The Impact of Prior Information on Estimates of Disease Transmissibility Using Bayesian Tools

The basic reproductive number (R₀) and the distribution of the serial interval (SI) are often used to quantify transmission during an infectious disease outbreak. In this paper, we present estimates of R₀ and SI from the 2003 SARS outbreak in Hong Kong and Singapore, and the 2009 pandemic influenza A(H1N1) outbreak in South Africa using methods that expand upon an existing Bayesian framework. This expanded framework allows for the incorporation of additional information, such as contact tracing or household data, through prior distributions. The results for the R₀ and the SI from the influenza outbreak in South Africa were similar regardless of the prior information (R^0 = 1.36–1.46, μ^ = 2.0–2.7, μ^ = mean of the SI). The estimates of R₀ and μ for the SARS outbreak ranged from 2.0–4.4 and 7.4–11.3, respectively, and were shown to vary depending on the use of contact tracing data. The impact of the contact tracing data was likely due to the small number of SARS cases relative to the size of the contact tracing sample.     

Rhinos in the Parks: An Island-Wide Survey of the Last Wild Population of the Sumatran Rhinoceros

In the 200 years since the Sumatran rhinoceros was first scientifically described (Fisher 1814), the range of the species has contracted from a broad region in Southeast Asia to three areas on the island of Sumatra and one in Kalimantan, Indonesia. Assessing population and spatial distribution of this very rare species is challenging because of their elusiveness and very low population number. Using an occupancy model with spatial dependency, we assessed the fraction of the total landscape occupied by Sumatran rhinos over a 30,345-km² survey area and the effects of covariates in the areas where they are known to occur. In the Leuser Landscape (surveyed in 2007), the model averaging result of conditional occupancy estimate was ψ^(SE[ψ^])=0.151(0.109) or 2,371.47 km², and the model averaging result of replicated level detection probability p^(SE[p^])=0.252(0.267); in Way Kambas National Park—2008: ψ^(SE[ψ^])=0.468(0.165) or 634.18 km², and p^(SE[p^])=0.138(0.571); and in Bukit Barisan Selatan National Park—2010: ψ^(SE[ψ^])=0.322(0.049) or 819.67 km², and p^(SE[p^])=0.365(0.42). In the Leuser Landscape, rhino occurrence was positively associated with primary dry land forest and rivers, and negatively associated with the presence of a road. In Way Kambas, occurrence was negatively associated with the presence of a road. In Bukit Barisan Selatan, occurrence was negatively associated with presence of primary dryland forest and rivers. Using the probabilities of site occupancy, we developed spatially explicit maps that can be used to outline intensive protection zones for in-situ conservation efforts, and provide a detailed assessment of conserving Sumatran rhinos in the wild. We summarize our core recommendation in four points: consolidate small population, strong protection, determine the percentage of breeding females, and recognize the cost of doing nothing. To reduce the probability of poaching, here we present only the randomized location of site level occupancy in our result while retaining the overall estimation of occupancy for a given area.     

A Novel Method for Quantifying the Inhaled Dose of Air Pollutants Based on Heart Rate,Breathing Rate and Forced Vital Capacity

To better understand the interaction of physical activity and air pollution exposure, it is important to quantify the change in ventilation rate incurred by activity. In this paper, we describe a method for estimating ventilation using easily-measured variables such as heart rate (HR), breathing rate (f_B), and forced vital capacity (FVC). We recruited healthy adolescents to use a treadmill while we continuously measured HR, f_B, and the tidal volume (V_T) of each breath. Participants began at rest then walked and ran at increasing speed until HR was 160–180 beats per minute followed by a cool down period. The novel feature of this method is that minute ventilation (V˙E) was normalized by FVC. We used general linear mixed models with a random effect for subject and identified nine potential predictor variables that influence either V˙E or FVC. We assessed predictive performance with a five-fold cross-validation procedure. We used a brute force selection process to identify the best performing models based on cross-validation percent error, the Akaike Information Criterion and the p-value of parameter estimates. We found a two-predictor model including HR and f_B to have the best predictive performance (V˙E/FVC = -4.247+0.0595HR+0.226f_B, mean percent error = 8.1±29%); however, given the ubiquity of HR measurements, a one-predictor model including HR may also be useful (V˙E/FVC = -3.859+0.101HR, mean percent error = 11.3±36%).     

An Improved Fst Estimator

The fixation index F _st plays a central role in ecological and evolutionary genetic studies. The estimators of Wright (F^st1), Weir and Cockerham (F^st2), and Hudson et al. (F^st3) are widely used to measure genetic differences among different populations, but all have limitations. We propose a minimum variance estimator F^stm using F^st1 and F^st2. We tested F^stm in simulations and applied it to 120 unrelated East African individuals from Ethiopia and 11 subpopulations in HapMap 3 with 464,642 SNPs. Our simulation study showed that F^stm has smaller bias than F^st2 for small sample sizes and smaller bias than F^st1 for large sample sizes. Also, F^stm has smaller variance than F^st2 for small F _st values and smaller variance than F^st1 for large F _st values. We demonstrated that approximately 30 subpopulations and 30 individuals per subpopulation are required in order to accurately estimate F _st.     

Preload-Based Starling-Like Control for Rotary Blood Pumps: Numerical Comparison with Pulsatility Control and Constant Speed Operation

In this study, we evaluate a preload-based Starling-like controller for implantable rotary blood pumps (IRBPs) using left ventricular end-diastolic pressure (PLVED) as the feedback variable. Simulations are conducted using a validated mathematical model. The controller emulates the response of the natural left ventricle (LV) to changes in PLVED. We report the performance of the preload-based Starling-like controller in comparison with our recently designed pulsatility controller and constant speed operation. In handling the transition from a baseline state to test states, which include vigorous exercise, blood loss and a major reduction in the LV contractility (LVC), the preload controller outperformed pulsatility control and constant speed operation in all three test scenarios. In exercise, preload-control achieved an increase of 54% in mean pump flow (QP-) with minimum loading on the LV, while pulsatility control achieved only a 5% increase in flow and a decrease in mean pump speed. In a hemorrhage scenario, the preload control maintained the greatest safety margin against LV suction. PLVED for the preload controller was 4.9 mmHg, compared with 0.4 mmHg for the pulsatility controller and 0.2 mmHg for the constant speed mode. This was associated with an adequate mean arterial pressure (MAP) of 84 mmHg. In transition to low LVC, QP- for preload control remained constant at 5.22 L/min with a PLVED of 8.0 mmHg. With regards to pulsatility control, QP- fell to the nonviable level of 2.4 L/min with an associated PLVED of 16 mmHg and a MAP of 55 mmHg. Consequently, pulsatility control was deemed inferior to constant speed mode with a PLVED of 11 mmHg and a QP- of 5.13 L/min in low LVC scenario. We conclude that pulsatility control imposes a danger to the patient in the severely reduced LVC scenario, which can be overcome by using a preload-based Starling-like control approach.     

The Projection of a Test Genome onto a Reference Population and Applications to Humans and Archaic Hominins

We introduce a method for comparing a test genome with numerous genomes from a reference population. Sites in the test genome are given a weight, w, that depends on the allele frequency, x, in the reference population. The projection of the test genome onto the reference population is the average weight for each x, w¯(x). The weight is assigned in such a way that, if the test genome is a random sample from the reference population, then w¯(x)=1. Using analytic theory, numerical analysis, and simulations, we show how the projection depends on the time of population splitting, the history of admixture, and changes in past population size. The projection is sensitive to small amounts of past admixture, the direction of admixture, and admixture from a population not sampled (a ghost population). We compute the projections of several human and two archaic genomes onto three reference populations from the 1000 Genomes project—Europeans, Han Chinese, and Yoruba—and discuss the consistency of our analysis with previously published results for European and Yoruba demographic history. Including higher amounts of admixture between Europeans and Yoruba soon after their separation and low amounts of admixture more recently can resolve discrepancies between the projections and demographic inferences from some previous studies.     

Influence of Adjuvant Therapy in Cancer Survivors on Endothelial Function and Skeletal Muscle Deoxygenation

The cardiotoxic effects of adjuvant cancer treatments (i.e., chemotherapy and radiation treatment) have been well documented, but the effects on peripheral cardiovascular function are still unclear. We hypothesized that cancer survivors i) would have decreased resting endothelial function; and ii) altered muscle deoxygenation response during moderate intensity cycling exercise compared to cancer-free controls. A total of 8 cancer survivors (~70 months post-treatment) and 9 healthy controls completed a brachial artery FMD test, an index of endothelial-dependent dilation, followed by an incremental exercise test up to the ventilatory threshold (VT) on a cycle ergometer during which pulmonary V˙O2 and changes in near-infrared spectroscopy (NIRS)-derived microvascular tissue oxygenation (TOI), total hemoglobin concentration ([Hb]_total), and muscle deoxygenation ([HHb] ≈ fractional O₂ extraction) were measured. There were no significant differences in age, height, weight, and resting blood pressure between cancer survivors and control participants. Brachial artery FMD was similar between groups (P = 0.98). During exercise at the VT, TOI was similar between groups, but [Hb]_total and [HHb] were significantly decreased in cancer survivors compared to controls (P < 0.01) The rate of change for TOI (ΔTOIΔ/V˙O2) and [HHb] (Δ[HHb]/ΔV˙O2) relative to ΔV˙O2 were decreased in cancer survivors compared to controls (P = 0.02 and P = 0.03 respectively). In cancer survivors, a decreased skeletal muscle microvascular function was observed during moderate intensity cycling exercise. These data suggest that adjuvant cancer therapies have an effect on the integrated relationship between O₂ extraction, V˙O2 and O₂ delivery during exercise.     

Correlation of a Decline in Aerobic Capacity with Development of Emphysema in Patients with Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary Disease: A Prospective Observational Study

In patients with COPD, CT assessment of emphysema and airway disease is known to be associated with lung function and 6-minute walk distance. However, it remains to be determined whether low attenuation area (LAA) on CT is associated with aerobic capacity assessed using cardiopulmonary exercise testing (CPET). In this prospective observational study, we repeatedly conducted high-resolution CT and CPET using a treadmill in 81 COPD patients over a median interval of 3.5 years. Two investigators independently scored LAA on images obtained at the aortic arch level, tracheal bifurcation level, and supradiaphragmatic level. Grades for the images of each lung were added to yield the total LAA score. Total LAA score was negatively correlated with peak aerobic capacity (V˙O2) (p<0.001, r = -0.485). LAA scores of the upper (aortic arch level) and the lower (supradiaphragmatic level) lungs were both significantly associated with peak V˙O2. There was a significant correlation between total LAA score and peak CO₂ output (V˙CO2) (p<0.001, r = -0.433). Total LAA score was correlated with oxygen saturation at peak exercise (p<0.001, r = -0.634) and the estimated dead space fraction (p<0.001, r = 0.416). The mean annual change in total LAA score was significantly correlated with those in peak V˙O2 (p<0.001, r = -0.546) and peak V˙CO2 (p<0.001, r = -0.488). The extent of emphysema measured by CT was associated with the results of CPET. The time-dependent changes in CPET data were also correlated with that in total LAA score. CT assessment could be a non-invasive tool to predict aerobic capacity in patients with COPD.     

A Global Analysis of Deforestation in Moist Tropical Forest Protected Areas

Protected areas (PAs) have been established to conserve tropical forests, but their effectiveness at reducing deforestation is uncertain. To explore this issue, we combined high resolution data of global forest loss over the period 2000–2012 with data on PAs. For each PA we quantified forest loss within the PA, in buffer zones 1, 5, 10 and 15 km outside the PA boundary as well as a 1 km buffer within the PA boundary. We analysed 3376 tropical and subtropical moist forest PAs in 56 countries over 4 continents. We found that 73% of PAs experienced substantial deforestation pressure, with >0.1% a⁻¹ forest loss in the outer 1 km buffer. Forest loss within PAs was greatest in Asia (0.25% a⁻¹) compared to Africa (0.1% a⁻¹), the Neotropics (0.1% a⁻¹) and Australasia (Australia and Papua New Guinea; 0.03% a⁻¹). We defined performance (P) of a PA as the ratio of forest loss in the inner 1 km buffer compared to the loss that would have occurred in the absence of the PA, calculated as the loss in the outer 1 km buffer corrected for any difference in deforestation pressure between the two buffers. To remove the potential bias due to terrain, we analysed a subset of PAs (n = 1804) where slope and elevation in inner and outer 1 km buffers were similar (within 1° and 100 m, respectively). We found 41% of PAs in this subset reduced forest loss in the inner buffer by at least 25% compared to the expected inner buffer forest loss (P<0.75). Median performance (P˜) of subset reserves was 0.87, meaning a reduction in forest loss within the PA of 13%. We found PAs were most effective in Australasia (P˜=0.16), moderately successful in the Neotropics (P˜=0.72) and Africa (P˜=0.83), but ineffective in Asia (P˜=1). We found many countries have PAs that give little or no protection to forest loss, particularly in parts of Asia, west Africa and central America. Across the tropics, the median effectiveness of PAs at the national level improved with gross domestic product per capita. Whilst tropical and subtropical moist forest PAs do reduce forest loss, widely varying performance suggests substantial opportunities for improved protection, particularly in Asia.     

Reproductive biology of the horned viper,Cerastes cerastes gasperettii in the central region of Saudi Arabia

The reproductive biology of the horned viper, Cerastes cerastes gasperettii, in Riyadh region of Saudi Arabia was investigated over a period of one year. Study of reproductive cycle of male and female C. c. gasperettii revealed that the breeding season is relatively short (April and May). Thereafter females laid eggs by mid of July and hatching probably had taken place by the end of September. No activity was observed during winter, this may indicate just a single clutch per year. Relative testis weight to body weight was drastically increased (X¯ = 0.88%) during the peak of reproductive activity (May) where maximal expansion of seminiferous tubules was also attained during April and May (X¯ = 209 μm and 191 μm, respectively). Likewise, the ovarian activity was the highest during May where ovarian parameters were greater in terms of relative ovarian weight to body weight and ova diameter being 0.46% and 2.29 mm, respectively. Fat body weight was increased drastically just before the peak of reproductive activity then started to decline during June. It could be concluded that the harsh desert conditions and similar environments certainly affect reproductive activity of Saudi Arabian reptiles including snakes.     

Enhancement of Chemotactic Cell Aggregation by Haptotactic Cell-To-Cell Interaction

The crawling of biological cell is a complex phenomenon involving various biochemical and mechanical processes. Some of these processes are intrinsic to individual cells, while others pertain to cell-to-cell interactions and to their responses to extrinsically imposed cues. Here, we report an interesting aggregation dynamics of mathematical model cells, when they perform chemotaxis in response to an externally imposed global chemical gradient while they influence each other through a haptotaxis-mediated social interaction, which confers intriguing trail patterns. In the absence of the cell-to-cell interaction, the equilibrium population density profile fits well to that of a simple Keller-Segal population dynamic model, in which a chemotactic current density J→chemo∼∇p competes with a normal diffusive current density J→diff∼∇ρ, where p and ρ refer to the concentration of chemoattractant and population density, respectively. We find that the cell-to-cell interaction confers a far more compact aggregation resulting in a much higher peak equilibrium cell density. The mathematical model system is applicable to many biological systems such as swarming microglia and neutrophils or accumulating ants towards a localized food source.     

Endurance Training-Induced Increase in Circulating Irisin Levels Is Associated with Reduction of Abdominal Visceral Fat in Middle-Aged and Older Adults

To elucidate the effects of endurance training on circulating irisin levels in young and middle-aged/older adults, and to determine the association between endurance training-induced alteration of irisin and reduction in body fat. Twenty-five healthy young (age 21 ± 1 years; 16 men, 9 women) and 28 healthy middle-aged/older adults (age 67 ± 8 years; 12 men, 16 women) participated in the study. Each age cohort was divided into two groups: the endurance-training group (14 young, 14 middle-aged/older) and the control group. Subjects in the training groups completed an 8-week endurance-training program (cycling at 60-70% peak oxygen uptake [V˙O_2peak] for 45 min, 3 days/week). Before and after the intervention, we evaluated serum irisin level, V˙O_2peak, and body composition. The increase in V˙O_2peak in the young and middle-aged/older training groups after the intervention period was significantly greater than those in the young and middle-aged/older control groups (P < 0.05). Serum irisin level was significantly increased in the middle-aged/older training group after the intervention period (P < 0.01), but not in the young training group. Furthermore, in the middle-aged/older training group, the endurance training-induced reduction in visceral adipose tissue area was negatively correlated with the change in serum irisin level (r = −0.54, P < 0.05). These results suggest a possible role for secreted irisin in the exercise-induced alteration of abdominal visceral fat in middle-aged and older adults.     

Hunting,Exotic Carnivores,and Habitat Loss: Anthropogenic Effects on a Native Carnivore Community,Madagascar

The wide-ranging, cumulative, negative effects of anthropogenic disturbance, including habitat degradation, exotic species, and hunting, on native wildlife has been well documented across a range of habitats worldwide with carnivores potentially being the most vulnerable due to their more extinction prone characteristics. Investigating the effects of anthropogenic pressures on sympatric carnivores is needed to improve our ability to develop targeted, effective management plans for carnivore conservation worldwide. Utilizing photographic, line-transect, and habitat sampling, as well as landscape analyses and village-based bushmeat hunting surveys, we provide the first investigation of how multiple forms of habitat degradation (fragmentation, exotic carnivores, human encroachment, and hunting) affect carnivore occupancy across Madagascar’s largest protected area: the Masoala-Makira landscape. We found that as degradation increased, native carnivore occupancy and encounter rates decreased while exotic carnivore occupancy and encounter rates increased. Feral cats (Felis species) and domestic dogs (Canis familiaris) had higher occupancy than half of the native carnivore species across Madagascar’s largest protected landscape. Bird and small mammal encounter rates were negatively associated with exotic carnivore occupancy, but positively associated with the occupancy of four native carnivore species. Spotted fanaloka (Fossa fossana) occupancy was constrained by the presence of exotic feral cats and exotic small Indian civet (Viverricula indica). Hunting was intense across the four study sites where hunting was studied, with the highest rates for the small Indian civet (x¯ = 90 individuals consumed/year), the ring-tailed vontsira (Galidia elegans) (x¯ = 58 consumed/year), and the fosa (Cryptoprocta ferox) (x¯ = 31 consumed/year). Our modeling results suggest hunters target intact forest where carnivore occupancy, abundance, and species richness, are highest. These various anthropogenic pressures and their effects on carnivore populations, especially increases in exotic carnivores and hunting, have wide-ranging, global implications and demand effective management plans to target the influx of exotic carnivores and unsustainable hunting that is affecting carnivore populations across Madagascar and worldwide.     

A Bayesian method for identifying associations between response variables and bacterial community composition

Determining associations between intestinal bacteria and continuously measured physiological outcomes is important for understanding the bacteria-host relationship but is not straightforward since abundance data (compositional data) are not normally distributed. To address this issue, we developed a fully Bayesian linear regression model (BRACoD; Bayesian Regression Analysis of Compositional Data) with physiological measurements (continuous data) as a function of a matrix of relative bacterial abundances. Bacteria can be classified as operational taxonomic units or by taxonomy (genus, family, etc.). Bacteria associated with the physiological measurement were identified using a Bayesian variable selection method: Stochastic Search Variable Selection. The output is a list of inclusion probabilities (p^) and coefficients that indicate the strength of the association (β^included) for each bacterial taxa. Tests with simulated communities showed that adopting a cut point value of p^ ≥ 0.3 for identifying included bacteria optimized the true positive rate (TPR) while maintaining a false positive rate (FPR) of ≤ 5%. At this point, the chances of identifying non-contributing bacteria were low and all well-established contributors were included. Comparison with other methods showed that BRACoD (at p^ ≥ 0.3) had higher precision and a higher TPR than a commonly used center log transformed LASSO procedure (clr-LASSO) as well as higher TPR than an off-the-shelf Spike and Slab method after center log transformation (clr-SS). BRACoD was also less likely to include non-contributing bacteria that merely correlate with contributing bacteria. Analysis of a rat microbiome experiment identified 47 operational taxonomic units that contributed to fecal butyrate levels. Of these, 31 were positively and 16 negatively associated with butyrate. Consistent with their known role in butyrate metabolism, most of these fell within the Lachnospiraceae and Ruminococcaceae. We conclude that BRACoD provides a more precise and accurate method for determining bacteria associated with a continuous physiological outcome compared to clr-LASSO. It is more sensitive than a generalized clr-SS algorithm, although it has a higher FPR. Its ability to distinguish genuine contributors from correlated bacteria makes it better suited to discriminating bacteria that directly contribute to an outcome. The algorithm corrects for the distortions arising from compositional data making it appropriate for analysis of microbiome data.     

A Comparison between Conductive and Infrared Devices for Measuring Mean Skin Temperature at Rest,during Exercise in the Heat,and Recovery

PurposeSkin temperature assessment has historically been undertaken with conductive devices affixed to the skin. With the development of technology, infrared devices are increasingly utilised in the measurement of skin temperature. Therefore, our purpose was to evaluate the agreement between four skin temperature devices at rest, during exercise in the heat, and recovery.MethodsMean skin temperature (T-sk) was assessed in thirty healthy males during 30 min rest (24.0 ± 1.2°C, 56 ± 8%), 30 min cycle in the heat (38.0 ± 0.5°C, 41 ± 2%), and 45 min recovery (24.0 ± 1.3°C, 56 ± 9%). T-sk was assessed at four sites using two conductive devices (thermistors, iButtons) and two infrared devices (infrared thermometer, infrared camera).ResultsBland–Altman plots demonstrated mean bias ± limits of agreement between the thermistors and iButtons as follows (rest, exercise, recovery): -0.01 ± 0.04, 0.26 ± 0.85, -0.37 ± 0.98°C; thermistors and infrared thermometer: 0.34 ± 0.44, -0.44 ± 1.23, -1.04 ± 1.75°C; thermistors and infrared camera (rest, recovery): 0.83 ± 0.77, 1.88 ± 1.87°C. Pairwise comparisons of T-sk found significant differences (p < 0.05) between thermistors and both infrared devices during resting conditions, and significant differences between the thermistors and all other devices tested during exercise in the heat and recovery.ConclusionsThese results indicate poor agreement between conductive and infrared devices at rest, during exercise in the heat, and subsequent recovery. Infrared devices may not be suitable for monitoring T-sk in the presence of, or following, metabolic and environmental induced heat stress.     

A Microscopic Multiphase Diffusion Model of Viable Epidermis Permeability

A microscopic model of passive transverse mass transport of small solutes in the viable epidermal layer of human skin is formulated on the basis of a hexagonal array of cells (i.e., keratinocytes) bounded by 4-nm-thick, anisotropic lipid bilayers and separated by 1-μm layers of extracellular fluid. Gap junctions and tight junctions with adjustable permeabilities are included to modulate the transport of solutes with low membrane permeabilities. Two keratinocyte aspect ratios are considered to represent basal and spinous cells (longer) and granular cells (more flattened). The diffusion problem is solved in a unit cell using a coordinate system conforming to the hexagonal cross section, and an efficient two-dimensional treatment is applied to describe transport in both the cell membranes and intercellular spaces, given their thinness. Results are presented in terms of an effective diffusion coefficient, D¯epi, and partition coefficient, K¯epi/w, for a homogenized representation of the microtransport problem. Representative calculations are carried out for three small solutes—water, L-glucose, and hydrocortisone—covering a wide range of membrane permeability. The effective transport parameters and their microscopic interpretation can be employed within the context of existing three-layer models of skin transport to provide more realistic estimates of the epidermal concentrations of topically applied solutes.     

Cardiorespiratory Adaptations during Concurrent Aerobic and Strength Training in Men and Women

This study investigated the effects of endurance followed by strength training (ES, men n = 16; women n = 15), the reverse exercise order (SE, men n = 18, women n = 13) and concurrent endurance and strength training performed on alternating days (AD, men n = 21, women n = 18) on cardiorespiratory parameters. Peak oxygen consumption (V˙O_2peak) and oxygen consumption at sub-maximal power outputs (V˙O_2submax) of 50 to 175 Watts in men and 50 to 125 Watts in women were assessed during an incremental cycling test both before and after 24 weeks of training. Increases in V˙O_2peak in both men and women were statistically larger in AD (18±9% and 25±11%) compared to ES (7±9% and 12±12%, p = 0.002 and 0.009, respectively) and SE (7±9% and 10±8%, p = 0.005 and 0.008, respectively). No statistical group interaction was observed for V˙O_2submax in men, but in women V˙O_2submax was statistically lower at week 24 in ES compared to AD at 75 W (-2±6% vs. +3±6%, p = 0.027) and 125 W (-4±5% vs. +2±5%, p = 0.010). These findings indicate that endurance and strength training performed on alternating days may optimize the adaptations in V˙O_2peak in both sexes, while performing ES training in women may optimize cardiorespiratory fitness at sub-maximal power outputs.     

Genome-assisted prediction of a quantitative trait measured in parents and progeny: application to food conversion rate in chickens

Accuracy of prediction of yet-to-be observed phenotypes for food conversion rate (FCR) in broilers was studied in a genome-assisted selection context. Data consisted of FCR measured on the progeny of 394 sires with SNP information. A Bayesian regression model (Bayes A) and a semi-parametric approach (Reproducing kernel Hilbert Spaces regression, RKHS) using all available SNPs (p = 3481) were compared with a standard linear model in which future performance was predicted using pedigree indexes in the absence of genomic data. The RKHS regression was also tested on several sets of pre-selected SNPs (p = 400) using alternative measures of the information gain provided by the SNPs. All analyses were performed using 333 genotyped sires as training set, and predictions were made on 61 birds as testing set, which were sons of sires in the training set. Accuracy of prediction was measured as the Spearman correlation (r¯S) between observed and predicted phenotype, with its confidence interval assessed through a bootstrap approach. A large improvement of genome-assisted prediction (up to an almost 4-fold increase in accuracy) was found relative to pedigree index. Bayes A and RKHS regression were equally accurate (r¯S = 0.27) when all 3481 SNPs were included in the model. However, RKHS with 400 pre-selected informative SNPs was more accurate than Bayes A with all SNPs.