A Tale of Four “Carp”: Invasion Potential and Ecological Niche Modeling

Background

Invasive species are a serious problem in ecosystems, but are difficult to eradicate once established. Predictive methods can be key in determining which areas are of concern regarding invasion by such species to prevent establishment [1]. We assessed the geographic potential of four Eurasian cyprinid fishes (common carp, tench, grass carp, black carp) as invaders in North America via ecological niche modeling (ENM). These “carp” represent four stages of invasion of the continent (a long-established invader with a wide distribution, a long-established invader with a limited distribution, a spreading invader whose distribution is expanding, and a newly introduced potential invader that is not yet established), and as such illustrate the progressive reduction of distributional disequilibrium over the history of species'' invasions.

Methodology/Principal Findings

We used ENM to estimate the potential distributional area for each species in North America using models based on native range distribution data. Environmental data layers for native and introduced ranges were imported from state, national, and international climate and environmental databases. Models were evaluated using independent validation data on native and invaded areas. We calculated omission error for the independent validation data for each species: all native range tests were highly successful (all omission values <7%); invaded-range predictions were predictive for common and grass carp (omission values 8.8 and 19.8%, respectively). Model omission was high for introduced tench populations (54.7%), but the model correctly identified some areas where the species has been successful; distributional predictions for black carp show that large portions of eastern North America are at risk.

Conclusions/Significance

ENMs predicted potential ranges of carp species accurately even in regions where the species have not been present until recently. ENM can forecast species'' potential geographic ranges with reasonable precision and within the short screening time required by proposed U.S. invasive species legislation.     

Global invasion by <Emphasis Type="Italic">Anthidium manicatum</Emphasis> (Linnaeus) (Hymenoptera: Megachilidae): assessing potential distribution in North America and beyond

The wool carder bee, Anthidium manicatum, is the most widely distributed unmanaged bee in the world. It was unintentionally introduced to North America in the late 1960s from Europe, and subsequently, into South America, New Zealand and the Canary Islands. We provide information on the local distribution, seasonal abundance and sex ratio of A. manicatum from samples collected in an intensive two-year survey across Utah, USA. Anthidium manicatum was detected in 10 of the 29 Utah counties, largely in urban and suburban settings. Combining presence-only and MaxEnt background data from literature, museum databases and new records from Utah, we constructed three species distribution models to examine the potential distribution of A. manicatum in its native Eurasian range as well as invaded ranges of North and South America. The A. manicatum model based on locality and background data from the species’ native range predicted 50% of the invasive records associated with high habitat suitability (HS ≥ 0.90). The invasive North American model predicted a much broader distribution of A. manicatum (214% increase); whereas, the South American model predicted a narrower distribution (88% decrease). The poor predictive power of the latter model in estimating suitable habitats in the invasive South American range of A. manicatum suggests that the bee may still be limited by the bioclimatic constraints associated with a novel environment. Estimates of niche similarity (D) between the native and invasive models find that the North America bioclimatic niche is more similar to the bioclimatic niche of the native model (D = 0.78), whereas the bioclimatic niche of the South America invasion is relatively dissimilar (D = 0.69). We discuss the naturalization of A. manicatum in North America, possibly through punctuated dispersal, the probability of suitable habitats across the globe and the synanthropy exhibited by this invasive species.     

Geographic selection bias of occurrence data influences transferability of invasive Hydrilla verticillata distribution models

Due to socioeconomic differences, the accuracy and extent of reporting on the occurrence of native species differs among countries, which can impact the performance of species distribution models. We assessed the importance of geographical biases in occurrence data on model performance using Hydrilla verticillata as a case study. We used Maxent to predict potential North American distribution of the aquatic invasive macrophyte based upon training data from its native range. We produced a model using all available native range occurrence data, then explored the change in model performance produced by omitting subsets of training data based on political boundaries. We also compared those results with models trained on data from which a random sample of occurrence data was omitted from across the native range. Although most models accurately predicted the occurrence of H. verticillata in North America (AUC > 0.7600), data omissions influenced model predictions. Omitting data based on political boundaries resulted in larger shifts in model accuracy than omitting randomly selected occurrence data. For well‐documented species like H. verticillata, missing records from single countries or ecoregions may minimally influence model predictions, but for species with fewer documented occurrences or poorly understood ranges, geographic biases could misguide predictions. Regardless of focal species, we recommend that future species distribution modeling efforts begin with a reflection on potential spatial biases of available occurrence data. Improved biodiversity surveillance and reporting will provide benefit not only in invaded ranges but also within under‐reported and unexplored native ranges.     

Evaluating niche changes during invasion with seasonal models in Capsella bursa-pastoris

Premise

Researchers often use ecological niche models to predict where species might establish and persist under future or novel climate conditions. However, these predictive methods assume species have stable niches across time and space. Furthermore, ignoring the time of occurrence data can obscure important information about species reproduction and ultimately fitness. Here, we assess compare ecological niche models generated from full-year averages to seasonal models.

Methods

In this study, we generate full-year and monthly ecological niche models for Capsella bursa-pastoris in Europe and North America to see if we can detect changes in the seasonal niche of the species after long-distance dispersal.

Results

We find full-year ecological niche models have low transferability across continents and there are continental differences in the climate conditions that influence the distribution of C. bursa-pastoris. Monthly models have greater predictive accuracy than full-year models in cooler seasons, but no monthly models can predict North American summer occurrences very well.

Conclusions

The relative predictive ability of European monthly models compared to North American monthly models suggests a change in the seasonal timing between the native range to the non-native range. These results highlight the utility of ecological niche models at finer temporal scales in predicting species distributions and unmasking subtle patterns of evolution.     

Niche shifts during the global invasion of the Asian tiger mosquito, Aedes albopictus Skuse (Culicidae), revealed by reciprocal distribution models

Aim Niche‐based distribution models are often used to predict the spread of invasive species. These models assume niche conservation during invasion, but invasive species can have different requirements from populations in their native range for many reasons, including niche evolution. I used distribution modelling to investigate niche conservatism for the Asian tiger mosquito (Aedes albopictus Skuse) during its invasion of three continents. I also used this approach to predict areas at risk of invasion from propagules originating from invasive populations. Location Models were created for Southeast Asia, North and South America, and Europe. Methods I used maximum entropy (Maxent ) to create distribution models using occurrence data and 18 environmental datasets. One native model was created for Southeast Asia; this model was projected onto North America, South America and Europe. Three models were created independently for the non‐native ranges and projected onto the native range. Niche overlap between native and non‐native predictions was evaluated by comparing probability surfaces between models using real data and random models generated using a permutation approach. Results The native model failed to predict an entire region of occurrences in South America, approximately 20% of occurrences in North America and nearly all Italian occurrences of A. albopictus. Non‐native models poorly predict the native range, but predict additional areas at risk for invasion globally. Niche overlap metrics indicate that non‐native distributions are more similar to the native niche than a random prediction, but they are not equivalent. Multivariate analyses support modelled differences in niche characteristics among continents, and reveal important variables explaining these differences. Main conclusions The niche of A. albopictus has shifted on invaded continents relative to its native range (Southeast Asia). Statistical comparisons reveal that the niche for introduced distributions is not equivalent to the native niche. Furthermore, reciprocal models highlight the importance of controlling bi‐directional dispersal between native and non‐native distributions.     

Ecological niche variation in the Wilson's warbler Cardellina pusilla complex

Wilson's warbler comprises three subspecies separated into two geographic groups: C. p. pusilla that breeds in eastern North America; and C. p. pileolata and C. p. chryseola that breed in western North America. Given the differences between the groups in genetics, morphology, habitat use, and population decline, we tested for ecological niche similarity in both their breeding and wintering distribution using niche modeling based on temperature and precipitation data. We first conducted an inter‐prediction approach considering the percent of summer and winter localities of one group that are predicted by the potential distribution of the alternate group. We also applied a null model approach that compares self‐predictions and pseudoreplicates of each group to indicate similarity, divergence, or indeterminate niche overlap. Finally, we compared ecological distances between and within groups using the Gower similarity equation. We found that the western group had an ecological niche of broader climatic conditions, while the eastern group had a narrower ecological niche. The inter‐prediction approach showed that, for both summering and wintering ranges, ecological niche models of the western group predicted ～50% of the observed distribution of the eastern group, whereas eastern group models predicted < 18% of the western group distribution. The null model approach found that similarity in ecological niches was indeterminate, possibly due to the large area occupied by the two groups; but it suggests a more restricted set of climatic conditions of the eastern group distribution. However, the Gower coefficients demonstrated that the ecological distance between the two geographic groups was larger than the ecological distance within groups, indicating distinct ecological niches. Overall, our results support the hypothesis that the eastern and western groups of Wilson's warbler are two cryptic species; this should be taken into consideration for future analyses, particularly with respect to vulnerability categorization and conservation efforts.     

Different climatic envelopes among invasive populations may lead to underestimations of current and future biological invasions

Aim We explore the impact of calibrating ecological niche models (ENMs) using (1) native range (NR) data versus (2) entire range (ER) data (native and invasive) on projections of current and future distributions of three Hieracium species. Location H. aurantiacum, H. murorum and H. pilosella are native to Europe and invasive in Australia, New Zealand and North America. Methods Differences among the native and invasive realized climatic niches of each species were quantified. Eight ENMs in BIOMOD were calibrated with (1) NR and (2) ER data. Current European, North American and Australian distributions were projected. Future Australian distributions were modelled using four climate change scenarios for 2030. Results The invasive climatic niche of H. murorum is primarily a subset of that expressed in its native range. Invasive populations of H. aurantiacum and H. pilosella occupy different climatic niches to those realized in their native ranges. Furthermore, geographically separate invasive populations of these two species have distinct climatic niches. ENMs calibrated on the realized niche of native regions projected smaller distributions than models incorporating data from species’ entire ranges, and failed to correctly predict many known invasive populations. Under future climate scenarios, projected distributions decreased by similar percentages, regardless of the data used to calibrate ENMs; however, the overall sizes of projected distributions varied substantially. Main conclusions This study provides quantitative evidence that invasive populations of Hieracium species can occur in areas with different climatic conditions than experienced in their native ranges. For these, and similar species, calibration of ENMs based on NR data only will misrepresent their potential invasive distribution. These errors will propagate when estimating climate change impacts. Thus, incorporating data from species’ entire distributions may result in a more thorough assessment of current and future ranges, and provides a closer approximation of the elusive fundamental niche.     

Conservatism of ecological niche characteristics in North American plant species over the Pleistocene-to-Recent transition

Aim  To provide a test of the conservatism of a species' niche over the last 20,000 years by tracking the distribution of eight pollen taxa relative to climate type as they migrated across eastern North America following the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM).
Location  North America.
Methods  We drew taxon occurrence data from the North American pollen records in the Global Pollen Database, representing eight pollen types – all taxa for which ≥5 distinct geographic occurrences were available in both the present day and at the LGM (21,000 years ago ± 3000 years). These data were incorporated into ecological niche models based on present-day and LGM climatological summaries available from the Palaeoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project to produce predicted potential geographic distributions for each species at present and at the LGM. The output for each time period was projected onto the 'other' time period, and tested using independent known occurrence information from that period.
Results  The result of our analyses was that all species tested showed general conservatism in ecological characteristics over the climate changes associated with the Pleistocene-to-Recent transition.
Main conclusions  This analysis constitutes a further demonstration of general and pervasive conservatism in ecological niche characteristics over moderate periods of time despite profound changes in climate and environmental conditions. As such, our results reinforce the application of ecological niche modelling techniques to the reconstruction of Pleistocene biodiversity distribution patterns, and to project the future potential distribution range of species in the face of global-scale climatic changes.     

American trees shift their niches when invading Western Europe: evaluating invasion risks in a changing climate

Four North American trees are becoming invasive species in Western Europe: Acer negundo, Prunus serotina, Quercus rubra, and Robinia pseudoacacia. However, their present and future potential risks of invasion have not been yet evaluated. Here, we assess niche shifts between the native and invasive ranges and the potential invasion risk of these four trees in Western Europe. We estimated niche conservatism in a multidimensional climate space using niche overlap Schoener's D, niche equivalence, and niche similarity tests. Niche unfilling and expansion were also estimated in analogous and nonanalogous climates. The capacity for predicting the opposite range between the native and invasive areas (transferability) was estimated by calibrating species distribution models (SDMs) on each range separately. Invasion risk was estimated using SDMs calibrated on both ranges and projected for 2050 climatic conditions. Our results showed that native and invasive niches were not equivalent with low niche overlap for all species. However, significant similarity was found between the invasive and native ranges of Q. rubra and R. pseudoacacia. Niche expansion was lower than 15% for all species, whereas unfilling ranged from 7 to 56% when it was measured using the entire climatic space and between 5 and 38% when it was measured using analogous climate only. Transferability was low for all species. SDMs calibrated over both ranges projected high habitat suitability in Western Europe under current and future climates. Thus, the North American and Western European ranges are not interchangeable irrespective of the studied species, suggesting that other environmental and/or biological characteristics are shaping their invasive niches. The current climatic risk of invasion is especially high for R. pseudoacacia and A. negundo. In the future, the highest risks of invasion for all species are located in Central and Northern Europe, whereas the risk is likely to decrease in the Mediterranean basin.     

基于GARP 的加拿大一枝黄花在中国的分布区预测

加拿大一枝黄花( Solidago canadensis) 原产北美, 是在中国大陆危害最严重的入侵植物之一。本研究基于大量已有分布点数据, 使用生态位模型(GARP) 对其在中国的潜在扩散区域进行了预测, 结果表明: 极端低温、年均温对加拿大一枝黄花的分布限制较小, 而坡度、坡向、年降雨量、雨日频率、汇流累积量、水流方向、极端高温和霜日频率对其分布影响显著。加拿大一枝黄花的潜在入侵区远大于目前的实际分布区, 因此仍会继续在中国扩散; 中国中南部和东北部是加拿大一枝黄花最易形成入侵的地区, 应采取措施防止其入侵。     

基于GARP的加拿大一枝黄花在中国的分布区预测

加拿大一枝黄花（Solidago canadensis）原产北美,是在中国大陆危害最严重的入侵植物之一。本研究基于大量已有分布点数据,使用生态位模型（GARP）对其在中国的潜在扩散区域进行了预测,结果表明：极端低温、年均温对加拿大一枝黄花的分布限制较小,而坡度、坡向、年降雨量、雨日频率、汇流累积量、水流方向、极端高温和霜日频率对其分布影响显著。加拿大一枝黄花的潜在入侵区远大于目前的实际分布区,因此仍会继续在中国扩散;中国中南部和东北部是加拿大一枝黄花最易形成入侵的地区,应采取措施防止其入侵。     

Relationships between survival and habitat suitability of semi‐aquatic mammals

Spatial distribution and habitat selection are integral to the study of animal ecology. Habitat selection may optimize the fitness of individuals. Hutchinsonian niche theory posits the fundamental niche of species would support the persistence or growth of populations. Although niche‐based species distribution models (SDMs) and habitat suitability models (HSMs) such as maximum entropy (Maxent) have demonstrated fair to excellent predictive power, few studies have linked the prediction of HSMs to demographic rates. We aimed to test the prediction of Hutchinsonian niche theory that habitat suitability (i.e., likelihood of occurrence) would be positively related to survival of American beaver (Castor canadensis), a North American semi‐aquatic, herbivorous, habitat generalist. We also tested the prediction of ideal free distribution that animal fitness, or its surrogate, is independent of habitat suitability at the equilibrium. We estimated beaver monthly survival probability using the Barker model and radio telemetry data collected in northern Alabama, United States from January 2011 to April 2012. A habitat suitability map was generated with Maxent for the entire study site using landscape variables derived from the 2011 National Land Cover Database (30‐m resolution). We found an inverse relationship between habitat suitability index and beaver survival, contradicting the predictions of niche theory and ideal free distribution. Furthermore, four landscape variables selected by American beaver did not predict survival. The beaver population on our study site has been established for 20 or more years and, subsequently, may be approaching or have reached the carrying capacity. Maxent‐predicted increases in habitat use and subsequent intraspecific competition may have reduced beaver survival. Habitat suitability‐fitness relationships may be complex and, in part, contingent upon local animal abundance. Future studies of mechanistic SDMs incorporating local abundance and demographic rates are needed.     

The metabolic response in fish to mildly elevated water temperature relates to species-dependent muscular concentrations of imidazole compounds and free amino acids

Fish species show distinct differences in their muscular concentrations of imidazoles and free amino acids (FAA). This study was conducted to investigate whether metabolic response to mildly elevated water temperature (MEWT) relates to species-dependent muscular concentrations of imidazoles and FAA. Thirteen carp and 17 Nile tilapia, housed one per aquarium, were randomly assigned to either acclimation (25 °C) or MEWT (30 °C) for 14 days. Main muscular concentrations were histidine (HIS; P<0.001) in carp versus N-α-acetylhistidine (NAH; P<0.001) and taurine (TAU; P=0.001) in tilapia. Although the sum of imidazole (HIS+NAH) and TAU in muscle remained constant over species and temperatures (P>0.05), (NAH+HIS)/TAU ratio was markedly higher in carp versus tilapia, and decreased with MEWT only in carp (P<0.05). Many of the muscular FAA concentrations were higher in carp than in tilapia (P<0.05). Plasma acylcarnitine profile suggested a higher use of AA and fatty acids in carp metabolism (P<0.05). On the contrary, the concentration of 3-hydroxyisovalerylcarnitine, a sink of leucine catabolism, (P=0.009) pointed to avoidance of leucine use in tilapia metabolism. Despite a further increase of plasma longer-chain acylcarnitines in tilapia at MEWT (P=0.009), their corresponding beta-oxidation products (3-hydroxy-longer-chain acylcarnitines) remained constant. Together with higher plasma non-esterified fatty acids (NEFA) in carp (P=0.001), the latter shows that carp, being a fatter fish, more readily mobilises fat than tilapia at MEWT, which coincides with more intensive muscular mobilization of imidazoles. This study demonstrates that fish species differ in their metabolic response to MEWT, which is associated with species-dependent changes in muscle imidazole to taurine ratio.     

Species Richness and Patterns of Invasion in Plants, Birds, and Fishes in the United States*

We quantified broad-scale patterns of species richness and species density (mean # species/km²) for native and non-indigenous plants, birds, and fishes in the continental USA and Hawaii. We hypothesized that the species density of native and non-indigenous taxa would generally decrease in northern latitudes and higher elevations following declines in potential evapotranspiration, mean temperature, and precipitation. County data on plants (n = 3004 counties) and birds (n=3074 counties), and drainage (6 HUC) data on fishes (n = 328 drainages) showed that the densities of native and non-indigenous species were strongly positively correlated for plant species (r = 0.86, P < 0.0001), bird species (r = 0.93, P<0.0001), and fish species (r = 0.41, P<0.0001). Multiple regression models showed that the densities of native plant and bird species could be strongly predicted (adj. R² = 0.66 in both models) at county levels, but fish species densities were less predictable at drainage levels (adj. R² = 0.31, P<0.0001). Similarly, non-indigenous plant and bird species densities were strongly predictable (adj. R² = 0.84 and 0.91 respectively), but non-indigenous fish species density was less predictable (adj. R² = 0.38). County level hotspots of native and non-indigenous plants, birds, and fishes were located in low elevation areas close to the coast with high precipitation and productivity (vegetation carbon). We show that (1) native species richness can be moderately well predicted with abiotic factors; (2) human populations have tended to settle in areas rich in native species; and (3) the richness and density of non-indigenous plant, bird, and fish species can be accurately predicted from biotic and abiotic factors largely because they are positively correlated to native species densities. We conclude that while humans facilitate the initial establishment, invasions of non-indigenous species, the spread and subsequent distributions of non-indigenous species may be controlled largely by environmental factors. The U.S. Government’s right to retain a non-exclusive, royalty-free licence in and to any copyright is acknowledged.     

What is the potential of spread in invasive bryophytes?

Although the number of invasive bryophytes is much lower than that of higher plants, they threaten habitats that are often species rich and of high conservation relevance. Their potential of spread has, however, never been determined. Here, we assess whether the three most invasive bryophyte species shifted their niche during the invasion process and whether the extent of the study area defined to calibrate the model (geographic background, GB) affects model transferability. We then determine whether ecological niche models (ENMs) developed in their native range can be projected in other areas to assess their invasive potential. The macroclimatic niches of Campylopus introflexus, Orthodontium lineare and Lophocolea semiteres were compared in their native range (Southern Hemisphere) and in their invasion range (Northern Hemisphere) using ordination techniques. ENMs from an ensemble model were calibrated in the native range and projected onto the Northern Hemisphere using different GBs. No evidence for niche expansion in the invaded range was found and the species occur in the invaded range under climate conditions that are similar to those in the native range. The performance of the models to predict occurrences in the invaded range increased with the extent of the GB. The potential range of all species included entire regions on continents where they are still absent. The expansion of the investigated species appears to be constrained by climate conditions that are similar to those currently prevailing in their native range, which is consistent with our failure to demonstrate macroclimatic niche shift in the invaded range. The use of large GBs is recommended in such vagile organisms with large, disjunct distributions. The models indicated that invasive bryophyte species might become a threat in central and eastern Europe, North America and eastern Asia if accidentally introduced or naturally dispersed.     

Division within the North American boreal forest: Ecological niche divergence between the Bicknell's Thrush (Catharus bicknelli) and Gray‐cheeked Thrush (C. minimus)

Sister species that diverged in allopatry in similar environments are expected to exhibit niche conservatism. Using ecological niche modeling and a multivariate analysis of climate and habitat data, I test the hypothesis that the Bicknell's Thrush (Catharus bicknelli) and Gray‐cheeked Thrush (C. mimimus), sister species that breed in the North American boreal forest, show niche conservatism. Three tree species that are important components of breeding territories of both thrush species were combined with climatic variables to create niche models consisting of abiotic and biotic components. Abiotic‐only, abiotic+biotic, and biotic‐only models were evaluated using the area under the curve (AUC) criterion. Abiotic+biotic models had higher AUC scores and did not over‐project thrush distributions compared to abiotic‐only or biotic‐only models. From the abiotic+biotic models, I tested for niche conservatism or divergence by accounting for the differences in the availability of niche components by calculating (1) niche overlap from ecological niche models and (2) mean niche differences of environmental values at occurrence points. Niche background similarity tests revealed significant niche divergence in 10 of 12 comparisons, and multivariate tests revealed niche divergence along 2 of 3 niche axes. The Bicknell's Thrush breeds in warmer and wetter regions with a high abundance of balsam fir (Abies balsamea), whereas Gray‐cheeked Thrush often co‐occurs with black spruce (Picea mariana). Niche divergence, rather than conservatism, was the predominant pattern for these species, suggesting that ecological divergence has played a role in the speciation of the Bicknell's Thrush and Gray‐cheeked Thrush. Furthermore, because niche models were improved by the incorporation of biotic variables, this study validates the inclusion of relevant biotic factors in ecological niche modeling to increase model accuracy.     

BIODIVERSITY RESEARCH: Genetic diversity in two introduced biofouling amphipods (Ampithoe valida & Jassa marmorata) along the Pacific North American coast: investigation into molecular identification and cryptic diversity

Aim We investigated patterns of genetic diversity among invasive populations of Ampithoe valida and Jassa marmorata from the Pacific North American coast to assess the accuracy of morphological identification and determine whether or not cryptic diversity and multiple introductions contribute to the contemporary distribution of these species in the region. Location Native range: Atlantic North American coast; Invaded range: Pacific North American coast. Methods We assessed indices of genetic diversity based on DNA sequence data from the mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I (COI) gene, determined the distribution of COI haplotypes among populations in both the invasive and putative native ranges of A. valida and J. marmorata and reconstructed phylogenetic relationships among COI haplotypes using both maximum parsimony and Bayesian approaches. Results Phylogenetic inference indicates that inaccurate species‐level identifications by morphological criteria are common among Jassa specimens. In addition, our data reveal the presence of three well supported but previously unrecognized clades of A. valida among specimens in the north‐eastern Pacific. Different species of Jassa and different genetic lineages of Ampithoe exhibit striking disparity in geographic distribution across the region as well as substantial differences in genetic diversity indices. Main conclusions Molecular genetic methods greatly improve the accuracy and resolution of identifications for invasive benthic marine amphipods at the species level and below. Our data suggest that multiple cryptic introductions of Ampithoe have occurred in the north‐eastern Pacific and highlight uncertainty regarding the origin and invasion histories of both Jassa and Ampithoe species. Additional morphological and genetic analyses are necessary to clarify the taxonomy and native biogeography of both amphipod genera.     

Environmental data sets matter in ecological niche modelling: an example with Solenopsis invicta and Solenopsis richteri

Aim  In response to a recent paper suggesting the failure of ecological niche models to predict between native and introduced distributional areas of fire ants ( Solenopsis invicta ), we sought to assess methodological causes of this failure.
Location  Ecological niche models were developed on the species' native distributional area in South America, and projected globally.
Methods  We developed ecological niche models based on six different environmental data sets, and compared their respective abilities to anticipate the North American invasive distributional area of the species.
Results  We show that models based on the 'bioclimatic variables' of the WorldClim data set indeed fail to predict the full invasive potential of the species, but that models based on four other data sets could predict this potential correctly.
Main conclusions  The difference in predictive abilities appears to centre on the complexity of the environmental variables involved. These results emphasize important influences of environmental data sets on the generality and ability of ecological niche models to anticipate novel phenomena, and offer a simpler explanation for the lack of predictive ability among native and invaded distributional areas than that of niche shifts.     

Phylogenomics,biogeography, and evolution of morphology and ecological niche of the eastern Asian–eastern North American Nyssa (Nyssaceae)

Nyssa (Nyssaceae, Cornales) represents a classical example of the well‐known eastern Asian–eastern North American floristic disjunction. The genus consists of three species in eastern Asia, four species in eastern North America, and one species in Central America. Species of the genus are ecologically important trees in eastern North American and eastern Asian forests. The distribution of living species and a rich fossil record of the genus make it an excellent model for understanding the origin and evolution of the eastern Asian–eastern North American floristic disjunction. However, despite the small number of species, relationships within the genus have remained unclear and have not been elucidated using a molecular approach. Here, we integrate data from 48 nuclear genes, fossils, morphology, and ecological niche to resolve species relationships, elucidate its biogeographical history, and investigate the evolution of morphology and ecological niches, aiming at a better understanding of the well‐known EA–ENA floristic disjunction. Results showed that the Central American (CAM) Nyssa talamancana was sister to the remaining species, which were divided among three, rapidly diversified subclades. Estimated divergence times and biogeographical history suggested that Nyssa had an ancestral range in Eurasia and western North America in the late Paleocene. The rapid diversification occurred in the early Eocene, followed by multiple dispersals between and within the Erasian and North American continents. The genus experienced two major episodes of extinction in the early Oligocene and end of Neogene, respectively. The Central American N. talamancana represents a relic lineage of the boreotropical flora in the Paleocene/Eocene boundary that once diversified in western North America. The results supported the importance of both the North Atlantic land bridge and the Bering land bridge (BLB) for the Paleogene dispersals of Nyssa and the Neogene dispersals, respectively, as well as the role of Central America as refugia of the Paleogene flora. The total‐evidence‐based dated phylogeny suggested that the pattern of macroevolution of Nyssa coincided with paleoclimatic changes. We found a number of evolutionary changes in morphology (including wood anatomy and leaf traits) and ecological niches (precipitation and temperature) between the EA–ENA disjunct, supporting the ecological selection driving trait evolutions after geographic isolation. We also demonstrated challenges in phylogenomic studies of lineages with rapid diversification histories. The concatenation of gene data can lead to inference of strongly supported relationships incongruent with the species tree. However, conflicts in gene genealogies did not seem to impose a strong effect on divergence time dating in our case. Furthermore, we demonstrated that rapid diversification events may not be recovered in the divergence time dating analysis using BEAST if critical fossil constraints of the relevant nodes are not available. Our study provides an example of complex bidirectional exchanges of plants between Eurasia and North America in the Paleogene, but “out of Asia” migrations in the Neogene, to explain the present disjunct distribution of Nyssa in EA and ENA.     

Evolutionary history of the scorpionfly Dicerapanorpa magna (Mecoptera,Panorpidae)

Climate changes can have fundamental impacts on the distributional patterns of montane species, and range shifts frequently lead to allopatric divergence followed by the establishment of secondary contact zones. Many European and North American organisms have retreated to southern refugia during glacial periods and colonized northward during postglacial periods, but little is known about the evolutionary response of cold‐adapted insects to Pleistocene climate changes in eastern Asia. The scorpionfly Dicerapanorpa magna (Chou), with cold temperate habitat preference and weak dispersal ability, provides a good model system to explore how climate changes have influenced the distribution and divergence of cold‐adapted insects in eastern Asia. This study reconstructed the demographic dynamics and evolutionary history of D. magna with phylogeographic approaches, and predicted the species’ suitable areas under the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and current scenarios with the ecological niche modelling analysis. The mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit I resolved three phylogenetic lineages in D. magna dating back to Pleistocene, corresponding well with the geographically isolated Qinling, Bashan and Minshan Mountains. The ecological niche modelling recovered the suitable habitats for D. magna were the Qinling and Bashan Mountains under LGM and current conditions. The three lineages of D. magna might be in a process of incipient speciation, and likely derived their current distribution from separate glacial origins, followed by vicariance and divergence.