Multiple drivers of decline in the global status of freshwater crayfish (Decapoda: Astacidea)

Rates of biodiversity loss are higher in freshwater ecosystems than in most terrestrial or marine ecosystems, making freshwater conservation a priority. However, prioritization methods are impeded by insufficient knowledge on the distribution and conservation status of freshwater taxa, particularly invertebrates. We evaluated the extinction risk of the world''s 590 freshwater crayfish species using the IUCN Categories and Criteria and found 32% of all species are threatened with extinction. The level of extinction risk differed between families, with proportionally more threatened species in the Parastacidae and Astacidae than in the Cambaridae. Four described species were Extinct and 21% were assessed as Data Deficient. There was geographical variation in the dominant threats affecting the main centres of crayfish diversity. The majority of threatened US and Mexican species face threats associated with urban development, pollution, damming and water management. Conversely, the majority of Australian threatened species are affected by climate change, harvesting, agriculture and invasive species. Only a small proportion of crayfish are found within the boundaries of protected areas, suggesting that alternative means of long-term protection will be required. Our study highlights many of the significant challenges yet to come for freshwater biodiversity unless conservation planning shifts from a reactive to proactive approach.     

More losers than winners: investigating Anthropocene defaunation through the diversity of population trends

The global-scale decline of animal biodiversity (‘defaunation’) represents one of the most alarming consequences of human impacts on the planet. The quantification of this extinction crisis has traditionally relied on the use of IUCN Red List conservation categories assigned to each assessed species. This approach reveals that a quarter of the world's animal species are currently threatened with extinction, and ~1% have been declared extinct. However, extinctions are preceded by progressive population declines through time that leave demographic ‘footprints’ that can alert us about the trajectories of species towards extinction. Therefore, an exclusive focus on IUCN conservation categories, without consideration of dynamic population trends, may underestimate the true extent of the processes of ongoing extinctions across nature. In fact, emerging evidence (e.g. the Living Planet Report), reveals a widespread tendency for sustained demographic declines (an average 69% decline in population abundances) of species globally. Yet, animal species are not only declining. Many species worldwide exhibit stable populations, while others are even thriving. Here, using population trend data for >71,000 animal species spanning all five groups of vertebrates (mammals, birds, reptiles, amphibians and fishes) and insects, we provide a comprehensive global-scale assessment of the diversity of population trends across species undergoing not only declines, but also population stability and increases. We show a widespread global erosion of species, with 48% undergoing declines, while 49% and 3% of species currently remain stable or are increasing, respectively. Geographically, we reveal an intriguing pattern similar to that of threatened species, whereby declines tend to concentrate around tropical regions, whereas stability and increases show a tendency to expand towards temperate climates. Importantly, we find that for species currently classed by the IUCN Red List as ‘non-threatened’, 33% are declining. Critically, in contrast with previous mass extinction events, our assessment shows that the Anthropocene extinction crisis is undergoing a rapid biodiversity imbalance, with levels of declines (a symptom of extinction) greatly exceeding levels of increases (a symptom of ecological expansion and potentially of evolution) for all groups. Our study contributes a further signal indicating that global biodiversity is entering a mass extinction, with ecosystem heterogeneity and functioning, biodiversity persistence, and human well-being under increasing threat.     

Susceptibility of European freshwater fish to climate change: Species profiling based on life‐history and environmental characteristics

Climate change is expected to strongly affect freshwater fish communities. Combined with other anthropogenic drivers, the impacts may alter species spatio‐temporal distributions and contribute to population declines and local extinctions. To provide timely management and conservation of fishes, it is relevant to identify species that will be most impacted by climate change and those that will be resilient. Species traits are considered a promising source of information on characteristics that influence resilience to various environmental conditions and impacts. To this end, we collated life‐history traits and climatic niches of 443 European freshwater fish species and compared those identified as susceptible to climate change to those that are considered to be resilient. Significant differences were observed between the two groups in their distribution, life history, and climatic niche, with climate‐change‐susceptible species being distributed within the Mediterranean region, and being characterized by greater threat levels, lesser commercial relevance, lower vulnerability to fishing, smaller body and range size, and warmer thermal envelopes. Based on our results, we establish a list of species of highest priority for further research and monitoring regarding climate‐change susceptibility within Europe. The presented approach represents a promising tool to efficiently assess large groups of species regarding their susceptibility to climate change and other threats, and to identify research and management priorities.     

Larger brain size indirectly increases vulnerability to extinction in mammals

Although previous studies have addressed the question of why large brains evolved, we have limited understanding of potential beneficial or detrimental effects of enlarged brain size in the face of current threats. Using novel phylogenetic path analysis, we evaluated how brain size directly and indirectly, via its effects on life history and ecology, influences vulnerability to extinction across 474 mammalian species. We found that larger brains, controlling for body size, indirectly increase vulnerability to extinction by extending the gestation period, increasing weaning age, and limiting litter sizes. However, we found no evidence of direct, beneficial, or detrimental effects of brain size on vulnerability to extinction, even when we explicitly considered the different types of threats that lead to vulnerability. Order‐specific analyses revealed qualitatively similar patterns for Carnivora and Artiodactyla. Interestingly, for Primates, we found that larger brain size was directly (and indirectly) associated with increased vulnerability to extinction. Our results indicate that under current conditions, the constraints on life history imposed by large brains outweigh the potential benefits, undermining the resilience of the studied mammals. Contrary to the selective forces that have favored increased brain size throughout evolutionary history, at present, larger brains have become a burden for mammals.     

Ecology,conservation status,and phylogenetic placement of endemic Pristimantis frogs (Anura: Craugastoridae) in Trinidad and Tobago and genetic affinities to northern Venezuela

Trinidad and Tobago are home to three endemic species in the anuran genus Pristimantis, of which two (Pristimantis charlottevillensis and Pristimantis turpinorum) occur in Tobago alone and the third (Pristimantis urichi) is present on both islands. Earlier, the IUCN assessed the conservation status of these species as: P. urichi, Endangered (EN); P. charlottevillensis, Least Concern (LC); P. turpinorum, Vulnerable (VU). However, these assessments were based on very little field-based evidence. Here, we present survey results which contributed to reassessments as LC, VU and Data Deficient for these three species, respectively. Despite the close proximity of Trinidad to northern Venezuela, the islands do not share any Pristimantis species with the mainland, which holds a rich endemicity of Pristimantis regionally. In this study, we used genetic sequencing from several island populations and compared them to northern Venezuelan endemics to assess genetic divergence for the first time. The time tree analyses found that only the northern Tobago species P. turpinorum is closely related to mainland Pristimantis, with a genetic split dating to the Late Miocene, suggesting a vicariant event of mainland and island species. Pristimantis urichi, although identical between the two islands, remains highly divergent from the mainland species. Similar results were found for P. charlottevillensis. In addition, there was a high level of divergence between P. urichi and P. charlottevillensis. These findings indicate different island colonization events by different lineages. Sequencing other Venezuelan species remains pivotal to unravel the complexity of the colonization episodes in the region, likely influenced by the changing topography and multiple connection and isolation episodes of the islands by eustatic sea-level changes.     

Clarifying the relationship between body size and extinction risk in amphibians by complete mapping of model space

In vertebrates, large body size is often a key diagnostic feature of species threatened with extinction. However, in amphibians the link between body size and extinction risk is highly uncertain, with previous studies suggesting positive, negative, u-shaped, or no relationship. Part of the reason for this uncertainty is ‘researcher degrees of freedom’: the subjectivity and selectivity in choices associated with specifying and fitting models. Here, I clarify the size–threat association in amphibians using Specification Curve Analysis, an analytical approach from the social sciences that attempts to minimize this problem by complete mapping of model space. I find strong support for prevailing negative associations between body size and threat status, the opposite of patterns typical in other vertebrates. This pattern is largely explained by smaller species having smaller geographic ranges, but smaller amphibian species also appear to lack some of the life-history advantages (e.g. higher reproductive output) that are often assumed to ‘protect’ small species in other taxa. These results highlight the need for a renewed conservation focus on the smallest species of the world''s most threatened class of vertebrates, as aquatic habitats become increasingly degraded by human activity.     

江苏珍稀濒危植物的多样性、分布及保护

掌握重点保护野生植物的濒危现状及评估濒危等级是制定科学保护策略的关键。根据江苏第二次重点保护野生植物资源调查(2012-2018)以及近年来相关调查资料, 我们采用世界自然保护联盟(IUCN)物种红色名录的濒危等级与评估标准, 对江苏分布的珍稀濒危植物的现状与濒危等级进行了评估与分析。结果表明: (1)江苏41种国家重点保护和濒危野生植物的濒危等级可以分为7个等级。包括地区灭绝(RE) 2种, 占总种数的4.88%; 极危(CR) 10种, 占24.39%; 濒危(EN) 6种, 占14.63%; 易危(VU) 13种, 占31.71%; 近危(NT) 2种, 占4.88%; 无危(LC) 2种, 占4.88%; 数据缺乏(DD) 6种, 占14.63%。其中, 受威胁物种(包括CR、EN和VU)有29种, 占总种数的70.73%。(2)建议的江苏重点保护野生植物有74种, 隶属于40科62属; 它们的受威胁比例较高, 达74.32%。江苏人口众多、环境资源压力较大, 近年来生产经营和土地利用方式的改变以及宣传教育不足很可能是导致这些原生物种濒危的主要原因。因此建议: (1)尽快制定江苏省级重点保护野生植物名录; (2)加强科学研究, 同时对部分濒危植物进行就地保护和迁地保护, 积极开展野外回归、近地保护和动态监测; (3)继续加大对重点保护野生植物的保护管理和宣传力度。     

The conservation status and population decline of the African penguin deconstructed in space and time

Understanding changes in abundance is crucial for conservation, but population growth rates often vary over space and time. We use 40 years of count data (1979–2019) and Bayesian state‐space models to assess the African penguin Spheniscus demersus population under IUCN Red List Criterion A. We deconstruct the overall decline in time and space to identify where urgent conservation action is needed. The global African penguin population met the threshold for Endangered with a high probability (97%), having declined by almost 65% since 1989. An historical low of ~17,700 pairs bred in 2019. Annual changes were faster in the South African population (?4.2%, highest posterior density interval, HPDI: ?7.8 to ?0.6%) than the Namibian one (?0.3%, HPDI: ?3.3 to +2.6%), and since 1999 were almost ?10% at South African colonies north of Cape Town. Over the 40‐year period, the Eastern Cape colonies went from holding ~25% of the total penguin population to ~40% as numbers decreased more rapidly elsewhere. These changes coincided with an altered abundance and availability of the main prey of African penguins. Our results underline the dynamic nature of population declines in space as well as time and highlight which penguin colonies require urgent conservation attention.     

The Sampled Red List Index for Plants,phase II: ground-truthing specimen-based conservation assessments

The IUCN Sampled Red List Index (SRLI) is a policy response by biodiversity scientists to the need to estimate trends in extinction risk of the world''s diminishing biological diversity. Assessments of plant species for the SRLI project rely predominantly on herbarium specimen data from natural history collections, in the overwhelming absence of accurate population data or detailed distribution maps for the vast majority of plant species. This creates difficulties in re-assessing these species so as to measure genuine changes in conservation status, which must be observed under the same Red List criteria in order to be distinguished from an increase in the knowledge available for that species, and thus re-calculate the SRLI. However, the same specimen data identify precise localities where threatened species have previously been collected and can be used to model species ranges and to target fieldwork in order to test specimen-based range estimates and collect population data for SRLI plant species. Here, we outline a strategy for prioritizing fieldwork efforts in order to apply a wider range of IUCN Red List criteria to assessments of plant species, or any taxa with detailed locality or natural history specimen data, to produce a more robust estimation of the SRLI.     

Bryophyte conservation on a North Atlantic hotspot: threatened bryophytes in Madeira and Selvagens Archipelagos (Portugal)

On oceanic islands, the evolution of plants and animals with particular characteristics is favoured due to their isolation, populations normally comprising a large number of unique, endemic species. The Madeira and Selvagens archipelagos are considered biodiversity hotspots, containing an especially rich bryoflora. Due to its characteristically small size, this taxonomic group does not get much attention in conservation programmes. However, these plants are an important component of terrestrial ecosystems, representing a major part of biodiversity and playing a vital role in the ecosystem's functioning. As such, the development of the first Red List for Madeira and Selvagens Archipelagos has the potential to guide conservation efforts focused on taxa and habitats where threatened species and endemics are better represented. By applying the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources (IUCN) criteria, recently revised to apply to small islands, it was possible to obtain the percentage of threatened taxa present in the archipelagos (23.6%), and for each habitat type. It was verified that high mountain habitats and the Laurel forest represent areas that host higher percentages of threatened taxa (29.5% and 22.2%). An important result of the present Red List is the identification of hotspots for bryophyte diversity, supporting the definition of reserves/microreserves. The information obtained can also be linked up with the Red Lists of other taxonomic groups to work towards the definition of a more holistic conservation strategy.     

Potential impacts of future land use and climate change on the Red List status of the Proteaceae in the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa

Using spatial predictions of future threats to biodiversity, we assessed for the first time the relative potential impacts of future land use and climate change on the threat status of plant species. We thus estimated how many taxa could be affected by future threats that are usually not included in current IUCN Red List assessments. Here, we computed the Red List status including future threats of 227 Proteaceae taxa endemic to the Cape Floristic Region, South Africa, and compared this with their Red List status excluding future threats. We developed eight different land use and climate change scenarios for the year 2020, providing a range of best‐ to worst‐case scenarios. Four scenarios include only the effects of future land use change, while the other four also include the impacts of projected anthropogenic climate change (HadCM2 IS92a GGa), using niche‐based models. Up to a third of the 227 Proteaceae taxa are uplisted (become more threatened) by up to three threat categories if future threats as predicted for 2020 are included, and the proportion of threatened Proteaceae taxa rises on average by 9% (range 2–16%), depending on the scenario. With increasing severity of the scenarios, the proportion of Critically Endangered taxa increases from about 1% to 7% and almost 2% of the 227 Proteaceae taxa become Extinct because of climate change. Overall, climate change has the most severe effects on the Proteaceae, but land use change also severely affects some taxa. Most of the threatened taxa occur in low‐lying coastal areas, but the proportion of threatened taxa changes considerably in inland mountain areas if future threats are included. Our approach gives important insights into how, where and when future threats could affect species persistence and can in a sense be seen as a test of the value of planned interventions for conservation.     

基于标本和分布信息评估中国虾脊兰属 植物的濒危状况

兰科植物是生物多样性保护的旗舰类群之一, 但如何客观准确地评估兰科植物的濒危状况, 一直是生物多样性保护中急需解决的问题。本文以中国虾脊兰属(Calanthe)植物为例, 探讨了基于馆藏标本和野外分布信息进行兰科植物红色名录濒危等级评估的利弊。我们的研究表明, 馆藏标本能够比较客观地反映物种地理分布信息和相应的野外居群状况, 但对于物种分布的历史变化和受威胁因素反映不足; 而野外工作对于物种的实际分布状况和受威胁因素等的反映比较客观, 但能发现的物种和居群数量有限, 部分极小种群物种在短时间野外工作中很难发现。我们的研究认为, 有2种虾脊兰属植物应被评估为野外灭绝(EW), 16种应被评估为极度濒危(CR)。可见, 中国虾脊兰属植物濒危的状况远比前人的评估结果要严重得多。     

Response to De Silva et al. (2007): Endemic freshwater finfish of Asia: distribution and conservation status

De Silva et al . (2007) present an overview of the distribution and conservation status of the endemic freshwater fish of Asia. Within that review they use data from the IUCN Red List of Threatened Species™ (2006) to conduct an analysis of the conservation status of those endemic fish species. Their analysis is incorrect and provides a very misleading impression of the level of threat to Asian freshwater fish and to freshwater fish at the global scale. The errors stem from a misinterpretation of the data presented on the IUCN Red List. The sources of errors are discussed below and the opportunity is taken to clarify what the information on the IUCN Red List represents.     

The status and conservation of the Cape Gannet Morus capensis

The Cape Gannet Morus capensis is one of several seabird species endemic to the Benguela upwelling ecosystem (BUS) but whose population has recently decreased, leading to an unfavourable IUCN Red List assessment. Application of ‘JARA’ (‘Just Another Red-List Assessment,’ a Bayesian state-space tool used for IUCN Red List assessments) to updated information on the areas occupied by Cape Gannets and the nest densities of breeding birds at their six colonies, suggested that the species should be classified as Vulnerable. However, the rate of decrease of Cape Gannets in their most-recent generation exceeded that of the previous generation, primarily as a result of large decreases at Bird Island, Lambert’s Bay, and Malgas Island, off South Africa’s west coast (the western part of their range). Since the 1960s, there has been an ongoing redistribution of the species from northwest to southeast around southern Africa, and ～70% of the population now occurs on the south coast of South Africa, at Bird Island in Algoa Bay, on the eastern border of the BUS. Recruitment rather than adult survival may be limiting the present population; however, information on the seabird’s demographic parameters and mortality in fisheries is lacking for colonies in the northern part of the BUS. Presently, major threats to Cape Gannet include: substantially decreased availability of their preferred prey in the west; heavy mortalities of eggs, chicks and fledglings at and around colonies, inflicted by Cape Fur Seals Arctocephalus pusillus and other seabirds; substantial disturbance at colonies caused by Cape Fur Seals attacking adult gannets ashore; oiling; and disease.     

Integrating bioclimate with population models to improve forecasts of species extinctions under climate change

Climate change is already affecting species worldwide, yet existing methods of risk assessment have not considered interactions between demography and climate and their simultaneous effect on habitat distribution and population viability. To address this issue, an international workshop was held at the University of Adelaide in Australia, 25–29 May 2009, bringing leading species distribution and population modellers together with plant ecologists. Building on two previous workshops in the UK and Spain, the participants aimed to develop methodological standards and case studies for integrating bioclimatic and metapopulation models, to provide more realistic forecasts of population change, habitat fragmentation and extinction risk under climate change. The discussions and case studies focused on several challenges, including spatial and temporal scale contingencies, choice of predictive climate, land use, soil type and topographic variables, procedures for ensemble forecasting of both global climate and bioclimate models and developing demographic structures that are realistic and species-specific and yet allow generalizations of traits that make species vulnerable to climate change. The goal is to provide general guidelines for assessing the Red-List status of large numbers of species potentially at risk, owing to the interactions of climate change with other threats such as habitat destruction, overexploitation and invasive species.