Carbon balance in the tundra, boreal forest and humid tropical forest during climate change: scaling up from leaf physiology and soil carbon dynamics

Carbon exchange by the terrestrial biosphere is thought to have changed since pre-industrial times in response to increasing concentrations of atmospheric CO₂ and variations (anomalies) in inter-annual air temperatures. However, the magnitude of this response, particularly that of various ecosystem types (biomes), is uncertain. Terrestrial carbon models can be used to estimate the direction and size of the terrestrial responses expected, providing that these models have a reasonable theoretical base. We formulated a general model of ecosystem carbon fluxes by linking a process-based canopy photosynthesis model to the Rothamsted soil carbon model for biomes that are not significantly affected by water limitation. The difference between net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic soil respiration (R_h) represents net ecosystem production (NEP). The model includes (i) multiple compartments for carbon storage in vegetation and soil organic matter, (ii) the effects of seasonal changes in environmental parameters on annual NEP, and (iii) the effects of inter-annual temperature variations on annual NEP. Past, present and projected changes in atmospheric CO₂ concentration and surface air temperature (at different latitudes) were analysed for their effects on annual NEP in tundra, boreal forest and humid tropical forest biomes. In all three biomes, annual NEP was predicted to increase with CO₂ concentration but to decrease with warming. As CO₂ concentrations and temperatures rise, the positive carbon gains through increased NPP are often outweighed by losses through increased R_h, particularly at high latitudes where global warming has been (and is expected to be) most severe. We calculated that, several times during the past 140 years, both the tundra and boreal forest biomes have switched between being carbon sources (annual NEP negative) and being carbon sinks (annual NEP positive). Most recently, significant warming at high latitudes during 1988 and 1990 caused the tundra and boreal forests to be net carbon sources. Humid tropical forests generally have been a carbon sink since 1960. These modelled responses of the various biomes are in agreement with other estimates from either field measurements or geochemical models. Under projected CO₂ and temperature increases, the tundra and boreal forests will emit increasingly more carbon to the atmosphere while the humid tropical forest will continue to store carbon. Our analyses also indicate that the relative increase in the seasonal amplitude of the accumulated NEP within a year is about 0–14% year^?1 for boreal forests and 0–23% year^?1 in the tundra between 1960 and 1990.     

Global response of terrestrial ecosystem structure and function to CO2 and climate change: results from six dynamic global vegetation models

The possible responses of ecosystem processes to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate change are illustrated using six dynamic global vegetation models that explicitly represent the interactions of ecosystem carbon and water exchanges with vegetation dynamics. The models are driven by the IPCC IS92a scenario of rising CO₂ ( Wigley et al. 1991 ), and by climate changes resulting from effective CO₂ concentrations corresponding to IS92a, simulated by the coupled ocean atmosphere model HadCM2‐SUL. Simulations with changing CO₂ alone show a widely distributed terrestrial carbon sink of 1.4–3.8 Pg C y^?1 during the 1990s, rising to 3.7–8.6 Pg C y^?1 a century later. Simulations including climate change show a reduced sink both today (0.6–3.0 Pg C y^?1) and a century later (0.3–6.6 Pg C y^?1) as a result of the impacts of climate change on NEP of tropical and southern hemisphere ecosystems. In all models, the rate of increase of NEP begins to level off around 2030 as a consequence of the ‘diminishing return’ of physiological CO₂ effects at high CO₂ concentrations. Four out of the six models show a further, climate‐induced decline in NEP resulting from increased heterotrophic respiration and declining tropical NPP after 2050. Changes in vegetation structure influence the magnitude and spatial pattern of the carbon sink and, in combination with changing climate, also freshwater availability (runoff). It is shown that these changes, once set in motion, would continue to evolve for at least a century even if atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate could be instantaneously stabilized. The results should be considered illustrative in the sense that the choice of CO₂ concentration scenario was arbitrary and only one climate model scenario was used. However, the results serve to indicate a range of possible biospheric responses to CO₂ and climate change. They reveal major uncertainties about the response of NEP to climate change resulting, primarily, from differences in the way that modelled global NPP responds to a changing climate. The simulations illustrate, however, that the magnitude of possible biospheric influences on the carbon balance requires that this factor is taken into account for future scenarios of atmospheric CO₂ and climate change.     

百年尺度地球系统模式模拟的陆地生态系统碳通量对CO2浓度升高和气候变化的响应

利用了加拿大地球系统模式CanE SM2(Canadian Earth System Model of the CCCma)的结果,针对百年尺度大气CO_2浓度升高和气候变化如何影响陆地生态系统碳通量这一问题,分析了1850—1989年间陆地生态系统碳通量趋势对二者响应,以及与关键气候系统变量的关系。结果表明,140年间,当仅仅考虑CO_2浓度升高影响时,陆地生态系统净初级生产力(NPP)增加了117.1 gC m~(-2)a~(-1),土壤呼吸(Rh)增加了98.4 gC m~(-2)a~(-1),净生态系统生产力(NEP)平均增加了18.7 gC m~(-2)a~(-1)。相同情景下,全球陆地生态系统的NPP呈显著增加的线性趋势(约为0.30 PgC/a~2),Rh同样呈显著增加线性趋势(约为0.25 PgC/a~2)。仅仅考虑气候变化单独影响时,NPP平均减少了19.3 gC/m~2,土壤呼吸减少了8.5 gC/m~2,NEP减少了10.8 gC/m~2。在此情景下,整个陆地生态系统的NPP线性变化趋势约为-0.07 PgC/a~2(P0.05),Rh线性变化趋势约为-0.04 PgC/a~2(P0.05)。综合二者的影响,前者是决定陆地生态系统碳通量变化幅度和空间分布的最重要影响因子,其影响明显大于气候变化。值得注意的是,CanE SM2并没有考虑氮素的限制作用,所以CO_2浓度升高对植被的助长作用可能被高估。此外,气候变化的贡献也不容忽视,特别是在亚马逊流域,由于当温度升高、降水和土壤湿度减少,NPP和Rh均呈显著减少趋势。     

Complex Spatiotemporal Responses of Global Terrestrial Primary Production to Climate Change and Increasing Atmospheric CO2 in the 21st Century

Quantitative information on the response of global terrestrial net primary production (NPP) to climate change and increasing atmospheric CO₂ is essential for climate change adaptation and mitigation in the 21^st century. Using a process-based ecosystem model (the Dynamic Land Ecosystem Model, DLEM), we quantified the magnitude and spatiotemporal variations of contemporary (2000s) global NPP, and projected its potential responses to climate and CO₂ changes in the 21^st century under the Special Report on Emission Scenarios (SRES) A2 and B1 of Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We estimated a global terrestrial NPP of 54.6 (52.8–56.4) PgC yr⁻¹ as a result of multiple factors during 2000–2009. Climate change would either reduce global NPP (4.6%) under the A2 scenario or slightly enhance NPP (2.2%) under the B1 scenario during 2010–2099. In response to climate change, global NPP would first increase until surface air temperature increases by 1.5°C (until the 2030s) and then level-off or decline after it increases by more than 1.5°C (after the 2030s). This result supports the Copenhagen Accord Acknowledgement, which states that staying below 2°C may not be sufficient and the need to potentially aim for staying below 1.5°C. The CO₂ fertilization effect would result in a 12%–13.9% increase in global NPP during the 21^st century. The relative CO₂ fertilization effect, i.e. change in NPP on per CO₂ (ppm) bases, is projected to first increase quickly then level off in the 2070s and even decline by the end of the 2080s, possibly due to CO₂ saturation and nutrient limitation. Terrestrial NPP responses to climate change and elevated atmospheric CO₂ largely varied among biomes, with the largest increases in the tundra and boreal needleleaf deciduous forest. Compared to the low emission scenario (B1), the high emission scenario (A2) would lead to larger spatiotemporal variations in NPP, and more dramatic and counteracting impacts from climate and increasing atmospheric CO₂.     

The high-latitude terrestrial carbon sink: a model analysis

A dynamic, global vegetation model, hybrid v4.1 ( Friend et al. 1997 ), was driven by transient climate output from the UK Hadley Centre GCM (HadCM2) with the IS92a scenario of increasing atmospheric CO₂ equivalent, sulphate aerosols and predicted patterns of atmospheric N deposition. Changes in areas of vegetation types and carbon storage in biomass and soils were predicted for areas north of 50°N from 1860 to 2100. Hybrid is a combined biogeochemical, biophysical and biogeographical model of natural, potential ecosystems. The effect of periodic boreal forest fires was assessed by adding a simple stochastic fire model. Hybrid represents plant physiological and soil processes regulating the carbon, water and N cycles and competition between individuals of parameterized generalized plant types. The latter were combined to represent tundra, temperate grassland, temperate/mixed forest and coniferous forest. The model simulated the current areas and estimated carbon stocks in the four vegetation types. It was predicted that land areas above 50°N (about 23% of the vegetated global land area) are currently accumulating about 0.4 PgC y^?1 (about 30% of the estimated global terrestrial sink) and that this sink could grow to 0.8–1.0 PgC y^?1 by the second half of the next century and persist undiminished until 2100. This sink was due mainly to an increase in forest productivity and biomass in response to increasing atmospheric CO₂, temperature and N deposition, and includes an estimate of the effect of boreal forest fire, which was estimated to diminish the sink approximately by the amount of carbon emitted to the atmosphere during fires. Averaged over the region, N deposition contributed about 18% to the sink by the 2080 s. As expected, climate change (temperature, precipitation, solar radiation and saturation pressure deficit) and N deposition without increasing atmospheric CO₂ produced a carbon source. Forest areas expanded both south and north, halving the current tundra area by 2100. This expansion contributed about 30% to the sink by the 2090 s. Tundra areas which were not invaded by forest fluctuated from sink to source. It was concluded that a high latitude carbon sink exists at present and, even assuming little effect of N deposition, no forest expansion and continued boreal forest fires, the sink is likely to persist at its current level for a century.     

Net primary and ecosystem production and carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems and their responses to climate change

Evaluating the role of terrestrial ecosystems in the global carbon cycle requires a detailed understanding of carbon exchange between vegetation, soil, and the atmosphere. Global climatic change may modify the net carbon balance of terrestrial ecosystems, causing feedbacks on atmospheric CO₂ and climate. We describe a model for investigating terrestrial carbon exchange and its response to climatic variation based on the processes of plant photosynthesis, carbon allocation, litter production, and soil organic carbon decomposition. The model is used to produce geographical patterns of net primary production (NPP), carbon stocks in vegetation and soils, and the seasonal variations in net ecosystem production (NEP) under both contemporary and future climates. For contemporary climate, the estimated global NPP is 57.0 Gt C y^–1, carbon stocks in vegetation and soils are 640 Gt C and 1358 Gt C, respectively, and NEP varies from –0.5 Gt C in October to 1.6 Gt C in July. For a doubled atmospheric CO₂ concentration and the corresponding climate, we predict that global NPP will rise to 69.6 Gt C y^–1, carbon stocks in vegetation and soils will increase by, respectively, 133 Gt C and 160 Gt C, and the seasonal amplitude of NEP will increase by 76%. A doubling of atmospheric CO₂ without climate change may enhance NPP by 25% and result in a substantial increase in carbon stocks in vegetation and soils. Climate change without CO₂ elevation will reduce the global NPP and soil carbon stocks, but leads to an increase in vegetation carbon because of a forest extension and NPP enhancement in the north. By combining the effects of CO₂ doubling, climate change, and the consequent redistribution of vegetation, we predict a strong enhancement in NPP and carbon stocks of terrestrial ecosystems. This study simulates the possible variation in the carbon exchange at equilibrium state. We anticipate to investigate the dynamic responses in the carbon exchange to atmospheric CO₂ elevation and climate change in the past and future.     

中国西北干旱区植被碳汇估算及其时空格局

通过修正的CASA模型估算2001—2012年间西北干旱区陆地生态系统的净第一性生产力(NPP),并结合土壤微生物呼吸方程,计算出12a的净生态系统生产力(NEP),分析了植被碳汇的时空变化规律。结果表明:研究区的NPP表现出很强的随季节变化的规律,全年7月份NPP为最高值,12月为最低值,12年间NPP的年均值变化不大。2001—2012年研究区的植被碳汇在波动变化中有所增加,其中2006年的碳汇平均值最小,为609.04 g C m~(-2)a~(-1),2012年最大,为648.02 g C m~(-2)a~(-1);年内碳汇的最大值主要出现在5—7月;碳汇能力由大到小的植被类型为针叶林农田灌丛阔叶林草原荒漠草原。研究区多年平均碳汇量呈现自西向东逐渐增加的规律,西辽河流域草原区的NPP和碳汇平均值最大,塔里木盆地暖温带荒漠区最小。     

CO2 balance of boreal, temperate, and tropical forests derived from a global database

Terrestrial ecosystems sequester 2.1 Pg of atmospheric carbon annually. A large amount of the terrestrial sink is realized by forests. However, considerable uncertainties remain regarding the fate of this carbon over both short and long timescales. Relevant data to address these uncertainties are being collected at many sites around the world, but syntheses of these data are still sparse. To facilitate future synthesis activities, we have assembled a comprehensive global database for forest ecosystems, which includes carbon budget variables (fluxes and stocks), ecosystem traits (e.g. leaf area index, age), as well as ancillary site information such as management regime, climate, and soil characteristics. This publicly available database can be used to quantify global, regional or biome‐specific carbon budgets; to re‐examine established relationships; to test emerging hypotheses about ecosystem functioning [e.g. a constant net ecosystem production (NEP) to gross primary production (GPP) ratio]; and as benchmarks for model evaluations. In this paper, we present the first analysis of this database. We discuss the climatic influences on GPP, net primary production (NPP) and NEP and present the CO₂ balances for boreal, temperate, and tropical forest biomes based on micrometeorological, ecophysiological, and biometric flux and inventory estimates. Globally, GPP of forests benefited from higher temperatures and precipitation whereas NPP saturated above either a threshold of 1500 mm precipitation or a mean annual temperature of 10 °C. The global pattern in NEP was insensitive to climate and is hypothesized to be mainly determined by nonclimatic conditions such as successional stage, management, site history, and site disturbance. In all biomes, closing the CO₂ balance required the introduction of substantial biome‐specific closure terms. Nonclosure was taken as an indication that respiratory processes, advection, and non‐CO₂ carbon fluxes are not presently being adequately accounted for.     

Sensitivity of Global and Regional Terrestrial Carbon Storage to the Direct CO2 Effect and Climate Change Based on the CMIP5 Model Intercomparison

Global and regional land carbon storage has been significantly affected by increasing atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate change. Based on fully coupled climate-carbon-cycle simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), we investigate sensitivities of land carbon storage to rising atmospheric CO₂ concentration and climate change over the world and 21 regions during the 130 years. Overall, the simulations suggest that consistently spatial positive effects of the increasing CO₂ concentrations on land carbon storage are expressed with a multi-model averaged value of 1.04PgC per ppm. The stronger positive values are mainly located in the broad areas of temperate and tropical forest, especially in Amazon basin and western Africa. However, large heterogeneity distributed for sensitivities of land carbon storage to climate change. Climate change causes decrease in land carbon storage in most tropics and the Southern Hemisphere. In these regions, decrease in soil moisture (MRSO) and enhanced drought somewhat contribute to such a decrease accompanied with rising temperature. Conversely, an increase in land carbon storage has been observed in high latitude and altitude regions (e.g., northern Asia and Tibet). The model simulations also suggest that global negative impacts of climate change on land carbon storage are predominantly attributed to decrease in land carbon storage in tropics. Although current warming can lead to an increase in land storage of high latitudes of Northern Hemisphere due to elevated vegetation growth, a risk of exacerbated future climate change may be induced due to release of carbon from tropics.     

Response of terrestrial carbon uptake to climate interannual variability in China

The interest in national terrestrial ecosystem carbon budgets has been increasing because the Kyoto Protocol has included some terrestrial carbon sinks in a legally binding framework for controlling greenhouse gases emissions. Accurate quantification of the terrestrial carbon sink must account the interannual variations associated with climate variability and change. This study used a process‐based biogeochemical model and a remote sensing‐based production efficiency model to estimate the variations in net primary production (NPP), soil heterotrophic respiration (HR), and net ecosystem production (NEP) caused by climate variability and atmospheric CO₂ increases in China during the period 1981–2000. The results show that China's terrestrial NPP varied between 2.86 and 3.37 Gt C yr^?1 with a growth rate of 0.32% year^?1 and HR varied between 2.89 and 3.21 Gt C yr^?1 with a growth rate of 0.40% year^?1 in the period 1981–1998. Whereas the increases in HR were related mainly to warming, the increases in NPP were attributed to increases in precipitation and atmospheric CO₂. Net ecosystem production (NEP) varied between ?0.32 and 0.25 Gt C yr^?1 with a mean value of 0.07 Gt C yr^?1, leading to carbon accumulation of 0.79 Gt in vegetation and 0.43 Gt in soils during the period. To the interannual variations in NEP changes in NPP contributed more than HR in arid northern China but less in moist southern China. NEP had no a statistically significant trend, but the mean annual NEP for the 1990s was lower than for the 1980s as the increases in NEP in southern China were offset by the decreases in northern China. These estimates indicate that China's terrestrial ecosystems were taking up carbon but the capacity was undermined by the ongoing climate change. The estimated NEP related to climate variation and atmospheric CO₂ increases may account for from 40 to 80% to the total terrestrial carbon sink in China.     

Shifts in functional traits elevate risk of fire‐driven tree dieback in tropical savanna and forest biomes

Numerous predictions indicate rising CO₂ will accelerate the expansion of forests into savannas. Although encroaching forests can sequester carbon over the short term, increased fires and drought‐fire interactions could offset carbon gains, which may be amplified by the shift toward forest plant communities more susceptible to fire‐driven dieback. We quantify how bark thickness determines the ability of individual tree species to tolerate fire and subsequently determine the fire sensitivity of ecosystem carbon across 180 plots in savannas and forests throughout the 2.2‐million km² Cerrado region in Brazil. We find that not accounting for variation in bark thickness across tree species underestimated carbon losses in forests by ~50%, totaling 0.22 PgC across the Cerrado region. The lower bark thicknesses of plant species in forests decreased fire tolerance to such an extent that a third of carbon gains during forest encroachment may be at risk of dieback if burned. These results illustrate that consideration of trait‐based differences in fire tolerance is critical for determining the climate‐carbon‐fire feedback in tropical savanna and forest biomes.     

Comparing global models of terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP): analysis of the seasonal atmospheric CO2 signal

Eight terrestrial biospheric models (TBMs) calculating the monthly distributions of both net primary productivity (NPP) and soil heterotrophic respiration (R_H) in the Potsdam NPP Model Intercomparison workshop are used to simulate seasonal patterns of atmospheric CO₂ concentration. For each model, we used net ecosystem productivity (NEP = NPP – R_H) as the source function in the TM2 atmospheric transport model from the Max-Planck Institute for Meteorology. Comparing the simulated concentration fields with detrended measurements from 25 monitoring stations spread over the world, we found that the decreasing seasonal amplitude from north to south is rather well reproduced by all the models, though the amplitudes are slightly too low in the north. The agreement between the simulated and observed seasonality is good in the northern hemisphere, but poor in the southern hemisphere, even when the ocean is accounted for. Based on a Fourier analysis of the calculated zonal atmospheric signals, tropical NEP plays a key role in the seasonal cycle of the atmospheric CO₂ in the whole southern hemisphere. The relatively poor match between measured and predicted atmospheric CO₂ in this hemisphere suggests problems with all the models. The simulation of water relations, a dominant regulator of NEP in the tropics, is a leading candidate for the source of these problems.     

Reconstruction and attribution of the carbon sink of European forests between 1950 and 2000

European forests are an important carbon sink; however, the relative contributions to this sink of climate, atmospheric CO₂ concentration ([CO₂]), nitrogen deposition and forest management are under debate. We attributed the European carbon sink in forests using ORCHIDEE‐FM, a process‐based vegetation model that differs from earlier versions of ORCHIDEE by its explicit representation of stand growth and idealized forest management. The model was applied on a grid across Europe to simulate changes in the net ecosystem productivity (NEP) of forests with and without changes in climate, [CO₂] and age structure, the three drivers represented in ORCHIDEE‐FM. The model simulates carbon stocks and volume increment that are comparable – root mean square error of 2 m³ ha^?1 yr^?1 and 1.7 kg C m^?2 respectively – with inventory‐derived estimates at country level for 20 European countries. Our simulations estimate a mean European forest NEP of 175 ± 52 g C m^?2 yr^?1 in the 1990s. The model simulation that is most consistent with inventory records provides an upwards trend of forest NEP of 1 ± 0.5 g C m^?2 yr^?2 between 1950 and 2000 across the EU 25. Furthermore, the method used for reconstructing past age structure was found to dominate its contribution to temporal trends in NEP. The potentially large fertilizing effect of nitrogen deposition cannot be told apart, as the model does not explicitly simulate the nitrogen cycle. Among the three drivers that were considered in this study, the fertilizing effect of increasing [CO₂] explains about 61% of the simulated trend, against 26% to changes in climate and 13% only to changes in forest age structure. The major role of [CO₂] at the continental scale is due to its homogeneous impact on net primary productivity (NPP). At the local scale, however, changes in climate and forest age structure often dominate trends in NEP by affecting NPP and heterotrophic respiration.     

Combined global change effects on ecosystem processes in nine U.S. topographically complex areas

Concurrent changes in climate, atmospheric nitrogen (N) deposition, and increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) affect ecosystems in complex ways. The DayCent-Chem model was used to investigate the combined effects of these human-caused drivers of change over the period 1980–2075 at seven forested montane and two alpine watersheds in the United States. Net ecosystem production (NEP) increased linearly with increasing N deposition for six out of seven forested watersheds; warming directly increased NEP at only two of these sites. Warming reduced soil organic carbon storage at all sites by increasing heterotrophic respiration. At most sites, warming together with high N deposition increased nitrous oxide (N₂O) emissions enough to negate the greenhouse benefit of soil carbon sequestration alone, though there was a net greenhouse gas sink across nearly all sites mainly due to the effect of CO₂ fertilization and associated sequestration by plants. Over the simulation period, an increase in atmospheric CO₂ from 350 to 600 ppm was the main driver of change in net ecosystem greenhouse gas sequestration at all forested sites and one of two alpine sites, but an additional increase in CO₂ from 600 to 760 ppm produced smaller effects. Warming either increased or decreased net greenhouse gas sequestration, depending on the site. The N contribution to net ecosystem greenhouse gas sequestration averaged across forest sites was only 5–7 % and was negligible for the alpine. Stream nitrate (NO₃ ^?) fluxes increased sharply with N-loading, primarily at three watersheds where initial N deposition values were high relative to terrestrial N uptake capacity. The simulated results displayed fewer synergistic responses to warming, N-loading, and CO₂ fertilization than expected. Overall, simulations with DayCent-Chem suggest individual site characteristics and historical patterns of N deposition are important determinants of forest or alpine ecosystem responses to global change.     

基于集成生物圈模型的南岭不同植被类型碳收支研究

广东南岭保存着世界上同纬度带上最完整的亚热带植被,森林资源丰富,具有巨大的固碳潜力。然而,目前该地区不同森林植被类型的碳收支年积累量特征及月动态规律尚不明确。选择广东南岭国家级自然保护区内沟谷常绿阔叶林、山地常绿阔叶林、针阔叶混交林和山顶常绿阔叶矮林4种典型森林植被为研究对象,运用集成生物圈模型(IBIS)对其2020年总初级生产力(GPP)、净初级生产力(NPP)、净生态系统生产力(NEP)和土壤异养呼吸(R_h)进行模拟,利用样地调查数据对NPP模拟结果进行验证,分析该地区不同植被类型的碳收支年积累量特征及月变化特征。研究结果表明,2020年南岭不同植被类型GPP、NPP、NEP和R_h的平均值分别为1.709、0.718、0.596和0.123 kg C m^-2 a^-1,4种植被类型中GPP最高的是沟谷常绿阔叶林,NPP、NEP最高的是山地常绿阔叶林,山顶常绿阔叶矮林的GPP、NPP和NEP均相对较低。南岭不同植被类型全年各月均表现出碳汇(NEP>0),逐月NPP和NEP均表现为双峰变化规律...     

Spatial and temporal variability of net ecosystem production in a tropical forest: testing the hypothesis of a significant carbon sink

Tropical forest ecosystems play an important role in the global carbon balance. Depending on age and land use, they can act as carbon sources, sinks, or be in approximate balance, but it is uncertain if global environmental changes are forcing these ecosystems outside their natural range of variation. We asked the question of whether or not the net carbon flux of a tropical primary forest, which should be in balance over the long term, is within the expected range of natural variation. A simple Bayesian hypothesis testing method was used to address this question for primary forests in the Porce region of Colombia. Net ecosystem production (NEP) was measured in this forest in a set of 33 permanent plots from 2000 to 2002 in 2, 1‐year intervals. Our estimate of NEP ranged between −4.03 and 2.22 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹ for the two intervals. This range was compared with a priori defined range of natural variation estimated from the ecosystem model STANDCARB, which estimated spatial and temporal variation due to gap dynamics. The prior range of variation was estimated between −1.5 and 1.5 Mg C ha⁻¹ yr⁻¹. The observed data on NEP did not provide sufficient evidence to reject the null hypothesis that these forests are in C balance. We concluded that the ecosystem is likely behaving within its range of natural variation, but measurement uncertainties were a major limitation to finding evidence to reject the null hypothesis. A literature review of C flux studies in the tropics revealed that about half of the observations could be explained by gap dynamics alone, while significant C sinks have only been observed during La Niña years, with contrasting results in other tropical forests. In conclusion, observational data of carbon fluxes do not appear to provide direct evidence for a significant carbon sink in some sites in the tropics.     

甘南地区二氧化碳施肥效应对生态系统的影响

陆地生态系统是全球第二大碳库,其碳收支一直是气候变化研究的热点领域,而研究二氧化碳（CO₂）施肥效应又是全球变化碳循环领域较为关注的前沿部分。CO₂与生态系统关系复杂,当前仍无法厘清CO₂对陆地生态系统碳循环的影响作用。基于太阳辐射数据、气温数据及归一化植被指数数据等,利用光能利用率遥感模型,模拟2019年甘南地区的碳循环,选取三个指标,即GPP （陆地生态系统总初级生产力）、NPP （净初级生产力）和NEP （净生态系统生产力）来分析甘南地区植被固碳的时空变化特征及CO₂施肥效应。结果表明：（1）甘南地区2019年植被固碳总量约为2611 tC。甘南地区生态系统GPP、NPP和NEP季节性特征明显,其值均在夏季达到最高;而在空间上,GPP、NPP表现为东高西低的特征,NEP呈现出北高南低的分布特征。（2） CO₂对GPP、NPP存在正向的施肥效应,分别增加了14.4%和14.3%;而对NEP具有负向反馈效应,使其减少了0.3%,并且CO₂对NEP的影响整体也表现为北高南低的特征。研究揭示出：虽然CO₂在提升GPP和NPP时,正向的施肥效应明显,但是对甘南地区的NEP,即固碳量来说,CO₂的影响却很有限。因此在研究CO₂施肥效应时不应一概而论,生态地理环境对其的影响不可忽视。研究可以为揭示陆地生态系统碳循环的动态机制提供一定的理论依据。     

Carbon cycling and storage in world forests: biome patterns related to forest age

Forest age, which is affected by stand‐replacing ecosystem disturbances (such as forest fires, harvesting, or insects), plays a distinguishing role in determining the distribution of carbon (C) pools and fluxes in different forested ecosystems. In this synthesis, net primary productivity (NPP), net ecosystem productivity (NEP), and five pools of C (living biomass, coarse woody debris, organic soil horizons, soil, and total ecosystem) are summarized by age class for tropical, temperate, and boreal forest biomes. Estimates of variability in NPP, NEP, and C pools are provided for each biome‐age class combination and the sources of variability are discussed. Aggregated biome‐level estimates of NPP and NEP were higher in intermediate‐aged forests (e.g., 30–120 years), while older forests (e.g., >120 years) were generally less productive. The mean NEP in the youngest forests (0–10 years) was negative (source to the atmosphere) in both boreal and temperate biomes (?0.1 and –1.9 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1, respectively). Forest age is a highly significant source of variability in NEP at the biome scale; for example, mean temperate forest NEP was ?1.9, 4.5, 2.4, 1.9 and 1.7 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1 across five age classes (0–10, 11–30, 31–70, 71–120, 121–200 years, respectively). In general, median NPP and NEP are strongly correlated (R²=0.83) across all biomes and age classes, with the exception of the youngest temperate forests. Using the information gained from calculating the summary statistics for NPP and NEP, we calculated heterotrophic soil respiration (R_h) for each age class in each biome. The mean R_h was high in the youngest temperate age class (9.7 Mg C ha^?1 yr^?1) and declined with age, implying that forest ecosystem respiration peaks when forests are young, not old. With notable exceptions, carbon pool sizes increased with age in all biomes, including soil C. Age trends in C cycling and storage are very apparent in all three biomes and it is clear that a better understanding of how forest age and disturbance history interact will greatly improve our fundamental knowledge of the terrestrial C cycle.     

Carbon dioxide balance of a tropical peat swamp forest in Kalimantan, Indonesia

Tropical peatlands, which coexist with swamp forests, have accumulated vast amounts of carbon as soil organic matter. Since the 1970s, however, deforestation and drainage have progressed on an enormous scale. In addition, El Niño and Southern Oscillation (ENSO) drought and large‐scale fires, which grow larger under the drought condition, are accelerating peatland devastation. That devastation enhances decomposition of soil organic matter and increases the carbon release to the atmosphere as CO₂. This phenomenon suggests that tropical peatlands have already become a large CO₂ source, but related quantitative information is limited. Therefore, we evaluated the CO₂ balance of a tropical peat swamp forest in Central Kalimantan, Indonesia, using 3 years of CO₂ fluxes measured using the eddy covariance technique from 2002 through 2004. The forest was disturbed by drainage; consequently, groundwater level (GL) was reduced. The net ecosystem CO₂ production (NEP) measurements showed seasonal variation, which was slightly positive or almost zero in the early dry season, and most‐negative late in the dry season or early the rainy season. This seasonality is attributable to the seasonal pattern of climate, tree phenology and fires. Slightly positive NEP resulted from smaller ecosystem respiration (RE) and larger gross primary production (GPP) under conditions of high photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD) and large leaf area index (LAI). The most‐negative NEP resulted from smaller GPP and larger RE. The smaller GPP was related to high vapor pressure deficit (VPD), small LAI and low PPFD because of smoke from fires. The larger RE was related to low GL. Annual NEP values were estimated respectively as −602, −382 and −313 g C m⁻² yr⁻¹ for 2002, 2003 and 2004. These negative NEP values show that the tropical peat swamp forest, disturbed by drainage, functioned as a CO₂ source. That source intensity was highest in 2002, an ENSO year, mainly because of low PPFD caused by dense smoke emitted from large fires.     

Net landscape carbon balance of a tropical savanna: Relative importance of fire and aquatic export in offsetting terrestrial production

The magnitude of the terrestrial carbon (C) sink may be overestimated globally due to the difficulty of accounting for all C losses across heterogeneous landscapes. More complete assessments of net landscape C balances (NLCB) are needed that integrate both emissions by fire and transfer to aquatic systems, two key loss pathways of terrestrial C. These pathways can be particularly significant in the wet–dry tropics, where fire plays a fundamental part in ecosystems and where intense rainfall and seasonal flooding can result in considerable aquatic C export (ΣF_aq). Here, we determined the NLCB of a lowland catchment (~140 km²) in tropical Australia over 2 years by evaluating net terrestrial productivity (NEP), fire‐related C emissions and ΣF_aq (comprising both downstream transport and gaseous evasion) for the two main landscape components, that is, savanna woodland and seasonal wetlands. We found that the catchment was a large C sink (NLCB 334 Mg C km^?2 year^?1), and that savanna and wetland areas contributed 84% and 16% to this sink, respectively. Annually, fire emissions (?56 Mg C km^?2 year^?1) and ΣF_aq (?28 Mg C km^?2 year^?1) reduced NEP by 13% and 7%, respectively. Savanna burning shifted the catchment to a net C source for several months during the dry season, while ΣF_aq significantly offset NEP during the wet season, with a disproportionate contribution by single major monsoonal events—up to 39% of annual ΣF_aq was exported in one event. We hypothesize that wetter and hotter conditions in the wet–dry tropics in the future will increase ΣF_aq and fire emissions, potentially further reducing the current C sink in the region. More long‐term studies are needed to upscale this first NLCB estimate to less productive, yet hydrologically dynamic regions of the wet–dry tropics where our result indicating a significant C sink may not hold.