Resilience of marine turtle regional management units to climate change

Enhancing species resilience to changing environmental conditions is often suggested as a climate change adaptation strategy. To effectively achieve this, it is necessary first to understand the factors that determine species resilience, and their relative importance in shaping the ability of species to adjust to the complexities of environmental change. This is an extremely challenging task because it requires comprehensive information on species traits. We explored the resilience of 58 marine turtle regional management units (RMUs) to climate change, encompassing all seven species of marine turtles worldwide. We used expert opinion from the IUCN‐SSC Marine Turtle Specialist Group (n = 33 respondents) to develop a Resilience Index, which considered qualitative characteristics of each RMU (relative population size, rookery vulnerability, and genetic diversity) and non climate‐related threats (fisheries, take, coastal development, and pollution/pathogens). Our expert panel perceived rookery vulnerability (the likelihood of functional rookeries becoming extirpated) and non climate‐related threats as having the greatest influence on resilience of RMUs to climate change. We identified the world's 13 least resilient marine turtle RMUs to climate change, which are distributed within all three major ocean basins and include six of the world's seven species of marine turtle. Our study provides the first look at inter‐ and intra‐species variation in resilience to climate change and highlights the need to devise metrics that measure resilience directly. We suggest that this approach can be widely used to help prioritize future actions that increase species resilience to climate change.     

Climate change and sea turtles: a 150-year reconstruction of incubation temperatures at a major marine turtle rookery

Sea turtles show temperature dependent sex determination. Using an empirical relationship between sand and air temperature, we reconstructed the nest temperatures since 1855 at Ascension Island, a major green turtle (Chelonia mydas) rookery. Our results show that inter‐beach thermal variations, previously ascribed to the albedo of the sand, which varies hugely from one beach to another, have persisted for the last century. Reconstructed nest temperatures varied by only 0.5 °C on individual beaches over the course of the nesting season, while the temperature difference between two key nesting beaches was always around 3 °C. Hence inter‐beach thermal variations are the main factor causing a large range of incubation temperatures at this rookery. There was a general warming trend for nests, with a mean increase in reconstructed nest temperatures for different months of between 0.36 and 0.49 °C for the last 100 years.     

Tetranucleotide microsatellites from the loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta)

We describe primers and polymerase chain reaction conditions to amplify 15 tetranucleotide microsatellite loci from the loggerhead sea turtle (Caretta caretta). The primers were tested on 30 individuals that nested along the Georgia, USA coast. The primer pairs developed in this study yielded an average of 13.9 alleles per locus (range of 10–21), an average observed heterozygosity of 0.91 (range 0.79–1.00), and an average polymorphic information content of 0.88 (range 0.84–0.92).     

Molecular resolution of marine turtle stock composition in fishery bycatch: a case study in the Mediterranean

Based on an extensive sampling regime from both nesting populations and bycatch, frequency analyses of mitochondrial (mt) DNA control region haplotypes in the Mediterranean were used to assess the genetic structure and stock composition of the loggerhead sea turtle, Caretta caretta, in different marine fisheries. The analyses show the following. (i) In drifting longline fisheries working in Mediterranean pelagic habitats 53–55% of turtles caught originated from the Mediterranean stock; (ii) In bottom-trawl fisheries all turtle bycatch is derived from this regional stock; (iii) This regional stock contribution to fishery bycatch suggests that the population size of the Mediterranean loggerhead nesting population is significantly larger than previously thought. This is consistent with a recent holistic estimate based on the discovery of a large rookery in Libya. (iv) Present impact of fishery-related mortality on the Mediterranean nesting population is probably incompatible with its long-term conservation. Sea turtle conservation regulations are urgently needed for the Mediterranean fisheries. (v) The significant divergence of mtDNA haplotype frequencies of the Turkish loggerhead colonies define this nesting population as a particularly important management unit. Large immature and adult stages from this management unit seem to be harvested predominantly by Egyptian fisheries. (vi) Combined with other data, our findings suggest that all the nesting populations in the Mediterranean should be considered as management units sharing immature pelagic habitats throughout the Mediterranean (and possibly the eastern Atlantic), with distinct and more localized benthic feeding habitats in the eastern basin used by large immatures and adults. (vii) Between the strict oceanic pelagic and the benthic stages, immature turtles appear to live through an intermediate neritic stage, in which they switch between pelagic and benthic foods.     

Multiple paternity in loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) nests on Melbourne Beach, Florida: a microsatellite analysis

Many aspects of sea turtle biology are difficult to measure in these enigmatic migratory species, and this lack of knowledge continues to hamper conservation efforts. The first study of paternity in a sea turtle species used allozyme analysis to suggest multiple paternity in loggerhead turtle (Caretta caretta) clutches in Australia. Subsequent studies indicated that the frequency of multiple paternity varies from species to species and perhaps location to location. This study examined fine-scale population structure and paternal contribution to loggerhead clutches on Melbourne Beach, FL, USA using microsatellite markers. Mothers and offspring from 70 nests collected at two locations were analysed using two to four polymorphic microsatellite loci. Fine-scale population differentiation was not evident between the sampled locations, separated by 8 km. Multiple paternity was common in loggerhead nests on Melbourne Beach; 22 of 70 clutches had more than one father, and six had more than two fathers. This is the first time that more than two fathers have been detected for offspring in individual sea turtle nests. Paternal genotypes could not be assigned with confidence in clutches with more than two fathers, leaving the question of male philopatry unanswered. Given the high incidence of multiple paternity, we conclude that males are not a limiting resource for this central Florida nesting aggregate.     

The potential impacts of global climate change on marine protected areas

The potential effects of global climate changeon marine protected areas do not appear to havebeen addressed in the literature. This paperexamines the literature on protected areas,conservation biology, marine ecology,oceanography, and climate change, and reviewssome of the relevant differences between marineand terrestrial environments. Frameworks andclassifications systems used in protected areadesign are discussed. Finally, a frameworkthat summarizes some of the importantoceanographic processes and their links to thefood chain are reviewed. Species abundance anddistribution are expected to change as a resultof global climate change, potentiallycompromising the efficacy of marine protectedareas as biodiversity conservation tools. Thisreview suggests the need for: furtherinterdisciplinary research and the use oflinked models; an increase in marine protectedareas for biodiversity conservation and asresearch sites for teasing apart fishingeffects from climate effects; a temporallyresponsive approach to siting new marineprotected areas, shifting their locations ifnecessary; and large-scale ecosystem/integratedmanagement approaches to address the competinguses of the oceans and boundary-less threatssuch as global climate change and pollution.     

Estimating the Effect of Beach Nourishment on Caretta caretta (Loggerhead Sea Turtle) Nesting

Caretta caretta (loggerhead sea turtle) nesting activity was recorded daily during three seasons prior to and two seasons immediately following a beach nourishment (replenishment) project in Palm Beach County, Florida. Surveys were done at the nourished beach (Jupiter/Carlin) and at two natural beaches (Juno and Tequesta). The size of the nourishment effect on nesting activity was estimated using Before‐After‐Control‐Impact Paired Series (BACIPS) models. Nesting declined by 4.4 to 5.4 nests km ^{? 1} day ^{? 1} on the nourished beach compared to the two natural beaches in the first season after nourishment. At the same time, false crawls (FC, non‐nesting crawls) increased by 5.0 to 5.6 FC km ^{? 1} day ^{? 1} on the nourished beach. In the second season following nourishment, nesting was reduced by 0.5 to 1.6 nests km ^{? 1} day ^{? 1} on the nourished beach compared to the two natural beaches. The increase in false crawl frequency in the second season following nourishment was 0.7 to 0.9 FC km ^{? 1} day ^{? 1}.These results suggest that beach nourishment significantly decreased loggerhead sea turtle nesting during the first season following the project. However, the size of the effect, in terms of nesting frequency and false crawl frequency, was much reduced by the second season following nourishment.     

A retrospective analysis of sea turtle nest depredation patterns

Nest predation can significantly reduce hatchling recruitment in sea turtle populations. We examined 20 yr of data from Canaveral National Seashore, Florida, which has pristine and altered beaches. We used chi-squared test to determine if secondary predation events were related to the nests' primary predation events, and proportional hazard regression analysis to determine the relative risk of individual nest predation. To determine if human beach use and nest predation risk were spatially or temporally linked, we ranked human beach use and examined predation frequency across all screened and marked nests. We found that once a nest has experienced predation it has an increased likelihood of experiencing a subsequent predation event when compared to other nests on the beach. Primary and multiple predation events occurred with greater frequency in limited beach use areas and with lowest frequency in moderate use areas. Predation risk decreased by an average of 29.5% from 2000 to 2008, relative to the initial year of study. Nests deposited mid-season were 9.8% more likely to be predated than early or late season nests. We conclude that where anti-nest predator management efforts are required but restricted (e.g., by funds, available personnel, or multiple management goals) resources should be concentrated to protect mid-season nests and those in limited access areas, if enhancing hatchling numbers is a management goal. © 2012 The Wildlife Society.     

Climate change resilience of a globally important sea turtle nesting population

Few studies have looked into climate change resilience of populations of wild animals. We use a model higher vertebrate, the green sea turtle, as its life history is fundamentally affected by climatic conditions, including temperature‐dependent sex determination and obligate use of beaches subject to sea level rise (SLR). We use empirical data from a globally important population in West Africa to assess resistance to climate change within a quantitative framework. We project 200 years of primary sex ratios (1900–2100) and create a digital elevation model of the nesting beach to estimate impacts of projected SLR. Primary sex ratio is currently almost balanced, with 52% of hatchlings produced being female. Under IPCC models, we predict: (a) an increase in the proportion of females by 2100 to 76%–93%, but cooler temperatures, both at the end of the nesting season and in shaded areas, will guarantee male hatchling production; (b) IPCC SLR scenarios will lead to 33.4%–43.0% loss of the current nesting area; (c) climate change will contribute to population growth through population feminization, with 32%–64% more nesting females expected by 2120; (d) as incubation temperatures approach lethal levels, however, the population will cease growing and start to decline. Taken together with other factors (degree of foraging plasticity, rookery size and trajectory, and prevailing threats), this nesting population should resist climate change until 2100, and the availability of spatial and temporal microrefugia indicates potential for resilience to predicted impacts, through the evolution of nest site selection or changes in nesting phenology. This represents the most comprehensive assessment to date of climate change resilience of a marine reptile using the most up‐to‐date IPCC models, appraising the impacts of temperature and SLR, integrated with additional ecological and demographic parameters. We suggest this as a framework for other populations, species and taxa.     

A potential tool to mitigate the impacts of climate change to the caribbean leatherback sea turtle

It is now well understood that climate change has the potential to dramatically affect biodiversity, with effects on spatio‐temporal distribution patterns, trophic relationships and survivorship. In the marine turtles, sex is determined by incubation temperature, such that warming temperatures could lead to a higher production of female hatchlings. By measuring nest temperature, and using a model to relate the incubation temperature to sex ratio, we estimate that Caribbean Colombian leatherback sea turtles currently produce approximately 92% female hatchlings. We modelled the relationship between incubation, sand and air temperature, and under all future climate change scenarios (0.4–6.0 °C warming over the next 100 years), complete feminization could occur, as soon as the next decade. However, male producing refugia exist in the periphery of smaller nests (0.7 °C cooler at the bottom than at the centre), within beaches (0.3 °C cooler in the vegetation line and inter‐tidal zone) and between beaches (0.4 °C higher on dark beaches), and these natural refugia could be assigned preferential conservation status. However, there exists a need to develop strategies that may ameliorate deleterious effects of climate‐induced temperature changes in the future. We experimentally shaded clutches using screening material, and found that it was effective in reducing nest temperature, producing a higher proportion of male hatchlings, without compromising the fitness or hatching success. Artificial shade in hatcheries is a very useful and simple tool in years or periods of high environmental temperatures. Nevertheless, this is only an emergency response to the severe impacts that will eventually have to be reversed if we are to guarantee the stability of the populations.     

Historical perspectives on population genetics and conservation of three marine turtle species

Considerable phylogeographic and population genetic research has been conducted on marine turtles. Less attention, however, has been paid to the historical patterns and processes that have led to present patterns of genetic structure, and particularly, how these populations have responded to major climatic changes in the past. To address these questions, we analyzed previously published mitochondrial haplotype data independently for three marine turtle species, the loggerhead (Caretta caretta), hawksbill (Eretmochelys imbricata), and green turtle (Chelonia mydas). Considering all three species, we conducted analyses on a total of 657 individuals from 36 nesting beaches in the Atlantic and Mediterranean. Our results suggest that much of the contemporary genetic structure has been significantly affected by complex patterns of historical population subdivision, long-distance dispersal, and restricted geneflow. These inferences also imply that the climatic and sea level fluctuations during the Pleistocene may have had contrasting effects on genetic structure (e.g., fragmenting versus homogenizing) and on population sizes. Estimates of historical and current effective population sizes further highlight differential demographic responses across species to historical climatic cycles. Collectively, our results provide evidence for the occurrence of historical refugia through climatic cycles and complex historical metapopulation dynamics, and identify common and unique patterns of metapopulation structure across species. These historical patterns provide a basis for predictive estimates of metapopulation responses to habitat loss, population extirpation, and global climatic change.     

Forecasting the viability of sea turtle eggs in a warming world

Animals living in tropical regions may be at increased risk from climate change because current temperatures at these locations already approach critical physiological thresholds. Relatively small temperature increases could cause animals to exceed these thresholds more often, resulting in substantial fitness costs or even death. Oviparous species could be especially vulnerable because the maximum thermal tolerances of incubating embryos is often lower than adult counterparts, and in many species mothers abandon the eggs after oviposition, rendering them immobile and thus unable to avoid extreme temperatures. As a consequence, the effects of climate change might become evident earlier and be more devastating for hatchling production in the tropics. Loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) have the widest nesting range of any living reptile, spanning temperate to tropical latitudes in both hemispheres. Currently, loggerhead sea turtle populations in the tropics produce nearly 30% fewer hatchlings per nest than temperate populations. Strong correlations between empirical hatching success and habitat quality allowed global predictions of the spatiotemporal impacts of climate change on this fitness trait. Under climate change, many sea turtle populations nesting in tropical environments are predicted to experience severe reductions in hatchling production, whereas hatching success in many temperate populations could remain unchanged or even increase with rising temperatures. Some populations could show very complex responses to climate change, with higher relative hatchling production as temperatures begin to increase, followed by declines as critical physiological thresholds are exceeded more frequently. Predicting when, where, and how climate change could impact the reproductive output of local populations is crucial for anticipating how a warming world will influence population size, growth, and stability.     

Impacts of a geotextile container dune core on marine turtle nesting in Juno Beach,Florida, United States

Hard armoring technologies (e.g. rock revetments and seawalls), which are installed to protect homes from beach erosion, can diminish the aesthetics and amenity of the beach. Over time, these structures cause beach narrowing and often prevent marine turtle access to nesting habitat altogether. An alternative armoring technology, known as geotextile dune core systems (or geocores), has been developed and implemented to protect inland infrastructure from beach erosion, yet there remains an absence of research on possible effects on marine turtles. In this study, we examined the impacts of a geocore installed on Juno Beach, Florida, United States in February 2014 on loggerhead (Caretta caretta) and green turtle (Chelonia mydas) nesting success, hatching success, and emergence success. A before‐after‐control‐impact paired series design evaluated the difference in nesting success per week for the impact and control sites 4 years before (2010–2013) and 4 years after (2014–2017) the installation of the geocore. Neither loggerhead nor green turtle nesting success was significantly different after the installation of the geocore; however, when analyzing loggerhead crawls that came to within 5 m of the geotextile bags, nesting success decreased. Neither hatching nor emergence success was significantly different after the installation of the geocore for either species. Our results suggest that geocores may minimally affect loggerhead and green turtles and provide a suitable restoration technique for homeowners facing beach erosion.     

Nuclear markers reveal a complex introgression pattern among marine turtle species on the Brazilian coast

Surprisingly, a high frequency of interspecific sea turtle hybrids has been previously recorded in a nesting site along a short stretch of the Brazilian coast. Mitochondrial DNA data indicated that as much as 43% of the females identified as Eretmochelys imbricata are hybrids in this area (Bahia State of Brazil). It is a remarkable find, because most of the nesting sites surveyed worldwide, including some in northern Brazil, presents no hybrids, and rare Caribbean sites present no more than 2% of hybrids. Thus, a detailed understanding of the hybridization process is needed to evaluate natural or anthropogenic causes of this regional phenomenon in Brazil, which could be an important factor affecting the conservation of this population. We analysed a set of 12 nuclear markers to investigate the pattern of hybridization involving three species of sea turtles: hawksbill (E. imbricata), loggerhead (Caretta caretta) and olive ridley (Lepidochelys olivacea). Our data indicate that most of the individuals in the crossings L. olivacea × E. imbricata and L. olivacea × C. caretta are F1 hybrids, whereas C. caretta × E. imbricata crossings present F1 and backcrosses with both parental species. In addition, the C. caretta × E. imbricata hybridization seems to be gender and species biased, and we also found one individual with evidence of multispecies hybridization among C. caretta × E. imbricata × Chelonia mydas. The overall results also indicate that hybridization in this area is a recent phenomenon, spanning at least two generations or ～40 years.     

Extreme rainfall events and cooling of sea turtle clutches: Implications in the face of climate warming

Understanding how climate change impacts species and ecosystems is integral to conservation. When studying impacts of climate change, warming temperatures are a research focus, with much less attention given to extreme weather events and their impacts. Here, we show how localized, extreme rainfall events can have a major impact on a species that is endangered in many parts of its range. We report incubation temperatures from the world's largest green sea turtle rookery, during a breeding season when two extreme rainfall events occurred. Rainfall caused nest temperatures to drop suddenly and the maximum drop in temperature for each rain‐induced cooling averaged 3.6°C (n = 79 nests, min = 1.0°C, max = 7.4°C). Since green sea turtles have temperature‐dependent sex determination, with low incubation temperatures producing males, such major rainfall events may have a masculinization effect on primary sex ratios. Therefore, in some cases, extreme rainfall events may provide a “get‐out‐of‐jail‐free card” to avoid complete feminization of turtle populations as climate warming continues.     

Turtle mating patterns buffer against disruptive effects of climate change

For organisms with temperature-dependent sex determination (TSD), skewed offspring sex ratios are common. However, climate warming poses the unique threat of producing extreme sex ratio biases that could ultimately lead to population extinctions. In marine turtles, highly female-skewed hatchling sex ratios already occur and predicted increases in global temperatures are expected to exacerbate this trend, unless species can adapt. However, it is not known whether offspring sex ratios persist into adulthood, or whether variation in male mating success intensifies the impact of a shortage of males on effective population size. Here, we use parentage analysis to show that in a rookery of the endangered green turtle (Chelonia mydas), despite an offspring sex ratio of 95 per cent females, there were at least 1.4 reproductive males to every breeding female. Our results suggest that male reproductive intervals may be shorter than the 2-4 years typical for females, and/or that males move between aggregations of receptive females, an inference supported by our satellite tracking, which shows that male turtles may visit multiple rookeries. We suggest that male mating patterns have the potential to buffer the disruptive effects of climate change on marine turtle populations, many of which are already seriously threatened.     

Determining climate change impacts on ecosystems: the role of palaeontology

Climate change is projected to change the ecosystems on land and in the sea at rates that are unprecedented for millions of years. The most commonly used approach to derive projections of how ecosystems will look in the future are experiments on living organisms. By their nature, experiments are unlike the real world and cannot capture the ability of organisms to migrate, select and evolve. They are often limited to a select few species and drivers of environmental change and hence cannot represent the complexity of interactions in ‘real’ ecosystems. The fossil record is an archive of responses to climate change at a global ecosystem scale. If, and only if, fossil assemblage variation is combined with independent information of environmental changes, sensitives of species or higher taxa to a specific magnitude of change of an environmental driver can be determined and used to inform future vulnerabilities of this species to the same driver. While records are often fragmented, there are time intervals which, when thoroughly analysed with quantitative data, can provide valuable insights into the future of biodiversity on this planet. This review provides an overview of projected impacts on marine ecosystems including: (1) the range of neontological methods, observations and their challenges; and (2) the complementary information that palaeontologists can contribution to this global challenge. I advocate that, in collaborations with other disciplines, we should aim for a strong visibility of our field and the knowledge it can provide for policy relevant assessments of the future.     

The impacts of climate change in coastal marine systems

Anthropogenically induced global climate change has profound implications for marine ecosystems and the economic and social systems that depend upon them. The relationship between temperature and individual performance is reasonably well understood, and much climate-related research has focused on potential shifts in distribution and abundance driven directly by temperature. However, recent work has revealed that both abiotic changes and biological responses in the ocean will be substantially more complex. For example, changes in ocean chemistry may be more important than changes in temperature for the performance and survival of many organisms. Ocean circulation, which drives larval transport, will also change, with important consequences for population dynamics. Furthermore, climatic impacts on one or a few 'leverage species' may result in sweeping community-level changes. Finally, synergistic effects between climate and other anthropogenic variables, particularly fishing pressure, will likely exacerbate climate-induced changes. Efforts to manage and conserve living marine systems in the face of climate change will require improvements to the existing predictive framework. Key directions for future research include identifying key demographic transitions that influence population dynamics, predicting changes in the community-level impacts of ecologically dominant species, incorporating populations' ability to evolve (adapt), and understanding the scales over which climate will change and living systems will respond.     

Only some like it hot — quantifying the environmental niche of the loggerhead sea turtle

Although the Atlantic waters of North America support hundreds of thousands of loggerhead sea turtles ( Caretta caretta ), remarkably little is known regarding their migratory ecology and habitat use. We integrate satellite tracking with remotely sensed oceanographic data to uncover two different migratory strategies used by loggerhead turtles at the northern part of their range. Most turtles travelled from the nesting beach to forage at higher latitudes in summer, before migrating south to wintering grounds in the autumn. Others moved south after nesting to forage for up to 514 days and did not make an autumn migration. Both groups utilized warm waters at the very edge of the Gulf Stream during winter: for southerly turtles obviating seasonal migration, and for northerly turtles minimizing the distance, time and energy required to reach northern areas for subsequent foraging seasons, avoiding lethally cold winter temperatures in inshore waters at the same latitude, and reducing energy costs that would be incurred within the fast-flowing Gulf Stream. Females made long resting dives of up to 7 h 24 min, effectively hibernating during the colder months. Offshore federal waters of the USA constitute a more important habitat for both foraging and wintering turtles than previously appreciated. These areas are potential hotspots for interaction with fisheries and proposed US military training activities and should receive special monitoring efforts to fully assess the extent of overlap.