Population dynamic models of the spread of Wolbachia

Wolbachia are endosymbionts that are found in many insect species and can spread rapidly when introduced into a naive host population. Most Wolbachia spread when their infection frequency exceeds a threshold normally calculated using purely population genetic models. However, spread may also depend on the population dynamics of the insect host. We develop models to explore interactions between host population dynamics and Wolbachia infection frequency for an age-structured insect population regulated by larval density dependence. We first derive a new expression for the threshold frequency that extends existing theory to incorporate important details of the insect's life history. In the presence of immigration and emigration, the threshold also depends on the form of density-dependent regulation. We show how the type of immigration (constant or pulsed) and the temporal dynamics of the host population can strongly affect the spread of Wolbachia. The results help understand the natural dynamics of Wolbachia infections and aid the design of programs to introduce Wolbachia to control insects that are disease vectors or pests.     

Controlling the spread of disease in schools

Pandemic and seasonal infectious diseases such as influenza may have serious negative health and economic consequences. Certain non-pharmaceutical intervention strategies--including school closures--can be implemented rapidly as a first line of defense against spread. Such interventions attempt to reduce the effective number of contacts between individuals within a community; yet the efficacy of closing schools to reduce disease transmission is unclear, and closures certainly result in significant economic impacts for caregivers who must stay at home to care for their children. Using individual-based computer simulation models to trace contacts among schoolchildren within a stereotypical school setting, we show how alternative school-based disease interventions have great potential to be as effective as traditional school closures without the corresponding loss of workforce and economic impacts.     

Population structure and eigenanalysis

Current methods for inferring population structure from genetic data do not provide formal significance tests for population differentiation. We discuss an approach to studying population structure (principal components analysis) that was first applied to genetic data by Cavalli-Sforza and colleagues. We place the method on a solid statistical footing, using results from modern statistics to develop formal significance tests. We also uncover a general “phase change” phenomenon about the ability to detect structure in genetic data, which emerges from the statistical theory we use, and has an important implication for the ability to discover structure in genetic data: for a fixed but large dataset size, divergence between two populations (as measured, for example, by a statistic like F_ST) below a threshold is essentially undetectable, but a little above threshold, detection will be easy. This means that we can predict the dataset size needed to detect structure.     

Population niche structure

Summary The response of twenty maternal families of the annual Abutilon theophrasti to two resource gradients, nutrient and light, was investigated. The structure of the population niche for both biomass and reproductive output was found to be quite different on the two gradients. On the light gradient there was a great diversity of responses among the families while on the nutrient gradient the families responded in a similar manner. On both gradients the plants showed a significant genotype/environment interaction. Three strategies for the production of seed variation have been proposed-all offspring are adapted to the same restricted environment, each offspring of an individual is adapted to a particular environment somewhat different thant that of its siblings, and all the offspring are able to grow in a wide range of environments. We found evidence for all three of these strategies amongst the families. The range of responses seen amongst families (of the same species) in this study was as broad as that found in previous studies among species of the old field annual community to which Abutilon theophrasti belongs. This has significant implications to the nature of competitive interactions and to the evolution of differential resource use in plant populations.     

Population structure and evolutionary progress

Wright's shifting-balance theory is discussed as an example of a process that can cause species to evolve combinations of characters that could not evolve under natural selection alone. A review of the existing theory of peak shifts indicates that the conditions of extreme isolation that are necessary to permit genetic drift to alter the outcome of natural selection in local populations would make gene flow too weak to spread a new combination of genes to other populations in a reasonable time. Instead, it seems likely that major demographic changes must occur in a species for the shifting-balance process to work. A discussion of direct and indirect studies of gene flow in natural populations suggests that the current genetic structure of many species is likely to reflect past demographic events rather than ongoing gene flow. It is possible then that demographic processes could be responsible for spreading new traits in a species, but that would be true whether those new traits evolved only owing to natural selection or owing in addition to genetic drift and other forces.     

Population structure and quantitative characters

A migration matrix model is used to investigate the behavior of neutral polygenic characters in subdivided populations. It is shown that gametic disequilibrium has a large effect on the variance among groups but none at all on its expectation. The variance of among-group variance is substantial and does not depend on the number of loci contributing to variance in the character. It is just as large for polygenic characters as for single loci with the same additive variance. This implies that one polygenic character contains exactly as much information about population relationships as one single-locus marker. The theory is compared with observed differentiation of dermatoglyphic and anthropometric characters among Bougainville islanders.     

Population consequences of constitutive and inducible plant resistance: herbivore spatial spread

Abstract Little attention has been paid to the impact that constitutive and inducible plant resistance traits will have on herbivore spatial dynamics. We investigate mathematical models in which herbivore demographic rates and movement rates respond to host plant quality, which in turn is determined by constitutive and inducible resistance. Models with and without induced resistance yield the same analytic expression for the asymptotic speed at which a herbivore population will spread through an initially uninduced plant population, suggesting that induced resistance will have no effect on the rate of invasion of herbivores that respond to plant resistance on small spatial scales. In contrast, constitutive resistance will influence the speed of an invasion. If herbivore movement is quite sensitive to plant quality, an increase in constitutive resistance can actually accelerate the rate of herbivore spread even while it reduces the herbivore's intrinsic rate of increase. In other scenarios, the rate of invasion attains a maximum at intermediate levels of constitutive resistance. These results argue that our view of plant resistance should be broadened to include herbivore movement if we are to understand fully the implications of differences in resistance for the dynamics of herbivore populations in natural and managed settings.     

Analytic models for the patchy spread of plant disease

Plant epidemiologists have long been concerned with the patchy nature of plant disease epidemics. This paper presents a new analytical model for patchy plant epidemics (and patchy dynamics in general), using a second-order approximation to capture the spatial dynamics in terms of the densities and spatial covariances of healthy and infected hosts. Using these spatial moment equations helps us to explain the dynamic growth of patchiness during the early phase of the epidemic, and how the patchiness feeds back on the growth rate of the epidemic. Both underlying heterogeneity in the host spatial arrangement and dynamically generated heterogeneity in the spatial arrangement of infected plants initially accelerate but later decelerate the epidemic.     

Population structure and evolution of the Bacillus cereus group

Representative strains of the Bacillus cereus group of bacteria, including Bacillus anthracis (11 isolates), B. cereus (38 isolates), Bacillus mycoides (1 isolate), Bacillus thuringiensis (53 isolates from 17 serovars), and Bacillus weihenstephanensis (2 isolates) were assigned to 59 sequence types (STs) derived from the nucleotide sequences of seven alleles, glpF, gmk, ilvD, pta, pur, pycA, and tpi. Comparisons of the maximum likelihood (ML) tree of the concatenated sequences with individual gene trees showed more congruence than expected by chance, indicating a generally clonal structure to the population. The STs followed two major lines of descent. Clade 1 comprised B. anthracis strains, numerous B. cereus strains, and rare B. thuringiensis strains, while clade 2 included the majority of the B. thuringiensis strains together with some B. cereus strains. Other species were allocated to a third, heterogeneous clade. The ML trees and split decomposition analysis were used to assign STs to eight lineages within clades 1 and 2. These lineages were defined by bootstrap analysis and by a preponderance of fixed differences over shared polymorphisms among the STs. Lineages were named with reference to existing designations: Anthracis, Cereus I, Cereus II, Cereus III, Kurstaki, Sotto, Thuringiensis, and Tolworthi. Strains from some B. thuringiensis serovars were wholly or largely assigned to a single ST, for example, serovar aizawai isolates were assigned to ST-15, serovar kenyae isolates were assigned to ST-13, and serovar tolworthi isolates were assigned to ST-23, while other serovars, such as serovar canadensis, were genetically heterogeneous. We suggest a revision of the nomenclature in which the lineage and clone are recognized through name and ST designations in accordance with the clonal structure of the population.     

Population spread in patchy landscapes under a strong Allee effect

Many species of invasive insects establish and spread in regions around the world, causing enormous economical and environmental damage, in particular in forests. Some of these insects are subject to an Allee effect whereby the population must surpass a certain threshold in order to establish. Recent studies have examined the possibility of exploiting an Allee effect to improve existing control strategies. Forests and most other ecosystems show natural spatial variation, and human activities frequently increase the degree of spatial heterogeneity. It is therefore imperative to understand how the interplay between this spatial variation and individual movement behavior affects the overall speed of spread of an invasion. To this end, we study an integrodifference equation model in a patchy landscape and with Allee growth dynamics. Movement behavior of individuals varies according to landscape quality. Our study focuses on how the speed of the resulting traveling periodic wave depends on the interaction between landscape fragmentation, patch-dependent dispersal, and Allee population dynamics.     

Population structure of ice-breeding seals

The development of population genetic structure in ice-breeding seal species is likely to be shaped by a combination of breeding habitat and life-history characteristics. Species that return to breed on predictable fast-ice locations are more likely to exhibit natal fidelity than pack-ice-breeding species, which in turn facilitates the development of genetic differentiation between subpopulations. Other aspects of life history such as geographically distinct vocalizations, female gregariousness, and the potential for polygynous breeding may also facilitate population structure. Based on these factors, we predicted that fast-ice-breeding seal species (the Weddell and ringed seal) would show elevated genetic differentiation compared to pack-ice-breeding species (the leopard, Ross, crabeater and bearded seals). We tested this prediction using microsatellite analysis to examine population structure of these six ice-breeding species. Our results did not support this prediction. While none of the Antarctic pack-ice species showed statistically significant population structure, the bearded seal of the Arctic pack ice showed strong differentiation between subpopulations. Again in contrast, the fast-ice-breeding Weddell seal of the Antarctic showed clear evidence for genetic differentiation while the ringed seal, breeding in similar habitat in the Arctic, did not. These results suggest that the development of population structure in ice-breeding phocid seals is a more complex outcome of the interplay of phylogenetic and ecological factors than can be predicted on the basis of breeding substrate and life-history characteristics.     

Population structure of eastern Sicily

A sample of 465 persons from Eastern Sicily was studied for 11 red-cell enzymes, namely GLO, GPT, EsD, PGP, PGD, Dia, AcP, PGM, SOD, CAI and CAII. The allele frequencies were compared with those of other Italian populations and showed that the island is homogeneous with the mainland for these systems. The rate of heterozygosity was studied as a function of interparental distance; although high (0.77) the correlation did not reach significance.     

Population structure of Francisella tularensis

We have sequenced fragments of five metabolic housekeeping genes and two genes encoding outer membrane proteins from 81 isolates of Francisella tularensis, representing all four subspecies. Phylogenetic clustering of gene sequences from F. tularensis subsp. tularensis and F. tularensis subsp. holarctica aligned well with subspecies affiliations. In contrast, F. tularensis subsp. novicida and F. tularensis subsp. mediasiatica were indicated to be phylogenetically incoherent taxa. Incongruent gene trees and mosaic structures of housekeeping genes provided evidence for genetic recombination in F. tularensis.     

Population structure of pierid butterflies

Summary Mark-release-recapture techniques were used to study alfalfa pest populations of Colias philodice eriphyle. Two new methods for estimating relative catchability and residence rates were used to compare males to females. The results show that: (1) both sexes had limited dispersal, with mean individual ranges less than 100 m; (2) males were more abundant than females; (3) males and females had similar residence times; (4) males were more catchable than females in uncut fields, but not in cut fields. Explanations for the differences between the sexes are considered. Females may be less catchable in uncut fields because they spend less time in flight than males. Males may be more abundant than females because they develop faster, and may have lower pre-adult mortality. The differences between the sexes are discussed with respect to reproductive strategy. Comparisons with non-pest C.p. eriphyle show differences between pest and non-pest populations. Pest C.p. eriphyle were more sedentary. The residence times were similar for pest and non-pest populations, but pest C.p. eriphyle probably have longer reproductive life-spans. Mid-summer broods of the pest population were partially overlapping; the non-pest population has discrete broods. Pest population density varied less between years than non-pest population density. The differences between pest and non-pest C.p. eriphyle support the idea of ecological diversity among conspecific populations.     

黄山松种群结构与动态研究

以“空间代替时间”的方法,以种群径级结构代替年龄结构,采用静态生命表和生存分析的方法,探讨了天柱山国家森林公园黄山松种群结构和动态规律。结果表明,随海拔升高,黄山松种群密度增大,径级分布范围减小,种群存活曲线由Deevey-Ⅱ型之间过渡到Deevey—Ⅰ型,种群由稳定型过渡为增长型。表明由低海拔向高海拔,黄山松种群处于不同的演替和发展阶段。     

Patterns of spread of coral disease in the Florida Keys

Reefs in the Florida Keys are experiencing a dramatic increase in the number of localities and number of species with coral disease. In extensive surveys from Key Largo to Key West in 160 stations at 40 randomly chosen sites, there has been a dramatic increase in (1) the number of locations exhibiting disease (82% of all stations are now affected, a 404% increase over 1996 values), (2) the number of species affected (85% of all species are now affected, a 218% increase over 1996 values), and (3) the rate of coral mortality (the deep fore-reef at Carysfort experienced a 60% reduction of living coral cover during the survey). Two null hypotheses (1) that the incidence of disease has remained constant through time and (2) that the apparent increase in disease is due to a lack of comparable earlier data, are both falsified. Different diseases exhibit different patterns of spread: some diseases (e.g. black band) exhibit low incidence and jump rapidly between sites; other diseases (e.g. white pox) exhibit patchy distributions and increase in frequency at affected sites from one year to the next. The central question of why so many corals are becoming simultaneously susceptible to a host of marine pathogens remains unanswered.