Sheltered from the storm? Population viability analysis of a rare endemic under periodic catastrophe regimes

Rare species are important targets for biodiversity conservation efforts because rarity often equates to small populations and increased endangerment. Rare species are prone to stochastic extinction events and may be particularly susceptible to catastrophes. Therefore, understanding how rare species respond to disturbances is critical for evaluating extinction risk and guiding conservation managers. Population viability analyses (PVAs) are essential for assessing rare species' status yet they seldom consider catastrophic events. Accordingly, we present a PVA of a rare tropical epiphyte, Lepanthes caritensis (Orchidaceae), under simulated disturbance regimes to evaluate its demographics and extinction risk. We aimed to test how demographic models incorporating catastrophes affect population viability estimates. Our goal was to better guide management of these orchids and other rare plants. Results revealed L. caritensis numbers have declined recently, but projected growth rates indicated that most subpopulations should increase in size if undisturbed. Still, projection models show that moderate catastrophes reduce growth rates, increase stochasticity in subpopulation sizes, and elevate extinction risk. Severe catastrophes had a more pronounced effect in simulations; growth rates fell below replacement level, there was greater variation in projected population sizes, and extinction risk was significantly higher. PVAs incorporating periodic catastrophes indicate that rare species may have greater extinction probabilities than standard models suggest. Thus, precautionary conservation measures should be taken in disturbance prone settings and we encourage careful monitoring after environmental catastrophes. Future rare plant PVAs should incorporate catastrophes and aim to determine if rescue and reintroduction efforts are necessary after disturbances to insure long-term population viability.     

Response of “criollo” maize to single and mixed species inocula of arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi

We tested the effect of two single species inocula and a mixed inoculum of the native population of arbuscular mycorrhizal (AM) fungi on the growth response of criollo maize (Zea mays L.). To determine the inocula that produced the highest response on maize growth, we conducted a greenhouse experiment at 3 levels of P fertilization (0, 40 and 80 kg ha^–1). Inoculation with Glomus mosseae (Nicolson and Gerdemann) Gerd. and Trappe (LMSS) produced the greatest shoot growth rates at the two lowest P fertilization levels. Inoculation with Acaulospora bireticulata Rothwell and Trappe (ABRT) and the native population (NP) resulted in similar shoot growth rates at all P levels. These rates were higher than the non-mycorrhizal control rate at the lowest P level but lower than the control at the highest P level. Also, ABRT and NP had significantly lower shoot growth rates than the inoculation treatment with G. mosseae at all P levels. The non-mycorrhizal control had the lowest growth rate at the lowest P level but its growth rate increased linearly with increased P fertilization. Inoculation with G. mosseae and A. bireticulata produced similar colonization rates which were lower than the native population colonization rate. There was no correlation between colonization and shoot growth rates.     

Past,present, future: tracking and simulating genetic differentiation over time in a closed metapopulation system

Genetic differentiation plays an essential role in the assessment of metapopulation systems of conservation concern. Migration rates affect the degree of genetic differentiation between subpopulations, with increasing genetic differentiation leading to increasing extinction risk. Analyses of genetic differentiation repeated over time together with projections into the future are therefore important to inform conservation. We investigated genetic differentiation in a closed metapopulation system of an obligate forest grouse, the Western capercaillie Tetrao urogallus, by comparing microsatellite population structure between a historic and a recent time period. We found an increase in genetic differentiation over a period of approximately 15 years. Making use of forward simulations accounting for population dynamics and genetics from both time periods, we explored future genetic differentiation by implementing scenarios of differing migration rates. Using migration rates derived from the recent dataset, simulations predicted further increase of genetic differentiation by 2050. We then examined effects of two realistic yet hypothetical migration scenarios on genetic differentiation. While isolation of a subpopulation led to overall increased genetic differentiation, the re-establishment of connectivity between two subpopulations maintained genetic differentiation at recent levels. Our results emphasize the importance of maintaining connectivity between subpopulations in order to prevent further genetic differentiation and loss of genetic variation. The simulation set-up we developed is highly adaptable and will aid researchers and conservationists alike in anticipating consequences of conservation strategies for metapopulation systems.

     

RISK OF EXTIRPATION OF STELLER SEA LIONS IN THE GULF OF ALASKA AND ALEUTIAN ISLANDS: A POPULATION VIABILITY ANALYSIS BASED ON ALTERNATIVE HYPOTHESES FOR WHY SEA LIONS DECLINED IN WESTERN ALASKA

We estimated the risk that the Steller sea lion will be extirpated in western Alaska using a population viability analysis (PVA) that combined simulations with statistically fitted models of historical population dynamics. Our analysis considered the roles that density‐dependent and density‐independent factors may have played in the past, and how they might influence future population dynamics. It also established functional relationships between population size, population growth rate and the risk of extinction under alternative hypotheses about population regulation and environmental variability. These functional relationships can be used to develop recovery criteria and guide research and management decisions. Life table parameters (e.g., birth and survival rates) operating during the population decline (1978–2002) were estimated by fitting simple age‐structured models to time‐series of pup and non‐pup counts from 33 rookeries (subpopulations). The PVA was carried out by projecting all 33 subpopulations into the future using these estimated site‐specific life tables (with associated uncertainties) and different assumptions about carrying capacities and the presence or absence of density‐dependent population regulation. Results suggest that the overall predicted risk of extirpation of Steller sea lions as a species in western Alaska was low in the next 100 yr under all scenarios explored. However, most subpopulations of Steller sea lions had high probabilities of going extinct within the next 100 yr if trends observed during the 1990s were to continue. Two clusters of contiguous subpopulations occurring in the Unimak Pass area in the western Gulf of Alaska/eastern Aleutian Islands and the Seguam–Adak region in the central Aleutian Islands had relatively lower risks of extinction. Risks of extinction for a number of subpopulations in the Gulf of Alaska were reduced if the increases observed since the late 1990s continue into the future. The risks of subpopulations going extinct were small when density‐dependent compensation in birth and survival rates was assumed, even when random stochasticity in these vital rates was introduced.     

Simulating viability of a spadefoot toad Pelobates fuscus metapopulation in a landscape fragmented by a road

A stochastic simulation model allowing for demographic and environmental stochasticity was developed in order to predict the dynamics of a Pelobates fuscus metapopulation. The metapopulation (consisting of ca 1000 adult individuals) was intensively studied in the field for a period of four years and the simulation model was parameterised (sex ratio, age‐specific survival rates, fecundity and dispersal between subpopulations) using field data. A sensitivity analysis revealed that a change in the juvenile yearly survival rate has a relatively larger effect on subpopulation persistence than adult survival rate and fecundity rate have. The probability of subpopulation persistence for one hundred years increased from 0 to 0.6 with a change in juvenile yearly survival rate from 0.35 to 0.40. Varying dispersal rate (from 0 to 1% of the individuals in a subpopulation moving to another subpopulation within a year) showed that four of the five subpopulations are dependent on the last one for persistence, indicating a source‐sink structure of the metapopulation. The subpopulation with the highest estimated juvenile survival has a far higher persistence probability than the others; they in turn would go extinct were it not for the occasional input of individuals from the source subpopulation. The source‐sink structure was also apparent when simulating the isolation effect of the road: persistence of the subpopulation isolated by the road decreases markedly with only a 20% decrease in the number of individuals dispersing to this pond. Environmental stochasticity decreases persistence time of the source subpopulation, but increases persistence time of the unstable ones. This is probably due to the presence of overcompensating density‐dependent factors affecting the subpopulations and to the more general effect of stochasticity: it may temporarily change reproduction and mortality rates, increase time to extinction for unstable subpopulations through a rescue effect; and decrease time to extinction for the more stable subpopulations.     

Diversity Assessment of an Endemic <i>Carpinus oblongifolia</i> (Betulaceae) Using Specific-Locus Amplified Fragment Sequencing and Implications for Conservation

Carpinus oblongifolia is an endemic species and the extant wild populations show a fragmentation distribution in the Baohua Mountain of Jiangsu Province in eastern China. Understanding of genetic diversity plays an important role in C. oblongifolia survival and sustainable development. The wild C. oblongifolia population was artificially divided into four subpopulations according to the microhabitats, and another two subpopulations were constructed by progeny seedlings cultivated with the mature seeds. Then, the leaf buds of 80 individuals from six subpopulations were sampled to develop single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) using specific-locus amplified fragment sequencing (SLAF-seq). Based on these SNPs, we aimed to characterize the genetic diversity and population structure of C. oblongifolia and provide an illumination and reference for effective management of such a small endemic population. The level of genetic diversity was low at the species level, and the progeny subpopulations had a relatively higher genetic diversity than the wild subpopulations. This may be attributed to a high gene flow and an excess heterozygosity to reduce the threat of genetic drift-based hazards. Moreover, the progeny subpopulations had the ability to form new clusters and a great contribution to the genetic structure variation of C. oblongifolia. These results will assist with the development of conservation and management strategies, such as properly evacuating competitive trees to provide more chance for pollen and seed flow in situ conservation, and establishing sufficient seedling plantlets under laboratory conditions for reintroduction to enlarge the effective population size.     

The relative importance of sexual and clonal reproduction for population growth in the perennial herb Fragaria vesca

The relative importance of sexual and clonal reproduction for population growth in clonal plants is highly variable. Clonal reproduction is often more important than sexual reproduction but there is considerable interspecific variation and the importance of the two reproductive modes can change with environmental conditions. We carried out a demographic study on the woodland strawberry (Fragaria vesca), a widespread clonal herb, at 12 sites in Switzerland during 2 years. Study sites were selected in two different habitats, i.e., forest and forest edge. We used periodic matrix models to estimate annual population growth rates and carried out prospective analyses to identify life cycle components that influence population growth rates most. Retrospective analyses were applied to study how the two different habitats affected population dynamics. Furthermore, we tested whether trade-offs between sexual and clonal reproduction occurred. There were large differences in annual population growth rates between sites and large within-site differences between years. Results of the prospective analyses clearly indicate that clonal reproduction is the dominant reproductive pathway whereas sexual reproduction is rather insignificant for population growth. Compared to forest habitats, forest edge habitats had higher population growth rates in the first year but smaller growth rates in the second year. We attribute these differing habitat effects to different water availabilities during consecutive years. No trade-offs between sexual and clonal reproduction were found. In conclusion, population growth of F. vesca relies heavily on clonal reproduction. Furthermore, reproduction and survival rates of F. vesca depend highly on spatio-temporal variation of environmental conditions.     

Breeding system,pollination and demography in the rare granite endemic shrub Verticordia staminosa ssp. staminosa in south‐west Western Australia

Abstract Verticordia staminosa C. Gardner & A. S. George staminosa (Myrtaceae) is a rare granite endemic shrub that grows in discrete subpopulations on one isolated rock outcrop in a remnant of native vegetation in the Western Australian wheat belt. Key considerations in assessing the risk of extinction for rare plant species in fragmented landscapes are the reproductive dependence on a pollinator, breeding system, importance of seeds in demography, and regeneration niche. The present study determined the extent to which these factors constrain population growth in V. staminosa ssp. staminosa. Measurements across nine subpopulations on the breeding system, pollinator activity, rates of flowering, pollination and seed production, seedling demography, mature plant mortality and size‐class structure were undertaken over three consecutive years. The study species has a mixed mating system with similar rates of pollen tube development and fertilization observed in self‐, cross‐ and open‐pollinated flowers. Floral morphology, orientation and the concentration and volume of nectar produced suggest some degree of specialization associated with pollination by birds, which were occasionally seen visiting flowers. However, feral honey bees were the most commonly observed flower visitor and they seem to have replaced honeyeaters as the primary pollinator. Honey‐bee abundance increased with subpopulation size. However, rates of pollination and the subsequent proportion of flowers that produced viable seeds were independent of subpopulation size. Germination and seedling emergence occurred each winter but were greatest in the wettest winter. Recruitment was heavily biased towards individuals growing in or over cracks/fissures in the rock. Over the 3‐year study, recruitment exceeded mortality. A relatively unspecialized flower and mixed mating system have buffered the taxon against the effects of pollinator disruption. Seed production does not constrain population growth. The environmental variables of climate and suitable establishment crevices appear to be the major constraints to population growth.     

EVIDENCE OF PARTIAL APOMIXIS IN ANTENNARIA MEDIA (ASTERACEAE: INULEAE) DETECTED BY THE SEGREGATION OF GENETIC MARKERS

The interplant variation in sexual and asexual reproduction in an Oregon population of the alpine perennial Antennaria media was investigated. Four polymorphic loci were assayed by enzyme electrophoresis of the progeny of 72 families from two subpopulations of A. media. The population was divided into two spatially distinct subpopulations. A multilocus model, incorporating a mixture of apomixis and random outcrossing, was used to estimate the mating system of pistillate plants both on the population and individual levels with statistical significance of the estimates based on bootstrap methods. The population contained a mixture of sexual individuals, partial apomicts, and obligate apomicts. The first subpopulation contained individuals that were partially apomictic and presumably produced both reduced and unreduced embryo sacs. There was a conspicuous difference in the breeding system composition between the two subpopulations. The first subpopulation had a “female” biased gender ratio and contained mostly obligate apomicts, some partial apomicts, and some outcrossing amphimicts. The second subpopulation, which had a nearly balanced gender ratio, contained mostly amphimicts, some obligate apomicts, but no facultative apomicts. This is the first study to document partial apomixis in individual plants by the use of genetic markers.     

Does harvest affect genetic diversity in grey wolves?

Harvest can affect vital rates such as reproduction and survival, but also genetic measures of individual and population health. Grey wolves (Canis lupus) live and breed in groups, and effective population size is a small fraction of total abundance. As a result, genetic diversity of wolves may be particularly sensitive to harvest. We evaluated how harvest affected genetic diversity and relatedness in wolves. We hypothesized that harvest would (a) reduce relatedness of individuals within groups in a subpopulation but increase relatedness of individuals between groups due to increased local immigration, (b) increase individual heterozygosity and average allelic richness across groups in subpopulations and (c) add new alleles to a subpopulation and decrease the number of private alleles in subpopulations due to an increase in breeding opportunities for unrelated individuals. We found harvest had no effect on observed heterozygosity of individuals or allelic richness at loci within subpopulations but was associated with a small, biologically insignificant effect on within‐group relatedness values in grey wolves. Harvest was, however, positively associated with increased relatedness of individuals between groups and a net gain (+16) of alleles into groups in subpopulations monitored since harvest began, although the number of private alleles in subpopulations overall declined. Harvest likely created opportunities for wolves to immigrate into nearby groups and breed, thereby making groups in subpopulations more related over time. Harvest appears to affect genetic diversity in wolves at the group and population levels, but its effects are less apparent at the individual level given the population sizes we studied.     

Population field studies on the aphidophagous ladybird beetle Harmonia axyridis (Coleoptera: Coccinellidae): resource tracking and population characteristics

To clarify functional and numerical responses to temporal and spatial variations of resources (resource tracking), and the population characteristics of the ladybird beetle Harmonia axyridis, I analyzed the results of a 3-year field observation at 24 sites (seven plant species) on eight species of aphids. The seasonal changes in the number of beetles estimated by the Jolly–Seber method were significantly correlated with those of aphids in the total area. The estimated values of population parameters suggested frequent immigration and emigration of the H. axyridis population, although reproductive rates between spring and summer were rather stable all 3 years (1.87–3.49). The staying time and the daily number of adults and eggs at each site were influenced not only by a single factor but also by interactions among time and quantity and quality of the prey. The adult movement showed two patterns, which corresponded with the movement within and between the subpopulations when an assemblage of H. axyridis occurring on the plants of the same species or genus was regarded as a subpopulation. Adult movement intensely occurred within a subpopulation, although the beetles moving between subpopulations had a significantly greater chance to reach the habitat with a high aphid density. The habitats of H. axyridis could be categorized into a suitable habitat for survival and reproduction and a temporal refuge. The results obtained here suggest that H. axyridis, with high ability of prey searching and reproduction, maintains a stable population in heterogeneous and temporal habitats by its resource tracking mechanisms. Received: March 8, 1999 / Accepted: April 25, 2000     

THE RELEVANCE OF GENE FLOW IN METAPOPULATION DYNAMICS OF AN OCEANIC ISLAND ENDEMIC,OLEA EUROPAEA SUBSP. GUANCHICA

Theoretical and empirical studies suggest that geographical isolation and extinction–recolonization dynamics are two factors causing strong genetic structure in metapopulations, but their consequences in species with high dispersal abilities have not been tested at large scales. Here, we investigated the effect of population age structure and isolation by distance in the patterns of genetic diversity in a wind‐pollinated, zoochorous tree (Olea europaea subsp. guanchica) sporadically affected by volcanic events across the Canarian archipelago. Genetic variation was assessed at six nuclear microsatellites (nDNA) and six chloroplast fragments (cpDNA) in nine subpopulations sampled on four oceanic islands. Subpopulations occurring on more recent substrates were more differentiated than those on older substrates, but within‐subpopulation genetic diversity was not significantly different between age groups for any type of marker. Isolation‐by‐distance differentiation was observed for nDNA but not for cpDNA, in agreement with other metapopulation studies. Contrary to the general trend for island systems, between‐island differentiation was extremely low, and lower than differentiation between subpopulations on the same island. The pollen‐to‐seed ratio was close to one, two orders of magnitude lower than the average estimated for other wind‐pollinated, animal‐dispersed plants. Our results showed that population turnover and geographical isolation increased genetic differentiation relative to an island model at equilibrium, but overall genetic structure was unexpectedly weak for a species distributed among islands. This empirical study shows that extensive gene flow, particularly mediated by seeds, can ameliorate population subdivision resulting from extinction–recolonization dynamics and isolation by distance.     

The applicability of metapopulation theory to large mammals

Metapopulation theory has become a common framework in conservation biology and it is sometimes suggested that a metapopulation approach should be used for management of large mammals. However, it has also been suggested that metapopulation theory would not be applicable to species with long generations compared to those with short ones. In this paper, we review how and on what empirical ground metapopulation terminology has been applied to insects, small mammals and large mammals. The review showed that the metapopulation term sometimes was used for population networks which only fulfilled the broadest possible definition of a metapopulation, i.e. they were subpopulations connected by migrating individuals. We argue that the metapopulation concept should be reserved for networks that also show some kind of metapopulation dynamics. Otherwise it applies to almost all populations and loses its substance. We found much empirical support for metapopulation dynamics in both insects and small mammals, but not in large mammals. A possible reason is the methods used to confirm the existence of metapopulation dynamics. For insects and small mammals, the common approach is to study population turnover through patch occupancy data. Such data is difficult to obtain for large mammals, since longer temporal scales need to be covered to record extinctions and colonizations. Still, many populations of large mammals are exposed to habitat fragmentation and the resulting subpopulations sometimes have high risks of extinction. If there is migration between the subpopulations, the metapopulation framework could provide valuable information on their population dynamics. We suggest that a metapopulation approach can be interesting for populations of large mammals, when there are discrete breeding subpopulations and when these subpopulations have different growth rates and demographic fates. Thus, a comparison of the subpopulations’ demographic fates, rather than subpopulation turnover, can be a feasible alternative for studies of metapopulation dynamics in large mammals.     

Effects of experimental population extinction for the spatial population dynamics of the butterfly Parnassius smintheus

While many studies have examined factors potentially impacting the rate of local population extinction, few experimental studies have examined the consequences of extinction for spatial population dynamics. Here we report results from a large‐scale, long‐term experiment examining the effects of local population extinction for the dynamics of surrounding populations. From 2001–2008 we removed all adult butterflies from two large, neighboring populations within a system of 17 subpopulations of the Rocky Mountain Apollo butterfly, Parnassius smintheus. Surrounding populations were monitored using individual, mark–recapture methods. We found that population removal decreased immigration to surrounding populations in proportion to their connectivity to the removed populations. Correspondingly, within‐generation population abundance declined. Despite these effects, we saw little consistent impact between generations. The extinction rates of surrounding populations were unaffected and local population growth was not consistently reduced by the lack of immigration. The broader results show that immigration affects local abundance within generations, but dynamics are mediated by density‐dependence within populations and by broader density‐independent factors acting between generations. The loss of immigrants resulting from extinction has little impact on the persistence of local populations in this system.     

Population Dynamics of the Andean Lizard Anolis heterodermus: Fast‐slow Demographic Strategies in Fragmented Scrubland Landscapes

Habitat fragmentation and loss affect population stability and demographic processes, increasing the extinction risk of species. We studied Anolis heterodermus populations inhabiting large and small Andean scrubland patches in three fragmented landscapes in the Sabana de Bogotá (Colombia) to determine the effect of habitat fragmentation and loss on population dynamics. We used the capture‐mark‐recapture method and multistate models to estimate vital rates for each population. We estimated growth population rate and the most important processes that affect λ by elasticity analysis of vital rates. We tested the effects of habitat fragmentation and loss on vital rates of lizard populations. All six isolated populations showed a positive or an equilibrium growth rate (λ = 1), and the most important demographic process affecting λ was the growth to first reproduction. Populations from landscapes with less scrubland natural cover showed higher stasis of young adults. Populations in highly fragmented landscapes showed highest juvenile survival and growth population rates. Independent of the landscape's habitat configuration and connectivity, populations from larger scrubland patches showed low adult survivorship, but high transition rates. Populations varied from a slow strategy with low growth and delayed maturation in smaller patches to a fast strategy with high growth and early maturation in large patches. This variation was congruent with the fast‐slow continuum hypothesis and has serious implications for Andean lizard conservation and management strategies. We suggest that more stable lizard populations will be maintained if different management strategies are adopted according to patch area and habitat structure.     

Mictic patterns of the rotifer Brachionus plicatilis Müller in small ponds

Populations of the rotifer Brachionus plicatilis were monitored in three small ponds in a marsh on the Mediterranean coast. Samples were taken approximately every three weeks from July 1992 to November 1993. Salinity, temperature, conductivity, pH and oxygen concentration were measured in the field. Population density was determined from preserved quantitative samples. Individuals were classified as mictic females, amictic females, non-ovigerous females, and males, differentiating between two morphotypes (S and L). From these counts, a level of mixis was calculated. We also determined the proportion of mictic females in natural populations by culturing females isolated from fresh samples. From these data, mictic patterns over time and correlation between levels of mixis and environmental and population parameters were analyzed. From a previous study S and L morphotypes were known to correspond to genetically different clonal groups. Our data showed that reproduction was predominantly parthenogenetic in these clonal groups, but mictic females were found in most samples, the proportion of mictic females ranging from 0 to 29%. The clonal groups showed different patterns of mixis. L clonal group presented a continuous sexual reproductive pattern. In contrast, S clones showed a rather punctuated mictic pattern. A positive correlation between levels of sexual reproduction and population density was found for S and L groups. However, they differed in their density threshold for mictic reproduction. The adaptive meaning of these patterns and their implications in maintaining genetic diversity within and between populations are discussed.     

Demography and matrix analysis on a natural Pterocarya rhoifolia population developed along a mountain stream

The population structures and dynamics of a dominant riparian canopy species, Pterocarya rhoifolia (Juglandaceae), were analyzed based on the census data collected for the 7 years from 1989 through 1996. A study plot was established over an environmental gradient that included the lower hill-slope, river terrace, and low-level floodplain of a riparian area within a 2.8-ha cool-temperate forest stand. Spatial analyses of the demographic data showed that there were significant differences in recruitment, growth, and death processes among the three habitats. The slope and terrace habitats were the severest for the pre-reproductive stage and recruitment process, respectively. A topographically combined projection matrix was constructed for the life-history processes of the three subpopulations, which clearly revealed that the floodplain and terrace subpopulations constituted the mainland source populations, whereas the slope subpopulation was an island sink population. The whole Pterocarya population linked by seed flow showed an increase in population size (λ=1.052). The elasticity analysis showed that the sum of the elasticity values was zero, 0.14, and 0.85 in the slope, terrace and floodplain subpopulations, respectively. This fact clearly indicates that the role of the floodplain subpopulation as a source population is six times as large as that of the terrace subpopulation. Electronic Publication     

Use of a genetic marker to examine genetic interaction among subpopulations of pink salmon (Oncorhynchus gorbuscha)

In 1979 and 1981, a genetic marker was bred into one of the five identifiable subpopulations of pink salmon [Oncorhynchus gorbuscha (Walbaum)] in the Auke Lake drainage in Southeast Alaska. As a result of the marking effort, the frequencies of two malate dehydrogenase (MDH-B1, 2^*) alleles were changed in the marked subpopulation, but not in other subpopulations that spawn at different times or places. Between 1983 and 1989, the marker allele frequencies were monitored in many of these subpopulations and in early- and late-run pink salmon spawning in nearby Waydelich Creek, located approximately 1km away. Changes in allele frequencies at MDH-B1, 2^*, used to obtain direct estimates of average migration rates (m) from the marked to the unmarked subpopulations, revealed little or no introgression into early subpopulations or into nearby Waydelich Creek. Moreover, spatially distinct late-run Auke Creek subpopulations were not immediately overrun by the more abundant marked subpopulation. These observations suggest that genetic isolation exists between temporally distinct spawning runs and that small temporal and spatial (or ecological) differences contribute to population structure. These observations should be considered in taking actions that affect conservation and harvest management or extensive culture of salmonids.     

Synchronous dynamics and rates of extinction in spatially structured populations

We explore extinction rates using a spatially arranged set of subpopulations obeying Ricker dynamics. The population system is subjected to dispersal of individuals among the subpopulations as well as to local and global disturbances. We observe a tight positive correlation between global extinction rate and the level of synchrony in dynamics among thesubpopulations. Global disturbances and to a lesser extent, migration, are capable of synchronizing the temporal dynamics of the subpopulations over a rather wide span of the population growth rate r. Local noise decreases synchrony, as does increasing distance among the subpopulations. Synchrony also levels off with increasing r: in the chaotic region, subpopulations almost invariably behave asynchronously. We conclude that it is asynchrony that reduces the probability of global extinctions, not chaos as such: chaos is a special case only. The relationship between global extinction rate, synchronous dynamics and population growth rate is robust to changes in dispersal rates and ranges.