Evaluation of ecosystem dynamics, plant geography and terrestrial carbon cycling in the LPJ dynamic global vegetation model

The Lund–Potsdam–Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model (LPJ) combines process‐based, large‐scale representations of terrestrial vegetation dynamics and land‐atmosphere carbon and water exchanges in a modular framework. Features include feedback through canopy conductance between photosynthesis and transpiration and interactive coupling between these ‘fast’ processes and other ecosystem processes including resource competition, tissue turnover, population dynamics, soil organic matter and litter dynamics and fire disturbance. Ten plants functional types (PFTs) are differentiated by physiological, morphological, phenological, bioclimatic and fire‐response attributes. Resource competition and differential responses to fire between PFTs influence their relative fractional cover from year to year. Photosynthesis, evapotranspiration and soil water dynamics are modelled on a daily time step, while vegetation structure and PFT population densities are updated annually. Simulations have been made over the industrial period both for specific sites where field measurements were available for model evaluation, and globally on a 0.5°° × 0.5°° grid. Modelled vegetation patterns are consistent with observations, including remotely sensed vegetation structure and phenology. Seasonal cycles of net ecosystem exchange and soil moisture compare well with local measurements. Global carbon exchange fields used as input to an atmospheric tracer transport model (TM2) provided a good fit to observed seasonal cycles of CO₂ concentration at all latitudes. Simulated inter‐annual variability of the global terrestrial carbon balance is in phase with and comparable in amplitude to observed variability in the growth rate of atmospheric CO₂. Global terrestrial carbon and water cycle parameters (pool sizes and fluxes) lie within their accepted ranges. The model is being used to study past, present and future terrestrial ecosystem dynamics, biochemical and biophysical interactions between ecosystems and the atmosphere, and as a component of coupled Earth system models.     

Potentially complex biosphere responses to transient global warming

Feedback interactions between terrestrial vegetation and climate could alter predictions of the responses of both systems to a doubling of atmospheric CO₂. Most previous analyses of biosphere responses to global warming have used output from equilibrium simulations of current and future climate, as compared to more recently available transient GCM simulations. We compared the vegetation responses to these two different classes of GCM simulation (equilibrium and transient) using an equilibrium vegetation distribution model, MAPSS. Average climatologies were extracted from the transient GCM simulations for current and doubled (2×) CO₂ concentrations (taken to be 2070–2099) for use by the equilibrium vegetation model. However, the 2 × CO₂ climates extracted from the transient GCM simulations were not in equilibrium, having attained only about 65% of their eventual 2 × CO₂ equilibrium temperature change. Most of the differences in global vegetation response appeared to be related to a very different simulated change in the pole to tropic temperature gradient. Also, the transient scenarios produced much larger increases of precipitation in temperate latitudes, commensurate with a minimum in the latitudinal temperature change. Thus, the (equilibrium) global vegetation response, under the transient scenarios, tends more to a greening than a decline in vegetation density, as often previously simulated. It may be that much of the world could become greener during the early phases of global warming, only to reverse in later, more equilibrial stages. However, whether or not the world's vegetation experiences large drought-induced declines or perhaps large vegetation expansions in early stages could be determined by the degree to which elevated CO₂ will actually benefit natural vegetation, an issue still under debate. There may occur oscillations, perhaps on long timescales, between greener and drier phases, due to different frequency responses of the coupled ocean–atmosphere–biosphere interactions. Such oscillations would likely, of themselves, impart further reverberations to the coupled Earth System.     

Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models

The possible responses of ecosystem processes to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate change are illustrated using six dynamic global vegetation models that explicitly represent the interactions of ecosystem carbon and water exchanges with vegetation dynamics. The models are driven by the IPCC IS92a scenario of rising CO₂ ( Wigley et al. 1991 ), and by climate changes resulting from effective CO₂ concentrations corresponding to IS92a, simulated by the coupled ocean atmosphere model HadCM2‐SUL. Simulations with changing CO₂ alone show a widely distributed terrestrial carbon sink of 1.4–3.8 Pg C y^?1 during the 1990s, rising to 3.7–8.6 Pg C y^?1 a century later. Simulations including climate change show a reduced sink both today (0.6–3.0 Pg C y^?1) and a century later (0.3–6.6 Pg C y^?1) as a result of the impacts of climate change on NEP of tropical and southern hemisphere ecosystems. In all models, the rate of increase of NEP begins to level off around 2030 as a consequence of the ‘diminishing return’ of physiological CO₂ effects at high CO₂ concentrations. Four out of the six models show a further, climate‐induced decline in NEP resulting from increased heterotrophic respiration and declining tropical NPP after 2050. Changes in vegetation structure influence the magnitude and spatial pattern of the carbon sink and, in combination with changing climate, also freshwater availability (runoff). It is shown that these changes, once set in motion, would continue to evolve for at least a century even if atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate could be instantaneously stabilized. The results should be considered illustrative in the sense that the choice of CO₂ concentration scenario was arbitrary and only one climate model scenario was used. However, the results serve to indicate a range of possible biospheric responses to CO₂ and climate change. They reveal major uncertainties about the response of NEP to climate change resulting, primarily, from differences in the way that modelled global NPP responds to a changing climate. The simulations illustrate, however, that the magnitude of possible biospheric influences on the carbon balance requires that this factor is taken into account for future scenarios of atmospheric CO₂ and climate change.     

Robust dynamics of Amazon dieback to climate change with perturbed ecosystem model parameters

Climate change science is increasingly concerned with methods for managing and integrating sources of uncertainty from emission storylines, climate model projections, and ecosystem model parameterizations. In tropical ecosystems, regional climate projections and modeled ecosystem responses vary greatly, leading to a significant source of uncertainty in global biogeochemical accounting and possible future climate feedbacks. Here, we combine an ensemble of IPCC‐AR4 climate change projections for the Amazon Basin (eight general circulation models) with alternative ecosystem parameter sets for the dynamic global vegetation model, LPJmL. We evaluate LPJmL simulations of carbon stocks and fluxes against flux tower and aboveground biomass datasets for individual sites and the entire basin. Variability in LPJmL model sensitivity to future climate change is primarily related to light and water limitations through biochemical and water‐balance‐related parameters. Temperature‐dependent parameters related to plant respiration and photosynthesis appear to be less important than vegetation dynamics (and their parameters) for determining the magnitude of ecosystem response to climate change. Variance partitioning approaches reveal that relationships between uncertainty from ecosystem dynamics and climate projections are dependent on geographic location and the targeted ecosystem process. Parameter uncertainty from the LPJmL model does not affect the trajectory of ecosystem response for a given climate change scenario and the primary source of uncertainty for Amazon ‘dieback’ results from the uncertainty among climate projections. Our approach for describing uncertainty is applicable for informing and prioritizing policy options related to mitigation and adaptation where long‐term investments are required.     

Land use change and the global carbon cycle: the role of tropical soils

Millions of hectares of tropical forest are cleared annually for agriculture, pasture, shifting cultivation and timber. One result of these changes in land use is the release of CO₂ from the cleared vegetation and soils. Although there is uncertainty as to the size of this release, it appears to be a major source of atmospheric CO₂, second only to the release from the combustion of fossil fuels. This study estimates the release of CO₂ from tropical soils using a computer model that simulates land use change in the tropics and data on (1) the carbon content of forest soils before clearing; (2) the changes in the carbon content under the various types of land use; and (3) the area of forest converted to each use. It appears that the clearing and use of tropical soils affects their carbon content to a depth of about 40 cm. Soils of tropical closed forests contain approximately 6.7 kg C · m^-2; soils of tropical open forests contain approximately 5.2 kg C · m^-2 to this depth. The cultivation of tropical soils reduces their carbon content by 40% 5 yr after clearing; the use of these soils for pasture reduces it by about 20%. Logging in tropical forests appears to have little effect on soil carbon. The carbon content of soils used by shifting cultivators returns to the level found under primary forest about 35 yr after abandonment. The estimated net release of carbon from tropical soils due to land use change was 0.11–0.26 × 10¹⁵ g in 1980.     

Sensitivity of a dynamic global vegetation model to climate and atmospheric CO2

The equilibrium carbon storage capacity of the terrestrial biosphere has been investigated by running the Lund–Potsdam–Jena Dynamic Global Vegetation Model to equilibrium for a range of CO₂ concentrations and idealized climate states. Local climate is defined by the combination of an observation-based climatology and perturbation patterns derived from a 4 × CO₂ warming simulations, which are linearly scaled to global mean temperature deviations, Δ T _glob. Global carbon storage remains close to its optimum for Δ T _glob in the range of ±3°C in simulations with constant atmospheric CO₂. The magnitude of the carbon loss to the atmosphere per unit change in global average surface temperature shows a pronounced nonlinear threshold behavior. About twice as much carbon is lost per degree warming for Δ T _glob above 3°C than for present climate. Tropical, temperate, and boreal trees spread poleward with global warming. Vegetation dynamics govern the distribution of soil carbon storage and turnover in the climate space. For cold climate conditions, the global average decomposition rate of litter and soil decreases with warming, despite local increases in turnover rates. This result is not compatible with the assumption, commonly made in global box models, that soil turnover increases exponentially with global average surface temperature, over a wide temperature range.     

Temporal dynamics of soil organic carbon after land‐use change in the temperate zone – carbon response functions as a model approach

Land‐use change (LUC) is a major driving factor for the balance of soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks and the global carbon cycle. The temporal dynamic of SOC after LUC is especially important in temperate systems with a long reaction time. On the basis of 95 compiled studies covering 322 sites in the temperate zone, carbon response functions (CRFs) were derived to model the temporal dynamic of SOC after five different LUC types (mean soil depth of 30±6 cm). Grassland establishment caused a long lasting carbon sink with a relative stock change of 128±23% and afforestation on former cropland a sink of 116±54%, 100 years after LUC (mean±95% confidence interval). No new equilibrium was reached within 120 years. In contrast, there was no SOC sink following afforestation of grasslands and 75% of all observations showed SOC losses, even after 100 years. Only in the forest floor, there was carbon accumulation of 0.38±0.04 Mg ha^?1 yr^?1 in afforestations adding up to 38±4 Mg ha^?1 labile carbon after 100 years. Carbon loss after deforestation (?32±20%) and grassland conversion to cropland (?36±5%), was rapid with a new SOC equilibrium being reached after 23 and 17 years, respectively. The change rate of SOC increased with temperature and precipitation but decreased with soil depth and clay content. Subsoil SOC changes followed the trend of the topsoil SOC changes but were smaller (25±5% of the total SOC changes) and with a high uncertainty due to a limited number of datasets. As a simple and robust model approach, the developed CRFs provide an easily applicable tool to estimate SOC stock changes after LUC to improve greenhouse gas reporting in the framework of UNFCCC.     

附生植物对全球变化的响应及其生物指示作用

附生植物是一类生活在其他植物体上但不从宿主载体吸收营养和水分的特殊植物,其特有的形态结构和生态习性导致了它们对周围环境变化具有高度的敏感性和脆弱性.研究附生植物对全球变化的响应及其生物指示作用,具有重要的指导意义和应用价值.本文概述了附生植物对大气组成变化、气候变化和土地利用/覆盖方式转变等全球变化事件的响应及其生物指...     

Water-mediated responses of ecosystem carbon fluxes to climatic change in a temperate steppe

Global warming and a changing precipitation regime could have a profound impact on ecosystem carbon fluxes, especially in arid and semiarid grasslands where water is limited. A field experiment manipulating temperature and precipitation has been conducted in a temperate steppe in northern China since 2005. A paired, nested experimental design was used, with increased precipitation as the primary factor and warming simulated by infrared radiators as the secondary factor. The results for the first 2 yr showed that gross ecosystem productivity (GEP) was higher than ecosystem respiration, leading to net C sink (measured by net ecosystem CO(2) exchange, NEE) over the growing season in the study site. The interannual variation of NEE resulted from the difference in mean annual precipitation. Experimental warming reduced GEP and NEE, whereas increased precipitation stimulated ecosystem C and water fluxes in both years. Increased precipitation also alleviated the negative effect of experimental warming on NEE. The results demonstrate that water availability plays a dominant role in regulating ecosystem C and water fluxes and their responses to climatic change in the temperate steppe of northern China.     

A method of determining rooting depth from a terrestrial biosphere model and its impacts on the global water and carbon cycle

We outline a method of inferring rooting depth from a Terrestrial Biosphere Model by maximizing the benefit of the vegetation within the model. This corresponds to the evolutionary principle that vegetation has adapted to make best use of its local environment. We demonstrate this method with a simple coupled biosphere/soil hydrology model and find that deep rooted vegetation is predicted in most parts of the tropics. Even with a simple model like the one we use, it is possible to reproduce biome averages of observations fairly well. By using the optimized rooting depths global Annual Net Primary Production (and transpiration) increases substantially compared to a standard rooting depth of one meter, especially in tropical regions that have a dry season. The decreased river discharge due to the enhanced evaporation complies better with observations. We also found that the optimization process is primarily driven by the water deficit/surplus during the dry/wet season for humid and arid regions, respectively. Climate variability further enhances rooting depth estimates. In a sensitivity analysis where we simulate changes in the water use efficiency of the vegetation we find that vegetation with an optimized rooting depth is less vulnerable to variations in the forcing. We see the main application of this method in the modelling communities of land surface schemes of General Circulation Models and of global Terrestrial Biosphere Models. We conclude that in these models, the increased soil water storage is likely to have a significant impact on the simulated climate and the carbon budget, respectively. Also, effects of land use change like tropical deforestation are likely to be larger than previously thought.     

Soil‐nutrient availability under a global‐change scenario in a Mediterranean mountain ecosystem

Changes in rainfall availability will alter soil‐nutrient availability under a climate‐change scenario. However, studies have usually analyzed the effect of either drier or wetter soil conditions, despite the fact that both possibilities will coexist in many climatic regions of the world. Furthermore, its effect may vary across the different habitats of the ecosystem. We experimentally investigated the effect of three contrasting climatic scenarios on different carbon (C), nitrogen (N), and phosphorus (P) fractions in soil and microbial compartments among three characteristic habitats in a Mediterranean‐type ecosystem: forest, shrubland, and open areas. The climatic scenarios were dry summers, according to the 30% summer rainfall reduction projected in the Mediterranean; wet summer, simulating summer storms to reach the maximum historical records in the study area; and current climatic conditions (control). Sampling was replicated during two seasons (spring and summer) and 2 years. The climatic scenario did not affect the nutrient content in the litter layer. However, soil and microbial nutrients varied among seasons, habitats, and climatic scenarios. Soil‐nutrient fractions increased with lower soil‐moisture conditions (dry scenario and summer), whereas microbial nutrients increased under the wet summer scenario and spring. This pattern was consistent both studied years, although it was modulated by habitat, differences being lower with denser plant cover. Holm oak seedlings, used as live control of the experiment, tended to increase their N and P content (although not significantly) with water availability. Thus, the results support the idea that higher rainfall boosts microbial and plant‐nutrient uptake, and hence nutrient cycling. By contrast, a rainfall reduction leads to an accumulation of nutrients in the soil, increasing the risk of nutrient loss by leaching or erosion. These results show that the projected climate change will have significant effects on nutrient cycles, and therefore will have important implications on the ecosystem functioning.     

Effects of land use change and management on the European cropland carbon balance

We model the carbon balance of European croplands between 1901 and 2000 in response to land use and management changes. The process‐based ORCHIDEE‐STICS model is applied here in a spatially explicit framework. We reconstructed land cover changes, together with an idealized history of agro‐technology. These management parameters include the treatment of straw and stubble residues, application of mineral fertilizers, improvement of cultivar species and tillage. The model is integrated for wheat and maize during the period 1901–2000 forced by climate each 1/2‐hour, and by atmospheric CO₂, land cover change and agro‐technology each year. Several tests are performed to identify the most sensitive agro‐technological parameters that control the net biome productivity (NBP) in the 1990s, with NBP equaling for croplands the soil C balance. The current NBP is a small sink of 0.16 t C ha^?1 yr^?1. The value of NBP per unit area reflects past and current management, and to a minor extent the shrinking areas of arable land consecutive to abandonment during the 20th Century. The uncertainty associated with NBP is large, with a 1‐sigma error of 0.18 t C ha^?1 yr^?1 obtained from a qualitative, but comprehensive budget of various error terms. The NBP uncertainty is dominated by unknown historical agro‐technology changes (47%) and model structure (27%), with error in climate forcing playing a minor role. A major improvement to the framework would consist in using a larger number of representative crops. The uncertainty of historical land‐use change derived from three different reconstructions, has a surprisingly small effect on NBP (0.01 t C ha^?1 yr^?1) because cropland area remained stable during the past 20 years in all the tested land use forcing datasets. Regional cross‐validation of modeled NBP against soil C inventory measurements shows that our results are consistent with observations, within the uncertainties of both inventories and model. Our estimation of cropland NBP is however likely to be biased towards a sink, given that inventory data from different regions consistently indicate a small source whereas we model a small sink.     

Evidence of increased net ecosystem productivity associated with a longer vegetated season in a deciduous forest in south‐central Indiana,USA

Observations of net ecosystem exchange (NEE) of carbon and its biophysical drivers have been collected at the AmeriFlux site in the Morgan‐Monroe State Forest (MMSF) in Indiana, USA since 1998. Thus, this is one of the few deciduous forest sites in the world, where a decadal analysis on net ecosystem productivity (NEP) trends is possible. Despite the large interannual variability in NEP, the observations show a significant increase in forest productivity over the past 10 years (by an annual increment of about 10 g C m^?2 yr^?1). There is evidence that this trend can be explained by longer vegetative seasons, caused by extension of the vegetative activity in the fall. Both phenological and flux observations indicate that the vegetative season extended later in the fall with an increase in length of about 3 days yr^?1 for the past 10 years. However, these changes are responsible for only 50% of the total annual gain in forest productivity in the past decade. A negative trend in air and soil temperature during the winter months may explain an equivalent increase in NEP through a decrease in ecosystem respiration.     

Long-term ecosystem level experiments at Toolik Lake, Alaska, and at Abisko, Northern Sweden: generalizations and differences in ecosystem and plant type responses to global change

Long‐term ecosystem‐level experiments, in which the environment is manipulated in a controlled manner, are important tools to predict the responses of ecosystem functioning and composition to future global change. We present the results of a meta‐analysis performed on the results of long‐term ecosystem‐level experiments near Toolik Lake, Alaska, and Abisko, Sweden. We quantified aboveground biomass responses of different arctic and subarctic ecosystems to experimental fertilization, warming and shading. We not only analysed the general patterns but also the differences in responsiveness between sites and regions. Aboveground plant biomass showed a broad similarity of responses in both locations, and also showed some important differences. In both locations, aboveground plant biomass, particularly the biomass of deciduous and graminoid plants, responded most strongly to nutrient addition. The biomass of mosses and lichens decreased in both locations as the biomass of vascular plants increased. An important difference between the two regions was the smaller positive aboveground biomass response of deciduous shrubs in Abisko as compared with Toolik Lake. Whereas in Toolik Lake Betula nana increased its dominance and replaced many of the other plant types, in Abisko all vascular plant types increased in abundance without major shifts in relative abundance. The differences between the responses of the dominant vegetation types of the Toolik Lake region, i.e. tussock tundra systems, and that of the Abisko region, i.e. heath systems, may have important implications for ecosystem development under expected patterns of global change. However, there were also large site‐specific differences within each region. Several potential mechanistic explanations for the differences between sites and regions are discussed. The response patterns show the need for analyses of joint data sets from many regions and sites, in order to uncover common responses to changes in climate across large arctic regions from regional or local responses.     

Land use change and carbon cycle in arid and semi-arid lands of East and Central Asia

Dramatic changes in land use have occurred in arid and semi-arid landsof Asia during the 20th century. Grassland conversion into croplands and ecosystem degradation is widespread due to the high growth rate of human population and political reforms of pastoral systems. Rangeland degradation made many parts of this region vulnerable to environmental and political changes. The collapse of the livestock sector in some states of central Asia, expansion of livestock inChina and intensive degradation of grasslands in China are examples of the responses of pastoral systems to these changes over the past decades. Carbon dynamics in this region is highly variable in space and time. Land use/cover changes with widespread reduction of forest and grasslands increased carbon emission from the region.     

Adapting a patch model to simulate the sensitivity of Central-Canadian boreal ecosystems to climate variability

Aim To investigate effects of within-season and interannual climate variability on the behaviour of boreal forest ecosystems as simulated by the FORSKA2 patch model. Location Eleven climate station locations distributed along a transect across the boreal zone of central Canada. Methods FORSKA2′s water balance submodel was modified to enable it to behave more realistically under a varying climate. Long-term actual monthly time-series of temperature and precipitation data were detrended and used to drive the modified model. Long-term monthly averages of the same detrended data were used to drive the unmodified model. Results Modifications created significant improvements when simulating species composition at sites in boreal Canada. Simulated forest biomass values were slightly higher than those obtained from the unmodified model using averaged climate records, but resembled the observed distribution of vegetation more closely. Main conclusions Modified FORSKA2 suggests that boreal forest composition and distribution may be more sensitive to changes in monthly rainfall data than to changes in temperature. Climate variability affects seasonal water balances and should be considered when using patch models to forecast vegetation dynamics during and following a period of climate transition. The modified model provided improved representation of the latitudinal trend in spatially averaged biomass density in this region.