Mapping human- and bear-centered perspectives on coexistence using a participatory Bayesian framework

Coexistence with wildlife is becoming a key challenge in Europe as populations of large carnivores recover in human-dominated landscapes. Modeling the spatial distribution of conditions for human-bear coexistence can help support conservation by identifying priority areas and measures to support coexistence, but existing models often only address risks either to humans or to large carnivores. In this study, we developed a participatory modeling process that incorporates both human-centered and large carnivore-centered perspectives on coexistence and applied it to a case study of coexistence between humans and the endangered Apennine brown bears (Ursus arctos marsicanus) in Italy. Local and expert knowledge, as well as available data on bear habitats and land use, were integrated into a spatially explicit Bayesian network. This model is used to predict and map the tolerance to bears from the human perspective and the risk of fitness loss from the bear perspective. We found that conditions for human-bear coexistence vary between human communities and are spatially heterogeneous at the local scale, depending on ecological factors, social factors influencing the level of tolerance in community, such as people’s emotions and knowledge, economic factors, such as livelihoods, and policies such as damage compensation. The participatory modeling approach allowed us to integrate perceptions of local people, expert assessments, and spatial data, and can help bridge the gap between science and conservation practice. The resulting coexistence maps can inform conservation decisions, and can be updated as new information becomes available. Our modeling approach could help to efficiently target measures for improving human-large carnivore coexistence in different settings in a site-specific manner.     

Are Species Coexistence Areas a Good Option for Conservation Management? Applications from Fine Scale Modelling in Two Steppe Birds

Biotic interactions and land uses have been proposed as factors that determine the distribution of the species at local scale. The presence of heterospecifics may modify the habitat selection pattern of the individuals and this may have important implications for the design of effective conservation strategies. However, conservation proposals are often focused on a single flagship or umbrella species taken as representative of an entire assemblage requirements. Our aim is to identify and evaluate the role of coexistence areas at local scale as conservation tools, by using distribution data of two endangered birds, the Little Bustard and the Great Bustard. Presence-only based suitability models for each species were built with MaxEnt using variables of substrate type and topography. Probability maps of habitat suitability for each species were combined to generate a map in which coexistence and exclusive use areas were delimitated. Probabilities of suitable habitat for each species inside coexistence and exclusive areas were compared. As expected, habitat requirements of Little and Great Bustards differed. Coexistence areas presented lower probabilities of habitat suitability than exclusive use ones. We conclude that differences in species'' habitat preferences can hinder the efficiency of protected areas with multi-species conservation purposes. Our results highlight the importance of taking into account the role of biotic interactions when designing conservation measurements.     

Are wildlife value orientations useful tools to explain tolerance and illegal killing of wildlife by farmers in response to crop damage?

Understanding human-wildlife conflicts and monitoring their consequences, such as wildlife persecution, is crucial for biological conservation. Although most theoretical models suggest that the influence of value orientations on behavior is mediated by higher order constructs such as attitudes and norms, wildlife value orientations are widely used to assess human-wildlife relationships and to predict human behavior towards wildlife. We have no evidence of studies which have measured them in Mediterranean countries, where the highest biodiversity level in temperate Western countries is present. In spring 2016, we administered a questionnaire to local farmers in Central Italy to measure the association between wildlife value orientations and illegal killing of wildlife, in response to crop or poultry damages (n = 352). We obtained the prevalence of illegal killing with the Randomized Response Technique, ensuring complete individual protection to respondents. We modeled the effect of wildlife value orientations over illegal wildlife killing with a Bayesian logistic regression for three taxa: the red fox, the crested porcupine, and birds, as most of persecution by farmers in our study site is exerted towards them. We found that domination predicted illegal killing for the red fox only. On the other hand, mutualism predicted tolerance towards all the study taxa. Combining wildlife value orientations and the Randomized Response Technique can be a promising approach to explore human-wildlife conflicts and their consequences. Furthermore, the Mediterranean setting of our study filled existing geographical gaps about wildlife value orientations in Europe. We encourage future research on the application of wildlife value orientations to conflicts involving wildlife and extensive farmers, i.e., at large scale, as well as future large-scale research on wildlife value orientations in Europe.     

The Lion King and the Hyaena Queen: large carnivore interactions and coexistence

Interactions among species, which range from competition to facilitation, have profound effects on ecosystem functioning. Large carnivores are of particular importance in shaping community structure since they are at the top of the food chain, and many efforts are made to conserve such keystone species. Despite this, the mechanisms of carnivore interactions are far from understood, yet they are key to enabling or hindering their coexistence and hence are highly relevant for their conservation. The goal of this review is thus to provide detailed information on the extents of competition and facilitation between large carnivores and their impact in shaping their life histories. Here, we use the example of spotted hyaenas (Crocuta crocuta) and lions (Panthera leo) and provide a comprehensive knowledge of their interactions based on meta‐analyses from available literature (148 publications). Despite their strong potential for both exploitation and interference competition (range and diet overlap, intraguild predation and kleptoparasitism), we underline some mechanisms facilitating their coexistence (different prey‐age selection and scavenging opportunities). We stress the fact that prey abundance is key to their coexistence and that hyaenas forming very large groups in rich ecosystems could have a negative impact on lions. We show that the coexistence of spotted hyaenas and lions is a complex balance between competition and facilitation, and that prey availability within the ecosystem determines which predator is dominant. However, there are still many gaps in our knowledge such as the spatio‐temporal dynamics of their interactions. As both species' survival becomes increasingly dependent on protected areas, where their densities can be high, it is critical to understand their interactions to inform both reintroduction programs and protected area management.     

The Carrot or the Stick? Evaluation of Education and Enforcement as Management Tools for Human-Wildlife Conflicts

Evidence-based decision-making is critical for implementing conservation actions, especially for human-wildlife conflicts, which have been increasing worldwide. Conservation practitioners recognize that long-term solutions should include altering human behaviors, and public education and enforcement of wildlife-related laws are two management actions frequently implemented, but with little empirical evidence evaluating their success. We used a system where human-black bear conflicts were common, to experimentally test the efficacy of education and enforcement in altering human behavior to better secure attractants (garbage) from bears. We conducted 3 experiments in Aspen CO, USA to evaluate: 1) on-site education in communal dwellings and construction sites, 2) Bear Aware educational campaign in residential neighborhoods, and 3) elevated law enforcement at two levels in the core business area of Aspen. We measured human behaviors as the response including: violation of local wildlife ordinances, garbage availability to bears, and change in use of bear-resistance refuse containers. As implemented, we found little support for education, or enforcement in the form of daily patrolling in changing human behavior, but found more support for proactive enforcement, i.e., dispensing warning notices. More broadly we demonstrated the value of gathering evidence before and after implementing conservation actions, and the dangers of measuring responses in the absence of ecological knowledge. We recommend development of more effective educational methods, application of proactive enforcement, and continued evaluation of tools by directly measuring change in human behavior. We provide empirical evidence adding to the conservation managers' toolbox, informing policy makers, and promoting solutions to human-wildlife conflicts.     

Tiger and leopard co-occurrence: intraguild interactions in response to human and livestock disturbance

Intraguild interactions have important implications for carnivore demography and conservation. Differences in how predators respond to different forms of disturbance might alter their interaction patterns. We sought to understand how human and livestock disturbance impact co-occurrence of sympatric large carnivores such as tiger (Panthera tigris) and leopard (P. pardus) and thereby mediate the intraguild interaction pattern to enable coexistence of the species in a human-dominated landscape. We surveyed 361 locations in Chitwan National Park, Nepal, to examine how prey abundance and disturbance factors such as human and livestock presence might influence habitat use by tigers and leopards independently and when co-occurring. Single-species single-season models and two-species single-season models were developed to examine hypotheses on unconditional detection and occupancy and species interaction respectively. Pervasive human use of the park had negative impacts on tiger occupancy while the abundance of prey had a positive influence. Despite significant prey overlap between tigers and leopards, none of the native prey species predicted leopard habitat occupancy. However, habitats used extensively by livestock were also used by leopards. Further, we found strong evidence of intraguild competition. For instance tiger occupancy was higher in prey-rich areas and leopard occupancy was low in the sites where tigers were present. These findings, and a species interaction factor of < 1 clearly indicate that leopards avoid tigers, but their use of areas of disturbance enables them to persist in fringe habitats. We provide empirical evidence of how intraguild interaction may result in habitat segregation between competing carnivores, while also showing that human and livestock use of the landscape create disturbance patterns that facilitate co-occurrence of the predators. Thus, because large carnivores compete, some disturbance may mediate coexistence in small protected areas. Understanding such interactions can help address important conservation challenges associated with maintaining diverse carnivore communities in small or disturbed landscapes.     

The Shifting of Ecological Restoration Benchmarks and Their Social Impacts: Digging Deeper into Pleistocene Re‐wilding

Current and projected rates of species loss prompt us to look for innovative conservation efforts. One such proposal is that large areas of North America be re‐wilded with old world species that descended from Pleistocene mega‐fauna. We argue that this approach overlooks many important ecological, evolutionary, cultural, and economic issues and detracts from conservation efforts by adding another arbitrary restoration benchmark. Our objectives are to specifically address the shifting benchmark for ecological restoration, explore the social dimensions of Pleistocene re‐wilding, which have been largely overlooked, and discuss why we think Pleistocene re‐wilding is not a proactive approach for conservation. This is not intended as a critique of innovative approaches. Instead it is an argument that human and ecological factors need to be considered in depth before any restoration initiative can be practically implemented. Proactive approaches should consider historical conditions while managing based on the present, should plan for the future, and should allow adaptation to changing conditions. We support the strategy to restore ecological interactions using species that coevolved with these interactions, bearing in mind the complexities of the socio‐ecological dimensions of any management action.     

Habitat connectivity for conserving cervids in a multifunctional landscape

Habitat fragmentation is a considerable threat to biodiversity worldwide. To minimize the effects of fragmentation, it is important to identify and conserve the existing habitat connections that facilitate dispersal and gene flow among populations. Connected populations are more resilient to the changing environment that affects local populations due to greater demographic stability and higher genetic diversity. Our study is the first attempt to identify the crucial habitats facilitating the dispersal of two key sympatric cervids - spotted deer Axis axis and sambar Rusa unicolor in central India. We use species distribution models followed by landscape pattern analyses and connectivity analyses to delineate the essential habitats. Thereafter, we estimated the relative contribution of habitats outside protected areas in maintaining the ecological network, using graph-based metrics. We then locate and predict the areas that have a high risk of human-influenced cervid mortality using a Bayesian regression model that accounts for spatial structure in the data. The results show that about 55% of the core habitats, integrated across both species, lie outside the protected areas and are important in maintaining the ecological network for these cervids. Some peripheral habitats have an increased risk of anthropogenic cervid mortality, which poses high demographic risk. There is an urgent need to regulate the nature and intensity of human activities in areas of human-wildlife coexistence to maintain habitat connectivity and ensure the survival of wildlife populations. Our results on cervids complement analyses on connectivity for large carnivores and thus enables one to account for important trophic interactions among wildlife species in land use planning.     

The Role of Space in the Exploitation of Resources

In order to understand the role of space in ecological communities where each species produces a certain type of resource and has varying abilities to exploit the resources produced by its own species and by the other species, we carry out a comparative study of an interacting particle system and its mean-field approximation. For a wide range of parameter values, we show both analytically and numerically that the spatial model results in predictions that significantly differ from its nonspatial counterpart, indicating that the use of the mean-field approach to describe the evolution of communities in which individuals only interact locally is invalid. In two-species communities, the disagreements between the models appear either when both species compete by producing resources that are more beneficial for their own species or when both species cooperate by producing resources that are more beneficial for the other species. In particular, while both species coexist if and only if they cooperate in the mean-field approximation, the inclusion of space in the form of local interactions may prevent coexistence even in cooperative communities. Introducing additional species, cooperation is no longer the only mechanism that promotes coexistence. We prove that, in three-species communities, coexistence results either from a global cooperative behavior, or from rock-paper-scissors type interactions, or from a mixture of these dynamics, which excludes in particular all cases in which two species compete. Finally, and more importantly, we show numerically that the inclusion of space has antagonistic effects on coexistence depending on the mechanism involved, preventing coexistence in the presence of cooperation but promoting coexistence in the presence of rock-paper-scissors interactions. Although these results are partly proved analytically for both models, we also provide somewhat more explicit heuristic arguments to explain the reason why the models result in different predictions.     

Genome-scale gene function prediction using multiple sources of high-throughput data in yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae

Characterizing gene function is one of the major challenging tasks in the post-genomic era. To address this challenge, we have developed GeneFAS (Gene Function Annotation System), a new integrated probabilistic method for cellular function prediction by combining information from protein-protein interactions, protein complexes, microarray gene expression profiles, and annotations of known proteins through an integrative statistical model. Our approach is based on a novel assessment for the relationship between (1) the interaction/correlation of two proteins' high-throughput data and (2) their functional relationship in terms of their Gene Ontology (GO) hierarchy. We have developed a Web server for the predictions. We have applied our method to yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae and predicted functions for 1548 out of 2472 unannotated proteins.     

Reconciling empirical interactions and species coexistence

Coexistence in ecological communities is governed largely by the nature and intensity of species interactions. Countless studies have proposed methods to infer these interactions from empirical data, yet models parameterised using such data often fail to recover observed coexistence patterns. Here, we propose a method to reconcile empirical parameterisations of community dynamics with species‐abundance data, ensuring that the predicted equilibrium is consistent with the observed abundance distribution. To illustrate the approach, we explore two case studies: an experimental freshwater algal community and a long‐term time series of displacement in an intertidal community. We demonstrate how our method helps recover observed coexistence patterns, capture the core dynamics of the system, and, in the latter case, predict the impacts of experimental extinctions. Collectively, these results demonstrate an intuitive approach for reconciling observed and empirical data, improving our ability to explore the links between species interactions and coexistence in natural systems.     

Behavioural biology: an effective and relevant conservation tool

'Conservation behaviour' is a young discipline that investigates how proximate and ultimate aspects of the behaviour of an animal can be of value in preventing the loss of biodiversity. Rumours of its demise are unfounded. Conservation behaviour is quickly building a capacity to positively influence environmental decision making. The theoretical framework used by animal behaviourists is uniquely valuable to elucidating integrative solutions to human-wildlife conflicts, efforts to reintroduce endangered species and reducing the deleterious effects of ecotourism. Conservation behaviourists must join with other scientists under the multidisciplinary umbrella of conservation biology without giving up on their focus: the mechanisms, development, function and evolutionary history of individual differences in behaviour. Conservation behaviour is an increasingly relevant tool in the preservation of nature.     

Key factors and related principles in the conservation of large African carnivores

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Grassland-herbivore interactions: how do grazers coexist?

We develop a new approach to modeling grazing systems that links foraging characteristics (intake and digestive constraints) with resource dynamics via the probability of encounter with different grass heights. Three complementary models are presented: the generation of a grass height structure through selective grazing; investigating the conditions for consumer coexistence; and, using a simplified resource structure, the consequences for consumer abundance. The main finding is that coexistence between grazers differing in body size is possible if a single-resource type becomes differentiated in its height structure. Large grazers can facilitate food availability for smaller species but with the latter being competitively dominant. The relative preference given to different resource partitions is important in determining the nature of population interactions. Large-body and small-body grazer populations can interact through competitive, parasitic, commensalist, or amensalist relationships, depending on the way they partition the resource as well as their relative populations and the dynamics of resource renewal. The models provide new concepts of multispecies carrying capacity (stock equilibrium) in grazed systems with implications for conservation and management. We conclude that consumer species are not substitutable; therefore, the use of rangeland management concepts such as "livestock units" may be inappropriate.     

Deconstructing memory in Drosophila

Unlike most organ systems, which have evolved to maintain homeostasis, the brain has been selected to sense and adapt to environmental stimuli by constantly altering interactions in a gene network that functions within a larger neural network. This unique feature of the central nervous system provides a remarkable plasticity of behavior, but also makes experimental investigations challenging. Each experimental intervention ramifies through both gene and neural networks, resulting in unpredicted and sometimes confusing phenotypic adaptations. Experimental dissection of mechanisms underlying behavioral plasticity ultimately must accomplish an integration across many levels of biological organization, including genetic pathways acting within individual neurons, neural network interactions which feed back to gene function, and phenotypic observations at the behavioral level. This dissection will be more easily accomplished for model systems such as Drosophila, which, compared with mammals, have relatively simple and manipulable nervous systems and genomes. The evolutionary conservation of behavioral phenotype and the underlying gene function ensures that much of what we learn in such model systems will be relevant to human cognition. In this essay, we have not attempted to review the entire Drosophila memory field. Instead, we have tried to discuss particular findings that provide some level of intellectual synthesis across three levels of biological organization: behavior, neural circuitry and biochemical pathways. We have attempted to use this integrative approach to evaluate distinct mechanistic hypotheses, and to propose critical experiments that will advance this field.     

Seagrass ecosystem multifunctionality under the rise of a flagship marine megaherbivore

Large grazers (megaherbivores) have a profound impact on ecosystem functioning. However, how ecosystem multifunctionality is affected by changes in megaherbivore populations remains poorly understood. Understanding the total impact on ecosystem multifunctionality requires an integrative ecosystem approach, which is especially challenging to obtain in marine systems. We assessed the effects of experimentally simulated grazing intensity scenarios on ecosystem functions and multifunctionality in a tropical Caribbean seagrass ecosystem. As a model, we selected a key marine megaherbivore, the green turtle, whose ecological role is rapidly unfolding in numerous foraging areas where populations are recovering through conservation after centuries of decline, with an increase in recorded overgrazing episodes. To quantify the effects, we employed a novel integrated index of seagrass ecosystem multifunctionality based upon multiple, well-recognized measures of seagrass ecosystem functions that reflect ecosystem services. Experiments revealed that intermediate turtle grazing resulted in the highest rates of nutrient cycling and carbon storage, while sediment stabilization, decomposition rates, epifauna richness, and fish biomass are highest in the absence of turtle grazing. In contrast, intense grazing resulted in disproportionally large effects on ecosystem functions and a collapse of multifunctionality. These results imply that (i) the return of a megaherbivore can exert strong effects on coastal ecosystem functions and multifunctionality, (ii) conservation efforts that are skewed toward megaherbivores, but ignore their key drivers like predators or habitat, will likely result in overgrazing-induced loss of multifunctionality, and (iii) the multifunctionality index shows great potential as a quantitative tool to assess ecosystem performance. Considerable and rapid alterations in megaherbivore abundance (both through extinction and conservation) cause an imbalance in ecosystem functioning and substantially alter or even compromise ecosystem services that help to negate global change effects. An integrative ecosystem approach in environmental management is urgently required to protect and enhance ecosystem multifunctionality.     

Future oriented conservation: knowledge governance,uncertainty and learning

Despite significant progress in understanding climate risks, adaptation efforts in biodiversity conservation remain limited. Adaptation requires addressing immediate conservation threats while also attending to long term, highly uncertain and potentially transformative future changes. To date, conservation research has focused more on projecting climate impacts and identifying possible strategies, rather than understanding how governance enables or constrains adaptation actions. We outline an approach to future-oriented conservation that combines the capacities to anticipate future ecological change; to understand the implications of that change for social, political and ecological values; and the ability to engage with the governance (and politics) of adaptation. Our approach builds on the adaptive management and governance literature, however we explicitly address the (often contested) rules, knowledge and values that enable or constrain adaptation. We call for a broader focus that extends beyond technical approaches to acknowledge the socio-political challenges inherent to adaptation. More importantly, we suggest that conservation policy makers and practitioners can use this approach to facilitate learning and adaptation in the context of complexity, transformational change and uncertainty.     

Detecting the macroevolutionary signal of species interactions

Species interactions lie at the heart of many theories of macroevolution, from adaptive radiation to the Red Queen. Although some theories describe the imprint that interactions will have over long timescales, we are still missing a comprehensive understanding of the effects of interactions on macroevolution. Current research shows strong evidence for the impact of interactions on macroevolutionary patterns of trait evolution and diversification, yet many macroevolutionary studies have only a tenuous relationship to ecological studies of interactions over shorter timescales. We review current research in this area, highlighting approaches that explicitly model species interactions and connect them to broad‐scale macroevolutionary patterns. We also suggest that progress has been made by taking an integrative interdisciplinary look at individual clades. We focus on African cichlids as a case study of how this approach can be fruitful. Overall, although the evidence for species interactions shaping macroevolution is strong, further work using integrative and model‐based approaches is needed to spur progress towards understanding the complex dynamics that structure communities over time and space.     

Applying QTL analysis to conservation genetics

Both analytical and molecular tools currently exist that can be used to prolifically apply quantitative trait loci (QTL) analysis to the study of natural populations. In this communication, we review and exemplify the use of QTL mapping tools and genetic modeling for conservation geneticists. We simulate populations inspired by relevant cases that can be encountered in the field and analyze them using the recently developed flexible intercross analysis (FIA) method. We then reanalyze these results with the also recently developed natural and orthogonal interactions (NOIA) model of genetic effects. Next, we further exemplify the potential of genetic modeling for the interpretation of the output of QTL analyses by reviewing studies on hybrids between wild individuals and their domesticated relatives. Based on the results here presented we emphasize several points that are pertinent in conservation genetics including (i) the advantages of FIA as a powerful tool to be applied to line crosses in which the parental lines are not inbred, (ii) the importance of obtaining estimates of genetic effects that are adequate to address the research issue under consideration, (iii) the versatility of genetic modeling, particularly NOIA, to dissect complex genetic architectures and (iv) the possibility of using currently available methods to address non-equilibrium multiallelic systems.