Decades of dietary data demonstrate regional food web structures in the Southern Ocean

Understanding regional‐scale food web structure in the Southern Ocean is critical to informing fisheries management and assessments of climate change impacts on Southern Ocean ecosystems and ecosystem services. Historically, a large component of Southern Ocean ecosystem research has focused on Antarctic krill, which provide a short, highly efficient food chain, linking primary producers to higher trophic levels. Over the last 15 years, the presence of alternative energy pathways has been identified and hypotheses on their relative importance in different regions raised. Using the largest circumpolar dietary database ever compiled, we tested these hypotheses using an empirical circumpolar comparison of food webs across the four major regions/sectors of the Southern Ocean (defined as south of 40°S) within the austral summer period. We used network analyses and generalizations of taxonomic food web structure to confirm that while Antarctic krill are dominant as the mid‐trophic level for the Atlantic and East Pacific food webs (including the Scotia Arc and Western Antarctic Peninsula), mesopelagic fish and other krill species are dominant contributors to predator diets in the Indian and West Pacific regions (East Antarctica and the Ross Sea). We also highlight how tracking data and habitat modeling for mobile top predators in the Southern Ocean show that these species integrate food webs over large regional scales. Our study provides a quantitative assessment, based on field observations, of the degree of regional differentiation in Southern Ocean food webs and the relative importance of alternative energy pathways between regions.     

Population momentum and the demand on land and water resources

Future world population growth is fuelled by two components: the demographic momentum, which is built into the age composition of current populations, and changes in reproductive behaviour and mortality of generations yet to come. This paper investigates, by major world regions and countries, what we know about population growth, what can be projected with reasonable certainty, and what is pure speculation. The exposition sets a frame for analysing demographic driving forces that are expected to increase human demand and pressures on land and water resources. These have been contrasted with current resource assessments of regional availability and use of land, in particular with estimates of remaining land with cultivation potential. In establishing a balance between availabilty of land resources and projected needs, the paper distinguishes regions with limited land and water resources and high population pressure from areas with abundant resources and low or moderate demographic demand. Overall, it is estimated that two-thirds of the remaining balance of land with rainfed cultivation potential is currently covered by various forest ecosystems and wetlands. The respective percentages by region vary between 23% in Southern Africa to 89% in South-Eastern Asia. For Latin America and Asia the estimated share of the balance of land with cultivation potential under forest and wetland ecosystems is about 70%, in Africa this is about 60%. If these were to be preserved, the remaining balance of land with some potential for rainfed crop cultivation would amount to some 550 million hectares. The regions which will experience the largest difficulties in meeting future demand for land resources and water, or alternatively have to cope with much increased dependency on external supplies, include foremost Western Asia, South-Central Asia, and Northern Africa. A large stress on resources is to be expected also in many countries of Eastern, Western and Southern Africa <br>     

Climate Change and Its Adverse Impacts on Plant Growth in South Asia: Current Status and Upcoming Challenges

Socioeconomic development, adaptive capacity of the population, and demographic conditions across the states of South Asia make it more vulnerable to climate change. South Asia is daily going to be more vulnerable to climate change and climatic variability. This region is facing multiple challenges in terms of climate change, dilapidation of ecosystems, and food insecurity. Climate is the primary determining factor for agricultural output, which unswervingly influences food production across the globe. South Asia is mainly an agricultural foundation based region and thus the economy of these regions directly depends on agriculture and agricultural production. Due to the extensive dependence on natural assets for thriving, it makes the people of this region more vulnerable to climate change. This region is now under serious risk from sea-level rising and growing incidences of extreme events such as flash floods, enhanced temperature, drought, salinity, cyclones, storms, landslides, and irregularity of precipitation. These abiotic stresses continuously disturb plant growth and productivity. It is now the time to take urgent action on these issues towards a sustainable, inclusive and resource efficient way to overcome this. In this review, we summarize the overall situation of climate change in the South Asian countries and their adverse consequences on plants, and upcoming challenges towards a sustainable production.     

亚洲季风区铁杉属现代分布区及其气候特征

铁杉属在亚洲主要分布于亚洲季风区东部,间断分布于中国大陆、台湾岛以及日本列岛（除北海道）。在中国大陆间断分布在西南山区（横断山区和部分东喜马拉雅）、中部山区（秦岭-大巴山区）和东南山区（华东山地）。亚洲季风区铁杉属的现代分布环境要求年降水量范围为720～2103mm,生长季降水量为635～1489mm;年均温范围为5．8～18．2℃,冬季月均温为-2．7～11．5℃,年最冷月均温为-3．7-10．9℃,年最暖月均温为13．0—28．2℃,气温年较差为9．7～25．4℃。亚洲季风区铁杉属的现代地理分布与气候要素值相互关系的分析表明,无铁杉分布的朝鲜半岛及其邻近的我国东北山地和山东山地降水量均大于700mm,基本上能够满足铁杉属生长的水分条件;而朝鲜半岛及其邻近的我国东北山地和山东山地的气温年较差明显大于铁杉属分布区的值,同时两地的冬季月均温和年最冷月均温明显低于铁杉属分布区的值,这也是这些地区没有铁杉属分布的主要气候原因。总之,这些亚洲季风区水分条件能够满足铁杉属生长需要,但冬季温度（包括冬季月平均温度和年最冷月均温）和气温年较差无法满足铁杉属生长需要,导致这些地区无铁杉属现代分布记录。     

松墨天牛的全球潜在分布区分析

松墨天牛MonochamusalternatusHope分布在亚洲东部,是松材线虫Bursaphelenchusxylophilus(SteinerandBuhrer)在亚洲最有效的昆虫媒介,同时也是重要的蛀干害虫。利用CLIMEX模型分析松墨天牛分布区的气候限制因子,并在全球范围预测它的潜在分布区。模型分析结果表明,温度和降水是松墨天牛分布区的主要气候限制因子。温度在30°N以北地区和30°S以南地区主要表现为冷胁迫,在非洲中部、南亚和澳大利亚北部表现为热胁迫。有效积温不足可能是限制松墨天牛向北扩散的主要原因。降水在中国西北地区、非洲中北部、澳大利亚中部和西部与美国西部主要表现为干胁迫。降水量对分布区范围影响不大。预测结果表明,松墨天牛的全球潜在分布区远远大于实际分布范围。松墨天牛在东半球的潜在分布区包括亚洲东部和南部地区、地中海沿岸、非洲的中部和南部以及澳大利亚的东部和南部,在亚洲热带的潜在分布区1年3代,地中海地区1年1代,非洲1年2～3代,在澳大利亚主要1年1代。松墨天牛在西半球的潜在分布区主要集中在美国南部和东部沿海地区,中美洲以及南美洲的广大地区,美国主要1年1代,中美洲1年2～3代,南美洲主要1年2代。     

The complex evolutionary history of apricots: Species divergence,gene flow and multiple domestication events

Domestication is an excellent model to study diversification and this evolutionary process can be different in perennial plants, such as fruit trees, compared to annual crops. Here, we inferred the history of wild apricot species divergence and of apricot domestication history across Eurasia, with a special focus on Central and Eastern Asia, based on microsatellite markers and approximate Bayesian computation. We significantly extended our previous sampling of apricots in Europe and Central Asia towards Eastern Asia, resulting in a total sample of 271 cultivated samples and 306 wild apricots across Eurasia, mainly Prunus armeniaca and Prunus sibirica, with some Prunus mume and Prunus mandshurica. We recovered wild Chinese species as genetically differentiated clusters, with P. sibirica being divided into two clusters, one possibly resulting from hybridization with P. armeniaca. Central Asia also appeared as a diversification centre of wild apricots. We further revealed at least three domestication events, without bottlenecks, that gave rise to European, Southern Central Asian and Chinese cultivated apricots, with ancient gene flow among them. The domestication event in China possibly resulted from ancient hybridization between wild populations from Central and Eastern Asia. We also detected extensive footprints of recent admixture in all groups of cultivated apricots. Our results thus show that apricot is an excellent model for studying speciation and domestication in long‐lived perennial fruit trees.     

紫荆属的系统发育和生物地理学研究

紫荆属（Cercis L.）约含8种,间断分布于亚洲东、西部、欧洲南部和北美。应用核糖体DNA的ITS基因序列研究紫荆属的系统发育关系。在最简约性分析,北美的两个种和南欧、西亚的一个种构成一单系群而隐藏于东亚的种类中。这表明紫荆属北美的种类和南欧、西亚的种类之间的关系比它们的各自与东亚的种类的关系要密切。研究还发现北美洲东、西部的种类可能具较近亲缘。紫荆属以白令陆桥或北大西洋陆桥为迁移途径的可能性似乎都不能排除;北半球的生物地理分布式样可具有复杂的起源。     

Sensitivity of primary production to precipitation across the United States

Primary production, a key regulator of the global carbon cycle, is highly responsive to variations in climate. Yet, a detailed, continental‐scale risk assessment of climate‐related impacts on primary production is lacking. We combined 16 years of MODIS NDVI data, a remotely sensed proxy for primary production, with observations from 1218 climate stations to derive values of ecosystem sensitivity to precipitation and aridity. For the first time, we produced an empirically‐derived map of ecosystem sensitivity to climate across the conterminous United States. Over this 16‐year period, annual primary production values were most sensitive to precipitation and aridity in dryland and grassland ecosystems. Century‐long trends measured at the climate stations showed intensifying aridity and climatic variability in many of these sensitive regions. Dryland ecosystems in the western US may be particularly vulnerable to reductions in primary production and consequent degradation of ecosystem services as climate change and variability increase in the future.     

Regional climate on the breeding grounds predicts variation in the natal origin of monarch butterflies overwintering in Mexico over 38 years

Addressing population declines of migratory insects requires linking populations across different portions of the annual cycle and understanding the effects of variation in weather and climate on productivity, recruitment, and patterns of long‐distance movement. We used stable H and C isotopes and geospatial modeling to estimate the natal origin of monarch butterflies (Danaus plexippus) in eastern North America using over 1000 monarchs collected over almost four decades at Mexican overwintering colonies. Multinomial regression was used to ascertain which climate‐related factors best‐predicted temporal variation in natal origin across six breeding regions. The region producing the largest proportion of overwintering monarchs was the US Midwest (mean annual proportion = 0.38; 95% CI: 0.36–0.41) followed by the north‐central (0.17; 0.14–0.18), northeast (0.15; 0.11–0.16), northwest (0.12; 0.12–0.16), southwest (0.11; 0.08–0.12), and southeast (0.08; 0.07–0.11) regions. There was no evidence of directional shifts in the relative contributions of different natal regions over time, which suggests these regions are comprising the same relative proportion of the overwintering population in recent years as in the mid‐1970s. Instead, interannual variation in the proportion of monarchs from each region covaried with climate, as measured by the Southern Oscillation Index and regional‐specific daily maximum temperature and precipitation, which together likely dictate larval development rates and food plant condition. Our results provide the first robust long‐term analysis of predictors of the natal origins of monarchs overwintering in Mexico. Conservation efforts on the breeding grounds focused on the Midwest region will likely have the greatest benefit to eastern North American migratory monarchs, but the population will likely remain sensitive to regional and stochastic weather patterns.     

Environmental filters shaping angiosperm tree assembly along climatic and geographic gradients

Question

Global‐scale forest censuses provide an opportunity to understand diversification processes in woody plant communities. Based on the climatic or geographic filtering hypotheses associated with tropical niche conservatism and dispersal limitation, we analysed phylogenetic community structures across a wide range of biomes and evaluated to what extent region‐specific processes have influenced large‐scale diversity patterns of tree species communities across latitude or continent.

Location

Global.

Methods

We generated a data set of species abundances for 21,379 angiosperm woody plants in 843 plots worldwide. We calculated net relatedness index (NRI) for each plot, based on a single global species pool and regional species pools, and phylogenetic β‐diversity (PBD) between plots. Then, we explored the correlations of NRI with climatic and geographic variables, and clarified phylogenetic dissimilarity along geographic and climatic differences. We also compared these patterns for South America, Africa, the Indo‐Pacific, Australia, the Nearctic, Western Palearctic and Eastern Palearctic.

Results

NRI based on a global‐scale species pool was negatively associated with precipitation and positively associated with Quaternary temperature change. PBD was positively associated with geographic distance and precipitation difference between plots across tropical and extratropical biomes. Moreover, phylogenetic dissimilarity was smaller in extratropical regions than in regions including the tropics, although temperate forests of the Eastern Palearctic showed a greater dissimilarity within extratropical regions.

Conclusions

Our findings support predictions of the climatic and geographic filtering hypotheses. Climatic filtering (climatic harshness and paleoclimatic change) relative to tropical niche conservatism played a role in sorting species from the global species pool and shaped the large‐scale diversity patterns, such as the latitudinal gradient observed across continents. Geographic filtering associated with dispersal limitation substantially contributed to regional divergence of tropical/extratropical biomes among continents. Old, long‐standing geographic barriers and recent climatic events differently influenced evolutionary diversification of angiosperm tree communities in tropical and extratropical biomes.     

Impacts of climate change on national biodiversity population trends

Climate change has had well‐documented impacts on the distribution and phenology of species across many taxa, but impacts on species’ abundance, which relates closely to extinction risk and ecosystem function, have not been assessed across taxa. In the most comprehensive multi‐taxa comparison to date, we modelled variation in national population indices of 501 mammal, bird, aphid, butterfly and moth species as a function of annual variation in weather variables, which through time allowed us to identify a component of species’ population growth that can be associated with post‐1970s climate trends. We found evidence that these climate trends have significantly affected population trends of 15.8% of species, including eight with extreme (> 30% decline per decade) negative trends consistent with detrimental impacts of climate change. The modelled effect of climate change could explain 48% of the significant across‐species population decline in moths and 63% of the population increase in winged aphids. The other taxa did not have significant across‐species population trends or consistent climate change responses. Population declines in species of conservation concern were linked to both climatic and non‐climatic factors respectively accounting for 42 and 58% of the decline. Evident differential impacts of climate change between trophic levels may signal the potential for future ecosystem disruption. Climate change has therefore already driven large‐scale population changes of some species, had significant impacts on the overall abundance of some key invertebrate groups and may already have altered biological communities and ecosystems in Great Britain.     

Influence of climate variability on plant production and N‐mineralization in Central US grasslands

Abstract. We assessed the influence of annual and seasonal climate variability over soil organic matter (SOM), above‐ground net primary production (ANPP) and in situ net nitrogen (N) mineralization in a regional field study across the International Geosphere Biosphere Programme (IGBP) North American mid‐latitude transect (Koch et al. 1995). We hypothesized that while trends in SOM are strongly correlated with mean climatic parameters, ANPP and net N‐mineralization are more strongly influenced by annual and seasonal climate because they are dynamic processes sensitive to short‐term variation in temperature and water availability. Seasonal and monthly deviations from long‐term climatic means, particularly precipitation, were greatest at the semi‐arid end of the transect. ANPP is sensitive to this climatic variability, but is also strongly correlated with mean annual climate parameters. In situ net N‐mineralization and nitrification were weakly influenced by soil water content and temperature during the incubation and were less sensitive to seasonal climatic variables than ANPP, probably because microbial transformations of N in the soil are mediated over even finer temporal scales. We found no relationship between ANPP and in situ net N‐mineralization. These results suggests that methods used to estimate in situ net N‐mineralization are inadequate to represent N‐availability across gradients where microbial biomass, N‐immobilization or competition among plants and microbes vary.     

Remote sensing-derived land surface temperature trends over South Asia

Spatiotemporal changes in land surface temperature (LST) over South Asia were estimated using MODIS (moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer) data from 2000 to 2021. We calculated the monthly and annual LST trends and magnitudes by applying the Mann–Kendall test and Sen's slope estimator at both ecoregion and pixel level. More ecoregions experienced daytime cooling than warming. Central and west South Asia showed the highest daytime cooling in December compared to the nighttime warming in the central and northwest in July and September. Nineteen ecoregions demonstrated monthly daytime cooling trends at the 99% confidence level (CL), with the highest record observed in ecoregion ‘Indus Valley desert’ in March with the magnitudes of −0.26 °C/yr. While the monthly and annual nighttime warming magnitude was the maximum in ‘Gissaro-Alai open woodlands’ in December (0.19 °C/yr at 95% CL), and ‘Indus River Delta-Arabian Sea mangroves’ at annual scale (0.06 °C/yr at 99% CL). To understand the influence of large-scale atmospheric oscillations on the trends, we also correlated the estimated LST trends with the selected oscillation indices. Sea surface temperature (SST) Niño 3.4 showed the most significant influence on the trends, where it was positively correlated with 38 ecoregions during nighttime over the year. A better understanding of temperature trends and impacts on South Asia would guide sustainable development and ensures the excessive demands on food, water, and energy supplies coping with the growing population.     

甘肃地产党参区域性品质差异及气候响应特征分析

基于甘肃产区党参(Codonopsis pilosula(Franch.)Nannf.)中4种代表性组分(党参炔苷、苍术内酯Ⅲ、多糖和醇溶性浸出物)的含量变化与相应地域气候因子的分析, 探明甘肃境内区域条件、气候因子对党参化学成分的影响及关联性.运用高效液相色谱法测定党参中这4种化学成分含量, 分析区域性、年-季-月不...     

中国南方干旱灾害风险特征及其防控对策

应用中国南方区域14省区市252个国家基本气象站1961—2015年逐日地面气象观测资料及干旱灾害资料,研究中国南方干旱灾害影响的时空变化特征,分析中国南方干旱灾害风险变化特征,提出干旱灾害风险防控策略与防御对策。结果表明:近55年中国南方区域降水量呈现波动变化,降水量线性拟合趋势特征不明显。但进入21世纪后南方区域平均降水量明显偏少,且平均降水量年际振荡幅度增大。近55年研究区气温呈显著上升趋势,南方平均地表气温升高速率高于全球地表升温速率;研究区气温从1976年开始持续上升,气温升高的突变年在1997年。重旱风险高发区主要集中于西南,随着气候变暖,干旱灾害频率、强度和受旱面积均增加,干旱灾害风险增大。气温突变后次高干旱灾害风险区明显扩大。未来10年(2016—2025年)中国南方地区的干旱发生频率可能升高。因此,要加强干旱灾害风险管理,生态环境脆弱区域实施生态环境修复,农业主产区域以保障粮食安全为主,解决水资源时空分布不均和资源供需加剧矛盾,提高干旱灾害风险防控水平。     

Evaluation of global warming impacts on the carbon budget of terrestrial ecosystems in monsoon Asia: a multi-model analysis

This study assesses the potential impacts of future global warming on the carbon budget of terrestrial ecosystems across monsoon Asia using the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) dataset. We used simulation results of two emission pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP8.5), climate projections of five climate models, and seven terrestrial biome models to analyze the changes in net primary production and carbon stocks in the South, Southeast, and East Asian subregions during the period 1981–2099. The simulations indicated that by the end of the 21st century, net primary production would increase by 9–45 % and ecosystem carbon storage would increase by 42–86 Pg C. The clearest climatic impacts were found when using the adaptation-oriented emission scenario (RCP8.5), which assumes a greater CO₂ increase and a larger change in climatic conditions. Substantial disparities in temporal trajectories and spatial patterns were found in the estimated changes, owing to the uncertainties in the emission scenarios, climate projections, and ecosystem models. We attempted to derive consistent patterns throughout the simulations to specify potential hotspots of climatic impacts (e.g., soil carbon change in the southern Tibetan Plateau). Finally, we discuss changes to the climatic characteristics in the study region (e.g., a change in the rainy season), the implications for ecosystem services, and the need for collaborative field monitoring studies.     

气候舒适度在不同海拔的时空变化特征及其影响因素

气候舒适度是在气候变化背景下评估热量变化的方式之一.本研究基于1984-2013年间贵州省84个气象台站的逐日观测数据,采用通用热气候指数(UTCI)讨论不同海拔的气候舒适度时空变化规律及主要影响因子,定量分析了不同海拔地区各气候因子对UTCI的影响差异.结果表明: 1984-2013年间,贵州省多年平均UTCI与气温在空间分布格局上有很强的一致性,均表现为温度随海拔升高而降低,全省大部分地区年舒适天数在180～240 d之间;贵州省各站点UTCI增幅随海拔升高而增大,且UTCI变化幅度[-0.58～1.38 ℃·(10 a)^-1]高于气温变化幅度[-0.36～0.45 ℃·(10 a)^-1];在全省范围内,UTCI与各气候因子的相关关系由大至小依次为气温、风速、气压、相对湿度和云量,相关系数分别为0.899、-0.855、0.818、-0.373和-0.042;在不同海拔地区,不同因子与UTCI的相关系数变化有很大的不一致性.随海拔升高,UTCI受气温影响逐渐减弱,风速的影响程度增大.     

Gene Flow between the Korean Peninsula and Its Neighboring Countries

SNP markers provide the primary data for population structure analysis. In this study, we employed whole-genome autosomal SNPs as a marker set (54,836 SNP markers) and tested their possible effects on genetic ancestry using 320 subjects covering 24 regional groups including Northern ( = 16) and Southern ( = 3) Asians, Amerindians ( = 1), and four HapMap populations (YRI, CEU, JPT, and CHB). Additionally, we evaluated the effectiveness and robustness of 50K autosomal SNPs with various clustering methods, along with their dependencies on recombination hotspots (RH), linkage disequilibrium (LD), missing calls and regional specific markers. The RH- and LD-free multi-dimensional scaling (MDS) method showed a broad picture of human migration from Africa to North-East Asia on our genome map, supporting results from previous haploid DNA studies. Of the Asian groups, the East Asian group showed greater differentiation than the Northern and Southern Asian groups with respect to Fst statistics. By extension, the analysis of monomorphic markers implied that nine out of ten historical regions in South Korea, and Tokyo in Japan, showed signs of genetic drift caused by the later settlement of East Asia (South Korea, Japan and China), while Gyeongju in South East Korea showed signs of the earliest settlement in East Asia. In the genome map, the gene flow to the Korean Peninsula from its neighboring countries indicated that some genetic signals from Northern populations such as the Siberians and Mongolians still remain in the South East and West regions, while few signals remain from the early Southern lineages.     

Plasticity in Dendroclimatic Response across the Distribution Range of Aleppo Pine (Pinus halepensis)

We investigated the variability of the climate-growth relationship of Aleppo pine across its distribution range in the Mediterranean Basin. We constructed a network of tree-ring index chronologies from 63 sites across the region. Correlation function analysis identified the relationships of tree-ring index to climate factors for each site. We also estimated the dominant climatic gradients of the region using principal component analysis of monthly, seasonal, and annual mean temperature and total precipitation from 1,068 climatic gridpoints. Variation in ring width index was primarily related to precipitation and secondarily to temperature. However, we found that the dendroclimatic relationship depended on the position of the site along the climatic gradient. In the southern part of the distribution range, where temperature was generally higher and precipitation lower than the regional average, reduced growth was also associated with warm and dry conditions. In the northern part, where the average temperature was lower and the precipitation more abundant than the regional average, reduced growth was associated with cool conditions. Thus, our study highlights the substantial plasticity of Aleppo pine in response to different climatic conditions. These results do not resolve the source of response variability as being due to either genetic variation in provenance, to phenotypic plasticity, or a combination of factors. However, as current growth responses to inter-annual climate variability vary spatially across existing climate gradients, future climate-growth relationships will also likely be determined by differential adaptation and/or acclimation responses to spatial climatic variation. The contribution of local adaptation and/or phenotypic plasticity across populations to the persistence of species under global warming could be decisive for prediction of climate change impacts across populations. In this sense, a more complex forest dynamics modeling approach that includes the contribution of genetic variation and phenotypic plasticity can improve the reliability of the ecological inferences derived from the climate-growth relationships.     

The Eocene climate of China,the early elevation of the Tibetan Plateau and the onset of the Asian Monsoon

Eocene palynological samples from 37 widely distributed sites across China were analysed using co‐existence approach to determine trends in space and time for seven palaeoclimate variables: Mean annual temperature, mean annual precipitation, mean temperature of the warmest month, mean temperature of the coldest month, mean annual range of temperature, mean maximum monthly precipitation and mean minimum monthly precipitation. Present day distributions and observed climates within China of the nearest living relatives of the fossil forms were used to find the range of a given variable in which a maximum number of taxa can coexist. Isotherm and isohyet maps for the early, middle and late Eocene were constructed. These illustrate regional changing patterns in thermal and precipitational gradients that may be interpreted as the beginnings of the modern Asian Monsoon system, and suggest that the uplift of parts of the Tibetan Plateau appear to have taken place by the middle to late Eocene.