Evaluation of the Best Linear Unbiased Prediction in Mixed Linear Models with Estimated Variance Components by Means of the MSE of Prediction and the Genetic Selection Differential

Prediction in mixed linear models by Henderson 's (1972) BLUP (Best Linear Unbiased Prediction) requires knowledge of the underlying variance/covariance components to have the property ‘best’. In breeding value prediction these parameters are not known, generally. They have to be replaced by estimations and BLUP becomes estimated BLUP (EBLUP). The aim of this investigation was the evaluation of EBLUP with help of a designed simulation experiment. Criteria used for the evaluation were the mean squared error (MSE) and the (genetic) selection differential (GSD). Besides, an idea of the overestimation of the accuracy of EBLUP by the naive MSE approximation based on the MSE formulas of BLUP with variance component estimations instead of unknown parameters is given.     

Improving the analysis of low heritability complex traits for enhanced genetic gain in potato

Key message

Best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP), which uses pedigree to estimate breeding values, can result in increased genetic gains for low heritability traits in autotetraploid potato.

Abstract

Conventional potato breeding strategies, based on outcrossing followed by phenotypic recurrent selection over a number of generations, can result in slow but steady improvements of traits with moderate to high heritability. However, faster gains, particularly for low heritability traits, could be made by selection on estimated breeding values (EBVs) calculated using more complete pedigree information in best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) analysis. One complication in applying BLUP predictions of breeding value to potato breeding programs is the autotetraploid inheritance pattern of this species. Here we have used a large pedigree, dating back to 1908, to estimate heritability for nine key traits for potato breeding, modelling autotetraploid inheritance. We estimate the proportion of double reduction in potatoes from our data, and across traits, to be in the order of 10 %. Estimates of heritability ranged from 0.21 for breeder’s visual preference, 0.58 for tuber yield, to 0.83 for plant maturity. Using the accuracies of the EBVs determined by cross generational validation, we model the genetic gain that could be achieved by selection of genotypes for breeding on BLUP EBVs and demonstrate that gains can be greater than in conventional schemes.     

Long-term response to genomic selection: effects of estimation method and reference population structure for different genetic architectures

Background

Genomic selection has become an important tool in the genetic improvement of animals and plants. The objective of this study was to investigate the impacts of breeding value estimation method, reference population structure, and trait genetic architecture, on long-term response to genomic selection without updating marker effects.

Methods

Three methods were used to estimate genomic breeding values: a BLUP method with relationships estimated from genome-wide markers (GBLUP), a Bayesian method, and a partial least squares regression method (PLSR). A shallow (individuals from one generation) or deep reference population (individuals from five generations) was used with each method. The effects of the different selection approaches were compared under four different genetic architectures for the trait under selection. Selection was based on one of the three genomic breeding values, on pedigree BLUP breeding values, or performed at random. Selection continued for ten generations.

Results

Differences in long-term selection response were small. For a genetic architecture with a very small number of three to four quantitative trait loci (QTL), the Bayesian method achieved a response that was 0.05 to 0.1 genetic standard deviation higher than other methods in generation 10. For genetic architectures with approximately 30 to 300 QTL, PLSR (shallow reference) or GBLUP (deep reference) had an average advantage of 0.2 genetic standard deviation over the Bayesian method in generation 10. GBLUP resulted in 0.6% and 0.9% less inbreeding than PLSR and BM and on average a one third smaller reduction of genetic variance. Responses in early generations were greater with the shallow reference population while long-term response was not affected by reference population structure.

Conclusions

The ranking of estimation methods was different with than without selection. Under selection, applying GBLUP led to lower inbreeding and a smaller reduction of genetic variance while a similar response to selection was achieved. The reference population structure had a limited effect on long-term accuracy and response. Use of a shallow reference population, most closely related to the selection candidates, gave early benefits while in later generations, when marker effects were not updated, the estimation of marker effects based on a deeper reference population did not pay off.     

Genomic BLUP Decoded: A Look into the Black Box of Genomic Prediction

Genomic best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) is a statistical method that uses relationships between individuals calculated from single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) to capture relationships at quantitative trait loci (QTL). We show that genomic BLUP exploits not only linkage disequilibrium (LD) and additive-genetic relationships, but also cosegregation to capture relationships at QTL. Simulations were used to study the contributions of those types of information to accuracy of genomic estimated breeding values (GEBVs), their persistence over generations without retraining, and their effect on the correlation of GEBVs within families. We show that accuracy of GEBVs based on additive-genetic relationships can decline with increasing training data size and speculate that modeling polygenic effects via pedigree relationships jointly with genomic breeding values using Bayesian methods may prevent that decline. Cosegregation information from half sibs contributes little to accuracy of GEBVs in current dairy cattle breeding schemes but from full sibs it contributes considerably to accuracy within family in corn breeding. Cosegregation information also declines with increasing training data size, and its persistence over generations is lower than that of LD, suggesting the need to model LD and cosegregation explicitly. The correlation between GEBVs within families depends largely on additive-genetic relationship information, which is determined by the effective number of SNPs and training data size. As genomic BLUP cannot capture short-range LD information well, we recommend Bayesian methods with t-distributed priors.     

Allele frequency changes due to hitch-hiking in genomic selection programs

Background

Genomic selection makes it possible to reduce pedigree-based inbreeding over best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) by increasing emphasis on own rather than family information. However, pedigree inbreeding might not accurately reflect loss of genetic variation and the true level of inbreeding due to changes in allele frequencies and hitch-hiking. This study aimed at understanding the impact of using long-term genomic selection on changes in allele frequencies, genetic variation and level of inbreeding.

Methods

Selection was performed in simulated scenarios with a population of 400 animals for 25 consecutive generations. Six genetic models were considered with different heritabilities and numbers of QTL (quantitative trait loci) affecting the trait. Four selection criteria were used, including selection on own phenotype and on estimated breeding values (EBV) derived using phenotype-BLUP, genomic BLUP and Bayesian Lasso. Changes in allele frequencies at QTL, markers and linked neutral loci were investigated for the different selection criteria and different scenarios, along with the loss of favourable alleles and the rate of inbreeding measured by pedigree and runs of homozygosity.

Results

For each selection criterion, hitch-hiking in the vicinity of the QTL appeared more extensive when accuracy of selection was higher and the number of QTL was lower. When inbreeding was measured by pedigree information, selection on genomic BLUP EBV resulted in lower levels of inbreeding than selection on phenotype BLUP EBV, but this did not always apply when inbreeding was measured by runs of homozygosity. Compared to genomic BLUP, selection on EBV from Bayesian Lasso led to less genetic drift, reduced loss of favourable alleles and more effectively controlled the rate of both pedigree and genomic inbreeding in all simulated scenarios. In addition, selection on EBV from Bayesian Lasso showed a higher selection differential for mendelian sampling terms than selection on genomic BLUP EBV.

Conclusions

Neutral variation can be shaped to a great extent by the hitch-hiking effects associated with selection, rather than just by genetic drift. When implementing long-term genomic selection, strategies for genomic control of inbreeding are essential, due to a considerable hitch-hiking effect, regardless of the method that is used for prediction of EBV.     

The importance of information on relatives for the prediction of genomic breeding values and the implications for the makeup of reference data sets in livestock breeding schemes

Background

The theory of genomic selection is based on the prediction of the effects of genetic markers in linkage disequilibrium with quantitative trait loci. However, genomic selection also relies on relationships between individuals to accurately predict genetic value. This study aimed to examine the importance of information on relatives versus that of unrelated or more distantly related individuals on the estimation of genomic breeding values.

Methods

Simulated and real data were used to examine the effects of various degrees of relationship on the accuracy of genomic selection. Genomic Best Linear Unbiased Prediction (gBLUP) was compared to two pedigree based BLUP methods, one with a shallow one generation pedigree and the other with a deep ten generation pedigree. The accuracy of estimated breeding values for different groups of selection candidates that had varying degrees of relationships to a reference data set of 1750 animals was investigated.

Results

The gBLUP method predicted breeding values more accurately than BLUP. The most accurate breeding values were estimated using gBLUP for closely related animals. Similarly, the pedigree based BLUP methods were also accurate for closely related animals, however when the pedigree based BLUP methods were used to predict unrelated animals, the accuracy was close to zero. In contrast, gBLUP breeding values, for animals that had no pedigree relationship with animals in the reference data set, allowed substantial accuracy.

Conclusions

An animal''s relationship to the reference data set is an important factor for the accuracy of genomic predictions. Animals that share a close relationship to the reference data set had the highest accuracy from genomic predictions. However a baseline accuracy that is driven by the reference data set size and the overall population effective population size enables gBLUP to estimate a breeding value for unrelated animals within a population (breed), using information previously ignored by pedigree based BLUP methods.     

Response to genomic selection: The Bulmer effect and the potential of genomic selection when the number of phenotypic records is limiting

Background

Over the last ten years, genomic selection has developed enormously. Simulations and results on real data suggest that breeding values can be predicted with high accuracy using genetic markers alone. However, to reach high accuracies, large reference populations are needed. In many livestock populations or even species, such populations cannot be established when traits are difficult or expensive to record, or when the population size is small. The value of genomic selection is then questionable.

Methods

In this study, we compare traditional breeding schemes based on own performance or progeny information to genomic selection schemes, for which the number of phenotypic records is limiting. Deterministic simulations were performed using selection index theory. Our focus was on the equilibrium response obtained after a few generations of selection. Therefore, we first investigated the magnitude of the Bulmer effect with genomic selection.

Results

Results showed that the reduction in response due to the Bulmer effect is the same for genomic selection as for selection based on traditional BLUP estimated breeding values, and is independent of the accuracy of selection. The reduction in response with genomic selection is greater than with selection based directly on phenotypes without the use of pedigree information, such as mass selection. To maximize the accuracy of genomic estimated breeding values when the number of phenotypic records is limiting, the same individuals should be phenotyped and genotyped, rather than genotyping parents and phenotyping their progeny. When the generation interval cannot be reduced with genomic selection, large reference populations are required to obtain a similar response to that with selection based on BLUP estimated breeding values based on own performance or progeny information. However, when a genomic selection scheme has a moderate decrease in generation interval, relatively small reference population sizes are needed to obtain a similar response to that with selection on traditional BLUP estimated breeding values.

Conclusions

When the trait of interest cannot be recorded on the selection candidate, genomic selection schemes are very attractive even when the number of phenotypic records is limited, because traditional breeding requires progeny testing schemes with long generation intervals in those cases.     

Factors Affecting Accuracy From Genomic Selection in Populations Derived From Multiple Inbred Lines: A Barley Case Study

We compared the accuracies of four genomic-selection prediction methods as affected by marker density, level of linkage disequilibrium (LD), quantitative trait locus (QTL) number, sample size, and level of replication in populations generated from multiple inbred lines. Marker data on 42 two-row spring barley inbred lines were used to simulate high and low LD populations from multiple inbred line crosses: the first included many small full-sib families and the second was derived from five generations of random mating. True breeding values (TBV) were simulated on the basis of 20 or 80 additive QTL. Methods used to derive genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV) were random regression best linear unbiased prediction (RR–BLUP), Bayes-B, a Bayesian shrinkage regression method, and BLUP from a mixed model analysis using a relationship matrix calculated from marker data. Using the best methods, accuracies of GEBV were comparable to accuracies from phenotype for predicting TBV without requiring the time and expense of field evaluation. We identified a trade-off between a method's ability to capture marker-QTL LD vs. marker-based relatedness of individuals. The Bayesian shrinkage regression method primarily captured LD, the BLUP methods captured relationships, while Bayes-B captured both. Under most of the study scenarios, mixed-model analysis using a marker-derived relationship matrix (BLUP) was more accurate than methods that directly estimated marker effects, suggesting that relationship information was more valuable than LD information. When markers were in strong LD with large-effect QTL, or when predictions were made on individuals several generations removed from the training data set, however, the ranking of method performance was reversed and BLUP had the lowest accuracy.     

Impact of depth of pedigree and inclusion of historical data on the estimation of additive variance and breeding values in a sugarcane breeding program

Sugarcane breeders in Australia combine data across four selection programs to obtain estimates of breeding value for parents. When these data are combined with full pedigree information back to founding parents, computing limitations mean it is not possible to obtain information on all parents. Family data from one sugarcane selection program were analysed using two different genetic models to investigate how different depths of pedigree and amount of data affect the reliability of estimating breeding value of sugarcane parents. These were the parental and animal models. Additive variance components and breeding values estimated from different amounts of information were compared for both models. The accuracy of estimating additive variance components and breeding values improved as more pedigree information and historical data were included in analyses. However, adding years of data had a much larger effect on the estimation of variance components of the population, and breeding values of the parents. To accurately estimate breeding values of all sugarcane parents, a minimum of three generations of pedigree and 5 years of historical data were required, while more information (four generations of pedigree and 7 years of historical data) was required when identifying top parents to be selected for future cross pollination.     

Evaluation of the best linear unbiased prediction method for breeding values of fruit-quality traits in citrus

Fruit-quality trait improvement is an important objective in citrus breeding; however, fruit breeding programs often accumulate highly unbalanced phenotypic records, which are a serious obstacle in comparing and selecting genotypes. The best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) method can be used to overcome these difficulties, but few fruit breeding programs have adopted the method, and to our knowledge, the method has not yet been used to predict breeding values of traits based on pedigree information and genetic correlations between traits in citrus. Accordingly, we used the BLUP method to predict the breeding values of nine fruit-quality traits (fruit weight, fruit skin color, fruit surface texture, peelability, flesh color, pulp firmness, segment firmness, sugar content, and acid content) utilizing phenotypic records collected over several years as part of the citrus breeding program conducted at the Kuchinotsu branch of the National Institute of Fruit Tree Science in Japan. Although the accumulated phenotypic records were highly unbalanced, the BLUP method was able to predict the breeding values of all 2122 genotypes (111 parental cultivars and 2011 F₁ offspring from 126 pair-cross families), as well as estimates of several genetic parameters, including narrow-sense heritability and phenotypic and genotypic correlations. These findings demonstrate the utility of the BLUP method in citrus crossbreeding and provide predicted breeding values, which can be used to select superior genotypes in the Kuchinotsu Citrus Breeding Program and related genetic selection endeavors.     

Genomic selection requires genomic control of inbreeding

Background

In the past, pedigree relationships were used to control and monitor inbreeding because genomic relationships among selection candidates were not available until recently. The aim of this study was to understand the consequences for genetic variability across the genome when genomic information is used to estimate breeding values and in managing the inbreeding generated in the course of selection on genome-enhanced estimated breeding values.

Methods

These consequences were measured by genetic gain, pedigree- and genome-based rates of inbreeding, and local inbreeding across the genome. Breeding schemes were compared by simulating truncation selection or optimum contribution selection with a restriction on pedigree- or genome-based inbreeding, and with selection using estimated breeding values based on genome- or pedigree-based BLUP. Trait information was recorded on full-sibs of the candidates.

Results

When the information used to estimate breeding values and to constrain rates of inbreeding were either both pedigree-based or both genome-based, rates of genomic inbreeding were close to the desired values and the identical-by-descent profiles were reasonably uniform across the genome. However, with a pedigree-based inbreeding constraint and genome-based estimated breeding values, genomic rates of inbreeding were much higher than expected. With pedigree-instead of genome-based estimated breeding values, the impact of the largest QTL on the breeding values was much smaller, resulting in a more uniform genome-wide identical-by-descent profile but genomic rates of inbreeding were still higher than expected based on pedigree relationships, because they measure the inbreeding at a neutral locus not linked to any QTL. Neutral loci did not exist here, where there were 100 QTL on each chromosome. With a pedigree-based inbreeding constraint and genome-based estimated breeding values, genomic rates of inbreeding substantially exceeded the value of its constraint. In contrast, with a genome-based inbreeding constraint and genome-based estimated breeding values, marker frequencies changed, but this change was limited by the inbreeding constraint at the marker position.

Conclusions

To control inbreeding, it is necessary to account for it on the same basis as what is used to estimate breeding values, i.e. pedigree-based inbreeding control with traditional pedigree-based BLUP estimated breeding values and genome-based inbreeding control with genome-based estimated breeding values.     

Persistence of accuracy of genomic estimated breeding values over generations in layer chickens

Background

The predictive ability of genomic estimated breeding values (GEBV) originates both from associations between high-density markers and QTL (Quantitative Trait Loci) and from pedigree information. Thus, GEBV are expected to provide more persistent accuracy over successive generations than breeding values estimated using pedigree-based methods. The objective of this study was to evaluate the accuracy of GEBV in a closed population of layer chickens and to quantify their persistence over five successive generations using marker or pedigree information.

Methods

The training data consisted of 16 traits and 777 genotyped animals from two generations of a brown-egg layer breeding line, 295 of which had individual phenotype records, while others had phenotypes on 2,738 non-genotyped relatives, or similar data accumulated over up to five generations. Validation data included phenotyped and genotyped birds from five subsequent generations (on average 306 birds/generation). Birds were genotyped for 23,356 segregating SNP. Animal models using genomic or pedigree relationship matrices and Bayesian model averaging methods were used for training analyses. Accuracy was evaluated as the correlation between EBV and phenotype in validation divided by the square root of trait heritability.

Results

Pedigree relationships in outbred populations are reduced by 50% at each meiosis, therefore accuracy is expected to decrease by the square root of 0.5 every generation, as observed for pedigree-based EBV (Estimated Breeding Values). In contrast the GEBV accuracy was more persistent, although the drop in accuracy was substantial in the first generation. Traits that were considered to be influenced by fewer QTL and to have a higher heritability maintained a higher GEBV accuracy over generations. In conclusion, GEBV capture information beyond pedigree relationships, but retraining every generation is recommended for genomic selection in closed breeding populations.     

Impact of genotyping strategy on the accuracy of genomic prediction in simulated populations of purebred swine

Single-step genomic BLUP (ssGBLUP) has been widely used in genomic evaluation due to relatively higher prediction accuracy and simplicity of use. The prediction accuracy from ssGBLUP depends on the amount of information available concerning both genotype and phenotype. This study investigated how information on genotype and phenotype that had been acquired from previous generations influences the prediction accuracy of ssGBLUP, and thus we sought an optimal balance about genotypic and phenotypic information to achieve a cost-effective and computationally efficient genomic evaluation. We generated two genetically correlated traits (h² = 0.35 for trait A, h² = 0.10 for trait B and genetic correlation 0.20) as well as two distinct populations mimicking purebred swine. Phenotypic and genotypic information in different numbers of previous generations and different genotyping rates for each litter were set to generate different datasets. Prediction accuracy was evaluated by correlating genomic estimated breeding values with true breeding values for genotyped animals in the last generation. The results revealed a negligible impact of previous generations that lacked genotyped animals on the prediction accuracy. Phenotypic and genotypic data, including the most recent three to four generations with a genotyping rate of 40% or 50% for each litter, could lead to asymptotic maximum prediction accuracy for genotyped animals in the last generation. Single-step genomic best linear unbiased prediction yielded an optimal balance about genotypic and phenotypic information to ensure a cost-effective and computationally efficient genomic evaluation of populations of polytocous animals such as purebred pigs.     

Predicting breeding values and genetic components using generalized linear mixed models for categorical and continuous traits in walnut (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Juglans regia</Emphasis>)

Genetic components for economically important traits in walnut (Juglans regia) were estimated for the first time using historical pedigree and heirloom phenotypic data from the walnut breeding program at the University of California, Davis. The constructed pedigree is composed of ~ 15,000 individuals and is derived from current and historic phenotypic records dating back > 50 years and located across California. To predict the additive genetic values of individuals under selection, generalized linear mixed models (GLMM), implemented with MCMCglmm, were developed. Several repeatability models were established to obtain the best model and predict the genetic parameters for each trait. Repeatability for yield, harvest date, extra-light kernel color (ELKC), and lateral bearing were predicted at 0.82, 0.98, 0.63, and 0.96, respectively, and average narrow-sense heritabilities were 0.54, 0.77, 0.49, and 0.75, respectively. Each individual in the pedigree was ranked by its estimated breeding value (EBV). The genetic trend showed specific patterns for each trait, and real genetic improvement was found over time. The completed pedigree built here, the estimated breeding values, and the ranking of individuals according to their breeding values, can be used to guide future crossing designs in the walnut breeding program and future implementation of genomic selection methods in walnut.     

Estimation of long-term genetic improvement for gerbera using the best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) procedure

Long-term genetic improvement is measured by the selection response predicted from estimates of narrow-sense heritability. Accurate estimates of selection response require partitioning the change of population mean into genetic and environmental components. A selection experiment for cut-flower yield was conducted for 16 generations in the Davis population of gerbera (Gerbera hybrida, Compositae). Breeding values were estimated for individual plants in the population using the best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) procedure. Genetic change in each generation was calculated from the breeding values of individual plants. The results of this study indicate that long-term selection was successful and necessary for the genetic improvement in cut-flower yield. Genetic improvement in mean breeding value over 16 generations was 33 flowers. Mean breeding values increased monotonically with an S-shape pattern while environmental effects fluctuated from generation to generation. Results predict that cut-flower yield in the Davis population of gerbera will continue to respond to selection.     

Genotyping strategies for genomic selection in small dairy cattle populations

This study evaluated different female-selective genotyping strategies to increase the predictive accuracy of genomic breeding values (GBVs) in populations that have a limited number of sires with a large number of progeny. A simulated dairy population was utilized to address the aims of the study. The following selection strategies were used: random selection, two-tailed selection by yield deviations, two-tailed selection by breeding value, top yield deviation selection and top breeding value selection. For comparison, two other strategies, genotyping of sires and pedigree indexes from traditional genetic evaluation, were included in the analysis. Two scenarios were simulated, low heritability (h² = 0.10) and medium heritability (h² = 0.30). GBVs were estimated using the Bayesian Lasso. The accuracy of predicted GBVs using the two-tailed strategies was better than the accuracy obtained using other strategies (0.50 and 0.63 for the two-tailed selection by yield deviations strategy and 0.48 and 0.63 for the two-tailed selection by breeding values strategy in low- and medium-heritability scenarios, respectively, using 1000 genotyped cows). When 996 genotyped bulls were used as the training population, the sire’ strategy led to accuracies of 0.48 and 0.55 for low- and medium-heritability traits, respectively. The Random strategies required larger training populations to outperform the accuracies of the pedigree index; however, selecting females from the top of the yield deviations or breeding values of the population did not improve accuracy relative to that of the pedigree index. Bias was found for all genotyping strategies considered, although the Top strategies produced the most biased predictions. Strategies that involve genotyping cows can be implemented in breeding programs that have a limited number of sires with a reliable progeny test. The results of this study showed that females that exhibited upper and lower extreme values within the distribution of yield deviations may be included as training population to increase reliability in small reference populations. The strategies that selected only the females that had high estimated breeding values or yield deviations produced suboptimal results.     

Accuracy of pedigree and genomic predictions of carcass and novel meat quality traits in multi-breed sheep data assessed by cross-validation

Background

Genomic predictions can be applied early in life without impacting selection candidates. This is especially useful for meat quality traits in sheep. Carcass and novel meat quality traits were predicted in a multi-breed sheep population that included Merino, Border Leicester, Polled Dorset and White Suffolk sheep and their crosses.

Methods

Prediction of breeding values by best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP) based on pedigree information was compared to prediction based on genomic BLUP (GBLUP) and a Bayesian prediction method (BayesR). Cross-validation of predictions across sire families was used to evaluate the accuracy of predictions based on the correlation of predicted and observed values and the regression of observed on predicted values was used to evaluate bias of methods. Accuracies and regression coefficients were calculated using either phenotypes or adjusted phenotypes as observed variables.

Results and conclusions

Genomic methods increased the accuracy of predicted breeding values to on average 0.2 across traits (range 0.07 to 0.31), compared to an average accuracy of 0.09 for pedigree-based BLUP. However, for some traits with smaller reference population size, there was no increase in accuracy or it was small. No clear differences in accuracy were observed between GBLUP and BayesR. The regression of phenotypes on breeding values was close to 1 for all methods, indicating little bias, except for GBLUP and adjusted phenotypes (regression = 0.78). Accuracies calculated with adjusted (for fixed effects) phenotypes were less variable than accuracies based on unadjusted phenotypes, indicating that fixed effects influence the latter. Increasing the reference population size increased accuracy, indicating that adding more records will be beneficial. For the Merino, Polled Dorset and White Suffolk breeds, accuracies were greater than for the Border Leicester breed due to the smaller sample size and limited across-breed prediction. BayesR detected only a few large marker effects but one region on chromosome 6 was associated with large effects for several traits. Cross-validation produced very similar variability of accuracy and regression coefficients for BLUP, GBLUP and BayesR, showing that this variability is not a property of genomic methods alone. Our results show that genomic selection for novel difficult-to-measure traits is a feasible strategy to achieve increased genetic gain.     

Best linear unbiased prediction and optimum allocation of test resources in maize breeding with doubled haploids

With best linear unbiased prediction (BLUP), information from genetically related candidates is combined to obtain more precise estimates of genotypic values of test candidates and thereby increase progress from selection. We developed and applied theory and Monte Carlo simulations implementing BLUP in 2 two-stage maize breeding schemes and various selection strategies. Our objectives were to (1) derive analytical solutions of the mixed model equations under two breeding schemes, (2) determine the optimum allocation of test resources with BLUP under different assumptions regarding the variance component ratios for grain yield in maize, (3) compare the progress from selection using BLUP and conventional phenotypic selection based on mean performance solely of the candidates, and (4) analyze the potential of BLUP for further improving the progress from selection. The breeding schemes involved selection for testcross performance either of DH lines at both stages (DHTC) or of S₁ families at the first stage and DH lines at the second stage (S₁TC-DHTC). Our analytical solutions allowed much faster calculations of the optimum allocations and superseded matrix inversions to solve the mixed model equations. Compared to conventional phenotypic selection, the progress from selection was slightly higher with BLUP for both optimization criteria, namely the selection gain and the probability to select the best genotypes. The optimum allocation of test resources in S₁TC-DHTC involved ≥10 test locations at both stages, a low number of crosses (≤6) each with 100–300 S₁ families at the first stage, and 500–1,000 DH lines at the second stage. In breeding scheme DHTC, the optimum number of test candidates at the first stage was 5–10 times larger, whereas the number of test locations at the first stage and the number of test candidates at the second stage were strongly reduced compared to S₁TC-DHTC.     

The importance of identity-by-state information for the accuracy of genomic selection

Background

It is commonly assumed that prediction of genome-wide breeding values in genomic selection is achieved by capitalizing on linkage disequilibrium between markers and QTL but also on genetic relationships. Here, we investigated the reliability of predicting genome-wide breeding values based on population-wide linkage disequilibrium information, based on identity-by-descent relationships within the known pedigree, and to what extent linkage disequilibrium information improves predictions based on identity-by-descent genomic relationship information.

Methods

The study was performed on milk, fat, and protein yield, using genotype data on 35 706 SNP and deregressed proofs of 1086 Italian Brown Swiss bulls. Genome-wide breeding values were predicted using a genomic identity-by-state relationship matrix and a genomic identity-by-descent relationship matrix (averaged over all marker loci). The identity-by-descent matrix was calculated by linkage analysis using one to five generations of pedigree data.

Results

We showed that genome-wide breeding values prediction based only on identity-by-descent genomic relationships within the known pedigree was as or more reliable than that based on identity-by-state, which implicitly also accounts for genomic relationships that occurred before the known pedigree. Furthermore, combining the two matrices did not improve the prediction compared to using identity-by-descent alone. Including different numbers of generations in the pedigree showed that most of the information in genome-wide breeding values prediction comes from animals with known common ancestors less than four generations back in the pedigree.

Conclusions

Our results show that, in pedigreed breeding populations, the accuracy of genome-wide breeding values obtained by identity-by-descent relationships was not improved by identity-by-state information. Although, in principle, genomic selection based on identity-by-state does not require pedigree data, it does use the available pedigree structure. Our findings may explain why the prediction equations derived for one breed may not predict accurate genome-wide breeding values when applied to other breeds, since family structures differ among breeds.     

Genomic selection: prediction of accuracy and maximisation of long term response

Genomic selection refers to the use of dense markers covering the whole genome to estimate the breeding value of selection candidates for a quantitative trait. This paper considers prediction of breeding value based on a linear combination of the markers. In this case the best estimate of each marker’s effect is the expectation of the effect conditional on the data. To calculate this requires a prior distribution of marker effects. If the marker effects are normally distributed with constant variance, BLUP can be used to calculate the estimated effects of the markers and hence the estimated breeding value (EBV). In this case the model is equivalent to a conventional animal model in which the relationship matrix among the animals is estimated from the markers instead of the pedigree. The accuracy of the EBV can approach 1.0 but a very large amount of data is required. An alternative model was investigated in which only some markers have non-zero effects and these effects follow a reflected exponential distribution. In this case the expected effect of a marker is a non-linear function of the data such that apparently small effects are regressed back almost to zero and consequently these markers can be deleted from the model. The accuracy in this case is considerably higher than when marker effects are normally distributed. If genomic selection is practiced for several generations the response declines in a manner that can be predicted from the marker allele frequencies. Genomic selection is likely to lead to a more rapid decline in the selection response than phenotypic selection unless new markers are continually added to the prediction of breeding value. A method to find the optimum index to maximise long term selection response is derived. This index varies the weight given to a marker according to its frequency such that markers where the favourable allele has low frequency receive more weight in the index.