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1.
The aim of this study was to estimate heritability and predict breeding values for longevity among cows in herds of Nellore breed, considering the trait cow’s age at last calving (ALC), by means of survival analysis methodology. The records of 11,791 animals from 22 farms were used. The variable ALC has been used by a criterion that made it possible to include cows not only at their first calving but also at their ninth calving. The criterion used was the difference between the date of each cow’s last calving and the date of the last calving on each farm. If this difference was greater than 36 months, the cow was considered to have failed and uncensored. If not, this cow was censored, thus indicating that future calving remained possible for this cow. The survival model used for the analyses was the proportional hazards model, and the base risk was given by a Weibull distribution. The heritability estimate obtained was equal to 0.25. It was found that the ALC variable had the capacity to respond to selection for the purpose of increasing the longevity of the cows in the herds.  相似文献   

2.
In most studies on beef cattle longevity, only the cows reaching a given number of calvings by a specific age are considered in the analyses. With the aim of evaluating all cows with productive life in herds, taking into consideration the different forms of management on each farm, it was proposed to measure cow longevity from age at last calving (ALC), that is, the most recent calving registered in the files. The objective was to characterize this trait in order to study the longevity of Nellore cattle, using the Kaplan–Meier estimators and the Cox model. The covariables and class effects considered in the models were age at first calving (AFC), year and season of birth of the cow and farm. The variable studied (ALC) was classified as presenting complete information (uncensored = 1) or incomplete information (censored = 0), using the criterion of the difference between the date of each cow's last calving and the date of the latest calving at each farm. If this difference was >36 months, the cow was considered to have failed. If not, this cow was censored, thus indicating that future calving remained possible for this cow. The records of 11 791 animals from 22 farms within the Nellore Breed Genetic Improvement Program (‘Nellore Brazil’) were used. In the estimation process using the Kaplan–Meier model, the variable of AFC was classified into three age groups. In individual analyses, the log-rank test and the Wilcoxon test in the Kaplan–Meier model showed that all covariables and class effects had significant effects (P < 0.05) on ALC. In the analysis considering all covariables and class effects, using the Wald test in the Cox model, only the season of birth of the cow was not significant for ALC (P > 0.05). This analysis indicated that each month added to AFC diminished the risk of the cow's failure in the herd by 2%. Nonetheless, this does not imply that animals with younger AFC had less profitability. Cows with greater numbers of calvings were more precocious than those with fewer calvings.  相似文献   

3.
Data from the national dairy cow recording systems during 1997 were used to calculate lactation-specific cumulative risk of mastitis treatments and cumulative risk of removal from the herds in Denmark, Finland Norway and Sweden. Sweden had the lowest risk of recorded mastitis treatments during 305 days of lactation and Norway had the highest risk. The incidence risk of recorded mastitis treatments during 305 days of lactation in Denmark, Finland, Norway and Sweden was 0.177, 0.139, 0.215 and 0.127 for first parity cows and 0.228, 0.215, 0.358 and 0.204 for parities higher than three, respectively. The risk of a first parity cow being treated for mastitis was almost 3 times higher at calving in Norway than in Sweden. The period with the highest risk for mastitis treatments was from 2 days before calving until 14 days after calving and the highest risk for removal was from calving to 10 days after calving in all countries.The study clearly demonstrated differences in bovine mastitis treatment patterns among the Nordic countries. The most important findings were the differences in treatment risks during different lactations within each country, as well as differences in strategies with respect to the time during lactation mastitis was treated.  相似文献   

4.
Taking into account functional traits in the breeding practice should lead to a longer productive life of cows. However, despite the increased contribution of these traits in bull selection indices, their daughters are frequently culled as early as the 2nd or 3rd lactation. The problem is whether and to what extent the genetic potential of animals is realized in the production practice. Therefore, the purpose of this study was to determine the associations between the breeding value (BV) of bulls and their daughters for cow longevity and culling reasons in the Holstein-Friesian cattle population in Poland. Data for 532 062 cows culled in 2012, 2015, and 2018 were analyzed. A majority of 5 045 cow sires originated from Poland, Germany, France, the Netherlands, and the United States. The highest variation in the contribution of culling reasons was for the cows culled at the age of 2–4 years. The contribution of the culling reasons, analyzed in relation to the cow culling age, remained similar and the only exception was culling because of old age, for which a significant increase was observed only for the culling age of at least 9 years (13.8%), which was reached by only 7.3% of the cows. The sires were characterized by generally high BV for conformation and reproductive traits. However, they had, at most, the average genetic potential for functional longevity. There were a number of beneficial associations found between the BV of bulls and the distribution of culling reasons in their daughters. For example, it concerns relations between the somatic cell score in milk and culling due to udder diseases and low milk yield, between the interval from calving to first insemination and low milk yield, between the protein yield and old age, or between the BV for certain conformation traits (size, udder) and cow culling due to age. In these cases, as the BV increased for a given trait, the contribution of the corresponding cow culling reason tended to decrease. Our study showed that it seems reasonable to consider Holstein-Friesian cows aged at least 9 years at culling to be long-living animals. This is primarily evidenced by the rapid increase in the culling due to old age in relation to younger cows. Nowadays the above age limit can be suggested as a criterion of longevity for Holstein-Friesian cows but the criterion should be updated to the relation genotype-environment-economy that tends to change over time.  相似文献   

5.
This study predicts the magnitude and between herd variation in changes of methane emissions and production efficiency associated with interventions to improve reproductive efficiency in dairy cows. Data for 10,000 herds of 200 cows were simulated. Probability of conception was predicted daily from the start of the study (parturition) for each cow up to day 300 of lactation. Four scenarios of differing first insemination management were simulated for each herd using the same theoretical cows: A baseline scenario based on breeding from observed oestrus only, synchronisation of oestrus for pre-set first insemination using 2 methods, and a regime using prostaglandin treatments followed by first insemination to observed oestrus. Cows that did not conceive to first insemination were re-inseminated following detection of oestrus. For cows that conceived, gestation length was 280 days with cessation of milking 60 days before calving. Those cows not pregnant after 300 days of lactation were culled and replaced by a heifer. Daily milk yield was calculated for 730 days from the start of the study for each cow. Change in mean reproductive and economic outputs were summarised for each herd following the 3 interventions. For each scenario, methane emissions were determined by daily forage dry matter intake, forage quality, and cow replacement risk. Linear regression was used to summarise relationships. In some circumstances improvement in reproductive efficiency using the programmes investigated was associated with reduced cost and methane emissions compared to reliance on detection of oestrus. Efficiency of oestrus detection and the time to commencement of breeding after calving influenced variability in changes in cost and methane emissions. For an average UK herd this was a saving of at least £50 per cow and a 3.6% reduction in methane emissions per L of milk when timing of first insemination was pre-set.  相似文献   

6.
Twenty-two Michigan Holstein-Friesian herds were studied to determine the incidence and epidemiology of anestrus. In 3,309 lactations studied, 42% were classified as having exhibited preservice anestrus (no estrus detected by 70 d after calving). Organic reasons (pyometra, cystic follicles, static ovaries) were identified by palpation per rectum for 237 (23%) of the cows with preservice anestrus that were examined by a veterinarian. Postservice anestrus, defined as failure to show estrus within 35 d after an unsuccessful insemination, was identified in 790 (47%) of 1,691 lactations. Veterinary examination identified 104 (20%) of postservice anestrous cows as having this condition because of organic causes. The average cow with preservice anestrus had an increase of 30 d open compared to her herdmates, and the average cow with postservice anestrus had an increase of 37 d open. Anestrous cows produced more milk than their unaffected herdmates in both the current and the previous lactation. Analysis of composite lactation curves indicates that, for preservice anestrus, this additional milk production was obtained gradually over the entire lactation. Anestrous cows were culled at a significantly higher rate than their herdmates. Cows with preservice anestrus were more likely to have begun their lactation in the spring months.  相似文献   

7.
Bivariate analyses of functional longevity in dairy cattle measured as survival to next lactation (SURV) with milk yield and fertility traits were carried out. A sequential threshold-linear censored model was implemented for the analyses of SURV. Records on 96 642 lactations from 41 170 cows were used to estimate genetic parameters, using animal models, for longevity, 305 d-standardized milk production (MY305), days open (DO) and number of inseminations to conception (INS) in the Spanish Holstein population; 31% and 30% of lactations were censored for DO and INS, respectively. Heritability estimates for SURV and MY305 were 0.11 and 0.27 respectively; while heritability estimates for fertility traits were lower (0.07 for DO and 0.03 for INS). Antagonist genetic correlations were estimated between SURV and fertility (-0.78 and -0.54 for DO and INS, respectively) or production (-0.53 for MY305), suggesting reduced functional longevity with impaired fertility and increased milk production. Longer days open seems to affect survival more than increased INS. Also, high productive cows were more problematic, less functional and more liable to being culled. The results suggest that the sequential threshold model is a method that might be considered at evaluating genetic relationship between discrete-time survival and other traits, due to its flexibility.  相似文献   

8.
A large number of environmental factors affect the daily milk production of a cow. Lactation curves included in the French test-day model are modelled as a function of days in milk with semi-parametric curves (splines). The proper modelling of environmental effects in the test-day analysis was investigated using test-day records collected from the first three lactations of French Montbéliarde cows from 1988 to 2005. Four lactation-curve effects describing calving month, length of dry period, age at calving and gestation defined within parity-class were fitted. The shape of lactation curves did not depend on year of calving, which can be modelled as a constant over the whole lactation. To reduce computational requirements and time, data were pre-adjusted in a first step for fixed effects with no year interaction, and then used for genetic evaluation. Correlations for each lactation between 305-day estimates of genetic and permanent environment effects computed using pre-adjustment factors obtained at a 4-year interval were virtually one. The use of a two-step procedure had a very limited impact on the estimates of genetic and permanent environment effects. The minimum correlations with values estimated with a one-step procedure were 0.9984 and 0.9974, respectively. The knowledge of systematic environmental effects affecting the cow daily yield through lactation curves offers interesting perspectives to predict future daily milk production.  相似文献   

9.
Lameness has contributed to reproductive inefficiency and increased the risk of culling in dairy cows. We developed a 5-point lameness scoring system that assessed gait and placed a novel emphasis on back posture. Our objective was to determine if this system predicted future reproductive performance and the risk of culling. The study was conducted at a commercial dairy farm with a history of declining reproductive efficiency and an increasing prevalence of lameness. A total of 66 primipara and pluripara calved, received an initial lameness score, and completed their 60-d voluntary waiting period. The overall prevalence of lameness (mean lameness score >2) was 65.2%. Scoring continued at 4-wk intervals and ceased with conception or culling. The percentage of cows confirmed pregnant and culled was 77.3 and 22.7, respectively. For each reproductive endpoint, a 2 x 2 table was constructed with lameness score >2 as the positive risk factor and either performance greater than the endpoint mean or being culled as the positive disease or condition. Positive and negative predictive values, relative risk, Chisquare statistic and regression analysis were used to evaluate the data. The positive predictive values for days to first service, days open, breeding herd days, services per pregnancy and being culled were 58, 68, 65, 39 and 35%, respectively. Similarly, the negative predictive values were 79, 96, 100, 96 and 100%, respectively. Except for one reproductive endpoint, the total number of services, all linear regressions were significant at P < 0.01. Having a lameness score >2 predicted that a cow would have extended intervals from calving to first service and to conception, spend or be assigned to (explained herein) more total days in the breeding herd, require more services per pregnancy and be 8.4 times more likely to be culled. We believe that this lameness scoring system effectively identifies lame cows. Observation of the arched-back posture in a standing cow (> or =LS 3) should trigger corrective interventions.  相似文献   

10.
Cow longevity and lifetime performance traits are good indicators of breeding effectiveness and animal welfare. They are also interrelated with the economics of dairy herd. Unfortunately, a high milk yield is often associated with deteriorated cow health and fertility and, consequently, with an increased culling rate. This situation, observed also in the Polish population of Holstein-Friesian cattle, inspired us to undertake a study on the associations between some factors and lifetime performance characteristics. The data set consisted of the records on 135 496 cows, including 131 526 of the Black and White strain (BW), and 3970 of the Red and White strain (RW) covered by performance recording and culled in 2012. It was found that cows of the BW strain and those from the largest herds (>100 cows) reached higher lifetime and mean daily energy-corrected milk (ECM) yields than cows of the RW strain and those from smaller herds culled at a similar age. Cows youngest at first calving (<2.0 years) were characterised by the highest lifetime ECM yield. It indicates that heifers can be bred even when they are younger than 15 to 16 months with no significant negative effect on their later performance. Infertility and reproduction problems (39.6%) and udder diseases (15.5%) constituted the most frequent reasons for cow culling. Cow longevity and lifetime productivity were considerably affected by the interactions between the studied factors.  相似文献   

11.
Longevity is one of the most important traits determining dairy cow profitability. In the last decades dairy cows suffered a lowering in the age at culling. With the aim to identify the genes involved in longevity, dates of birth, yields, dates of calving during lifespan and culling dates were collected for 946 culled cows which had been genotyped with the Bovine High Density panel. Using the GenABEL package in R, genome-wide association analysis was performed on three potential traits of longevity: (1) ‘days in production,’ (2) ‘days in herd,’ (3) number of calvings over lifespan.’ Five genome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated with all three longevity traits were detected. Several consecutive SNPs identified on chromosomes 16 and 30 indicated the presence of two suggestive quantitative trait loci (QTL). The genes comprised in the QTL regions had biological functions related to fertility, reproductive disorders, heat stress and welfare of cows. These findings might contribute to improving breeding strategies to improve longevity.  相似文献   

12.
Twin calvings on Dutch dairy farms were studied using data collected through a routine herd health and production management program. Over a period of 6.5 yr, 381 twin calvings (762 calves) of a total of 11,951 calvings were recorded on 33 farms. The 381 twin calvings were compared with a referent group of 1,536 calvings that was randomly selected from the orginal 11,951 calvings. Risk factors for twin calvings were parity, season, herd and previous twinning. High cumulative milk production was associated with cows conceiving twins. Treatment for infertility in the preceding lactation was an equivocal risk factor. Twin calvings increased the risk of abortion, retained placenta, fertility-related treatment, as well as the number of days open and the number of inseminations per conception. Although twin calvings resulted in more calves born per dam, the number of available replacement heifers did not increase. After twin calving, cows produced slightly less milk and were culled more often than single calving cows. To adapt appropriate management practices for cows carrying twins, an early and reliable method for detecting twin pregnancies is needed.  相似文献   

13.
Factors influencing heifer survival and fertility on commercial dairy farms   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
The average dairy cow survives only three lactations, reducing the availability of replacement heifers. Prenatal losses occur due to early embryonic mortality (about 40%), later embryo loss (up to 20% in high-yielding herds) or abortion (about 5%). A recent survey of 19 UK herds showed that 7.9% of calves were born dead and 3.4% died within 1 month. During the rearing phase, 6.7% of animals were lost before reaching first service at 15 months due to disease or accident and another 2.3% failed to conceive. Many potential replacements therefore never enter the milking herd. This severely limits opportunities for on-farm selection of breeding cows in addition to presenting a welfare issue and causing economic loss. The most profitable animals once lactation is reached combine good milk production with a regular calving pattern. Some aspects of performance are related to age at first calving (AFC), which in turn is influenced by heifer growth rates. Poorly growing animals required more services to conceive, calved later and subsequently performed badly. Optimum fertility and maximum yield in the first lactation were associated with an AFC of 24 to 25 months. However, heifers calving at 22 to 23 months performed best in terms of total milk yield and survival over the first 5 years, partly because good heifer fertility was associated with better fertility later. We have investigated some possible juvenile predictors of future performance. Low-birth-weight calves were more likely to come from either primiparous mothers or older dams (3+ lactations) with higher peak milk yields, suggesting that the uterine environment may limit prenatal calf growth due to competition for nutrients with maternal growth or milk production. Linear trait classification scores for frame size show genetic correlations with longevity. The skeletal measures of height and crown rump length in 1-month-old calves was correlated to subsequent stature, and frame size was correlated to weight at 15 months. It may thus be possible to predict performance from simple size measurements as juveniles. Neither endogenous nor stimulated growth hormone (GH) release in 6-month-old calves were related to milk yield in the first three lactations, but size of a stimulated GH peak was positively related to milk energy values in the first lactation. Cows with delayed ovulation (>45 days) in the first lactation had a higher GH pulse amplitude and lower IGF-I as a juvenile. Cows that partition excess energy into milk in their first lactation may suffer reduced longevity.  相似文献   

14.
This study aimed to compare three woodchip out-wintering pad (OWP) designs, and indoor cubicle housing with regard to cow dirtiness scores during the winter housing period, and udder health during both the winter period and the following lactation, for spring-calving dairy cows. The treatments were: an uncovered (UP) and covered (CP) OWP with a concrete feed apron; an uncovered OWP with self-feed silage pit provided directly on the woodchips (SP); and indoor cubicle housing (IC). Data were compared during 2 years: year 1 was a case study while year 2 was an experimental study. In year 1, treatments were UP (space allowance = 12 m2/cow), CP (6 m2/cow) and IC. In year 2, all three OWP designs (12 m2/cow) were compared with IC. Animals were assigned to treatments at the end of lactation in the autumn, and remained there while dry until calving the following spring. Subsequently, all cows were at pasture during lactation. Outcome measures for analysis were cow dirtiness score, somatic cell score (SCS) and incidence of clinical mastitis during the dry period and during lactation. Quarter milk samples were also taken at drying off, calving and 3 weeks post partum both years, and at approximately 113 days in milk in year 2. Samples were analysed for presence of mastitis-causing agents and SCS was determined. Sub-clinical mastitis was diagnosed when cows had an SCS greater than 200 000, or California mastitis test greater than 1 in at least one quarter. In year 1, cows in CP were dirtier than cows in the other two treatments. These animals also had the highest SCS during lactation and tended to have more mastitis-causing agents isolated from quarter milk samples. In year 2, when all cows were stocked at the same density, cows in the sheltered OWP (i.e. CP) had similar dirtiness scores to cows in cubicles and significantly lower dirtiness scores than cows in the unsheltered OWP designs, i.e. UP and SP. However, there were no effects on SCS or quarter sample results. Cleaning of OWP's stocked at 12 m2/cow reduced cow dirtiness scores. However, cleaning of CP in year 1 when cows were stocked at 6 m2/cow had no effect on dirtiness scores. We conclude that dry cows stocked at 12 m2/cow on OWP's are unlikely to have udder health problems in the subsequent lactation. Furthermore, provision of shelter and cleaning of the woodchips are management factors that help to keep cows clean on OWP's.  相似文献   

15.
Like most mysticetes, North Atlantic right whale cows generally separate from their calves on their feeding grounds within a year. Right whale life history data from 1993 to 2005 were analyzed to determine the duration of cow/calf associations and where the pair separated. A change occurred with the 2001 cows; 71% of those available stayed with their calves into the second year and this behavior remained elevated for several years. Less experienced cows, independent of their age, were more likely to extend their associations. The occurrence of cow/yearling associations was not related to the length of the cow's previous interbirth interval, used as a proxy for cow condition, but the hypothesis that body condition impacts how long cows nurse their young could not be adequately tested. Seventy-seven percent of the observed cow/yearling pairs also returned to the calving ground, a substantial physiological investment given the 1,450 km plus migration and the fact that they fast there, indicating that factors other than nutrition also influenced the cow's behavior. The concurrent increase in juveniles in the shallow waters of the winter calving grounds may afford naive whales greater protection from predators or provide a social benefit that improves their overall fitness.  相似文献   

16.
The objective of this study was to evaluate the effect of two different rumen-protected fat supplements, on reproductive performance and milk production, in grass-based spring calving cows. Two hundred and one Holstein-Friesian cows with an average lactation number of 3.6 (20% first lactation, 16% second lactation and 64% third lactation or greater) were grouped into blocks of three on the basis of calving date, lactation number and previous lactation milk yield for cows of second lactation or greater and on the basis of calving date for first lactation animals. From within-blocks individual animals were assigned at random, within 10 days post-calving, to one of the following three treatments: (1) Megalac Plus 3% (MP; 0.4kg/day, containing Ca salt of palm fatty acids and Ca salt of methionine hydroxy analogue), (2) Megapro Gold (MPG; 1.5kg/day, containing Ca salt of palm fatty acids, extracted rapeseed meal and whey permeate), and (3) Control (C; unsupplemented). Cows were supplemented for on average 103 days (range 54-134 days). The average milk yield over the first 12 weeks of lactation was higher (P<0.05) for both fat supplements compared to C and was higher for MP compared to C over the full lactation. Both supplements reduced (P<0.05) milk protein concentration over the first 6 weeks of lactation. MPG increased (P<0.05) conception rate to first service compared to C. Conception rate to first service was similar (P=0.14) on MP compared to C. For pregnancy to second service, C had a higher (P<0.05) conception rate than MP. There were no significant differences between treatments in overall pregnancy rate, services per conception, number of cows served in the first 3 weeks of the breeding season or the 6-weeks in-calf rate. Comparing the combined fat treatments to C resulted in a higher (P<0.05) conception rate to first service for the fat treatments but no significant difference in overall pregnancy rate. In conclusion, fat supplements increased conception rate to first service but did not significantly affect the proportion of cows pregnant at the end of the breeding season.  相似文献   

17.
The objectives of this study were to see if the body condition score curve during lactation could be described using a model amenable to biological interpretation, a non-linear function assuming exponential rates of change in body condition with time, and to quantify the effect of breed and parity on curves of body condition during lactation. Three breeds were represented: Danish Holstein (n = 112), Danish Red (n = 97) and Jerseys (n = 8). Cows entered the experiment at the start of first lactation and were studied during consecutive lactations (average number of lactations 2, minimum 1, maximum 3). They remained on the same dietary treatment throughout. Body condition was scored to the nearest half unit on the Danish scale (see Kristensen (1986); derived from the Lowman et al. (1976) system) from 1 to 5 on days: 2, 14, 28, 42, 56, 84, 112, 168, 224 after calving. Additionally, condition score was recorded on the day of drying off the cow, 35, 21, and 7 days before expected calving and finally on the day of calving. All condition scores were made by the trained personal on the research farm, where the same person made 92% of the scores. The temporal patterns in condition score were modelled as consisting of two underlying processes, one related to days from calving, referred to as lactation only, the other to days from (subsequent) conception, referred to as pregnancy. Both processes were assumed to be exponential functions of time. Each process was modelled separately using exponential functions, i.e. one model for lactation only and one for pregnancy, and then a combined model for both lactation only and pregnancy was fitted. The data set contained 467 lactation periods and 378 pregnancy periods. The temporal patterns in condition score of cows kept under stable and sufficient nutritional conditions were successfully described using a two component non-linear function. First lactation cows had shallower curves, they had greater condition scores at the nadir of the curve. Danish Holstein and Jersey were thinner at the end of the mobilisation period having lost more body condition than the Danish Red breed. Although the dairy breeds ended up being thinner there were no significant differences in the rate at which they lost body condition.  相似文献   

18.
Dairy production systems are often criticized as being major emitters of greenhouse gases (GHG). In this context, the extension of the length of the productive life of dairy cows is gaining interest as a potential GHG mitigation option. In the present study, we investigated cow and system GHG emission intensity and profitability based on data from 30 dairy cows of different productive lifetime fed either no or limited amounts of concentrate. Detailed information concerning productivity, feeding and individual enteric methane emissions of the individuals was available from a controlled experiment and herd book databases. A simplified GHG balance was calculated for each animal based on the milk produced at the time of the experiment and for their entire lifetime milk production. For the lifetime production, we also included the emissions arising from potential beef produced by fattening the offspring of the dairy cows. This accounted for the effect that changes in the length of productive life will affect the replacement rate and thus the number of calves that can be used for beef production. Profitability was assessed by calculating revenues and full economic costs for the cows in the data set. Both emission intensity and profitability were most favourable in cows with long productive life, whereas cows that had not finished their first lactation performed particularly unfavourably with regard to their emissions per unit of product and rearing costs were mostly not repaid. Including the potential beef production, GHG emissions in relation to total production of animal protein also decreased with age, but the overall variability was greater, as the individual cow history (lifetime milk yield, twin births, stillbirths, etc.) added further sources of variation. The present results show that increasing the length of productive life of dairy cows is a viable way to reduce the climate impact and to improve profitability of dairy production.  相似文献   

19.
The main objectives of this prospective cohort study were a) to describe lameness prevalence at drying off in large high producing New York State herds based on visual locomotion score (VLS) and identify potential cow and herd level risk factors, and b) to develop a model that will predict the probability of a cow developing claw horn disruption lesions (CHDL) in the subsequent lactation using cow level variables collected at drying off and/or available from farm management software. Data were collected from 23 large commercial dairy farms located in upstate New York. A total of 7,687 dry cows, that were less than 265 days in gestation, were enrolled in the study. Farms were visited between May 2012 and March 2013, and cows were assessed for body condition score (BCS) and VLS. Data on the CHDL events recorded by the farm employees were extracted from the Dairy-Comp 305 database, as well as information regarding the studied cows’ health events, milk production, and reproductive records throughout the previous and subsequent lactation period. Univariable analyses and mixed multivariable logistic regression models were used to analyse the data at the cow level. The overall average prevalence of lameness (VLS > 2) at drying off was 14%. Lactation group, previous CHDL, mature equivalent 305-d milk yield (ME305), season, BCS at drying off and sire PTA for strength were all significantly associated with lameness at the drying off (cow-level). Lameness at drying off was associated with CHDL incidence in the subsequent lactation, as well as lactation group, previous CHDL and ME305. These risk factors for CHDL in the subsequent lactation were included in our predictive model and adjusted predicted probabilities for CHDL were calculated for all studied cows. ROC analysis identified an optimum cut-off point for these probabilities and using this cut-off point we could predict CHDL incidence in the subsequent lactation with an overall specificity of 75% and sensitivity of 59%. Using this approach, we would have detected 33% of the studied population as being at risk, eventually identifying 59% of future CHDL cases. Our predictive model could help dairy producers focusing their efforts on CHDL reduction by implementing aggressive preventive measures for high risk cows.  相似文献   

20.
Data on productive and reproductive performance of cows in dual-purpose herds were analyzed to determine the effect of some environmental and genetic factors on saleable milk yield (SMY), lactation length (LL), daily saleable milk per lactation (DMYL), calving interval (CI), and daily saleable milk per calving interval (MYCI) in dual-purpose herds in Yucatan, Mexico. Repeatabilities (re) for these traits were also estimated. Data were obtained from monthly visits to 162 herds from 1996 to 2000. The fixed factors studied were: region (central, eastern and southern), parity number (1 to 6), calving year (1996 to 2000) and calving season (dry, rainy and windy and rainy), genetic group (low- (< 0.50%), medium- (50%) and high- (> 50%) grade cows with European genes). About 2700 to 7700 cows were evaluated for each trait. All factors had significant effects (P < 0.05) on the traits except for region on CI and calving season on DMYL. The overall means for SMY, LL, DMYL, CI, and MYCI were: 1322.3 +/- 80.5 kg, 224.8 +/- 1.3 days, 5.8 +/- 0.1 kg, 555.1 +/- 16.5 days, and 3.0 +/- 0.1 kg, respectively. The re values for SMY, LL, DMYL, CI, and MYCI traits were: 0.19 +/- 0.03, 0.08 +/- 0.04, 0.16 +/- 0.04, 0.00 +/- 0.08, and 0.08 +/- 0.07, respectively. First parity cows had lower SMY, shorter LL, longer CI, and lower MYCI means than cows with more than one parity. Medium grade cows produced more SMY, DMYL and MYCI and had shorter CI than low- and high-grade cows. Therefore, under Yucatan conditions medium-grade cows should be exploited, and more attention should be given to first parity cows in order to improve the productivity in the herd. The relatively high re estimates for SMY and DMYL can be used to calculate most probable producing abilities, in order to identify which cows should be culled.  相似文献   

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