Cervical cancers diagnosed after negative results on cervical cytology: perspective in the 1980s.

OBJECTIVES--To assess the magnitude of the problem of interval cancers of the cervix (those that are diagnosed within a short time after negative screening test results) in the 1980s, to compare the nature of interval cancers in younger women with that in older women, and, by reviewing negative cervical smears, to determine the proportion of interval cancers that might represent the development of malignancy anew compared with the proportion that might be associated with difficulties in sampling or errors in reporting. DESIGN--An audit of the interval cases of cervical cancer that had been diagnosed within 36 months of a smear having been reported as negative by the Victorian Cytology Gynaecological Service among women registered with cervical cancer during 1982-6. SETTING--The Victorian Cytology Gynaecological Service, a free public sector cytology laboratory in Victoria, Australia. SUBJECTS--138 Women, all of whom had had cervical cancer diagnosed during the 36 months after having had a negative cervical smear. Subjects were divided into two age groups: younger women, aged less than 35; older women, aged 35-69. INTERVENTIONS--Negative slides were reviewed for evidence of optimal sampling and for the presence of cellular abnormalities that had been missed at the time of the original reporting. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--The number of interval cases of cancer of the cervix registered during 1982-6. The proportion of interval cases occurring in younger women and the proportion occurring in older women. Division of women into three risk categories based on clinical history and screening history that broadly corresponded to the probability that a diagnosis of cervical cancer might be expected during the 36 months after the issuing of a negative smear report. RESULTS--138 Of 1044 (13.2%) women who had been registered with cervical cancer during 1982-6 had had one or more negative smears during the 36 months preceding the diagnosis of cancer. Interval cancers comprised a larger proportion of registrations of cervical cancer in women aged less than 35 years than in women aged 35-69 (21.1% v 11.0%, p less than 0.01). Women with interval cancer who had had at least three negative smears during the 10 years before the diagnosis of cancer were commoner in the younger age group than in the older age group (7.0% v 2.5%, p less than 0.01). When, however, the number of observed cases of squamous cell carcinoma was related to the number of expected cases in the absence of screening, no significant difference was found between the two age groups (6.8% v 4.8%, p greater than 0.10). The rate of diagnosis of interval cancer per 100,000 negative tests was lower among younger women than among older women (10/100,000 v 16/100,000). Review of the negative slides showed that 11.9% were again considered to be negative with an optimal sample having been obtained as evidenced by the presence of endocervical cells or metaplastic cells, or both. CONCLUSIONS--Interval cancers might comprise a larger proportion of all registered cases of cervical cancer among younger women owing to the larger proportion of such cancers being prevented in this age group. Among women with interval cancer review of the negative slides showed that most were accounted for by suboptimal sampling or by errors of reporting.     

Rationale for stopping cervical screening in women over 50.

OBJECTIVE--To investigate whether the currently recommended age at which to stop cervical screening (64) can be lowered and what criteria should be used for safely doing so. DESIGN--Retrospective case analysis study. SETTING--Dundee and Angus districts of Scotland. SUBJECTS--Women diagnosed as having cervical intraepithelial neoplasia and microinvasive or invasive cancer of the cervix in 1989 and 1990 (798 cases). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE--History of cervical cytology results according to age (age groups of five years) and screening interval (three years and five years). RESULTS--Cervical intraepithelial neoplasia was most common in women under 45 (711 cases in women of 45 and under v 38 cases in those of 46 and over). Cervical intraepithelial neoplasia occurring de novo was not seen in women over 50 who had been screened every three years. Microinvasive or invasive cancer of the cervix was diagnosed in 26 women over 50. None of these women had participated adequately in the cervical screening programme. CONCLUSION--Cervical intraepithelial neoplasia typically occurs in younger women. All women over 50 with an adequate history of negative results on smear testing every three years may be safely discharged from further screening if these findings are confirmed in other populations.     

Organisation and results of the cervical cytology screening programme in British Columbia, 1955-85

A screening programme to detect preinvasive carcinoma of the cervix was started in British Columbia in 1949. Since 1970 the number of women who have been screened at least once has been maintained at about 85% of the population at risk. More than 500 000 cervical smears are being examined each year in the central laboratory. There has been an appreciable increase in the number of cases and rates of carcinoma in situ seen since 1970, particularly in women between 20 and 30 years of age. Since the programme started over 26 000 cases of squamous carcinoma in situ have been detected and treated. The incidence of clinically invasive squamous carcinoma of the cervix has fallen by 78% during the period under review, and mortality from squamous carcinoma of the cervix has fallen by 72%. A colposcopy programme, introduced throughout British Columbia over the past 12 years, has been important in reducing the problems of managing preinvasive lesions, particularly in younger women.It is concluded that the reduction in morbidity and mortality from invasive squamous cancer of the cervix in British Columbia over the past 30 years is directly attributable to the province wide screening programme and that a large potential increase in invasive cervical cancer rates among younger women is being prevented.     

Predicting mortality from cervical cancer after negative smear test results.

OBJECTIVE--To assess the relative protection against death from cervical cancer after two or more negative smear test results and compare it with the protection against invasive cancer estimated by an International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) working group in an analysis of data from 10 large screening programmes. DESIGN--Comparison of risk of death from cervical cancer after two or more negative smear results with the risk in unscreened women by using a model constructed with data from the British Columbia screening programme. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Mortality from and incidence of invasive cancer. RESULTS--In women with two negative smear results estimates of protection against cervical cancer were about 50% higher when lethal invasive cancer was used as the criterion rather than all invasive cancer. This difference was due to these women being more likely to attend for further tests at which invasive cancer could be detected: screen detected cancer has a better prognosis than clinically diagnosed cancer. Screening intervals could be longer than three years: screening women aged 35-64 every five years was predicted to result in a 90% reduction in mortality from cervical cancer. CONCLUSION--Because protection from mortality is higher than protection from disease and because of the high costs and negative side effects of frequent screening, screening intervals should be longer than three years.     

Cervical smear histories of 500 women with invasive cervical cancer in Yorkshire.

The smear histories of 312 women with cancer of the cervix have been determined. Eighty nine women had had at least one negative smear reported in the 10 years before a diagnosis of cancer and 14 had had more than one negative smear. Fifty six of the 89 women had had a negative smear in the three years preceding the diagnosis of cancer. The highest number of negative smears (61) reported was among the 115 women aged under 45. Fifty eight slides reported as negative were submitted to independent review; 13 were subsequently reported as negative, 11 as unsatisfactory, and 34 as abnormal. These findings may in part explain why in this region there has been a disappointing reduction in the incidence of clinically invasive cervix cancer, and our findings may also apply elsewhere. Nevertheless, the confirmed negative smears chiefly occurred within three years of clinical cancer, particularly in the younger women, and this finding suggests that these women may have a short preinvasive phase.     

Cervical screening in England and Wales: its effect has been underestimated

Opinions about cervical screening in the UK tend to follow one of two negative lines of thought. The first is that cervical cancer is a rare disease, and too much time and effort are spent on screening. The second is that it has been relatively ineffective, since incidence of invasive carcinoma did not fall until the NHS Cervical Screening Programme (NHSCSP) was introduced in 1988, although it fell by 40% since then. This paper presents publicly available data to demonstrate that neither of these views is true. Registrations of invasive carcinoma of the uterine cervix and carcinoma in situ in England and Wales between 1971 and 1996 show that a substantially increased risk of disease in women born since 1940 has been reversed, almost certainly by greatly improved screening. Cervical carcinoma is now a rare disease because most cases are prevented before they become invasive, mostly by screening young women, aged 20-40, before the decade of life when symptomatic cervical carcinoma most frequently presents.     

Screening for cancer.

Screening has proved effective for only two cancer sites, the breast and the cervix uteri. Only for these, therefore, should screening be a part of routine clinical practice. The degree to which screening is effective depends on whether appropriate groups are screened. For cancer of the breast, current evidence justifies mammographic screening every two years only from the age of 50, continuing at least to the age of 70. The place of breast self-examination and physical examination of the breasts is under investigation, but these procedures should probably be used in all women after the age of 40. For cancer of the cervix, nearly maximal efficacy is obtained by screening sexually active women every three years from the age of 25 to 60. Older women who have not been screened regularly should be screened. Other screening techniques to detect cancers, such as the rectal examination, sigmoidoscopy, and fecal occult blood tests for colorectal cancer, are still experimental. Organizational and other difficulties will prevent screening programs from making a major contribution to reducing overall cancer mortality by the year 2000. If organizational problems can be overcome, however, screening may control invasive cancer of the cervix and make a major contribution in reducing breast cancer mortality in the future.     

Intraepithelial Carcinoma of the Cervix Uteri in Women Aged under 35 Years

The number of cases of intraepithelial carcinoma of the cervix among women of different age groups has been related to the number of cervical smears from women of the same age groups. Among women aged 25 to 34 years the incidence of intraepithelial carcinoma was 0·67% and among those aged 35 to 44 years it was 0·75%. The overall rate of intraepithelial carcinoma in women under 35 years was 0·55% compared with an overall rate of 0·59% in women over 35 years.If screening of women for cervical cancer is to play any part in preventive medicine it is suggested that the national campaign for the early detection of cervical cancer should be expanded to encourage practitioners to take cervical smears from younger women, particularly from those under 35 years.     

Outcomes of screening to prevent cancer: analysis of cumulative incidence of cervical abnormality and modelling of cases and deaths prevented

ObjectiveTo determine the frequency of different outcomes in women participating in cervical screening.DesignAnalysis of screening records from 348 419 women, and modelling of cases of cervical cancer and deaths with and without screening.SettingCervical screening programme in Bristol.ResultsFor every 10 000 women screened from 1976 to 1996, 1564 had abnormal cytology, 818 were investigated, and 543 had abnormal histology. One hundred and seventy six had persistent abnormality for two years or more. In the absence of screening 80 women would be expected to develop cancer of the cervix by 2011, of whom 25 would die. With screening 10 of these deaths would be avoided. Comparison of cumulative abnormality rates with numbers expected to develop cancer in the absence of screening suggests that at least 80% of high grade dyskaryosis and of high grade dysplasia would not progress to cancer. The lifetime risk of having abnormal cytology detected could be as high as 40% for women born since 1960.ConclusionsScreening is labour and resource intensive. It involves treatment for many women not destined to develop invasive cancer. The increased intervention rate for cervical abnormality in England is due to change in practice, not a cohort effect, and is probably the reason for the marked fall in incidence and mortality during the 1990s. For other cancers there is scope for major iatrogenic harm from screening because of invasive tests and treatments.

What is already known on this topic

Since the mid-1980s incidence of and mortality from cervical cancer in women born since the 1930s in England and Wales has fallen; screening is the most likely explanationFor each death prevented many women have to be screened and many are treated who would not have developed a problem

What this study adds

In the NHS cervical screening programme around 1000 women need to be screened for 35 years to prevent one deathOver 80% of women with high grade cervical intraepithelial neoplasia will not develop invasive cancer, but all need to be treatedFor each death prevented, over 150 women have an abnormal result, over 80 are referred for investigation, and over 50 have treatmentBefore the 1988 relaunch of screening with strict quality standards, for each death prevented there were 57 000 tests and 1955 women had abnormal results     

Response by women aged 65-79 to invitation for screening for breast cancer by mammography: a pilot study.

OBJECTIVE--To determine whether there is sufficient benefit to be gained by offering screening for breast cancer with mammography to women aged 65-79, who are not normally invited for screening. DESIGN--Pilot study of women eligible for screening but not for personal invitation. The results of this study were compared with the results of routinely screened younger women (aged 50-64) from the same general practice. SETTING--One group general practice in south Manchester. PATIENTS--The 631 women aged 65-79 on the practice list. A total of 42 (7%) were excluded by the general practitioner, and 22 (4%) invitation letters were returned by the post office. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES--Response rates to invitation for screening assessed by three indices: crude population coverage ratio, crude invited population coverage ratio, and corrected invited population coverage ratio. RESULTS--344 Patients aged 65-79 (61% of those invited, excluding those who could not be traced) were screened compared with 77% of women aged 50-64. The three response indices were higher for younger women than older: crude population coverage ratio = 66.5%, crude invited population coverage ratio = 69.3%, corrected invited population coverage ratio = 76.8% for women aged 50-64, compared with 54.5%, 58.4%, and 60.7% respectively for women aged 65-79. All four biopsies done in the older women gave positive results, giving a cancer detection rate of 11.6/1000 compared with 4.1/1000 among younger women. CONCLUSIONS--These results show that there is a potential for high attendance at routine screening by older women if they are invited in the same way as younger women. If these results are found elsewhere the costs and benefits of screening older women should be reassessed.     

Incidence of breast cancer in Norway and Sweden during introduction of nationwide screening: prospective cohort study

Objective To determine whether any increase in the incidence of breast cancer in women detected by mammography is compensated for by a drop in the incidence after age 69, years when women are no longer invited for screening.Design Population based cohort study of incidence of breast cancer during the introduction of nationwide screening programmes.Setting Norway and Sweden.Participants All women aged above 30 years (1.4 and 2.9 million, respectively, in 2000).Main outcome measures Changes in age specific incidence rates of invasive breast cancer associated with the introduction of the screening programmes.Results As a result of screening the recorded incidence of breast cancer in women aged 50-69 years increased by 54% in Norway and 45% in Sweden. There was no corresponding decline in incidence after the age of 69 years.Conclusions Without screening one third of all invasive breast cancers in the age group 50-69 years would not have been detected in the patients'' lifetime. This level of overdiagnosis is larger than previously reported.     

Model of outcomes of screening mammography: information to support informed choices

Objective To provide easy to use estimates of the benefits and harms of biennial screening mammography for women aged 40, 50, 60, and 70 years.Design Markov process model, with data from BreastScreen Australia, the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare, and the Australian Bureau of Statistics.Main outcome measure Age specific outcomes expressed per 1000 women over 10 years.Results For every 1000 women screened over 10 years, 167-251 (depending on age) receive an abnormal result; 56-64 of these women undergo at least one biopsy, 9-26 have an invasive cancer detected by screening, and 3-6 have ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS) detected by screening. More breast cancers (both invasive and DCIS) are diagnosed among screened than unscreened women. For example, among 1000 women aged 50 who have five biennial screens, 33 breast cancers are diagnosed: 28 invasive cancers (18 detected at screening and 10 interval cancers) and five DCIS (all detected at screening). By comparison, among 1000 women aged 50 who decline screening, 20 cancers are diagnosed over 10 years. There are about 0.5, 2, 3, and 2 fewer deaths from breast cancer over 10 years per 1000 women aged 40, 50, 60, and 70, respectively, who choose to be screened compared with women who decline screening at times determined by relevant policy.Conclusion Benefits and harms of screening mammography are relatively finely balanced. Quantitative estimates such as these can be used to support individual informed choices about screening.     

Cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade III (CIN III) and invasive cervical carcinoma: the yawning gap revisited and the treatment of risk

In a 3-year study of the population of Southampton and south-west Hampshire there were 10 times as many cases of CIN III compared with invasive squamous carcinoma (700 compared with 70). The peak incidence of CIN III per 1000 screened women years was in those aged 25-29 years, which was 20 years earlier than the peak incidence of invasive cervical cancer per 1000 women years at risk. Ninety percent of CIN III was diagnosed in women under 50 years. There were 14 cases of cervical glandular intraepithelial neoplasia grade III (CGIN III), three coexisting with CIN III, all in women aged under 50 years: the gap between intraepithelial and invasive lesions was not seen for glandular neoplasia. Although referral was for at least moderate dyskaryosis in 86.8% of women with CIN III or CGIN III, most had been screened previously, either having had mild abnormalities requiring repeat cytology (39.8%) or negative cytology (34.5%). Only 12 women aged > or = 50 years had previous negative cytology: 21.4% compared with 35.6% of women aged < 50 years (P = 0.034). The results of this study suggest that the best opportunity for preventing invasive squamous cell carcinoma lies in screening women aged 20-39 years when the incidence of CIN III in the screened population is highest and before the peak incidence of invasive disease. The results also indicate the importance of repeated screening and follow up of minor cytological abnormalities in the detection of CIN III. The benefit of screening must be regarded as a treatment of risk, since it is almost certain that a high proportion of CIN III regresses or persists unchanged.     

Relation of Abnormal Cytological Smears and Carcinoma of Cervix Uteri to Husband's Occupation

An analysis of the cytological records of almost 300,000 women in the Manchester area shows that the rates of positive/suspicious findings from population screening are highly correlated with the rates of mortality from cancer of the cervix when both are distributed according to the occupation of the husband. The correlation holds for various occupational groupings and for all the individual occupation units in which there are more than 1,000 women. This evidence strengthens the case for believing that the condition revealed by a positive smear is a stage in the development of invasive cancer of the uterine cervix.     

Long term risk of invasive cancer after treatment for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3: population based cohort study

Objective To study the long term risk of invasive cancer of the cervix or vagina after treatment for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3.Design Prospective cohort study.Setting Swedish cancer registry.Participants All women in Sweden with severe dysplasia or cervical carcinoma in situ (equivalent to cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3) treated during 1958-2002 (n=132 493) contributing 2 315 724 woman years.Main outcome measures Standardised incidence ratios with risk of cancer in the Swedish general female population as reference, and relative risks in multivariable log-linear regression model, with internal references.Results Women with previous cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 had an increased risk of invasive cervical cancer compared with the general female population (standardised incidence ratio 2.34, 95% confidence interval 2.18 to 2.50). The increased risk showed a decreasing trend with time since diagnosis for women treated later than 1970 but the risk was still increased after 25 years. An effect of age was found, with an accentuated increase in risk for women aged more than 50. The excess risk for cervical cancer associated with previous cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 has steadily increased since 1958. For vaginal cancer the standardised incidence ratio was 6.82 (5.61 to 8.21) but this decreased to 2.65 after 25 years. Adjustments in the multivariable log-linear regression model did not substantially alter these results.Conclusions Women previously treated for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade 3 are at an increased risk of developing invasive cervical cancer and vaginal cancer. This risk has increased since the 1960s and is accentuated in women aged more than 50. The risk is still increased 25 years after treatment.     

Clinical relevance of human papillomavirus testing in cytopathology

Cancer of the uterine cervix is the second most common cancer in women worldwide. Currently, cervical screening is based on cytology alone. Because infection with high-risk human papillomavirus types (hrHPVs) is a necessary cause of cervical cancer, it has been postulated that screening might become more efficient when it is based on combined cytology and hrHPV testing. In this review we will discuss the advantages of added HPV tests in cervical cancer screening, as a quality control for false-negative smears, in triage of women with equivocal smears, in follow-up of women treated for CIN3 or cervical cancer and for the detection of cervical adenocarcinoma.     

Screening for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia in north east Scotland shows fall in incidence and mortality from invasive cancer with concomitant rise in preinvasive disease.

OBJECTIVE--To assess the effect of screening for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia on the incidence of and mortality from invasive squamous cell carcinoma of cervix in north east Scotland and to discover why cases of invasive cancer still occur. DESIGN--(a) Analysis of data on cases of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia obtained from the cytology data bank; (b) analysis of data on 612 women presenting with invasive squamous cancer during 1968-91, obtained from cancer registry and hospital records; (c) analysis of death rates obtained from the registrar general''s (Scotland) annual reports, the Information Services Division of the Home and Health Department (Scotland), and local records for 1974-91; (d) case-control studies on 282 cases of invasive cancer and 108 deaths which occurred in 1982-91. Cases were matched with two controls both for age and for having a negative smear test result at the time of presentation of the case. SETTING--North east Scotland (Grampian region, Orkney, and Shetland). SUBJECTS--Women (n = 306,608) who had had cervical smear tests between 1960 and 1991. RESULTS--There had been a substantial increase in cases of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade III since 1982. The incidence of invasive cancer has fallen since the start of screening in 1960, the fall occurring mainly in the well screened age group 40-69 years. There was a rise in women aged under 40 and over 70. Women with invasive disease seen between 1982 and 1991 mostly presented at stage I. Of these, half were unscreened, one third were poorly screened, 11% were found in retrospect to have had abnormal cells, 3% had recurrence of disease after treatment for cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade III, and 3% were lost to follow up. Death rates had fallen, most noticeably in women aged 45-64, who had had the opportunity to be screened and rescreened. There was a disturbing rise in deaths among women under 45. Most deaths (65%) occurred in unscreened women. Case-control studies showed that the longer the time and absence of a smear test before presentation the higher was the risk of invasive cancer and of death. CONCLUSIONS--Screening has been effective in reducing the incidence of and mortality from cervical cancer in north east Scotland. Most cases and deaths occurred in unscreened women or in those who had had few smears at long intervals. An increase in cases of cervical intraepithelial neoplasia grade III in women screened for the first time occurred during 1982-91.     

Cervical cancer screening: A Slovenian experience

In Slovenia, opportunistic screening was introduced in regular gynaecological practice in 1960. The proportion of population screened was unknown, as well as there were no standards for quality assurance and control. Despite great number of smears read, there were no major changes in invasive cervical cancer incidence in the period 1979 till 1993, but in 1994 the incidence rate started to increase again to reach its peak in 1997 (23,1/100.000, 241 new cases). Based on the experiences from the countries with effectively organised screening programmes, a decision was made in 1996 by the Minister of Health to nominate a group of experts to prepare a proposal for organised cervical cancer screening programme after testing the methodology in pilot study. In the pilot the central computerised information system (Screening Registry) was gradually established to register all smears from the whole country, to identify women who do not attend for screening to send them invitation for screening and to monitor screening activity and its quality. The aim of pilot was also to develop guidelines for quality assurance and control of all procedures involved in cervical cancer screening and treatment of intraepithelial lesions. In three years since the beginning of the national programme, nearly 70% of women in the target age group were registered with at least one smear. All other results are presented in regular programme reports. There is still place for further development of the programme, but the incidence of cervical cancer already started to decline especially among younger women, who attend for screening more often than those aged over 50.     

Implications of gynaecological abnormalities in pre-selection criteria for cervical screening: preliminary evaluation of 3602 subjects in South India

Early detection and eradication of cervical cancer and its precursor lesions through organized mass cytological screening programmes have recently gained considerable attention in developing countries. Strategies for both cost saving and effective implementation are however required for mass cervical screening in developing countries. In an early cancer detection programme conducted in South India, we analysed cytological abnormalities in 3602 women and correlated the results with other factors, including age, gynaecological complaints, number of years of married life and parity to see if pre-selection for cytologic screening was possible. Only lower grades of dysplasia were found in asymptomatic women below the age of 40 years. In asymptomatic women, malignancy and higher grades of dysplasia were confined to women with a clinically abnormal cervix only. Univariate analysis also revealed that subjects with a parity of more than 3 and a married life of more than 20 years had a significantly higher number of cytological abnormalities. However, on a multivariate analysis the increased number of marital years was not found to be an independent variable. These results suggest that asymptomatic women below the age of 40 years with a married life of less than 20 years and parity below 3, may be excluded from screening campaigns, and that pre-selection for cytologic screening is possible by introducing a programme of clinical and speculum examination of the cervix.