Elusive species distribution modelling: The case of Natrix natrix cypriaca

Improving knowledge on species distribution is a fundamental part of ecological research and imperative when it comes to species conservation and management. For rare, endemic, and elusive species the effort to obtain reliable ecological data is extremely challenging. Data sparsity, or the use of outdated data, for species that are in the greatest need of protection, hampers the ability to develop efficient conservation and management schemes.In the present research, we use SDMs to examine the predictive distribution of elusive species exemplified by the Cyprus grass snake (Natrix natrix cypriaca). We use two different methods (i.e. Maxent and Ensemble) and three different sets of environmental envelopes (i.e. bioclimatic, biophysical, combined) for predicting species distribution. We compare the results of each model with the Extent of Occurrence (EOO) and Area of Occupancy (AOO) of the species and map high potential occurrence areas for future survey efforts indicating areas of interest outside the species previously known distribution.This research is the first effort to predict and map the potential distribution of this elusive species. The results have significantly improved past estimations clearly indicating a geographic range larger and wider that what was previously thought, providing new perspectives on the species ecology and conservation. This study demonstrates that SDMs can be employed successfully for elusive species with limited current localities providing insights on their distribution guiding monitoring schemes and conservation actions.     

Assessing range‐wide conservation status change in an unmonitored widespread African bird species

Aim

With the exception of South Africa there are no systematic, long‐term, large‐scale bird monitoring programmes in Africa, and for much of the continent the most comprehensive available data for most species are incidental occurrence records. Can such data be used to assess range‐wide conservation status of widespread low‐density species? We examine this using Kori Bustard Ardeotis kori, a large, easily identifiable species with an extensive African range.

Location

Southern and East Africa, 14 countries.

Methods

A comprehensive and systematic review of published and unpublished sources provided 1948 unique locality records spanning the years 1863–2009; these included 410 non‐atlas records and 97 historical (pre‐1970) records. Range‐size changes were examined by comparing minimum convex polygons to quantify Extent of Occurrence pre‐ and post‐1970, and by testing whether more historical records fell outside the recent (post‐1970) 95% probability kernel than expected by chance. Additionally, qualitative evidence of changes in abundance was obtained from historical published accounts and contemporary assessments by in‐country experts.

Results

Since the late 19th century, range‐size (measured as Extent of Occurrence) has contracted, by 21% in East Africa and 8% in southern Africa. There is strong qualitative evidence of considerable pre‐ and post‐1970 population declines in all range states, except Zambia (slight increase) and Angola (trend unclear). In some countries, declines occurred from the early 1900s. Thus, while relatively modest change in range‐size has occurred in over 100 years, numbers have greatly reduced throughout the species’ range.

Main conclusions

Our methodology allowed objective appraisal of continent‐wide Kori status. Despite lacking quantitative population estimates and trends, and poor understanding of the species’ autecology, common issues for many African species, incidental occurrence records can be used to assess range‐wide changes in status. We recommend that this or similar approaches be applied to other widespread low‐density species that probably also have rapidly declining populations despite apparently stable range extents.

     

The narrow endemic Scrophularia valdesii Ortega-Olivencia & Devesa (Scrophulariaceae) in the Iberian Peninsula: an evaluation of its conservation status

The aim of this study is to determine the conservation status of Scrophularia valdesii Ortega-Olivencia & Devesa, a threatened narrow endemism of the Duero Basin (central-western Spain and north-eastern Portugal, Lusitan Duriensean biogeographical sector), by using the IUCN (2001) IUCN Red List Categories and Criteria: version 3.1. IUCN Species Survival Commision. IUCN, Gland, Switzerland and Cambridge, UK. The species is listed as threatened in several Spanish compilatory works on threatened flora, such as `The Spanish Red List of Vascular Flora' and the `Atlas and Red Book of Threatened Vascular Flora of Spain', although it does not figure as such in any Portuguese document. Here we report detailed studies of its distribution, and assess its current conservation status with respect to this, the sizes of its populations, and the threats it faces. Our estimation of the size of the Iberian populations was based on our own census data from those sites at which we found the species. All censuses were performed by direct counting of all potentially reproductive individuals. Fourteen populations were found, and the total members thought to exist are 161, with a highly fragmented distribution on the Spanish–Portuguese border along the valley of the River Duero. Exhaustive bibliographical and field surveys were carried out and herbarium specimens housed in several herbaria were revised in order to determine the Extent of Occurrence and the Area of Occupancy. Based on our data, the species is classifiable as Critically Endangered and Endangered in Portugal and Spain, respectively. The risk of local population extinction is high due to its typically small local population sizes and suitable conservation strategies should be developed in order to preserve the species.     

Conservation status of the threatened Iberian Peninsula narrow endemic Antirrhinum lopesianum Rothm. (Scrophulariaceae)

Abstract

Antirrhinum lopesianum Rothm. is a narrow endemic of the Lusitan Duriensean biogeographical sector (central western Spain and north-eastern Portugal). The species is listed as threatened in several Spanish documents, although it does not figure as such in any Portuguese document. This paper provides a detailed study of its distribution, estimates of the sizes of its populations, the threats it faces, and its current conservation status. The total number of individuals thought to exist is only 768, distributed along the valley of the River Duero on the Spanish – Portuguese border (562, 71.2%), and in the Portuguese Sabor River valley (206, 26.8%). The main threat to the species is loss of habitat: about one third of the Iberian populations can be considered threatened; one population containing 37.6% of all these plants (289) is severely threatened. To determine the Area of Occupancy and the Extent of Occurrence, an exhaustive bibliographical survey was carried out, and herbarium specimens deposited in several institutions were revised. It is, therefore, classifiable as Critically Endangered in Portugal and Endangered in Spain.     

Using historical accounts to set conservation baselines: the case of Lynx species in Spain

The knowledge of the historical range of organisms is necessary to understand distribution dynamics and their drivers as well as to set reference conditions and conservation goals. We reviewed written sources documenting the presence of lynxes in Spain between the sixteenth and nineteenth centuries, trying to infer whether Lynx records referred to the Iberian (Lynx pardinus) or the Eurasian (Lynx lynx) species. We compiled 151 spatially specific, non-redundant Lynx records, dating between 1572 and 1897. Records appeared split in two neatly separated areas, North and South. Arguably, all historical records from the South area correspond to Iberian lynx, since almost all of them fall within the estimated range of the species in the 1950s. This suggests that the core distribution area of the species remained relatively stable for centuries, until the second half of the twentieth century. The reported range in the 1950s is thus an appropriate scenario to set conservation goals for this critically endangered species. The North area extended from Galicia and northern Portugal to the Mediterranean, mainly occupying the Atlantic-climate area of northern Iberia. Reported direct measurements and the accumulation of indirect evidences suggest that most, if not all, northern Lynx records refer to the Eurasian lynx, which had been previously detected in archaeological sites of the area. This species was apparently present in the Iberian Peninsula until the early-nineteenth century. Our results provide an objective, baseline distribution of Lynx species in Spain useful to guide conservation efforts both at the Iberian and European levels.     

Still a one species genus? Strong genetic diversification in the world’s largest living odonate,the Neotropical damselfly Megaloprepus caerulatus

Mesoamerican biodiversity is increasingly threatened by anthropogenic destruction of natural land cover. Habitat degradation and climate change are primary threats to specialized forest odonate species that are important model organisms for forest health and defining conservation units. The extreme niche specialization of Megaloprepus caerulatus, the world’s largest extant odonate, makes it well suited as an indicator for changing environmental conditions. Megaloprepus, which is considered to be a monospecific genus, is highly dependent on old growth forests whose water filled tree holes are limiting reproductive resources for this species. Here, we focus on the question how historical and recent fragmentation events, strong niche conservatism and ecological conditions have affected population dynamics, viability and the species status in this evolutionarily old genus. Two mitochondrial sequence markers (ND1 and 16S rRNA) and a set of microsatellites were used to analyze population structure and genetic diversity of M. caerulatus in the northern part of its distributional range. Results suggested an absence of gene flow and no shared haplotypes among the study populations. Statistical parsimony indicated high sub-structuring among populations with sequence diversity similar to levels found at the species level compared to other odonates. In sum, the genetic data suggest that Megaloprepus may actually consist of more than one species. The taxonomic status of the group should be revised in light of the three distinct genetic clusters found in different forest regions. The results may also allow insights into the impact of recent and historical habitat fragmentation on a strong Neotropical forest restricted insect species.     

Tourism and the Conservation of Critically Endangered Frogs

Protected areas are critical for the conservation of many threatened species. Despite this, many protected areas are acutely underfunded, which reduces their effectiveness significantly. Tourism is one mechanism to promote and fund conservation in protected areas, but there are few studies analyzing its tangible conservation outcomes for threatened species. This study uses the 415 IUCN critically endangered frog species to evaluate the contribution of protected area tourism revenue to conservation. Contributions were calculated for each species as the proportion of geographic range inside protected areas multiplied by the proportion of protected area revenues derived from tourism. Geographic ranges were determined from IUCN Extent of Occurrence maps. Almost 60% (239) of critically endangered frog species occur in protected areas. Higher proportions of total range are protected in Nearctic, Australasian and Afrotopical regions. Tourism contributions to protected area budgets ranged from 5–100%. These financial contributions are highest for developing countries in the Afrotropical, Indomalayan and Neotropical regions. Data for both geographic range and budget are available for 201 critically endangered frog species with proportional contributions from tourism to species protection ranging from 0.8–99%. Tourism''s financial contributions to critically endangered frog species protection are highest in the Afrotropical region. This study uses a coarse measure but at the global scale it demonstrates that tourism has significant potential to contribute to global frog conservation efforts.     

The critically endangered Asiatic cheetah <Emphasis Type="Italic">Acinonyx jubatus venaticus</Emphasis> in Iran: a review of recent distribution,and conservation status

Considerable effort has been put into conservation of the critically endangered Asiatic cheetah Acinonyx jubatus venaticus in Iran during the past few decades, and a thorough review of the species’ status, demography, range and conservation is provided here. We collated a large dataset of all verified occurrence data, photographic records and mortality cases since 1980 throughout the species’ range in Iran. Currently, the cheetah is distributed throughout the arid landscapes of the eastern half of Iran, but the limits of its current and past range as well as population trends are uncertain. Surveys of nearly 40 different areas resulted in 18 localities with confirmed presence of cheetahs in recent years. Camera trapping has been an effective tool to provide evidence of presence and status of cheetahs, revealing the species’ extremely low density and long inter-reserve movements. Together with photographic records, a total of 82 different cheetahs were detected during the 2000s in Iran. Protection status in most areas has been elevated by the Iran government. Asiatic cheetahs are highly vulnerable to extinction, mainly due to causalities mediated by herder persecution, poaching and road collisions as well as prey and habitat loss. Some efforts have been made to address these threats, but range expansion in recent years is a result of greater survey effort, rather than population recovery. We suggest that, despite conservation investment of the last 15 years, the species remains critically endangered on the verge of extinction.     

Combining environmental suitability and habitat connectivity to map rare or Data Deficient species in the Tropics

The IUCN Red List is a widely accepted system for classifying species’ risk of extinction, based on quantitative criteria. Although IUCN discourages the liberal use of the category “Data Deficient” (DD), most assessed groups have a large number of their species assigned to this category, especially in the Tropics. Therefore, DD species can introduce considerable uncertainty into estimates of proportions of threatened species, and research focused on elucidating the true status of those species should be a priority. Here we propose a simple method to gather information on geographic distribution and guide the search for new populations of rare, small-ranged, forest species, using the literature, online data, and standard GIS procedures. The method involves: (i) creating a geographic distribution model; (ii) selecting the environmentally suitable sites from that model; (iii) removing sites that have lost natural vegetation; and (iv) removing habitat networks that are too small and/or isolated, based on thresholds established from known occurrence records and the literature for ecologically similar species. As a case study, we use Lonchophylla peracchii, a recently described forest-dependent bat endemic to southeastern Brazil. We found that environmentally suitable sites for L. peracchii are already heavily deforested, confirming habitat loss as a major threat. Importantly, we identified five priority sites to search for the species outside of its currently known distribution. From that, we discuss its likely status based on IUCN's Criterion B2 (Extent of Occurrence). This method could be useful for other poorly known forest species, especially in the Tropics where most of these species are, and funding for research and fieldwork is scarcest. Currently there are 1910 terrestrial vertebrates in tropical forest worldwide classified as DD that could be evaluated using this method, provided that they have at least 5–10 occurrence records.     

Farmers without borders—genetic structuring in century old barley (Hordeum vulgare)

The geographic distribution of genetic diversity can reveal the evolutionary history of a species. For crop plants, phylogeographic patterns also indicate how seed has been exchanged and spread in agrarian communities. Such patterns are, however, easily blurred by the intense seed trade, plant improvement and even genebank conservation during the twentieth century, and discerning fine-scale phylogeographic patterns is thus particularly challenging. Using historical crop specimens, these problems are circumvented and we show here how high-throughput genotyping of historical nineteenth century crop specimens can reveal detailed geographic population structure. Thirty-one historical and nine extant accessions of North European landrace barley (Hordeum vulgare L.), in total 231 individuals, were genotyped on a 384 single nucleotide polymorphism assay. The historical material shows constant high levels of within-accession diversity, whereas the extant accessions show more varying levels of diversity and a higher degree of total genotype sharing. Structure, discriminant analysis of principal components and principal component analysis cluster the accessions in latitudinal groups across country borders in Finland, Norway and Sweden. F_ST statistics indicate strong differentiation between accessions from southern Fennoscandia and accessions from central or northern Fennoscandia, and less differentiation between central and northern accessions. These findings are discussed in the context of contrasting historical records on intense within-country south to north seed movement. Our results suggest that although seeds were traded long distances, long-term cultivation has instead been of locally available, possibly better adapted, genotypes.     

A GIS model predicting potential distributions of a lineage: a test case on hermit spiders (Nephilidae: Nephilengys)

Background

Although numerous studies model species distributions, these models are almost exclusively on single species, while studies of evolutionary lineages are preferred as they by definition study closely related species with shared history and ecology. Hermit spiders, genus Nephilengys, represent an ecologically important but relatively species-poor lineage with a globally allopatric distribution. Here, we model Nephilengys global habitat suitability based on known localities and four ecological parameters.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We geo-referenced 751 localities for the four most studied Nephilengys species: N. cruentata (Africa, New World), N. livida (Madagascar), N. malabarensis (S-SE Asia), and N. papuana (Australasia). For each locality we overlaid four ecological parameters: elevation, annual mean temperature, annual mean precipitation, and land cover. We used linear backward regression within ArcGIS to select two best fit parameters per species model, and ModelBuilder to map areas of high, moderate and low habitat suitability for each species within its directional distribution. For Nephilengys cruentata suitable habitats are mid elevation tropics within Africa (natural range), a large part of Brazil and the Guianas (area of synanthropic spread), and even North Africa, Mediterranean, and Arabia. Nephilengys livida is confined to its known range with suitable habitats being mid-elevation natural and cultivated lands. Nephilengys malabarensis, however, ranges across the Equator throughout Asia where the model predicts many areas of high ecological suitability in the wet tropics. Its directional distribution suggests the species may potentially spread eastwards to New Guinea where the suitable areas of N. malabarensis largely surpass those of the native N. papuana, a species that prefers dry forests of Australian (sub)tropics.

Conclusions

Our model is a customizable GIS tool intended to predict current and future potential distributions of globally distributed terrestrial lineages. Its predictive potential may be tested in foreseeing species distribution shifts due to habitat destruction and global climate change.     

Integrating field surveys and remote sensing data to study distribution, habitat use and conservation status of the herpetofauna of the Comoro Islands

We studied the non-marine reptile and amphibian species of the volcanic Comoro archipelago in the Western Indian Ocean, a poorly known island herpetofauna comprising numerous microendemic species of potentially high extinction risk and widespread, non-endemic and often invasive taxa. According to our data, the Comoro islands are inhabited by two amphibian species and at least 28 species of reptiles although ongoing genetic studies and unconfirmed historical records suggest an even higher species diversity. 14 of the 28 currently recognized species of terrestrial reptiles (50%) and the two amphibians are endemic to a single island or to the Comoro archipelago. The majority of species are most abundant at low elevation. However, a few endemic species, like the gekkonid lizards Paroedura sanctijohannis and Phelsuma nigristriata, are more common in or even confined to higher altitudes. We created habitat maps from remotely sensed data in combination with detailed species distribution maps produced using comprehensive data from field surveys between 2000 and 2010, literature, and historical locality records based on specimens in zoological collections. Using these data, we assessed the conservation status of the endemic terrestrial reptiles and amphibians according to the IUCN Red List criteria. Our results show that although little area of natural forest remains on the Comoros, many species are abundant in degraded forest or plantations. Competition and predation by invasive species appears to be the most important threat factor for the endemic herpetofauna, together with habitat degradation and destruction, which further favours invasive species. We propose the status Endangered for three species, Vulnerable for one species, Near Threatened for six species, Least Concern for four and Data Deficient for two species. The endemic subspecies Oplurus cuvieri comorensis is proposed for the status Critically Endangered. Based on the results of this study, seven areas of importance for reptile and amphibian conservation on the Comoros are identified. This study shows how remote sensing data can contribute to increasing accuracy and objectiveness of conservation assessments.     

A model assessing the conservation threats to freshwater turtles of Sub-Saharan Africa predicts urgent need for continental conservation planning

Global assessment of conservation threats to several taxonomic groups are urgently needed for species living in regions of the world where field research is curtailed by logistic or economic constraints. For instance, it is now widely recognized that freshwater turtles represent one of the most endangered groups of vertebrates in the world. This situation has been particularly evident with Asian species. Although in Sub-Saharan Africa species are exposed to very similar threats (e.g., intense hunting for food and traditional medicine, habitat loss, collection for the pet trade, etc.), there is no comparable concern in the international conservation community simply because the African species are still too poorly known. Here, I propose a model for analyzing the threat levels to freshwater turtles of Sub-Saharan Africa and I test this model by taking into consideration a series of six risk variables of distribution and ecology. Each variable was categorized into five ranks (0–4) of increasing survival risk. The results, although preliminary, show a great sensitivity of most species. This strongly contrasts with the fact that apart from Malagasy endemics very few species are currently considered as threatened according to IUCN lists. There were clear differences among-families in the major threats. Softshell turtles are especially threatened because their large body size makes them a very good food source for native populations. The single podocnemidid species is also vulnerable, and is particularly sensitive to human hunting for domestic consumption. Concerning the Pelomedusidae, there are several species that are considered by the model as sensitive or highly sensitive to rarity. They are affected by a combination of threats (Extent of distribution in Sub-Saharan Africa, Habitat breadth, Habits, Likeliness of human direct/indirect persecution, and Habitat vulnerability). The conservation implications of these results are discussed.     

Biology and conservation of the Giant Otter Pteronura brasiliensis

The Giant Otter Pteronura brasiliensis (Zimmermann, 1780) is endemic to South America, distributed throughout the Orinoco, Amazon and La Plata River basins and numerous localities in the Guyanas. This otter is the largest member of the family Mustelidae, clearly distinguished from other South American otter species by morphological and behavioural characteristics. Large-scale pelt hunting in the 1950s and 1960s led to the classification of the species as 'vulnerable' by the World Conservation Union (IUCN, 1990). Habitat degradation and destruction now present the largest threat to remaining populations. The current distribution of the Giant Otter is presented, emphasizing recent information collected in the Amazon Basin. Morphology, systematics, habitat, behaviour, diet, predation, competition, reproduction, development and physiology are discussed. New data on habitat use and preference, behaviour and diet in northern Amazônia are included, and recommendations for future conservation measures are made. Because of the decimation of the Giant Otter in its southern distribution and the habitat destruction occurring in the remainder of its range, we recommend that this species be elevated to 'endangered' status in the IUCN Red Data Book.     

Where are the survivors? Tracking relictual populations of endangered frogs in Costa Rica

Aim We used abiotic environmental variables and historical locality records to infer distributions of endangered anuran species of Costa Rica to promote efficient strategies for future amphibian surveys. Location Costa Rica. Methods We used a Maximum Entropy Algorithm (Maxent) to predict potential distribution maps for 17 species of endangered anurans and create a consensus map of species richness. We compared the environmental conditions from localities where relictual amphibian populations were recently rediscovered with the conditions across their historical range to evaluate the possibility that these relictual populations might occur in specific climatic conditions that could explain their persistence. We used a multicriteria analysis considering the following factors: the intersection zones between the consensus map, conservation areas, potential Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis (Bd) distribution, collecting effort and areas within the precipitation range at which reappearances had occurred to locate sites for future surveys. Results The resulting predictions suggest that suitable areas for the highest number of species occur between 1300 and 2500 m.a.s.l and are concentrated along the Pacific slopes of the Cordillera de Talamanca and Cordillera Volcánica Central. Around 45% of the high potential richness area is under protection. Relictual populations of declined species seem to persist mainly in highly humid localities (2500–3500 mm of mean annual precipitation). Around 240 km² has an ideal environment for the rediscovery of relictual populations. The multicriteria analysis showed that around 0.5% of the Costa Rican territory should be surveyed exhaustively for frogs. Main conclusions Many of the potential refugia we identified here have not been surveyed since 2000, the areas identified by the best model predictions correspond well with the localities of the relictual populations recently reported. We suggest future surveys of missing amphibian species should focus on these areas. The discovery of populations of endangered species can be used to propose conservation areas.     

Identification of suitable habitat for Taxus wallichiana and Abies pindrow in moist temperate forest using maxent modelling technique

Conservation of any species necessitates knowledge of its biology and natural history, as well as prospective locations or newer adaptive landscapes where the species can survive and thrive. This study presents habitat suitability and local conservation status of Taxus wallichiana and Abies pindrow in moist temperate forest of Hazara division, Pakistan. Data was collected through field surveys based on 363 samples from field, topographical and bioclimatic variables. In the present study, we employed the MaxEnt model exclusively for each tree species along with 23 independent or environment variables (19 bioclimatic and 4 topographic). The jackknife test was used to demonstrate the significance of variables with the highest gain, and it was found that overall tree cover, annual temperature range was the factors with the highest gain, while slope was amongst the least important. The MaxEnt model produced high accuracy for each tree species, with receiver operating characteristic (ROC), area under the curve (AUC), training mean testing values for Taxus wallichiana was 0.966 followed by 0.944 for Abies pindrow. Local conservation status of Taxus wallichiana and Abies pindrow was evaluated using IUCN criteria 2001. Taxus wallichiana was declared critically endangered locally as the population size reduced by 87%. In contrast, Abies pindrow was declared as endangered as population size reduced by 69% falling under endangered criteria A of IUCN. The decline in population size of Taxus wallichiana and Abies pindrow species were due to human cause anthropogenic activities such as exploitation and loss of habitat, the extent of occurrence, and slow regeneration of tree species. Results and field-based observation revealed that suitable habitat modeling showed unsuitable (0.0–0.2), less suitable (0.2–0.4), moderately (0.4–0.6), highly (0.6–0.7), and very highly (0.7–1.0) suitable habitat for Taxus wallichiana and Abies pindrow. Results also revealed that both species were distributed irregularly in the moist temperate forest of Hazara division. Habitat suitability of Taxus wallichiana and Abies pindrow can be considered one of most significant points toward conserving these tree species. Habitat loss is a major threat to their occurrence, which should be overcome by ensuring the protection of suitable habitat and conservation approaches. Considering the species ecological and economic value, it is essential to understand how the species distribution may vary as a result of climate change to establish effective conservation policies. This study also includes significant environmental elements that influence species distribution, which could help locate regions where the species could be planted. Forest tree species require effective, scientific, and long-term management and conservation techniques in the study area. Furthermore, the formulation and implementation of protective laws and policies are required to conserve and protect both the conifer species.     

Modelling the Species Distribution of Flat-Headed Cats (Prionailurus planiceps), an Endangered South-East Asian Small Felid

Background

The flat-headed cat (Prionailurus planiceps) is one of the world''s least known, highly threatened felids with a distribution restricted to tropical lowland rainforests in Peninsular Thailand/Malaysia, Borneo and Sumatra. Throughout its geographic range large-scale anthropogenic transformation processes, including the pollution of fresh-water river systems and landscape fragmentation, raise concerns regarding its conservation status. Despite an increasing number of camera-trapping field surveys for carnivores in South-East Asia during the past two decades, few of these studies recorded the flat-headed cat.

Methodology/Principal Findings

In this study, we designed a predictive species distribution model using the Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) algorithm to reassess the potential current distribution and conservation status of the flat-headed cat. Eighty-eight independent species occurrence records were gathered from field surveys, literature records, and museum collections. These current and historical records were analysed in relation to bioclimatic variables (WorldClim), altitude (SRTM) and minimum distance to larger water resources (Digital Chart of the World). Distance to water was identified as the key predictor for the occurrence of flat-headed cats (>50% explanation). In addition, we used different land cover maps (GLC2000, GlobCover and SarVision LLC for Borneo), information on protected areas and regional human population density data to extract suitable habitats from the potential distribution predicted by the MaxEnt model. Between 54% and 68% of suitable habitat has already been converted to unsuitable land cover types (e.g. croplands, plantations), and only between 10% and 20% of suitable land cover is categorised as fully protected according to the IUCN criteria. The remaining habitats are highly fragmented and only a few larger forest patches remain.

Conclusion/Significance

Based on our findings, we recommend that future conservation efforts for the flat-headed cat should focus on the identified remaining key localities and be implemented through a continuous dialogue between local stakeholders, conservationists and scientists to ensure its long-term survival. The flat-headed cat can serve as a flagship species for the protection of several other endangered species associated with the threatened tropical lowland forests and surface fresh-water sources in this region.