. We quantified phenotypic selection on morphological and phenological characters in the perennial, outcrossing herb Arabidopsis lyrata in two years using female reproductive success as a proxy of fitness. To determine whether selection on floral display and flowering phenology can be attributed to interactions with pollinators, selection was quantified both for open-pollinated controls and for plants receiving supplemental hand-pollination. We documented directional selection for many flowers, large petals, late start of flowering, and early end of flowering. Seed output was pollen-limited in both years and supplemental hand-pollination reduced the magnitude of selection on number of flowers, and reversed the direction of selection on end of flowering. The results demonstrate that interactions with pollinators may affect the strength of selection on floral display and the direction of selection on phenology of flowering in natural plant populations. They thus support the contention that pollinators can drive the evolution of both floral display and flowering time.     

Flowering phenology: An example of relaxation of natural selection?

Flowering phenology has normally been viewed as fundamental to a plant species' reproductive ecology. Researchers in the field have emphasized the adaptive importance of flowering at a particular time relative to other individuals in the population, or other species in the community. An alternative view, however, is that flowering phenology is a trait that may not be under strong selection, and this may have allowed some variation to appear in populations by chance.     

Selection on flowering time in Mediterranean high-mountain plants under global warming

Under climate warming, plants will undergo novel selective pressures to adjust reproductive timing. Adjustment between reproductive phenology and environment is expected to be higher in arctic and alpine habitats because the growing season is considerably short. As early- and late-flowering species reproduce under very different environmental conditions, selective pressures on flowering phenology and potential effects of climate change are likely to differ between them. However, there is no agreement on the magnitude of the benefits and costs of early- vs. late-flowering species under a global warming scenario. In spite of its relevance, phenotypic selection on flowering phenology has rarely been explored in alpine plants and never in Mediterranean high mountain species, where selective pressures are very different due to the summer drought imposed over the short growth season. We hypothesized that late-flowering plants in Mediterranean mountains should present stronger selective pressures towards early onset of reproduction than early-flowering species, because less water is available in the soil as growing season progresses. We performed selection analyses on flowering onset and duration in two high mountain species of contrasting phenology. Since phenotypic selection can be highly context-dependent, we studied several populations of each species for 2 years, covering their local altitudinal ranges and their different microhabitats. Surrogates of biotic selective agents, like fruitset for pollinators and flower and fruit loss for flower and seed predators, were included in the analysis. Differences between the early- and the late-flowering species were less than expected. A consistent negative correlational selection of flowering onset and duration was found affecting plant fitness, i.e., plants that bloomed earlier flowered for longer periods improving plant fitness. Nevertheless, the late-flowering species may experience higher risks under climate warming because in extremely warm and dry years the earlier season does not bring about a longer flowering duration due to summer drought.     

Increased variance in temperature and lag effects alter phenological responses to rapid warming in a subarctic plant community

Summer temperature on the Cape Churchill Peninsula (Manitoba, Canada) has increased rapidly over the past 75 years, and flowering phenology of the plant community is advanced in years with warmer temperatures (higher cumulative growing degree days). Despite this, there has been no overall shift in flowering phenology over this period. However, climate change has also resulted in increased interannual variation in temperature; if relationships between phenology and temperature are not linear, an increase in temperature variance may interact with an increase in the mean to alter how community phenology changes over time. In our system, the relationship between phenology and temperature was log‐linear, resulting in a steeper slope at the cold end of the temperature spectrum than at the warm end. Because below‐average temperatures had a greater impact on phenology than above‐average temperatures, the long‐term advance in phenology was reduced. In addition, flowering phenology in a given year was delayed if summer temperatures were high the previous year or 2 years earlier (lag effects), further reducing the expected advance over time. Phenology of early‐flowering plants was negatively affected only by temperatures in the previous year, and that of late‐flowering plants primarily by temperatures 2 years earlier. Subarctic plants develop leaf primordia one or more years prior to flowering (preformation); these results suggest that temperature affects the development of flower primordia during this preformation period. Together, increased variance in temperature and lag effects interacted with a changing mean to reduce the expected phenological advance by 94%, a magnitude large enough to account for our inability to detect a significant advance over time. We conclude that changes in temperature variability and lag effects can alter trends in plant responses to a warming climate and that predictions for changes in plant phenology under future warming scenarios should incorporate such effects.     

A natural heating experiment: Phenotypic and genotypic responses of plant phenology to geothermal soil warming

Under global warming, the survival of many populations of sedentary organisms in seasonal environments will largely depend on their ability to cope with warming in situ by means of phenotypic plasticity or adaptive evolution. This is particularly true in high‐latitude environments, where current growing seasons are short, and expected temperature increases large. In such short‐growing season environments, the timing of growth and reproduction is critical to survival. Here, we use the unique setting provided by a natural geothermal soil warming gradient (Hengill geothermal area, Iceland) to study the response of Cerastium fontanum flowering phenology to temperature. We hypothesized that trait expression and phenotypic selection on flowering phenology are related to soil temperature, and tested the hypothesis that temperature‐driven differences in selection on phenology have resulted in genetic differentiation using a common garden experiment. In the field, phenology was related to soil temperature, with plants in warmer microsites flowering earlier than plants at colder microsites. In the common garden, plants responded to spring warming in a counter‐gradient fashion; plants originating from warmer microsites flowered relatively later than those originating from colder microsites. A likely explanation for this pattern is that plants from colder microsites have been selected to compensate for the shorter growing season by starting development at lower temperatures. However, in our study we did not find evidence of variation in phenotypic selection on phenology in relation to temperature, but selection consistently favoured early flowering. Our results show that soil temperature influences trait expression and suggest the existence of genetically based variation in flowering phenology leading to counter‐gradient local adaptation along a gradient of soil temperatures. An important implication of our results is that observed phenotypic responses of phenology to global warming might often be a combination of short‐term plastic responses and long‐term evolutionary responses, acting in different directions.     

Variation in vegetative and flowering phenology in a forest herb caused by environmental heterogeneity

Timing of seasonal plant development can affect biotic interactions and plant fitness. Phenology is governed largely by temperature and may therefore be affected by global climate warming, making this an important area of research. Several factors in addition to temperature may cause differences in phenology. We studied the influence of local environment, plant size, and reproductive effort on shoot emergence and flowering time of 290 individuals of Actaea spicata (Ranunculaceae), distributed among 25 plots in four populations. We used multiple regression and structural equation models (SEM) to study causal relationships. Among plots, soil temperature and canopy cover explained 63% of the variation in shoot emergence. Soil temperature, slope, and canopy cover together explained 83% of the variation in flowering time. Within plots, small plants on steep south-facing slopes with high soil potassium concentrations emerged earlier in the year. Plants emerging earlier flowered earlier, but no environmental factors affected flowering time directly. We found no effects of reproductive effort. Our results support the view that flowering time of temperate forest herbs is constrained by several environmental factors acting indirectly through effects on shoot emergence time.     

Phenotypic selection on flowering phenology and size in two dioecious plant species with different pollen vectors

Dioecious plants may be pollinated biotically by animals or abiotically via wind or water currents. It has been hypothesized that these two types of pollen vectors might impose contrasting selective pressures on plant flowering phenology. In the present study we describe the flowering phenology of two sympatric dioecious species with contrasting pollination modes: Mercurialis perennis (wind‐pollinated) and Tamus communis (insect‐pollinated). We estimated selection differentials and gradients for flowering time and flowering synchrony. As flowering time might depend on the accumulation of enough internal resources, we also estimated direct and indirect selection on plant size. Both species have male‐biased sexual ratios, and males are bigger and produce larger flower displays than females, but only in T. communis do males bloom earlier and for longer than females. Selection gradients suggest that selection tends to favor early‐flowering females of T. communis. There is no evidence of direct current selection on the flowering phenology of M. perennis. Intersexual differences in phenology fit with sex allocation and sexual selection theories. As we hypothesized, phenology of the animal‐pollinated species is under stronger selection than that of the wind‐pollinated species and we discuss the potential role of pollen vectors in shaping the flowering phenologies of the study species.     

The flowering pattern of the perennial herb Lobularia maritima: an unusual case in the Mediterranean basin

In plant communities of the Mediterranean Basin most plant species reach their blooming peak in spring and have characteristically short flowering periods of two-three months. The perennial herb Lobularia maritima represents an exception to these characteristics, because it flowers for almost 10 months, and has its flowering peak in autumn. In this five-year study, we describe the flowering pattern of L. maritima at the population and community levels. Despite the unusually extended flowering period of L. maritima, the species showed characteristic low among-year variability in the length of the flowering period but large interannual variation in the distribution of flowers throughout the flowering period. The flowering pattern (unimodal or bimodal) of L. maritima individuals differed among the five years, suggesting that L. maritima plants are plastic enough to tailor their flowering to variable environmental conditions. We conclude that flowering phenology of L. maritima represents a very particular case in the plant community studied, and the influence of abiotic and biotic factors on the phenology of this species is discussed.     

PAIRWISE VERSUS DIFFUSE NATURAL SELECTION AND THE MULTIPLE HERBIVORES OF SCARLET GILIA,IPOMOPSIS AGGREGATA

Recent theoretical studies have argued that plant-herbivore coevolution proceeds in a diffuse rather than a pairwise manner in multispecies interactions when at least one of two conditions are met: (1) genetic correlations exist between plant resistances to different herbivore species; and (2) ecological interactions between herbivores sharing a host plant cause nonadditive impacts of herbivory on plant fitness. We present results from manipulative field experiments investigating the single and interactive fitness effects of three types of herbivory on scarlet gilia (Ipomopsis aggregata) over two years of study. We utilize these data to test whether selection imposed by herbivore attack on date of first flowering is pairwise (independent) or diffuse (dependent) in nature. Our results reveal complex patterns of the fitness effect of herbivores. Simulated early season browsing had a strong negative fitness effect on plants and also reduced subsequent insect attack. Surprisingly, this ecological interaction did not translate into significant interactions between clipping and insect manipulations on plant fitness. However, we detected a significant interaction between seed fly and caterpillar herbivory on plant fitness, with the negative effect of either insect being greatest when occurring alone. These results suggest that herbivore-imposed selection may have pairwise and diffuse components. In our selection analysis of flowering phenology, we discovered significant pairwise linear selection imposed by clipping, diffuse linear selection imposed by insects, and diffuse nonlinear selection imposed by clipping and insect attack acting simultaneously. Our results reveal that the evolution of flowering phenology in scarlet gilia may be in response to diffuse and pairwise natural selection imposed by multiple herbivores. We discuss the evolution of resistance characters in light of diffuse versus pairwise forms of linear and nonlinear selection and stress the complexity of selection imposed by suites of interacting species.     

Phenological diversity in tropical forests

One of the most intriguing and complex characteristics of reproductive phenology in tropical forests is high diversity within and among forests. To understand such diversity, Newstrom et al. provided a systematic framework for the classification of tropical flowering phenology. They adopted frequency and regularity as criteria with priority, and classified plants in La Selva, Costa Rica, where most plants reproduced more than once a year irregularly. Many other studies have demonstrated annual cycles corresponding to rainfall patterns at the community level in Neotropical forests, including La Selva. On the other hand, supraannual flowering synchronized among various plant species, called general flowering, is known from aseasonal lowland dipterocarp forests in Southeast Asia. Within both forests, a wide spectrum of flowering patterns is found. This range of patterns suggests the great potential of tropical phenological studies to explore the selective pressures on phenology. Various abiotic and biotic factors can be selective agents. The shared pollinators hypothesis suggests that plant species sharing pollinators segregate flowering temporarily to minimize interspecific overlap in flowering times and thus minimize ineffective pollination or competition for pollinators, indicating strong phylogenetic constraints in timing and variation of flowering. Comparison of phenology within and among forests may help our understanding of phenological diversity. Attempts are now being made to develop a common language to communicate concepts and render interpretations of data more compatible among investigators and to create a network to promote comparative studies. Received: September 8, 2000 / Accepted: January 30, 2001     

Putative biotic drivers of plant phenology: With special reference to pathogens and deciduousness

Plant phenology is not only manifested in the seasonal timing of vegetative and reproductive processes but also has ontogenetic aspects. The adaptive basis of seasonal phenology has been considered mainly in terms of climatic drivers. However, some biotic factors as likely evolutionary influences on plants’ phenology appear to have been under‐researched. Several specific cases of putative biotic factors driving plant phenology are outlined, involving both herbivores and pathogens. These illustrate the diversity of likely interactions rather than any systematic coverage or review. Emphasis is on woody perennials, in which phenology is often most multifaceted and complicated by the ontogenetic aspect. The complete seasonal leaf fall that characterizes deciduous plants may be a very important defense against some pathogens. Whether biotic influences drive acquisition or long‐term persistence of deciduousness is considered. In one case, of leaf rusts in poplars, countervailing influences of the rusts and climate suggest persistence. Often, however, biotic and environmental influences likely reinforce each other. The timing and duration of shoot flushing may in at least some cases contribute to defenses against herbivores, largely through brief periods of “predator satiation” when plant tissues have highest food value. Wide re‐examination of plant phenology, accommodating the roles of biotic factors and their interplays with environments as additional adaptive drivers, is advocated toward developing and applying hypotheses that are observationally or experimentally testable.     

Herbivory and natural selection on flowering phenology in wild sunflower, Helianthus annuus

Plant fitness is strongly affected by flowering phenology, and there are several ecological factors that are thought to shape the distribution of flowering times. One relatively underexamined factor is the timing and intensity of attack by herbivores that feed on flowers or developing seeds. This study tests the hypothesis that herbivores that feed on developing seeds of wild sunflower, Helianthus annuus (Asteraceae), impose selection on flowering phenology. First, the study population was found to contain genetic variation for mean date of flowering, so this trait could evolve if natural selection were operating. Next, the phenological pattern of abundance of five seed-feeding herbivores was documented. Damage by three herbivores, Haplorhynchites aeneus (Cucurlionidae), the head-clipping weevil, Homoeosoma electellum (Lepidoptera: Pyralidae), the sunflower moth, and Suleima helianthana (Lepidoptera: Tortricidae), the sunflower bud moth, was highest early in the flowering season, and declined as the season progressed. Damage by one herbivore, the seed fly Gymnocarena diffusa (Diptera: Tephrididae), was lowest early in the flowering season and increased as the season progressed. Finally, damage by two seed weevils, Smicronyx fulvus and S. sordidus (Curculionidae), whose damage was not distinguished, was constant through the flowering period. Third, damage by Haplorhynchites, Homoeosoma, and Suleima was found to be detrimental to plant fitness, suggesting that plants that flower when these herbivores are not abundant should have higher fitness. Finally, two phenotypic selection analyses were performed. The first included damage by Homoeosoma and Suleima, as well as flowering date, leaf area, and inflorescence diameter, as characters predicting plant fitness. In this analysis directional selection was found to act to decrease damage by the two herbivores, but did not act on flowering date. The second selection analysis was identical except that damage by the two herbivores was not included. In this analysis significant directional selection was found to favor later-flowering plants. Comparison of these two analyses suggests that all selection on flowering phenology is attributable to damage by Homoeosoma and Suleima: plants that flower later avoid damage by these two herbivores. While other influences on flowering phenology, such as pollination, mate availability, and seasonality, have been well documented, this study is one of few to demonstrate natural selection on flowering phenology that is a direct consequence of insect attack. Received: 17 November 1998 / Accepted: 18 July 1999     

Genetic and physiological bases for phenological responses to current and predicted climates

We are now reaching the stage at which specific genetic factors with known physiological effects can be tied directly and quantitatively to variation in phenology. With such a mechanistic understanding, scientists can better predict phenological responses to novel seasonal climates. Using the widespread model species Arabidopsis thaliana, we explore how variation in different genetic pathways can be linked to phenology and life-history variation across geographical regions and seasons. We show that the expression of phenological traits including flowering depends critically on the growth season, and we outline an integrated life-history approach to phenology in which the timing of later life-history events can be contingent on the environmental cues regulating earlier life stages. As flowering time in many plants is determined by the integration of multiple environmentally sensitive gene pathways, the novel combinations of important seasonal cues in projected future climates will alter how phenology responds to variation in the flowering time gene network with important consequences for plant life history. We discuss how phenology models in other systems—both natural and agricultural—could employ a similar framework to explore the potential contribution of genetic variation to the physiological integration of cues determining phenology.