Persistent Difficulties in Switching to Second-Line ART in Sub-Saharan Africa — A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis

Objectives

Switching to second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) largely depends on careful clinical assessment and access to biological measurements. We performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to estimate the incidence of switching to second-line ART in sub-Saharan Africa and its main programmatic determinants.

Methods

We searched 2 databases for studies reporting the incidence rate of switching to second-line ART in adults living in sub-Saharan Africa. Data on the incidence rate of switching were pooled, and random-effect models were used to evaluate the effect of factors measured at the programme level on this incidence rate.

Results

Nine studies (157,340 patients) in 21 countries were included in the meta-analysis. All studies considered patients under first-line ART and conditions to initiate ART were similar across studies. Overall, 3,736 (2.4%) patients switched to second-line ART. Incidence rate of switch was in mean 2.65 per 100 person-years (PY) (95% confidence interval: 2.01–3.30); it ranged from 0.42 to 4.88 per 100 PY and from 0 to 4.80 per 100 PY in programmes with and without viral load monitoring, respectively. No factors measured at the programme level were associated with the incidence rate of switching to second-line ART.

Conclusion

The low incidence rate of switching to second-line ART suggests that the monitoring of patients under ART is challenging and that access to second-line ART is ineffective; efforts should be made to increase access to second-line ART to those in need by providing monitoring tools, education and training, as well as a more convenient regimen.     

Hidden Drug Resistant HIV to Emerge in the Era of Universal Treatment Access in Southeast Asia

Background

Universal access to first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) for HIV infection is becoming more of a reality in most low and middle income countries in Asia. However, second-line therapies are relatively scarce.

Methods and Findings

We developed a mathematical model of an HIV epidemic in a Southeast Asian setting and used it to forecast the impact of treatment plans, without second-line options, on the potential degree of acquisition and transmission of drug resistant HIV strains. We show that after 10 years of universal treatment access, up to 20% of treatment-naïve individuals with HIV may have drug-resistant strains but it depends on the relative fitness of viral strains.

Conclusions

If viral load testing of people on ART is carried out on a yearly basis and virological failure leads to effective second-line therapy, then transmitted drug resistance could be reduced by 80%. Greater efforts are required for minimizing first-line failure, to detect virological failure earlier, and to procure access to second-line therapies.     

The Impact of Choice of NNRTI on Short-Term Treatment Outcomes among HIV-Infected Patients Prescribed Tenofovir and Lamivudine in Johannesburg,South Africa

Introduction

Recent WHO guidelines for resource-limited settings recommend tenofovir in first-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) yet there are suggestions that patients receiving nevirapine with tenofovir have worse outcomes than those receiving efavirenz. We sought to compare outcomes among those taking nevirapine vs. efavirenz with tenofovir and lamivudine.

Methods

We analyzed data on ART naïve, non-pregnant patients, ≥18 years old without tuberculosis co-infection, initiating tenofovir with lamivudine and either nevirapine or efavirenz between April 1, 2010 and July 31, 2011 (when South Africa’s public-sector use of tenofovir began) at Themba Lethu Clinic in South Africa. We measured virologic suppression (viral load <400 copies/ml), virologic failure (2 consecutive viral loads >1000 copies/ml), and attrition (death/loss to follow-up) all at 12 months after ART initiation. Modified Poisson regression with robust error estimation was used to estimate risk ratios (RR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for predictors of each outcome.

Results

2,254 patients were prescribed efavirenz, 131 nevirapine. Patients were followed a median (range) of 12.0 (0.1–12.0) person-months. 62.2% were female and median (IQR) age was 37.7 years (31.5–44.1). Patients prescribed efavirenz had similar initiating CD4 counts (median 132 for both regimens) but were somewhat more likely to be WHO Stage III or IV (39.6% vs. 33.6%) than those prescribed nevirapine. No difference in attrition was found (aRR: 0.83; 95% CI: 0.49–1.41). Among patients with ≥1 viral load within 1 year on ART, those prescribed nevirapine were as likely to reach virologic suppression (aRR: 0.97; 95% CI: 0.88–1.07) but more likely to experience virologic failure (aRR: 1.84; 95% CI: 1.02–3.31) than those prescribed efavirenz.

Conclusions

Our results support the notion that, among patients prescribed tenofovir and lamivudine, virologic failure is more common among those taking nevirapine than among those taking efavirenz. Longer-term follow up and larger studies will be needed to confirm this finding.     

The Potential Cost and Benefits of Raltegravir in Simplified Second-Line Therapy among HIV Infected Patients in Nigeria and South Africa

Background

There is an urgent need to improve the evidence base for provision of second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) following first-line virological failure. This is particularly the case in Sub-Saharan Africa where 70% of all people living with HIV/AIDS (PHA) reside. The aim of this study was to simulate the potential risks and benefits of treatment simplification in second-line therapy compared to the current standard of care (SOC) in a lower-middle income and an upper-middle income country in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Methods

We developed a microsimulation model to compare outcomes associated with reducing treatment discontinuations between current SOC for second-line therapy in South Africa and Nigeria and an alternative regimen: ritonavir-boosted lopinavir (LPV/r) combined with raltegravir (RAL). We used published studies and collaborating sites to estimate efficacy, adverse effect and cost. Model outcomes were reported as incremental cost effectiveness ratios (ICERs) in 2011 USD per quality adjusted life year ($/QALY) gained.

Results

Reducing treatment discontinuations with LPV/r+RAL resulted in an additional 0.4 discounted QALYs and increased the undiscounted life expectancy by 0.8 years per person compared to the current SOC. The average incremental cost was $6,525 per treated patient in Nigeria and $4,409 per treated patient in South Africa. The cost-effectiveness ratios were $16,302/QALY gained and $11,085/QALY gained for Nigeria and South Africa, respectively. Our results were sensitive to the probability of ART discontinuation and the unit cost for RAL.

Conclusions

The combination of raltegravir and ritonavir-boosted lopinavir was projected to be cost-effective in South Africa. However, at its current price, it is unlikely to be cost-effective in Nigeria.     

Long-term costs and health impact of continued global fund support for antiretroviral therapy

Background

By the end of 2011 Global Fund investments will be supporting 3.5 million people on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in 104 low- and middle-income countries. We estimated the cost and health impact of continuing treatment for these patients through 2020.

Methods and Findings

Survival on first-line and second-line ART regimens is estimated based on annual retention rates reported by national AIDS programs. Costs per patient-year were calculated from country-reported ARV procurement prices, and expenditures on laboratory tests, health care utilization and end-of-life care from in-depth costing studies. Of the 3.5 million ART patients in 2011, 2.3 million will still need treatment in 2020. The annual cost of maintaining ART falls from $1.9 billion in 2011 to $1.7 billion in 2020, as a result of a declining number of surviving patients partially offset by increasing costs as more patients migrate to second-line therapy. The Global Fund is expected to continue being a major contributor to meeting this financial need, alongside other international funders and domestic resources. Costs would be $150 million less in 2020 with an annual 5% decline in first-line ARV prices and $150–370 million less with a 5%–12% annual decline in second-line prices, but $200 million higher in 2020 with phase out of stavudine (d4T), or $200 million higher with increased migration to second-line regimens expected if all countries routinely adopted viral load monitoring. Deaths postponed by ART correspond to 830,000 life-years saved in 2011, increasing to around 2.3 million life-years every year between 2015 and 2020.

Conclusions

Annual patient-level direct costs of supporting a patient cohort remain fairly stable over 2011–2020, if current antiretroviral prices and delivery costs are maintained. Second-line antiretroviral prices are a major cost driver, underscoring the importance of investing in treatment quality to improve retention on first-line regimens.     

HIV-infected children in rural Zambia achieve good immunologic and virologic outcomes two years after initiating antiretroviral therapy

Background

Many HIV-infected children in sub-Saharan Africa reside in rural areas, yet most research on treatment outcomes has been conducted in urban centers. Rural clinics and residents may face unique barriers to care and treatment.

Methods

A prospective cohort study of HIV-infected children was conducted between September 2007 and September 2010 at the rural HIV clinic in Macha, Zambia. HIV-infected children younger than 16 years of age at study enrollment who received antiretroviral therapy (ART) during the study were eligible. Treatment outcomes during the first two years of ART, including mortality, immunologic status, and virologic suppression, were assessed and risk factors for mortality and virologic suppression were evaluated.

Results

A total of 69 children entered the study receiving ART and 198 initiated ART after study enrollment. The cumulative probabilities of death among children starting ART after study enrollment were 9.0% and 14.4% at 6 and 24 months after ART initiation. Younger age, higher viral load, lower CD4+ T-cell percentage and lower weight-for-age z-scores at ART initiation were associated with higher risk of mortality. The mean CD4⁺ T-cell percentage increased from 16.3% at treatment initiation to 29.3% and 35.0% at 6 and 24 months. The proportion of children with undetectable viral load increased to 88.5% and 77.8% at 6 and 24 months. Children with longer travel times (≥5 hours) and those taking nevirapine at ART initiation, as well as children who were non-adherent, were less likely to achieve virologic suppression after 6 months of ART.

Conclusions

HIV-infected children receiving treatment in a rural clinic experienced sustained immunologic and virologic improvements. Children with longer travel times were less likely to achieve virologic suppression, supporting the need for decentralized models of ART delivery.     

HIV Drug Resistance Early Warning Indicators in Namibia for Public Health Action

Background

HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) testing is not routinely available in many resource-limited settings, therefore antiretroviral therapy (ART) program and site factors known to be associated with emergence of HIVDR should be monitored to optimize the quality of patient care and minimize the emergence of preventable HIVDR.

Methods

In 2010, Namibia selected five World Health Organization Early Warning Indicators (EWIs) and scaled-up monitoring from 9 to 33 ART sites: ART prescribing practices, Patients lost to follow-up (LTFU) at 12 months, Patients switched to a second-line regimen at 12 months, On-time antiretroviral (ARV) drug pick-up, and ARV drug-supply continuity.

Results

Records allowed reporting on three of the five selected EWIs. 22 of 33 (67%) sites met the target of 100% initiated on appropriate first-line regimens. 17 of 33 (52%) sites met the target of ≤20% LTFU. 15 of 33 (45%) sites met the target of 0% switched to a second-line regimen.

Conclusions

EWI monitoring directly resulted in public health action which will optimize the quality of care, specifically the strengthening of ART record systems, engagement of ART sites, and operational research for improved adherence assessment and ART patient defaulter tracing.     

Sustained Virological Response on Second-Line Antiretroviral Therapy following Virological Failure in HIV-Infected Patients in Rural South Africa

Objective

This study aims to describe the virological, immunological and clinical efficacy of protease inhibitor (PI)-based second-line antiretroviral therapy (ART) in rural South Africa.

Methods

An observational cohort study was performed on 210 patients (including 39 children) who initiated PI-based second-line therapy at least 12 months prior to data collection. Biannual clinical, immunological and virological monitoring was performed. Primary endpoints were adequate virological response (plasma HIV-1 RNA<400 copies/ml), full virological suppression (plasma HIV-1 RNA<50 copies/ml) and treatment failure (virological failure (plasma HIV-1 RNA>1000 after initial virological response) or on-going viremia (plasma HIV-1 RNA never<400 copies/ml for more than six months)). Data were analyzed by an on-treatment (OT) and intention-to-treat (ITT) approach. Analyses were primarily performed on the group of patients who switched following first-line virological failure.

Results

Median duration of follow-up after switch to second-line treatment was 20 months [IQR 11–35]. 191 patients had switched to second-line ART due to first-line virological failure. 139/191 of them (72.8%, ITT) were in care and on treatment at the end of follow-up and 11/191 (5.8%, ITT) had died. After twelve months, an adequate virological response was seen in 92/128 patients (71.9%, OT), of which 78/128 (60.9%, OT) experienced full virological suppression. Virological response remained stable after 24 months. Virological efficacy was similar amongst adult and pediatric patients. As in first-line ART, we observed a lack of correlation between virological failure and WHO-defined immunological failure.

Conclusions

Good virological outcomes following first-line failure can be achieved with PI-based, second-line antiretroviral therapy in both adult and pediatric patients in rural South Africa. Retention rates were high and virological outcomes were sustainable during the two-year follow-up period, although persisting low-level viremia occurred in a subset of patients. The observed viro-immunological dissociation emphasizes the need for virological monitoring.     

Monitoring of Antiretroviral Therapy and Mortality in HIV Programmes in Malawi,South Africa and Zambia: Mathematical Modelling Study

Objectives

Mortality in patients starting antiretroviral therapy (ART) is higher in Malawi and Zambia than in South Africa. We examined whether different monitoring of ART (viral load [VL] in South Africa and CD4 count in Malawi and Zambia) could explain this mortality difference.

Design:

Mathematical modelling study based on data from ART programmes.

Methods

We used a stochastic simulation model to study the effect of VL monitoring on mortality over 5 years. In baseline scenario A all parameters were identical between strategies except for more timely and complete detection of treatment failure with VL monitoring. Additional scenarios introduced delays in switching to second-line ART (scenario B) or higher virologic failure rates (due to worse adherence) when monitoring was based on CD4 counts only (scenario C). Results are presented as relative risks (RR) with 95% prediction intervals and percent of observed mortality difference explained.

Results

RRs comparing VL with CD4 cell count monitoring were 0.94 (0.74–1.03) in scenario A, 0.94 (0.77–1.02) with delayed switching (scenario B) and 0.80 (0.44–1.07) when assuming a 3-times higher rate of failure (scenario C). The observed mortality at 3 years was 10.9% in Malawi and Zambia and 8.6% in South Africa (absolute difference 2.3%). The percentage of the mortality difference explained by VL monitoring ranged from 4% (scenario A) to 32% (scenarios B and C combined, assuming a 3-times higher failure rate). Eleven percent was explained by non-HIV related mortality.

Conclusions

VL monitoring reduces mortality moderately when assuming improved adherence and decreased failure rates.     

Predictive Factors of Plasma HIV Suppression during Pregnancy: A Prospective Cohort Study in Benin

Objective

To investigate the factors associated with HIV₁ RNA plasma viral load (pVL) below 40 copies/mL at the third trimester of pregnancy, as part of prevention of mother-to-child transmission (PMTCT) in Benin.

Design

Sub study of the PACOME clinical trial of malaria prophylaxis in HIV-infected pregnant women, conducted before and after the implementation of the WHO 2009 revised guidelines for PMTCT.

Methods

HIV-infected women were enrolled in the second trimester of pregnancy. Socio-economic characteristics, HIV history, clinical and biological characteristics were recorded. Malaria prevention and PMTCT involving antiretroviral therapy (ART) for mothers and infants were provided. Logistic regression helped identifying factors associated with virologic suppression at the end of pregnancy.

Results

Overall 217 third trimester pVLs were available, and 71% showed undetectability. Virologic suppression was more frequent in women enrolled after the change in PMTCT recommendations, advising to start ART at 14 weeks instead of 28 weeks of pregnancy. In multivariate analysis, Fon ethnic group (the predominant ethnic group in the study area), regular job, first and second pregnancy, higher baseline pVL and impaired adherence to ART were negative factors whereas higher weight, higher antenatal care attendance and longer ART duration were favorable factors to achieve virologic suppression.

Conclusions

This study provides more evidence that ART has to be initiated before the last trimester of pregnancy to achieve an undetectable pVL before delivery. In Benin, new recommendations supporting early initiation were well implemented and, together with a high antenatal care attendance, led to high rate of virologic control.     

A Randomized,Controlled, Trial of Short Cycle Intermittent Compared to Continuous Antiretroviral Therapy for the Treatment of HIV Infection in Uganda

Background

Short cycle treatment interruption could reduce toxicity and drug costs and contribute to further expansion of antiretroviral therapy (ART) programs.

Methods

A 72 week, non-inferiority trial enrolled one hundred forty six HIV positive persons receiving ART (CD4+ cell count ≥125 cells/mm³ and HIV RNA plasma levels <50 copies/ml) in one of three arms: continuous, 7 days on/7 days off and 5 days on/2 days off treatment. Primary endpoint was ART treatment failure determined by plasma HIV RNA level, CD4+ cell count decrease, death attributed to study participation, or opportunistic infection.

Results

Following enrollment of 32 participants, the 7 days on/7 days off arm was closed because of a failure rate of 31%. Six of 52 (11.5%) participants in the 5 days on/2 days off arm failed. Five had virologic failure and one participant had immunologic failure. Eleven of 51 (21.6%) participants in the continuous treatment arm failed. Nine had virologic failure with 1 death (lactic acidosis) and 1 clinical failure (extra-pulmonary TB). The upper 97.5% confidence boundary for the difference between the percent of non-failures in the 5 days on/2 days off arm (88.5% non-failure) compared to continuous treatment (78.4% non failure) was 4.8% which is well within the preset non-inferiority margin of 15%. No significant difference was found in time to failure in the 2 study arms (p = 0.39).

Conclusions

Short cycle 5 days on/2 days off intermittent ART was at least as effective as continuous therapy.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00339456","term_id":"NCT00339456"}}NCT00339456     

Effect of Peer Health Workers on AIDS Care in Rakai,Uganda: A Cluster-Randomized Trial

Background

Human resource limitations are a challenge to the delivery of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in low-resource settings. We conducted a cluster randomized trial to assess the effect of community-based peer health workers (PHW) on AIDS care of adults in Rakai, Uganda.

Methodology/Principal Findings

15 AIDS clinics were randomized 2∶1 to receive the PHW intervention (n = 10) or control (n = 5). PHW tasks included clinic and home-based provision of counseling, clinical, adherence to ART, and social support. Primary outcomes were adherence and cumulative risk of virologic failure (>400 copies/mL). Secondary outcomes were virologic failure at each 24 week time point up to 192 weeks of ART. Analysis was by intention to treat. From May 2006 to July 2008, 1336 patients were followed. 444 (33%) of these patients were already on ART at the start of the study. No significant differences were found in lack of adherence (<95% pill count adherence risk ratio [RR] 0.55, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.23–1.35; <100% adherence RR 1.10, 95% CI 0.94–1.30), cumulative risk of virologic failure (RR 0.81, 95% CI 0.61–1.08) or in shorter-term virologic outcomes (24 week virologic failure RR 0.93, 95% CI 0.65–1.32; 48 week, RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.47–1.48; 72 week, RR 0.81, 95% CI 0.44–1.49). However, virologic failure rates ≥96 weeks into ART were significantly decreased in the intervention arm compared to the control arm (96 week failure RR 0.50, 95% CI 0.31–0.81; 120 week, RR 0.59, 95% CI 0.22–1.60; 144 week, RR 0.39, 95% CI 0.16–0.95; 168 week, RR 0.30, 95% CI 0.097–0.92; 192 week, RR 0.067, 95% CI 0.0065–0.71).

Conclusions/Significance

A PHW intervention was associated with decreased virologic failure rates occurring 96 weeks and longer into ART, but did not affect cumulative risk of virologic failure, adherence measures, or shorter-term virologic outcomes. PHWs may be an effective intervention to sustain long-term ART in low-resource settings.

Trial Registration

ClinicalTrials.gov {"type":"clinical-trial","attrs":{"text":"NCT00675389","term_id":"NCT00675389"}}NCT00675389     

Outcome of Assisted Reproductive Technology (ART) and Subsequent Self-Reported Life Satisfaction

Objective

To compare life satisfaction between women with successful or unsuccessful outcome after assisted reproductive treatment (ART) by taking into account the time since the last ART.

Design

Cohort study.

Setting

Tertiary hospital.

Patients

A total of 987 consecutive women who had undergone ART during 1996–2007 were invited and altogether 505 women participated in the study.

Interventions

A postal enquiry with a life satisfaction scale.

Main Outcome Measure

Self-reported life satisfaction in respect to the time since the last ART.

Results

In general, women who achieved a live birth after ART had a significantly higher life satisfaction than those who had unsuccessful ART, especially when compared in the first three years. The difference disappeared in the time period of 6–9 years after ART. The unsuccessfully treated women who had a child by some other means before or after the unsuccessful ART had comparable life satisfaction with successfully treated women even earlier.

Conclusions

Even if unsuccessful ART outcome is associated with subsequent lower level of life satisfaction, it does not seem to threaten the long-term wellbeing.     

Rates and Factors Associated with Major Modifications to First-Line Combination Antiretroviral Therapy: Results from the Asia-Pacific Region

Background

In the Asia-Pacific region many countries have adopted the WHO’s public health approach to HIV care and treatment. We performed exploratory analyses of the factors associated with first major modification to first-line combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-rich and resource-limited countries in the region.

Methods

We selected treatment naive HIV-positive adults from the Australian HIV Observational Database (AHOD) and the TREAT Asia HIV Observational Database (TAHOD). We dichotomised each country’s per capita income into high/upper-middle (T-H) and lower-middle/low (T-L). Survival methods stratified by income were used to explore time to first major modification of first-line ART and associated factors. We defined a treatment modification as either initiation of a new class of antiretroviral (ARV) or a substitution of two or more ARV agents from within the same ARV class.

Results

A total of 4250 patients had 961 major modifications to first-line ART in the first five years of therapy. The cumulative incidence (95% CI) of treatment modification was 0.48 (0.44–0.52), 0.33 (0.30–0.36) and 0.21 (0.18–0.23) for AHOD, T-H and T-L respectively. We found no strong associations between typical patient characteristic factors and rates of treatment modification. In AHOD, relative to sites that monitor twice-yearly (both CD4 and HIV RNA-VL), quarterly monitoring corresponded with a doubling of the rate of treatment modifications. In T-H, relative to sites that monitor once-yearly (both CD4 and HIV RNA-VL), monitoring twice-yearly corresponded to a 1.8 factor increase in treatment modifications. In T-L, no sites on average monitored both CD4 & HIV RNA-VL concurrently once-yearly. We found no differences in rates of modifications for once- or twice-yearly CD4 count monitoring.

Conclusions

Low-income countries tended to have lower rates of major modifications made to first-line ART compared to higher-income countries. In higher-income countries, an increased rate of RNA-VL monitoring was associated with increased modifications to first-line ART.     

Characteristics and Outcomes among Older HIV-Positive Adults Enrolled in HIV Programs in Four Sub-Saharan African Countries

Background

Limited information exists on adults ≥50 years receiving HIV care in sub-Saharan Africa.

Methodology

Using routinely-collected longitudinal patient-level data among 391,111 adults ≥15 years enrolling in HIV care from January 2005–December 2010 and 184,689 initiating ART, we compared characteristics and outcomes between older (≥50 years) and younger adults at 199 clinics in Kenya, Mozambique, Rwanda, and Tanzania. We calculated proportions over time of newly enrolled and active adults receiving HIV care and initiating ART who were ≥50 years; cumulative incidence of loss to follow-up (LTF) and recorded death one year after enrollment and ART initiation, and CD4+ response following ART initiation.

Findings

From 2005–2010, the percentage of adults ≥50 years newly enrolled in HIV care remained stable at 10%, while the percentage of adults ≥50 years newly initiating ART (10% [2005]-12% [2010]), active in follow-up (10% [2005]-14% (2010]), and active on ART (10% [2005]-16% [2010]) significantly increased. One year after enrollment, older patients had significantly lower incidence of LTF (33.1% vs. 32.6%[40–49 years], 40.5%[25–39 years], and 56.3%[15–24 years]; p-value<0.0001), but significantly higher incidence of recorded death (6.0% vs. 5.0% [40–49 years], 4.1% [25–39 years], and 2.8% [15–24 years]; p-valve<0.0001). LTF was lower after vs. before ART initiation for all ages, with older adults experiencing less LTF than younger adults. Among 85,763 ART patients with baseline and follow-up CD4+ counts, adjusted average 12-month CD4+ response for older adults was 20.6 cells/mm³ lower than for adults 25–39 years of age (95% CI: 17.1–24.1).

Conclusions

The proportion of patients who are ≥50 years has increased over time and been driven by aging of the existing patient population. Older patients experienced less LTF, higher recorded mortality and less robust CD4+ response after ART initiation. Increased programmatic attention on older adults receiving HIV care in sub-Saharan Africa is warranted.