Comparative analysis of European wide marine ecosystem shifts: a large-scale approach for developing the basis for ecosystem-based management

Abrupt and rapid ecosystem shifts (where major reorganizations of food-web and community structures occur), commonly termed regime shifts, are changes between contrasting and persisting states of ecosystem structure and function. These shifts have been increasingly reported for exploited marine ecosystems around the world from the North Pacific to the North Atlantic. Understanding the drivers and mechanisms leading to marine ecosystem shifts is crucial in developing adaptive management strategies to achieve sustainable exploitation of marine ecosystems. An international workshop on a comparative approach to analysing these marine ecosystem shifts was held at Hamburg University, Institute for Hydrobiology and Fisheries Science, Germany on 1-3 November 2010. Twenty-seven scientists from 14 countries attended the meeting, representing specialists from seven marine regions, including the Baltic Sea, the North Sea, the Barents Sea, the Black Sea, the Mediterranean Sea, the Bay of Biscay and the Scotian Shelf off the Canadian East coast. The goal of the workshop was to conduct the first large-scale comparison of marine ecosystem regime shifts across multiple regional areas, in order to support the development of ecosystem-based management strategies.     

Rising variance: a leading indicator of ecological transition

Regime shifts are substantial, long-lasting reorganizations of complex systems, such as ecosystems. Large ecosystem changes such as eutrophication, shifts among vegetation types, degradation of coral reefs and regional climate change often come as surprises because we lack leading indicators for regime shifts. Increases in variability of ecosystems have been suggested to foreshadow ecological regime shifts. However, it may be difficult to discern variability due to impending regime shift from that of exogenous drivers that affect the ecosystem. We addressed this problem using a model of lake eutrophication. Lakes are subject to fluctuations in recycling associated with regime shifts, as well as fluctuating nutrient inputs. Despite the complications of noisy inputs, increasing variability of lake-water phosphorus was discernible prior to the shift to eutrophic conditions. Simulations show that rising standard deviation (SD) could signal impending shifts about a decade in advance. The rising SD was detected by studying variability around predictions of a simple time-series model, and did not depend on detailed knowledge of the actual ecosystem dynamics.     

Synchronous marine pelagic regime shifts in the Northern Hemisphere

Regime shifts are characterized by sudden, substantial and temporally persistent changes in the state of an ecosystem. They involve major biological modifications and often have important implications for exploited living resources. In this study, we examine whether regime shifts observed in 11 marine systems from two oceans and three regional seas in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) are synchronous, applying the same methodology to all. We primarily infer marine pelagic regime shifts from abrupt shifts in zooplankton assemblages, with the exception of the East Pacific where ecosystem changes are inferred from fish. Our analyses provide evidence for quasi-synchronicity of marine pelagic regime shifts both within and between ocean basins, although these shifts lie embedded within considerable regional variability at both year-to-year and lower-frequency time scales. In particular, a regime shift was detected in the late 1980s in many studied marine regions, although the exact year of the observed shift varied somewhat from one basin to another. Another regime shift was also identified in the mid- to late 1970s but concerned less marine regions. We subsequently analyse the main biological signals in relation to changes in NH temperature and pressure anomalies. The results suggest that the main factor synchronizing regime shifts on large scales is NH temperature; however, changes in atmospheric circulation also appear important. We propose that this quasi-synchronous shift could represent the variably lagged biological response in each ecosystem to a large-scale, NH change of the climatic system, involving both an increase in NH temperature and a strongly positive phase of the Arctic Oscillation. Further investigation is needed to determine the relative roles of changes in temperature and atmospheric pressure patterns and their resultant teleconnections in synchronizing regime shifts at large scales.     

Contrasting energy pathways at the community level as a consequence of regime shifts

Ecological regime shifts typically result in abrupt changes in ecosystem structure through several trophic levels, which leads to rapid ecosystem reconfiguration between regimes. An interesting aspect of the impact of regime shift is that alternative regimes may induce distinct shifts in energy pathways; these have been less tested than structural changes. This paper addresses this by using stable isotopes to establish the energy pathways in fish communities. We specifically focus on the impact of regime shift on changes of the energy pathways, and how the magnitude and direction of these changes affect the local community. We found that energy pathways significantly varied among the planktivorous, benthivorous, and piscivorous trophic guilds as a result of the alternative regimes. The regime shift from a clear to a turbid state altered the food web towards planktonic energy pathways and truncated food chain length, which is indicative of less ecological efficiency. This was confirmed by the adaptive foraging strategies of prevalent omnivores in the current communities. These structural and functional characteristics of trophic interactions might not facilitate classic trophic cascading effects in such a turbid regime and suppress the system’s response to environmental changes, e.g., nutrient loading, and restoration efforts in turbid to clear water regime shifts.     

浅水湖泊生态系统稳态转换的阈值判定方法

浅水湖泊生态系统对人类干扰的反应会随着干扰力度的改变或增强而出现突然的变化,即发生稳态转换;对其机理和驱动机制的揭示将有助于对湖泊富营养化的控制及恢复.基于“多稳态”理论的稳态转换研究已广泛开展,但对浅水湖泊生态系统稳态转换的驱动机制结论各异,采用的阈值判定方法相差很大,主要有实验观测、模型模拟和统计分析3种.实验观测多关注少数特定指标,指标筛选过程复杂且工作量大;模型模拟虽能从较为全面的尺度上理解生态系统稳态变化的特征和主要机理过程,但在模型误差和不确定性的处理等问题上尚存在不足;统计分析方法基于对长时间序列数据的统计变化规律分析,用以判断或者预警稳态转换现象的发生,是目前最为常用的方法.目前稳态转换领域的研究大都是对已发生的稳态转换进行机制分析或过程反演,对未来预测与预警的问题仍然亟需加强.     

Human-induced Trophic Cascades and Ecological Regime Shifts in the Baltic Sea

Abstract The ecosystems of coastal and enclosed seas are under increasing anthropogenic pressure worldwide, with Chesapeake Bay, the Gulf of Mexico and the Black and Baltic Seas as well known examples. We use an ecosystem model (Ecopath with Ecosim, EwE) to show that reduced top-down control (seal predation) and increased bottom-up forcing (eutrophication) can largely explain the historical dynamics of the main fish stocks (cod, herring and sprat) in the Baltic Sea between 1900 and 1980. Based on these results and the historical fish stock development we identify two major ecological transitions. A shift from seal to cod domination was caused by a virtual elimination of marine mammals followed by a shift from an oligotrophic to a eutrophic state. A third shift from cod to clupeid domination in the late 1980s has previously been explained by overfishing of cod and climatic changes. We propose that the shift from an oligotrophic to a eutrophic state represents a true regime shift with a stabilizing mechanism for a hysteresis phenomenon. There are also mechanisms that could stabilize the shift from a cod to clupeid dominated ecosystem, but there are no indications that the ecosystem has been pushed that far yet. We argue that the shifts in the Baltic Sea are a consequence of human impacts, although variations in climate may have influenced their timing, magnitude and persistence. Electronic supplementary material The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Evidence for the existence of a robust pattern of prey selection in food webs

Food webs aim to provide a thorough representation of the trophic interactions found in an ecosystem. The complexity of empirical food webs, however, is leading many ecologists to focus dynamic ecosystem studies on smaller microcosm or mesocosm studies based upon community modules, which comprise three to five species and the interactions likely to have ecological relevance. We provide here a structural counterpart to community modules. We investigate food-web 'motifs' which are n-species connected subgraphs found within the food web. Remarkably, we find that the over- and under-representation of three-species motifs in empirical food webs can be understood through comparison to a static food-web model, the niche model. Our result conclusively demonstrates that predation upon species with some 'characteristic' niche value is the prey selection mechanism consistent with the structural properties of empirical food webs.     

Structural Degradation in Mediterranean Sea Food Webs: Testing Ecological Hypotheses Using Stochastic and Mass-Balance Modelling

Human-mediated disturbances such as fishing, habitat modification, and pollution have resulted in significant shifts in species composition and abundance in marine ecosystems which translate into degradation of food-web structure. Here, we used a comparative ecological modelling approach and data from two food webs (North-Central Adriatic and South Catalan Sea) and two time periods (mid-late 1970s and 1990s) in the Mediterranean Sea to evaluate how changes in species composition and biomass have affected food-web properties and the extent of ecosystem degradation. We assembled species lists and ecological information for both regions and time periods into stochastic structural and mass-balance food-web models, and compared the outcomes of 22 food-web properties. Our results show strong similarities in structural food-web properties between the North-Central Adriatic and South Catalan Seas indicating similar ecosystem structure and levels of ecological degradation between regions and time periods. In contrast, a comparison with other published marine food webs (Caribbean, Benguela, and US continental shelf) suggested that Mediterranean webs are in an advanced state of ecological degradation. This was reflected by lower trophic height, linkage density, connectance, omnivory, species involved in looping, trophic chain length and fraction of biomass at higher trophic levels, as well as higher generality and fraction of biomass at lower trophic levels. An analysis of robustness to simulated species extinction revealed lower robustness to species removals in Mediterranean webs and corroborated their advanced state of degradation. Importantly, the two modelling approaches used delivered comparable results suggesting that they both capture fundamental information about how food webs are structured. Electronic supplementary material  The online version of this article (doi:) contains supplementary material, which is available to authorized users.     

Leading indicators of trophic cascades

Regime shifts are large, long-lasting changes in ecosystems. They are often hard to predict but may have leading indicators which are detectable in advance. Potential leading indicators include wider swings in dynamics of key ecosystem variables, slower return rates after perturbation and shift of variance towards lower frequencies. We evaluated these indicators using a food web model calibrated to long-term whole-lake experiments. We investigated whether impending regime shifts driven by gradual increase in exploitation of the top predator can create signals that cascade through food webs and be discerned in phytoplankton. Substantial changes in standard deviations, return rates and spectra occurred near the switch point, even two trophic levels removed from the regime shift in fishes. Signals of regime shift can be detected well in advance, if the driver of the regime shift changes much more slowly than the dynamics of key ecosystem variables which can be sampled frequently enough to measure the indicators. However, the regime shift may occur long after the driver has passed the critical point, because of very slow transient dynamics near the critical point. Thus, the ecosystem can be poised for regime shift by the time the signal is discernible. Field tests are needed to evaluate these indicators.     

How Regime Shifts in Connected Aquatic Ecosystems Are Affected by the Typical Downstream Increase of Water Flow

All over the world freshwater ecosystems like ponds, ditches and lakes suffer from nutrient-driven regime shifts from submerged plants to dominance by algae or free-floating plants. Although freshwaters are often connected and part of a network, most of our current knowledge on regime shifts comes from studies of isolated ecosystems. The few studies that have assessed the spatial manifestation of regime shifts overlooked the hydrological fact that the water flow through connected waters typically increases in the downstream direction. Here, we use a complex ecosystem model to show that this increase in flow does not lead to spatial differences in ecosystem state. We support these findings with a simple, analytically tractable, nutrient retention model on connected waterbodies. The model shows that all bodies have the same nutrient concentration despite spatial gradients in the flow of water as well as nutrients carried by the water. As a consequence, each connected waterbody is equally vulnerable to a regime shift, implying a regime shift to be system-wide. Furthermore, it appeared that each connected waterbody behaves the same as an isolated waterbody, implying that the vast body of theory on isolated systems, like alternative stable states theory, can still be useful for connected systems. Although these findings are violated when there is heterogeneity in lateral runoff or waterbody characteristics—leading to spatial differences in ecosystem state and therefore to differences in the vulnerability to a regime shift—they show that the typical downstream build-up of water flow does not necessarily lead to differences in ecological state, and thereby provide a basic concept to better understand the ecology of connected freshwaters.     

Predicting the outcome of trophic manipulation in lakes—a comment on Harris (1994)

1. Harris ( Freshwater Biology , 32 , 143–160, 1994) asserts that while empirical modelling of lake ecosystem properties has yielded general predictions and useful explanations, research into the effects of food-web interactions has not. I provide an explicit example of a useful, quantitative prediction gleaned from experiments on food-web effects—the relationship between total phosphorus and the magnitude of response of algal biomass.
2. I further argue that Harris errs in asserting that food-web effects will be ineffective in eutrophic lakes. This error stems from a misconception about the relevance of ecosystem behaviour in unmanipulated systems for predictions of how an ecosystem will respond to manipulation. I cite empirical evidence demonstrating that, contrary to Harris's contention, the response of algal biomass to a change in food-web structure increases as lakes are enriched.     

Conditional Heteroskedasticity Forecasts Regime Shift in a Whole-Ecosystem Experiment

Regime shifts in stochastic ecosystem models are often preceded by early warning signals such as increased variance and increased autocorrelation in time series. There is considerable theoretical support for early warning signals, but there is a critical lack of field observations to test the efficacy of early warning signals at spatial and temporal scales relevant for ecosystem management. Conditional heteroskedasticity is persistent periods of high and low variance that may be a powerful leading indicator of regime shift. We evaluated conditional heteroskedasticity as an early warning indicator by applying moving window conditional heteroskedasticity tests to time series of chlorophyll-a and fish catches derived from a whole-lake experiment designed to create a regime shift. There was significant conditional heteroskedasticity at least a year prior to the regime shift in the manipulated lake but there was no significant conditional heteroskedasticity in an adjacent reference lake. Conditional heteroskedasticity was an effective leading indicator of regime shift for the ecosystem manipulation.     

Proximate structural mechanisms for variation in food-chain length

Food-chain length is a central characteristic of ecological communities because of its strong influence on community structure and ecosystem function. While recent studies have started to better clarify the relationship between food-chain length and environmental gradients such as resource availability and ecosystem size, much less progress has been made in isolating the ultimate and proximate mechanisms that determine food-chain length. Progress has been slow, in part, because research has paid little attention to the proximate changes in food web structure that must link variation in food-chain length to the ultimate dynamic mechanism. Here we outline the structural mechanisms that determine variation in food-chain length. We explore the implications of these mechanisms for understanding how changes in food-web structure influence food-chain length using both an intraguild predation community model and data from natural ecosystems. The resulting framework provides the mechanisms for linking ultimate dynamic mechanisms to variation in food-chain length. It also suggests that simple linear food-chain models may make misleading predictions about patterns of variation in food-chain length because they are unable to incorporate important structural mechanisms that alter food-web dynamics and cause non-linear shifts in food-web structure. Intraguild predation models provide a more appropriate theoretical framework for understanding food-chain length in most natural ecosystems because they accommodate all of the proximate structural mechanisms identified here.     

A new approach for rapid detection of nearby thresholds in ecosystem time series

Massive changes to ecosystems sometimes cross thresholds from which recovery can be difficult, expensive and slow. These thresholds are usually discovered in post hoc analyses long after the event occurred. Anticipating these changes prior to their occurrence could give managers a chance to intervene. Here we present a novel approach for anticipating ecosystem thresholds that combines resilience indicators with Quickest detection of change points. Unlike existing methods, the Quickest detection method is updated every time a data point arrives, and minimizes the time to detect an approaching threshold given the users’ tolerance for false alarms. The procedure accurately detected an impending regime shift in an experimentally manipulated ecosystem. An ecosystem model was used to determine if the method can detect an approaching threshold soon enough to prevent a regime shift. When the monitored variable was directly involved in the interaction that caused the regime shift, detection was quick enough to avert collapse. When the monitored variable was only indirectly linked to the critical transition, detection came too late. The procedure is useful for assessing changes in resilience as ecosystems approach thresholds. However some thresholds cannot be detected in time to prevent regime shifts, and surprises will be inevitable in ecosystem management.     

生态系统稳态转换检测研究进展

在气候变化、人类活动等影响下,生态系统结构和功能可能发生大规模的突变,导致生态系统从一个相对稳定的状态进入另一个稳定状态,这种现象称为稳态转换。由于生态系统的复杂性,准确刻画生态系统多稳态并界定其临界点尚存在挑战,提升对生态系统稳态转换的检测和预测能力依旧是生态学领域研究的热点和难题。基于多稳态理论和稳态转换经典概念框架,阐释了稳态转换检测的理论基础;归纳总结出四种稳态转换检测方法的原理和优劣势;鉴于稳态转换的尺度依赖性,梳理了单一生态系统、区域综合生态系统和全球生态系统不同尺度下的稳态转换检测方法、研究思路和应用案例。基于研究进展和问题现状,提出在未来研究中,亟待发展适应复杂系统的综合检测方法;创新稳态转换多尺度分析的技术方法体系;深化生态系统稳态转换驱动机制研究,构建多元耦合机理模型;进而深化稳态转换检测结果链接生态系统管理的实践研究;解析生态系统服务和可持续发展机制。     

Predicting the outcome of trophic manipulation in lakes—a comment on Harris (1994)

1. Harris ( Freshwater Biology , 32 , 143–160, 1994) asserts that while empirical modelling of lake ecosystem properties has yielded general predictions and useful explanations, research into the effects of food-web interactions has not. I provide an explicit example of a useful, quantitative prediction gleaned from experiments on food-web effects—the relationship between total phosphorus and the magnitude of response of algal biomass.
2. I further argue that Harris errs in asserting that food-web effects will be ineffective in eutrophic lakes. This error stems from a misconception about the relevance of ecosystem behaviour in unmanipulated systems for predictions of how an ecosystem will respond to manipulation. I cite empirical evidence demonstrating that, contrary to Harris's contention, the response of algal biomass to a change in food-web structure increases as lakes are enriched.     

Modelling Southern Ocean ecosystems: krill, the food-web, and the impacts of harvesting

The ecosystem approach to fisheries recognises the interdependence between harvested species and other ecosystem components. It aims to account for the propagation of the effects of harvesting through the food-web. The formulation and evaluation of ecosystem-based management strategies requires reliable models of ecosystem dynamics to predict these effects. The krill-based system in the Southern Ocean was the focus of some of the earliest models exploring such effects. It is also a suitable example for the development of models to support the ecosystem approach to fisheries because it has a relatively simple food-web structure and progress has been made in developing models of the key species and interactions, some of which has been motivated by the need to develop ecosystem-based management. Antarctic krill, Euphausia superba, is the main target species for the fishery and the main prey of many top predators. It is therefore critical to capture the processes affecting the dynamics and distribution of krill in ecosystem dynamics models. These processes include environmental influences on recruitment and the spatially variable influence of advection. Models must also capture the interactions between krill and its consumers, which are mediated by the spatial structure of the environment. Various models have explored predator-prey population dynamics with simplistic representations of these interactions, while others have focused on specific details of the interactions. There is now a pressing need to develop plausible and practical models of ecosystem dynamics that link processes occurring at these different scales. Many studies have highlighted uncertainties in our understanding of the system, which indicates future priorities in terms of both data collection and developing methods to evaluate the effects of these uncertainties on model predictions. We propose a modelling approach that focuses on harvested species and their monitored consumers and that evaluates model uncertainty by using alternative structures and functional forms in a Monte Carlo framework.     

沉积物记录揭示的深圳湾红树林生态系统稳态转变

稳态转换作为滨海生态系统的一种灾变现象,其过程伴随着生态系统质量下降和功能退化。深圳湾位于粤港澳大湾区的核心区域,深入理解其生态系统演化过程是进行适应性管理的重要前提。2014年于深圳湾福田红树林湿地获得4根岩芯沉积柱,通过分析沉积和生物地球化学指标（包括金属元素、营养盐、粒度和有机质指标）,重建半个世纪以来深圳湾环境的历史变迁,揭示其生态系统发生的稳态转变过程。结果表明：稳态转换发生前（1954-1980）,福田红树林沉积物中重金属、无机营养和有机物含量稳定增加,但处于较低水平;稳态转换发生后（1990-2014）,深圳湾中污染输入增加,沉积物中重金属和营养盐含量发生明显变化,深圳湾生态系统质量持续下降。通过揭示深圳湾生态系统演变过程及其稳态转变的发生规律,为粤港澳大湾区生态系统修复和管理提供重要的理论依据和参考。     

The use of nutrient reduction and food-web management to improve water quality in the deep stratifying Wupper Reservoir, Germany

Only a combination of nutrient load abatement and food-web management proved efficient for the management of water quality in the deep stratifying Wupper Reservoir. Reduction of nutrient loading, was completed in winter 1992/1993, but resulted only in reduced winter/spring mixing of phosphorus concentrations. Since the capacity of the diatom spring bloom to remove nutrients from the trophogenic layer of this slightly eutrophic water-body was never exhausted, the surplus of total phosphorus available to support summer algal growth remained unchanged. Thus, nutrient reduction alone did not improve the water quality, as expected. Subsequent replacement of the smaller Daphnia cucullata by the larger Daphnia galeata-hyalina complex that was attributable to successful food-web management did, however, result in a shift from a turbid to a clear water regime in 1999. Clearly, the zooplankton community, and therefore food-web structure, played an integral role in nutrient recycling and in the repartitioning of the phosphorus pool. As diatom settling and grazing became much more tightly linked with the appearance of the larger-bodied Daphnia galeata-hyalina complex, which exploits lower-level food resources as early as May, daphnids increasingly acted as a sink for phosphorus. This increased export fluxes out of the pelagic zone and leaves a smaller surplus of total phosphorus to support the accumulation of summer algae. Consequently, water transparency and total chlorophyll concentrations in summer improved with food-web restructuring, indicating real oligotrophication of Wupper Reservoir driven by internal feedbacks. Handling editor: S. I. Dodson