Muller's ratchet and the pattern of variation at a neutral locus

The levels and patterns of variation at a neutral locus are analyzed in a haploid asexual population undergoing accumulation of deleterious mutations due to Muller's ratchet. We find that the movement of Muller's ratchet can be associated with a considerable reduction in genetic diversity below classical neutral expectation. The extent to which variability is reduced is a function of the deleterious mutation rate, the fitness effects of the mutations, and the population size. Approximate analytical expressions for the expected genetic diversity are compared with simulation results under two different models of deleterious mutations: a model where all deleterious mutations have equal effects and a model where there are two classes of deleterious mutations. We also find that Muller's ratchet can produce a considerable distortion in the neutral frequency spectrum toward an excess of rare variants.     

Temporal variation in selection accelerates mutational decay by Muller's ratchet

Asexual species accumulate deleterious mutations through an irreversible process known as Muller's ratchet. Attempts to quantify the rate of the ratchet have ignored the role of temporal environmental heterogeneity even though it is common in nature and has the potential to affect overall ratchet rate. Here we examine Muller's ratchet in the context of conditional neutrality (i.e., mutations that are deleterious in some environmental conditions but neutral in others) as well as more subtle changes in the strength (but not sign) of selection. We find that temporal variation increases the rate of the ratchet (mutation accumulation) and the rate of fitness decline over that of populations experiencing constant selection of equivalent average strength. Temporal autocorrelation magnifies the effects of temporal heterogeneity and can allow the ratchet to operate at large population sizes in which it would be halted under constant selection. Classic studies of Muller's ratchet show that the rate of fitness decline is maximized when selection is of a low but intermediate strength. This relationship changes quantitatively with all forms of temporal heterogeneity studied and changes qualitatively when there is temporal autocorrelation in selection. In particular, the rate of fitness decline can increase indefinitely with the strength of selection with some forms of temporal heterogeneity. Our finding that temporal autocorrelation in selection dramatically increases ratchet rate and rate of fitness decline may help to explain the paucity of asexual taxa.     

The degeneration of asexual haploid populations and the speed of Muller's ratchet

The accumulation of deleterious mutations due to the process known as Muller's ratchet can lead to the degeneration of nonrecombining populations. We present an analytical approximation for the rate at which this process is expected to occur in a haploid population. The approximation is based on a diffusion equation and is valid when N exp(-u/s) > 1, where N is the population size, u is the rate at which deleterious mutations occur, and s is the effect of each mutation on fitness. Simulation results are presented to show that the approximation estimates the rate of the process better than previous approximations for values of mutation rates and selection coefficients that are compatible with the biological data. Under certain conditions, the ratchet can turn at a biologically significant rate when the deterministic equilibrium number of individuals free of mutations is substantially >100. The relevance of this process for the degeneration of Y or neo-Y chromosomes is discussed.     

Dynamic mutation-selection balance as an evolutionary attractor

The vast majority of mutations are deleterious and are eliminated by purifying selection. Yet in finite asexual populations, purifying selection cannot completely prevent the accumulation of deleterious mutations due to Muller's ratchet: once lost by stochastic drift, the most-fit class of genotypes is lost forever. If deleterious mutations are weakly selected, Muller's ratchet can lead to a rapid degradation of population fitness. Evidently, the long-term stability of an asexual population requires an influx of beneficial mutations that continuously compensate for the accumulation of the weakly deleterious ones. Hence any stable evolutionary state of a population in a static environment must involve a dynamic mutation-selection balance, where accumulation of deleterious mutations is on average offset by the influx of beneficial mutations. We argue that such a state can exist for any population size N and mutation rate U and calculate the fraction of beneficial mutations, ε, that maintains the balanced state. We find that a surprisingly low ε suffices to achieve stability, even in small populations in the face of high mutation rates and weak selection, maintaining a well-adapted population in spite of Muller's ratchet. This may explain the maintenance of mitochondria and other asexual genomes.     

The speed of Muller's ratchet with background selection, and the degeneration of Y chromosomes.

The rate of accumulation of deleterious mutations by Muller's ratchet is investigated in large asexual haploid populations, for a range of parameters with potential biological relevance. The rate of this process is studied by considering a very simple model in which mutations can have two types of effect: either strongly deleterious or mildly deleterious. It is shown that the rate of accumulation of mildly deleterious mutations can be greatly increased by the presence of strongly deleterious mutations, and that this can be predicted from the associated reduction in effective population size (the background selection effect). We also examine the rate of the ratchet when there are two classes of mutation of similar but unequal effects on fitness. The accuracy of analytical approximations for the rate of this process is analysed. Its possible role in causing the degeneration of Y and neo-Y chromosomes is discussed in the light of our present knowledge of deleterious mutation rates and selection coefficients.     

Kick-starting the ratchet: the fate of mutators in an asexual population

Muller's ratchet operates in asexual populations without intergenomic recombination. In this case, deleterious mutations will accumulate and population fitness will decline over time, possibly endangering the survival of the species. Mutator mutations, i.e., mutations that lead to an increased mutation rate, will play a special role for the behavior of the ratchet. First, they are part of the ratchet and can come to dominance through accumulation in the ratchet. Second, the fitness-loss rate of the ratchet is very sensitive to changes in the mutation rate and even a modest increase can easily set the ratchet in motion. In this article we simulate the interplay between fitness loss from Muller's ratchet and the evolution of the mutation rate from the fixation of mutator mutations. As long as the mutation rate is increased in sufficiently small steps, an accelerating ratchet and eventual extinction are inevitable. If this can be countered by antimutators, i.e., mutations that reduce the mutation rate, an equilibrium can be established for the mutation rate at some level that may allow survival. However, the presence of the ratchet amplifies fluctuations in the mutation rate and, even at equilibrium, these fluctuations can lead to dangerous bursts in the ratchet. We investigate the timescales of these processes and discuss the results with reference to the genome degradation of the aphid endosymbiont Buchnera aphidicola.     

Muller''s Ratchet, Epistasis and Mutation Effects

In this study, computer simulation is used to show that despite synergistic epistasis for fitness, Muller's ratchet can lead to lethal fitness loss in a population of asexuals through the accumulation of deleterious mutations. This result contradicts previous work that indicated that epistasis will halt the ratchet. The present results show that epistasis will not halt the ratchet provided that rather than a single deleterious mutation effect, there is a distribution of deleterious mutation effects with sufficient density near zero. In addition to epistasis and mutation distribution, the ability of Muller's ratchet to lead to the extinction of an asexual population under epistasis for fitness depends strongly on the expected number of offspring that survive to reproductive age. This strong dependence is not present in the nonepistatic model and suggests that interpreting the population growth parameter as fecundity is inadequate. Because a continuous distribution of mutation effects is used in this model, an emphasis is placed on the dynamics of the mutation effect distribution rather than on the dynamics of the number of least mutation loaded individuals. This perspective suggests that current models of gene interaction are too simple to apply directly to long-term prediction for populations undergoing the ratchet.     

Adaptive evolution of asexual populations under Muller's ratchet

We study the population genetics of adaptation in nonequilibrium haploid asexual populations. We find that the accumulation of deleterious mutations, due to the operation of Muller's ratchet, can considerably reduce the rate of fixation of advantageous alleles. Such reduction can be approximated reasonably well by a reduction in the effective population size. In the absence of Muller's ratchet, a beneficial mutation can only become fixed if it creates the best possible genotype; if Muller's ratchet operates, however, mutations initially arising in a nonoptimal genotype can also become fixed in the population, since the loss of the least-loaded class implies that an initially nonoptimal background can become optimal. We show that, while the rate at which adaptive mutations become fixed is reduced, the rate of fixation of deleterious mutations due to the ratchet is not changed by the presence of beneficial mutations as long as the rate of their occurrence is low and the deleterious effects of mutations (s(d)) are higher than the beneficial effects (s(a)). When s(a) > s(d), the advantage of a beneficial mutation can outweigh the deleterious effects of associated mutations. Under these conditions, a beneficial allele can drag to fixation deleterious mutations initially associated with it at a higher rate than in the absence of advantageous alleles. We propose analytical approximations for the rates of accumulation of deleterious and beneficial mutations. Furthermore, when allowing for the possible occurrence of interference between beneficial alleles, we find that the presence of deleterious mutations of either very weak or very strong effect can marginally increase the rate of accumulation of beneficial mutations over that observed in the absence of such deleterious mutations.     

Muller''s Ratchet under Epistatic Selection

In a finite asexual population mean fitness may decrease by a process known as Muller's ratchet, which proceeds if all individuals with the minimum number of deleterious alleles are randomly lost. If these alleles have independent effects on fitness, previous analysis suggested that the rate of this decrease either remains constant or, if accumulation of mutations leads to the decline of the population size, grows. Here I show that this conclusion is quite sensitive to the assumption of independence. If deleterious alleles have synergistic fitness effects, then, as the ratchet advances, the frequency of the best available genotype will necessarily increase, making its loss less and less probable. As a result, sufficiently strong synergistic epistasis can effectively halt the action of Muller's ratchet. Instead of being driven extinct, a finite asexual population could then survive practically indefinitely, although with lower mean fitness than without random drift.     

A stochastic model for a single click of Muller's ratchet

This work presents a new approach to Muller's ratchet, where Haigh's model is approximately mapped into a simpler model that describes the behaviour of a population after a click of the ratchet, i.e., after loss of what was the fittest class. This new model predicts the distribution of times to the next click of the ratchet and is equivalent to a Wright-Fisher model for a population of haploid asexual individuals with one locus and two alleles. Within this model, the fittest members of a population correspond to carriers of one allele, while all other individuals have suboptimal fitness and are represented as carriers of the other allele. In this way, all suboptimal fitness individuals are amalgamated into a single “mutant” class.The approach presented here has some limitations and the potential for improvement. However, it does lead to results for the rate of the ratchet that, over a wide range of parameters, are accurate within one order of magnitude of simulation results. This contrasts with existing approaches, which are designed for only one or other of the two different parameter regimes known for the ratchet and are more accurate only in the parameter regime they were designed for.Numerical results are presented for the mean time between clicks of the ratchet for (i) the Wright-Fisher model, (ii) a diffusion approximation of this model and (iii) individually based simulations of a full model. The diffusion approximation is validated over a wide range of parameters by its close agreement with the Wright-Fisher model.The present work predicts that: (a) the time between clicks of the ratchet is insensitive to the value of the selection coefficient when the genomic mutation rate is large compared with the selection coefficient against a deleterious mutation, (b) the time interval between clicks of the ratchet has, approximately, an exponential distribution (or its discrete analogue). It is thus possible to determine the variance in times between clicks, given the expected time between clicks. Evidence for both (a) and (b) is seen in simulations.     

The accumulation of mutations in asexual populations and the structure of genealogical trees in the presence of selection

We study the accumulation of unfavourable mutations in asexual populations by the process of Muller's ratchet, and the consequent inevitable decrease in fitness of the population. Simulations show that it is mutations with only moderate unfavourable effect that lead to the most rapid decrease in fitness. We measure the number of fixations as a function of time and show that the fixation rate must be equal to the ratchet rate once a steady state is reached. Large bursts of fixations are observed to occur simultaneously. We relate this to the structure of the genealogical tree. We derive equations relating the rate of the ratchet to the moments of the distribution of the number of mutations k per individual. These equations interpolate between the deterministic limit (an infinite population with selection present) and the neutral limit (a finite size population with no selection). Both these limits are exactly soluble. In the neutral case, the distribution of k is shown to be non-self-averaging, i.e. the fluctuations remain very large even for very large populations. We also consider the strong-selection limit in which only individuals in the fittest surviving class have offspring. This limit is again exactly soluble. We investigate the structure of the genealogical tree relating individuals in the same population, and consider the probability (T) that two individuals had their latest common ancestor T generations in the past. The function (T) is exactly calculable in the neutral limit and the strong-selection limit, and we obtain an empirical solution for intermediate selection strengths.     

Molecular basis of fitness loss and fitness recovery in vesicular stomatitis virus

Viral populations subjected to repeated genetic bottleneck accumulate deleterious mutations in a process known as Muller's ratchet. Asexual viruses, such as vesicular stomatitis virus (VSV) can recover from Muller's ratchet by replication with large effective population sizes. However, mutants with a history of bottleneck transmissions often show decreased adaptability when compared to non-bottlenecked populations. We have generated a collection of bottlenecked mutants and allowed them to recover by large population passages. We have characterized fitness changes and the complete genomes of these strains. Mutations accumulated during the operation of Muller's ratchet led to the identification of two potential mutational hot spots in the VSV genome. As in other viral systems, transitions were more common than transversions. Both back mutation and compensatory mutations contributed to recovery, although a significant level of fitness increase was observed in nine of the 13 bottlenecked strains with no obvious changes in the consensus sequence. Additional replication of three strains resulted in the fixation of single point mutations. Only two mutations previously found in non-bottlenecked, high-fitness populations that had been adapting to the same environment were identified in the recovered strains.     

The extinction time under mutational meltdown driven by high mutation rates

Mutational meltdown describes an eco‐evolutionary process in which the accumulation of deleterious mutations causes a fitness decline that eventually leads to the extinction of a population. Possible applications of this concept include medical treatment of RNA virus infections based on mutagenic drugs that increase the mutation rate of the pathogen. To determine the usefulness and expected success of such an antiviral treatment, estimates of the expected time to mutational meltdown are necessary. Here, we compute the extinction time of a population under high mutation rates, using both analytical approaches and stochastic simulations. Extinction is the result of three consecutive processes: (a) initial accumulation of deleterious mutations due to the increased mutation pressure; (b) consecutive loss of the fittest haplotype due to Muller''s ratchet; (c) rapid population decline toward extinction. We find accurate analytical results for the mean extinction time, which show that the deleterious mutation rate has the strongest effect on the extinction time. We confirm that intermediate‐sized deleterious selection coefficients minimize the extinction time. Finally, our simulations show that the variation in extinction time, given a set of parameters, is surprisingly small.     

Muller's ratchet and the degeneration of Y chromosomes: a simulation study

A typical pattern in sex chromosome evolution is that Y chromosomes are small and have lost many of their genes. One mechanism that might explain the degeneration of Y chromosomes is Muller's ratchet, the perpetual stochastic loss of linkage groups carrying the fewest number of deleterious mutations. This process has been investigated theoretically mainly for asexual, haploid populations. Here, I construct a model of a sexual population where deleterious mutations arise on both X and Y chromosomes. Simulation results of this model demonstrate that mutations on the X chromosome can considerably slow down the ratchet. On the other hand, a lower mutation rate in females than in males, background selection, and the emergence of dosage compensation are expected to accelerate the process.     

The temporal dynamics of processes underlying Y chromosome degeneration

Y chromosomes originate from ordinary autosomes and degenerate by accumulating deleterious mutations. This accumulation results from a lack of recombination on the Y and is driven by interference among deleterious mutations (Muller's ratchet and background selection) and the fixation of beneficial alleles (genetic hitchhiking). Here I show that the relative importance of these processes is expected to vary over the course of Y chromosome evolution due to changes in the number of active genes. The dominant mode of degeneration on a newly formed gene-rich Y chromosome is expected to be Muller's ratchet and/or background selection due to the large numbers of deleterious mutations arising in active genes. However, the relative importance of these modes of degeneration declines rapidly as active genes are lost. In contrast, the rate of degeneration due to hitchhiking is predicted to be highest on Y chromosomes containing an intermediate number of active genes. The temporal dynamics of these processes imply that a gradual restriction of recombination, as inferred in mammals, will increase the importance of genetic hitchhiking relative to Muller's ratchet and background selection.     

Muller's ratchet and the accumulation of favourable mutations

Under the influence of recurrent deleterious mutation and selection, asexual and sexual populations reach a deterministic equilibrium with individuals carrying 0,1,2,. . . harmful mutations. When a favourable mutation (aA) occurs in an asexual population it will usually occur in an individual who has one or more (k) deleterious mutations. Muller's ratchet then applies as A will thereafter never occur in an individual with less than k mutations. If the selective advantage of A is less than the selective disadvantage of k harmful mutations then A will not spread. If it is greater it may spread carrying k deleterious mutations to fixation. Sexual populations are not affected in this way. A will spread through the population experiencing genomes with 0,1,2,. . . deleterious mutations in accordance with the deterministic equilibrium.     

The effects of deleterious mutations on evolution at linked sites

The process of evolution at a given site in the genome can be influenced by the action of selection at other sites, especially when these are closely linked to it. Such selection reduces the effective population size experienced by the site in question (the Hill-Robertson effect), reducing the level of variability and the efficacy of selection. In particular, deleterious variants are continually being produced by mutation and then eliminated by selection at sites throughout the genome. The resulting reduction in variability at linked neutral or nearly neutral sites can be predicted from the theory of background selection, which assumes that deleterious mutations have such large effects that their behavior in the population is effectively deterministic. More weakly selected mutations can accumulate by Muller's ratchet after a shutdown of recombination, as in an evolving Y chromosome. Many functionally significant sites are probably so weakly selected that Hill-Robertson interference undermines the effective strength of selection upon them, when recombination is rare or absent. This leads to large departures from deterministic equilibrium and smaller effects on linked neutral sites than under background selection or Muller's ratchet. Evidence is discussed that is consistent with the action of these processes in shaping genome-wide patterns of variation and evolution.     

A resolution of the mutation load paradox in humans

Current information on the rate of mutation and the fraction of sites in the genome that are subject to selection suggests that each human has received, on average, at least two new harmful mutations from its parents. These mutations were subsequently removed by natural selection through reduced survival or fertility. It has been argued that the mutation load, the proportional reduction in population mean fitness relative to the fitness of an idealized mutation-free individual, allows a theoretical prediction of the proportion of individuals in the population that fail to reproduce as a consequence of these harmful mutations. Application of this theory to humans implies that at least 88% of individuals should fail to reproduce and that each female would need to have more than 16 offspring to maintain population size. This prediction is clearly at odds with the low reproductive excess of human populations. Here, we derive expressions for the fraction of individuals that fail to reproduce as a consequence of recurrent deleterious mutation () for a model in which selection occurs via differences in relative fitness, such as would occur through competition between individuals. We show that is much smaller than the value predicted by comparing fitness to that of a mutation-free genotype. Under the relative fitness model, we show that depends jointly on U and the selective effects of new deleterious mutations and that a species could tolerate 10's or even 100's of new deleterious mutations per genome each generation.