Towards European climate risk surfaces: the extent and distribution of analogous and non-analogous climates 1931–2100

Aim Climate is an important determinant of species distributions. We assess different aspects of risk arising from future climate change by quantifying changes in the spatial distribution of future climatic conditions compared with the recent past. Location Europe. Methods A 10′ × 10′ resolution gridded data set of five climate variables was used to calculate expected changes to the area, distance and direction of 1931–60 climatic conditions under the HadCM3 climate model for four future climate scenarios based on different rates of greenhouse gas emissions (SRES scenarios). Three levels of tolerance ranges determined the thresholds for which future conditions are considered analogous to 1931–60 (pre‐warming) conditions. Results For many parts of Europe, areas with pre‐warming analogous climate conditions will be smaller and further away in the future than they are now. For any location in Europe, areas with pre‐warming analogous mean annual temperature conditions will, on average, be reduced between 23.7% (B1 scenario) and 49.7% (A1FI scenario) by 2100 when assuming a medium tolerance range. The mean distance to these areas will, on average, increase between 272 km (B1) and 645 km (A1FI). These changes are more pronounced for temperature than for water availability variables and also for narrow tolerance ranges compared to wide tolerance ranges. Using a combined measure of both temperature and precipitation variables, areas with prewarming analogous conditions are predicted to be in a more northeasterly direction in the future, but there are considerable regional differences within Europe. Main conclusions The results suggest that, for some parts of Europe, the loss of area with any suitable climatic conditions represents the greatest risk to biodiversity, but in other regions the distances that species may have to move to reach suitable climatic conditions may be a greater problem. Quantifying the distance and direction in analyses of change of climatically suitable areas can add additional information for climate change risk assessments.     

Effect of ecological factors on intra-annual stem girth increment of holm oak

Key message

The intra-annual stem girth increment of Quercus ilex is mainly driven by water availability and secondly by temperature. Tree size and competition modulate the growth response to climate.

Abstract

Holm oak (Quercus ilex ssp. ballota [Desf.] Samp.) is the most widespread species in the Iberian peninsula, being one of the most representative trees in forests and open woodlands. The analysis of stem girth increment of holm oak may provide valuable information about how Mediterranean ecosystems will respond to the forecasted climate changes. However, due to the variability of the Mediterranean climate, the knowledge of intra-annual patterns of growth is needed for a better understanding of the influence of the climatic variables at this scale. To this end, we used band dendrometers to measure monthly stem girth increments of 96 holm oak trees from 2003 to 2010, located in open woodlands and dense Mediterranean forests in southwestern Spain. We assessed the effects of climate, competition, topography, and initial stem diameter on stem girth increment. The major stem increment periods were in spring and autumn whereas increment rates were very low or even negative in winter and summer. Spring was not every year the season with the higher stem increments, but autumn when spring was very dry. Higher precipitation, soil moisture, and relative humidity had significant positive effects on stem increment, whereas higher temperature, reference evapotranspiration, and solar radiation had significant negative effects. Initial tree diameter and competition from nearby trees partly explained significant differences in stem increment of individual trees. Therefore, the forecasted climatic changes, in which decreased rainfall in spring and increased summer drought are expected in the Mediterranean region, may be a significant threat to the Q. ilex ecosystems.     

<Emphasis Type="Italic">Araucaria araucana</Emphasis> tree-ring chronologies in Argentina: spatial growth variations and climate influences

Seventeen tree-ring chronologies from the conifer Araucaria araucana (Molina) K. Koch have been analyzed across its range of distribution in Argentina. We studied the growth patterns and determined the main climatic factors influencing A. araucana radial growth. All the chronologies show a strong common signal observed by the high amount of variance explained by the first principal component (PC1) and the high mean correlation (r = 0.597) between the chronologies over the 1676–1974 interval. On this basis, we developed a regional chronology that is 866 years long (A.D. 1140–2006) and includes 621 tree-ring series. Based on the PC2 scores, chronologies were clearly separated by elevation in high- and low-elevation records. Regional tree growth is strongly negatively related to temperatures during summer and fall in the previous-growing season and spring in the current-growing season, respectively. A positive association of tree growth with precipitation is recorded during spring in the current growing season. These results suggest a close relationship between A. araucana tree growth and water availability on a regional scale. This observation is also consistent with a positive and significant correlation between our A. araucana regional record and a reconstruction of November–December rainfall for northern Patagonia inferred from the xeric Austrocedrus chilensis during the past 400 years. Negative correlations between A. araucana regional growth and the sea surface temperature in the Niño 3.4 region reflect the occurrence of above-mean summer temperatures in the region during positive tropical Pacific SST anomalies. The negative relationship with the Antarctic Oscillation (AAO) results from reduced precipitation in our study region during the positive phase of the AAO. The effect of elevation on water availability is consistent with significant correlations between ring-width variations at lower elevations and the Palmer Drought Severity Index during spring and summer in the current growing season. Our study emphasizes the high dendroclimatological potential of A. araucana chronologies for reconstructing past climate variations in northern Patagonia during the past millennium.     

Five-year population dynamics of plateau pikas (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Ochotona curzoniae</Emphasis>) on the east of Tibetan Plateau

Small mammals mediate trajectories of vegetation change where both their density and the growing season are moderated by temperature and precipitation. On the Tibetan Plateau, the cold and arid climate particularly restricts the plant growing season, but the role of mammals’ density and climate in moderating small mammal populations remains unknown. We conducted a 5-year mark-recapture study of plateau pikas (Ochotona curzoniae) to test the relative importance of density-dependent and climatic factors on survival and reproduction. Plateau pikas had seasonal fluctuations in density and survival. During the warm summer season (May–August), monthly survival was density-independent, ranging from 74.7 to 90.4%, but varied with sex and age, increased with precipitation and NDVI, and decreased with temperature. During the cold season (September–April), monthly survival was around 98%. Density and precipitation had negative effects on reproductive success for the first and second litters of the year, and temperature showed consistently positive effects on reproductive success for both litters of the year. Pika density and climate regulated together the population dynamics of plateau pikas. These data on the relationships between density and climatic factors on survival and reproduction are critical for the management and conservation of plateau pikas on the Tibetan Plateau.     

Climate change leads to decreasing bird migration distances

Global climate change has led to warmer winters in NW Europe, shortening the distance between suitable overwintering areas and the breeding areas of many bird species. Here we show that winter recovery distances have decreased over the past seven decades, for birds ringed during the breeding season in the Netherlands between 1932 and 2004. Of the 24 species included in the analysis, we found in 12 a significant decrease of the distance to the wintering site. Species from dry, open areas shortened their distance the most, species from wet, open areas the least, while woodland species fall in between the other two habitats. The decline in migration distance is likely due to climate change, as migration distances are negatively correlated with the Dutch temperatures in the winter of recovery. With a shorter migration distance, species should be better able to predict the onset of spring at their breeding sites and this could explain the stronger advancement of arrival date found in several short distance species relative to long-distance migrants.     

Nowhere to Invade: Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia Projected to Disappear under Future Climate Scenarios

Future climate change has been predicted to affect the potential distribution of plant species. However, only few studies have addressed how invasive species may respond to future climate change despite the known effects of plant species invasion on nutrient cycles, ecosystem functions, and agricultural yields. In this study, we predicted the potential distributions of two invasive species, Rumex crispus and Typha latifolia, under current and future (2050) climatic conditions. Future climate scenarios considered in our study include A1B, A2, A2A, B1, and B2A. We found that these two species will lose their habitat under the A1B, A2, A2A, and B1 scenarios. Their distributions will be maintained under future climatic conditions related to B2A scenarios, but the total area will be less than 10% of that under the current climatic condition. We also investigated variations of the most influential climatic variables that are likely to cause habitat loss of the two species. Our results demonstrate that rising mean annual temperature, variations of the coldest quarter, and precipitation of the coldest quarter are the main factors contributing to habitat loss of R. crispus. For T. latifolia, the main factors are rising mean annual temperature, variations in temperature of the coldest quarter, mean annual precipitation, and precipitation of the coldest quarter. These results demonstrate that the warmer and wetter climatic conditions of the coldest season (or month) will be mainly responsible for habitat loss of R. crispus and T. latifolia in the future. We also discuss uncertainties related to our study (and similar studies) and suggest that particular attention should be directed toward the manner in which invasive species cope with rapid climate changes because evolutionary change can be rapid for species that invade new areas.     

Large-scale climatic variability and radial increment variation of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Picea abies</Emphasis> (L.) Karst. in central and northern Europe

High-frequency variation of Norway spruce radial increment [Picea abies (L.) Karst.] and its dependence on various climatic variables was compared in stands across latitudinal and altitudinal transects in southwestern and eastern Germany, Norway, and Finland. The tested variables included local temperature and precipitation, northern hemisphere temperature anomalies, and the climatic teleconnection patterns (North Atlantic Oscillation, East Atlantic, East Atlantic Jet, East Atlantic/West Russia, and Scandinavian patterns). Climatic impact on radial increment increased towards minimum and maximum values of the long-term temperature and precipitation regimes, i.e. trees growing under average conditions respond less strongly to climatic variation. Increment variation was clearly correlated with temperature. Warm Mays promoted radial increments in all regions. If the long-term average temperature sum at a stand was below 1,200-1,300 degree days, above average summer temperature increased radial increment. In regions with more temperate climate, water availability was also a growth-limiting factor. However, in those cases where absolute precipitation sum was clearly related to radial increment variation, its effect was dependent on temperature-induced water stress. The estimated dates of initiation and cessation of growing season and growing season length were not clearly related to annual radial increment. Significant correlations were found between radial increment and climatic teleconnection indices, especially with the winter, May and August North Atlantic Oscillation indices, but it is not easy to find a physiological interpretation for these findings.     

Human-dominated land uses favour species affiliated with more extreme climates,especially in the tropics

Rapid human population growth has driven conversion of land for uses such as agriculture, transportation and buildings. The removal of natural vegetation changes local climate, with human-dominated land uses often warmer and drier than natural habitats. Yet, it remains an open question whether land-use changes influence the composition of ecological assemblages in a direction consistent with the mechanism of local climatic change. Here, we used a global database of terrestrial vertebrates (mammals, birds, reptiles and amphibians) to test whether human-dominated land uses systematically favour species with distinctive realised climatic niches. We 1) explored the responses of community-average temperature and precipitation niches to different types of land use, 2) quantified the abundances of species with distinctive climatic niches across land uses and 3) tested for differences in emergent patterns in communities from tropical versus temperate latitudes. We found that, in comparison to species from undisturbed natural habitats, the average animal found in human-altered habitats lives in areas with higher maximum and lower minimum temperatures and higher maximum and lower minimum precipitation levels. We further found that tropical assemblages diverged more strongly than temperate assemblages between natural and human-altered habitats, possibly because tropical species are more sensitive to climatic conditions. These results strongly implicate the role of land-use change in favouring species affiliated with more extreme climatic conditions, thus systematically reshaping the composition of terrestrial biological assemblages. Our findings have the potential to inform species' vulnerability assessments and highlight the importance of preserving local climate refugia.     

Climate variability,tree increment patterns and ENSO-related carbon sequestration reduction of the tropical dry forest species <Emphasis Type="Italic">Loxopterygium huasango</Emphasis> of Southern Ecuador

Key message

Striking hydro-climatic differences of 2 years (wet; dry) dramatically control the increment pattern of L. huasango in varying extent, even causing a “growth collapse” during the La Niña drought 2010/2011.

Abstract

We present the first multi-year long time series of local climate data in the seasonally dry tropical forest in Southern Ecuador and related growth dynamics of Loxopterygium huasango, a deciduous tree species. Local climate was investigated by installing an automatically weather station in 2007 and the daily tree growth variability was measured with high-resolution point dendrometers. The climatic impact on growth behaviour was evaluated. Hydro-climatic variables, like precipitation and relative humidity, were the most important factors for controlling tree growth. Changes in rainwater input affected radial increment rates and daily amplitudes of stem diameter variations within the study period from 2009 to 2013. El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) related variations of tropical Pacific Ocean sea surface temperatures influenced the trees’ increment rates. Average radial increments showed high inter-annual (up to 7.89 mm) and inter-individual (up to 3.88 mm) variations. Daily amplitudes of stem diameter variations differed strongly between the two extreme years 2009 (wet) and 2011 (dry). Contrary to 2009, the La Niña drought in 2011 caused a rapid reduction of the daily amplitudes, indicating a total cessation (‘growth collapse’) of stem increment under ENSO-related drought conditions and demonstrating the high impact of climatic extreme events on carbon sequestration of the dry tropical forest ecosystem.

     

Contrasting climate niches among co‐occurring subdominant forbs of the sagebrush steppe

Aim

Abiotic conditions are key components that determine the distribution of species. However, co‐occurring species can respond differently to the same factors, and determining which climate components are most predictive of geographic distributions is important for understanding community response to climate change. Here, we estimate and compare climate niches of ten subdominant, herbaceous forb species common in sagebrush steppe systems, asking how niches differ among co‐occurring species and whether more closely related species exhibit higher niche overlap.

Location

Western United States.

Methods

We used herbarium records and ecological niche modelling to estimate area of occupancy, niche breadth and overlap, and describe characteristics of suitable climate. We compared mean values and variability in summer precipitation and minimum temperatures at occurrence locations among species, plant families, and growth forms, and related estimated phylogenetic distances to niche overlap.

Results

Species varied in the size and spatial distribution of suitable climate and in niche breadth. Species also differed in the variables contributing to their suitable climate and in mean values, spatial variation and interannual variation in highly predictive climate variables. Only two of ten species shared comparable climate niches. We found family‐level differences associated with variation in summer precipitation and minimum temperatures, as well as in mean minimum temperatures. Growth forms differed in their association with variability in summer precipitation and minimum temperatures. We found no relationship between phylogenetic distance and niche overlap among our species.

Main conclusions

We identified contrasting climate niches for ten Great Basin understorey forbs, including differences in both mean values and climate variability. These estimates can guide species selection for restoration by identifying species with a high tolerance for climate variability and large climatic niches. They can also help conservationists to understand which species may be least tolerant of climate variability, and potentially most vulnerable to climate change.

     

Hyper-oceanic liverwort species of conservation concern: evidence for dispersal limitation and identification of suitable uncolonised regions

In order to successfully manage and conserve species and plant communities, it is important to have a good understanding of their ecology and distributions. The three liverwort species Anastrophyllum donnianum, Scapania ornithopodioides and Scapania nimbosa, are restricted to the mixed northern hepatic mat community found in the most oceanic parts of north-western Europe. These species are of conservation concern because they are globally rare with strict environmental requirements and a limited dispersal potential, which makes them vulnerable to disturbance and climate change. In this study we used species distribution modelling to (1) predict their potential distribution in Norway (2) to assess whether they are limited by dispersal or suitable climate, (3) identify which climatic factors are most important in determining their distribution and (4) suggest regions for further field based surveys. Maximum entropy (MaxEnt) models were developed for each species using target-group background data, and five environmental coverage layers. Our results indicate that all three species are limited by dispersal rather than the availability of suitable areas in Norway. In particular, A. donnianum seems to be limited from reaching uncolonised highly suitable areas in northern Norway due to a barrier unsuitable region with insufficient summer rain. S. ornithopodioides is absent from northern Norway despite the presence of highly suitable regions scattered along the coast. The models locate highly suitable areas where conservation measures should be focused when they overlap with known populations. Areas of interest for targeting searches for potentially undiscovered populations are indicated.     

The local climate of the Øvre Heimdalen valley

Owing to the high altitude of Øvre Heimdalen and the complex topography within the valley, climatic conditions are complicated. The valley is situated in a mountain region with a subarctic or tundra macroclimate, which exists over the lake itself and on the SSW-valley side. However, the favourable combination of slope angle and exposure of the NNE-valley side gives a radiation or continental type of local climate on this side.
The large net input of radiant energy onto the NNE-valley side during the summer results in higher air temperatures, greater precipitation and higher air humidity than elsewhere in the valley. This is clearly reflected in the luxuriant vegetation on this side. Thus, the climate of the Øvre Heimdalsvatn area is strongly influenced by terrain irregularities and shows how fundamentally different growth possibilities due to local climates may be over short distances in the uppermost valleys on the eastern side of the central mountain chain.     

A Pinus cembra L. tree-ring record for late spring to late summer temperature in the Rhaetian Alps,Italy

Ongoing climate change strongly affects high-elevation environments in the European Alps, influencing the cryosphere and the biosphere and causing widespread retreat of glaciers and changes in biomes. Nevertheless, high-elevation areas often lack long meteorological series, and global datasets cannot represent local variations well. Thus, proxy data, such as tree rings, provide information on past climatic variations from these remote sites. Although maximum latewood density (MXD) chronologies provide better temperature information than those based on tree-ring width (TRW), MXD series from the European Alps are lacking. To derive high-quality temperature information for the Rhaetian Alps, Pinus cembra L. trees sampled at approximately 2000 m a.s.l. were used to build one MXD chronology spanning from 1647 to 2015. The MXD data were significantly and highly correlated with seasonal May-September mean temperatures. The MXD chronology showed a generally positive trend since the middle of the 19^th century, interrupted by short phases of climatic deterioration in the beginning of the 20^th century and in the 1970s, conforming with the temperature trends. Our results underline the potential for using Pinus cembra L. MXD to reconstruct mean temperature variations, especially during the onset and latter part of the growing season, providing additional information on parts of the growing season not inferred from TRW. Future studies on MXD for this species will increase the availability of temporal and spatial data, allowing detailed climate reconstructions.     

北方农牧交错区农业生态系统生产力对气候波动的响应——以准格尔旗为例

气候变化对区域生态系统结构和功能有重大影响。以中国北方农牧交错区的准格尔旗为例,利用气象和《统计年鉴》数据,采用数理统计方法分析准格尔旗1961—2009年降水量、平均气温的波动特征,计算出该地区1961—2009年农业生态系统NPP值和主要农作物的气候产量,论述了准格尔旗农业生态系统生产力对气候波动的响应。结果表明:(1)降水量和平均气温的年际、年内波动均显著。(2)准格尔旗农业生态系统生产力呈现阶段性地波动上升趋势。排除社会、科技等影响,气候生产力对气候波动表现出较强的敏感性,是作物气候生态适应的结果。(3)中国北方雨养旱作区,粮食气候产量受降水量年际波动(特别是7、8月)显著影响;谷子、糜黍、玉米、薯类、大豆和油料等农作物的气候产量与降水量年际波动呈显著正相关;谷子、糜黍的气候产量与生长季降水量年内波动呈显著负相关。集水型生态农业是北方农牧交错区生态环境友好的农业发展模式。(4)谷子、糜黍、薯类、大豆和油料等农作物的气候产量与6、7、8月平均气温年际波动呈显著负相关;生长季平均气温年内波动对谷子、糜黍、大豆和油料等农作物的气候产量有显著负面影响。因此,需要综合采取工程、生物和农业措施,将气候变化对主要农作物气候产量的不利影响降到最低。     

Interannual variations in primary and secondary growth of Nothofagus pumilio and their relationships with climate

Key message

The aim of this study is to evaluate the relationships between primary and secondary growth as well as the influences of climate variations on both types of growth.

Abstract

The relationships between apical (or primary) and radial (or secondary) growth, and climatic influences on both types of growth, were evaluated for Nothofagus pumilio (Nothofagaceae), the dominant subalpine tree in Patagonia. We measured the spacing and number of nodes of annual shoots developed in the period 2001–2010 in 40 N. pumilio trees growing near the upper treeline in the northern Patagonian Andes (41°S). Variations in ring width at the base of each trunk were also recorded. Interannual variations in primary and secondary growth were significantly related to each other, and to several climate variables. Mean temperatures in winter and early spring (June–October) prior to the period of shoot extension were positively associated with both primary and secondary growth. In addition, total summer precipitation (December–March) was positively related to shoot extension, whereas mean summer temperature during the previous growth season (January–March) was directly related to radial growth. These climatic influences on N. pumilio growth may play a major role in regulating the expressions of preformation and neoformation.     

Mushroom's spore size and time of fruiting are strongly related: is moisture important?

Most basidiomycete fungi produce annual short-lived sexual fruit bodies from which billions of microscopic spores are spread into the air during a short time period. However, little is known about the selective forces that have resulted in some species fruiting early and others later in the fruiting season. This study of relationships between morphological and ecological characteristics, climate factors and time of fruiting are based upon thorough statistical analyses of 66 520 mapped records from Norway, representing 271 species of autumnal fruiting mushroom species. We found a strong relationship between spore size and time of fruiting; on average, a doubling of spore size (volume) corresponded to 3 days earlier fruiting. Small-spored species dominate in the oceanic parts of Norway, whereas large-spored species are typical of more continental parts. In separate analyses, significant relationships were observed between spore size and climate factors. We hypothesize that these relationships are owing to water balance optimization, driven by water storage in spores as a critical factor for successful germination of primary mycelia in the drier micro-environments found earlier in the fruiting season and/or in continental climates.     

Species-Specific Growth Responses to Climate Variations in Understory Trees of a Central African Rain Forest

Basic knowledge of the relationships between tree growth and environmental variables is crucial for understanding forest dynamics and predicting vegetation responses to climate variations. Trees growing in tropical areas with a clear seasonality in rainfall often form annual growth rings. In the understory, however, tree growth is supposed to be mainly affected by interference for access to light and other resources. In the semi-deciduous Mayombe forest of the Democratic Republic of Congo, the evergreen species Aidia ochroleuca, Corynanthe paniculata and Xylopia wilwerthii dominate the understory. We studied their wood to determine whether they form annual growth rings in response to changing climate conditions. Distinct growth rings were proved to be annual and triggered by a common external factor for the three species. Species-specific site chronologies were thus constructed from the cross-dated individual growth-ring series. Correlation analysis with climatic variables revealed that annual radial stem growth is positively related to precipitation during the rainy season but at different months. The growth was found to associate with precipitation during the early rainy season for Aidia but at the end of the rainy season for Corynanthe and Xylopia. Our results suggest that a dendrochronological approach allows the understanding of climate–growth relationships in tropical forests, not only for canopy trees but also for evergreen understory species and thus arguably for the whole tree community. Global climate change influences climatic seasonality in tropical forest areas, which is likely to result in differential responses across species with a possible effect on forest composition over time.     

El Niño Southern Oscillation influences the abundance and movements of a marine top predator in coastal waters

Large‐scale climate modes such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence population dynamics in many species, including marine top predators. However, few quantitative studies have investigated the influence of large‐scale variability on resident marine top predator populations. We examined the effect of climate variability on the abundance and temporary emigration of a resident bottlenose dolphin (Tursiops aduncus) population off Bunbury, Western Australia (WA). This population has been studied intensively over six consecutive years (2007–2013), yielding a robust dataset that captures seasonal variations in both abundance and movement patterns. In WA, ENSO affects the strength of the Leeuwin Current (LC), the dominant oceanographic feature in the region. The strength and variability of the LC affects marine ecosystems and distribution of top predator prey. We investigated the relationship between dolphin abundance and ENSO, Southern Annular Mode, austral season, rainfall, sea surface salinity and sea surface temperature (SST). Linear models indicated that dolphin abundance was significantly affected by ENSO, and that the magnitude of the effect was dependent upon season. Dolphin abundance was lowest during winter 2009, when dolphins had high temporary emigration rates out of the study area. This coincided with the single El Niño event that occurred throughout the study period. Coupled with this event, there was a negative anomaly in SST and an above average rainfall. These conditions may have affected the distribution of dolphin prey, resulting in the temporary emigration of dolphins out of the study area in search of adequate prey. This study demonstrated the local effects of large‐scale climatic variations on the short‐term response of a resident, coastal delphinid species. With a projected global increase in frequency and intensity of extreme climatic events, resident marine top predators may not only have to contend with increasing coastal anthropogenic activities, but also have to adapt to large‐scale climatic changes.     

Long-Term Climate Regime Modulates the Impact of Short-Term Climate Variability on Decomposition in Alpine Grassland Soils

Decomposition of plant litter is an important process in the terrestrial carbon cycle and makes up approximately 70% of the global carbon flux from soils to the atmosphere. Climate change is expected to have significant direct and indirect effects on the litter decomposition processes at various timescales. Using the TeaBag Index, we investigated the impact on decomposition of short-term direct effects of temperature and precipitation by comparing temporal variability over years, versus long-term climate impacts that incorporate indirect effects mediated through environmental changes by comparing sites along climatic gradients. We measured the initial decomposition rate (k) and the stabilization factor (S; amount of labile litter stabilizing) across a climate grid combining three levels of summer temperature (6.5–10.5°C) with four levels of annual precipitation (600–2700 mm) in three summers with varying temperature and precipitation. Several (a)biotic factors were measured to characterize environmental differences between sites. Increased temperatures enhanced k, whereas increased precipitation decreased k across years and climatic regimes. In contrast, S showed diverse responses to annual changes in temperature and precipitation between climate regimes. Stabilization of labile litter fractions increased with temperature only in boreal and sub-alpine sites, while it decreased with increasing precipitation only in sub-alpine and alpine sites. Environmental factors such as soil pH, soil C/N, litter C/N, and plant diversity that are associated with long-term climate variation modulate the response of k and S. This highlights the importance of long-term climate in shaping the environmental conditions that influences the response of decomposition processes to climate change.     

Climate-related adaptive genetic variation and population structure in natural stands of Norway spruce in the South-Eastern Alps

Forest trees dominate many Alpine landscapes that are currently exposed to changing climate. Norway spruce is one of the most important conifer species of the Italian Alps, and natural populations are found across steep environmental gradients with large differences in temperature and moisture availability. This study seeks to determine and quantify patterns of genetic diversity in natural populations toward understanding adaptive responses to changing climate. Across the Italian species range, 24 natural stands were sampled with a major focus on the Eastern Italian Alps. Sampled trees were genotyped for 384 selected single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 285 genes. A wide array of potential candidate genes was tested for correlation with climatic parameters. To minimize false-positive association between genotype and climate, population structure was investigated. Pairwise F _ST estimates between sampled populations ranged between 0.000 and 0.075, with the highest values involving the two disjoint populations, Valdieri, on the western Italian Alps, and Campolino, the most southern population on the Apennines. Despite considerable genetic admixture among populations, both Bayesian and multivariate approach identified four genetic clusters. Selection scans revealed five F _ST outliers, and the environmental association analysis detected ten SNPs associated to one or more climatic variables. Overall, 13 potentially adaptive loci were identified, three of which have been reported in a previous study on the same species conducted on a broader geographical scale. In our study, precipitation, more than temperature, was often associated with genotype; therefore, it appears as the most important environmental variable associated with the high sensitivity of Norway spruce to soil water supply. These findings provide relevant information for understanding and quantifying climate change effects on this species and its ability to genetically adapt.