Past and future evolution of Abies alba forests in Europe – comparison of a dynamic vegetation model with palaeo data and observations

Information on how species distributions and ecosystem services are impacted by anthropogenic climate change is important for adaptation planning. Palaeo data suggest that Abies alba formed forests under significantly warmer‐than‐present conditions in Europe and might be a native substitute for widespread drought‐sensitive temperate and boreal tree species such as beech (Fagus sylvatica) and spruce (Picea abies) under future global warming conditions. Here, we combine pollen and macrofossil data, modern observations, and results from transient simulations with the LPX‐Bern dynamic global vegetation model to assess past and future distributions of A. alba in Europe. LPX‐Bern is forced with climate anomalies from a run over the past 21 000 years with the Community Earth System Model, modern climatology, and with 21st‐century multimodel ensemble results for the high‐emission RCP8.5 and the stringent mitigation RCP2.6 pathway. The simulated distribution for present climate encompasses the modern range of A. alba, with the model exceeding the present distribution in north‐western and southern Europe. Mid‐Holocene pollen data and model results agree for southern Europe, suggesting that at present, human impacts suppress the distribution in southern Europe. Pollen and model results both show range expansion starting during the Bølling–Allerød warm period, interrupted by the Younger Dryas cold, and resuming during the Holocene. The distribution of A. alba expands to the north‐east in all future scenarios, whereas the potential (currently unrealized) range would be substantially reduced in southern Europe under RCP8.5. A. alba maintains its current range in central Europe despite competition by other thermophilous tree species. Our combined palaeoecological and model evidence suggest that A. alba may ensure important ecosystem services including stand and slope stability, infrastructure protection, and carbon sequestration under significantly warmer‐than‐present conditions in central Europe.     

Modelling the probability distribution of the number of DNA double-strand breaks due to sporadic alkylation of nucleotide bases

Metabolites and certain chemical agents (for example methyl methanesulfonate) can induce nucleotide bases on chromosomal strands to become alkylated. These alkylated sites have the potential to become single-strand chromosomal breaks, a form of DNA damage, if they are exposed to a sufficient temperature in vitro. It has been proposed that a single-strand break (SSB) sufficiently close to another SSB on the opposite chromosomal strand will form a double-strand break (DSB). DNA repair mechanisms are less able to repair DSBs compared to SSBs. Because of the complex three-dimensional structure of DNA, some chromosomal regions are more susceptible to alkylation than others. A question of interest is therefore whether these alkylated bases are randomly distributed or tend to be clustered. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis allows the number of DNA fragments (and hence the number of DSBs) to be observed directly. The randomness of alkylation events can therefore be tested using the standard statistical hypothesis-testing framework. Under the null hypothesis, that the SSBs are randomly distributed on each of the strands, we can calculate the probability of observing a number of DSBs at least as large as that observed and hence the associated p-value. Previously, the probability distribution of the number of DSBs has been determined by Monte Carlo simulations; when considering the whole genome this can be very time consuming. In this paper, we theoretically derive an approximation to the distribution enabling appropriate probabilities to be calculated quickly. Based on previous findings we assume that the number of breaks on each strand is small compared to the number of nucleotide bases. We show that our method can give the correct probability distribution when alkylation events are relatively rare, discuss how rare these events have to be and suggest potential extensions to the model when a greater proportion of bases are alkylated.     

A dynamic global vegetation model for use with climate models: concepts and description of simulated vegetation dynamics

Changes in vegetation structure and biogeography due to climate change feedback to alter climate by changing fluxes of energy, moisture, and momentum between land and atmosphere. While the current class of land process models used with climate models parameterizes these fluxes in detail, these models prescribe surface vegetation and leaf area from data sets. In this paper, we describe an approach in which ecological concepts from a global vegetation dynamics model are added to the land component of a climate model to grow plants interactively. The vegetation dynamics model is the Lund–Potsdam–Jena (LPJ) dynamic global vegetation model. The land model is the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Land Surface Model (LSM). Vegetation is defined in terms of plant functional types. Each plant functional type is represented by an individual plant with the average biomass, crown area, height, and stem diameter (trees only) of its population, by the number of individuals in the population, and by the fractional cover in the grid cell. Three time‐scales (minutes, days, and years) govern the processes. Energy fluxes, the hydrologic cycle, and carbon assimilation, core processes in LSM, occur at a 20 min time step. Instantaneous net assimilated carbon is accumulated annually to update vegetation once a year. This is carried out with the addition of establishment, resource competition, growth, mortality, and fire parameterizations from LPJ. The leaf area index is updated daily based on prevailing environmental conditions, but the maximum value depends on the annual vegetation dynamics. The coupling approach is successful. The model simulates global biogeography, net primary production, and dynamics of tundra, boreal forest, northern hardwood forest, tropical rainforest, and savanna ecosystems, which are consistent with observations. This suggests that the model can be used with a climate model to study biogeophysical feedbacks in the climate system related to vegetation dynamics.     

Multi‐model comparison highlights consistency in predicted effect of warming on a semi‐arid shrub

A number of modeling approaches have been developed to predict the impacts of climate change on species distributions, performance, and abundance. The stronger the agreement from models that represent different processes and are based on distinct and independent sources of information, the greater the confidence we can have in their predictions. Evaluating the level of confidence is particularly important when predictions are used to guide conservation or restoration decisions. We used a multi‐model approach to predict climate change impacts on big sagebrush (Artemisia tridentata), the dominant plant species on roughly 43 million hectares in the western United States and a key resource for many endemic wildlife species. To evaluate the climate sensitivity of A. tridentata, we developed four predictive models, two based on empirically derived spatial and temporal relationships, and two that applied mechanistic approaches to simulate sagebrush recruitment and growth. This approach enabled us to produce an aggregate index of climate change vulnerability and uncertainty based on the level of agreement between models. Despite large differences in model structure, predictions of sagebrush response to climate change were largely consistent. Performance, as measured by change in cover, growth, or recruitment, was predicted to decrease at the warmest sites, but increase throughout the cooler portions of sagebrush's range. A sensitivity analysis indicated that sagebrush performance responds more strongly to changes in temperature than precipitation. Most of the uncertainty in model predictions reflected variation among the ecological models, raising questions about the reliability of forecasts based on a single modeling approach. Our results highlight the value of a multi‐model approach in forecasting climate change impacts and uncertainties and should help land managers to maximize the value of conservation investments.     

Satellite microwave detection of boreal forest recovery from the extreme 2004 wildfires in Alaska and Canada

The rate of vegetation recovery from boreal wildfire influences terrestrial carbon cycle processes and climate feedbacks by affecting the surface energy budget and land‐atmosphere carbon exchange. Previous forest recovery assessments using satellite optical‐infrared normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and tower CO₂ eddy covariance techniques indicate rapid vegetation recovery within 5–10 years, but these techniques are not directly sensitive to changes in vegetation biomass. Alternatively, the vegetation optical depth (VOD) parameter from satellite passive microwave remote sensing can detect changes in canopy biomass structure and may provide a useful metric of post‐fire vegetation response to inform regional recovery assessments. We analyzed a multi‐year (2003–2010) satellite VOD record from the NASA AMSR‐E (Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer for EOS) sensor to estimate forest recovery trajectories for 14 large boreal fires from 2004 in Alaska and Canada. The VOD record indicated initial post‐fire canopy biomass recovery within 3–7 years, lagging NDVI recovery by 1–5 years. The VOD lag was attributed to slower non‐photosynthetic (woody) and photosynthetic (foliar) canopy biomass recovery, relative to the faster canopy greenness response indicated from the NDVI. The duration of VOD recovery to pre‐burn conditions was also directly proportional (P < 0.01) to satellite (moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer) estimated tree cover loss used as a metric of fire severity. Our results indicate that vegetation biomass recovery from boreal fire disturbance is generally slower than reported from previous assessments based solely on satellite optical‐infrared remote sensing, while the VOD parameter enables more comprehensive assessments of boreal forest recovery.     

Revision of the central Mediterranean xerothermic cliff vegetation

Questions

What are the syntaxonomic and synchorological patterns of the xerothermic chasmophytic vegetation in the central part of the Mediterranean Basin? What are the diagnostic species of the high‐rank syntaxa of Asplenietalia glandulosi, Onosmetalia frutescentis and Centaureo dalmaticae‐Campanuletalia pyramidalis?

Location

Mediterranean coastal and subcoastal areas of southern France, Italy, Malta, Slovenia, Croatia, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Montenegro, Albania and of mainland Greece.

Methods

The data set of 1,261 published relevés was analysed using hierarchical clustering (Flexible Beta method), involving a series of data transformations. Indicator species analysis was used to select the best dendrogram solution and identify diagnostic taxa of the main clusters. The dendrogram was interpreted from a syntaxonomic point of view, using nomenclatural type relevés as a basis. The NMDS ordination was performed in order to visualize the floristic relationships among associations and high‐rank syntaxa. MRPP was used to test for differences among alliances.

Results

The classification revealed four main clusters of relevés representing the chasmophytic vegetation of southern France, Sardinia and the northwestern part of Italy (Asplenienalia glandulosi/Asplenietalia glandulosi), the southwestern part of Italy and Malta (Tinguarrenalia siculae/Asplenietalia glandulosi), the Adriatic Basin area (Centaureo dalmaticae‐Campanuletalia pyramidalis) and the southern Balkans (Onosmetalia frutescentis). The NMDS ordination confirmed the overall pattern, while MRPP showed significant differences among the alliances of the above‐mentioned orders and suborders. The lists of diagnostic taxa of the high‐rank syntaxa were revised according to a supra‐national perspective.

Conclusions

The new syntaxonomic scheme provides a comprehensive overview of the chasmophytic vegetation of the central part of the Mediterranean Basin. This scheme mostly matches the recently published EuroVegChecklist, but also exhibits important novelties concerning the syntaxonomic position of some alliances (Dianthion rupicolae, Centaureion pentadactyli, Arenarion bertolonii and Caro‐Aurinion), and the floristic and chorological relationships among high‐rank syntaxa, with new revised sets of diagnostic taxa. This revision might be useful for further small‐scale phytosociological studies.

     

植被年际变化对蒸散发影响的模拟研究

利用通用陆面模式(CLM3.0)及其植被动力学模式(DGVM)研究植被覆盖度(FC)和叶面积指数(LAI)的年际变化对全球蒸散发的影响。设计两套实验方案,其植被的FC和LAI的气候态相同,但一套实验中植被的FC和LAI有年际变化,而对照实验中则没有。结果表明:(1)在草、灌木、树占优势的地区植被FC年际变化依次减小;LAI年际变化较大的地区集中在草和灌木覆盖的地区,在落叶林地区,春秋两季植被LAI的年际变化也较大。(2)全球树占优势的大部分地区,植被的年际变化使得年平均蒸散发和地表蒸发增加、冠层蒸发和蒸腾减少;而在灌木和草覆盖区,变化则大致相反。(3)低纬度地区蒸散发季节循环变化比较明显,而北半球中纬度地区,蒸散发变化明显区随着纬度增加而在时间上向后推延。(4)FC和LAI年际变化较大时,蒸散发及地表蒸发降低,而蒸腾增加;这些差异随FC和LAI年际变化的增加而增加。单点分析进一步表明植被年际变化不仅改变蒸散发的多年平均值,同时改变其分量间的相对比例。     

Feeding patterns of elephants at the Atherstone Collaborative Nature Reserve

The African savannah elephant (Loxodonta africana Blumenbach) is a generalist herbivore that relies on widely distributed resources. Vegetation decline, aggravated by these elephants, can compromise local conservation efforts. Thus it imperative to understand the factors that drive them to consume specific plant species and plant parts. The objective of our study was to investigate the feeding patterns of African savannah elephants in the enclosed bushveld savannah at the Atherstone Collaborative Nature Reserve in South Africa. For 1 year, we examined elephant selection of woody versus herbaceous vegetation, and identified which plant species and parts were preferentially consumed. We accomplished this by directly observing feeding elephants, and by utilizing data collected on elephant footprints, dung piles, stripped bark and broken branches. We further conducted vegetation surveys to determine selection frequency relative to species abundance. Elephants showed a preference for different plant parts consumption in the feeding plots. In total, leaves, branches and bark contributed mostly to their diet. Seasonal selection patterns showed an increasing proportion of bark and branch consumption during the dry season.     

Regional scale patterns of fine root lifespan and turnover under current and future climate

Fine root dynamics control a dominant flux of carbon from plants and into soils and mediate potential uptake and cycling of nutrients and water in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding of these patterns is needed to accurately describe critical processes like productivity and carbon storage from ecosystem to global scales. However, limited observations of root dynamics make it difficult to define and predict patterns of root dynamics across broad spatial scales. Here, we combine species‐specific estimates of fine root dynamics with a model that predicts current distribution and future suitable habitat of temperate tree species across the eastern United States (US). Estimates of fine root lifespan and turnover are based on empirical observations and relationships with fine root and whole‐plant traits and apply explicitly to the fine root pool that is relatively short‐lived and most active in nutrient and water uptake. Results from the combined model identified patterns of faster root turnover rates in the North Central US and slower turnover rates in the Southeastern US. Portions of Minnesota, Ohio, and Pennsylvania were also predicted to experience >10% increases in root turnover rates given potential shifts in tree species composition under future climate scenarios while root turnover rates in other portions of the eastern US were predicted to decrease. Despite potential regional changes, the average estimates of root lifespan and turnover for the entire study area remained relatively stable between the current and future climate scenarios. Our combined model provides the first empirically based, spatially explicit, and spatially extensive estimates of fine root lifespan and turnover and is a potentially powerful tool allowing researchers to identify reasonable approximations of forest fine root turnover in areas where no direct observations are available. Future efforts should focus on reducing uncertainty in estimates of root dynamics by better understanding how climate and soil factors drive variability in root dynamics of different species.     

Estimation of density threshold of gregarization of desert locust hoppers from field sampling in Mauritania

For desert locusts, Schistocerca gregaria (Forskål) (Orthoptera: Acrididae), the hopper density threshold of gregarization remains poorly documented. Field sampling was carried out in traditional seasonal breeding areas of Mauritania during two successive years without invasion to approximate the gregarization threshold. Hopper densities were assessed at numerous sampling sites. Vegetation was also sampled to characterize the habitats. Hopper behavior was analyzed in situ with the help of a behavioral circular arena to test our assumptions on empirical locust phases determination based on physical appearance (coloration and behavior) following FAO guidelines. The results provided a critical density value around 2.45 hoppers m^?2, above which gregarious hoppers were expected to be seen more frequently in nature. Hopper density was confirmed as the main factor explaining the presence of gregarious individuals. The level of involvement of vegetation parameters such as plant density, basal area, volume, distance between plants, greenness, or combinations of these indicators was low in explaining the observation of gregarious hoppers compared with hopper density. Vegetation cover and height were the only vegetation characteristics that could enhance the prediction of phase status with hopper density. The hoppers' phase determined from their behavior observed in the arena was similar to that characterized through FAO guidelines phase assessment, making consistent the field sampling method. Additionnally, the use of this arena illustrated that the grouping behavior of hoppers is a gradual response to density. This study can be seen as a step forward in the estimation of hopper density thresholds of gregarization in the field. This should improve the decision making for intervention during preventive control operations.     

Protocols for Use of Potamogeton perfoliatus and Ruppia maritima Seeds in Large‐Scale Restoration

Restoration of submerged aquatic vegetation from seed has been hampered by a lack of information on the appropriate conditions for collecting, processing, and storing seeds prior to dispersal. Seeds must be processed and stored under conditions that maintain seed viability, meet dormancy requirements, and prevent premature germination. This study examined the effects of collection date, processing technique, aeration, storage and induction temperature and salinity, and storage period on seed germination of two mesohaline aquatic species, Potamogeton perfoliatus and Ruppia maritima. Collection date and processing technique were significant factors affecting seed yield from donor populations. Seeds of both species remained viable and germinated best when stored at 4°C, and then exposed to freshwater induction conditions. However, their responses to other factors differed. Aeration during storage was necessary in order to maintain viability of P. perfoliatus seeds, whereas it was unnecessary for R. maritima seeds. Storage in freshwater at 4°C prevented germination of P. perfoliatus seeds, while high salinity during cold storage was necessary to minimize premature germination of R. maritima. Mean germination time of P. perfoliatus was dependent on storage salinity; in contrast, mean germination time of R. maritima seeds was dependent on induction salinity. These differences indicate that the methods required to produce large quantities of underwater plant seed amenable to large‐scale restoration efforts must be tailored to the specific requirements of individual species and must consider the range of processes from initial harvest through seed testing prior to field establishment.     

Experimental transplants reveal strong environmental effects on the growth of non‐vascular epiphytes in Afromontane forests

Transplant studies can provide valuable information on the growth responses of epiphytic bryophytes and lichens to environmental factors. We studied the growth of six epiphyte species at three sites in moist Afromontane forests of Taita Hills, Kenya. With 558 pendant transplants, we documented the growth of four bryophytes and two lichens over 1 yr. The transplants were placed into the lower canopy of one forest site in an upper montane zone, and two forest sites in a lower montane zone. Several pendant moss species grew very well in the cool and humid environment of the upper montane forest, with some transplants more than doubling their biomass during the year. Conversely, all transplanted taxa performed poorly in the lower montane zone, presumably because of the unfavorable combination of ample moisture with excessive warmth and insufficient light which characterizes the lower canopy in dense lower montane forests. The results demonstrate that pendant transplants can be used for monitoring growth of non‐vascular epiphytes in tropical forests. The starting weight of 0.25 g for pendant transplants worked well and can be recommended for future studies.     

A new species of Polygala L. (Polygalaceae) from south‐west Anatolia

Polygala peshmenii Eren, Parolly, Raus & Kürschner is described and illustrated as a new species from Antalya province in south‐west Anatolia, Turkey. Within subgenus Polygala section Polygala, it seems to be taxonomically quite isolated. As far as the Flora of Turkey area is concerned, technical comparison can be made with the informal P. alpestris Rchb. and P. vulgaris L. groups. The habitat conditions of P. peshmenii and its conservation status are considered. © 2008 The Linnean Society of London, Botanical Journal of the Linnean Society, 2008, 158 , 82–86.     

Observations of responses to re‐introducing fire in a Basalt Plains grassland after the removal of grazing: Implications for restoration

Natural grasslands in southern Australia commonly exist in altered states. One widespread altered state is grassland pasture dominated by cool‐season (C3) native grasses maintained by ongoing grazing. This study explores the consequences of removing grazing and introducing fire as a conservation management tool for such a site. We examined the abundance of two native and three exotic species, across a mosaic of fire regimes that occurred over a three‐year period: unburnt, summer wild‐fire (>2 years previous), autumn management fire (<1 year previously) and burnt in both fires. Given that one aim of conservation management is to increase native species at the expense of exotics, the impacts of the fires were largely positive. Native grasses were at higher cover levels in the fire‐managed vegetation than in the unburnt vegetation. Of the three exotic species, one was consistently at lower density in the burnt plots compared to the unburnt plots, while the others were lower only in those plots burnt in summer. The results show that the response of a species varies significantly between different fire events, and that the effects of one fire can persist through subsequent fires. Importantly, some of the effects were large, with changes in the density of plants of over 100‐fold. Fire is potentially a cost‐effective tool to assist the ecological restoration of retired grassland pastures at large scales.     

Large‐scale variations in the vegetation growing season and annual cycle of atmospheric CO2 at high northern latitudes from 1950 to 2011

We combine satellite and ground observations during 1950–2011 to study the long‐term links between multiple climate (air temperature and cryospheric dynamics) and vegetation (greenness and atmospheric CO₂ concentrations) indicators of the growing season of northern ecosystems (>45°N) and their connection with the carbon cycle. During the last three decades, the thermal potential growing season has lengthened by about 10.5 days (P < 0.01, 1982–2011), which is unprecedented in the context of the past 60 years. The overall lengthening has been stronger and more significant in Eurasia (12.6 days, P < 0.01) than North America (6.2 days, P > 0.05). The photosynthetic growing season has closely tracked the pace of warming and extension of the potential growing season in spring, but not in autumn when factors such as light and moisture limitation may constrain photosynthesis. The autumnal extension of the photosynthetic growing season since 1982 appears to be about half that of the thermal potential growing season, yielding a smaller lengthening of the photosynthetic growing season (6.7 days at the circumpolar scale, P < 0.01). Nevertheless, when integrated over the growing season, photosynthetic activity has closely followed the interannual variations and warming trend in cumulative growing season temperatures. This lengthening and intensification of the photosynthetic growing season, manifested principally over Eurasia rather than North America, is associated with a long‐term increase (22.2% since 1972, P < 0.01) in the amplitude of the CO₂ annual cycle at northern latitudes. The springtime extension of the photosynthetic and potential growing seasons has apparently stimulated earlier and stronger net CO₂ uptake by northern ecosystems, while the autumnal extension is associated with an earlier net release of CO₂ to the atmosphere. These contrasting responses may be critical in determining the impact of continued warming on northern terrestrial ecosystems and the carbon cycle.     

Robust geographical determinants of infection prevalence and a contrasting latitudinal diversity gradient for haemosporidian parasites in Western Palearctic birds

Identifying robust environmental predictors of infection probability is central to forecasting and mitigating the ongoing impacts of climate change on vector‐borne disease threats. We applied phylogenetic hierarchical models to a data set of 2,171 Western Palearctic individual birds from 47 species to determine how climate and landscape variation influence infection probability for three genera of haemosporidian blood parasites (Haemoproteus, Leucocytozoon, and Plasmodium). Our comparative models found compelling evidence that birds in areas with higher vegetation density (captured by the normalized difference vegetation index [NDVI]) had higher likelihoods of carrying parasite infection. Magnitudes of this relationship were remarkably similar across parasite genera considering that these parasites use different arthropod vectors and are widely presumed to be epidemiologically distinct. However, we also uncovered key differences among genera that highlighted complexities in their climate responses. In particular, prevalences of Haemoproteus and Plasmodium showed strong but contrasting relationships with winter temperatures, supporting mounting evidence that winter warming is a key environmental filter impacting the dynamics of host‐parasite interactions. Parasite phylogenetic community diversities demonstrated a clear but contrasting latitudinal gradient, with Haemoproteus diversity increasing towards the equator and Leucocytozoon diversity increasing towards the poles. Haemoproteus diversity also increased in regions with higher vegetation density, supporting our evidence that summer vegetation density is important for structuring the distributions of these parasites. Ongoing variation in winter temperatures and vegetation characteristics will probably have far‐reaching consequences for the transmission and spread of vector‐borne diseases.     

Alteration and Recovery of Slash Pile Burn Sites in the Restoration of a Fire‐Maintained Ecosystem

Restoration practices incorporating timber harvest (e.g. to remove undesirable species or reduce tree densities) may generate unmerchantable wood debris that is piled and burned for fuel reduction. Slash pile burns are common in longleaf pine ecosystem restoration that involves hardwood removal before reintroduction of frequent prescribed fire. In this context, long‐lasting effects of slash pile burns may complicate restoration outcomes due to unintended alterations to vegetation, soils, and the soil seed bank. In this study, our objectives were to (1) examine alterations to the soil seed bank, soil physical and chemical characteristics, and initial vegetation recolonization following burn and (2) determine the rate of return of soil and vegetation characteristics to pre‐burn conditions. We found that burning of slash piles (composed of scores of whole trees) results in elevated nutrient levels and significant impacts on vegetation and the soil seed bank, which remain evident for at least 6 years following burn. In this ecosystem, formerly weakly acidic soils become neutral to basic and levels of P remain significantly higher. Following an initial decrease after burn, total soil N increases with time since burn. These changes suggest that not only does pile burning create a fire scar initially devoid of biota, but it also produces an altered soil chemical environment, with possible consequences for long‐term ecosystem restoration efforts in landscapes including numerous fire scars. To facilitate restoration trajectories, further adaptive management to incorporate native plant propagules or suppress encroaching hardwoods within fire scars may be warranted in fire‐dependent ecosystems.     

Methane indicator values for peatlands: a comparison of species and functional groups

Previous studies have shown a correspondence between the abundance of particular plant species and methane flux. Here, we apply multivariate analyses, and weighted averaging, to assess the suitability of vegetation composition as a predictor of methane flux. We developed a functional classification of the vegetation, in terms of a number of plant traits expected to influence methane production and transport, and compared this with a purely taxonomic classification at species level and higher. We applied weighted averaging and indirect and direct ordination approaches to six sites in the United Kingdom, and found good relationships between methane flux and vegetation composition (classified both taxonomically and functionally). Plant species and functional groups also showed meaningful responses to management and experimental treatments. In addition to the United Kingdom, we applied the functional group classification across different geographical regions (Canada and the Netherlands) to assess the generality of the method. Again, the relationship appeared good at the site level, suggesting some general applicability of the functional classification. The method seems to have the potential for incorporation into large‐scale (national) greenhouse gas accounting programmes (in relation to peatland condition/management) using vegetation mapping schemes. The results presented here strongly suggest that robust predictive models can be derived using plant species data (for use in national‐scale studies). For trans‐national‐scale studies, where the taxonomic assemblage of vegetation differs widely between study sites, a functional classification of plant species data provides an appropriate basis for predictive models of methane flux.