Mangrove blue carbon stocks and dynamics are controlled by hydrogeomorphic settings and land‐use change

Globally, carbon‐rich mangrove forests are deforested and degraded due to land‐use and land‐cover change (LULCC). The impact of mangrove deforestation on carbon emissions has been reported on a global scale; however, uncertainty remains at subnational scales due to geographical variability and field data limitations. We present an assessment of blue carbon storage at five mangrove sites across West Papua Province, Indonesia, a region that supports 10% of the world's mangrove area. The sites are representative of contrasting hydrogeomorphic settings and also capture change over a 25‐years LULCC chronosequence. Field‐based assessments were conducted across 255 plots covering undisturbed and LULCC‐affected mangroves (0‐, 5‐, 10‐, 15‐ and 25‐year‐old post‐harvest or regenerating forests as well as 15‐year‐old aquaculture ponds). Undisturbed mangroves stored total ecosystem carbon stocks of 182–2,730 (mean ± SD: 1,087 ± 584) Mg C/ha, with the large variation driven by hydrogeomorphic settings. The highest carbon stocks were found in estuarine interior (EI) mangroves, followed by open coast interior, open coast fringe and EI forests. Forest harvesting did not significantly affect soil carbon stocks, despite an elevated dead wood density relative to undisturbed forests, but it did remove nearly all live biomass. Aquaculture conversion removed 60% of soil carbon stock and 85% of live biomass carbon stock, relative to reference sites. By contrast, mangroves left to regenerate for more than 25 years reached the same level of biomass carbon compared to undisturbed forests, with annual biomass accumulation rates of 3.6 ± 1.1 Mg C ha^?1 year^?1. This study shows that hydrogeomorphic setting controls natural dynamics of mangrove blue carbon stocks, while long‐term land‐use changes affect carbon loss and gain to a substantial degree. Therefore, current land‐based climate policies must incorporate landscape and land‐use characteristics, and their related carbon management consequences, for more effective emissions reduction targets and restoration outcomes.     

海平面上升影响下广西钦州湾红树林脆弱性评价

全球气候变化所导致的海平面上升等现象对海岸带产生显著影响。红树林是生长在热带、亚热带沿海潮间带的生态系统,对海平面上升极为敏感。以广西钦州湾红树林生态系统为对象,采用SPRC(Source-Pathway-Receptor-Consequence)评估模式分析了气候变化所导致的海平面上升对红树林生态系统的主要影响。构建了以海平面上升速率、地面沉降/抬升速率、生境高程、日均淹水时间、潮滩坡度和沉积速率为指标的脆弱性评价体系。在GIS平台上量化各脆弱性指标,计算脆弱性指数并分级,建立了定量评价红树林生态系统脆弱性方法,实现了在不同海平面上升情景(近40年来广西海平面平均上升速率、IPCC预测的B1和A1FI情景)和时间尺度下(2030年、2050和2100年),广西钦州湾红树林生态系统脆弱性的定量空间评价。研究结果表明,在近40年广西海平面平均上升速率与B1情景下,钦州湾红树林在各评估时段表现为不脆弱。而在A1FI情景下,至2050年研究区域41.3%红树林为低脆弱,至2100年增加至69.8%。研究采用的SPRC评估模型、脆弱性评价指标体系和定量空间评估方法能够客观定量评价气候变化所导致的海平面上升影响下红树林生态系统脆弱性,可为制定切实可行的应对措施和保障海岸带生态系统安全提供科学依据。     

Non‐native mangroves support carbon storage,sediment carbon burial,and accretion of coastal ecosystems

Mangrove forests play an important role in climate change adaptation and mitigation by maintaining coastline elevations relative to sea level rise, protecting coastal infrastructure from storm damage, and storing substantial quantities of carbon (C) in live and detrital pools. Determining the efficacy of mangroves in achieving climate goals can be complicated by difficulty in quantifying C inputs (i.e., differentiating newer inputs from younger trees from older residual C pools), and mitigation assessments rarely consider potential offsets to CO₂ storage by methane (CH₄) production in mangrove sediments. The establishment of non‐native Rhizophora mangle along Hawaiian coastlines over the last century offers an opportunity to examine the role mangroves play in climate mitigation and adaptation both globally and locally as novel ecosystems. We quantified total ecosystem C storage, sedimentation, accretion, sediment organic C burial and CH₄ emissions from ~70 year old R. mangle stands and adjacent uninvaded mudflats. Ecosystem C stocks of mangrove stands exceeded mudflats by 434 ± 33 Mg C/ha, and mangrove establishment increased average coastal accretion by 460%. Sediment organic C burial increased 10‐fold (to 4.5 Mg C ha^?1 year^?1), double the global mean for old growth mangrove forests, suggesting that C accumulation from younger trees may occur faster than previously thought, with implications for mangrove restoration. Simulations indicate that increased CH₄ emissions from sediments offset ecosystem CO₂ storage by only 2%–4%, equivalent to 30–60 Mg CO₂‐eq/ha over mangrove lifetime (100 year sustained global warming potential). Results highlight the importance of mangroves as novel systems that can rapidly accumulate C, have a net positive atmospheric greenhouse gas removal effect, and support shoreline accretion rates that outpace current sea level rise. Sequestration potential of novel mangrove forests should be taken into account when considering their removal or management, especially in the context of climate mitigation goals.     

Shrimp ponds lead to massive loss of soil carbon and greenhouse gas emissions in northeastern Brazilian mangroves

Mangroves of the semiarid Caatinga region of northeastern Brazil are being rapidly converted to shrimp pond aquaculture. To determine ecosystem carbon stocks and potential greenhouse gas emissions from this widespread land use, we measured carbon stocks of eight mangrove forests and three shrimp ponds in the Acaraú and Jaguaribe watersheds in Ceará state, Brazil. The shrimp ponds were paired with adjacent intact mangroves to ascertain carbon losses and potential emissions from land conversion. The mean total ecosystem carbon stock of mangroves in this semiarid tropical landscape was 413 ± 94 Mg C/ha. There were highly significant differences in the ecosystem carbon stocks between the two sampled estuaries suggesting caution when extrapolating carbon stock across different estuaries even in the same landscape. Conversion of mangroves to shrimp ponds resulted in losses of 58%–82% of the ecosystem carbon stocks. The mean potential emissions arising from mangrove conversion to shrimp ponds was 1,390 Mg CO₂e/ha. Carbon losses were largely from soils which accounted for 81% of the total emission. Losses from soils >100 cm in depth accounted for 33% of the total ecosystem carbon loss. Soil carbon losses from shrimp pond conversion are equivalent to about 182 years of soil carbon accumulation. Losses from mangrove conversion are about 10‐fold greater than emissions from conversion of upland tropical dry forest in the Brazilian Caatinga underscoring the potential value for their inclusion in climate change mitigation activities.     

The resilience of Indian Western Himalayan forests to regime shift: Are they reaching towards no return point?

Forests across the latitudes are facing regime shift under the influence of changing climate where temperature and precipitation are recognized as prominent drivers. Regime shift of forests can be in the form of conversion of one forest type into another or the alteration of forests into degraded class such as “scrub”. The Indian Western Himalayan (IWH) region hosts valuable forests to support multiple ecosystem services which may be impacted under different thresholds of regime shift. We assessed the threshold of regime shift as transition of forests into scrub considering temperature and precipitation records of the recent decade (2000–2019). A logistic regression model was developed using the forest cover data of IWH as a dependent variable and climatic records (temperature and precipitation) obtained from ERA-5 data as independent variables. Probability values of two classes (forest and scrub) were computed and were used to define present resilience states. The majority of the forest of the IWH region may not withstand any significant rise in temperature or a reduced amount of precipitation as almost 88.68% of forests of the IWH are under the low to moderate resilience category. Forest resilience significantly decreases below 1500 mm of precipitation indicating its tipping point of regime shift into the scrub. Temperature below 6 °C is not favourable for forests whereas a temperature range of 10–20 °C was found as the conducive range for the existence of forests in the region. Such empirical study would support the formulation of management plans and policies for sustainable forest resources and to assess the impacts of climate change.     

Modeling Productivity in Mangrove Forests as Impacted by Effective Soil Water Availability and Its Sensitivity to Climate Change Using Biome-BGC

Ecosystem dynamics and the responses to climate change in mangrove forests are poorly understood. We applied the biogeochemical process model Biome-BGC to simulate the dynamics of net primary productivity (NPP) and leaf area index (LAI) under the present and future climate conditions in mangrove forests in Shenzhen, Zhanjiang, and Qiongshan across the southern coast of China, and in three monocultural mangrove stands of two native species, Avicennia marina and Kandelia obovata, and one exotic species, Sonneratia apetala, in Shenzhen. The soil hydrological process of the model was modified by incorporating a soil water (SW) stress index to account for the impact of the effective SW availability in the coastal wetland. Our modified Biome-BGC well predicted the dynamics of NPP and LAI in the mangrove forests at the study sites. We found that the six mangrove systems differed in sensitivity to variations in the effective SW availability. At the ecosystem level, however, soil salinity alone could not entirely explain the limitation of the effective SW availability on the productivity of mangrove forests. Increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration differentially affected growth of different mangrove species but only had a small impact on NPP (<7%); whereas a doubling of atmospheric CO₂ concentration associated with a 2°C temperature rise would increase NPP by 14–19% across the three geographically separate mangrove forests and by 12% to as much as 68% across the three monocultural mangrove stands. Our simulation analysis indicates that temperature change is more important than increasing CO₂ concentration in affecting productivity of mangroves at the ecosystem level, and that different mangrove species differ in sensitivity to increases in temperature and CO₂ concentration.     

Influence of Microbial Composition on the Carbon Storage Capacity of the Mangrove Soil at the Land-ocean Boundary in the Sundarban Mangrove Ecosystem,India

Spatiotemporal assessment of the mangrove soil of Indian Sundarban revealed that decomposition rate of the organic matter was significantly lower in the anoxic condition than that of the oxic condition. Higher degree of enzyme activity in the oxic soil than the anoxic condition suggested that slower biomineralization in anoxic condition would facilitate long-term storage of organic matter in that particular ecosystem. Microbial population of nitrifying bacteria, phosphate solubilizing bacteria, cellulose degrading bacteria and fungi showed significant reduction in anoxic incubation than that in oxic incubation. In contrary, sulfate reducing bacteria and free living N2 fixing bacteria showed higher population in anoxic incubation indicating their preference for anaerobic condition. Soil CO₂ emission rate decreased with the increase in anoxicity and was largely dependent on the soil redox potential, organic carbon and microbial population of the mangrove soil.     

Methane emissions reduce the radiative cooling effect of a subtropical estuarine mangrove wetland by half

The role of coastal mangrove wetlands in sequestering atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) and mitigating climate change has received increasing attention in recent years. While recent studies have shown that methane (CH₄) emissions can potentially offset the carbon burial rates in low‐salinity coastal wetlands, there is hitherto a paucity of direct and year‐round measurements of ecosystem‐scale CH₄ flux (F_CH4) from mangrove ecosystems. In this study, we examined the temporal variations and biophysical drivers of ecosystem‐scale F_CH4 in a subtropical estuarine mangrove wetland based on 3 years of eddy covariance measurements. Our results showed that daily mangrove F_CH4 reached a peak of over 0.1 g CH₄‐C m^?2 day^?1 during the summertime owing to a combination of high temperature and low salinity, while the wintertime F_CH4 was negligible. In this mangrove, the mean annual CH₄ emission was 11.7 ± 0.4 g CH₄‐C m^–2 year^?1 while the annual net ecosystem CO₂ exchange ranged between ?891 and ?690 g CO₂‐C m^?2 year^?1, indicating a net cooling effect on climate over decadal to centurial timescales. Meanwhile, we showed that mangrove F_CH4 could offset the negative radiative forcing caused by CO₂ uptake by 52% and 24% over a time horizon of 20 and 100 years, respectively, based on the corresponding sustained‐flux global warming potentials. Moreover, we found that 87% and 69% of the total variance of daily F_CH4 could be explained by the random forest machine learning algorithm and traditional linear regression model, respectively, with soil temperature and salinity being the most dominant controls. This study was the first of its kind to characterize ecosystem‐scale F_CH4 in a mangrove wetland with long‐term eddy covariance measurements. Our findings implied that future environmental changes such as climate warming and increasing river discharge might increase CH₄ emissions and hence reduce the net radiative cooling effect of estuarine mangrove forests.     

Species‐rich boreal forests grew more and suffered less mortality than species‐poor forests under the environmental change of the past half‐century

Climate and other global environmental changes are major threats to ecosystem functioning and biodiversity. However, the importance of plant diversity in mitigating the responses of functioning of natural ecosystems to long‐term environmental change remains unclear. Using inventory data of boreal forests of western Canada from 1958 to 2011, we found that aboveground biomass growth increased over time in species‐rich forests but decreased in species‐poor forests, and importantly, aboveground biomass loss from tree mortality was smaller in species‐rich than species‐poor forests. A further analysis indicated that growth of species‐rich (but not species‐poor) forests was statistically positively associated with rising CO₂, and that mortality in species‐poor forests increased more as climate moisture availability decreased than it did in species‐rich forests. In contrast, growth decreased and mortality increased as the climate warmed regardless of species diversity. Our results suggest that promoting high tree diversity may help reduce the climate and environmental change vulnerability of boreal forests.     

Allometry, biomass, and productivity of mangrove forests: A review

We review 72 published articles to elucidate characteristics of biomass allocation and productivity of mangrove forests and also introduce recent progress on the study of mangrove allometry to solve the site- and species-specific problems. This includes the testing of a common allometric equation, which may be applicable to mangroves worldwide. The biomass of mangrove forests varies with age, dominant species, and locality. In primary mangrove forests, the above-ground biomass tends to be relatively low near the sea and increases inland. On a global scale, mangrove forests in the tropics have much higher above-ground biomass than those in temperate areas. Mangroves often accumulate large amounts of biomass in their roots, and the above-ground biomass to below-ground biomass ratio of mangrove forests is significantly low compared to that of upland forests (ANCOVA, P < 0.01). Several studies have reported on the growth increment of biomass and litter production in mangrove forests. We introduce some recent studies using the so-called “summation method” and investigate the trends in net primary production (NPP). For crown heights below 10 m, the above-ground NPP of mangrove forests is significantly higher (ANOVA, P < 0.01) than in those of tropical upland forests. The above-ground litter production is generally high in mangrove forests. Moreover, in many mangrove forests, the rate of soil respiration is low, possibly because of anaerobic soil conditions. These trends in biomass allocation, NPP, and soil respiration will result in high net ecosystem production, making mangrove forests highly efficient carbon sinks in the tropics.     

Ensemble modeling approach to predict the past and future climate suitability for two mangrove species along the coastal wetlands of peninsular India

Mangroves support numerous ecosystem services and help in reducing coastal ecological risks, yet they are declining rapidly due to climate change, sea level fluctuations and human activities. It is important to understand their responses to climate and sea level changes and identify conservation target areas at spatio-temporal scales, specifically in regions of rich mangrove biodiversity. In this study, we predicted the potential impact of past (Middle Holocene, ∼6000 years), current and future (2050s, 2070s; RCP 2.6 and RCP 8.5) climate change scenarios on the two dominant species in the coastal mangrove forest wetlands of India, i.e., Rhizophora mucronata and Avicennia officinalis through an ensemble species distribution modeling approach. The ensemble modeling has been carried out by integrating eight single algorithm methods. Based on the receiver operating characteristics of area under the curve (AUC) and true skill statistics (TSS) values the ensemble modeling has yielded the highest predictive performance for SVM for both the species and lowest by CART for R. mucronata and BIOCLIM for A. officinalis. The internal evaluation metrics of the resulting Species distribution models (SDMs) tested its robustness with AUC-0.97 and TSS-0.89 for A. officinalis and AUC-0.99 and TSS-0.90 for R. mucronata. Precipitation of Wettest Month (Bio 13) and Mean Temperature of Warmest Quarter (Bio 10) was the most important variable (54–67%) for the distribution of A. officinalis and Precipitation Seasonality (Bio 15) and Precipitation of Warmest Quarter (Bio 18) for R. mucronata. High precipitation and sea-level highstand during middle Holocene led to the maximum range expansion of suitable habitat for the mangrove species which is also validated in the present study by the fossil pollen datasets. Total mangrove habitat in current and future climatic scenarios decreased in 2.6 and 8.5 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) for 2050 and 2070 which indicates the vulnerability of the species to climate change impacts. Mangrove species are projected to shift their ranges more towards land in future experiencing a decrease in the amount of suitable coastal area available to them throughout the Indian coastline. The plausible cause for this range shift may be due to higher precipitation that is usually associated with longer period of soil inundation and because of the rise in sea level. Our findings will assist in formulating species-specific restoration plans for these keystone species in context of climate change in the Indian Subcontinent.     

Holocene mangrove and coastal environmental changes in the western Ganga–Brahmaputra Delta, India

A 50 m-long radiocarbon dated core was studied through sediment and pollen analysis to reconstruct the Holocene mangrove and environmental changes at a coastal site Pakhiralaya in the Sundarban Biosphere Reserve in the western Ganga–Brahmaputra Delta, India. This biosphere reserve harbours a diverse mangrove ecosystem and supports a large number of people living in the area. Pollen and stratigraphic data indicate the existence of a brackish water estuarine mangrove swamp forest in this area during the last 9880 cal yr b.p. The development of the mangrove forest is not shown continuously in the Holocene record. Rapid transgression of the sea (9240 cal yr b.p.) halted the development of the mangrove. After about 8420 cal yr b.p. mangrove recolonised the area and persisted until 7560 cal yr b.p. as a result of a balance between the sedimentation and sea level fluctuation. The mangrove disappeared again from the site until 4800 cal yr b.p. because of a high sedimentation rate and possible delta progradation with loss of habitats. The reappearance of mangrove at the study site occurred with a return of a brackish water estuarine environment and the site then gradually became supra tidal during the mid-late Holocene. The continuity of the mangrove development and dynamics was interrupted by the fluctuating sea levels. Climatic fluctuations were viewed as an indirect factor influencing the mangrove ecosystem.     

Winter climate change and coastal wetland foundation species: salt marshes vs. mangrove forests in the southeastern United States

We live in an era of unprecedented ecological change in which ecologists and natural resource managers are increasingly challenged to anticipate and prepare for the ecological effects of future global change. In this study, we investigated the potential effect of winter climate change upon salt marsh and mangrove forest foundation species in the southeastern United States. Our research addresses the following three questions: (1) What is the relationship between winter climate and the presence and abundance of mangrove forests relative to salt marshes; (2) How vulnerable are salt marshes to winter climate change‐induced mangrove forest range expansion; and (3) What is the potential future distribution and relative abundance of mangrove forests under alternative winter climate change scenarios? We developed simple winter climate‐based models to predict mangrove forest distribution and relative abundance using observed winter temperature data (1970–2000) and mangrove forest and salt marsh habitat data. Our results identify winter climate thresholds for salt marsh–mangrove forest interactions and highlight coastal areas in the southeastern United States (e.g., Texas, Louisiana, and parts of Florida) where relatively small changes in the intensity and frequency of extreme winter events could cause relatively dramatic landscape‐scale ecosystem structural and functional change in the form of poleward mangrove forest migration and salt marsh displacement. The ecological implications of these marsh‐to‐mangrove forest conversions are poorly understood, but would likely include changes for associated fish and wildlife populations and for the supply of some ecosystem goods and services.     

Applying a framework for landscape planning under climate change for the conservation of biodiversity in the Finnish boreal forest

Conservation strategies are often established without consideration of the impact of climate change. However, this impact is expected to threaten species and ecosystem persistence and to have dramatic effects towards the end of the 21st century. Landscape suitability for species under climate change is determined by several interacting factors including dispersal and human land use. Designing effective conservation strategies at regional scales to improve landscape suitability requires measuring the vulnerabilities of specific regions to climate change and determining their conservation capacities. Although methods for defining vulnerability categories are available, methods for doing this in a systematic, cost‐effective way have not been identified. Here, we use an ecosystem model to define the potential resilience of the Finnish forest landscape by relating its current conservation capacity to its vulnerability to climate change. In applying this framework, we take into account the responses to climate change of a broad range of red‐listed species with different niche requirements. This framework allowed us to identify four categories in which representation in the landscape varies among three IPCC emission scenarios (B1, low; A1B, intermediate; A2, high emissions): (i) susceptible (B1 = 24.7%, A1B = 26.4%, A2 = 26.2%), the most intact forest landscapes vulnerable to climate change, requiring management for heterogeneity and resilience; (ii) resilient (B1 = 2.2%, A1B = 0.5%, A2 = 0.6%), intact areas with low vulnerability that represent potential climate refugia and require conservation capacity maintenance; (iii) resistant (B1 = 6.7%, A1B = 0.8%, A2 = 1.1%), landscapes with low current conservation capacity and low vulnerability that are suitable for restoration projects; (iv) sensitive (B1 = 66.4%, A1B = 72.3%, A2 = 72.0%), low conservation capacity landscapes that are vulnerable and for which alternative conservation measures are required depending on the intensity of climate change. Our results indicate that the Finnish landscape is likely to be dominated by a very high proportion of sensitive and susceptible forest patches, thereby increasing uncertainty for landscape managers in the choice of conservation strategies.     

Time lag and negative responses of forest greenness and tree growth to warming over circumboreal forests

The terrestrial forest ecosystems in the northern high latitude region have been experiencing significant warming rates over several decades. These forests are considered crucial to the climate system and global carbon cycle and are particularly vulnerable to climate change. To obtain an improved estimate of the response of vegetation activity, e.g., forest greenness and tree growth, to climate change, we investigated spatiotemporal variations in two independent data sets containing the dendroecological information for this region over the past 30 years. These indices are the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI3g) and the tree‐ring width index (RWI), both of which showed significant spatial variability in past trends and responses to climate changes. These trends and responses to climate change differed significantly in the ecosystems of the circumarctic (latitude higher than 67°N) and the circumboreal forests (latitude higher and lower than 50°N and 67°N, respectively), but the way in which they differed was relatively similar in the NDVI3g and the RWI. In the circumarctic ecosystem, the climate variables of the current summer were the main climatic drivers for the positive response to the increase in temperatures showed by both the NDVI3g and the RWI indices. On the other hand, in the circumboreal forest ecosystem, the climate variables of the previous year (from summer to winter) were also important climatic drivers for both the NDVI3g and the RWI. Importantly, both indices showed that the temperatures in the previous year negatively affected the ecosystem. Although such negative responses to warming did not necessarily lead to a past negative linear trend in the NDVI3g and the RWI over the past 30 years, future climate warming could potentially cause severe reduction in forest greenness and tree growth in the circumboreal forest ecosystem.     

Ranging,Activity and Habitat Use by Tigers in the Mangrove Forests of the Sundarban

The Sundarban of India and Bangladesh (about 6000 km²) are the only mangrove forests inhabited by a sizeable population of tigers. The adjoining area also supports one of the highest human densities and experiences severe human-tiger conflicts. We used GPS-Satellite and VHF radio-collars on 6 (3 males and 3 female) tigers to study their ranging patterns and habitat preference. The average home range (95% Fixed Kernel) for resident females was 56.4 (SE 5.69) and for males it was 110 (SE 49) km². Tigers crossed an average of 5 water channels > 30 meters per day with a mean width of 54 meters, whereas channels larger than 400 meters were rarely crossed. Tigers spent over 58% of their time within Phoenix habitat but compositional analysis showed a habitat preference of the order Avicennia-Sonneratia > Phoenix > Ceriops > Barren > Water. Average daily distance moved was 4.6 km (range 0.1–23). Activity of tigers peaked between 05:00 hours and 10:00 hours showing some overlap with human activity. Territory boundaries were demarcated by large channels which tigers intensively patrolled. Extra caution should be taken while fishing or honey collection during early morning in Avicennia-Sonneratia and Phoenix habitat types along wide channels to reduce human-tiger conflict. Considering home-range core areas as exclusive, tiger density was estimated at 4.6 (SE range 3.6 to 6.7) tigers/100 km² giving a total population of 76 (SE range 59–110) tigers in the Indian Sundarban. Reluctance of tigers to cross wide water channels combined with increasing commercial boat traffic and sea level rise due to climate change pose a real threat of fragmenting the Sundarban tiger population.     

A 2 °C warmer world is not safe for ecosystem services in the European Alps

Limiting the increase in global average temperature to 2 °C is the objective of international efforts aimed at avoiding dangerous climate impacts. However, the regional response of terrestrial ecosystems and the services that they provide under such a scenario are largely unknown. We focus on mountain forests in the European Alps and evaluate how a range of ecosystem services (ES) are projected to be impacted in a 2 °C warmer world, using four novel regional climate scenarios. We employ three complementary forest models to assess a wide range of ES in two climatically contrasting case study regions. Within each climate scenario we evaluate if and when ES will deviate beyond status quo boundaries that are based on current system variability. Our results suggest that the sensitivity of mountain forest ES to a 2 °C warmer world depends heavily on the current climatic conditions of a region, the strong elevation gradients within a region, and the specific ES in question. Our simulations project that large negative impacts will occur at low and intermediate elevations in initially warm‐dry regions, where relatively small climatic shifts result in negative drought‐related impacts on forest ES. In contrast, at higher elevations, and in regions that are initially cool‐wet, forest ES will be comparatively resistant to a 2 °C warmer world. We also found considerable variation in the vulnerability of forest ES to climate change, with some services such as protection against rockfall and avalanches being sensitive to 2 °C global climate change, but other services such as carbon storage being reasonably resistant. Although our results indicate a heterogeneous response of mountain forest ES to climate change, the projected substantial reduction of some forest ES in dry regions suggests that a 2 °C increase in global mean temperature cannot be seen as a universally ‘safe’ boundary for the maintenance of mountain forest ES.     

The exposure,sensitivity and vulnerability of natural vegetation in China to climate thermal variability (1901–2013): An indicator-based approach

Vulnerability assessments can be helpful in assessing the impact of climate change on natural ecosystems and are expected to support adaptation and/or mitigation strategies in the 21st century. A challenge when conducting such assessments is the integration of the multi-level properties and processes of ecosystems into an assessment framework. Focusing on the primary stresses of climate thermal variability (at both upper and lower extremes), this study proposes a quantitative indicator system—following the IPCC framework of vulnerability assessment—that assesses the impact of historical climate change, during 1901–2013, on the natural terrestrial vegetation types in China. The final output of the vulnerability assessment was expressed as a composite index, composed of ecosystem exposure, sensitivity and resilience to climate thermal change, and including biological, ecological and spatial traits of vegetation types in the assessment. The exposure to temperature variability was generally higher in January than in July, and higher in non-arborous vegetation types than forests. In contrast, sensitivity was higher for forests, wetlands and alpine tundra regions, especially for small areas and areas with scattered patterns. Original forests—especially those distributed in the north—had lower resilience than other vegetation types. The vulnerability of natural vegetation types in China to the temperature variability of the past century was very low to moderate, with a few exceptions, including tropical mangroves and the semi-arid to arid vegetation types in northwestern China, which had high vulnerability. Vulnerability was stronger in winter than in summer. Our results are generally in accord with the scenario-based projections on the geographical pattern of vegetation vulnerability to climate change, and revealed the difference caused by not considering moisture. The risks for these fragmented and narrow-range ecosystems are highlighted, and the importance of natural resilience is stressed for the assessment of vegetation vulnerability to climate change. Given the inadequate coverage of the natural reserve network in China (after the large investment in recent decades) found in the high-vulnerability vegetation types (with a few exceptions), the assessment of natural resilience of ecosystems could be critical for the optimal design of socio-economic strategies in response to the impacts of future climate change.     

全球变化影响下的生态系统风险的相关理论及联系

全球变化深刻影响着全球生态系统,全球变化胁迫超过一定程度则会导致生态系统恢复力下降,极端事件频发,从而使生态系统服务功能退化甚至丧失.量化全球变化的风险,进而制定恰当的人为适应策略是目前应对全球变化的重要途径.全球变化可能降低生态系统的恢复力,从而导致生态系统脆弱性升高,引发生态系统退化风险.目前,相关研究多依托基于星...     

Altered dynamics of forest recovery under a changing climate

Forest regeneration following disturbance is a key ecological process, influencing forest structure and function, species assemblages, and ecosystem–climate interactions. Climate change may alter forest recovery dynamics or even prevent recovery, triggering feedbacks to the climate system, altering regional biodiversity, and affecting the ecosystem services provided by forests. Multiple lines of evidence – including global‐scale patterns in forest recovery dynamics; forest responses to experimental manipulation of CO₂, temperature, and precipitation; forest responses to the climate change that has already occurred; ecological theory; and ecosystem and earth system models – all indicate that the dynamics of forest recovery are sensitive to climate. However, synthetic understanding of how atmospheric CO₂ and climate shape trajectories of forest recovery is lacking. Here, we review these separate lines of evidence, which together demonstrate that the dynamics of forest recovery are being impacted by increasing atmospheric CO₂ and changing climate. Rates of forest recovery generally increase with CO₂, temperature, and water availability. Drought reduces growth and live biomass in forests of all ages, having a particularly strong effect on seedling recruitment and survival. Responses of individual trees and whole‐forest ecosystems to CO₂ and climate manipulations often vary by age, implying that forests of different ages will respond differently to climate change. Furthermore, species within a community typically exhibit differential responses to CO₂ and climate, and altered community dynamics can have important consequences for ecosystem function. Age‐ and species‐dependent responses provide a mechanism by which climate change may push some forests past critical thresholds such that they fail to recover to their previous state following disturbance. Altered dynamics of forest recovery will result in positive and negative feedbacks to climate change. Future research on this topic and corresponding improvements to earth system models will be a key to understanding the future of forests and their feedbacks to the climate system.