青海省门源县1980—2015年青稞物候期变化趋势及其驱动因素

利用1980—2015年青海省门源县农业气象站的青稞物候期及平行气温和降水资料,分析了气候变化背景下青海省门源县青稞物候期变化趋势及其驱动因素,结果表明:播种、出苗和拔节期呈推迟趋势,其余物候期均呈提前趋势。其中播种期以2.65d/10a的趋势显著推迟,分蘖期、抽穗期分别以4.78d/10a和2.30d/10a的趋势显著提前。显著影响青稞物候期的气候因子为气温、降水和积温。播种前0℃活动积温升高1℃·d,期间降水量增加1mm,播种期推迟0.252d;稳定通过0℃积温增加1℃·d,分蘖期提前0.026d;4月最低气温升高1℃,抽穗期提前1.890d。自20世纪90年代出现播种推迟、分蘖期和抽穗期提前、驱动因子升高突变现象。物候期与驱动因素开始突变基本同步,表明青海高原气候变暖是青稞物候期变化的主导因素。     

青海省门源县1980-2015年青稞物候期变化趋势及其驱动因素

利用1980-2015年青海省门源县农业气象站的青稞物候期及平行气温和降水资料,分析了气候变化背景下青海省门源县青稞物候期变化趋势及其驱动因素,结果表明：播种、出苗和拔节期呈推迟趋势,其余物候期均呈提前趋势。其中播种期以2.65d/10a的趋势显著推迟,分蘖期、抽穗期分别以4.78d/10a和2.30d/10a的趋势显著提前。显著影响青稞物候期的气候因子为气温、降水和积温。播种前0℃活动积温升高1℃·d,期间降水量增加1mm,播种期推迟0.252d;稳定通过0℃积温增加1℃·d,分蘖期提前0.026d;4月最低气温升高1℃,抽穗期提前1.890d。自20世纪90年代出现播种推迟、分蘖期和抽穗期提前、驱动因子升高突变现象。物候期与驱动因素开始突变基本同步,表明青海高原气候变暖是青稞物候期变化的主导因素。     

过去20年中国耕地生长季起始期的时空变化

多时相遥感数据能够较好地描述区域尺度的植被物候和生长季节的变化特征.利用NDVI时序数据,采用非对称性高斯函数拟合方法重建平滑曲线,分别提取了我国20世纪80年代初、90年代初和21世纪初等3个时期为我国耕地第一生长季起始期,计算3个时期平均生长起始期,并分析了我国耕地第一生长季起始期的区域空间分异规律;然后,从区域和省份两个尺度分析了20世纪80年代初至90年代初和20世纪90年代初至21世纪初两个阶段我国耕地生长季起始期动态变化趋势和空间格局.结果表明,我国不同区域耕地第一生长季起始期存在十分明显的空间差异,清楚地呈现出一个从南向北逐渐推迟的空间特征;从不同区域看,在20世纪80年代初至90年代初和20世纪90年代初至21世纪初两个时期,我国耕地第一生长季起始期变化都是提前和推迟并存,不同区域变化程度不一;从不同省份看,在过去20年间,我国绝大多数省份耕地第一生长季起始期都表现为总体提前的趋势,但不同省份的起始期变化具有差异性.影响我国耕地生长季起始期变化的因素很多,如何区别气候变化等自然因子和人类活动因子对耕地生长季起始期变化的影响是一个值得深入研究的问题.     

大连气候变暖及其对农业的影响

选取大连地区7个观测站1961—2007年历年月平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、≥0 ℃积温、≥10 ℃积温、<0 ℃负积温和无霜冻等指标,统计分析了近47年其变化特征,研究了大连地区热量资源对气候变暖的响应及其对农业生产的影响。结果表明: 月平均气温、最高气温、最低气温、≥0 ℃积温、≥10 ℃积温1988—2007年比1961—1987年的平均值明显增高(多),尤以最低气温增幅最大,冬季升温幅度大于夏季,大连地区气候变暖主要来自最低气温升高的贡献;<0 ℃负积温绝对值明显减少;初霜推后,终霜提前,无霜期日数增多;20世纪80年代后期大连气候明显变暖,尤其是21世纪初异常偏暖事件频发,热量资源增加,对冬季大棚蔬菜等设施农业的生产有利,病虫等越冬存活率上升,农业投入增加,气候变暖对大连地区农业影响是利弊并存。     

民勤荒漠区16种植物物候持续日数及其积温变化

中国西北荒漠区植物物候随气温变暖表现为提前趋势。本文以甘肃民勤荒漠区16种植物34年的物候观测资料,采用一次趋势线方程研究了荒漠区植物在物候提前的过程中,物候日数变化和物候期积温变化。结果表明,随着气温升高,物候持续日数表现出一定的增长趋势。物候持续期积温增加显著,而且春、秋两季是积温变化较敏感的季节。积温的增减在很大程度上是由物候持续日数增加或减少引起的,其次才是由于气温增高引起的。表明,随着气温的增高或降低,植物的物候持续日数并不能无限制地缩短或延长。     

六盘山东西两侧苹果物候期对气候变化的响应

利用六盘山东西两侧甘肃平凉市的崆峒、静宁站1971—2008年气温资料及1987—2008年在崆峒所设苹果观测点物候观测资料,分析了气候变化对苹果物候期的影响。结果表明:在全球气候变暖的背景下,甘肃平凉自1971年以来,气温呈现出明显的线性上升趋势,且以冬季和春季增温为主,气温稳定通过≥10℃的积温增加;受此影响,苹果叶芽开放、展叶、开花等成熟前的发育期提前14~18d,且六盘山东侧春季的苹果物候期提前的变化速率明显大于西侧;气候变暖增加了果树春季开花受冻的危险,通过苹果与霜冻灾害的相关分析,结果得到临界值:在4月11—20日、4月21—30日及5月1—10日苹果开花期,地面最低温度≤-2.0℃,且连续≥2d时,苹果受冻面积分别达到80%、90%和100%。     

近50年北京植被对全球变暖的响应及其时效--基于遥感数据和物候资料的分析

植被对全球变暖的响应方式及其程度问题是全球变化研究的焦点之一。利用1951～2000年的气温、降水等气候资料、1982～2000年的NOAA／AVHRR遥感数据和1951～2002年山桃始花的物候数据,分析了北京各气候参量与生态系统植被在年际和年内时间尺度上的变化规律及其关系。结果表明,北京近20年增温1．2E,增温态势显著;过去50年中,降水的年际变化小于生长季内的波动幅度。年NDVI最大值(VP)、平均值(VM)的年际变化曲线呈波动中缓慢上升的趋势,表明植被的生长状况总体上在变好或生长季在延长。VP出现日期(VPI))提前,20世纪90年代比80年代提前4．5d。山桃始花物候期的分析表明,北京1988年以后春季开始日期提前9．63d。时间尺度不同,各个气候指标对各植被指标的影响程度不同：①年际时间尺度,年均温影响VP、VM的时效为1年;月际水平上,除温度影响VM的时效为2个月外,各气候参量影响VP、VM的时效为1个月。年际尺度上,温度影响山桃始花时效为2年;月际尺度上,2、3、4月份温度影响山桃始花日期。     

湖北神农架巴山冷杉径向生长对气候的响应

利用湖北神农架巴山冷杉树轮宽度标准年表,研究其径向生长对气候要素(月平均气温和月降水量)和生长期其他参数(活动积温、持续天数、初日和终日)的响应.结果表明:神农架地区巴山冷杉径向生长与当年2、4和9月平均气温呈显著正相关,与上年和当年9月降水量呈显著负相关,与上年12月降水量呈显著负相关.巴山冷杉径向生长与生长期活动积温和持续天数呈正相关,且与以9.0℃为阈值定义的活动积温和持续天数的相关最高.其生长期从5月下旬开始,到9月中旬结束,大约120 d.树轮宽度标准年表与以9.0和9.3℃定义的生长期初日和终日序列相关最高,相关系数分别为-0.25(接近0.05显著性水平)和0.33(P<0.05),所以9.0℃是其进行光合作用的敏感温度.生长期开始得早或结束得晚,即生长期延长,均有利于巴山冷杉的生长.与我国气候突变年(1978年)前相比,1978年以后神农架地区气温开始上升,生长期活动积温和持续天数开始增加,生长期初日提前,终日延迟,使得生长期延长,进而促进了巴山冷杉的径向生长.     

气候暖干化对甘肃省谷子产量的影响及对策

基于甘肃省甘州（河西温和干旱绿洲灌溉区）、安定（陇中温和半干旱旱作区）、西峰（陇东温和半湿润旱作区）气温、降水和谷子产量资料,计算出各区域谷子生育期内≥0 ℃、≥5 ℃、≥10 ℃、≥15 ℃、≥20 ℃活动积温以及生育关键期平均气温和降水量,用正交多项式拟合分离出谷子气候产量,并采用线性倾向、累积距平、Mann-Kendall法分析研究区气候和谷子气候产量的变化特征,以及气候变化对谷子产量的影响.结果表明：气候暖干化是甘肃各区域现代气候变化的主要特征,各地气温从20世纪90年代初开始呈显著上升趋势,降水从20世纪80年代后期开始显著减少;该区谷子产量与温度、降水量呈显著相关关系,旱作区谷子产量随生育关键期内气温增高、降水量增多而提高,河西走廊绿洲灌区谷子产量随气温增高而提高;气候暖干化严重影响谷子产量,西峰、安定、甘州谷子产量的气象波动指数分别占实际产量变异系数的73%、72%和54%,变暖后（1993-2008年）较变暖前（1985-1992年）所占百分率明显增大;气候变暖有利于谷子产量增加,与气候变暖前相比,气候变暖后西峰、安定、甘州谷子年均气候产量的增加量分别为30.6、43.1和121.1 kg·hm^-2.针对甘肃省未来气候继续暖干化的趋势,应进一步扩大谷子种植面积、调整谷子种植结构,同时,要根据不同气候类型区域、不同气候年型选种不同特性的品种,采取不同的种植措施.     

全球气候变化背景下华北平原气候资源变化趋势

在全球气候变化的大背景下,过去几十年,华北平原气候资源也发生了相应的变化,这一变化对该区域的粮食生产将产生深刻的影响。利用华北平原1961-2007年逐日气候资料,探讨了不同年代际间该区域气候资源的空间分布特征。研究结果表明:气候变暖使华北平原热量资源更加丰富,全区≥0℃和≥10℃积温呈整体增加趋势,空间分布呈北移东扩的变化特征;且气候带移动特征明显,向北移动了3个纬度,约300多km。过去47a,华北区域年降水量呈下降趋势,平均下降速率为18mm/10a。夏、秋两季降水量呈减少趋势,速率在25-40mm/10a之间;春、冬两季降水量呈微弱增加趋势,但增加幅度小于夏、秋两季的减少幅度。年平均参考作物蒸散量呈整体下降趋势,减幅小于降水量的变化趋势。全区日照时数显著减少,纬向分布特征明显,以大中城市附近减少最为突出。     

Changes of China agricultural climate resources under the background of climate change. VII. Change characteristics of agricultural climate resources in arid and semi-arid region of Tibet Plateau

Based on the 1961-2007 ground observation data from 55 meteorological stations in arid and semi-arid region of Tibetan Plateau, and by using 5-day moving average method and ArcGIS-IDW module, this paper analyzed the spatiotemporal change characteristics and climatic trend rates of agricultural climate resources in the region in 1961-1980 (period I) and 1981-2007 (period II). In 1961-2007, the sunshine duration during the growth season of chimonophilous crops in the study region changed less, while that during the growth season of thermophilic crops increased but with little spatial change. Comparing with those in period I, the average value of accumulated temperature in period II showed an increasing trend, and the area with > or = 1500 degrees C x d during the growth season of thermophilic crops increased by 33.9%. The precipitation decreased gradually from southeast to northwest. During the growth season of chimonophilous crops, the precipitation in the southeast in the two periods reached 800 mm, but the climatic trend in other areas was positive or negative, and the change rate was small. The area with precipitation > or = 400 mm during the growth season of thermophilic crops in period II expanded by 40%, as compared in period I. The reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) generally increased slightly, and shared the similar spatial distribution pattern with sunshine duration and accumulated temperature. During the growth season of thermophilic crops, the area with ET0 > or = 400 mm in period II expanded by 35.7%, compared with that in period I. In the study period, the heat and precipitation resources during crop growth seasons in Tibet Plateau increased in a certain degree, which was very beneficial to the agriculture-stock production. However, the increase of reference crop evapotranspitation indicated the increase of potential evaporation. Thereby, the researches about the possible effects of climate change on agriculture-stock production should be further strengthened.     

气候变化对黑龙江省水稻障碍型冷害的影响

明确气候变化对黑龙江省水稻孕穗期和抽穗期障碍型冷害的影响,可为水稻安全生产提供科学依据。基于黑龙江省70个台站1971—2012年的气象资料和10个台站1980—2011年水稻生育期数据,结合水稻障碍型冷害指标,分析了气候变化对黑龙江省水稻障碍型冷害的影响。结果表明:(1)水稻孕穗期障碍型冷害1990s发生频率最低,2000s发生频率最高;抽穗期障碍型冷害1970s和1980s发生频率高,1990s和2000s发生频率低。(2)抽穗期障碍型冷害发生程度大于孕穗期障碍型冷害。(3)不同熟型水稻品种可种植北界逐渐北移东扩,极早熟、早熟和中熟品种可种植范围分别缩小了5、21和11个县(市),中晚熟和晚熟品种可种植范围分别扩大了14和23个县(市)。(4)随着水稻种植格局的变化,不同熟型水稻障碍型冷害均在1990s发生频率最低,2000s发生频率最高。     

Spring phenology in boreal Eurasia over a nearly century time scale

It has been widely reported that tree leaves have tended to appear earlier in many regions of the northern hemisphere in the last few decades, reflecting climate warming. Satellite observations revealed an 8-day advance in leaf appearance date between 1982 and 1991 in northern latitudes. In situ observations show that leaf appearance dates in Europe have advanced by an average of 6.3 days from 1959 to 1996. Modelling of leaf appearance on the basis of temperature also shows a marked advance in temperate and boreal regions from 1955 to 2002. However, before 1955, reported studies of phenological variations are restricted to local scale. Modelling, ground observations and satellite observations are here combined to analyse phenological variations in Eurasian taiga over nearly a century. The trend observed by remote sensing consists mainly in a shift at the end of the 1980s, reflecting a shift in winter and spring temperature. In western boreal Eurasia, a trend to earlier leaf appearance is evident since the mid-1930s, although it is discontinuous. In contrast, the strong advance in leaf appearance detected over Central Siberia using satellite data in 1982–1991 is strengthened by late springs in 1983–1984; moreover, in this region the green-up timing has displayed successive trends with opposite signs since 1920. Thus, such strong trend is not unusual if considered locally. However, the recent advance is unique in simultaneously affecting most of the Eurasian taiga, the leaf appearance dates after 1990 being the earliest in nearly a century in most of the area.     

气候变化背景下东北水稻的时空分布特征

以受气候变化影响显著的中国东北地区(黑龙江、吉林和辽宁)为研究区域,以水稻为研究对象,利用1980—2010年东北三省分县水稻播种面积、水田分布以及水稻气候适宜性分布等多源数据,结合作物空间分配模型(SPAM),在5′×5′的像元尺度上模拟了东北地区水稻时空变化过程,结合气温、降水等气候因子的空间分异,重点分析了水稻分布在不同积温与降水区间的时空变化特征.结果表明: 水稻分布的核心纬度由北纬39°—46°推移至41°—47°,经度则由122°—127°向东推移至131°,同时还呈现向200 m以上的较高海拔地区扩展的趋势;区域内积温带均向北偏移,新增的水稻面积主要集中在2800～3400 ℃·d的积温区间;研究期间区域内降水量2000年以前呈增加趋势,之后下降,水稻面积变化则主要发生于300～600 mm的降水区间内.     

Changes in autumn vegetation dormancy onset date and the climate controls across temperate ecosystems in China from 1982 to 2010

Vegetation phenology is a sensitive indicator of the dynamic response of terrestrial ecosystems to climate change. In this study, the spatiotemporal pattern of vegetation dormancy onset date (DOD) and its climate controls over temperate China were examined by analysing the satellite‐derived normalized difference vegetation index and concurrent climate data from 1982 to 2010. Results show that preseason (May through October) air temperature is the primary climatic control of the DOD spatial pattern across temperate China, whereas preseason cumulative precipitation is dominantly associated with the DOD spatial pattern in relatively cold regions. Temporally, the average DOD over China's temperate ecosystems has delayed by 0.13 days per year during the past three decades. However, the delay trends are not continuous throughout the 29‐year period. The DOD experienced the largest delay during the 1980s, but the delay trend slowed down or even reversed during the 1990s and 2000s. Our results also show that interannual variations in DOD are most significantly related with preseason mean temperature in most ecosystems, except for the desert ecosystem for which the variations in DOD are mainly regulated by preseason cumulative precipitation. Moreover, temperature also determines the spatial pattern of temperature sensitivity of DOD, which became significantly lower as temperature increased. On the other hand, the temperature sensitivity of DOD increases with increasing precipitation, especially in relatively dry areas (e.g. temperate grassland). This finding stresses the importance of hydrological control on the response of autumn phenology to changes in temperature, which must be accounted in current temperature‐driven phenological models.     

Improving the use of aerobiological and phenoclimatological data to forecast the risk of late blight in a potato crop

The paper describes phenological and aerobiological monitoring conducted during 6 years on a potato crop. The progression of the phenological stages in relation with thermal time [growing degree-days (GDD) and physiological days (P-days)] was analyzed. The growing cycle for Kennebec variety required less than 120 days and mean values of 1700 GDD and 720 P-days to complete the phenological development. The presence of Phytophthora infestans in the environment was common in each crop cycle, but the maximum peaks of sporangia were detected a few days after the emergence of the plants. The growing cycles with lower maximum temperature had the highest presence of sporangia. Thus, significant negative correlations between mean temperature, maximum temperature, accumulated growing degree-days, accumulated physiological days and the concentration of P. infestans in the environment were found. Maximum temperature and accumulated growing degree-days of 5 previous days were the parameters that best estimated the P. Infestans concentration in the regression model applied, with an explained variance of the data of 33 and 34%.     

Examples of phenological change, past and present, in UK farming

This paper examines a large number of agricultural and other phenological records kept by a farmer in Sussex, UK from 1980 to 2000. Twenty five of the 29 events were earlier in 1990‐2000 than in 1980‐1989. The average advancement of all 29 events was 5.5 days at a time when January‐March mean temperature increased by 1.4°C. In comparing the events with monthly mean temperatures, 18 of the events were significantly negatively related to temperatures of the three calendar months preceding the mean event date. Response rates to temperature varied between 4 and 12 days earlier for each °C warmer. A comparison with historical farming records reveals that many of the current farming events appear as responsive to temperature now as they were 200 years ago.     

Influence of thermal requirement in the aerobiological and phenological behavior of two grapevine varieties

Knowledge about the timing of the aerobiological and phenological processes in plants with economic interest results of great agronomical importance, mainly for the establishment of the adaptive capacity of different varieties to various environmental conditions and the optimization of cultural practices. An agrometeorological study in two authorized varieties (Treixadura and Godello) of the Designation of Origin Ribeiro (North-western Spain) was conducted during the years 2008–2011. As consequence of the studied area bioclimatic conditions, the grapevine cycle exceed than 190 days and the varieties cultivated are considered as “late varieties.” The presence of Vitis pollen grains in the vineyard atmosphere was mainly registered during the stages 5 (inflorescence emerge) and 6 (flowering) which benefit a successful fertilization process. The variations in airborne pollen concentrations are related to temperature and humidity. Phenological models proposed in this paper offer a high accuracy as the standard deviation of error between estimated and observed values was low. The prediction variability ranges around 2 phenological scales in 2008 and 1 phenological scale in 2009, 2010 and 2011. These results indicate that the models developed to predict the phenology, in terms of degree days accumulated (GDD) using as a threshold temperature 10 °C, can be a useful tool to forecast the successive phenological events in the Designation of Origin Ribeiro area. During the stage 8 (ripening of berries), the GDD and the Brix Index were particularly correlated, so far as the differences between plants of the same variety are minimal.     

The response of <Emphasis Type="Italic">Corylus avellana</Emphasis> L. phenology to rising temperature in north-eastern Slovenia

Knowledge of plant–weather relationships can improve crop management, resulting in higher quality and more stable crop yields. The annual timing of spring phenophases in mid-latitudes is largely a response to temperature, and reflects the thermal conditions of previous months. The effect of air temperature on the variability of hazelnut (Corylus avellana L.) phenophases (leafing, flowering) was investigated. Meteorological and phenological data for five cultivars were analysed over the periods 1969–1979 (P1) and 1994–2007 (P2) in Maribor, Slovenia. Phenological data series were correlated strongly to the temperature of the preceding months (R ²: 0.64–0.98) and better correlated to daily maximum and mean temperatures than to daily minimum temperatures. About 75% of phenophases displayed a tendency towards earlier appearance and a shorter flowering duration during P2, which could be explained by the significant temperature changes (+0.3°C/decade) from December to April between 1969 and 2007. An increase in air temperature of 1°C caused an acceleration in leafing by 2.5–3.9 days, with flowering showing higher sensitivity since a 1°C increase promoted male flowering by 7.0–8.8 days and female flowering by 6.3–8.9 days. The average rate of phenological change per degree of warming (days earlier per +1°C) did not differ significantly between P1 and P2. An estimation of chilling accumulation under field conditions during 1993–2009, between 1 November and 28 February, showed that all four of these months contributed approximately similar amounts of accumulated chilling units. The growing degree days (GDD) to flowering were calculated by an estimated base temperature of 2°C and 1 January as a starting date, given the most accurate calculations. In general, thermal requirements were greater in P2 than in P1, although this difference was not significant. Longer-time series data extended to other agricultural and wild plants would be helpful in tracking possible future changes in phenological responses to local climate.     

Spatiotemporal variation in avian migration phenology: citizen science reveals effects of climate change

A growing number of studies have documented shifts in avian migratory phenology in response to climate change, and yet there is a large amount of unexplained variation in the magnitude of those responses across species and geographic regions. We use a database of citizen science bird observations to explore spatiotemporal variation in mean arrival dates across an unprecedented geographic extent for 18 common species in North America over the past decade, relating arrival dates to mean minimum spring temperature. Across all species and geographic locations, species shifted arrival dates 0.8 days earlier for every °C of warming of spring temperature, but it was common for some species in some locations to shift as much as 3-6 days earlier per °C. Species that advanced arrival dates the earliest in response to warming were those that migrate more slowly, short distance migrants, and species with broader climatic niches. These three variables explained 63% of the interspecific variation in phenological response. We also identify a latitudinal gradient in the average strength of phenological response, with species shifting arrival earlier at southern latitudes than northern latitudes for the same degree of warming. This observation is consistent with the idea that species must be more phenologically sensitive in less seasonal environments to maintain the same degree of precision in phenological timing.