Psychological and Physical Co-Morbidity among Urban South African Women

Objectives

There is substantial evidence for the links between poverty and both physical and mental health; but limited research on the relationship of physical and mental health problems exists in low- and middle-income countries. The objective of this paper is to evaluate the prevalence and co-morbidity of psychological distress among women with common physical diseases in a socio-economically disadvantaged urban area of South Africa.

Methods

Women enrolled in the Birth to twenty (Bt20) cohort study were evaluated for this paper. Bt20 was founded in 1990 and has followed more than 3,000 children and their caregivers since birth; this study evaluates the health of the caregivers (average age 44) of these children. Psychological distress was evaluated by administering the General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-28) and we evaluated the presence of physical disease by self-report.

Results

Forty percent of the sample presented with psychological distress using the GHQ scoring method. More than half of the women who reported a history of a physical disease, including diabetes, heart attack, asthma, arthritis, osteoporosis, epilepsy, and tuberculosis, reported psychological disorder. Presence of one physical disease was not associated with increased rates of psychological distress. However, women who reported two diseases had increased rates of psychological symptoms, and this upward trend continued with each additional physical disease reported (measured to five).

Conclusions

These data indicate high prevalence rates of co-morbid psychological distress among women with physical disease. This argues for the need of greater mental health support for women living with physical diseases.     

A Stochastic Multi-Scale Model of HIV-1 Transmission for Decision-Making: Application to a MSM Population

Background

In the absence of an effective vaccine against HIV-1, the scientific community is presented with the challenge of developing alternative methods to curb its spread. Due to the complexity of the disease, however, our ability to predict the impact of various prevention and treatment strategies is limited. While ART has been widely accepted as the gold standard of modern care, its timing is debated.

Objectives

To evaluate the impact of medical interventions at the level of individuals on the spread of infection across the whole population. Specifically, we investigate the impact of ART initiation timing on HIV-1 spread in an MSM (Men who have Sex with Men) population.

Design and Methods

A stochastic multi-scale model of HIV-1 transmission that integrates within a single framework the in-host cellular dynamics and their outcomes, patient health states, and sexual contact networks. The model captures disease state and progression within individuals, and allows for simulation of therapeutic strategies.

Results

Early ART initiation may substantially affect disease spread through a population.

Conclusions

Our model provides a multi-scale, systems-based approach to evaluate the broader implications of therapeutic strategies.     

Trypanosoma vivax GM6 Antigen: A Candidate Antigen for Diagnosis of African Animal Trypanosomosis in Cattle

Background

Diagnosis of African animal trypanosomosis is vital to controlling this severe disease which hampers development across 10 million km² of Africa endemic to tsetse flies. Diagnosis at the point of treatment is currently dependent on parasite detection which is unreliable, and on clinical signs, which are common to several other prevalent bovine diseases.

Methodology/Principle Findings

the repeat sequence of the GM6 antigen of Trypanosoma vivax (TvGM6), a flagellar-associated protein, was analysed from several isolates of T. vivax and found to be almost identical despite the fact that T. vivax is known to have high genetic variation. The TvGM6 repeat was recombinantly expressed in E. coli and purified. An indirect ELISA for bovine sera based on this antigen was developed. The TvGM6 indirect ELISA had a sensitivity of 91.4% (95% CI: 91.3 to 91.6) in the period following 10 days post experimental infection with T. vivax, which decreased ten-fold to 9.1% (95% CI: 7.3 to 10.9) one month post treatment. With field sera from cattle infected with T. vivax from two locations in East and West Africa, 91.5% (95% CI: 83.2 to 99.5) sensitivity and 91.3% (95% CI: 78.9 to 93.1) specificity was obtained for the TvGM6 ELISA using the whole trypanosome lysate ELISA as a reference. For heterologous T. congolense field infections, the TvGM6 ELISA had a sensitivity of 85.1% (95% CI: 76.8 to 94.4).

Conclusion/Significance

this study is the first to analyse the GM6 antigen of T. vivax and the first to test the GM6 antigen on a large collection of sera from experimentally and naturally infected cattle. This study demonstrates that the TvGM6 is an excellent candidate antigen for the development of a point-of-treatment test for diagnosis of T. vivax, and to a lesser extent T. congolense, African animal trypanosomosis in cattle.     

The Epidemiology and Geographic Distribution of Relapsing Fever Borreliosis in West and North Africa,with a Review of the Ornithodoros erraticus Complex (Acari: Ixodida)

Background

Relapsing fever is the most frequent bacterial disease in Africa. Four main vector / pathogen complexes are classically recognized, with the louse Pediculus humanus acting as vector for B. recurrentis and the soft ticks Ornithodoros sonrai, O. erraticus and O. moubata acting as vectors for Borrelia crocidurae, B. hispanica and B. duttonii, respectively. Our aim was to investigate the epidemiology of the disease in West, North and Central Africa.

Methods And Findings

From 2002 to 2012, we conducted field surveys in 17 African countries and in Spain. We investigated the occurrence of Ornithodoros ticks in rodent burrows in 282 study sites. We collected 1,629 small mammals that may act as reservoir for Borrelia infections. Using molecular methods we studied genetic diversity among Ornithodoros ticks and Borrelia infections in ticks and small mammals. Of 9,870 burrows investigated, 1,196 (12.1%) were inhabited by Ornithodoros ticks. In West Africa, the southern and eastern limits of the vectors and Borrelia infections in ticks and small mammals were 13°N and 01°E, respectively. Molecular studies revealed the occurrence of nine different Ornithodoros species, including five species new for science, with six of them harboring Borrelia infections. Only B. crocidurae was found in West Africa and three Borrelia species were identified in North Africa: B. crocidurae, B. hispanica, and B. merionesi.

Conclusions

Borrelia Spirochetes responsible for relapsing fever in humans are highly prevalent both in Ornithodoros ticks and small mammals in North and West Africa but Ornithodoros ticks seem absent south of 13°N and small mammals are not infected in these regions. The number of Ornithodoros species acting as vector of relapsing fever is much higher than previously known.     

A Modeling Framework to Describe the Transmission of Bluetongue Virus within and between Farms in Great Britain

Background

Recently much attention has been given to developing national-scale micro-simulation models for livestock diseases that can be used to predict spread and assess the impact of control measures. The focus of these models has been on directly transmitted infections with little attention given to vector-borne diseases such as bluetongue, a viral disease of ruminants transmitted by Culicoides biting midges. Yet BT has emerged over the past decade as one of the most important diseases of livestock.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We developed a stochastic, spatially-explicit, farm-level model to describe the spread of bluetongue virus (BTV) within and between farms. Transmission between farms was modeled by a generic kernel, which includes both animal and vector movements. Once a farm acquired infection, the within-farm dynamics were simulated based on the number of cattle and sheep kept on the farm and on local temperatures. Parameter estimates were derived from the published literature and using data from the outbreak of bluetongue in northern Europe in 2006. The model was validated using data on the spread of BTV in Great Britain during 2007. The sensitivity of model predictions to the shape of the transmission kernel was assessed.

Conclusions/Significance

The model is able to replicate the dynamics of BTV in Great Britain. Although uncertainty remains over the precise shape of the transmission kernel and certain aspects of the vector, the modeling approach we develop constitutes an ideal framework in which to incorporate these aspects as more and better data become available. Moreover, the model provides a tool with which to examine scenarios for the spread and control of BTV in Great Britain.     

Population Seroprevalence Study after a West Nile Virus Lineage 2 Epidemic,Greece, 2010

Introduction

During summer 2010, 262 human cases including 35 deaths from West Nile virus (WNV) infection were reported from Central Macedonia, Greece. Evidence from mosquitoes, birds and blood donors demonstrated that the epidemic was caused by WNV lineage 2, which until recently was considered of low virulence. We conducted a household seroprevalence study to estimate the spread of infection in the population during the epidemic, ascertain the relationship of infection to clinical disease, and identify risk factors for infection.

Methods

We used a two-stage cluster design to select a random sample of residents aged ≥18 years in the outbreak epicentre. We collected demographic, medical, and risk factor data using standard questionnaires and environmental checklists, and tested serum samples for presence of WNV IgG and IgM antibodies using ELISA.

Results

Overall, 723 individuals participated in the study, and 644 blood samples were available. Weighted seropositivity for IgG antibodies was 5.8% (95% CI: 3.8–8.6; n=41). We estimated that about 1 in 130 (1:141 to 1:124) infected individuals developed WNV neuroinvasive disease, and approximately 18% had clinical manifestations attributable to their infection. Risk factors for infection reflected high exposure to mosquitoes; rural residents were particularly at risk (prevalence ratio: 8.2, 95% CI: 1.1–58.7).

Discussion

This study adds to the evidence that WNV lineage 2 strains can cause significant illness, demonstrating ratios of infection to clinical disease similar to those found previously for WNV lineage 1.     

Knowledge of Bovine Tuberculosis,Cattle Husbandry and Dairy Practices amongst Pastoralists and Small-Scale Dairy Farmers in Cameroon

Background

Control of bovine tuberculosis (bTB) and zoonotic tuberculosis (zTB) has relied upon surveillance and slaughter of infected cattle, milk pasteurisation and public health education. In Cameroon, like many other sub-Saharan African countries, there is limited understanding of current cattle husbandry or milk processing practices or livestock keepers awareness of bTB. This paper describes husbandry and milk processing practices within different Cameroonian cattle keeping communities and bTB awareness in comparison to other infectious diseases.

Study design

A population based cross-sectional sample of herdsmen and a questionnaire were used to gather data from pastoralists and dairy farmers in the North West Region and Vina Division of Cameroon.

Results

Pastoralists were predominately male Fulanis who had kept cattle for over a decade. Dairy farmers were non-Fulani and nearly half were female. Pastoralists went on transhumance with their cattle and came into contact with other herds and potential wildlife reservoirs of bTB. Dairy farmers housed their cattle and had little contact with other herds or wildlife. Pastoralists were aware of bTB and other infectious diseases such as foot-and-mouth disease and fasciolosis. These pastoralists were also able to identify clinical signs of these diseases. A similar proportion of dairy farmers were aware of bTB but fewer were aware of foot-and-mouth and fasciolosis. In general, dairy farmers were unable to identify any clinical signs for any of these diseases. Importantly most pastoralists and dairy farmers were unaware that bTB could be transmitted to people by consuming milk.

Conclusions

Current cattle husbandry practices make the control of bTB in cattle challenging especially in mobile pastoralist herds. Routine test and slaughter control in dairy herds would be tractable but would have profound impact on dairy farmer livelihoods. Prevention of transmission in milk offers the best approach for human risk mitigation in Cameroon but requires strategies that improved risk awareness amongst producers and consumers.     

Impact of Schistosoma mansoni on Malaria Transmission in Sub-Saharan Africa

Background

Sub-Saharan Africa harbors the majority of the global burden of malaria and schistosomiasis infections. The co-endemicity of these two tropical diseases has prompted investigation into the mechanisms of coinfection, particularly the competing immunological responses associated with each disease. Epidemiological studies have shown that infection with Schistosoma mansoni is associated with a greater malaria incidence among school-age children.

Methodology

We developed a co-epidemic model of malaria and S. mansoni transmission dynamics which takes into account key epidemiological interaction between the two diseases in terms of elevated malaria incidence among individuals with S. mansoni high egg output. The model was parameterized for S. mansoni high-risk endemic communities, using epidemiological and clinical data of the interaction between S. mansoni and malaria among children in sub-Saharan Africa. We evaluated the potential impact of the S. mansoni–malaria interaction and mass treatment of schistosomiasis on malaria prevalence in co-endemic communities.

Principal Findings

Our results suggest that in the absence of mass drug administration of praziquantel, the interaction between S. mansoni and malaria may reduce the effectiveness of malaria treatment for curtailing malaria transmission, in S. mansoni high-risk endemic communities. However, when malaria treatment is used in combination with praziquantel, mass praziquantel administration may increase the effectiveness of malaria control intervention strategy for reducing malaria prevalence in malaria- S. mansoni co-endemic communities.

Conclusions/Significance

Schistosomiasis treatment and control programmes in regions where S. mansoni and malaria are highly prevalent may have indirect benefits on reducing malaria transmission as a result of disease interactions. In particular, mass praziquantel administration may not only have the direct benefit of reducing schistosomiasis infection, it may also reduce malaria transmission and disease burden.     

Measuring the Characteristic Topography of Brain Stiffness with Magnetic Resonance Elastography

Purpose

To develop a reliable magnetic resonance elastography (MRE)-based method for measuring regional brain stiffness.

Methods

First, simulation studies were used to demonstrate how stiffness measurements can be biased by changes in brain morphometry, such as those due to atrophy. Adaptive postprocessing methods were created that significantly reduce the spatial extent of edge artifacts and eliminate atrophy-related bias. Second, a pipeline for regional brain stiffness measurement was developed and evaluated for test-retest reliability in 10 healthy control subjects.

Results

This technique indicates high test-retest repeatability with a typical coefficient of variation of less than 1% for global brain stiffness and less than 2% for the lobes of the brain and the cerebellum. Furthermore, this study reveals that the brain possesses a characteristic topography of mechanical properties, and also that lobar stiffness measurements tend to correlate with one another within an individual.

Conclusion

The methods presented in this work are resistant to noise- and edge-related biases that are common in the field of brain MRE, demonstrate high test-retest reliability, and provide independent regional stiffness measurements. This pipeline will allow future investigations to measure changes to the brain’s mechanical properties and how they relate to the characteristic topographies that are typical of many neurologic diseases.     

The Prevalence of Disease Clusters in Older Adults with Multiple Chronic Diseases – A Systematic Literature Review

Background

Since most clinical guidelines address single diseases, treatment of patients with multimorbidity, the co-occurrence of multiple (chronic) diseases within one person, can become complicated. Information on highly prevalent combinations of diseases can set the agenda for guideline development on multimorbidity. With this systematic review we aim to describe the prevalence of disease combinations (i.e. disease clusters) in older patients with multimorbidity, as assessed in available studies. In addition, we intend to acquire information that can be supportive in the process of multimorbidity guideline development.

Methods

We searched MEDLINE, Embase and the Cochrane Library for all types of studies published between January 2000 and September 2012. We included empirical studies focused on multimorbidity or comorbidity that reported prevalence rates of combinations of two or more diseases.

Results

Our search yielded 3070 potentially eligible articles, of which 19 articles, representing 23 observational studies, turned out to meet all our quality and inclusion criteria after full text review. These studies provided prevalence rates of 165 combinations of two diseases (i.e. disease pairs). Twenty disease pairs, concerning 12 different diseases, were described in at least 3 studies. Depression was found to be the disease that was most commonly clustered, and was paired with 8 different diseases, in the available studies. Hypertension and diabetes mellitus were found to be the second most clustered diseases, both with 6 different diseases. Prevalence rates for each disease combination varied considerably per study, but were highest for the pairs that included hypertension, coronary artery disease, and diabetes mellitus.

Conclusions

Twenty disease pairs were assessed most frequently in patients with multimorbidity. These disease combinations could serve as a first priority setting towards the development of multimorbidity guidelines, starting with the diseases with the highest observed prevalence rates and those with potential interacting treatment plans.     

Ex-Ante Economic Impact Assessment of Genetically Modified Banana Resistant to Xanthomonas Wilt in the Great Lakes Region of Africa

Background

Credible empirical evidence is scanty on the social implications of genetically modified (GM) crops in Africa, especially on vegetatively propagated crops. Little is known about the future success of introducing GM technologies into staple crops such as bananas, which are widely produced and consumed in the Great Lakes Region of Africa (GLA). GM banana has a potential to control the destructive banana Xanthomonas wilt disease.

Objective

To gain a better understanding of future adoption and consumption of GM banana in the GLA countries which are yet to permit the production of GM crops; specifically, to evaluate the potential economic impacts of GM cultivars resistant to banana Xanthomonas wilt disease.

Data Sources

The paper uses data collected from farmers, traders, agricultural extension agents and key informants in the GLA.

Analysis

We analyze the perceptions of the respondents about the adoption and consumption of GM crop. Economic surplus model is used to determine future economic benefits and costs of producing GM banana.

Results

On the release of GM banana for commercialization, the expected initial adoption rate ranges from 21 to 70%, while the ceiling adoption rate is up to 100%. Investment in the development of GM banana is economically viable. However, aggregate benefits vary substantially across the target countries ranging from US$ 20 million to 953 million, highest in countries where disease incidence and production losses are high, ranging from 51 to 83% of production.

Conclusion

The findings support investment in the development of GM banana resistant to Xanthomonas wilt disease. The main beneficiaries of this technology development are farmers and consumers, although the latter benefit more than the former from reduced prices. Designing a participatory breeding program involving farmers and consumers signifies the successful adoption and consumption of GM banana in the target countries.     

Conceptualizing Community Mobilization for HIV Prevention: Implications for HIV Prevention Programming in the African Context

Introduction

Community mobilizing strategies are essential to health promotion and uptake of HIV prevention. However, there has been little conceptual work conducted to establish the core components of community mobilization, which are needed to guide HIV prevention programming and evaluation.

Objectives

We aimed to identify the key domains of community mobilization (CM) essential to change health outcomes or behaviors, and to determine whether these hypothesized CM domains were relevant to a rural South African setting.

Method

We studied social movements and community capacity, empowerment and development literatures, assessing common elements needed to operationalize HIV programs at a community level. After synthesizing these elements into six essential CM domains, we explored the salience of these CM domains qualitatively, through analysis of 10 key informant in-depth-interviews and seven focus groups in three villages in Bushbuckridge.

Results

CM domains include: 1) shared concerns, 2) critical consciousness, 3) organizational structures/networks, 4) leadership (individual and/or institutional), 5) collective activities/actions, and 6) social cohesion. Qualitative data indicated that the proposed domains tapped into theoretically consistent constructs comprising aspects of CM processes. Some domains, extracted from largely Western theory, required little adaptation for the South African context; others translated less effortlessly. For example, critical consciousness to collectively question and resolve community challenges functioned as expected. However, organizations/networks, while essential, operated differently than originally hypothesized - not through formal organizations, but through diffuse family networks.

Conclusions

To date, few community mobilizing efforts in HIV prevention have clearly defined the meaning and domains of CM prior to intervention design. We distilled six CM domains from the literature; all were pertinent to mobilization in rural South Africa. While some adaptation of specific domains is required, they provide an extremely valuable organizational tool to guide CM programming and evaluation of critically needed mobilizing initiatives in Southern Africa.     

Alterations of Plasma Lysophosphatidylcholine Species in Obesity and Weight Loss

Background

Obesity and related diseases of the metabolic syndrome contribute to the major health problems in industrialized countries. Alterations in the metabolism of lipid classes and lipid species may significantly be involved in these metabolic overload diseases. However, little is known about specific lipid species in this syndrome and existing data are contradictive.

Methods

In this study, we quantified plasma lipid species by electrospray ionization tandem mass spectrometry (ESI-MS/MS) in obese subjects before and after 3 month weight loss as well as in a control group.

Results

The comparison of obese subjects with control subjects before weight loss revealed significantly lower lysophosphatidylcholine (LPC) concentrations in obesity. LPC concentrations did not significantly increase during the observed period in the weight loss group. Analysis of LPC species revealed a decrease of most species in obesity and negative correlations with C-reactive protein (CRP) and body mass index (BMI). Correlating BMI ratio before and after weight loss with the ratio of total LPC and individual LPC species revealed significant negative relationships of LPC ratios with BMI ratio.

Conclusions

Our findings contribute to the contradictive discussion of the role of LPC in obesity and related chronic inflammation strongly supporting pre-existing data in the literature that show a decrease of LPC species in plasma of obese and a potentially anti-inflammatory role in these subjects.     

Microarray Gene Expression Analysis of Tumorigenesis and Regional Lymph Node Metastasis in Laryngeal Squamous Cell Carcinoma

Background

Laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma (LSCC) is the most common type in head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC), and the development and progression of LSCC are multistep processes accompanied by changes of molecular biology.

Objective

The purpose of this study was to investigate the molecular basis of tumorigenesis and regional lymph node metastasis in LSCC, and provide a set of genes that may be useful for the development of novel diagnostic markers and/or more effective therapeutic strategies.

Methods

A total number of 10 patients who underwent surgery for primary laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma were recruited for microarray analysis. LSCC tissues compared with corresponding adjacent non-neoplastic tissues were analysed by Illumina mRNA microarrays, and LSCC tissues with regional lymph node metastasis and LSCC tissues without regional lymph node metastasis were analyzed in the same manner. The most frequently differently expressed genes screened by microarrays were also validated by qRT-PCR in another 42 patients diagnosed for LSCC.

Results

Analysed by Illumina mRNA microarrays, there were 361 genes significantly related to tumorigenesis while 246 genes significantly related to regional lymph node metastasis in LSCC. We found that the six genes (CDK1, CDK2, CDK4, MCM2, MCM3, MCM4) were most frequently differently expressed functional genes related to tumorigenesis while eIF3a and RPN2 were most frequently differently expressed functional genes related to regional lymph node metastasis in LSCC. The expressions of these genes were also validated by qRT-PCR.

Conclusions

The research revealed a gene expression signature of tumorigenesis and regional lymph node metastasis in laryngeal squamous cell carcinoma. Of the total, the deregulation of several genes (CDK1, CDK2, CDK4, MCM2, MCM3, MCM4, EIF3a and RPN2) were potentially associated with disease development and progression. The result will contribute to the understanding of the molecular basis of LSCC and help to improve diagnosis and treatment.     

Climate drives the meningitis epidemics onset in west Africa

Background

Every year West African countries within the Sahelo-Sudanian band are afflicted with major meningococcal meningitis (MCM) disease outbreaks, which affect up to 200,000 people, mainly young children, in one of the world''s poorest regions. The timing of the epidemic year, which starts in February and ends in late May, and the spatial distribution of disease cases throughout the “Meningitis Belt” strongly indicate a close linkage between the life cycle of the causative agent of MCM and climate variability. However, mechanisms responsible for the observed patterns are still not clearly identified.

Methods and Findings

By comparing the information on cases and deaths of MCM from World Health Organization weekly reports with atmospheric datasets, we quantified the relationship between the seasonal occurrence of MCM in Mali, a West African country, and large-scale atmospheric circulation. Regional atmospheric indexes based on surface wind speed show a clear link between population dynamics of the disease and climate: the onset of epidemics and the winter maximum defined by the atmospheric index share the same mean week (sixth week of the year; standard deviation, 2 wk) and are highly correlated.

Conclusions

This study is the first that provides a clear, quantitative demonstration of the connections that exist between MCM epidemics and regional climate variability in Africa. Moreover, this statistically robust explanation of the MCM dynamics enables the development of an Early Warning Index for meningitis epidemic onset in West Africa. The development of such an index will undoubtedly help nationwide and international public health institutions and policy makers to better control MCM disease within the so-called westward–eastward pan-African Meningitis Belt.     

Medication Monitoring in a Nurse-Led Respiratory Outpatient Clinic: Pragmatic Randomised Trial of the West Wales Adverse Drug Reaction Profile

Objective

To assess the clinical effect of medication monitoring using the West Wales Adverse Drug Reaction (ADR) Profile for Respiratory Medicine.

Design

Single-site parallel-arm pragmatic trial using stratified randomisation.

Setting

Nurse-led respiratory outpatient clinic in general hospital in South Wales.

Participants

54 patients with chronic respiratory disease receiving bronchodilators, corticosteroids or leukotriene receptor antagonists.

Intervention

Following initial observation of usual nursing care, we allocated participants at random to receive at follow up: either the West Wales ADR Profile for Respiratory Medicine in addition to usual care (‘intervention arm’ with 26 participants); or usual care alone (‘control arm’ with 28 participants).

Main Outcome Measures

Problems reported and actions taken.

Results

We followed up all randomised participants, and analysed data in accordance with treatment allocated. The increase in numbers of problems per participant identified at follow up was significantly higher in the intervention arm, where the median increase was 20.5 [inter-quartile range (IQR) 13–26], while that in the control arm was −1 [−3 to +2] [Mann-Whitney U test: z = 6.28, p<0.001]. The increase in numbers of actions per participant taken at follow up was also significantly higher in the intervention arm, where the median increase was 2.5 [1]–[4] while that in the control arm was 0 [−1.75 to +1] [Mann-Whitney U test: z = 4.40, p<0.001].

Conclusion

When added to usual nursing care, the West Wales ADR Profile identified more problems and prompted more nursing actions. Our ADR Profile warrants further investigation as a strategy to optimise medication management.

Trial Registration

Controlled-trials.com ISRCTN10386209     

Predictive Power of Air Travel and Socio-Economic Data for Early Pandemic Spread

Background

Controlling the pandemic spread of newly emerging diseases requires rapid, targeted allocation of limited resources among nations. Critical, early control steps would be greatly enhanced if the key risk factors can be identified that accurately predict early disease spread immediately after emergence.

Methodology/Principal Findings

Here, we examine the role of travel, trade, and national healthcare resources in predicting the emergence and initial spread of 2009 A/H1N1 influenza. We find that incorporating national healthcare resource data into our analyses allowed a much greater capacity to predict the international spread of this virus. In countries with lower healthcare resources, the reporting of 2009 A/H1N1 cases was significantly delayed, likely reflecting a lower capacity for testing and reporting, as well as other socio-political issues. We also report substantial international trade in live swine and poultry in the decade preceding the pandemic which may have contributed to the emergence and mixed genotype of this pandemic strain. However, the lack of knowledge of recent evolution of each H1N1 viral gene segment precludes the use of this approach to determine viral origins.

Conclusions/Significance

We conclude that strategies to prevent pandemic influenza virus emergence and spread in the future should include: 1) enhanced surveillance for strains resulting from reassortment in traded livestock; 2) rapid deployment of control measures in the initial spreading phase to countries where travel data predict the pathogen will reach and to countries where lower healthcare resources will likely cause delays in reporting. Our results highlight the benefits, for all parties, when higher income countries provide additional healthcare resources for lower income countries, particularly those that have high air traffic volumes. In particular, international authorities should prioritize aid to those poorest countries where both the risk of emerging infectious diseases and air traffic volume is highest. This strategy will result in earlier detection of pathogens and a reduction in the impact of future pandemics.     

Optimal Triage Test Characteristics to Improve the Cost-Effectiveness of the Xpert MTB/RIF Assay for TB Diagnosis: A Decision Analysis

Background

High costs are a limitation to scaling up the Xpert MTB/RIF assay (Xpert) for the diagnosis of tuberculosis in resource-constrained settings. A triaging strategy in which a sensitive but not necessarily highly specific rapid test is used to select patients for Xpert may result in a more affordable diagnostic algorithm. To inform the selection and development of particular diagnostics as a triage test we explored combinations of sensitivity, specificity and cost at which a hypothetical triage test will improve affordability of the Xpert assay.

Methods

In a decision analytical model parameterized for Uganda, India and South Africa, we compared a diagnostic algorithm in which a cohort of patients with presumptive TB received Xpert to a triage algorithm whereby only those with a positive triage test were tested by Xpert.

Findings

A triage test with sensitivity equal to Xpert, 75% specificity, and costs of US$5 per patient tested reduced total diagnostic costs by 42% in the Uganda setting, and by 34% and 39% respectively in the India and South Africa settings. When exploring triage algorithms with lower sensitivity, the use of an example triage test with 95% sensitivity relative to Xpert, 75% specificity and test costs $5 resulted in similar cost reduction, and was cost-effective by the WHO willingness-to-pay threshold compared to Xpert for all in Uganda, but not in India and South Africa. The gain in affordability of the examined triage algorithms increased with decreasing prevalence of tuberculosis among the cohort.

Conclusions

A triage test strategy could potentially improve the affordability of Xpert for TB diagnosis, particularly in low-income countries and with enhanced case-finding. Tests and markers with lower accuracy than desired of a diagnostic test may fall within the ranges of sensitivity, specificity and cost required for triage tests and be developed as such.     

Accuracy of Individual Rapid Tests for Serodiagnosis of Gambiense Sleeping Sickness in West Africa

Background

Individual rapid tests for serodiagnosis (RDT) of human African trypanosomiasis (HAT) are particularly suited for passive screening and surveillance. However, so far, no large scale evaluation of RDTs has been performed for diagnosis of Trypanosoma brucei gambiense HAT in West Africa. The objective of this study was to assess the diagnostic accuracy of 2 commercial HAT-RDTs on stored plasma samples from West Africa.

Methodology/Principal findings

SD Bioline HAT and HAT Sero-K-Set were performed on 722 plasma samples originating from Guinea and Côte d’Ivoire, including 231 parasitologically confirmed HAT patients, 257 healthy controls, and 234 unconfirmed individuals whose blood tested antibody positive in the card agglutination test but negative by parasitological tests. Immune trypanolysis was performed as a reference test for trypanosome specific antibody presence. Sensitivities in HAT patients were respectively 99.6% for SD Bioline HAT, and 99.1% for HAT Sero-K-Set, specificities in healthy controls were respectively 87.9% and 88.3%. Considering combined positivity in both RDTs, increased the specificity significantly (p≤0.0003) to 93.4%, while 98.7% sensitivity was maintained. Specificities in controls were 98.7–99.6% for the combination of one or two RDTs with trypanolysis, maintaining a sensitivity of at least 98.1%.

Conclusions/Significance

The observed specificity of the single RDTs was relatively low. Serial application of SD Bioline HAT and HAT Sero-K-Set might offer superior specificity compared to a single RDT, maintaining high sensitivity. The combination of one or two RDTs with trypanolysis seems promising for HAT surveillance.