The diffusion model for migration and selection in a plant population

 The diffusion approximation is derived for migration and selection at a multiallelic locus in a partially selfing plant population subdivided into a lattice of colonies. Generations are discrete and nonoverlapping; both pollen and seeds disperse. In the diffusion limit, the genotypic frequencies at each point are those determined at equilibrium by the local rate of selfing and allelic frequencies. If the drift and diffusion coefficients are taken as the appropriate linear combination of the corresponding coefficients for pollen and seeds, then the migration terms in the partial differential equation for the allelic frequencies have the standard form for a monoecious animal population. The selection term describes selection on the local genotypic frequencies. The boundary conditions and the unidimensional transition conditions for a geographical barrier and for coincident discontinuities in the carrying capacity and migration rate have the standard form. In the diallelic case, reparametrization renders the entire theory of clines and of the wave of advance of favorable alleles directly applicable to plant populations. Received 30 August 1995; received in revised form 23 February 1996     

Evolution under multiallelic migration-selection models

The loss of a specified allele and the convergence of the gene frequencies at a single multiallelic locus under the joint action of migration and viability selection are investigated. The monoecious, diploid population is subdivided into finitely many panmictic colonies that exchange adult migrants independently of genotype. Sufficient conditions are established for global fixation and for global loss of a particular allele. When migration is either sufficiently weak or sufficiently strong relative to selection, the equilibria are described, convergence of the gene frequencies is demonstrated, and sufficient conditions for the increase of a suitably defined mean fitness are offered. If the selection pattern is the same in every colony and such that in a panmictic population there is a globally asymptotically stable, internal (i.e., completely polymorphic) equilibrium point, then under certain weak assumptions on migration, the gene frequencies in the subdivided population converge globally to that equilibrium point. Thus, in this case, the ultimate state of the population is unaffected by geographical structure.     

Migration as a factor in natural selection

Migration is defined as the movement of genes from one locality or population to another. If certain genotypes tend to migrate more than others we have migrational selection. Evidence for migrational selection is discussed. A distinction is made between the dispersion of individuals from a point giving a leptokurtic distribution of migration distances, and large scale movements of individuals from one population to another.Models for large scale unidirectional migrations where genotypes vary in viability before and after migration are cosidered. These lead to different equilibrium points before and after migration.Models for reciprocal migration between two populations are discussed. It is shown that the gene frequencies of the two populations may diverge under the influence of varying migration rates and varying viabilities of the genotypes. Furthermore, more than one stable equilibrium point may be possible for a given set of viabilities. Equilibria are shown to be possible for viabilities not implying simple overdominance. In migratory birds, where there are two annual migrations between two localities, migrational selection may lead to differing gene frequencies in the two localities.The need for data on migration in different organisms is stressed. It is suggested that man is especially suitable for migration studies.     

Polymorphism in multiallelic migration–selection models with dominance

The evolution of the gene frequencies at a single multiallelic locus under the joint action of migration and viability selection with dominance is investigated. The monoecious, diploid population is subdivided into finitely many panmictic colonies that exchange adult migrants independently of genotype. Underdominance and overdominance are excluded. If the degree of dominance is deme independent for every pair of alleles, then under the Levene model, the qualitative evolution of the gene frequencies (i.e., the existence and stability of the equilibria) is the same as without dominance. In particular: (i) the number of demes is a generic upper bound on the number of alleles present at equilibrium; (ii) there exists exactly one stable equilibrium, and it is globally attracting; and (iii) if there exists an internal equilibrium, it is globally asymptotically stable. Analytic examples demonstrate that if either the Levene model does not apply or the degree of dominance is deme dependent, then the above results can fail. A complete global analysis of weak migration and weak selection on a recessive allele in two demes is presented.     

Evolution of migration in a metapopulation

In this paper a general deterministic discrete-time metapopulation model with a finite number of habitat patches is analysed within the framework of adaptive dynamics. We study a general model and prove analytically that (i) if the resident populations state is a fixed point, then the resident strategy with no migration is an evolutionarily stable strategy, (ii) a mutant population with no migration can invade any resident population in a fixed point state, (iii) in the uniform migration case the strategy not to migrate is attractive under small mutational steps so that selection favours low migration. Some of these results have been previously observed in simulations, but here they are proved analytically in a general case. If the resident population is in a two-cyclic orbit, then the situation is different. In the uniform migration case the invasion behaviour depends both on the type of the residents attractor and the survival probability during migration. If the survival probability during migration is low, then the system evolves towards low migration. If the survival probability is high enough, then evolutionary branching can happen and the system evolves to a situation with several coexisting types. In the case of out-of-phase attractor, evolutionary branching can happen with significantly lower survival probabilities than in the in-phase attractor case. Most results in the two-cyclic case are obtained by numerical simulations. Also, when migration is not uniform we observe in numerical simulations in the two-cyclic orbit case selection for low migration or evolutionary branching depending on the survival probability during migration.     

A diffusion model for geographically structured populations

Summary A diffusion model is derived for the evolution of a diploid monoecious population under the influence of migration, mutation, selection, and random genetic drift. The population occupies an unbounded linear habitat; migration is independent of genotype, symmetric, and homogeneous. The treatment is restricted to a single diallelic locus without dominance. With the customary diffusion hypotheses for migration and the assumption that the mutation rates, selection coefficient, variance of the migrational displacement, and reciprocal of the population density are all small and of the same order of magnitude, a boundary value problem is deduced for the mean gene frequency and the covariance between the gene frequencies at any two points in the habitat. Supported by the National Science Foundation (Grant No. DEB77-21494).     

Linkage Disequilibrium in Subdivided Populations

The linkage disequilibrium in a subdivided populaton is shown to be equal to the sum of the average linkage disequilibrium for all subpopulations and the covariance between gene frequencies of the loci concerned. Thus, in a subdivided population the linkage disequilibrium may not be 0 even if the linkage disequilibrium in each subpopulation is 0. If a population is divided into two subpopulations between which migration occurs, the asymptotic rate of approach to linkage equilibrium is equal to either r or 2(m(1) + m(2)) - (m(1) + m(2))(2), whichever is smaller, where r is the recombination value and m(1) and m(2) are the proportions of immigrants in subpopulations 1 and 2, respectively. Thus, if migration rate is high compared with recombination value, the change of linkage disequilibrium in subdivided populations is similar to that of a single random mating population. On the other hand, if migration rate is low, the approach to lnkage equilibrium may be retarded in subdivided populations. If isolated populations begin to exchange genes by migration, linkage disequilibrium may increase temporarily even for neutral loci. If overdominant selection operates and the equilibrium gene frequencies are different in the two subpopulations, a permanent linkage disequilibrium may be produced without epistasis in each subpopulation.     

Evolution of dispersal in density regulated populations: A haploid model

The evolution of dispersal is explored in a density-dependent framework. Attention is restricted to haploid populations in which the genotypic fitnesses at a single diallelic locus are decreasing functions of the changing number of individuals in the population. It is shown that migration between two populations in which the genotypic response to density is reversed can maintain both alleles when the intermigration rates are constant or nondecreasing functions of the population densities. There is always a unique symmetric interior equilibrium with equal numbers but opposite gene frequencies in the two populations, provided the system is not degenerate. Numerical examples with exponential and hyperbolic fitnesses suggest that this is the only stable equilibrium state under constant positive migration rates (m) less than . Practically speaking, however, there is only convergence after a reasonable number of generations for relatively small migration rates ( ). A migration-modifying mutant at a second, neutral locus, can successfully enter two populations at a stable migration-selection balance if and only if it reduces the intermigration rates of its carriers at the original equilibrium population size. Moreover, migration modification will always result in a higher equilibrium population size, provided the system approaches another symmetric interior equilibrium. The new equilibrium migration rate will be lower than that at the original equilibrium, even when the modified migration rate is a nondecreasing function of the population sizes. Therefore, as in constant viability models, evolution will lead to reduced dispersal.     

The diffusion model for migration and selection in a dioecious population

The diffusion approximation is derived for migration and selection at a multiallelic locus in a dioecious population subdivided into a lattice of panmictic colonies. Generations are discrete and nonoverlapping; autosomal and X-linked loci are analyzed. The relation between juvenile and adult subpopulation numbers is very general and includes both soft and hard selection; the zygotic sex ratio is the same in every colony. All the results hold for both adult and juvenile migration. If ploidy-weighted average selection, drift, and diffusion coefficients are used, then the ploidy-weighted average allelic frequencies satisfy the corresponding partial differential equation for a monoecious population. The boundary conditions and the unidimensional transition conditions for coincident discontinuities in the carrying capacity and migration rate extend identically. The previous unidimensional formulation and analysis of symmetric, nearest-neighbor migration of a monoecious population across a geographical barrier is generalized to symmetric migration of arbitrary finite range, and the transition conditions are shown to hold for a dioecious population. Thus, the entire theory of clines and of the wave of advance of favorable alleles is applicable to dioecious populations.This work was supported by National Science Foundation grant BSR-9006285     

Conditions for the Existence of Clines

A very general partial differential equation in space and time satisfied by the gene frequency in a monoecious population distributed continuously over an arbitrary habitat is derived. The treatment is restricted to a single diallelic locus in the absence of mutation and random drift, and it is supposed that time is continuous, births and deaths occur at random, and migration is independent of genotype. With the further assumptions that migration is isotropic and homogeneous, the population density is constant and uniform (as permitted by the population regulation mechanism included in the formulation), and Hardy-Weinberg proportions obtain locally, this partial differential equation reduces to the simplest multidimensional generalization of the classical Fisher-Haldane cline model. The efficacy of migration and selection in maintaining genetic variability at equilibrium in this model is investigated by deducing conditions for the existence of clines under various circumstances. The effects of the degree of dominance, a neutral belt between the regions where a particular allele is advantageous and deleterious, finiteness of the habitat, and habitat dimensionality are evaluated. Provided at least one of the alleles is favored only in a finite region, excluding the special case in which its total effective selective coefficient is zero, if conditions for supporting a cline are too unfavorable because migration is too strong, selection is too weak, or both, a cline cannot exist at all. Thus, unless there is overdominance, the population must be monomorphic. It is possible for a cline which can barely exist under the prevailing ecological circumstances to show a large amount of variation in gene frequency.     

Multilocus selection in subdivided populations I. Convergence properties for weak or strong migration

The dynamics and equilibrium structure of a deterministic population-genetic model of migration and selection acting on multiple multiallelic loci is studied. A large population of diploid individuals is distributed over finitely many demes connected by migration. Generations are discrete and nonoverlapping, migration is irreducible and aperiodic, all pairwise recombination rates are positive, and selection may vary across demes. It is proved that, in the absence of selection, all trajectories converge at a geometric rate to a manifold on which global linkage equilibrium holds and allele frequencies are identical across demes. Various limiting cases are derived in which one or more of the three evolutionary forces, selection, migration, and recombination, are weak relative to the others. Two are particularly interesting. If migration and recombination are strong relative to selection, the dynamics can be conceived as a perturbation of the so-called weak-selection limit, a simple dynamical system for suitably averaged allele frequencies. Under nondegeneracy assumptions on this weak-selection limit which are generic, every equilibrium of the full dynamics is a perturbation of an equilibrium of the weak-selection limit and has the same stability properties. The number of equilibria is the same in both systems, equilibria in the full (perturbed) system are in quasi-linkage equilibrium, and differences among allele frequencies across demes are small. If migration is weak relative to recombination and epistasis is also weak, then every equilibrium is a perturbation of an equilibrium of the corresponding system without migration, has the same stability properties, and is in quasi-linkage equilibrium. In both cases, every trajectory converges to an equilibrium, thus no cycling or complicated dynamics can occur.      

CYTONUCLEAR THEORY FOR HAPLODIPLOID SPECIES AND X-LINKED GENES. II. STEPPING-STONE MODELS OF GENE FLOW AND APPLICATION TO A FIRE ANT HYBRID ZONE

We develop cytonuclear, hybrid zone models for haplodiploid species or X-linked genes in diploid species using a stepping-stone framework of migration, in which migration rates vary with both direction and sex. The equilibrium clines for the allele frequencies, cytonuclear disequilibria, and frequencies of pure parental types are examined for species with diagnostic markers, under four important migration schemes: uniform migration of both sexes in both directions, greater migration of both sexes from one direction, greater migration of females, and greater migration of males. Of the three cytonuclear variables examined, the allele frequency clines are the most informative in differentiating among the various migration patterns. The cytonuclear disequilibria and the frequency of the pure parental types tend to be useful only in revealing directional asymmetries in migration. The extent of hybrid zone subdivision has quantitative but not qualitative effects on the distribution of cytonuclear variables, in that the allele frequency clines become more gradual, the cytonuclear disequilibria decrease in magnitude, and the frequencies of pure parentals decline with increasing subpopulation number. Also, the only major difference between the X-linked and haplodiploid frameworks is that a higher frequency of pure parentals is found when considering haplodiploids, in which male production does not require mating. The final important theoretical result is that censusing after migration yields greater disequilibria and parental frequencies than censusing after mating. We analyzed cytonuclear data from two transects from a naturally occurring hybrid zone between two haplodiploid fire ant species, Solenopsis invicta and S. richteri, using our stepping-stone framework. The frequency of S. invicta mtDNA exceeds the frequency of the S. invicta nuclear markers through much of this hybrid zone, indicating that sex differences in migration or selection may be occurring. Maximum-likelihood estimates for the migration rates are very high, due to an unexpectedly large number of pure parental types in the hybrid zone, and differ substantially between the two transects. Overall, our model does not provide a good fit, in part because the S. invicta–S. richteri hybrid zone has not yet reached equilibrium.     

The influence of fluctuating population densities on evolutionary dynamics

The causes and consequences of fluctuating population densities are an important topic in ecological literature. Yet, the effects of such fluctuations on maintenance of variation in spatially structured populations have received little analytic treatment. We analyze what happens when two habitats coupled by migration not only differ in their trade‐offs in selection but also in their demographic stability—and show that equilibrium allele frequencies can change significantly due to ecological feedback arising from locally fluctuating population sizes. When an ecological niche exhibits such fluctuations, these drive an asymmetry in the relative impact of gene flow, and therefore, the equilibrium frequency of the locally adapted type decreases. Our results extend the classic conditions on maintenance of diversity under selection and migration by including the effect of fluctuating population densities. We find simple analytic conditions in terms of the strength of selection, immigration, and the extent of fluctuations between generations in a continent‐island model. Although weak fluctuations hardly affect coexistence, strong recurrent fluctuations lead to extinction of the type better adapted to the fluctuating niche—even if the invader is locally maladapted. There is a disadvantage to specialization to an unstable habitat, as it makes the population vulnerable to swamping from more stable habitats.     

Natural selection under population regulation

The dynamical behavior of multi-allele, one-locus systems is analyzed under population regulation. Weak selection is assumed. It is shown that for sufficiently large times, t, the nth time derivative of the population number N(t) is of order n}+1 in the selection coefficients. These order relations imply there is an asymptotic “quasi-equilibrium” in which population size and mean fitness change slowly relative to changes in gene frequencies. Consistent with the results of other authors, in quasi-equilibrium the mean fitness is second-order in the selection coefficients. In an effort to understand dynamic behavior beyond the immediate neighborhood of equilibrium, the topology of mean fitness surfaces is explored. In general, population regulation leads to regions of decreasing mean fitness in which there are important changes in gene frequencies. To illustrate this and other related phenomena, I analyze models in which there is logarithmic population control, and in which genotypic fitnesses W_i(x) are linear in the allele frequencies x. Exact solutions for mean fitness W(x) are obtained for two- and three-allele systems with symmetric fertilities and mortalities.     

Selection and mutation at a diallelic X-linked locus

Equilibria and convergence of gene frequencies are studied in the case of a diallelic X-linked locus under the influence of selection and mutation. The model used is that of an infinite diploid population with nonoverlapping discrete generations and random mating. It is proved that if the mutation rates and fitnesses are constant and the mutation rates are less than one-third, then global convergence of gene frequencies to equilibria occurs. The phase portraits of the dynamical system describing the change of allelic frequencies from one generation to the next are determined. Convergence of gene frequencies is monotone from a certain generation on if every other generation is skipped. In the case without mutation, our proof of this monotone convergence simplifies G. Palm's original proof [37].     

Multilocus selection in subdivided populations II. Maintenance of polymorphism under weak or strong migration

The potential of maintaining multilocus polymorphism by migration-selection balance is studied. A large population of diploid individuals is distributed over finitely many demes connected by migration. Generations are discrete and nonoverlapping, selection may vary across demes, and loci are multiallelic. It is shown that if migration and recombination are strong relative to selection, then with weak or no epistasis and intermediate dominance at every locus and in every deme, arbitrarily many alleles can be maintained at arbitrarily many loci at a stable equilibrium. If migration is weak relative to selection and recombination, then with weak or no epistasis and intermediate dominance at every locus and in every deme, as many alleles as there are demes can be maintained at arbitrarily many loci at equilibrium. In both cases open sets of such parameter combinations are constructed, thus the results are robust with respect to small, but arbitrary, perturbations in the parameters. For weak migration, the number of demes is, in fact, a generic upper bound to the number of alleles that can be maintained at any locus. Thus, several scenarios are identified under which multilocus polymorphism can be maintained by migration-selection balance when this is impossible in a panmictic population.      

Clines with Variable Migration

The consequences of a discontinuity in the migration rate and of a geographical barrier in the habitat are studied in a diffusion model of migration and selection. The treatment is restricted to a single diallelic locus in a monoecious population in the absence of mutation and random drift. It is supposed further that migration is independent of genotype, the population density remains constant and uniform, and Hardy-Weinberg proportions obtain locally. It is shown that a discontinuity in the migration rate leads to a jump in the slope of the gene frequency, but not in the gene frequency itself, while a localized geographical barrier has precisely the opposite effect. These features of the gene frequency behavior are quantitatively related to the migration rate. The influence of the above inhomogeneities in migration on the maintenance of an allele in an environmental pocket is examined. The extent to which the critical condition for polymorphism is made less stringent by decreased migration outside the pocket and by a geographical barrier between the pocket and the rest of the habitat is evaluated.     

Patterns of multiallelic polymorphism maintained by migration and selection

Evolution at a multiallelic locus under the joint action of migration and viability selection is investigated. Generations are discrete and nonoverlapping. The monoecious, diploid population is subdivided into finitely many panmictic colonies that exchange adult migrants independently of genotype. The forward migration matrix is arbitrary, but time independent and ergodic (i.e., irreducible and aperiodic). Several examples of globally attracting multiallelic equilibria are presented. Migration can cause global fixation even if, without migration, there is a globally attracting multiallelic equilibrium in every colony. Migration can also cause the global fixation of an allele that, without migration, is eliminated in every colony. Without dominance, generically, the number of alleles present at equilibrium cannot exceed the number of colonies. Some general properties and examples of the Levene model are studied in detail. If in each colony there is either no dominance or, without migration, a globally attracting internal equilibrium, then there exists a globally attracting equilibrium with migration. Therefore, if an internal equilibrium exists, it is the global attractor.     

Quantifying the effects of migration and mutation on adaptation and demography in spatially heterogeneous environments

How do mutation and gene flow influence population persistence, niche expansion and local adaptation in spatially heterogeneous environments? In this article, we analyse a demographic and evolutionary model of adaptation to an environment containing two habitats in equal frequencies, and we bridge the gap between different theoretical frameworks. Qualitatively, our model yields four qualitative types of outcomes: (i) global extinction of the population, (ii) adaptation to one habitat only, but also adaptation to both habitats with, (iii) specialized phenotypes or (iv) with generalized phenotypes, and we determine the conditions under which each equilibrium is reached. We derive new analytical approximations for the local densities and the distributions of traits in each habitat under a migration–selection–mutation balance, compute the equilibrium values of the means, variances and asymmetries of the local distributions of phenotypes, and contrast the effects of migration and mutation on the evolutionary outcome. We then check our analytical results by solving our model numerically, and also assess their robustness in the presence of demographic stochasticity. Although increased migration results in a decrease in local adaptation, mutation in our model does not influence the values of the local mean traits. Yet, both migration and mutation can have dramatic effects on population size and even lead to metapopulation extinction when selection is strong. Niche expansion, the ability for the population to adapt to both habitats, can also be prevented by small migration rates and a reduced evolutionary potential characterized by rare mutation events of small effects; however, niche expansion is otherwise the most likely outcome. Although our results are derived under the assumption of clonal reproduction, we finally show and discuss the links between our model and previous quantitative genetics models.     

Estimation of 2Nes from temporal allele frequency data

We develop a new method for estimating effective population sizes, Ne, and selection coefficients, s, from time-series data of allele frequencies sampled from a single diallelic locus. The method is based on calculating transition probabilities, using a numerical solution of the diffusion process, and assuming independent binomial sampling from this diffusion process at each time point. We apply the method in two example applications. First, we estimate selection coefficients acting on the CCR5-delta 32 mutation on the basis of published samples of contemporary and ancient human DNA. We show that the data are compatible with the assumption of s = 0, although moderate amounts of selection acting on this mutation cannot be excluded. In our second example, we estimate the selection coefficient acting on a mutation segregating in an experimental phage population. We show that the selection coefficient acting on this mutation is approximately 0.43.